There simply isn’t much happening in Ukraine in terms of major movements.
I was quite convinced that RU wouldn’t be able to handle their offensive operations beyond Trump’s appointment and that it was Putin who desperately needed a break.
RU’s offensive started in the fall of 2023, and then UA managed to dampen it a bit inside Ukraine with the help of Kursk, but RU losses have been extremely high on a monthly basis, almost peaking at nearly 50,000/month before Christmas, and RU has absorbed this.
Russian recruitment seems to have been excellent, with an increase of over 100%.
North Korea has alleviated the material shortage, and China is secretly providing support – most recently, Ukrainian forces found a couple of Chinese AKMs.
And hundreds of Chinese volunteers in addition to the NK soldiers, where the entire command structure of the 11th AC is in Kursk (or was, I don’t know), so it is reasonable to assume that the entire 11th AC had the northern front as their destination.
I have long argued that RU would be able to handle a low-intensity war as a forever war but not a high-intensity war, and that if Ukraine could just keep up the pressure, it would become unsustainable for Putin.
Clearly, that is not the case, and Putin has managed a sustained long offensive since the fall of 2023 with no signs of slowing down – no matter how poorly it goes.
The war has been going on long enough for Russia to get organized, that’s the only conclusion, and they can engage in high-intensity combat over time as well.
They have started at the Southern front, and UA has retreated from Kursk (although I am convinced it was politically motivated – Trump did not acknowledge it with a word, so it became worthless as a bargaining chip).
Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop there – RU’s war material production has started somewhat with hundreds of newly produced units per year of various models.
This new material likely went to the newly established units against the Baltics and Finland, which are currently two divisions and an army corps fully equipped and trained in 2025 warfare, with the core being veterans from Ukraine who learned the hard way.
The Baltics are warning about these units, and Europe warns that within a few years, RU will be ready to start major wars with Europe – far beyond a small beta test in some nature reserve.
And they managed to build this up in the midst of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
We laugh ourselves hoarse at all the crutches and T54-55, but evidently, they can handle the situation with that equipment and at the same time build up a fairly substantial offensive reserve that worries the Balts, Finland, Poland, and some countries in Europe.
We have discussed the upcoming escalation in the fall, so we don’t need to delve deep into that, but in Kaliningrad and Belarus, there will be SECONDARY units and Chinese SOF there for training – you know, the tripwire that we think we have in the Baltics but that Europe will have to follow to avoid China threatening war.
Kaliningrad has some kind of autonomous status, and Belarus is neutral, and Trump won’t intervene, so it’s up to Europe to make the tough decisions – he will probably oppose us.
The attack will come towards eastern Baltics to test NATO and Europe’s resolve, and perhaps towards Svalbard.
They want to see if NATO and Europe are ready or not, and then there should be unrest in the markets as a result of the attack. I have guessed that the USA wants this, so the risk is shifted to Europe.
We have gone through countless times that the best business for Europe is for Ukraine to defeat Russia and make the country turn inward into domestic chaos, and the longer it takes, the higher the risk for Europe.
Today, RU has extensive plans to escalate the war into Europe, and Trump has made a real kickstart.
We have discussed Europe’s weaknesses since 2022, such as importing too much, and now China is starting to move, but whether they are a threat to us or not is still unknown. Some caution should be exercised.
UA is hitting hard at China, and I’m not clear why – I guess it’s to appease the USA?
Ukraine is under heavy pressure from Trump, who this week wants various answers and a signature for the colonization agreement. UA goes to the media and says they don’t have the mandate to negotiate away the country, but if they agree to a ceasefire and then Europe sends some kind of peacekeeping force, it’s de facto exactly what they’ve done. Possibly an unpopular decision that Trump and Russia will capitalize on.
Russia did not respect previous ceasefires, and then they ignored their own Easter ceasefire or used the time to strengthen themselves.
Ukraine has respected both, that we know – not many refineries knocked out in the last month or how 😶
And Kriegsforscher confirmed that his units laid down their weapons.
Europe has not been able to rise up so far, I think it’s clear, even though everyone is doing just like with the Baltics now and have schedules for several years in such activities that must be completed by this summer.
Until 2024, Ukraine had two enormous problems – material and personnel supply.
In the summer of 2024, Zelensky announced that the problem was solved, but it wasn’t, and we read about brigades with only 300 soldiers still defending an area for a whole brigade.
And late 2024, the material shortage hit again, and then briefly in 2025. Spring 2023 – New Year 2023 was a veritable desert walk, and 2024 wasn’t much better even though it started in the fall of 2024.
Ukraine has been denied the opportunity to fight in a way that they could win in a COMPLETE war – the examples are endless, and the article in the NYT confirmed our worst fears.
Trump has thrown even more sand into the machinery and hopes for a domestic collapse in Ukraine, I guess, election, humiliate Zelensky, demand resignation, and generally convey that it is Zelensky who is ruining Ukraine. Ukraine is lucky that the opposition is sensible.
Since 2022, Europe has missed –
-Increasing production
-Securing critical war materials
-Providing voluntary recruitment to Ukraine on a large scale through incentives (salary and pension from the home country)
-Being clear enough.
-Stop buying Russian – oil and LNG for billions of EUR as recently as the end of 2024.
-Sending the right weapons at the right time.
-Listening to Biden.
Today in 2025, the shock finally came with Trump, but nonetheless, we have not managed to agree on the difficult issues.
Today, I understand that troops in Ukraine mean “peacekeeping” without discussing peace in detail.
It’s only Trump’s proposal on the table here about German division.
IF we move towards a ceasefire in Ukraine as currently discussed, then the USA and Russia have won, and Europe has lost.
And it will only go downhill from there.
As usual, hope lies with Ukraine, which has absolutely prepared for offensive operations, and if Trump can be ignored, GUR can really start buzzing around.
The drone war, we also know, is deadly even if Trump got rid of it for a month.
But Europe MUST start taking its damn responsibility, you can only back off until you hit the wall then you either fight or let yourself be killed.
We are months away from a country in the EU, Europe, and NATO being attacked and unfortunately our defense forces are not ready for war in 2025.
It is UNBELIEVABLE to me that Ukrainian instructors are not present throughout the EU teaching us about war in 2025.
What could happen here unfortunately is that RU launches an offensive and takes a few miles into the Baltics and then goes on the defensive, and how Europe plans to retake that land is unclear and above all – is it possible?
In the worst case, it will be a re-run of Ukraine’s spring offensive in 2023 and then we will be terrified and cowed.
The trick is presumably to ensure that the Russian bastards do not come many meters over the border because there are deep minefields there and about 30 brigades from Europe.
But now today, a few months before the presumed Russian offensive, there are no minefields and no brigades in the area…
Now you finally have the chance to show appreciation to MXT and his work on the website and then the daily (well…) yellow posts – IT has installed a donation button on johanno1.se, if you look around a bit you will see a QR code.
There is also a donation page for Ukraine on johanno1.se with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.
On Substack – there is still a chance to follow and become a paying subscriber if it feels more right to go that route which some have done.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
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Hover over your name at the top right, select edit profile, and you will then find the setting under the language settings heading.
Good morning!
Russian losses in Ukraine:
SLAVA UKRAINI!
Very high rear, full tanks (compared to APVs). KIWRA on last year’s normal.
Continuing to go hard at the artillery – exciting 🧐
AFU: “In total, 144 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.
But they need 6 each per meeting compared to 1 before due to EW.
Update from 08:00 on 23.04.2025 regarding the Russian invasion
A total of 144 (165, 96, 127, 162, 143, 125, 111, 99) combat actions were registered during the past day.
#Kharkiv 4↗️ (0, 1, 2, 7, 1)
#Kupyansk 3 (2, 1, 7, 11, 4)
#Lyman 14↘️💥 (25, 12, 14, 17, 20)
#Siverskyi 3 (2, 3, 2, 2, 2)
#Kramatorsk 6 (4, 5, 7, 6, 8)
#Toretsk 13↘️💥 (23, 10, 18, 26, 11)
#Pokrovsk 53💥💥💥 (61, 39, 54, 64)
#Novopavlivka 17💥 (19, 5, 12, 9, 9)
#Huliaipil 0 (0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
#Orikhivsk 5↗️ (3, 4, 3, 3, 1)
#Prydniprovsky 0 (2, 0, 0, 0)
#Kursk 22💥 (21, 16, 20, 23, 21)
In the Kharkiv sector, the enemy attempted to break through our defenders’ defensive lines in the Vovchansk area four times.
Three attacks took place in the Kupyansk sector yesterday. Our defenders repelled the enemy’s attacks in the Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka areas.
In the Lyman sector, the enemy launched 14 attacks. They tried to break through our defense in the Kolodyazi, Nadiya, Novomykhailivka areas, and towards Olgivka, Glushchenkove, and Novosergiyivka.
In the Siverskyi sector, the enemy made three attempts to advance in the Hryhorivka and Verkhnekamianske areas.
In the Kramatorsk sector, the occupiers attacked six times in the Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Mayske areas.
In the Toretsk sector, the enemy carried out 13 attacks in the Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk areas, and towards Shcherbynivka.
In the Pokrovsk sector, our defenders stopped 53 of the attacker’s assaults in the Berezivka, Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Novoukrainka, Shevchenko, Vodiane Druhe, Malynivka, Yelizavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Troitske, Andriivka areas, and towards Novopavlivka, Romanivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Myroliubivka, Novomykolaivka. According to preliminary estimates, Ukrainian troops killed 118 passengers and injured another 95 in this sector. Three vehicles, nine motorcycles, two UAV control points, a lightly armored tractor, 12 UAVs of various types, and two satellite communication terminals were destroyed. Two vehicles, one tank, and three artillery systems belonging to the Russian occupiers were also severely damaged.
In the Novopavlivka sector, the enemy carried out 17 attacks in the areas near Kostiantynopol, Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Oleksiivka and Odradne.
In the Orikhivsk sector, occupation forces advanced five times towards our defenders’ positions near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, and Pyatikhatky.
The enemy did not carry out any active offensive actions in the Huliaypillia and Prydniprovia sectors.
No signs of hostile offensive groups were detected in the Volyn and Polissya sectors.
Ukrainian defense forces continue their operations in the Kursk region. Yesterday, the enemy conducted 15 air raids, dropped 36 guided glide bombs, and fired 344 times, including seven times from multiple rocket launchers. Ukrainian defenders thwarted 22 invaders’ assault operations.
Our soldiers inflicted significant losses on occupation forces in personnel and equipment and actively undermine the enemy’s offensive potential.
According to updated information, the enemy conducted 125 air strikes against Ukrainian units’ positions and populated areas yesterday, releasing 242 guided glide bombs. Additionally, they carried out 6,019 attacks, including 150 from multiple launch rocket systems, and used approximately 2,800 kamikaze drones for attacks.
The attacker conducted air strikes in particular in the areas of Boyar-Lezhachi, Petrushivka, Ugroids, Miropilske, Prokhody in the Sumy region; Pokrovsk, Udachne, Novomykolaivka, Sukhyi Yar, Zorya, Vodyane, Hrodivka, Krasny Yar, Oleksiivka, Novopavlivka, Bahatyr, Novopil, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Yablunivka, Yalta in the Donetsk region; Bilyakivka, Dnipropetrovs’k region; Zaporizhzhia, Gulyaypole, Novodarivka, Lobkove, Kamianske, Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia region; Ivanivka, Kherson region.
In the last 24 hours, the armed forces’ aviation, missile forces, and artillery hit 19 areas with concentrations of personnel, weapons, and military equipment, four artillery pieces, an air defense system, and a hostile command post.
Thank you! 👍
Thank you 👍🏻
Thank you – looks like RU has renewed the offensives again?
Now with repairs until it’s knocked out
UA goes hard against China and I’m not clear why – guessed that it’s to appease the USA?
Otherwise, it would be a shame not to point out that the USA’s/Trump’s enemy #1 is wreaking havoc on the Russian side in the war. Yes, and Russia has also sided with the USA’s enemy #2 🇮🇷. The message may need to be hammered in until it reaches all the way into the administration.
Well, but to actively get China against oneself is not a solution to anything, I think?
UA has been extremely cautious with the USA, for example.
“So that is clearly not the case and Putin has managed a sustained long offensive since the autumn of 2023 that shows no signs of abating – no matter how poorly it may go.
The war has lasted long enough so that Russia has gotten its act together can only be the conclusion, and they can also fight high-intensity over time.”
It’s important not to underestimate the enemy! I received that advice early in the war from a military colleague and later on from a superior officer.
The problem is that the West has slowed down Ukraine until RU managed to get organized.
And now we are there.
Important not to underestimate those who should have been our friends is probably what we should write 😀
RU stood against the ropes several times but Ukraine did not yield.
Good post today Johan! 👍
We have been critical of the fact that too little is being done and too late ever since the war started. When Trump won the election and then took over as president, Europe finally began to realize that Ukraine will probably have to manage without their support.
Almost every European leader stood up and declared clearly that they would not betray Ukraine regardless of the USA. They have been saying all along that they support Ukraine for as long as needed, so nothing new really, but it felt like they finally started to realize that it’s time to take this seriously.
Unfortunately, there is still hesitation, no one is willing to send in troops other than for peacekeeping if there were to be peace. No major deliveries beyond the usual have been announced and the deliveries continue. So far, we have not seen a transition from words to action.
I am afraid that Trump’s dismal peace efforts have caused people to wait and see how it ends.
The positive thing, however, is that it seems like production is starting to ramp up. Germany will eventually send Taurus, even if it’s not a “wonder weapon” and they probably don’t have enough to make any real difference now (it would have been different a year ago), it is still symbolically important.
Europe’s leaders and military realize that a Russia allowed to defeat Ukraine and whose war industry is running at full speed poses an enormous risk to the whole of Europe. Putin has crashed Russia’s economy and will have a tremendously difficult time transitioning, why would he stop if he achieves a victory?
I still believe that this can be turned around, it’s just a matter of being able to set aside Trump’s peace negotiations when they have completely failed, and then roll up our sleeves and get to work.
Exactly – the USA must be out of the equation, Then this can resolve itself for the best.
Yes, the obstructive behavior must come to an end, but if one feels frustrated, it will probably also put an end to weapon deliveries and intelligence information from Uza. We should be able to deliver the weapons, if we just pull ourselves together, but what about satellite data and other intelligence material, can we deliver that? Additionally, we must also consider that frustration leaks information to Putler in “confidence” in the same way that Hegseth shared information with his wife.
“4 killed, 88 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lnhleidynw2k“
It is too easy to circumvent the sanctions. I don’t understand why stricter controls are not being implemented.
Overall, more resources are needed for goods inspections at our borders, not only regarding Russia but also concerning drugs and weapons that seem to enter the country without major issues other than occasional crackdowns.
“Sanctioned Russia and Belarusian wood being smuggled into UK, study suggests #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lnhka2s7i227
Deep crisis within the Russian coal industry which is now losing money as costs exceed revenues.
“Russian coal region – Kuzbass Due to the fall in world coal prices, the region is in deep crisis. The 2024 budget is reduced to a deficit of 70 billion rubles. Revenues – 227 bil. Expenses – 298 bil Instead of providing assistance through Sberbank, the federal center issues loans at 24.1%”
Nice graph:
https://bsky.app/profile/evgen-istrebin.bsky.social/post/3lnhghwfgek25
A good overview of Trump’s peace plan:
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-russia-ukraine-peace-plan-crimea-donbas
I don’t quite agree with Johan. There are indeed objective signs that the Russians have weakened. At least on the ground. They are attacking with smaller forces. Almost at a group level in places like Pokrovsk. And they are attacking without armored protection. Most of the APCs seem to have been shot down. Now they are coming on motorcycles. The meat wave attacks seem to have practically ceased. And Ukraine’s drone operators are skilled. Any Russian tanks are buried far from the actual front line. But the attacks come in large numbers every day, as it looks on several fronts. Even though they are small. The front is essentially still at the moment. The Russians are keeping up appearances when it comes to attacking power until it collapses.
However, the Russians still seem to be strong in the air with constant air attacks against entrenched Ukrainian forces. Add to that missile attacks on civilian targets. It takes a toll on Ukraine, which, however, seems to have boosted its F-16s and is skilled at hitting the rear-positioned Russian resources.
After Bakhmut 2023, many of us believed that the Russians were starting to lose momentum and we hoped for a Ukrainian spring/summer offensive. There was a small offensive, but it didn’t achieve much, and in October 2023, the Russians stepped up a gear and have since continued without any real pause.
Kursk made them pause, but even there they managed to regain almost everything in the end. Ukraine managed to gain ground at the beginning, but that was probably largely because the Russians were unprepared. Apart from that, Ukraine has not made any decisive progress.
On the other hand, as you mentioned, the Russians appear weaker and weaker, but they keep pushing on and are slowly taking some ground. Ukraine fights back, and sometimes they manage to regain a few meters, but if the Russians were to reach a real low point, Ukraine should have gained a greater advantage at some part of the front line.
Of course, it may also be the case that even the Ukrainian army is starting to become seriously worn out.
I think both you and Johan are right, in slightly different ways!
If they were weak, they wouldn’t have built up a strategic offensive reserve – that’s the reasoning I’m thinking of.
Now this is not intended for Ukraine but the Baltics, but RU is in no way overwhelmed by the war in Ukraine right now.
To go out hard and raise the stakes can work, but then it’s important that the opponent doesn’t see through the bluff. So far, it seems to be Trump who has to back down as he completely misjudged the consequences. Then, of course, it may still end with a slight “tariff advantage” for the USA when the counterparts are scared off by his high-stakes game. The problem is probably that trust has been lost and that the profit from tariffs rather negatively affects the US economy.
“The level of the USA’s 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods is to be ‘significantly reduced,’ says Donald Trump according to Bloomberg.
– We will be very nice, and they will be very nice, then we’ll see what happens, says Trump.
The statement from the American president comes after his finance minister, Scott Bessent, reportedly said in the media that a trade war against China is unsustainable and will be de-escalated.”
How the hell can Trump have the bad judgment to first impose sky-high tariffs on China and then talk about kindness and negotiations? If I were China, I would feel so damn offended by that behavior. Who does Trump think he is? The number one world leader that everyone should bow down to? The USA is in crisis, that’s what everyone who has been there says. And the country has been in crisis long before Trump. The country has become a culture of hoodies. Real estate billionaire and the old boxer Sven-Olof Johansson (Fastpartner) has recently been to the USA and when he came home, he expressed that the USA is on the decline. I think I read that in DI.
Friskt vågar hälften vunnet fungerade inte och USA är svagare än innan.
Freshly dares half won did not work and the USA is weaker than before.
It can be so simple that Trump doesn’t have the faintest idea what he’s doing, and has listened to those who buttered him up the most, but actually wants to drive the USA into the dirt, like putler.
Or maybe it’s that he has a vague goal, a USA as he remembers it, disturbed best and most beautifully, in the 50s, and then someone mentioned tariffs in the same sentence as he praised Trump’s ability to do business.
Or it’s a combination of both, or something completely different.
Even when it comes to Powell, he came out strong but had to back down. However, he can’t admit that, so of course he has to lie and say that he never intended to fire him.
“Trump: Never had plans to fire Powell
– I have no plans to fire him, says Trump to reporters in the White House according to the news agency.
– None at all. Never have, emphasizes the president in a follow-up question according to CNBC.”
🤣🤣🤣
He has probably forgotten, it was several days ago.
😂
Another setback for Trump. Suspect that it will be appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court where he has a chance to win.
“A federal judge has halted Donald Trump’s decision to shut down the radio channel Voice of America, reports The Hill. According to the judge, the decision likely violates the law.
The agency that operates the channel has now been ordered to ensure that the broadcasts resume and that the employees who have been laid off are rehired.”
https://omni.se/domare-stoppar-trumps-beslut-att-stanga-radiokanal/a/GyAByl
He still controls the Supreme Court
Good news!
BAE Systems has developed a new propulsion method instead of gunpowder, and moreover with a more efficient process. Presumably, they have modified the explosive used in the grenades in a way that gives them gunpowder-like properties in terms of energy content and combustion rates. Gunpowder is used specifically for propulsion and not as an explosive.
Moreover, it seems that they have already conducted successful production tests where manufacturing takes place continuously instead of, as today, in batches. This also means that they do not need to have huge facilities but can build several smaller ones and still achieve higher efficiency.
Of course, it will likely be considerably more expensive than gunpowder initially due to all the investments. Perhaps also slightly more expensive in the long run (gunpowder is remarkably cheap).
Regardless, this means that in the long run, we will not be dependent on importing nitrocellulose from the USA and China! Additionally, it will probably be much faster to set up new smaller factories.
This is related to the news that they would increase production 16-fold that came out yesterday, but if you read directly from BAE, the news was significantly more interesting than that:
https://www.baesystems.com/en/article/major-breakthroughs-in-uk-munitions-production
Very interesting! Different forms of nitrocellulose have been the basis since the 19th century so it’s about time.
Then we are not dependent in the true sense, we have been manufacturing both modern explosives and gunpowder since the 19th century without having to rely on imports from the USA or China. As usual, it’s about the fact that eternal peace arrived and knocked the legs out from under the business.
Very exciting MXT 👍👍
Much that is surprising, and it is precisely this with having to draw harder lines like democracies! We must get better at it and the tactic of taking one step at a time worked for #fckptn and now China is doing the same! The future is bleak if we do NOT act now, set a limit and put a stop to the coalition of Russians/Chinese! It IS that coalition that will attack and create WW3 if we do not stop the Russians. Xi is sitting in the background and stocking up on enormous amounts of weapons, learning (yes, the EU should be more present) If NATO is created, NATO must have a purpose that benefits sustainability and for sustainable peace, boundaries must be set! If we allow sneaking around, it will only get worse!
Exactly – low affective response has never worked
Yes, that’s how it is. We must with one voice declare that borders are sacred. Violation, even if it’s just in a small area, should be met with full force towards military installations on the Russian side of the entire border with Europe.
When we see Russia building up forces at the border, we should do the same, refuel the planes, load the bombs, sail out with ships and submarines. Spread films on the internet and in news broadcasts, repeat our promises of death to the Russians if so much as a drop crosses the border until every Russian from Leningrad to Vladivostok knows what will happen if Putin gives the order.
Apparently, the meeting in London between Ukraine and the West (today or tomorrow) regarding the peace proposal has been canceled and postponed. Russia has now also generously backed down from its claims on even non-occupied parts of Ukraine. However, talks are still scheduled to take place at a lower level.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-london-peace-talks-macron-starmer-zelenskyy-putin-latest-news-updates
👍👍
Thought-provoking post today johanno1. Trump is starting to reap the rewards of his policies now. The tariffs against China are being lowered, but first, China has stopped buying 90% of its meat from the USA and completely ceased importing soybeans from the USA while also tightening the supply of rare earth metals. A real Trump win in other words.
Trump has also smoothly assured us that he has no intention of firing the central bank’s chief. Another Trump win.
And now the meeting in London where Ukraine was supposed to capitulate to the Putin-Trump pact has been canceled. A deluxe Trump win.
I think I’ll stick to my previous assessment, Trump is an opportunist and if he faces too much resistance, he chooses to back down. As a bully, he knows to seek out the weakest and exploit them instead. Now he is flashing signals daily, and perhaps the canceled meeting is another signal. But of course, we’ll have to wait and see.
Högmod går före fall. På engelska: Pride goeth before a fall.
Yes, things have gone poorly for him, which is excellent.
If he can just let go of the peace mediation, Ukraine will win this because then all red cards will presumably disappear.
GUR is an unpleasant gang.
That he blinked at China is a threat to the entire West, so not just laughter.
There was a pump-and-dump of the stock market – it just keeps going up and down.
He drives in the Russian style.
Try with the bayonet, if it’s soft, move forward, if it’s hard, take a step back and try in another place.
If Russia enters the Baltics, the die is cast. No, NATO probably won’t try to push Russia out initially, but the Baltic Sea will be closed, which Russia must react to. Then a full-scale war is a fact. If Russia wants to test NATO, it will be in a different geographical area, in my opinion.
But Russia is not exactly known for acting rationally, so one should be prepared.
A serious question:
Can we gather together and raise money for a group to go to Ukraine and receive, at the very least, basic training in modern warfare?
How much could it cost per person?
NOTE! This is a serious question!
Interesting idea, I interpret it as you thinking that it’s something that we “grassroots” would organize ourselves?
The first step would probably need to be deciding what type and content the education should have.
It will probably be impossible to cover everything.
Is it more about theory, for example, about how to organize connections between all units based on information from reconnaissance drones, etc., and how it is then communicated between all units, from fire control of artillery units down to individual infantry groups.
Should it be more practical training, how to handle drones for reconnaissance or for taking out the enemy, etc., but also practice how it is used practically in different situations, for example, practicing attacks, clearing defensive positions, etc., with drone support?
Or should it be more at an overarching strategic and/or tactical level?
Once the direction and scope are roughly determined, in the next step, contact with someone in Ukraine who is knowledgeable and could possibly organize the training will probably be needed. Together, they will probably need to look at a training plan, as they are the ones who know best what has changed during the war and what is new compared to before.
Once a training plan is put together, they will also have an idea of what resources and time will be needed, so they can calculate what they want in return.
When they know how long it will take and the location they will be at, they can start calculating costs for travel and accommodation (and possibly lost income).
The risk is high that it won’t be possible to find someone willing to carry out the training from the Ukrainian military. It would probably be easier to find one of the volunteers who are there and already conducting training.
Someone has a camper van, we find a decent hotel and then some instructors who are probably not that expensive – quite affordable, reasonably.
“USA expects a response from Ukraine today regarding whether they will accept Donald Trump’s “final offer” for a ceasefire, according to sources for Axios.
The proposal, presented earlier this week, is a framework for a peace agreement with Russia. It includes, among other things, the US recognizing the Crimean Peninsula as Russian territory and Russia retaining the areas that have been occupied since the start of the invasion in 2022.
– The proposal clearly outlines the specific gains for Russia, but only vaguely and generally expresses what Ukraine will receive,” says a Ukrainian source to Axios.”
Many rumors are circulating. Concrete problems for the USA if they were to recognize certain Ukrainian territories as Russian include the fact that Congress has legislated sanctions due to Russia’s illegal invasion. The legislation is based on Ukraine’s territory not being allowed to be annexed or occupied by Russia, so if the USA really intends to change its stance here, Congress will likely need to approve it.
I believe it when I see it, but I consider it very unlikely. Such a change in course would probably also further weaken the USA’s position in the world and make a restoration almost impossible. But sure, the circus is in full swing and the clowns are freshly made up…
Trump will blame everything on Ukraine for the lack of peace.
The question is whether one will simply settle for backing out of the peace negotiations or if there will be a sour aftermath or an attempt to blackmail Ukraine to force them to comply.
He has already provoked China. If he were to drop UA and start cooperating with RU fully (according to the peace proposal) as a kind of revenge (like a 5-year-old who’s been peed on and is ashamed), I think China will have a thing or two to say about it. Will RU obey master Xi or will he bow down to Trump?
Xi remains in power, probably longer than Trump, will RU really focus on Trump?
I also believe that China has opinions about RU’s possible planned attack on a NATO country, they may allow a test of art. 5, but letting RU enter like UA, I think is hard to swallow for China. They would then lose a major market if the EU gives them the finger.
Yes, that’s the question. Putin knows that Trump’s time is running out and the next government will not continue the crap circus with Moscow. So he’s trying to get what he can while it lasts.
Several top officials are pulling out of the meeting in London regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, reports Sky News.
The initial plan was for ministers from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United States, and Ukraine to participate and discuss an end to the war. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced yesterday that he will not attend, and today the same message came from the counterparts of the other nations. This means that their meeting is now being postponed.
Great! 👍
What’s happening?
Rubio the first to back down?
If the leaked information was accurate, I guess Trump’s team has realized that the Sevastopol sketch won’t fly. Ukraine won’t give away land to Russia, and Congress won’t recognize Crimea as Russian. And Europe won’t recognize Crimea either or agree that a peace proposal means Ukraine “can” join the EU (Ukraine and Europe decide for themselves without US involvement).
If they were accurate, there’s a lot of disinformation in the air now.
“USA has presented a “very clear” proposal to Russia and Ukraine regarding a path to peace, says Vice President JD Vance according to Bloomberg. According to Vance, the countries now need to say yes to the proposal, otherwise the USA will withdraw from the process.
“The current lines, or somewhere close to them, are where ultimately, I believe, the new lines will be drawn in the conflict,” Vice President Vance told reporters in India on Wednesday.
However, freezing the lines would mean a much greater sacrifice for Ukraine than for Russia, as the country’s goal is to regain all the occupied areas in the eastern and southern parts, Bloomberg points out.”
Yes, that’s the plan.
And they will 100% blame Ukraine.
The shameful peace plan
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lnhywjz2hs2l
“AFU hit the field warehouse of the Russian Armed Forces with a precise strike.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lnhyv7tc3k2f
Have you noticed that Kursk has never been mentioned in any negotiations?
But Kharkiv is included – that little Russian pocket.
I assume that Ukraine will keep the part of Kursk that they still hold if Russia is to keep the parts that they hold, because surely Trump can’t be so darn unfair as to favor Russia???
Putler begins to feel cornered, so he is ready to back off in some area.
That “peace plan” contains what Putler wants, and what the Trumpet wants. They have not taken Ukraine into consideration.
Damn scumbags, a rapist should not have rights to their victim’s body. They should be publicly flogged and castrated 😡🤬💀
Unfortunately, it did not appear to cause any damage, but there may be more on the way.
“Drones were spotted near Alabuga Polytech in Russia’s Tatarstan, where the facility for assembling attack drones is located.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lnhxsw225g2y
This one they miss, at least on the first visit, you only see the drone flying around and not hitting anything.
“Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system can’t shoot down our drone.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lni3jijbcs2b
💥 It seems like something has been hit here:
“Reportedly, this footage shows the Alabuga plant after the drone attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lni3hlfcik2f
“That journalist Joakim Medin is now being prosecuted is a shift in his case. That’s what his boss and Editor-in-Chief of Dagens ETC, Andreas Gustavsson, tells the newspaper.
– From what is known so far, Turkey is trying to claim that all the journalism that Joakim Medin has produced about Turkey is acts of terrorism. It is obviously an absurd accusation, says Gustavsson to Dagens ETC.”
He apparently faces 12 years in prison.
The kebab vendor in Ankara becomes more rabid with each passing year!
I still don’t understand if there is a background story to this?
So he was arrested at the AIRPORT.
Normally, people are deported.
So…
What crime that carries a 12-year prison sentence did he commit at the AIRPORT?
It’s something we don’t know, and I think that if we are going to read about this case daily, it would be appropriate to have all the cards on the table.
And follow-up question – what was he there to do?
Were his contacts (if he had any) from the regime or from the opposition?
Why was he there?
He is a journalist, he was also in Kyiv when Russia attacked in February 2022.
He has been in Syria (where he was imprisoned for a week) when he was supposed to report on the situation of the Kurds.
Of course, Turkey does not want people to hear what the Kurds think.
Yes – and in Turkey, it’s probably them who decide, I guess, the Turkish government?
He is a journalist who has written negatively about Turkey and Erdogan and, among other things, interviewed his opponents, such as the commander of the Kurdish self-government.
He is accused of terrorism (including links to the PKK) and of insulting Erdogan.
It probably has nothing to do with what he has done in Turkey, as he was taken in for questioning immediately after landing, rather it is about the articles he had written before that.
Of course, Turkey denies it.
Wasn’t very difficult to find directly, just haven’t googled before 😂😂
Does it have ANYTHING to do with the situation?
PKK is an internationally recognized terrorist organization and he has visited them several times – connections with terrorists and the evidence is his own blog.
https://joakimmedin.se/tag/pkk/
Apparently, he is a freelance journalist and not sent with full accreditation from the media in Sweden?
I think this is irresponsible and naive behavior from those who sent him or if he went on his own initiative. Normally, you would sneak in to meet the people you want to see, and it seems like he has done that before.
Now he took the main entrance and was arrested – wasn’t he aware that Turkey had him on their radar?
He should reasonably have been aware considering that his entire blog is highly critical of Turkey.
No one goes to El Salvador with MS-13 tattoos or to Russia if they are a known Putin critic, for example.
It almost feels like the Green Party member who was in Congo for some aid organization and was supposed to expose corrupt politicians and then was found beheaded.
He seems to have a passion for the Kurds, and I’m a big fan of them too, but do you really need to take such personal risks for that?
A sensible media house does not send someone who is so critical of the country they are reporting from, they send someone else.
Therefore, there has been some speculation as to whether he went on his own initiative. How Gustavsson has expressed himself may, but not necessarily, indicate that.
Feels a bit like Chibbe and Chabbe who allowed themselves to be smuggled into Ethiopia from Somalia, only to later be arrested on suspicion of terrorism. When they were released, they had the nerve to criticize the current government for not doing enough.
How stupid can they get?
But the kebab sultan is terrified of the opposition.
Ah, so Erdogan and Turkey have done completely right and he simply has to blame himself?
Maybe 12 years in prison is even a bit too little when he has had the audacity to interview regime critics and write negatively about Erdogan?
No, they haven’t done right, but now we’re dealing with a dubious regime and then you have to think a little regardless.
It’s no news that this is how they treat opponents of the regime.
Want to bet that he will start complaining about the Government once they have set him free?
How you managed to make me think that it’s right is a mystery to me! Straw man?
Contact with the PKK or any other organization that Erdogan does not like. Turkey usually requests extradition when it comes to its own citizens (and they usually get rejected) but nothing prevents own or foreign citizens from being arrested on Turkish territory.
And in that context, we might expect Turkey to try to pressure Sweden to simply exchange him for PKK members in Swedish exile. Will of course not be packaged like that…
Wondering if he wasn’t a big game they want to keep?
Went through his blog and the focus was on Erdogan’s regime.
Maybe, then he will probably sit for a while.
Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says. “This so-called truce did more damage to us,” Anastasiia Blyshchyk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade, said.
“Our aerial reconnaissance recorded more than 120 Russian occupiers dispersing in plantations, forest belts, destroyed buildings, and dugouts during the so-called Easter truce.”
Blyshchyk added that once the truce ended, Russian forces launched a large-scale infantry offensive.
The Lyman sector in northern Donetsk Oblast remains one of the most fiercely contested areas along the front line. Its strategic importance lies in its proximity to key transport routes and logistics corridors.
The assault follows statements from Ukrainian military leadership that Russia’s anticipated spring offensive is already underway.
On April 9, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Moscow had begun its spring campaign, with intensified attacks across multiple sectors of the front line.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-used-easter-truce-to-regroup-in-lyman-sector-launched-offensive-after-military-says
So why is Ukraine proposing a 30-day ceasefire right now?
I think this is too messy.
Probably the whole Trump’s plan is for it to be messy for RU to thrive in chaos.
30-day plan is probably the only thing we can be sure has been on the table…? And then we know that Ukraine has so far accepted the US proposal while the Moscow empire has constantly come up with new additions and not agreed to the proposal.
My guess is that Ukraine continues to be positive because they are confident that the Moscow empire will not accept. Blame game.
Is there anyone who has links describing that offensive reserve that is supposed to be under construction?
I’m not as convinced as Johan that there will be an attack on the Baltic states and/or northern Norway and Finland this year, but I believe there is a significant risk. The reason is simple. The Moscow state has a golden opportunity this year. The US seems to have withdrawn, leaving all plans, logistics, and leadership in disarray. Europe’s military capacity is also at a low point. While the Moscow state’s military capacity may have been significantly reduced by the war in Ukraine, our situation is even worse. Putin can reasonably speculate on this. In a year, the situation will be much worse for him now that Europe has finally woken up. Why would the Moscow state wait patiently and build up for the 3-5 years that are being talked about, a period in which we could catch up and surpass them by miles? In 5 years, who knows, maybe Germany could take on the Moscow state all by themselves. No, if anything happens, it will be within a year, I believe.
I have posted the links before – google around on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and the development that RU is implementing when they are worried.
In for example SÖ Estonia there are no mine lines or bunker lines at all and they have a defense force of 6000 and maybe 100,000 reservists.
They cannot wage war in 2025.
Europe has not sent troops to eastern Baltics.
And so on.
Then maybe 2 divisions and an AC will be quite enough?
Not unlikely that we will see some new type of drones then?
Then Zelensky has warned that it is at 150,000 for that matter.
And one final point – if you want peace, prepare for war.
Oh, now they can’t sell off everything, prices would drop, but just in their gold reserve alone, they have enough to sustain the war for over 1.5 years (their military budget is around 140 billion USD per year).
“Due to the rise in gold prices amid the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, the value of Russia’s gold reserve began to grow sharply. And soon, the size of the reserves may reach $260 billion, which will make it easier for Russia to deal with crisis situations in the economy.”
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-gold-reserves-surge-why-putin-has-1744202381.html
Typical 😶
But then they have to pay in gold to someone who can convert the gold into a usable currency. Otherwise, the Russian coal miners will just have to accept gold coins as wages 😂.
😂
“I traded my coal for gold!!”
But it didn’t help, you can’t get full by eating either one or the other.
The question is whether you can get full by eating paper notes with dead uncles on them?
“Donald Trump’s recent speech about ongoing discussions and his belief that a trade agreement will soon be reached is “typical Trump” and his way of sending a signal to China, says Chen Zhiwu, professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
– The more he talks like this, the more it shows how worried the American side is. Trump and his team are under pressure, but China shows no signs of impatience, says Chen.”
Trump has believed that half the world will be scared by the tariff proposals and come crawling and asking for lower tariffs. China keeps a cool head and is tough. Now apparently the US is going to halve the tariff that was intended for China. It’s like the Kivik Market. You throw darts and take chances, and there are tricksters inside the area.
Alexander Bard (and probably others with him) described it as Trump being good at drama (getting headlines and appearing on TV) but worthless at dynamics (seeing what forces he sets in motion and how others will react).
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky repeats his demands for a ceasefire: Immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional, he says according to AFP.
– Ending the killing is the top priority, says the president.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko writes that Ukraine will negotiate, but not give up, writes Reuters.
– Our people will not accept a frozen conflict disguised as peace.”
I hope this is negotiation tactics…
Some numbers:
USD -> Ruble 83.4 (+2.30%)
USD -> Euro 0.88 (+0.03%)
USD -> Yuan 7.31 (+0.27%)
Yuan -> Ruble 11.4 (+2.31%)
Crude Oil, 63.45 (-0.33%)
Trump Approval Rating
Updated today and now he is at -13% (41% positive and 54% negative).
In the previous update on April 16, he was at -10%.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
Isn’t it strange that he still has 41%?
Then he must be making all the tough decisions now and easing up everything for the midterm election – they’re not completely stupid, are they?
Well, in terms of foreign policy, he has really lost it. But in terms of domestic policy, he can probably come across as a leader to many Americans when he takes on the liberal democrat-dominated complex within the media, education, and government administration.
That’s what I’ve tried to reason about that always attracts a lot of unfounded criticism – that he does what is right for the USA and maintains his popularity.
Just looking at the approval ratings of other presidents is enough to understand that he still has strong support.
I believe just like you, the USA is big and many people don’t care that much about the world while a lot of everyday politics is at the local level.
Translated:
Translated:
“After losing two thirds of its gas exports following a failed attempt to freeze Europe and accumulating a trillion rubles in net losses just last year, Gazprom is asking the government to lower taxes.
The company believes it is necessary to analyze the tax burden for Gazprom together with the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance and “make certain adjustments,” said Vitaly Khatkov, head of department 817 at the state-owned company, at the forum “Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the 21st Century” on Wednesday.”
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/04/23/gazprom-poprosil-snizit-nalogi-posle-ubitka-natrillion-rublei-zagod-a161809
Maybe it’s time for the Russian state to “investigate the corruption” in Gazprom and maybe send some suitable individuals to the Gulag or the front?
Still no Russian spring offensive in sight according to the General Staff’s 16th report (83 attacks since this morning). But it could be built up incrementally on various fronts.
We keep our fingers crossed that they don’t have the capacity.
Now that everyone has had dinner, is a bit full, and has had some quality time with the family, maybe we can discuss the likely approaching war in Europe and the Nordic region.
It’s urgent. That’s why I bring up the question of whether we should voluntarily update our knowledge of war, similar to when Ukraine provided its citizens with quick basic courses in warfare.
So, with that said, the question remains:
A) Does anyone have contacts in Ukraine so that we could arrange for one or more instructors?
B) How many are willing to go to Ukraine for about a week of training?
C) How can we finance this in a reasonably painless way?
These are serious issues that we need to address immediately. Otherwise, there is a high risk that we (to quote JohanNo1) “stand in the November rain at a weapons depot and fumble with an AK”.
So, it’s urgent. It’s not something we can postpone for “another day”. We don’t have time.
One idea would be to contact one of the organizations on the Support Ukraine! page above.
They are in Ukraine all the time and should have the contacts needed, and maybe we/you can drive down cars/material so the trip becomes free?
Here I am, sitting in the Caribbean drinking rum, but I will start practicing self-defense here too.
Having your own hunting weapon is not a bad idea either, and it’s just a three-day course away.
When the day comes, we will discover that the shelves in the stores are empty.
It was different right after the Cold War
https://data.riksdagen.se/dokument/GI02F%C3%B6304#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20military%20intelligence%20and,most%20are%20found%20in%20workplaces.
Many Ukrainians had bought personal weapons in the years before the war and had weapons and ammunition ready the day it started.
I work seven days a week and currently do not have the possibility to bring in extra staff. Trying to contribute to maintaining self-sufficiency in food and reducing agriculture’s dependence on artificial fertilizers.
I also have on the list to build myself a fireplace, as Putin seems more than a little interested in the energy weapon.
🦅💫
I’m going to buy myself a Gripen G with a Rolls Royce engine.
A well-balanced purchase FIM 👍
Can you arrange a group discount if the rest of us join?
💥🔥 More BAVOVNA in Saky, Armyansk, Krasnoperekopsk!
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lnj3aneimk2c
Wonderful!👍
Results are just as I suspected:
The first satellite images of the burned-out 51st GRAU arsenal in the Vladimir region near Kirzhach have appeared.
Judging by them, almost all ammunition storage facilities have been destroyed or damaged.
#russianLosses
#UkraineNews
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lnj35joz5c2z
💥👍
“Trump launches a new harsh attack against Zelensky: ‘He is losing the whole country’
US President Donald Trump is upset that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not want to acknowledge Crimea as Russian. ‘This is very damaging to the peace negotiations with Russia,’ Trump writes on Truth Social.”
Source: US nervousness may be due to concessions already made to Putin
First, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio dropped out of the peace talks in London, then Vice President JD Vance issued an ultimatum, and now Donald Trump has had a new Truth Social outburst against Volodymyr Zelensky. A source close to the negotiations tells Reuters that the nervousness from the US may indicate that Ukraine’s position does not align with what envoy Steve Witkoff has already agreed upon with Vladimir Putin.”
https://omni.se/a/63Allz
“Russia has now released a list of demands that would bring an “immediate end to the conflict” and are much more far-reaching than the seven points in the American peace plan for Ukraine. The demands are announced by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and reported by the state news agency RIA. Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw completely from the four Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Russia does not demand Volodymyr Zelensky’s resignation, but it demands that all his decisions and documents he signs can be challenged because he is an “illegitimate leader”.”
Of course, more unrealistic wishes than I had on my list as a 5-year-old for Santa Claus.
At the same time, it’s good that evil shows its true face, I don’t want peace until every Russian is expelled.
🔫 Snipers of the “Gray Area Group” unit neutralized two Russian soldiers at night from distances of 1,882 and 1,537 meters in Kharkiv Oblast.
👍
“Phones are heard ringing under the rubble”: Two children missing after Russia attacks Kyiv, kills 10, injures dozens Russia targeted the Ukrainian capital with explosive drones, ballistic and cruise missiles last night.”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3lnk7ac3nau2c
“Nio döda och tiotals skadade i ‘massiv’ rysk missilattack mot Kyiv
Flera distrikt över hela staden målades i en av de mest förödande flyganfallen mot Ukraina på månader”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/24/kyiv-ukraine-killed-dozens-injured-massive-russian-missile-attack
Unfortunately, a lot was achieved.
Now the threat of a third world war is looming.
“🤡 Shoigu said that “EU peacekeepers in Ukraine could trigger World War III”. 😵💫 He calls Ukraine “our historical territory.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lnk5wxokmc2b
I don’t know what prices are like now, but it should be enough for a few days!
“Denmark is sending 317 million DKK (≈€42.5M) worth of artillery shells to Ukraine as part of its 25th aid package. The supply will go through Estonia. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen: “We must continue to support Ukraine so it can resist Russian aggression.””
Good that Zelenskyy stands his ground, but he has not realized that Trump unfortunately does not care about previous agreements or statements (he loudly complained, for example, about the trade agreement with Canada that he himself helped arrange during his previous term as president.)
“Zelenskyy posted a 2018 Crimea Declaration from Mike Pompeo, secretary of state during Donald Trump’s first term, which said: “The United States rejects Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea and pledges to maintain this policy until Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/24/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-reposts-us-missive-from-first-trump-term-that-crimea-is-ukrainian“
“Enligt ryska övervakningskanaler rapporteras explosioner/anfall vid den militära flygbasen Kirovske, ockuperade Krim.”
Wonderful to hear!👍👍👍
“Sweden has signed an agreement with the mayor of Gammalsvenskby with a promise to rebuild the village that has been severely affected by Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
https://omni.se/a/LMOmOx