Ukraine daily update April 11, 2025

Now I have learned that it was Japan (and according to the thread on johanno1.se, maybe even just institutions) that couldn’t handle Trump’s antics and they were also the reason Trump backed down. Japan holds 10% of 24% of US debt, and when some of it was sold, the bond market risked going up in flames, forcing Trump to back down.

We wrote a while ago that this kind of escalation always has too many unknown outcomes, and this must have been absolutely optimal – that it was Japan in some form?

If Trump was forced to end his crusade for all power to the USA right after someone holding 2.4% of their debt started selling a little bit, then Trump doesn’t have much freedom of action from now on 😁

Now onto the next step – if you remember, we usually say that what China chooses to do will determine whether we enter a global conflict or not.

Trump has kept the sky-high tariffs against them, as well as the extra fees for packages and port calls – along with quite a few direct insults. He clarified yesterday that there are 145% tariffs against China, and the US stock markets plummeted again.

So, by definition, the trade war is still fully underway even though everyone has taken a breather and started to relax.

And today is also Friday happy hour around 6:00:01, so I will have several drinks and relax on johanno1.se, which you should do too.

I’m just saying, don’t miss out, as Ray Liotta is joining today and will chug a bottle of beer on live camera and take two snus 🤣

After Japan, it’s China that holds a mountain of USD, and they haven’t exactly received a receipt confirming that the pile has value 🧐

At least they seem to have come out in the media and said that they will take this fight straight into it (Chinese) tiles, they won’t back down an inch.

Because if China starts selling, then whoever it was in Japan will be forced to sell, and then it’s on again, right?

And everyone now knows how sensitive the bond market was, and how sensitive it is for Trump that he hesitates?

If I believe that the US planned to take an initial hit and then transfer the risk to others, then the same must apply to China as well, right?

They showed during COVID that they think exactly like that, and if they have been shaken on the lower deck by all of this (which we don’t know), it would be smart business to bring the US down with them, wouldn’t it?

Have we returned to the old delightful game of TERROR BALANCE, but where thermonuclear nuclear weapons have been replaced by those who hold US national debt and vice versa?

In any case, the EU shouldn’t be shedding tears over its fate that China and the US will annihilate each other, even if there are ripple effects from it – they say never miss out on a good crisis, right?

I have long had the idea that the next world war will be fought in Asia – maybe it was Nostradamus who told Dengamle, who revealed it to me while drunk on some early Monday morning?

Now onto the next sore spot, Russia – they want to collapse the EU economically to prevent us from supporting Ukraine, just as we are trying to collapse them economically so that they tire of waging a war of extermination.

Russia can’t do much beyond the gas weapon and sabotage, other than creating a black swan in the form of a direct act of war.

Trump has “paused tariffs for 90 days,” which in reality means that his tariff war is presumably over?

Who believes that in 90 days he will restart everything, Japan will start selling again, the bond market will shake, and he will have to back down again and declare a new victory?

A large part of Trump’s escalation for 2025 is thus eliminated, maybe Iran remains, but the question is whether he wants to start it when the amplifier has collapsed?

That leaves RU’s own escalation, which is SÖ Estonia and/or maybe Svalbard – but the value or multiplier of that escalation only applies if Trump simultaneously applies pressure from his side, which he no longer does – because then the bond market in the US crashes 😁

If Ukraine can start ramping up its offensive operations seriously, it would have another cooling effect on Putin’s Estonian campaign.

Before I switched to Trump, we used to say that this war will be decided in 2025.

Ukraine had plans for a violent offensive in 2024, but the USA stopped it as usual, I thought they might strike during 2024, but of course that didn’t happen.

Just because Ukraine has been lying low doesn’t mean they need to stay low – the deliveries of offensive equipment have been absolutely massive since the fall of 2024.

Now, the “peace plan” must logically be like a dried and salted herring fin in gray water?

No one really believes that Trump will bother to mediate peace in Ukraine beyond his smash-and-grab attempt, which was bolder than what Putin attempted, right?

To move forward in the chain of events negative for the USA and Russia, Ukraine needs to increase the pressure because they are the only ones who can directly reach Russia with force.

And you don’t increase pressure by not bombing anything and not going on the offensive 😶

Which then leads us to the conclusion that Ukraine’s drone mats will spread over Russia, and they will continue offensive ground operations.

Because now the EU presumably wants the same as Ukraine, and the US’s inhibiting effect has been rounded thanks to Trump making a total fool of himself in front of everyone – the art of the deal turned into pump-and-dump of the US stock market and gross market manipulation 🤣

Now there are warnings of a Russian offensive from several directions, Ukraine has left Kursk, RU is preparing 150,000 troops for its Baltic operation according to Ukraine – IF all of this is true, RU has managed to build up offensive capacity right in the middle of their own offensive, and it has been an offensive where they have crawled forward everywhere for an extremely long time.

I was pretty sure that RU would hit a low point after Trump took office – and that Putin needed a ceasefire, but that doesn’t seem to be the case, and it surprises me a little. The only ones really warning about RU’s offensive capacity in the near future are Ukraine, others talk about at least 2-3 years.

Then there are warnings that RU will deploy 600,000 troops against Finland and the Baltics, but apparently that requires peace and quiet in Ukraine for that rearrangement to be realized.

So it’s time for the EU to take this seriously.

The latest UA offensive operations since February 6 have felt a bit like Rourke’s Drift 2025 (so you have to replace some of the characters) – composite Ukrainian battalion groups cutting through areas where several Russian brigades are supposed to be on defense on paper, with task forces behind them from tank brigades and elite units like Spetsnaz.

In spring 2023, their offensive operations were met with resistance that caused them to get stuck and start taking losses – Ahkp, FAB, drones hammered them, they got caught in minefields, and even though they suffered proportionally fewer losses, they made it through.

Now it is my clear opinion that they lay drone cover and EW everywhere and then clean up in the target area by defeating the red with relatively small losses. Mirage is lurking in the background, and this way they can probably continue for a long time.

We know from before that UA has learned to break through the defense lines, but here you have film evidence at least.

UA bryter igenom i Belgorod (ej idag)

Johan No.1 (@johanno1.bsky.social) 2025-04-09T17:38:17.383Z

Imagine if the EU does everything right from now on.

-EU troops on the left side of the Dnieper so a flood of Ukrainian shooters is unleashed.

-Let Ukraine allow Belarus to have its popular revolution.

-Seize the opportunity with Kaliningrad and agree on a demilitarized zone.

-Let Ukraine drive out Russia.

-Let Ukraine target any goals in Russia they want.

-Let Ukraine persuade Russia to turn inwards.

There is a bit more behind the word “let” but it is for a good cause and ok 😀

We straighten out our eastern border for all future and Russia is divided into about ten new countries and becomes a smaller future threat.

What a conclusion it would be to our current global conflict for the EU’s part, and then maybe we manage to find a balance with China and make significant strides in Africa with fair trade agreements?

I have a little theory that the USA should also become several independent countries and maybe China too, but I haven’t fully thought this through yet. When a federal central power starts seeing themselves as gods and everyone else as milking cows, maybe it’s time to scale back a bit on their job description?

Something entirely new that has never existed before, like “Confederate States of America” which are loosely assembled states that have grown tired of federal power – do you think something like that could happen peacefully?

The EU is so new that we haven’t reached that point, but we should have less supremacy and more national self-determination, absolutely.

Everything goes in waves, and Europe went from principalities to nation-states to empires, down to countries, and now we are in the EU again – nothing is ever constant, that should be the conclusion. My theory on why it’s never constant is that the groups in power are constantly thinking about how to gain more power and deceive the citizens – because the only constant in all these different constellations has been the citizens striving on, and they have rarely had it better despite all promises to the contrary 😀

So if China and the USA hammer each other enough, maybe we’ll end up there with both?

Then DAMN it’s time for Europe to take over the world, we start with fair trade agreements in Africa, South America, and Asia and solve the labor issue, and then we’ll see where it leads, I think 🧐

It’s actually been a tough week, and a Friday binge is needed to clear all thoughts about everything.

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Swedish rescuers, whom I have been in contact with, operate quietly and deliver supplies to Ukraine.


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221 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update April 11, 2025”

  1. Good morning!
    Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-04-11:

    1210 KIA
    1 Tank
    15 APVs
    61 Artillery systems
    1 MLRS
    122 UAVs
    165 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
    2 Special equipment

    Glory to Ukraine!

     

  2. AFU: “In total, 148 combat clashes were recorded for yesterday.
    The enemy launched two missiles and 106 aviation strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, used three missiles and dropped 165 controlled bombs. In addition, he carried out about six thousand shells, 96 of them from reactive systems of salvage fire, and deployed 2,388 kamikaze drones for impact.”
  3. “The U.K. and Norway are set to provide a 450 million pound ($585 million) military aid package to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on April 10. The package includes funding for radar systems, anti-tank mines, and hundreds of thousands of drones.”

  4. Can’t get the numbers together, decreasing to 51.4 tons and then another 0.5%, to 61.2 million tons? Shouldn’t it be less than 51.4 left and not more? At least it is decreasing!

    Machine Translated:
    “Russia’s largest cement producers are preparing for a production decline due to construction cutbacks
    In Russia, cement production will decrease within two years due to the reduction in residential construction and the completion of major infrastructure projects. In 2025, it will decrease by 7.5% annually, to 51.4 million tons, and in 2026, by an additional 0.5%, to 61.2 million tons.”
    https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/04/09/krupneishie-proizvoditeli-tsementa-v-rossii-prigotovilis-k-padeniyu-proizvodstva-iz-za-sokrascheniya-stroitelstva-a160491

    1. Westley Richard

      The first figure should probably be 61.4 million tons, then it matches the rest in the article.
      Only defense is being built nowadays, the population is decreasing so no new housing is needed, trucks have been replaced by donkeys so the load capacity on bridges can be minimized. Exports are decreasing so no new ports are needed.

  5. I saw that ERIK 14 had a theory. The other day she said it as it was, that Russian robots hit civilian targets in Ukraine.
    Otherwise, the USA has officially stopped mentioning Russia in these contexts.

    “US Ambassador to Ukraine leaves her post

    Bridget Brink, the US Ambassador to Ukraine for the past three years, is leaving her post prematurely. This is reported by American media.

    She was appointed by Joe Biden and has been a strong advocate of US military support for Ukraine. The reason for her early departure is unclear, as well as who will replace her.”
    https://omni.se/usa-s-ambassador-i-ukraina-lamnar-sin-post/a/3MOekd

    1. Is it rather the norm than anything unusual for new presidents to replace ambassadors? Is it only us in Sweden and possibly Finland who have non-political social democratic officials?

  6. “The American inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.4 percent on an annual basis in March, which made Donald Trump rejoice in posts on Truth Social.

    “It’s as ridiculous as it is predictable that the administration presents the March figures in this way,” writes Bloomberg’s Jonathan Levin, referring to the expected impact of trade policy on prices.

    Furthermore, the report shows that American households are starting to cut back on their discretionary purchases.”

  7. On Thursday, around 30 countries in the British-led “coalition of volunteers” held their first meeting at the defense minister level.

    The purpose was to outline a plan for how the countries will maintain a peace agreement in Ukraine – but such a thing seems increasingly unlikely, writes Politico.

    The fighting continues, support from the USA is wavering, and according to Ukraine, Russia is preparing for a new offensive in the coming weeks, writes AP.

  8. The federal judge who wanted to stop the deportations was overridden by the Supreme Court, which gave Trump the green light to use the old war law.
    Ironically, they have now decided that one of the deportees should be brought back home because it was a mistake. The person’s wife, among others, has fought hard for her husband and received a lot of attention.
    The question is whether there are more who should not have been deported when it happened arbitrarily without any review.

    “The US Supreme Court now rules that the American government must bring back home the Salvadoran migrant who was mistakenly deported to prison in El Salvador, according to American media.”

  9. Interesting to see if the dollar will continue to decline.

    “The American dollar falls to a six-month low on Friday morning, writes Bloomberg. The news agency calls the currency the latest victim in this week’s turbulence.

    – There is clearly an outflow from American assets. A falling currency and bond market is never a good sign, says Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda to CNBC.

    In the morning, one dollar costs 9.77 kronor. It is the lowest level in nearly 3 years.”
    https://omni.se/dollarn-nasta-offer-utvandring-fran-usa/a/bm26xk

     

    1. I would think that it continues. Their government bonds may also continue to suffer, i.e. they have to pay higher interest rates to issue new ones, even if no one starts panic selling.

      It costs money to go from wanting to be a hub for trade and security and creating a dense network of financial relationships, not least, to tearing down the network, insulting and threatening former allies, and undermining their security by cozying up to their enemy.

    1. “A brilliant game, straight out of Donald Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal,'” said Bill Ackman according to DN, who describes Trump as more honest: “It started to feel a bit shaky. I followed the bond markets.”

    1. Important post – indeed. It shows that the USA also has its foolishness, just like the plastic caps in the EU. The meme where SpaceX is launching a rocket on one side of the image under the heading USA and on the other side of the image is a bottle with a nailed plastic cap adorned with the heading EU can just as well be changed to an American shower nozzle (both having such a rule and issuing a presidential order to stop it is foolishness).

    2. johanno.1337

      The rules limited showers to barely 10 liters per minute, in case anyone is wondering. Trump gets properly wet in a significantly shorter time than he claims, but there is nothing new about his statements.

  10. Pokrovsk up again, Lyman back again.
    Operational information as of 08.00 11.04.2025 on the Russian invasion
     
    In total, 148 combat engagements were recorded yesterday.
     
    #Kharkiv 4
    #Kupyansk 5
    #Lyman 13↘️💥
    #Siverskyi 8
    #Kramatorsk 3
    #Toretsk 22💥
    #Pokrovsk 53↗️💥💥💥
    #Novopavlivka 3
    #Huliaipil 3
    #Prydniprovsky 2
    #Kursk 24💥
     
    The AFRF🇷🇺 attacked in the Lyman sector 13 times. They tried to advance near the settlements of Nadiya, Nove, Yampolivka and in the directions of Torske, Dronivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka.

     
    In the Toretsk sector, AFRF🇷🇺 made 22 attacks in the direction of Diliyivka and in the areas of Druzhba and Toretsk.

     
    In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 stopped 53 assault and offensive actions of the AFRF🇷🇺 in the directions of Romanivka, Oleksandropol, Serhiivka, Kotlyarivka and near Kalynove, Sribne, Tarasivka, Sukhoi Balka, Valentynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka and Bohdanivka.

     
    In the operational zone in the Kursk region, 24 combat engagements of varying intensity took place yesterday. In addition, the AFRF🇷🇺 launched 45 air strikes using 62 guided aerial bombs, and fired 372 artillery shells at the positions of troops of the AFU🇺🇦 and settlements, including 12 from MLRS.

     
    Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces 🇺🇦 hit 13 areas of concentration of personnel and equipment, two artillery units and an air defense facility of the Russian invaders.

    1. Westley Richard

      What the heck, it’s usually penguins or dog and cat videos that I suspect Johan’s kids have contributed. And then you come with an Andrew Tate copy who borrowed Putin’s table.
      But the music was good 😀

  11. I wonder how many American treasury bonds China holds? If it’s a lot, the US is in a damn tough spot, as China can sell off and really shake the American economy.

    Considering possible interest rate hikes, the US national debt is so insanely large (+120% I believe) that the question is whether the US might go bankrupt?

    1. Nah. I’m no expert on bonds, but China probably has a claim on the USA that can be sold. The USA pays interest on the paper, which should be redeemed by the USA at the capital amount once depending on the term. But what is the claim worth? Maybe China sells its claim for half the price and then at least gets something back. Hmmm.

      1. The problem for the USA is likely that their government bonds are decreasing in value, which means they will need to pay higher interest rates when issuing new ones. Not an ideal situation when they have a growing budget deficit.

    2. These may not be the most current figures, but here are the largest ones (numbers are in billion USD):

      EU countries combined: ~1,600
      Japan: 1,080
      China: 760
      United Kingdom: 740
      Cayman Islands: 400
      Canada: 375
      Switzerland: 300

      Since Trump took a tough stance towards Mexico, it may also be interesting to know that they have 47 billion USD. That is approximately 10% of the value they export to the USA. (25% tariffs remain for them despite the 90-day pause, the same goes for Canada).

    3. Westley Richard

      Here is an analysis that suggests that this would cause a global recession if they dumped. But if Trump pressures China enough to push them into a deep recession, they would do it to drag the USA down with them. China holding so many American bonds is a way to keep its currency low artificially, if they were to switch to YUAN the value would increase and they would have difficulty selling their goods.
      The USA usually accuses China of devaluing its currency, but it does so by buying American securities, a lose-lose situation for the USA.

      https://youtu.be/F_erAoFhCws?si=9606aqurNVwdVfrP

    4. The total national debt is now at 36.5 trillion USD (their GDP in 2024 was 28.4 trillion USD).
      8.5 trillion (~30%) of that national debt is held by foreign investors.

      The USA’s government revenue is barely 5 trillion USD (and the deficit in the latest budget year was ~1.8).

      If everyone were to get tired of Trump’s nonsense and agree not to renew any bonds, they would be in a bit of a tight spot. However, it will still take many years before it has full effect as these are often long terms.

      It’s hardly possible to sell them if everyone agrees not to, because no one will buy, except possibly some in the USA who trust they will get their money back.

      1. An important addition is that the USA also has a debt to all citizens in the form of social security, medicare, etc. The keyword is “unfunded liabilities” and amounts to a staggering 200 trillion USD (present value, i.e. future expenses recalculated to today). Due to the age structure and boomers, among other things, it is unclear how it will be paid. Dare we guess that Trump’s core supporters will be affected?

  12. Coalition of the willing:  
     
    Troops deployed to Ukraine to monitor a potential ceasefire as part of the “coalition of the willing” will not act as traditional peacekeepers, but as a support to Ukraine’s own forces, U.K. Defense Minister John Healy said on April 10.
     
    ‘Not a peacekeeping force’ — UK defense minister clarifies role of coalition troops after summit. “This is not a peacekeeping force that will separate the currently warring sides down the line of contact,” U.K. Defense Minister John Healy said after a “coalition of the willing” meeting in Brussels on April 10.  
     
    https://kyivindependent.com/not-a-peacekeeping-force-uk-defense-minister-clarifies-role-of-coalition-troops-after-summit/

    1. Westley Richard

      It is probably also aimed at the USA, if you stop supporting at a ceasefire, we will go in hard with the risk of the war escalating and then the bonds of friendship will be tested.

    2. johanno.1337

      Yes, let’s not feed the narrative that this would be some kind of conflict in preschool that needs to be handled by the adults. It is Ukraine that should receive help against the attacker.

  13. Ukraine support:

     

    The UK 🇬🇧 and Norway 🇳🇴 are set to provide $585 million in joint military support to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. The U.K. and Norway are set to provide a 450 million pound ($585 million) military aid package to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on April 10.

     

    https://kyivindependent.com/uk-and-norway-to-provide-585-million-in-joint-military-support-to-ukraine-bloomberg-reports/

     

    EU 🇪🇺 to support Ukraine’s defense industry with over $2 billion from Russian assets.About $1.1 billion will directly support Ukraine’s defense industry following the “Danish model,” the EU’s ambassador to Ukraine announced.

     

    https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-support-ukraine-defense-with-2-billion-from-russian-assets/

     

  14. EmigrantJohan

    This should primarily be a Ukraine blog, but considering Trump and what is happening and the impact on the world, but I consider myself “knowledgeable” in economics and what I believe will happen – so I share, however in a separate post.

    Ukraine (UA)
    1. Heard an interesting podcast yesterday on Blomgren and Gröning, it was an interview with David Sundin? from Cairo futures, a look into the future. The subject itself is interesting but has little impact on UA here and now. What can, however, affect UA is that according to Blomgren, one thing is very underreported in Western media, the role of Islam in the totalitarian countries. The young people have, like us in the Christian world 50? years ago, stopped going to mosques, a kind of silent protest against the regime. If we imagine that the young people have stopped / go much less to mosques, the regime’s power should reasonably have decreased, we have a Russia with fewer and fewer economic resources – how long will / can the regime in Iran provide Shahed drones? What impact does it have on Russia and the security situation in other Islamic regions in Russia, such as Chechnya and the other powder kegs in Russia?

    2. Now if Chinese soldiers have started fighting in UA, how long will it take before the USA considers this a proxy war against China and will provide completely different weapons to UA? After all, no Americans have fallen under American command (except volunteers) and can the enemy (China) be fought with only USD, isn’t that a win?

    1. Westley Richard

      Do not fundamental religious interpretation often go hand in hand with education and prosperity, much like childbirth? Religion is rarely a grassroots movement but rather very top-down. In some countries like Iran, Gaza, the population is suppressed with religious motives, while in other countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, religion is used to secure power but also allows for some freedom as long as one follows the religious commandments, even if slowly realizing that they must keep up with development. The Egyptian military keeps the mullahs on a tight leash and does not want the Muslim Brotherhood to grow too much, preferring to move westward.

      1. EmigrantJohan

        Just – if one were to make a “silent” protest and stop going to mosques, how does the leadership handle it? When does it risk becoming a grassroots movement that protests and demands change?

        1. Westley Richard

          Iran has often underestimated these “grassroots movements” so many countries in the Middle East probably want them put in their place so they can focus on their youth to ensure they receive just the right amount of religious education. But with increased prosperity, religion becomes more of a tradition than something vital to life.

    2. I have followed Iran a bit because they were the cradle of extreme political Islam, and there is a silent revolution happening among the citizens.

      50,000 mosques have closed because no one showed up for Friday prayers, and young people have a challenge on social media to knock the turbans off the priests (the mullahs?).

      In the bigger picture, political extreme Islam also needs to be pushed back because it is on a collision course with everything.

  15. Westley Richard

    Sweden foots the bill to send life-saving Danish fishing nets to Ukraine: “I find that almost embarrassing”
     

    In Ukraine, Danish fishing nets save many lives. Ukrainian soldiers have found a highly effective defense against Russian drone attacks, and this is where used fishing nets from the Danish west coast come into play, writes Politiken. As one of the few, the nets are strong enough to catch even the heavy bombs. Since December, a small group of dockworkers and trawl binders from Thyborøn have delivered 450 tons of old fishing nets, and much more can be sent, but it is currently being hindered by rigid EU regulations.

    https://politiken.dk/danmark/art10354634/Sverige-tager-regningen-for-at-f%C3%A5-sendt-livsvigtigt-dansk-fiskenet-til-Ukraine-%C2%BBDet-synes-jeg-n%C3%A6rmest-er-pinligt%C2%AB

     

    https://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/danmark/vestjysk-fiskenet-redder-ukrainske-liv-det-greb-en-russisk-granat-over-hovedet-paa-ham

    If anyone feels like going to Thyborøn to help out, I can warn that they have a large fishmeal factory and you can smell the stench long before you enter the town. My shortest customer visit ever, I just wanted to get out of there 🤢🤮

     

    1. Oh damn! I can imagine that it smells something like a fish sauce factory that we passed several times when we were in Thailand.

      Appalling!

      1. Come to think of it, in Thyborøn there is also a factory that produces fertilizers, they could send some to UA so they can manufacture explosives.

  16. EmigrantJohan

    Comment 2 regarding what can happen in the USA
    Things have started to move in the bond market. The bond market is the elephant in the room compared to the stock market and is significantly larger. Also, consider that banks are usually leveraged 20-25 times compared to their equity + hold enormous derivatives, anyone remember Lehman :-)?

    I believe things will calm down now, I don’t think China would benefit from selling off its US Treasury bonds. After all, the value of these bonds could end up being zero. Sure, significant damage could be done to the USA, but the Fed could come and save the day through QE. What I do believe, however, is that the Fed will sooner or later be forced into Yield control – simply meaning that long-term bonds will not be openly traded on the market but centrally determined by the Fed, including the interest rate. Maybe not tomorrow, but one day it will happen, the interest costs for the USA (but especially for other countries like the PIGS) are skyrocketing and becoming unsustainable in the long run.

    My other point concerns the politically sensitive: Trump has, if I’m not mistaken, gone on his social media platform and recommended buying stocks a couple of hours before the tariff announcements were made. Two Democratic senators have already accused him of leaking sensitive information. Looking at the broader picture, a large part of Trump’s economic advisors are old hedge/PE/VC/bank people. People who, I would assume, are money-hungry? Show of hands for those who don’t believe that some/most of them have exploited their knowledge and sold/bought stocks/financial positions to benefit themselves? How will this affect the trust in the administration when it’s already been damaged?

    Lastly – I listened to a podcast “We study billionaires,” episode BTC229 which was about “Market chaos, Trump tariffs, and Bitcoin. I would like to hear an American perspective on the situation. I think it was a thought-provoking podcast to listen to. They made an analogy between China – USA with 2 people where one person provides food (person A) and in return receives handwritten papers on an asset (from person B). Person A, who provides food, gradually starts expanding their offerings and not only provides food but later also cooked food, drinks, and maybe even beer/wine/spirits (for example, for Friday night drinks). 40 years have passed, and person B now thinks it’s unfair that person A doesn’t want person B’s things and starts protesting. Who do you think has more power, the person who can produce food and drinks or the person who has only lived on printing paper notes?

    In scenario 2, they made the analogy that now person B has gone out and complained about not just one person but 5 people who not only provide food but also other things like heat, transportation. The risk is that if person B starts complaining about all of them at once, the other 5 will probably start
    1) grouping and talking together/agreeing 2) ignoring person B and stop selling things.

    A better strategy would have been for B to only go after one person, person A (here: China). There is a high risk that trying to fight too many “wars”/conflicts at the same time will just end up in chaos. Notice how Trump has targeted Europe, Canada, Mexico, China, and the rest of the world – not only in trade but also in security policies and territorial control.

    I find it hard to see that this will be successful, also note that there is an election in 1.5 years so the risk/opportunity is high that the Trump administration will become a lame “duck” after that.

    1. Westley Richard

      Companies want clear rules of the game, it is vital for their planning and continued investments. Many companies are probably considering whether to continue in the American market. It is not possible to move production from China to country X as that country risks facing gigantic tariffs once the production has been moved there.
      Many companies will surely move their production to the USA, but we will probably also see a new buying pattern. The USA has duty-free status for goods costing under 800 dollars, as long as they do not come from China. We will probably see an increased direct sales from other low-cost countries, it is still Nike shoes but they are shipped from country X.

  17. Interesting thoughts!
    Well, I also don’t believe that selling off government bonds in larger quantities is a successful solution, except perhaps as a gesture; otherwise, it will likely end with interest rate hikes that will ultimately affect everyone.

    I agree with you that Trump’s tariffs and other policies are unlikely to succeed, and the USA and Trump himself will probably be the biggest losers.

    What one is a little afraid of is what Trump might cause when he realizes how badly things are going. For example, a war would shift the focus elsewhere and could also be used as a scapegoat for the poor economy. Or there could be some other actions. I don’t think he will sit idly by and accept defeat; he has shown that before.

  18. Crude Oil is now at 59.8 USD, just slightly higher than when it was at its lowest, Russia’s oil exports continue to suffer!
    Was afraid it would rise.

  19. Another one getting fired, the USA is starting to increasingly resemble a dictatorship.

    “The American defense agency Pentagon is firing Susannah Meyers, commander at the airbase in Pituffik, Greenland.
    According to the independent site Military.com, Meyers is said to have sent an email to her staff distancing herself from Vice President JD Vance’s comments during his visit to the island.
    The Pentagon has not disclosed the reason for Meyers’ dismissal but states that “actions undermining the chain of command or President Trump’s agenda will not be tolerated”.”

    1. The Democrats in the USA have excelled in appointing women as leaders in male-dominated fields such as defense, police, and firefighting. Just for the sake of it. Sweden has, of course, been lagging behind. It has been so nice to challenge notions of what is traditionally feminine and masculine. It can work in good times. But in bad times, even women want male brigade leaders.

      1. Är ju nog lojalitet som betyder mest för Tr, så efterom hon visat sej vara en tänkande varelse, och dessutom kvinna, så måste hon bytas ut. 
        Har svårt att tänka mej att hon fått posten för att hon är kvinna, är ganska säker på att tills nu har höga militärer anställts på sina meriter. Nu däremot är det lojalitet som betyder mest.
        Likadant är det ju i landet i öster, vilket är en bidragande orsak till att de misslyckas när de hamnar på ett riktigt slagfält. Endast med en kuvad och brutaliserad befolkning kan de ta sej framåt.

  20. “Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff has landed in Russia, according to state-owned Russian media reports cited by AFP.

    Earlier on Friday, Axios reported, citing sources with insight, that Witkoff is set to meet with Russian President Putin. According to information provided to the site, Trump is considering new sanctions against Russia if no agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached by the end of April.”

  21. “JP Morgan’s chief strategist Michael Cembalest states that he is holding back parts of his criticism of the US trade policy.

    – I have to consider how my statements can affect the bank and my colleagues, in a time when people are held accountable for their opinions and what they say, said the Wall Street veteran in a webinar on Monday according to Reuters.

    The statement comes at a time when the Trump administration is taking action against companies that question its policies, the news agency writes.”

  22. “The Stockholm Stock Exchange turns sharply downwards

    Even on the continent, the stock exchanges turn downwards after China’s response.

    – The repeated changes in President Trump’s tariff stance have undermined investors’ confidence in the American government and economy, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s strategist Carol Kong to Bloomberg.”

  23. “Whatever the White House claims, it was not foreign leaders ‘kissing Donald Trump’s ass’ that made him back down from his extensive tariff package. This is stated by Alexander Hurst in The Guardian.

    ‘It was because investors and money from all over the world were fleeing anything related to the USA,’ he writes, noting that Europe tends to overestimate the power of the USA and underestimate its own ability to pressure its unpredictable ally.”

  24. “Estonia to send 10,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammo & 750,000 food rations to Ukraine, says Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. He also announced that he would meet with Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov and discuss the needs of the Ukrainian army.”

  25. Estoniska myndigheter grep en rysk “skuggflotta” oljetanker nära ön Aegna på fredagen, enligt ERR. Fartyget saknade flaggstat, vilket gjorde det olagligt att verka i internationella vatten.

  26. Russia asks US to lift sanctions on its largest airline. Aeroflot has been banned from U.S. and EU airspace and cut off from critical aviation supplies since 2022.

  27. Germany will deliver four more IRIS-T air defense systems with missiles, along with 30 additional Patriot missiles, says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, per The Guardian.

  28. “So tired of winning. China’s rare earth export restrictions threaten U.S. plans for a 6th-gen fighter jet. The move comes after Trump started imposing tariffs, risking delays to Boeing’s F-47 program. Beijing controls 90% of global rare earth supply.”

  29. It’s been a long time since Medvedev threatened with nuclear weapons? Has he fallen out of a window or something?
    Otherwise, maybe we should invite him to Friday drinks? 😂

  30. As we have already discussed. China can use government bonds as a weapon, but the risk is high that it will backfire when interest rates rise.

    “China holds a weapon that is more powerful in the escalating trade war with the USA than increased tariffs, writes SvD’s Johan Carlström in an analysis. It is about the large Chinese holdings of US government bonds.

    If China were to dump its holdings, it would result in bond yields skyrocketing, making it more expensive for the USA to borrow money and causing the dollar to weaken further. But if the bond weapon is fired, not only the USA will be affected but also the rest of the world – including China, explains Carlström.”

      1. The smartest thing is probably to sell off a small stake, just to signal.

        Then they will probably expire continuously, maybe it’s enough to announce that they do not intend to buy any new ones?

  31. I have found a small Carrefour on the way home so you don’t have to take detours in this traffic jam – perfect for fancier occasions like Friday binge drinking that requires a step up from home-brewed mash 👍

  32. I have to remind you of one thing – China and Russia control many countries in Africa and Asia, and possibly also South America through BRICS.

    I believe a raw material embargo is never far away, and at least the USA probably sees that as an act of war, right?

    1. Where has the positive-positive Johan gone? Nowadays, it seems like all your roads lead directly to WWW3 without passing go! 😱😂

  33. Omni has an in-depth article (I don’t pay so I only get to see the headlines).

    “Trump changes his mind time and time again – when does it become a problem?”

    When? Haven’t we passed that limit a long time ago?

  34. VOTE AGAIN THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED!

    Johan No.1 requested more options and as the IT slave one is, one must make sure to solve it.
    Unfortunately, it turned out that it wasn’t a good idea because the results were reset when more options were added. 🤷‍♂️

    Good to know for next time, then I have a valid reason to ignore complaints about the survey! 😂

    1. Westley Richard

      3 people have voted and there are 7 votes, this is starting to resemble the presidential election in the USA 🤨
      If I had known that you could choose more than one option, I would have voted differently 😈

      1. Does that mean that everyone except me is so satisfied with the blog that they don’t see any reason to change anything – you can close the voting now MXT, everyone is happy 👍👍

  35. I can inform you that we have now gathered a total of 7,220 comments (I and Johan probably account for half 😀).

    Thanks to everyone who is participating and contributing! 👍👍👍

    1. Westley Richard

      Congratulations!
      A quick research.
      The blog turns 3 months old today, it started strong on January 11th with 2 posts on that date, then a few more posts were added after a few days with posts like test. So the progress is strong with 150 posts per day, now we are just waiting for all the promised 3 million West Indians to start posting and not just sneak-reading and laughing at the movies on Friday drunkenness.

    2. Since the comment section here is reasonable, it’s the best! – Very good by MXT and No.1!

      There have been some Trump rants at times (and probably still are), but then someone comes along and provides a relevant and factual comment, without the emotional baggage, and then we’re back on track. A bit like above, where suddenly it becomes factual about the bond market, weapon production, and the importance of minerals.

      Every time I’ve felt there’s been a bit too much “Trump is stupid” in this comment section, I’ve scrolled down to Cornu and once again remembered why I got tired of that comment section…

      1. Thank you, nice to hear!👍

        I admit without hesitation that I do not hold Trump in particularly high regard (if anyone had any doubts about that) and I also can’t resist making fun of him (perhaps too often).

        At the same time, one must listen to, and respect, both sides and be prepared to listen but also to be ready to change one’s position if it turns out that one is actually wrong.

        Not just because everyone else thinks one thing or another (which is easy to happen, that’s why propaganda works) but based on the facts that actually emerge.

        It’s important to stay analytical! 😉

        As I said, I don’t shy away from joking about Trump but I try to avoid making fun of those who have a different view of him (except for Johan).

        I hope that both sides continue to comment and contribute with facts and opinions. That’s how progress is made and how we get closer to the truth, not by locking ourselves in a filter bubble.

  36. The time has come, so Welcome to the legendary and mythical FRIDAY DRUNKENNESS.

    IT now has its worst day of the whole week because he has to fend off millions of visitors on the servers. Last week, the South Americans had found their way here and today apparently the entire population of Nauru has gathered in front of the island’s computer with a cheap drink (was actually on my way there for work once).

    As promised, Ray Liotta will chug a bottle of beer and take two snus live if I manage to get hold of him – he doesn’t seem to have internet right now because he’s not responding.

    Yes, Trump has taken over a bit lately because it has very real effects for all of us including Ukraine and now when I tried to vote the page crashed of course, one would have expected something else 🧐

    Anyway – it’s completely okay to digress a bit in the discussions provided that it’s not completely unrelated, right – the pure praise above and I agree, I think it’s good form, interesting, and one is more and more often on the page just as it should be 👍

    And on Fridays, you can post any pictures you want, but remember that this is a historical archive and also how your grandchildren will remember you, so it will naturally have some impact on your reputation – grandpa in a Santa suit vs. grandpa chugging tallboys can easily overshadow the Santa suit version.

    I know you’ve been waiting for dog videos all week and I can promise you won’t be disappointed 🤣🤣

    Something that has made life much easier is the AI summarization on Google – a stroke of genius. I use it a lot at work but you MUST know what you’re looking for and apply critical thinking. So, it’s a good tool for summarizing information but you still need to filter the information and add a layer of analysis, a slight error in the question can lead to a wildly wrong answer.

    They have also managed to keep popular theories away from it so the answers are truthful.

    When I was at university, you still needed to borrow a book from the library or buy it – today everything is just a click away.

    Starting with a perpetual motion machine, I think the problem is that if you introduce resistance (to generate electricity) and try to scale up, it becomes more difficult but it certainly looks a bit exciting for Barsebäck.

    https://x.com/thrillarilla369/status/1906687757419679925?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    The happiest dog, absolutely hysterically funny, you’ll fall off your chair laughing 😂😂

    https://x.com/amazlngnature/status/1906319406369575259?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    And rounding off the first post with grumpy cats

    https://x.com/boldyboy1975/status/1906340604407054829?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    So, the mood is set now and we’re just waiting for Ray to respond, don’t know what’s happened to him. Bill Murray also wanted to join but since I was already fully booked, I told him to wait so now he’s at a party tonight – he and Ray aren’t the best of friends so Bill said he’ll chug two beers if Ray does one.

    1. What incredible luck that you’re not the Minister of Energy, wind power works after all!

      These days, one thinks of dogs and cats as soon as they have their Friday whiskey.
      It’s good that you don’t share funny videos about Putin and Trump, otherwise one would have been forced to become a teetotaler!

  37. Interesting machine shown in the link above. I once took a course called Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics. It was claimed there that such machines do not exist. Apparently, that was wrong.

  38. A bit slow but Ray Liotta seems to have encountered some obstacles, his internet is down because he’s not responding 😒

    In the absence of his legendary beer drinking, there will be more hysterical dog videos 😂😂😂

    https://x.com/puppiesiover/status/1906876022403854652?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    https://x.com/michellemaxwell/status/1906385613546291655?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    If those weren’t enough, here come the laughing attacks 🤣🤣

    https://x.com/thefigen_/status/1906469429434531996?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

    https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1906587374408139130?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

     

    1. I have heard that there is a “beer market” on the stock exchange now, so it competes with this blog until the American stock exchange closes in a few hours.

      1. Ha ha, it’s an allusion to a “bear market” when the bear puts its nose down in the ground and most papers perform poorly. But a beer market sounds better. Especially on a Friday evening when the tall cans are lined up.

  39. Westley Richard

    An oil tanker suspected to belong to the Russian shadow fleet has been seized by Estonia in the Gulf of Finland, reports TT. The purpose is to investigate the ship’s documents and legal status. The captain and a large part of the crew are Chinese citizens. They are said to have claimed that the ship was flagged in Djibouti, something that is denied by authorities in the country, according to the Estonian Coast Guard. The oil tanker, which was en route to the Russian Ust-Luga, is under sanctions from Canada, the EU, and the UK, reports the Estonian public service channel ERR. It lacks ownership registration and insurance.

  40. Great rating 🌟! You are one of those who contribute to a sober tone. I’m not always fair to Trump and Maga either, but I try to at least keep myself in check (even if I don’t always succeed). They simply believe in what they are doing, I don’t (for many reasons).

    1. Just laugh – with positive thinking you will move forward 🧐

      (and if more people write lots of small comments on just a word or two)

    2. Westley Richard

      Sounds like a salesperson I had. The salespeople received a bonus depending on how much they sold each year. At the end of the years, he came with a lot of orders that earned him a good bonus. After the new year, suddenly there were a lot of postponed delivery times to the production unit that had ramped up to meet demand. He tried the same trick once more. I wonder where he works now 😉

      1. Sounds like an excellent topic for becoming a politician. Promise big before the election, then back down on everything and blame it on all the other parties.

  41. Westley Richard

    🤔🇺🇦🇺🇸 Kellogg has said Ukraine could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after WW2” as part of a peace deal, – The Times

    🇬🇧🇫🇷 He suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Kellogg said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lmktmtcfa22a

    1. I hope to the gods that this is not what Kier Starmer is cooking up 😶

      Now it’s crucial for Europe to step in and take defensive positions against at least Belarus so UA can release a lot of firepower – nothing else.

  42. Now it’s soon time to head home, my colleagues are still here until Monday so I can’t leave too early, but next week it will be all about chilling and having a good time like an Italian.

    Then it’s about an hour until the first pit stop – Carrefour city for some liquid shopping before reaching the finish line and being able to uncork.

    I lost big in the Friday negotiations today, so a bottle of wine it is, and then I’ll sneak in a few beers.

  43. We don’t believe that this “coalition of the willing” still aligns with the USA, do we?

    My money is on UA offensive until we hear otherwise.

    1. Westley Richard

      The USA just wants to sell weapons and grab minerals.
      A lot of money and weapons were promised, the question is just which year they will arrive.

    1. Cats are humans’ best friends, a truth that dog lovers’ propaganda has been working against ever since Noah’s Ark, when both fought to have all inbred variations classified as their own breeds, and it was the cats who won.

    1. That’s exactly what I’ve been saying all along! China is a huge threat!!! It’s not just Russia that should be bombed to rubble, China also needs to be leveled to the ground! Make China a parking lot!

    1. Then it’s probably best for the regime to tie these to so-called “patriot poles” so they don’t blow away to a democratic country! (yikes)….
      *stackajs kinser, ujuj, blowing buoy in the lovely storm* (sarcasm)
      Blow to hell preferably (but I guess it’s already getting crowded there with all the (drone-killed) rizzars…)!!

  44. The Trump administration has hung a portrait of Donald Trump in the foyer of the White House, several media outlets report. The portrait is essentially a reproduction of an AP photo from the assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania last year. The move is extremely unusual for a sitting president as most have to wait until their term is over before their portrait is hung, AFP writes. To make room for the new painting, Barack Obama’s portrait has been moved to the opposite wall.

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