Below I look at Russian war preparations and speculate a bit, but I also want to explain why what we may be facing in Ukraine is catastrophic for us in Europe, but not necessarily for Ukraine.
A few links – in 2025, Russia surprisingly trained many reservists and had a larger conscription than usual.
https://www.dw.com/en/could-russias-military-exercises-mean-a-new-mobilization/a-71460443
99.9% make the mistake of immediately defending Ukraine as soon as I describe the reality, when the threat is not actually directed towards Ukraine – it’s just the fact that they are conducting an excellent delaying action and exchanging every meter for Russian flat-footed barbarians, all credit to them.
The threat is also not directed towards China and the USA, as both have other plans, which they are entitled to, the air is open. There is no law that they must be on our side, especially when WE ARE AT WAR?
It’s a bit strange if Europe is supposed to be able to say, “we feel threatened, come and save us, Trump, and you China, the other threat besides Russia, stop it, because we actually want peace and quiet without having to spend money on defense.”
When did that ever work in real life, if ever?
I am addressing Europe, and I do it for the simple reason that it is Europe that will soon bear all the consequences if we do not put on our big-boy-pants. We have just been snubbed by China, and Trump saw the opportunity to give us a lousy trade deal, that swindler ๐ก
Since we all know a bit of history, we know that when the consequences come, it will be you and me who are the ultimate recipients – and that is compelling.
Because laws of war are compelling, not like during COVID in Sweden where people were advised, but now you receive a call-up order and someone owns your life – they can be responsible and do an excellent job, or they can gamble with your life without caring, and it’s a bit of a lottery.
If you have an excellent leader and are well-equipped, you win the lottery, but you could just as easily have a municipal middle manager and a Mauser if you’re unlucky. And then you find yourself in the way of the Russian mechanized infantry after a few salvos of warming TOS-1 when your middle manager’s boss yells from his bunker three miles further back, “to the last bullet or face a court-martial, cowards.”
Never forget that your boss will choose which platoon is the rear guard or leads the attack, and a municipal middle manager will always favor his buddies, never expose himself to danger, and if he feels threatened because you are too good a soldier, you will go first because he can’t fire you.
I have some positive glimpses I hope for, but the uncomfortable truth is that they all involve Ukraine, and even in 2025, Europe and the USA are intervening a lot in this, as Sirsky has told us –
-Ukraine regains Crimea.
-Ukraine sends about ten brigades to the Baltics.
-Ukraine activates Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
-Ukraine destabilizes Russia, causing internal strife.
Now in 2025, we have returned to a world order where the biggest guns prevail, and the EU is hopelessly behind because we are still engaged in some other world order that no one cares about, as China and the USA have just shown us how much they respect it.
I don’t know if what Sweden launched, “the humanitarian superpower,” is a line we actively pursue anymore, but it also doesn’t work against countries like Russia and China, I can tell you. That approach doesn’t even work on our own gang criminals.
If you can’t back up warnings or threats with significant force, opponents fall asleep.
Or it’s not like that at all, the countries ahead of you in line are destroyed and ethnically cleansed without you being able to do a damn thing, and it’s getting closer to you.
So the desire for eternal peace and not to escalate for the greater good is really just cowardice that ends the lives of children, the elderly, and women in the worst possible way.
If, in the name of the environment, you have shut down electricity production and closed mines so that you can’t build weapons now, and before that, scrapped all weapons in the name of peace, then you are not without guilt when neighbors’ children are tortured and murdered – you are not a good and decent person, you are an idiot who went against better knowledge that previous generations learned the hard way, and now someone else suffers for it.
Moreover, if you have made promises that if they choose us and our community, we will help them if needed, and then don’t follow through – then you are definitely not a friend to rely on.
Zalizhny has recently said a lot, and two things we take with us – “do not agree to a negotiated peace” and “the single most important thing you have is marksmanship.”
It feels good when Ukraine’s former Chief of Defense agrees with me (of course, he got the talking points from me) ๐
Russia and Trump have REALLY tried to erode trust in the leaders of Ukraine, and when that didn’t work, they are now trying to assassinate the best leaders – several assassination plots.
The problem they have is that the Ukrainian spirit does not depend on Zelensky to function, but everything has its limits, time is a crucial factor, and Ukraine is not a homogeneous country.
I think Ukraine is cool – they have chosen a side, which is the EU, they are clear in their resistance to China, and they are pulling the heaviest load all the time without complaining – they are real men, women, LGBTQ+1, and all other gender identities we respect ๐
The problem is that Trump and Putin have agreed that Putin should take the land he deems necessary to survive politically by force – then there will be a ceasefire.
Politically, this makes Trump look good, and Putin gets his break, and he managed to escape the gasoline bath and noose already hanging in a gas station in northern Moscow by an older traitor who hangs out on another blog because he is a turncoat.
In January, when we started lamenting Europe’s disastrous cowardice, the counter-comment was always, “Europe is planning something big with Ukraine, wait and see.”
Well, we’ve waited and seen – how much longer do I have to wait ๐ง
If Ukraine is planning an offensive, it must come before Putin and Trump declare a ceasefire and peace in our time, right?
Because how can Ukraine politically “restart” the war when everyone else has caught the scent of eternal peace?
Starmer, Macron, and Merz will be as happy as children on Christmas morning, there’s no way in hell they will thunder about war and more death after that.
Right now, I think Russia is doing well enough in Ukraine that they don’t need the Baltics, but I am grossly mistaken because Russia intends to reclaim Soviet borders, and Ukraine is just a stepping stone.
Because they are clowns and complete imbeciles, this sub-goal took over three years instead of the week they had planned for – all units had their dress uniforms with them and by the end of February 2022, all tables in Kiev were booked by Russian officers.
In 2026, the Baltic border is likely no longer passable, so they have this year and a bit into 2026.
Ukraine has played fair with Europe throughout an entire war, while the amount of betrayals from the West is very high, very high – I can probably come up with about fifteen off the top of my head.
If Russia gets its ceasefire, they can release units from Ukraine, their offensive units, and leave poorer units in defense.
If Europe is threatened – will Ukraine as a country be able to restart hostilities just to help us?
Trump and Putin will try to bring down the sensible politicians in Ukraine as soon as the ceasefire is in place to prevent this. Just the fact that there is a ceasefire will be spun by the GRU and FSB as betrayal by Zelensky, and he is just one big demonstration away from falling politically.
Probably Ukraine will see an opportunity to do so to reclaim its land and bring down Russia, but we have no guarantees, we just hope that they won’t do as we have done for three years and behave like adults instead ๐
Do you understand now why this is an impending catastrophe for us in Europe?
If at most two months, Ukraine as a buffer zone between us and Russia will be gone, and then we have to hope that Ukraine, after three years of war, is ready to start dying again to save us so we don’t have to dirty our hands or die even though we have exploited their sacrifices for three long years.
The other thing that the GRU and FSB are planning is that the moment the ceasefire is declared, they will offer all unemployed and poor soldiers a new career in Europe at 50 times the salary, and a new underworld will emerge very quickly that Europe cannot handle at all.
All of this fits perfectly into Zapad25, and if RU currently has a strategic offensive reserve of 150,000 and an offensive reserve on the northern front of +50,000 that they can soon release when the NK 11th AC arrives, then they probably have another 300,000 – 400,000 that they can release from Ukraine as soon as the ceasefire is declared?
There is probably a plan to bring in units from Laos, India, Africa, China, and North Korea to handle guard duty at the frontlines, with RU special forces units behind them motivating those who try to choose life.
Russia also has 350,000 – +400,000 in various letter agency units that are well-equipped and well-trained by Russian standards.
They are reserved for internal power struggles and domestic repression, but they are there and ready.
The idea that “Spetznaz no longer exists” is nonsense because the Special Operations Forces (yes, that’s what they’re called ๐คฃ) exist, as do all the letter agencies mentioned above.
Russia still has a good capability for asymmetric warfare, and in Kaliningrad, this capability exists, and then there is the Belarusian Spetznaz, even though we have laughed at them.
There are at least 1,500 NK special forces units in Ukraine, probably more, and then Chinese Special Forces.
Today in 2025, Russia has the capability they would need to roll over the Baltics in a surprise attack – they wouldn’t be able to handle 30 European brigades in defense.
The claim that Russia has no units is utter nonsense, and those pushing that narrative should perhaps be looked at a little more closely ๐ง
Continuing to monitor RU movements near the Baltics and the air bases towards the Baltics have seen increased activity – Olenya, Kamyanke, and Lenoshovo.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/nato-bolsters-defenses-as-russia-eyes-eastern-flank-50526314.html
In terms of completing the troop types, the Baltic Fleet, which has not been tested in combat, is probably the one that will take the longest. Russia has now conducted its third major naval exercise within a year, and during Zapad 25, it’s probably time again, I guess, or does anyone still believe in the promises that it will be under 13,000 and in eastern Belarus?
After that, in order, comes the air force, the missile troops, and the nuclear troops, where the air force is probably the easiest to spot when it is deployed on the tarmac.
So, the above link now warns of increased activity at the air bases that could be used against the Baltics.
The missile and nuclear troops are supposed to be in their starting positions and will probably come later, I guess – the missile troops already have work experience, and the nuclear troops have been trained throughout the war. Before you start arguing with me – the nuclear troops will never be used.
Finally, the ground forces will move to their starting point for the attack, or UFA as we said when we attacked the whole world in basic training and won every time.
Since the command structure is now in place with the new military districts and units have combat experience, they can probably advance them a week before the offensive starts, where brigades are assigned to new staffs and move from UFA towards the attack targets quite quickly. After all, they have been doing this for three years now and must have learned something, I think?
When the ground forces start moving within striking distance of the Baltics, that’s when it gets serious, and we have a best estimated week to act.
The Baltic Fleet will already be there blocking the ports, and if we try to move anything through the Suwalki Corridor, it will be mined and drones, but as hidden as possible – a few explosions and everything will stop, and it will be chaotic. Diplomatic and political clenched fists and accusations of Russian involvement will be met with silence and disinformation, and then a few days later, they will cross the border anyway, and everything will be a done deal.
When the ground forces move to their UFA, everything else will already be in place: the air force, the robots, the drone units, the Baltic Fleet, and with the ground troops will come the artillery.
Palkino, Ostrov, and Velikje Luki have seen renovation and upgrading of storage spaces, so it’s not at all unlikely that they have ammunition and vehicles there over time?
You can google where Palkino is located ๐
What I want to get at is that it is in RU’s interest to possibly carry out a surprise attack, which no one believes they are capable of.
It is also a terrible road network in eastern Baltics and on the Russian side, so an attack can only come when the ground is solid, so mid-September during Zapad is the last chance before Raspusitza.
The railway network to Pskov has also been upgraded to quickly bring in units to the area.
As I said, Zapad 25 legitimizes troop movements, and we must try to interpret what is real and what is a decoy.
The fact that the Baltics have asked Europe and NATO for permission to conduct pre-emptive strikes in Russia went unnoticed, but now I can’t find the link.
I think we can guess what the cowards’ response was ๐
From what I can gather, the border is not very fortified with fortifications since they recently left the Ottawa Convention and are only now allowed to mine and still argue about the thickness of bunker walls. Since each Baltic state has about 6,000 strong defense forces, there is also no personnel on site.
One relies on mobilization and Russia will carry out sabotage and influence operations to delay it as much as possible.
Then a maritime threat and a threat in, for example, northern Estonia will be projected to tie up forces when the main attack comes in SE Estonia.
For example, the Estonian Defense Forces will be forced to protect high-value targets and be present in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the country.
An idea that has gained strength is that RU will start with a limited attack to evaluate Europe’s reaction, but the forces for the next phase are already on their way in.
This way, a greater element of surprise can be achieved initially without losing momentum.
If there is not much of a response from Europe and NATO, they will continue to escalate, and if we show our claws, they will back off immediately, blame a few generals, and attribute everything to drunken freebooters, just like with U137 where drunkenness was blamed for everything.
You can forget about the Baltic defense moving eastward, as RU can also deploy a wet drone carpet 50km within the frontlines as they advance.
Then there are reconnaissance drones observing where the defense sets up camp, and that’s when the FAB comes into play.
You all talk about air defense, but it doesn’t come within 100km of the frontlines nowadays in Ukraine, and even our cutting-edge aircraft can be shot down. You can be sure that China has something hidden among the forces and will try to target the F35, which would be a major propaganda victory.
In this attack, the goal is probably to keep as much of the defense at a distance initially so that they are forced onto the roads and have to bind themselves towards the combat area.
It’s not very difficult to understand why Putin wants the Baltics – it is strategically important to him, and the Baltic Sea will be essentially locked when Russian missiles, sea robots, aircraft, and naval forces suddenly line the entire Baltic coast, not just confined to Kaliningrad or the bottleneck from St. Petersburg that the Finns had exposed them to.
The range of weapons is infinitely better today than during the Cold War.
If there is a tough encounter in the fall of 2025, there might be another chance in the winter of 2026, but they surely remember February 2022 vividly and it is highly weather-dependent.
By the spring of 2026, fortifications and minefields should have started to be put in place, from what I have managed to gather, and the Russians also know how difficult it is to breach deep minefields and bunker systems.
Regardless of whether a Russian attack on the Baltics occurs or not, Europe must prepare for it, and the only way to do so is to deploy a large number of forces in the Baltics.
Now, that is not going to happen, and even if there are brave attempts to dress up the pig, it only projects weakness and indecisiveness towards Russia and China, which increases the risk of an attack on the Baltics.
If you remember the Russian Easter when we hastily stationed troops permanently on Gotland, the “threshold effect” was important, right?
The same applies to the Baltics, and Trump has already declared that Article 5 is subjective, that 30% of forces in Europe should be reduced, and that Putin is his bestie.
Then, when Russia has reoccupied the Baltics, Phase 3 will commence, and it is Poland that is now surrounded by enemies except for Germany, as the Czech Republic got a pro-Russian government (speculative until the election).
It’s not very difficult to see the overall plan here, and the Balkans will likely collapse like a house of cards without too many bribes and murders.
Greece will have a tough time along with Italy, and it will be interesting to see which way Spain goes because they have a significant influence on Portugal. Historically, Spain has rarely been on the right side.
Do you think East Germany will declare itself an independent country soon, and we’ll be back to square one ๐๐
Anyway, we are just one attack away from this unfolding in the Baltics, so let’s hope Europe projects a high enough threshold effect to appear deterrent to Russia ๐
By the way, has anyone seen this threshold effect the month before Zapad 25 kicks off, or could it come at short notice? Asking for a friend who is starting to get a little nervous?
Or do we trust that Putin will keep his promises and in case of anything, we blame him for lying?
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Steve Witkoff is going to Ryzland soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump soon backs down from his 10-day ultimatum.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
RU is behind schedule but they probably need a ceasefire of maximum 1.5 months.
might be possible to stretch a little bit maybe
Trump has probably sent him to discuss the price for an extension, soon the whole Dum(m)an Victory perfume smells.
Glory to Ukraine!
High artillery again ๐
Boring but useful reading today. Really hope that you (Johan no.1) are wrong, unfortunately it sounds quite reasonable.
However, I believe you are wrong about the amount of resources that ryz would have available in case of a peace agreement with Ukr. They will be needed at the border unless Ukr is very satisfied with the peace agreement. Since progress towards an army that has indeed been training rigorously since 2014 is moving at a snail’s pace, an attack by NATO would fare even worse. This is even if we are peace-loving.
Surely we in the West are not still clinging to the wars of the 80s when we have seen the results in recent years?
You probably wrote it yourself unfortunately.
Do we have 500 heavy drones per day?
Robitar?
4000 FPV drones per day?
Can our brigades 2025 years of warfare
The answer is no to all of that – our self-image is extremely skewed.
Attack, Russian. Reported by ๐บ๐ฆthe general staff in the morning report.
Lyman is the sector that stands out. Other sectors are stable. as yesterday or decreasing. Especially decreasing in the north.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 16๐ฅโ๏ธ
S Slobozhansky 7
Kupyansk 3
Lyman 30๐ฅ๐ฅโ๏ธ
Siverskyi 7โ๏ธ
Kramatorsk 6
Toretsk 9๐ฅโ๏ธ
Pokrovsk 47๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅโ๏ธ
Novopavlivka 23๐ฅ
Huliaypillia 0
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 1
Impacts:
Lyman 30๐ฅ๐ฅโ๏ธ
In the Lyman direction, the ๐ท๐บAFRF attacked thirty times, trying to break through ๐บ๐ฆAFUs defences near the settlements of Karpivka, Ridkodub, Mirne and in the direction of the settlements of Shandryholove, Yampil, and Hryhorivka.
Pokrovsk 47๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅโ๏ธ
๐บ๐ฆAFU stopped 47 assaults by the ๐ท๐บAFRF in the a. of settl. of
Poltavka, Mayak, Razine, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Muravka, Novoukrainka, in dir. of settl. of Volodymyrivka, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Novopidhorne.
Novopavlivka 23๐ฅ
In the Novopavlivka direction, the ๐ท๐บAFRF carried out twenty-three attacks in the areas of the settlements of: Zaporizhzhia, Yalta, Zirka, Piddubne, Tolstoy, Mirne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Novopil, and in the direction of the settlement of Temyrivka.
๐
Thank you 205
“If, in the name of the environment, you have shut down power production and closed mines so that you can no longer build weapons, and before that scrapped all weapons in the name of peace, then you are not without guilt when neighbors’ children are tortured and murdered – you are not a good and decent person, you are an id1ot who went against better knowledge that generations before you learned the hard way and now someone else has to suffer for it.”
Well done! Well written. ๐
Wise words
Finally, the ground units shall move to their starting point/position for the attack or UFA as we said when we attacked the whole world during military service and won every time.
The whole world? It was mostly Japanese when we were shooting at figures on cardboard during exercises.
We used to hang wriggling Japanese on the moving targets to get as realistic practice as possible ๐
Baltic States: Imagine if.
Could Russia have an interest in projecting a threat against the Baltic States?
We saw that NATO was not a threat to Russia when Finland and shortly Sweden joined as a consequence of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022, just because they felt threatened by Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. So, is it that NATO is not a threat to Russia, but a threat to the Russian Empire, which, according to the Russian self-image, includes Ukraine?
In what way a threat? Since Russia can conduct subversive activities in countries that are NATO members, it’s about something else. Obviously, the missed opportunities to send in troops or little green men to support a Russian-funded coup in the country in question. If Ukraine had been in NATO, Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk would never have fallen out of Ukrainian control. Or?
Doesn’t the Russian Empire include the Baltic States, Poland, and other former Eastern European members of the Warsaw Pact, now members of NATO? Which other countries besides Ukraine does Russia define as “theirs,” according to its own self-image?
So, to the question. Could the projected threat against the Baltic States have to do with scaring the West into not letting Ukraine into NATO?
There is some speculation and one is that Russia is using Zapad 25 as a pretext to bring troops into Belarus, which then attacks down into Ukraine.
Russia can also attack from Transnistria and they have managed to have TRAINING CAMPS in the Balkans to incite terrorists against the elections in the Balkans, so they can also strengthen in Transnistria.
Yes – it could absolutely be an attempt to keep the West completely away.
However, I would not risk it without preparing for them to attack the Baltics.
Regarding peace negotiations, which are in a precarious situation, a demand from the Ukrainian side has been security guarantees. NATO would be the worst security guarantee from the Kremlin’s perspective. NATO is precisely what Ukraine has requested as the highest priority security guarantee.
Moreover, one goal of projecting an attack on the Baltics could be to dampen the hope of joining NATO and perhaps, most importantly, to show Ukraine that it won’t help anyway. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the desired end result is for Ukraine to drop NATO as a hard requirement in peace negotiations. And for Ukraine to seek a different kind of security guarantee. One that Russia can easily bypass and manipulate later on.
This is a classic form of strategic disinformation or psychological influence (reflexive control), where one tries to get the counterpart to make decisions that benefit oneself by projecting a false or exaggerated view of reality.
๐ฅ “Birds of Magyar” destroyed 3 Russian “turtle-tanks”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lvd7kj33js25
“โ๏ธ31 people were killed by the ๐ท๐บRussian army in ๐บ๐ฆKyiv last night, including five children, the youngest child was 2 years old โ Zelensky announced the completion of search and rescue operations.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvd7gs62s22u
During Biden’s time, it was 50. Then I wonder, are the funds going to Ukraine, or are they for the defense to be able to produce what Ukraine/Europe will then pay for?
“US Senate Committee supports $1 bln for Ukraine in defense budget bill โ media #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lvd7es56kc2x
“Russian nuclear submarine base damaged by Kamchatka tsunami
Satellite images show pier affected by huge wave generated by earthquake, although fleet unlikely to have been harmed”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/01/russian-nuclear-submarine-base-earthquake-satellite/
This time too, the No.1 introductory text appeared in a noticeably dark yellow color. To me, completely ignorant, it still seems mysterious that Russia would have the capacity to attack the Baltic states while failing to crush Ukraine. Or are they satisfied with taking one football field at a time right now.
Braaa Johan! ๐ช
If I translate into my own words?
๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine is not a burden for the EU, it is our opportunity!
Democracies (politicians) are afraid of conflict. They do not want to “escalate”. But Russia’s war has already escalated. Ukraine has already been attacked. And they fully understand that if they do not win, then they will be destroyed.
That is why the EU should not just stand by, but support Ukraine more and even to the maximum. Financially. Militarily. Strategically. They are not just fighting for their own freedom, but for ours.
The fact that some EU countries, like Spain, signal disinterest in helping and not even strengthening their own defense should worry us. It does not mean they feel secure. It means they believe someone else will handle the conflict for them. Ukraine faces it every day. And pays the price in blood.
Therefore, we should not see Ukraine as a problem, but as an existing strength. They have the experience. They have the motivation. And they have a clear direction: towards freedom, cooperation, and European integration.
It is time to stop hesitating. We must act and go all in with Ukraine!!!!!
Summed up in two paragraphs ๐ถ
Exactly so, but unfortunately that’s not what’s happening and why I’m perceived as dark ๐
That is precisely the problem, the EU, with its many different wills, hesitates to go all-in.
It may be a difficult decision, but if we don’t do it now, while Russia is relatively weak, we will be forced to do it later, but against a stronger Russia, and on our own soil.
If we go all-in, that is, if we help Ukraine with boots on the ground, for example, to guard the border, we become a warring party, and then we cannot retreat, but must see it through, that is, not back down an inch until Russia is back on its side of the border.
Then it’s not a matter of peacekeeping troops but violence must be met with even more violence, a language that Russia understands.
This cannot be done under the EU flag, but should be another coalition of the willing.
The populations of the countries in Europe must then accept that the security we have had will be put on hold for a while, as Russia will strike civilian targets throughout Europe. We can also be sure that if NATO countries are attacked, Trump will not help, on the contrary, his henchmen will try to politically divide the EU as much as possible in the meantime.
Someone wise should listen and have the courage to act!
“โ๏ธThe ๐ต๐ฑPolish arms group PGZ is considering producing barrels for self-propelled howitzers of 155-mm Krab artillery mounts in ๐บ๐ฆUkraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvdd2ikvlc2u
Stop considering! Do it!
Is Witkoff today’s USA’s James Baker?
Do they feel lonely there at the front in Ukraine, or is it because rape is used as punishment by officers and blocking troops?
Both alternatives could be correct.
“โก๏ธ HIV rates among Russian soldiers have risen by 2,000% since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“There is no objective reason why HIV should decline worldwide – except in Russia,” the Carnegie Politika report states.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lvdmqlbeb22e
That’s quite interesting for them because the Ukrainians won’t get it anyway ๐ง
The sad thing is that deprived Ukrainians risk getting it from the Russians…
It is understood – probably guaranteed after being raped daily for two years.
I read an article the other day. I think it was you, MXT, who linked it. There was no mention of rapes. However, it talked about primitive conditions, unclean medical equipment, and more. Especially at the front lines. Non-functioning care, for example, medicines that suppress the virus. Elton John apparently has a foundation that has been banned. Smart! (As far as I remember.)
Well, Russia preferably doesn’t want to acknowledge that it exists. Therefore, they also don’t receive much support. It has been quiet for a couple of years now, but organizations trying to help the affected have previously tried to draw attention to the problems and the lack of care.
I believe that some of the contributions we previously actually donated to Russia, among other things, went to help those affected by HIV and for information.
So, it was a big problem even before the war.
4000% according to SVT/REUTERS
“If the EU and Russia united, they would be a power stronger than China, โ Lukashenko”
We tried ๐คฃ๐คฃ
Just, we invited.
This is so unspeakably tragic. No one benefits from this, least of all Ivan and Olga.
Actually, they all had the potential, we had become a globally influential team, with Russia’s natural resources and Europe’s expertise, the Russians had prospered and China had gotten “a piece of the pie,” to use a local expression. But unfortunately, Putin and the oligarchs pulled the rug out from under that dream, and the people, who had never gone through either the Enlightenment or the French Revolution, kept quiet and handed over power to a new emperor. Tragic.
Purely conspiratorially, one could think that the USA had sabotaged this collaboration before it became too fruitful…
Va?
Trumps threat against India seems to have little effect.
“At least four tankers loaded with Russian oil are stuck off Indiaโs west coast after local refineries refused to take the cargo, following renewed pressure from the US and EU. India has asked refiners to seek alternative suppliers. Bloomberg reports.”
The problem here is that Trump is now doing China’s bidding, even if the intention could be noble, which I don’t think it is
Putin is trying to delay again.
Let’s see if Trump falls for it or if he follows through on his threats.
When it comes to everyone but Russia, he first hits hard to scare them, and then he backs off a bit so the opponent feels they got off cheaply.
It could have looked completely different if he had done that to Putin directly at the beginning of the year. Tough sanctions + weapons galore to Ukraine, and to top it off, sent more soldiers to the EU just to show the seriousness.
Now he locked himself in by shouting for years that Ukraine should not receive any support at all and that the USA should stay out. It wouldn’t have worked to come out strong without losing all credibility. The question is whether he actually dares to do anything now when parts of MAGA are already upset with him over the Epstein files.
Afraid it will only be sanctions and tariffs (if anything).
Secondary tariffs will of course accelerate Russia’s economic decline, but it probably won’t lead to a quick end to the war.
“The Russian goals in Ukraine have not changed, Vladimir Putin stated in a statement, according to Reuters. Despite this, the Russian president states that he believes peace talks with Ukraine should continue. According to Putin, the next step should be to appoint working groups that can try to reach compromises.”
[Link to the source article](https://omni.se/a/4BP4lo)
Trump will make serious of his threats when Putin is ready – “if Putin doesn’t stop he will get sanctions in two days” – and Putin stops at the new defense line.
Now Putin is behind schedule but a ceasefire will probably come before mid-September, maybe +1 week because it has to.
My guess then raspusitza is sometime in October.
Putin “we agree to a ceasefire”.
Trump “now everyone must follow it and I expect Zelensky not to destroy this”.
Voila.
Yes, that’s the risk. That was probably what Trump wanted to achieve already early this spring, but he gave Putin more time to conquer what he wants.
Then there’s the question of how it rhymes with an aggressive ZAPAD 2025.
If he triggers a war against NATO, he risks that we, once we have gained momentum and the gauntlet has been thrown, take the opportunity to truly help Ukraine.
What happens depends entirely on how bad the situation really is with Russia’s economy (and the people’s attitude) and whether China is on board for a more active role or at least offered to support even more by sending heavy weapons and soldiers to Ukraine. As well as a promise that they won’t care about any potential secondary sanctions from the USA.
If Russia has real backing from China, they can ignore Trump and continue anyway.
Then ZAPAD 2025 could also become a reality to test NATO and to shift the focus away from Ukraine.
But most likely is still a forced unjust peace where everyone throws Ukraine under the bus. Really hope that the EU has the strength to resist and keep their promises. The USA is out of the game now so economically it’s the EU that has to carry the whole load.
The risk, of course, is that Trump threatens us with 50% tariffs and demands the Nobel Prize to get what he wants…
Biden was far from perfect, but damn much better than Trump.
Stable ~50-60 billion USD in support every year would have been better even if Ukraine had been limited to strike no deeper than 100km.
It’s still Ukraine’s own drones that are used when they go deep and they have their own ballistic missiles in progress.
Now Trump is also ruining the economy, so the space for support is shrinking just because of that.
The EU will probably do as Trump wants and breathe a deep sigh of relief that there will be peace, while at the same time blaming Trump. “We had no choice”.
Let’s hope we’re wrong and that Trump actually chooses to do the right thing.
Trump does what is best economically for him. In the beginning, he was completely in Putin’s leash, but now that he has noticed that the Russian is just lying, something we have known for 300 years, he begins to pull in another direction, like profiting from gas, oil, and weapons to Europe.
As the US withdraws its soldiers from Europe, European countries will place orders for equipment from the US, because we have not scaled up our own production enough. Then, when Russia tests NATO, we will be forced to order even more, because we will not see any American boots on the ground.
No, we have to solve this ourselves. Unfortunately, we have become accustomed to relying on the USA and are poorly prepared.
USA
Lower figures for July and the figures for May and June, which looked good, have been revised downwards.
Unemployment at 4.2% as expected (it has been around that level since Biden’s time).
“Unexpectedly weak job market in the USA: 73,000 new jobs in July.
73,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in the USA in July, according to official statistics. This is significantly lower than analysts’ expectations, which ranged between 100,000 and 115,000 new jobs.
At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises down the figures for May and June to 19,000 and 14,000 new jobs, respectively.”
https://omni.se/a/jQqyy9
Do we measure in the same way as the USA?
We have 10% ๐ถ
It is essentially the same way to measure, there are international guidelines that both Sweden and the USA follow.
It doesn’t really matter what the unemployment rate is if we are going to assess how Trump has performed since becoming president, or how the overall development looks for the USA, right?
The numbers varied between 4.1-4.2 last year and have remained there this year as well, except for January when they were at 4.0.
So, there has not changed significantly in either direction.
One difference is that the USA excludes agriculture. Another is that they have many people in the country illegally and therefore are not included in the statistics.
There is no difference compared to Sweden, here too there are many who stay without permission and who are not included in the statistics.
Well, percentage-wise I am convinced that there are significantly more in the USA. Especially within agriculture where it is an important source of cheap labor.
But there are probably large dark figures both there and here, for natural reasons.
To Peter the Great,
Will explain –
1. Russia intends to restore the borders of the Soviet Union so Ukraine is just a partial goal.
2. the door to take the Baltics will probably close by 2026.
3. Zelensky says that Russia has 150,000 in reserve and we KNOW that they have +50,000 in mobile offensive capability on the northern front and that the North Koreans are supposed to relieve them – these are not guesses.
4. Russia still has significant Special Operations Forces capability.
5. Russia has found something that works now against Ukraine which is retreating, and Ukraine is by far Europe’s strongest defense force with excellent soldiers who can handle the war of 2025.
6. Europe has threatened and backed down from our threats throughout an entire war – the likelihood that we will not come to the aid of the Baltics exists and that is what Putin will play on. He will try to enter just below the threshold of provoking a reaction from Europe.
7. The Baltics have no significant defense forces, the eastern border is not fortified, they have no combat experience, and reinforcements will not be able to arrive.
8. In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine and took a significant amount of territory but then the Ukrainian spirit kicked in, are the Balts made of the same stuff or not?
9. Pride comes before a fall – to believe in Putin in 2025, assuming that he dares not attack Europe and that not arming ourselves is, in my opinion, suicidal, but that’s what our politicians do, just like you think.
10. We are already in a twilight state in Europe in terms of sabotage – it is war preparation. Russia is investing enormous resources in this, so why would they suddenly stop?
11. What will Europe do when – the Baltic Fleet is along the coast of Poland with open missile hatches, the missile troops from Luga are deployed, and the nuclear forces as well?
When we are supposed to fly F35 to intimidate, the enemy has acquired manpads and shoots them down at takeoff.
We have no air defense, no missiles, no thousands of long-range drones, no defense against Russian equivalents, no 4000 FPV drones to shoot down per day, and so on.
It’s not like Europe’s combined defense will engage the Russians in the Baltics – no one will do that.
Our Swedish defense forces are 25,000 and we need them to protect ourselves if Russia attacks the Baltics.
Poland will be focused on Belarus, Finland on the forces along their border.
France might send something, but I have the impression that they need to vote on such matters in the parliaments if it’s beyond what has already been approved – like a battalion or brigade in case of war.
Germany will probably send something as well.
Can we indirectly target Russian objectives and thus reach them, no, I think instead it would be Russia indirectly targeting objectives in Europe.
Europe is completely clueless now in 2025, 2026 and beyond maybe things will change but it’s the present that is interesting and especially how Putin interprets the signs.
That’s why it’s SO DAMN IMPORTANT that we send everything we have to the Baltics but of course, we don’t do that ๐
The problem with everyone thinking like you, which is pretty much everyone, is that if Putin attacks the Baltics then we stand there and say “But Putin promised, he lied” as some kind of indulgence that absolves us of guilt.
We do have a long tradition of this – ask Poland what they thought WW2 was for them as a country or the Balts who fled to Sweden.
I don’t really believe that anything will happen at ZAPAD, BUT I completely agree that we should prepare for it.
I also agree with you that it doesn’t seem to be happening at the level that would be needed. A Polish division and a Lithuanian brigade won’t go far.
NATO should have organized a similar exercise to have troops in place.
But they dare not, “it would be provoking Russia”, those who only intend to conduct a peaceful exercise. ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
I agree with you we must be prepared. What must and will happen is that the Baltic Sea will become an inland sea for the Moscow state. The navy will become submarines. The Russians are unpredictable but I hope they understand the consequences.
Sven Otto Littorin shares his thoughts on FB
I have been contemplating yesterday’s announcement from the government quite a bit. It was undoubtedly quite unexpected and has evidently stirred strong reactions.
No matter how you twist and turn in the Middle East, I believe one must start from the premise that old truths no longer apply. Except one: that Kremlinology is a useful skill when it comes to evaluating what is happening. There is so much going on that we don’t have a clue about.
Let’s assume the situation is as follows:
1. There is a strong covert cooperation between Jerusalem and Riyadh. This cooperation has been ongoing for years beneath the surface, driven by a common desire to normalize relations and by the fact that they have strong common enemies: Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran…
2. The Gaza war never escalated into a regional war against Israel, as Hamas had planned from the beginning. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia has been clear: they want to sign the Abraham Accords, but a prerequisite is a two-state solution.
3. Israel cannot accept a two-state solution unless the Arab countries that have signed the Abraham Accords take responsibility for the reconstruction in Gaza, but above all for security there and the disarmament of Hamas.
4. The reason the war has lasted so long is that the Arab countries have silently accepted that Israel does everything it can to drive out Hamas; this means less work for them afterwards.
5. Hamas is extremely skilled at manipulating public opinion in the West through classic influence operations combined with useful idiots in the West.
6. Finally, the point is approaching when the next step in the plan must be executed. The Saudis manage to get the Arab League to unite around a plan that also includes demanding the disarmament of Hamas. This is a very strong signal to Israel that they are delivering on their part of the agreement. The Saudis continue to say that they want to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
7. The major resistance to the plan now lies in the Knesset and is among Netanyahu’s coalition partners. How on earth can they be persuaded to agree to a two-state solution?
In this scenario, it may of course be the case that France, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Sweden for that matter, due to domestic opinion, must increase pressure on Israel, seemingly to act against the terrible conditions on the ground in Gaza. But it COULD also be for other reasons – ranging from it being the price the West has to pay for the Arab League standing united against Hamas, to Netanyahu needing pressure to persuade his coalition partners to change their stance.
If that’s the case, it obviously cannot be communicated externally. All these countries have domestic opinion to deal with at the same time as this maneuver needs to be resolved. But it is definitely being communicated between the governments of those countries that want to support the plan. One such country is Sweden, and it is possible that our government has simply “taken a bullet” for the process. We will never know, and it may sound too clever to be likely, but it would explain a lot.
Regardless, it is wise not to use too strong words when it comes to the Middle East. I believe there is so much more going on behind the scenes right now than we will ever understand. But I am still hopeful. It is not the USA or the EU or the UN driving this process now. It is Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the support of most countries in the region. Talk about a gamechanger.
He argues that the Arab world allows it to continue in order to facilitate for themselves if they are then forced to go in and take over Palestine.
At the same time as they demand a two-state solution (to avoid refugees themselves where, among others, HAMAS may be involved.
On the other hand, Israel does not want to accept a two-state solution.
Neither party seems to really care about ordinary Palestinians.
I guess they would prefer to see a “final solution” to the problem. It’s easiest that way.
If we dismiss those who care as useful idiots, and preferably do not want us externally to put any pressure on Israel but let them be, there is a great risk that this is where we will end up.
But they can’t be that terrible and cynical, you might think?
Look at what Putin is doing in Ukraine and how he is even sacrificing his own population.
How do they expect Israel to approve a two-state solution without external pressure if the Arab world prefers to wait as long as possible?
Reconstruction and security is something Trump has said he can take on. Therefore, Israel does not need the Arab world to clean up Gaza if they manage to squeeze all Palestinians into their own little “city” where they can be held (or gotten rid of).
That being said, I hope he is right and that the Arab world truly wants to take over the responsibility for Palestine in a humane way, but if so, it is time for them to act and increase the pressure on Israel.
One must be able to see things from two perspectives and not just focus on Hamas propaganda that overshadows the media.
Finally, there is a chance for a lasting peace.
It is probably weakly positive if it is true that Saudi Arabia and especially the Arab League have started working towards a two-state solution. Iran has really emptied the magazine in its own foot in recent years with their sponsorship of all kinds of evil terrorist groups.
The question then is, what should such a state look like. Just the fact that the country is divided into two separate areas makes it difficult, and the tradition of clan feuds does not make it any easier.
In Israel, is Hamas on board?
When does Fredagsfyllan start?
The text remains the same after translation:
It now starts with a tip to all of you who prep in storage rooms and attics, for God’s sake don’t forget:
“Fight Fight Fight is a bold fragrance from Trump Fragrances, designed for men who embody strength and resilience.” ๐
๐
You smell like a winner ๐๐
Oops, American nuclear submarines to Russia
https://omni.se/a/zAqokv
Now it’s starting to look like something. Is Trump taking ZAPAD seriously?
Could it be that the USA has finally understood?
Has Melania promised a surprise to Donald if he pushes back Putin to the hole he came from?
Expose the bluff! Stand firm! The Russian pack’s Soviet nuclear weapons are just scrap!
My first thought was that he was going to sell them, but then when I read the article, I became happier. ๐
The word feud between Trump and Medvedev could actually turn the US ship in the right direction again. Trump is a person who must have the last word, and takes insults personally.
Waiting for equally tough comments from Trump as when it concerned Iran.
Friday Buzz
The feed was completely flooded with American Eagle Sweeney ads that I couldn’t even be bothered to watch, but I’ve been told what it is, there’s an editorial in Aftonbladet about it now.
Suddenly, Johny Lawrence shows up with his “Badass.”
He explains to me that “Larusso is a total pussy that wears sweatpants”
And that he only dresses in “American eagle because they pay me a lot of money to say this”
Totally crazy ๐ถ
So now I’ve been sitting for half an hour checking out American Eagle, which I didn’t even know existed two weeks ago – awesome clothes and Eagle Fang forever โ
I’m not exactly sure how this works, but his real name is not Johny Lawrence so he’s in the Cobra Kai role when he does the jeans ad and follows his character.
Damn smart anyway, it’s not very often you google an American jeans seller directly…
The highlight of Cobra Kai, which became more diluted over time, was the constant fight between Johny and Larusso, where Johny was the engine.
Cobra Kai was a hit and now they’ve managed to transfer it to a clothing seller – nicely done.
Others I liked were WWE – Netflix, I’ve never really watched it in my whole life but now I’m glued to the screen and know everyone’s names. It’s supposed to be authentic behind the scenes but everything is as scripted as WWE matches.
Sometimes it’s just good marketing.
I’m thinking about who we should team up with to take over the world like American Eagle, Gรถring took poison so if you have any suggestions for someone else who could work?
Anyway, here are the dog movies you’ve all been waiting for ๐คฃ๐คฃ
And this is what elephants look like when they’re in a Friday buzz
It’s going to be low-flying for me, still have a sprained foot but I’ve made it to work all week – making sure everyone sees me limping around and making it sound like I’m in excruciating pain.
Ending with a hysterical Friday pig video ๐๐
[Link to dog video]
[Link to elephant video]
Got to Love Dale ๐
๐
How dependent are the Russians on being able to conduct shipping through the รresund strait? In the event of a Russian intervention in the Baltic states, it should be a clear answer to close the strait for all traffic to and from Russian ports. Provided that Europe dares.
Definitely!
A slightly cynical thought: One can only hope that Sweden doesn’t act like during the Second World War!
It is given
I was a bit late because I have been in a meeting.
Have you thought about the fact that for this to be able to go in a positive direction again, everyone who doesn’t like Trump needs to make a U-turn and instead praise him for what he has done in the Ukraine war.
If there is a change, it will come from him, Europe is incapable.
Have you bought your jeans yet from American Eagle?
If you combine them with Victory perfume, you are the winners of the future.
I probably don’t have the right genes, I’m neither blond nor blue-eyed, do I even have permission to wear their jeans as a degenerate subhuman?
You mean in the same way as trying to befriend Putin, inviting him into the warmth and letting him mingle with Europe’s and the world’s leaders as if he were democratically minded and only wanted to engage in mutual trade that would benefit all parties?
Where one has turned a blind eye, even though one should have understood long ago that he does not want to benefit anyone other than himself, and only now realized that one has been naive?
Now just what I wrote – for this to go well for Ukraine, Trump needs to do the right thing.
It was not possible for Europe to take over.
Zelenskyy has done everything he can for Trump, praising him (and Europe) in almost every post on Twitter.
I don’t believe in this yet because I haven’t found any reliable sources, but a rumor is spreading that China has started its operation to attack Taiwan and has begun moving troops.
The UK recently announced that they would defend Taiwan in case of an attack (with what?).
We’re not buying into this rumor yet, but IF it’s true, it’s quite interesting with the upcoming Zapad 25?
I’ve previously checked the weather and it will be good again in September.
The HMS Prince of Wales, docked in Darwin for the Talisman Sabre war games, is part of a nine-month Pacific deployment, showcasing the UK’s commitment to countering rising threats in the Indo-Pacific.
https://www.swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-brief%252Fuk-signals-willingness-to-fight-over-taiwan-strengthens-military-ties-with-australia-amid-rising-china-tensions
Do you understand where it is heading now?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4021330-ukraine-is-ready-for-swift-action-for-peace-and-urges-leaders-meeting-zelensky.html
I interpret it as Zelenskyy wanting to make it clear that it is not Ukraine’s fault if there is no peace, probably because he is confident that it will not happen this time either.
He wants to make sure that Putin is the one to blame when it fails.
I guess that’s not your interpretation?
China is said to have a strong drone weapon and robots now, right?
Dogs who want to be liked. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjZG-5zzFyQ&list=WL&index=1
๐๐
๐๐๐
“Peter Navarro: A lot of people are talking about Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. I’m thinking since he’s basically taught the world trade economics, he might be up for the Nobel on economics.”
https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1950892865984336090?t=UpwUEtjXETvfRJYoEUmXGg&s=19
Time for a “Nuclear Dick-Measuring Contest”?
“President Trump on the nuclear submarines to be deployed:
“A threat was made by a former president of Russia and we’re going to protect our people.”
“He [Medvedev] was talking about nuclear. When you talk about nuclear, we have to be prepared. And we’re totally prepared.”
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1951398230236782992?t=vlEfXFKTx-aIw4UEmn6JpQ&s=19
The HMS Prince of Wales, docked in Darwin for the Talisman Sabre war games, is part of a nine-month Pacific deployment, showcasing the UK’s commitment to countering rising threats in the Indo-Pacific.
https://www.swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-brief%252Fuk-signals-willingness-to-fight-over-taiwan-strengthens-military-ties-with-australia-amid-rising-china-tensions