Will be this week’s last post as everyone surely wants to celebrate Easter in peace and quiet 😀
So, I take the opportunity to wish everyone a Happy Easter and that you get to spend time with loved ones in whatever constellation that may be.
We don’t have very high expectations for Easter in the Caribbean, but being together is good, and Leyenda is good.
I often write that it is what China chooses to do that will determine whether this becomes a global conflict or not.
As everyone is now appalled by Trump’s trade tariffs, which can best be described as a magnificent debacle, it is appropriate to clarify that China already gave the US a couple of pinpricks under Biden.
In September 2024, China stopped exporting Nitrocellulose to the US, and that was under Biden. In the link below, weapon manufacturers complain that they cannot produce ammunition.
(do some googling on US production vs. shortage before guessing wrong).
So, this was long before Trump started messing up with trade tariffs, and below you have FOX speculating on the purpose of the punitive tariffs, with a news anchor speculating freely.
IF this is what comes out of the White House, unfortunately, I think they are deceiving themselves; China has higher resilience than that.
Trump has just announced what we guessed he would do a little over a week ago – “if you want to trade with the US, you must freeze out China.”
The problem here is that China has already begun to identify the friends who betray – Australia sells beef when China stops American beef, Brazil sells soybeans when the US cannot sell soybeans, and so on, all the way to Spain, where the first cracks in the EU facade are already showing.
Let’s rewind the tape significantly –
USA did a Spain, but instead of gold, it’s selling debt that corrupted them. When Spain found unlimited gold in South America, the country completely stopped its production of everything – they just bought everything they needed on the world market instead. In the long run, it was this brilliant move that collapsed the country and made it the Spain we know today – mañana and outdated tapas.
The Netherlands actually collapsed when their trading company was mismanaged, I think the major earthquake played a role in Portugal, and the UK supported the US during WW2 – we’ve been through that.
(another rewind – for those who think you can mismanage things, like shutting down a lot of electricity production and other fun stuff – look at the USA, how a number of bad decisions immediately had huge consequences – there is a real world to deal with. Or Brexit).
USA has sold debt and buys everything with the world currency USD – they have shut down manufacturing, and everything is outsourced to other countries for a good price for the customer (very simplified, I know).
Companies have prioritized large and quick profits over having know-how and production within the country, which is good for national security and citizens. Maybe we can’t blame China for that.
The quick-witted realize that this not only applies to the USA but that we have done the same in many countries in the EU.
There has been no shortage of warnings over the years, and during COVID, everyone realized that sea shipments from China are just a trade blockade away from being stopped, and then there will be no pre-cut beef that was raised in Norway, slaughtered in Romania, but was supposed to be sliced in Finland.
But now it’s 2025, and the USA and Europe import 100% of various key components and raw materials from China. And the rest of the world’s reserves are in countries that China or Russia control because we have withdrawn.
The USA has perhaps managed slightly better than the EU, but we live under the belief that Europe is not in dire straits, only the USA – and then I think we are grossly mistaken. If the world smells blood, they will go on the offensive because nothing would be more attractive than making changes to the current world order that has been in place for hundreds of years.
But is it really so because upset by Trump, China has now stopped the export of rare earth metals and magnets (you had to google that, but China controls 70-90% of the magnets) to the whole world, including Europe.
Will complicate our defense industry.
A somewhat conspiratorial thought is that China allowed the Ukraine war to deplete the West of important raw materials before imposing an export ban?
You may remember someone who writes long posts and has long been talking about the longer the war goes on, the higher the risk for Europe, and I think it still holds up 😀
Google is not clear on whether China has already limited/semi-strangled its export of nitrocellulose to Europe, but if nothing else, it will probably soon be on China’s list for export bans. It seems that European countries feel they have not been able to buy enough.
You also understand that all of this has a lead time, and then production will also start in Europe and the USA. How long that will take, who knows, but nitrocellulose is not impossible to produce at all, and some European producers already exist.
Like Putin’s gas weapons – once fired, they only have value for a year or two, a window that you either exploit or let pass by.
In fact, Ukraine recently had an acute shortage of nitrocellulose, but Finland managed to alleviate that shortage.
Back to the USA, the number of Chinese citizens arrested at the southern border has skyrocketed in recent years, I saw recently.
Then a farmer complained that there are 4 major “meat processing plants” operators in the USA, two of which are Chinese and one Brazilian of the four, controlling 85% of the market in total. So, from mooing cow to delicious beef steak.
China has just stopped two of the largest American soybean exporters from doing business in China.
And no more American beef for the Chinese.
What the USA believes it has is the ability to potentially economically collapse China, but Trump’s first attempt ended with him learning that China also holds another type of nuclear weapon – the US national debt.
We went through that last week and don’t need to delve into it again because everyone reads the posts.
So far, China has succeeded well in dividing the West thanks to Trump’s ravages – Australia is very happy that they can now sell meat to China, and as anyone who has done a group project in school knows, some always switch sides.
There is also a somewhat fantastically large Chinese influence operation underway now about who produces what and buying directly from China at 30% of the price but with the same quality you have in stores in your home country.
Make Piracy Legal Again – this should probably not be underestimated because the design is owned by fashion houses, and China is now selling to anyone with a thousand.
There is presumably something more behind this, and if one can crash the fashion houses, maybe one can trigger an economic downturn in Europe?
https://twitter.com/tanyajunghans/status/1911307477162905604?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have three actors in play here; Russia, the USA, and China, all vying for a top position, preferably 1st place.
Putin already started in 2007 with his infamous speech, and the USA before that with the Iraq War. Iraq was a strategic ally for Russia, and they were not entirely satisfied in 2003.
One must be careful and remember that one person’s freedom fighter is another person’s terrorist, but for Russia, the situation became critical as more countries joined NATO in Eastern Europe.
In 2011, there were massive protests in Russia against Putin, which he believed were instigated by the USA – as they say, it takes one to know one, perhaps some would say.
Russia’s red line was probably always Ukraine, and even though the USA had nothing to do with Yanukovych’s fall, as it was about an EU free trade agreement, Putin probably believed so, and that’s what quickly led to Crimea in 2014.
Consistently, the USA and Europe have given Putin a free pass, motivating him to continue, but China is also sitting on the sidelines watching.
It’s no secret that the USA wants an ally in Russia against China, and since February 24, 2022, this has been put to the test – the USA refuses to let Russia collapse.
We can reasonably assume that the USA wants a controllable Europe during a cold war with Russia. We left this behind in 1989 (or 1991, if you prefer…) and the USA had its best years during the Cold War.
Or at the very least, they don’t care the least bit that a collapsed Russia would probably be better for us in Europe.
China also has power ambitions, they are just infinitely patient, but now they have at least reached the point where they are ready to fight – they do not back down from the USA, as Trump has now learned the hard way.
But…
If the USA fires its shots at China and realizes they have bitten off more than they can chew – who are their natural allies then?
You guessed it right – the rest of the West.
And how should this mess be solved – well, by quickly getting Europe to win against Russia so that we can collectively focus on China.
But we are very far from that point yet, and I am still not convinced that Trump is not playing a double game directly with Russia or that the USA has any hidden agendas still – I will address this in a post later.
What I have always seen with the USA is that they rally their allies against the next threat, which would now be China, but this time the USA is not following that pattern, a deviation from what we recognize as the norm.
Last week was a total disaster in strategic communication from the EU –
-Poland’s Dzjuda states that the only reasonable path to peace for Ukraine is through Trump.
-Kaja Kallas announces that the coalition of the willing meeting went poorly.
-Germany’s upcoming Merz says that the EU will only be considered once the war is over.
Not far from the catastrophic NATO meeting in 2023 or Zelensky’s humiliating trip to the USA in September 2024.
The USA’s proposed peace plan is actually a partition of Ukraine where RU gets four provinces, of which UA still controls a significant amount of land 😶
And then the EU has approached China to make it easier for them to export electric cars to us, but it seems we are not getting anything in return. The quid pro quo could have been “convince Putin to leave Ukraine”?
Europe has NOT delivered what they should have, and the clock is ticking.
Next, what could happen is that China intervenes in the Ukraine war to humiliate Trump, or to further pressure Europe. North Korea had no consequences, so the door is open.
What we can establish, however, is that the pressure cooker is heating up, even if everyone laughs at Trump – China has made several concerning moves lately, and the risk of the situation spiraling out of control increases the longer it goes on, and eventually, no current head of state can control this – this is how a world war begins, in case anyone was wondering.
Let’s rewind – Russia had its German post-WW1 trauma after 1991, and the invasion of Ukraine is comparable to Poland in 1939.
Putin has diligently imprisoned and eliminated internal opposition and criticism against him, which was extensive as recently as 2011, so he has the country under tight control.
We know that Putin intends to continue – partly because they have told us so, but also because we see the preparations.
So IF Europe manages to break Russia’s back in Ukraine, Russia will collapse – they will turn inwards 100% and disintegrate into about ten new countries. If this does not happen, Russia will continue until it reaches a breaking point – it’s up to Europe to decide how we want it to go, actually.
Everyone always says that the next step won’t happen, but we have already had February 2022, the Houthis firing rockets at hundreds of ships, and October 7 culminating in Syria falling.
Then an extreme wave of Russian sabotage in Europe, such as cutting undersea cables and Estonia and Finland seizing RU ships.
And of course, Trump’s antics, which have surprised some in their intensity – at least they surprised me.
And before that, we were sitting at home wearing face masks because China released COVID by persuading (bribing) the WHO not to isolate China before it became a global spread. If you remember, the WHO recommended keeping airports in China open until it spread, and then they realized it was airborne and closed all airports worldwide.
In the pipeline, we have Zapad 25, which is five months away, and the USA, Russia, and China all have power ambitions and have been increasing pressure on each other gradually in recent years.
We have had two world wars before and just emerged from a cold war.
The Netherlands is right to increase readiness, and you will see more countries in Europe doing the same – even though everyone talks about sitting still, many countries are not taking any chances.
But…, and yes, I am most interested in the EU here actually, some tough decisions must be made very soon.
If we do nothing more than what we have done today, the likelihood is probably closer to 1 that RU will escalate by the time of Zapad. They could also do the “unexpected” and strike the Baltics already during the preparations for Zapad months before, on June 23-24, for example 😀
Or they might wait until early autumn just before the weather worsens and make their move so that our counteraction also has bad weather to contend with, who knows – but we must plan for both scenarios.
Yes, our politicians have a reality to deal with in a completely different way than we do sitting in front of the computer, but inaction now leads to death, and it’s time to wake up from the slumber.
Some countries, like Finland, have already sorted out their domestic issues, gotten rid of weak leaders, and acquired strong leaders in tough times, like with Stubb, but what no one has yet managed to bridge is the larger European cooperation, and that is currently faltering significantly.
The Baltic States are still testing which bunker model would be best, and no country has yet mined the border – with an expected conflict only months away.
Finland began building its defensive lines against Russia long before the Winter War in 1939 – a year before.
Immediately after Ukraine’s blitz offensive in Kharkov 2022, Russia began building the Surovikin Line, which resisted the UA offensive in the spring of 2023.
Poland will demand help from the EU and must protect against the Kaliningrad and Belarus borders, and they would like to see Lithuania defended – and Poland is a strong voice.
Finland is busy defending its land border, so it will be fortified in Southeast Estonia in a few months, which is incredibly unfortunate as they are centering their defense around the northern part of the country and Latvia in the southern part of their land.
A small open wound in Ukraine has worked out just fine, so why not try it with the EU?
That’s how it looks and the weeks go by…
By the way, China has started its anti-drone training in soldier education, do you think the Baltic States have come that far?
Because if there’s one thing RU has learned now, it’s drone warfare in 2025 – they’ve learned the hard way.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1911130066827755586?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It’s hard to escape the fact that China is biding its time here and has made several successful moves recently.
There was also a massive military exercise against Taiwan recently, and they have built their own Mulberry harbors floating in some port in China.
I also have a thought that has zero support, and that is, did Trump’s move come too late?
If he had acted as he does now back on February 24, 2022, this would probably look radically different.
Yes, he has made a strong start since January 20, but perhaps the window of time was already closed?
If he had pulled the rug out from under Ukraine in 2022, maybe they wouldn’t have made it, and Europe would already be in a cold war?
Just a thought, but that didn’t happen, and historians will have something to argue about, but maybe that’s why he fought so much about the election loss – because history left him behind?
USA, China, and Russia have one thing in common (everything else they are at odds about) – that the EU does not become too strong.
If Europe becomes too strong, all three have bitter experiences of what we used to do back then, but probably it’s more because if we sort ourselves out internally, we are a natural force that will take over the planet if we want
– don’t awaken the European lion because if we catch a whiff of opportunity, it could get lively. One should not make the mistake of thinking we are weak with the hindsight of two world wars, as we fought each other back then.
Now we are united in a union, have reasonable consensus, and some of the world’s strongest countries.
Nothing unites better than a war, and that is probably the concern the USA has, that we will unite completely now?
We want Ukraine in the EU, we need their defense, industries, raw materials, and knowledge of war – they will be a strong ally.
History has always been about war, and what we may be heading towards doesn’t deviate much from the timeline. We have only had 30 years of peace, and newer generations have forgotten what it’s like to live under the wet blanket of conflict.
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Good morning!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-04-17:
1230 KIA
16 Tanks
54 APVs
65 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
3 Anti-Aircraft systems
88 UAVs
170 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
3 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine!
Good morning,
A lot of thanks again today, we’ll see if the Russians have been on the offensive when 205th leaves a report.
Much tanks and armor. Which front section? Also a lot of rear artillery and vehicles.
From Gregg’s update 16/4
“4. Dniproenerhiia
The Ryzzars have concentrated a lot of troops and material here and launched a massive offensive with 25 armored vehicles and tanks. Our forces had information about the upcoming attack and took out all vehicles, then eliminated those who survived inside the vehicles one by one with FPV. After that, our forces attacked the Ryzzar positions and broke through, so now we have recaptured all the ground up to the river. Additionally, we are currently subjecting their service hub at Novoocheretuvate to a swarm attack of drones.”
Could be an explanation for the high losses of armor.
That was indeed very good news.
👍
Not reported by GeneralStaffUA🇺🇦, but there is a Ukrainian success reported in the DeepState on the 15th of April, the day before.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#15/47.9213019/36.8035813
Interesting reading! 👍
What the US doesn’t seem to understand is that China doesn’t adhere to democratic rules of the game.
Xi has full power over China. Of course, there is a risk of uprising, but he doesn’t risk being voted out, and with all the surveillance, etc., there probably won’t be more than a few demonstrations anyway.
Compare this to Russia, where many demonstrations broke out against the war in the first few days. No one dares to protest publicly anymore.
If China’s economy takes a hit due to the trade war, they will simply tough it out, and the propaganda will be in full swing. After a while, the majority of Chinese people will come to hate the US and blame everything on them, choosing to stick together.
If the US economy suffers, they will be voted out in the next election (and risk being hampered in the next midterm election).
China sees everything in the long term, they just need to wait four years for a change of power in the US.
I don’t think they plan to back down.
At the same time, they will, of course, minimize damage by finding other buyers and strengthening their position against the US. There has been a lot about European fashion in their propaganda lately. If I were them, I would instead target American brands but aimed at Europe and the rest of the world.
Why buy American when everything is manufactured in China?
Regardless, losing both the US and Europe as trading partners would probably be too big of an economic setback.
I don’t think China will want to ruin trade with Europe.
I don’t think Trump’s tariffs are sufficient for China to decide that war would be the best solution.
But we’ll see!
”Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” to quote Churchill, but democracy also requires long-term strategies in areas such as defense, foreign policy, trade, education, and the ability for a country to maintain a certain production of strategic products. Most leaders are aware of this, but as soon as a country reaches a certain level of prosperity, politicians start to neglect this in order to instead provide the population with entertainment. Suddenly, citizens develop different interests once their basic needs are met. Interests and worldviews that contradict the long-term strategies that once built the country.
Sometimes there are politicians who want to change these long-term strategies that have built a country. In such cases, it is important to also get the opposition on board with these ideas because otherwise, more harm than good is done, harms that are often extremely costly.
This is where China’s dictator has a clear advantage as he can plan for the long term.
First generation acquires
Second generation manages
Third generation squanders
Now are we well into the third generation after World War II?
There might be a lot of truth in that.
Then it’s probably also linked to the significant cost differences.
In a free market, the lowest price tends to win, and then you simultaneously import while shutting down your own production.
Globalization has its pros and cons.
Importing cheap goods is very good for consumers. Why be afraid for a few thousand Volvo workers when several million Swedes can have the joy of buying super cheap cars? That’s the theory, and there is a grain of truth in it, but it only works with sensible countries and as long as you have the power to come up with something even more valuable to produce. And there is never a reason to give away trade secrets on how to manufacture good products in the naive way Europe has done.
👍
Update from 08:00 on 17.04.2025 regarding the Russian invasion
A total of 125 (111 (99)) combat actions have taken place in the past 24 hours.
#Kharkiv 2
#Kupyansk 5
#Lyman 16💥
#Siverskyi 9↗️
#Kramatorsk 5
#Toretsk 13💥
#Pokrovsk 29💥💥
#Novopavlivka 15💥
#Huliaipil 0
#Orikhivsk 6↗️
#Prydniprovsky 3
#Kursk 14💥
In the Kharkiv sector, AFRF🇷🇺 stormed AFU🇺🇦 positions near Vovchansk and Zakhidne twice.
In the Kupyansk sector, there have been five attacks by AFRF🇷🇺 in the last day. AFU🇺🇦 repelled enemy attacks near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and towards Petropavlivka.
In the Lyman sector, AFRF🇷🇺 launched 16 attacks and attempted to advance near the settlements of Nadiya, Novosergiivka, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nove, Olhivka, and Zelena Dolyna.
In the Siverskyi sector, AFRF🇷🇺 attacked Ukrainian troops’ positions nine times in the areas of Hryhorivka, Ivan-Daryivka, Vyymka, and Verkhnekamianske.
In the Kramatorsk sector, five firefights were recorded near Chasovyi Yar, Kurdyumivka, and Stupochky.
In the Toretsk sector, AFRF🇷🇺 carried out 13 attacks near the cities of Toretsk and Leonidivka.
In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 halted 29 attacks and offensive actions from AFRF🇷🇺 in the areas of Oleksandropil, Yelizavetivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Troitske, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Stara Mykolaivka, and towards Serhiivka.
In the Novopavlivka sector, AFRF🇷🇺 attacked AFU🇺🇦 positions 15 times near Kostiantynopol, Rozlyv, Pryvilne, and towards Bahatyr.
No combat actions with AFRF🇷🇺 were registered in the Huliaipil sector yesterday.
In the Orikhivsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 repelled six hostile attacks in the areas of Lobkove, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Stepove, and near Kamianske, Shcherbaky, and Maly Shcherbaky.
AFRF🇷🇺 carried out three offensives in the Prydniprovsky sector, without success.
In the Kursk sector, 14 firefights took place yesterday. AFRF🇷🇺 conducted 23 air strikes, dropped 37 guided bombs, and fired 413 artillery pieces, including 17 from multiple rocket launchers.
According to updated information, AFRF🇷🇺 conducted two missile and 94 air strikes on Ukrainian territory yesterday, using four missiles and releasing 154 guided bombs. Additionally, they deployed 2,764 kamikaze drones and fired 6,659 artillery rounds at Ukrainian troops’ positions and settlements, including 104 times from multiple rocket launchers.
AFRF🇷🇺 carried out air strikes particularly in the areas of Petrushivka, Osoyivka, Mala Rybytsia, Miropilske, Ryasne, Pokrovka in the Sumy region; Pokrovsk, Dovha Balka, Zorya, Nova Poltavka, Malynivka, Kalynivka, Shevchenko Pershe, Razine, Hrodivka, Zelene Pole in the Donetsk region; Komyshuvakha, Verbove, Lukyanivske, Stepnohirsk, Kamianske in the Zaporizhzhia region. Additionally, the enemy initiated an air strike with guided bombs on the city of Kherson.
In the past 24 hours, AFU🇺🇦’s air force, missile troops, and artillery targeted 19 areas with concentrations of personnel, weapons, and military equipment, three command posts, an air defense facility, three artillery systems, an ammunition depot, and an electronic warfare station.
👍
👍🏻
When it comes to nitrocellulose from China.
The USA is one of the world’s largest cotton producers and has a significant production of nitrocellulose itself.
When it comes to their military ammunition production, they are self-sufficient.
So why complain about not keeping up?
The USA has never anticipated a war like the one unfolding in Ukraine.
The USA would fight the war itself with air superiority and use all means.
Ukraine has not received all the means, and there is an artillery war being fought there.
The USA, just like Europe, has not prepared for this.
The lack of sufficient production in the USA is not due to the availability of Chinese nitrocellulose but rather because they do not have production adapted to the quantities required.
So why complain about China halting exports?
Some of the ammunition production in the USA aimed at the civilian market uses imported nitrocellulose from China because it is cheaper.
This does not affect the military industry.
Nitrocellulose is also used for many other purposes where the same standards of purity and quality are not required.
When reading about nitrocellulose shortages in the USA due to China, it is related to many other types of production, not just gunpowder.
If you follow the link in your post, it says:
“As a result, civilian ammunition consumers are likely to experience increased shortages and higher prices.”
It is the production capacity that is the bottleneck in US ammunition production, not nitrocellulose from China. Additionally, grenade production, which is much more complex, is a bigger bottleneck.
The USA probably doesn’t need a particularly long time if they want to expand nitrocellulose production. They already have the expertise (and it’s not exactly rocket science, pun intended).
However, Europe is in a really tough spot if China halts all exports. Then we must find other suppliers and probably be prepared to produce nitrocellulose from cotton linters ourselves.
Cotton linters are inexpensive and can be sourced from many other places (it is a byproduct when making cotton for textiles), but the challenge lies in producing nitrocellulose of a sufficiently high quality.
Exactly, and it is also possible to use other cellulose than cotton so cotton is not a critical resource. Bottlenecks in production are also not difficult to eliminate since the manufacturing processes are proven and well-known.
Yes, nitrocellulose is made from wood, hemp, etc. but for gunpowder production for military use, unfortunately, only cotton is currently relevant.
Other raw materials do not have a high enough purity (and contain substances not found in the cotton lint from cotton). It is possible to purify enough in the lab, but there are no large-scale facilities that can handle it, and even if there were, extra processes compared to cotton would be required.
It would be far too expensive.
Of course, a higher price may be justified if one becomes self-sufficient, but continued research and test facilities, etc. are still required, so it will probably be many years ahead.
Today, when using, for example, wood for nitrocellulose, a purity level of 80-90% is achieved.
It works well for everything else, but it contains high levels of lignin, resins, minerals, etc., and therefore must be further purified to be usable for gunpowder.
From cotton lint, a purity level of > 95% is already obtained.
For simpler civilian ammunition and practice ammunition, the less pure variant from wood is currently used on a small scale, mixed with the one obtained from cotton.
Good and interesting observations.
”Reverse Nixon”
”The “history” Trump refers to is President Nixon’s approach to Beijing in the early 1970s. The idea was that if the Chinese were brought in from the cold, China and the Soviet Union would drift apart and Moscow would weaken. In Maga circles, there is now talk of Donald Trump attempting a “reverse Nixon.” That is, behaving like his predecessor, but this time it is the Kremlin that should be pried away from China, and not the other way around. With that perspective, Trump engages in building trust when he fully embraces Putin and falsely claims that Ukraine started the war. Or when he imposes 10% tariffs on virtually the entire world, except on Russia and North Korea. And all this while tariffs on Chinese goods, at least as of this writing, are at 145 percent.
Because it is China that is the United States’ major enemy. This is one of the few opinions that Democrats and Republicans in Washington agree on. Beijing is a threat and a rival, militarily, in trade policy, and in the struggle for influence in the world. Together with Russia, Xi Jinping becomes even stronger. The two countries are already building what they call a “multipolar world order.” An alternative to the USA and the Western world, where they, among other things, attract members from the global south to organizations like BRICS and SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.”
Donald Trump’s goal: Divide Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping | Therese Larsson Hultin
https://www.svd.se/a/KM95Ao/donald-trumps-mal-splittra-vladimir-putin-och-xi-jinping
We should not forget that the Soviet Union and China interpreted the communist doctrine differently, and their relationship was really bad when Kissinger boarded the plane to Beijing. China was still heavily burdened by the aftermath of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.
It was already a challenge for the Nixon administration to drive a wedge between the countries, now it is much worse.
Links to FOI’s analysis of the relationship between Russia and China where the problem is explained.
https://www.foi.se/nyheter-och-press/nyheter/2022-10-28-kina-och-ryssland—vanner-eller-fiender.html
There may be something to it of course, but the situation was completely different in the 70s before the Soviet Union was divided.
I don’t think China is particularly dependent on Russia today. Like everyone else, it’s a cheap partner to import oil, gas, and minerals from. No more than that.
I rather think it’s about avoiding the alternative that could arise if contributing to Russia losing the war.
In the chaos that may arise, China could seize the opportunity to take a firm grip on Russia and essentially take over power.
This could happen economically, by helping with reconstruction in exchange for control and ownership, or by sending in “peacekeeping” troops to ensure the right person becomes president.
Or they might take the opportunity to annex territories, etc. Perhaps a combination.
It would truly strengthen China as they gain increased control over important raw materials, etc., and that’s probably what they want to prevent. Not that Russia is China’s friend.
Personally, I still find the logic flawed. Russia is not a country one wants to be friends with, and it’s Putin who started wars that led to economic problems affecting the whole world. Not China.
What is actually worse? Allowing Russia to become Chinese or remaining Russian under Putin’s leadership?
Trump seems to be blinded by jealousy over China, which has succeeded tremendously in becoming a cost-effective supplier to the whole world. It’s not China’s fault (even though they sometimes use unfair methods).
(Or maybe there are other factors behind his admiration for Russia.)
If Trump wants to achieve MAGA, he should start by rebuilding the USA, instead of now, trying to destroy for China and everyone else he accuses of exploiting the USA.
It’s not China’s, Europe’s, or the rest of the world’s fault that the USA wants to trade more with us than we do with the USA.
When it comes to China, Europe has been just as short-sighted in dealing with China, but we don’t blame them for it, do we? It’s our own problem, or rather a natural development when wages and costs differ so much between different parts of the world.
In the long run, it will self-regulate.
When everyone in China has a higher standard than those in the USA, it will be cheaper to trade with the USA than with China. 😀
Good angles.
Yes, Trump, as well as Europe, should undergo a reverse production outsourcing. In this way, we have weakened ourselves, and placed all innovative power in distant regions without any influence over product and production improvements.
Both the previous Trump administration and Biden began demanding production to be brought back home. How has Europe embraced the challenge?
In Sweden, we sold Volvo to China…
As I suggest below, an alternative could be for both the USA and Europe to engage with a collapsing Russia to strengthen the self-sufficiency of regions that were previously annexed by Russia/USSR – independent from both Moscow and Beijing. Perhaps with the same recipe that johanno1 suggests in Africa – favorable trade agreements. But for any possibility of Russia imploding to arise, it is necessary for Russia to be pushed out of Ukraine including Crimea, and for the West (USA/EU) to militarily and economically support regions that want to break free from a Russia weakened/expanded by the war in Ukraine.
Well, as mentioned, we in Europe have fallen into the same trap. (One of the mistakes is that we have also offered students from other countries free education here in Sweden).
The effects of a loss for Russia are of course difficult to predict. It is not 100% certain that Putin will fall (or not be replaced by someone else) and that Russia will indeed be wounded but still stand as it does today, or if chaos and breakout attempts will occur.
Regardless, I am on your track, that the USA and Europe would probably be able to find a solution for both Russia and any secessionists if the will exists.
Many Russians have had the perception that China is not really a friend of Russia but rather would prefer to take over as much as possible, but during the war, Europe and the USA have instead been portrayed as the enemy, so it is tricky to assess how collaborations would be received after a war.
I agree on what needs to be done. The best for everyone, including the residents themselves in Russia, is for the country to dissolve. However, it seems almost impossible to agree on how or even if it should be done.
PS It wasn’t Sweden that sold Volvo Cars to China, but AB Volvo sold it to American Ford Motor Company, which ten years later sold the company to Chinese Geely. Neither the then government nor the opposition had any objections, to be fair.
Good that you clarified that thing about Volvo. Private companies should of course largely be allowed to do as they please in a free market.
But it also makes one worry a little when the recent trend has been that everything is to be sold off.
Suddenly everything is Chinese. 😬
Both China and Europe can benefit from a collapsing Russia.
China can grab the eastern part and gain access to cheap energy and a coast towards the northern Arctic Ocean.
Europe can achieve democracy in Kaliningrad and Belarus, peace in Ukraine, and a western Russia fragmented into smaller states for trade. And get rid of the Russian threat.
What does the USA gain from a collapsing Russia? Here it is more uncertain, the military threat from Russia has been temporarily reduced, Russia’s influence in the Middle East is also declining. It simply isn’t worth it for the USA to weaken Russia if they can use them against China but also to divide the EU.
Good point and that is probably how Trump and his advisors reason.
Europe and China should not benefit from a defeated Russia, that is something we must put a stop to, no matter the cost.
They will have Europe and China against them, and that should be balanced by becoming friends with Russia?
It might have worked if the tightrope walker hadn’t wobbled back and forth as if after a better Friday night out.
😂
I absolutely think you hit the nail on the head there, unfortunately.
It’s like Expo, they exist because of right-wing extremism. If that disappears, Expo’s reason for existence ceases.
If RU ceases to exist, the US won’t need all the intelligence, military equipment, etc. that they have today. The Military-Industrial Complex ensures they are needed by portraying certain enemies.
Lobbyism at its finest!
Good reflections, as usual here on the blog. And then there are those nuclear weapons. It’s easier to keep track of them if they are in one country, rather than in 10 small countries. Trump wanting to ally with Russia against China is quite clear, but why he speaks negatively about Europe and Ukraine is harder to understand; it doesn’t benefit the USA, but rather China. He thinks that we will just sit still and become weaker when he pulls the USA out of Europe, but that’s not how it works. It seems like some of Trump’s actions follow a certain logic, while other things he does are just based on his whims. There are some people he trusts and listens to, unfortunately all dubious personalities. When he or his representatives have spoken with Putin, he repeats Putin’s ideas for a week, complains about Europe, and blames the war on Ukraine and NATO. When he talks to Navarro, it’s tariffs for a couple of weeks. Then Netanyahu calls, and he threatens Iran and bombs Yemen. And so on, and so on. It could also be part of his master plan, that no one should feel safe, everything can change tomorrow.
But I find it a bit hard to believe that he wants Europe to be weak. In that case, he would still be in Europe but perhaps reduce the strength and promise to come back if things were to heat up; now he instead demands 5% of GDP for defense.
I don’t interpret Vance’s view that it sucks that they have to bomb the Houthis when it’s mainly European trade going through the Red Sea as him hating Europe, as some headlines have suggested. Instead, I see it as Vance wanting Europe to take responsibility for its own security, meaning a stronger Europe.
Since 2020, I have seen at least two reports stating that the US military “only” can handle one war and two conflict zones simultaneously. I’m not sure how the US would classify Russia’s war in Ukraine from a resource perspective, but support for Israel is probably seen as a conflict. In that case, they have at best resources left for a war, where China is seen as the worst-case scenario and where it will likely require enormous resources. The USA simply cannot go all in and focus on the “war zone” in Ukraine, and as long as Europe cannot end the war in Ukraine (by kicking out the Russians), the USA will seek peace.
Interesting about the EU (but shouldn’t it be Europe, including GB?)… a awakened lion.
Yes, for the first time in world history, Europe is united and there is a likely development towards Europe collectively addressing the war in Ukraine, which as you say, could strongly contribute to further unity.
Why should China / Russia / USA fear a strong and united Europe? Regarding the USA, I mentioned above an analysis from today’s SvD that the USA is trying to drive a wedge between China and Russia. Where China is the major threat. How can a strong and united Europe hinder that stated goal?
In the analysis mentioned, the following possible reasons to fear a strong Europe are given:
“The irony is also that Trump’s attempts to isolate China rather strengthen the Middle Kingdom. The combination of the president’s arbitrary tariffs… makes the Chinese suddenly emerge as a more reliable trading partner… Even for Europe, the result of Trump’s policy could be a strengthening of the relationship with China. Last week, it was announced from Brussels that the EU and Xi will hold a summit this summer, just a few days after US Trade Minister Scott Bessent warned Europeans that Washington would react strongly if they made a ‘swing towards China’ and away from the USA.”
If China and Russia were to clash, this would benefit Europe and at the same time benefit the USA. An internally warring Russia can be seen as an attractive situation for a China burdened by trade tariffs. So, a way towards this (Russia imploding) could be for the EU to meet the USA halfway in tariffs against China while vigorously supporting Ukraine?
This does not exclude the possibility that Russian regions are helped to assert themselves not only against the former occupation regime of Russia but also against an approaching and hungry China? This is something that the EU/Europe and the USA can contribute to together…
Interesting, yes I do believe it would be better if the USA and Europe collaborated rather than the other way around.
Now there is a great risk that instead we are getting closer to China as long as China does not decide to “fight” economically against us as well (which I do not think they will take a chance on).
The question is how much, for example, China’s criticism of European luxury brands affects how Europe views China, or that they have stopped certain exports. I don’t really understand why China released the films, wasn’t the timing quite bad?
“Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to the economy, according to a new survey from the polling institute Morning Consult, which The Independent has access to.
This is the first time since 2021 that Republicans are not leading in the polls.
46 percent say that Democratic politicians handle the economy better, compared to 43 percent for Republicans.”
Ukraine publicly demonstrated its domestically developed Tryzub laser weapon system for the first time. Tryzub neutralizes a wide spectrum of airborne threats, including strike drones, guided bombs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at ranges of up to 3,000 meters; helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, and reconnaissance drones at ranges of up to 5,000 meters; optical systems on drones, missiles, and aircraft using a “blinding” function at distances of up to 10,000 meters. The Tryzub system mounted on the new Alligator 9 surface drone highlights its potential use in naval or anti-ship operations.
http://www.thelowdownblog.com/2025/04/new-ukrainian-anti-drone-plane-missile.html
Great! 👍
Wow
Works great against mosquitoes, reports DenGamle who happened to bring a copy of the system and has tried it at the summer place. Have you heard the reports of northern lights far south?
Ah, the pictures of the strange spirals in the sky. Not Space X but Mosquito X!
😂 I wonder if it also works on the neighbor’s wife?
The Economist updated its Trump approval tracker yesterday.
The numbers I reported last were from April 9th, with Trump at -7.7% (-4.9% before that).
By April 16th, it has dropped again and is now down to -10%.
The Economist has changed its graph to be fixed and based on the number of days since Trump took office, while also showing his previous term and those of Obama and Biden.
He is now polling lower than he did in 2017.
Considering that the population now seems to prefer the Democrats when it comes to the economy, the most important issue, things do not look particularly bright for Trump and the Republicans. But of course, there is still a long way to go until the midterm elections and a lot can happen.
Thank you 👍🏻!
I heard a Japanese political scientist(?) argue that the administration’s goal is first to lower the economy and then rev it up before the midterm elections, taking advantage of voters’ short memory. I don’t know if it works, but they certainly succeeded in incorrectly hammering home the message that the economy was doing poorly under Biden during last year’s election campaign.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the plan and that it will succeed. Voters have memories like a goldfish.
Classic politics, no difference between Sweden and the USA
Start with the stick and end with the carrot.
Don’t implement things where you have high confidence because then you have nothing to run for election on.
If the opponent comes up with a good proposal, go against it and bring it up yourself at the next election.
MXT, it does not work to insert bullets!
Point lists, you mean? Have discovered them too, will look into what it could be. Guessing it’s just a style sheet rule that makes them not visible.
Reports of another explosion near Moscow, this time near a warehouse. What is inside the warehouse and what caused the explosion is unknown.
“Finnish military warns: When Russia is done with Ukraine, they will come to us
– When Russia is done with Ukraine, that is, when they can withdraw their forces from the Ukrainian border, they will come to our border, says Virtanen.
However, he clarifies that the Russian presence is about testing NATO’s defense, and that a full-scale attack is “very unlikely.”
https://omni.se/finsk-militar-varnar-nar-ryssland-ar-klara-med-ukraina-kommer-de-till-oss/a/25eLgl
”Putin praises Musk as visionary, likens him to Soviet-era space icon Korolov. Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 16 lauded U.S. tech billionaire Elon Musk as a trailblazing visionary, comparing him to legendary Ukraine-born Soviet rocket scientist Serhii Korolov.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lmyh5irm3s2y
”Ukrainian delegation arrives in Paris for meeting with representatives of the Coalition of the Willing and the US, – Office of the President of Ukraine As part of the visit, a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings are planned with representatives of the Coalition of the Willing”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lmyj27hufs2u
”Ryska styrkor attackerade Dnipro med drönare under natten och riktade in sig på ett bostadsområde. Som ett resultat dödades tre personer, inklusive ett barn, och 30 andra skadades, varav fyra barn.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lmyjgnt5ik22
”Russians drop explosives from drone on ambulance in Kherson, with casualties reported #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lmyjw6zar527
”Another 🇷🇺Russian soldier on crutches tries to attack 🇺🇦Ukrainian positions”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lmykaa3zj22u
Does the pale bleakness of afterthought begin to affect Sullivan?
“Biden withheld ATACMS from Ukraine for 2 years due to weapon shortages, says ex-US national security adviser Sullivan. Support was “measured”—meant to help Ukraine without drawing the US into war. ”Did we learn? Were we willing to do things later in the war than we were earlier in the war? Yes.””
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmykyrdte22w
A fire is raging at CHP-26, a heat and power plant in Moscow. Firemen have trouble controlling the fire which is still ongoing. The cause of the fire is still unknown.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmyl4ebfxs2w
”A f*cking [military] unit is burning.” Russian Telegram channels report a new drone attack on the 112th Missile Brigade in Shuya, Russia’s Ivanovo region, which carried out a strike on the center of Sumy on Palm Sunday with Iskander-M ballistic missiles.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lmyl24nuuk24
“At night, the Ukrainian military shot down 25/75 Russian UAVs, another 30 UAVs were lost in location due to EW action”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lmym3llxh22u
‘The F**king Guys Are Dying!’ – Intercepted Call Reveals Chaos and Command Breakdown in Russian Army”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/50906
“Ukrainian military from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade destroyed a 🇷🇺Russian Z-STS “Akhmat” armored vehicle in the Toretsk direction”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lmyrxrbfus2u
The Russians are once again taking some ground. DeepStateMap from yesterday.
“The enemy advanced near Kotliarivka and Zaporizhzhia.”
Today’s figures right now:
USD -> Ruble: 82.03 (-1.17%)
USD -> Euro 0.879 (+0.17%)
USD -> Yuan 7.348 (-0.0025%)
Crude Oil: 63.15 (+1.04%)
Sad to see oil rise.
“Two Ukrainian Su-24M bombers eliminating a Russian tank platoon. 61st Mechanized Brigade “Stepova”, 2022, Kherson.”
“🤯🇺🇸 Northrop Grumman missile plant exploded in the US.
The building of the Northrop Grumman plant, which produced intercontinental ballistic missiles, was completely destroyed by the explosion.”
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1912797716389715978?t=SoAb6tZXTJ8x8UHlZPeMaA&s=19
Fantastic 👏 🛩️ 🛩️ 💣 💣 💥 💥 🔥 🔥
Ended up wrong….
😱😱😂
😂
Has the HSE team been laid off due to lack of loyalty?. 😶
It’s going to be a Thursday party today 🥳
Glory to Ukraine 💛💙
Cheers! 🍻
I myself will wait until tomorrow.
Cheers 🥃 🥃 🍻
The order of 400 million USD for Cybertrucks to the state that Trump arranged + the advertisement outside the White House wasn’t enough then? 😄
“Reports: Tesla lowers production goals for Cybertruck”
https://omni.se/a/GymzRQ
“The Supreme Court of Russia has decided that the Taliban, who rule Afghanistan, are no longer blacklisted or considered a terrorist organization in the country, writes AFP.”
Freaking nice poles Putin is getting. Only ISIS is further down in the shithole.
🤯 The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation has permitted the activities of the Taliban in Russia.
❗️Before this, the organization was recognized as terrorist and banned.
On the way to Ukraine to replace the North Koreans?
Maybe there are prisons that need to be emptied in Afghanistan?
🇫🇷🇺🇸 Macron met with Rubio and Witkoff in Paris for talks on Ukraine. Ahead of the meeting, Macron held a phone call with President Zelensky, per Sky News.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmz3gupejs2w
Let’s hope that Macron doesn’t back down to save the sales of wine and cheese to the USA. Getting some MAGA vibes from him.
What do we think? Can Meloni surprise again? I thought she was a Putin sympathizer before she won the election but it turned out to be the opposite. Moreover, she is someone who doesn’t beat around the bush but says it straight out.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 Trump: “There will be a trade deal with the EU 100%, they want to make one, we are going to make a trade deal before 90 days.
🇨🇳 “We will have a deal with China,” — Trump
🇮🇹 Trump on Meloni: “She is one of the real leaders of the world.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lmzl6nkkjs2n
Meloni manages to charm most people, believing she has a better chance than Macron or Ursula to achieve a positive result.
Working on well with 🍷 and 🍺.
Feeling the buzz kicking in.
Gold star FIM, gold star 👍✊
Haha. The neighbor just left.
Feeling strong.
No Caribbean rum at home 🙁
👍
It is completely fucking horrible, but the USA voted together with Russia, Belarus, and a number of other suspects not to support a UN resolution condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. China was among the countries that abstained from voting.
Horrible is the word.
One can clearly see whose side that regime is on.
54th APV 💥💥✊
Kill’em all 💥
⚡️ Ukraine repels Russian offensive near Pokrovsk, killing 200 Russian soldiers, Zelensky says.
According to Zelensky, Ukrainian forces killed around 200 Russian soldiers and injured 30 others, as well as destroyed 115 units of Russian military equipment.
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lmznctk23s2m
The Russians will soon have to climb over all the Russian bodies to carry out their meat attacks.
The UA’s advantage is absolutely enormous.
Same as Gregg writes about?
“Vadim’s battalion and unit belonging to the National Guard’s 14th Brigade gave me the best of all presents today. The brigade came under a massive attack by the tourists today, but they repelled the entire assault and eliminated over 240 Ryzzars. After the attack, they picked up the fallen Ryzzars and went through their phones. The first video was found on a Ryzzar soldier’s phone where he films how the attack starts. You can clearly see how the Ryzzars try to move due to lack of armored vehicles. The first obstacle is the NATO barbed wire, then they come along the road towards our positions. The brigade also eliminated 96 motorcycles, 21 different armored and semi-armored vehicles, 2 Lada cars, and 2 artillery systems. All of this is confirmed in a telegram by Brigade General Oleksander Pivnenko.”
In the video, you first see someone on a motorcycle (dirt/enduro?) driving into the barbed wire, falling over, rolling away from the barbed wire, then more motorcycles come one after the other driving over the motorcycle in the barbed wire, using it as a “bridge” across.
One gets some GoT vibes, Battle of the Bastards, when Jon Snow climbs over the pile of bodies.
🇨🇳❗️🇺🇦 “China supplies artillery and gunpowder to Russia,” — Zelensky
🗣️ “During conversation with Xi Jinping, he promised that he would not sell or send weapons to Russia. But, unfortunately, we are seeing different information now…”
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3lmzj3cijes2n
Is Zelensky’s attack on China a flirtation with the USA?
China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, a lot of food goes there. If China also boycotts Ukrainian goods, the world will have to change a lot of supply chains.
A very large part of the USA’s exports to China consists of grains and oilseeds, just like Ukraine’s exports. A halt would mean quite significant changes in global trade.
Almost makes me wonder if it wouldn’t be better if Zelensky flirted with China.
My feeling is that Trump has already decided to ally with Russia and that mineral agreements etc. are just a way to get a good deal, and will not lead to any increased support from the USA.
🤡 “There were no new decrees from Putin regarding the moratorium on strikes,” — Peskov
❗️The 30-day ban on strikes expired on April 17, because Putin believes that he started it on March 18. Ukraine believes that the 30-day energy moratorium has been in effect since March 25.
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3lmzfempml22n
Feels a bit messy, probably easy to happen when Trump is involved 😳
It’s embarrassing when the parties don’t even know which dates apply.
It’s like that when the world’s best peace negotiators are in charge.
🤯🥩 Students in Russia who fail their exams may soon be mobilized. One federal university in the Sverdlovsk region has received an official proposal.
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3lmzrkebgls2n
It will probably increase study motivation.
Or lower the quality of the mobilized! 😄