Ukraine daily update April 12, 2025

Now we are going to rotate back to Ukraine but I just want to mention that China responded proportionally with 125% tariffs against the USA’s 145% tariffs. Then the EU has approached China and proposed discussions on tariff exemptions for Chinese electric cars, and Elon’s Tesla sales in China have dropped to zero. Also, no one in Europe is buying Teslas anymore.

It was also the US bond market that took a direct hit and their stock exchanges that have suffered the most.

Since I believe that the USA intended to try to take the first blow to get others moving, and that this seems to have failed miserably, they have a difficult decision to make in the future.

As someone wrote on johanno1.se yesterday, if Europe now negotiates a nice trade agreement with China, it will immediately become unsustainable for the USA, which will be left standing alone without imports and exports.

The idea I guessed was that the second step from the USA would be to demand something like a trade embargo with China or at least X% tariffs against China to continue trading with the USA – with the assurance that everyone would choose the USA.

But if the world’s two largest players now completely bypass the USA and can start reaching agreements on difficult issues, then hasn’t the USA just shot a torpedo at its own ship, right?

In any case, Canada has already cut ties with the USA and Mexico is also somewhat displeased – and there we have all of the USA’s largest trading partners.

It’s a bit like when Sweden in the 90s was going to field-test an Italian torpedo and after firing it went in a big circle and then locked onto the boat that fired it, the panic 😂

The USA has long been on a downward slope, and if they now move towards total isolation, maybe they don’t feel that the next step is so far away, so perhaps it’s better to wait a bit before the danger blows over?

At least China showed during COVID that they are absolutely willing to drag the world down into the abyss if necessary.

So either a much-needed balance of terror has been achieved thanks to our friends in Japan and we will have a period of relative calm from the USA.

Or things will escalate even further from either the USA or China – your guess is as good as mine 😂

On a personal level, Trump is probably quite pleased with his pump-and-dump of the stock markets where he and his circle have made billions in profit. It’s a bit like King Charles starting to sell autographs, but apparently nothing is too low for Trump.

And I am happy about the 90-day halt because then the company I work for has time to start the project, and it won’t be interrupted once the advance payment is made and the contractor starts mobilizing.

The situation in Ukraine hasn’t been great since Trump took office, and in my opinion, Ukraine is being too aggressive towards China right now, but that’s just because I hope that China will turn into an “enemy of your enemy” against the USA and Russia – Ukraine is doing what they feel is right, and that’s right.

Then they want to take the 50 billion euros they received from the EU and buy weapons from the USA – I thought we were supposed to support their domestic industry with that money, which was 20 billion USD redundant or EU defense industry?

I don’t know if it’s an attempt to appease the USA maybe?

The problem Ukraine has is that Trump has not only ruined things for them again by 2025 by completely turning them around, but also the US defense industry has been closed to them since Biden.

It could be that they see an opportunity and are trying to make purchases on contract, but Trump can do anything, and wouldn’t it be better to buy from the EU and UA instead with guaranteed delivery?

Ukraine is fighting for its survival, and like all countries, they have political turmoil – we’ve been lucky in Europe that Ukraine didn’t have a 1940 scenario and get overrun in a matter of weeks, but it’s up to the EU to support Ukraine now when Trump is actively working against them.

The latest peace proposal from the USA is “give Russia the provinces they want” 😡

In the Baltic Sea, Estonia has now seized a tanker due to being unseaworthy and has stated that threats to their power cables will be met with torpedoes – no one acts in a vacuum, so the EU has probably let Estonia take the lead on this, with our submarines lurking behind 😀

The Russian Baltic Fleet consists of around forty ships, and considering how things went in the Black Sea against a country without a navy, they should be considered a minor threat. But that’s not what Russia will play on; it’s the threat of escalation, of course.

In the Baltics, it’s almost time to move in our maneuver brigades and start fortifying the border.

True to form, Russia has expressed great concern over Russian minorities in the Baltics while also engaging in subversive activities to create maximum discord – so the concern is justified, as they are the ones threatening their own…

Everything follows the steps that Russia always takes before attacking a neighbor.

As you have read these posts, you know that RU has a larger strategic reserve against the Baltics, and according to Estonia’s intelligence service, there are two divisions and an AC, with one division and an AC deployed in the summer of 2024 if I interpreted this correctly, and a second division will be ready in 2025, in time for Zapad 25.

https://odessa-journal.com/russia-has-created-two-large-military-units-near-the-border-with-estonia

We can also reasonably assume that the USA will not participate much, so we in Europe must take the lead. I’m pretty sure that the USA will not assist in any land grabs as long as Trump is president.

As mentioned earlier, the area in southeastern Estonia is at stake, a nature reserve.

Estonia’s defense forces focus on the northern part of the border with Russia because Tallinn is located there, and if I may guess, Latvia probably likes Daugava for its last stand since both Riga and Daugavpils are on that axis.

The purpose is not to invade the Baltics or engage in full-scale war against the West – the purpose is probably to test NATO and create uncertainty in our EU markets.

For Putin, the highest cost (at the moment) would be if his AC and two divisions were defeated and had to limp back to Russia – Europe won’t retaliate more militarily, and economically, we’ve probably fired most of our shots now that we’re boarding ships.

The campaign will be preceded and followed by absolutely absurd subversive activities – both influence and direct sabotage where nothing can be traced back to Russia as usual.

Swedish Peace will once again issue their recent recommendation not to resist the invasion, but when invaded, then turn the road signs around (posted the recent interview a week ago, right?).

Gandhi was probably lucky to stand up against the British and not Russia, but that’s another story.

Where China stands in all of this is anyone’s guess – yes, we can assume that they have aversion towards the USA, but China always does what’s best for China, and maybe they don’t mind if the EU has even more problems?

China and Russia have control over most countries in Africa that have rare earth metals and other resources that we would need in Europe, with China accounting for 70% of production, the US for 13%, and Russia and China controlling old -places with rare earth metals – while the EU imports 100%.

The EU also imports a key component for ammunition charges for almost 100%, if I remember correctly.

Not to mention the oil imports, and then we import all our Boron from Turkey (check what it’s needed for).

Everyone knows that if you forget salt or sugar for a cake, no one will eat it for dessert at home and say they are very full after the super delicious overcooked pasta and lukewarm tomato sauce 😭

The same goes for everything we produce, if you remove one component, there will be no finished product.

So – we manufacture Caesar and 155mm, but for it to be able to shoot, 155mm ammunition is needed, and nitrocellulose is almost 100% controlled by China, which is for the propellant in the grenade?

Google suggests that China, Turkey, the USA, and Germany produce it, but that weapons-grade material largely comes from China for us in the EU.

Now, after three years of war in Ukraine, we also do not have huge stocks of ammunition.

So… if China stops all exports of Nitrocellulose, there will be no shots fired from the Caesar howitzer, and then a production stop for a year before everything returns to normal with a lot of luck.

Ukraine is in acute shortage, but apparently, Finland can help – Finland has not shut down everything to save the world like the rest of us have.

So far, we in the West have had free rein to act like this towards Russia, but we probably shouldn’t think that it can’t be done to us.

The reason why we import everything possible and have hardly any domestic production is that the fight against self-defense capabilities has been fought very broadly – here it is the environmental court that puts obstacles in the way, for example, for Nammo until 2024.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vast/nammo-i-karlsborg-far-nej-om-villkor-for-nytt-sprangamne

I have tried to figure out why we do not manufacture nitrocellulose (gun cotton?) but have not made much progress. Considering that we are Nobel and what he did, I find it a bit strange?

If I were to guess, it has to do with environmental laws and laws on explosive materials, and that along the way, it has been eliminated?

Yes, I find it strange that in the name of the environment and animals, we always manage to hit things that really sting – like power generation and the ability to defend oneself, for example. But we still have Kosher or Halal slaughter because animals can be stunned, and if it is done, no one checks, but if the animal is to be slaughtered according to the right routine, it must not be stunned.

Or like this, and now it gets messy – according to the Swedish Board of Agriculture, Kosher slaughter is not allowed, but Halal slaughter is allowed if the animal is stunned. The slaughter methods are exactly the same, and no one cares about stunning?

Here we must give the Green Party credit for at least trying to raise the issue – see MXT, I am honest 🧐

https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/motion/slakt-genom-skaktning_gm02mj516

And then on to this huge discussion about our hunting weapons and recreational shooters, who significantly enhance defense capabilities – they are very valuable but apparently should be removed in times of unrest like this.

At the same time, the deadly violence from criminal gangs that is on the rise is considered a bit tough. Probably not far off either with those who pose a threat to national security since foreign powers have direct contact and are already placing orders with them – what do you think if the same effort was put into trying to disarm criminal gangs and clans as with sports shooters and hunters?

One rejoices at the small Ukrainian counterattacks, otherwise it is mostly Russian.

At Kupiansk, RU has now crossed Oskil broadly and is digging westward.

What is popularly called Lyman is the area south of there, and according to Twitter rumors, RU is supposed to increase the offensive there in that area. Taking all the terrain east of Oskil is probably a high priority to have a stable anchor in the northern flank.

RU has taken Toretsk from UA again to a large extent.

In Pokrovsk, RU is trying to secure the last supply route, but the ground will soon give way, and in the area, UA has carried out surgical Russian-killer attacks.

And at the Southern front, the Russian offensive seems to have started, but no major achievements directly.

As I sit and piece together the puzzle, I have a small thought that Ukraine has something big in the works. I don’t know if they want to wait out Trump or if it’s the weather that will decide, but it will be tough to be Russian in Ukraine not too long from now.

It’s not just Dengamle who has radio silence, and we have gone through the equipment and other items that have been delivered.

However, I do not have a sufficiently good understanding of the red side – at the same time, they are struggling a lot and crawling over the fields on crutches with hardly any heavy vehicles, and the number of fired artillery shells is low, but according to everyone, they have set up significant offensive strategic reserves and recruitment is said to be far above the target.

Of course, it also matters where these offensive strategic reserves are headed, but UA should have full control over them and combat all the bases now, which we do not receive information about?

There are hundreds of vehicles in assembly areas, ammunition depots, and barracks in bases around western Russia – all of which should be high-priority targets, one would think, and Ukraine has no shortage of drones.

Either it is an influence operation from UA and our intelligence services to breathe life into our half-dead politicians, or RU is also starting a seriously intended summer offensive – unclear to me at least 😶

What I do believe is important is that UA does not launch a spring offensive again in 2023 because the country is not that resilient, but it is this year that UA has managed to knock down that whack-a-mole, and the stacks are in the right place.

Russian capabilities such as heavy vehicles, FAB, drones, and artillery have been severely suppressed.

At the same time, they have raised their own stacks like FAB, drones, frontline aircraft, heavy vehicles, and the ability to break through fortification lines. Then they solve the personnel supply by letting units from Europe take up defensive positions west of the Dnieper.

A lot of mine-clearing vehicles were delivered again last fall, if I remember correctly.

Then we have the capability for night combat, and the RU strategic reserve may have it a bit better, but if you attack on crutches, you certainly don’t have batteries for the night vision goggles.

Ukrainian brigades have targeting devices in their heavy vehicles, but night vision goggles and targeting devices for personal weapons are in huge quantities, so they can absolutely conduct night combat, and if you have ever participated in such an exercise, the advantage is monumental when fighting against units that lack it.

The number of vehicles for amphibious combat must be closer to 300 now, and a considerable amount of helicopters have also been received.

I don’t think Europe will allow itself to be talked down by the USA as in 2022 – 2024. We might actually be grateful for Trump and the spell was broken because Biden had a better ability to keep us in check – now Europe has clearly taken off on its own, especially regarding the Ukraine war.

It can’t be easy to be Trump – “I want Europe to solve this on their own” and then of course he hopes that we will crash and then we go and do exactly as he says. The same with oil prices and arms sales – now he wants us to buy American-made again when he said we couldn’t before.

The USA has had the ability to exert far too much control, so maybe we should let Trump enjoy his stock gains and those gold basketball shoes he sells and thank him for the boost?

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86 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update April 12, 2025”

  1. drones2ukraine

    Sidetrack, but since my parents have run a Swedish halal slaughterhouse and I have slaughtered thousands of sheep, I just wanted to share some information that always seems to be missing in societal discussions.

    According to Islam, death is determined by cardiac death and not brain death, which is the opposite in Sweden (for the past 40-50 years?)
    This means that if the brain of the animal is burned/blown up, it is considered dead according to Swedish law, but not according to Islam, where the animal is then drained of blood and the heart beats its last beats.

    Tada!

    1. If I went off track a bit, I guess I’ll have to apologize if half of it wasn’t accurate (as usual) 😀

      Good that we managed to find a way to euthanize the animal that worked for everyone 👍

       

       

       

       

  2. Russia genomförde en drönarattack mot Kyiv och träffade Sviatoshynskyi-distriktet. En lagerbyggnad fattade eld och täckte 1 500 m² – branden är nu under kontroll.

    En annan brand bröt ut på en industriplats och påverkade två lagerbyggnader (1 000 och 150 m²) med delvis förstörelse – släckningsarbetet pågår.

  3. “Ukraine could be divided “almost like Berlin after World War II” under a peace deal, says Kellogg.

    “Postwar map” of Ukraine according to Keith Kellogg’s theory, in which Russia holds the east and south of Ukraine, while the Ukrainian armed forces control the western part, — The Times”

    1. 🇺🇸 Keith Kellogg responds to The Times article

      “The article misrepresents what I said. I was speaking of a post-ceasefire resiliency force in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty. When discussing partitioning, I meant zones of responsibility for an allied force (without US troops), NOT dividing Ukraine””

      1. And who [bleep] did he think would be the peacekeeping force (or whatever we want to call it) in the currently ryz-occupied areas, then???
        It sounds like the guy has forgotten the main rule on how to behave, like digging with a shovel in a pit, or having one/both feet in a mess…

    1. 👍👍
      And shame on everyone who didn’t know who the first (2014) was (however, if you can’t spell her last name you are forgiven 😂)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani
      Strange how women manage *better* in cultures that are not so *equal* (economically or in other ways), feminized, nurturing, etc, at least within STEM…
      OK, domestic politics/ideology and off topic. ☹️

  4. Some Russian attacks on the southern front. Lyman up again, Pokrovsk down again.
    In total, 149 combat engagements took place over the past day.
     
    #Kharkiv 3
    #Kupyansk 7
    #Lyman 25↗️💥
    #Siverskyi 6
    #Kramatorsk 3
    #Toretsk 14↘️💥
    #Pokrovsk 40↘️💥💥
    #Novopavlivka 6
    #Huliaipil 3
    #Orikhivsk 4↗️
    #Prydniprovsky 7↗️
    #Kursk 21💥
     
    Seven occupants’ attacks took place in the Kupyansk sector. Defense forces🇺🇦 repelled the AFRF🇷🇺’s assault near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove.

     
    In the Lyman sector, the AFRF🇷🇺 attacked 25 times. He tried to advance in the areas of Nadiya, Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, and Yampolivka.

     
    In the Toretsk sector, the AFRF🇷🇺 carried out 14 attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, and Toretsk.

     
    In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 stopped 40 AFRF🇷🇺’s attacks near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Yelizavetivka, Pishchane, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Nadiivka, and Andriivka.

     
    In the Prydniprovsky sector, the AFRF🇷🇺 attacked seven times towards the positions of our defenders but was unsuccessful.

     
    In the operational zone in the Kursk region, Ukrainian Defense Forces🇺🇦 repelled 21 attacks by AFRF🇷🇺 yesterday. Additionally, the AFRF🇷🇺 launched 55 airstrikes using 90 guided bombs and also fired 156 artillery shells at the positions of our troops and settlements, including 29 from multiple launch rocket systems.

     
    Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces, and artillery of the Defense Forces🇺🇦 hit 11 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons, and military equipment of the AFRF🇷🇺, two MLRS, one artillery system, and two air defense systems.

  5. 🇺🇦 Ukraine can now independently produce FrankenSAM air defense systems. Kyiv has received the technical documentation and is fully capable of implementing the project on its own, said Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin.

  6. Ukraine could suggest that areas occupied by the Russians since 2014, including Crimea, where the US gets a great deal on extracting rare earth metals at 100% and doesn’t have to share the profits with Ukraine for 10 years, provided that Russia leaves the occupied areas and a demilitarized buffer zone of 5 miles is created along the entire border in Russian territory.

    1. The problem is that Trump completely disregards everything that is logical – the negotiation is completely rigged.

      Otherwise, doesn’t the proposal sound excellent?

    1. They have some in-house production (but need to import cotton as they do not have their own cultivation).

      I think it’s best to keep quiet about where they import cotton from.

        1. Good idea but what I understand is that one uses something called cotton linters which are short fibers, so-called seed hair which in turn is a by-product in the production of the pure cotton that is then used for textiles. In theory, one can use all cotton but linters are much purer while the rest of the cotton is more “contaminated”. Regular cotton requires significantly more advanced purification processes and provides poorer and more varied quality at a significantly higher price.

          Old clothes where you have to get rid of the dye, must separate from any other material contamination, etc. would probably further increase the cost of the process.

          It is possible if you want to, but it is expensive!

          Now there is a lot of research on how to handle old textiles so it is not impossible that in the future processes will be developed where pure nitrocellulose can be extracted.

          1. Wouldn’t it be possible to find a solution within our wood industry? I know that different processes have been developed to manufacture completely different things than what is common today, even clothes and paper are relatively close to cotton.

            SORRY, I MISSED LYNX’s post. Now we know what we can do with Northvolt’s premises. LET’S GO!

    2. “Cotton powder” is not made of cotton alone, thank goodness, that was a very long time ago. It is made of nitrated cellulose, that is, wood fibers is what one can assume.

      That being said, it is beyond comprehension that for example Sweden does not have its own production.

      1. Do you have any source? Thinking about doing a deep dive into the subject and if tree fungus can really be used for gunpowder production and replace cotton, it sounds fantastic!

          1. Yes, that is the process regardless of whether it is cotton or wood that is the raw material, I was specifically thinking about when using wood specifically to produce pure enough nitrocellulose to then make gunpowder.

  7. Keith Kellogg apparently remains as the Ukraine envoy for the Trump administration. He suggests a division of Ukraine modeled after Berlin after 2 weeks with a western zone and an eastern zone.

  8. Thank you! Yes, I see. Kellogg’s correction is a bit unclear since he avoids mentioning if and in that case what is to become a Russian territory.

  9. Ola’s text in Kvartal, including Andy Xie’s columns, reinforces much of what you write about Johan.
    “There was no natural law sentencing Europe to be a tech colony today. Or that China would be technologically self-sufficient and have its own tech giants.
    Now that the USA is in a trade war with both China and Europe, China has its own alternatives. Europe, on the other hand…”
    https://kvartal.se/artiklar/pa-spaning-efter-en-smart-protektionism/

  10. In March, RU lost 1650 pieces of artillery (guns, tracks, and wheeled howitzers, and GRK I guess) and 43 MLRS.

    They are short on MLRS, so it’s harder to get hold of them.

    The reason is that in recent months, UA has expanded its drone coverage to also include distances longer than artillery range.

    Everyone can see that this is unsustainable for RU in the long run, and if they lose their artillery, it’s like tearing out the backbone of a medieval knight, more or less.

    UA can probably disrupt drone weapons at focal points and then they have anti-drone drones against RU drones, right?

    NK has only delivered a few hundred of its heavier tracked howitzers, and now I can’t remember their range, but that doesn’t stop UA from putting longer-range drones on them.

  11. Has everyone recovered from Friday’s binge drinking 😲

    I had been reported as fallen in action, I discovered this morning, but I can report that I am okay 👍

  12. Trump claims that masses of countries (60, 75, 90?) are calling and pushing because they want to negotiate tariffs.
    Personally, I suspect that the phones in the White House are rather buzzing with all the business leaders in the USA who want to negotiate exemptions from the same tariffs. 😉

    “USA introduces tariff exemptions for certain tech gadgets
    USA introduces new tariff exemptions for certain imported goods, including computers, smartphones, and equipment for semiconductor manufacturing, reports Bloomberg.
    The decision on the exemptions, announced by the US customs authority, means that among others Apple, Samsung, and TSMC temporarily avoid extra fees.”
    https://omni.se/usa-infor-tullundantag-for-teknikprodukter/a/zA1175

  13. “Tourists shun the USA – Trump scares off Europeans

    Western European travelers chose to avoid the USA as a tourist destination in March, reports the Financial Times, citing new statistics.

    The number of visitors from Western Europe staying at least one night in the USA decreased by 17 percent in March compared to the same month last year. From Sweden, travel decreased by 17-18 percent, while the decline from countries like Norway, Denmark, and Germany was even greater.”

    1. Regarding the Green Party – they and the Social Democrats want to try to nationalize Northvolt.

      Since we have crazy amounts of claims, we should probably get it for free and then do it right?

      It’s not that damn hard to build batteries if you just learn not to be cheated by China and unscrupulous world saviors.

      Better that than everything shutting down, there is a market if BYD hasn’t crushed our entire production now that the EU is going to butter up with duty-free access, right?

  14. A few thoughts on China, among other things.
    My suspicion is that both Chinese mercenaries and North Koreans are actually test balloons to see how the world reacts and, perhaps most importantly, WHO reacts.
    So far, the “interest” in these two groups has been quite lukewarm.
    Which probably means that an expanded use of these could result in continued mild reactions.
    So, regarding the reduced amount of FAB and artillery, COULD it be that these are being saved for a possible SMO in the Baltic countries?
    Finally, maybe it’s just as well that this happens, so Europe wakes up for REAL…?
    Or are we doomed?? Because it is highly likely that China will become actively involved – via North Korea – especially in northern Scandinavia and the Arctic region.
    Above all, biblical amounts of drones will be used. Both FPV and AI swarms.

  15. There is a lot of talk about rare earth metals and the USA/EU/China. But another even more important thing is common food for us humans. China is dependent on imports, and the USA and Brazil are the largest exporters to China. One guess is that China wants to diversify away from its dependence on American food (21% of imports). So, a smash opportunity for the EU here! Perhaps especially France and Ukraine? Another consequence of reduced Chinese imports from the USA is that the American market gets overproduction and thus lower prices for domestic food, which should benefit Trump’s core voters. China, by the way, has a history of enormous famine disasters that create political turbulence, so this is worth keeping an eye on a little.
    A brief overview:

    https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/Food
    https://www.uschina.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/us_exports_to_china_2023_0.pdf

    1. Westley Richard

      Interesting reading. China’s imports from the USA are mainly grains and vegetable oils. This should significantly affect commodity prices, as for me, grocery stores have referred to world prices when explaining price increases on, for example, bread.
      Over a million Americans have jobs that depend on exports to China, some in California but the majority in Trump’s state.

  16. Ending the night’s comment section with a hope. Hoping that Ukraine has sorted out the swarming AI drones, or whatever you usually call them, and that it’s what they will soon unleash across the borders. The calm before the storm…

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