Two bad news, and one good –
RU has fired 670 loitering munitions at the Dnieper front in one day, fire-and-forget drones. This is a bit newer than FPV on a wire and something China has probably helped with.
That’s how I interpret loitering munitions, otherwise it usually says FPV or (kamikaze) drones.
The second is that north of Pokrovsk, Russia stepped right over Ukraine’s new very strong defense line as it had no personnel in the trenches and was just an empty trench.
Ukraine is also releasing the cream forests, but that probably doesn’t matter much anymore.
The positive news is that Ukraine is engaging in delaying tactics and has withdrawn units – the offensive reserve I’m talking about definitely exists.
David D has found new markings which mean offensive, but Trump is like a wet blanket over everything.
Here you have indirect fire shot by RU in one day, taken from johanno1.se comments section;
111 KAB, 6 009 shells (105 from MLRS), 4 615 kamikaze drones.
Do you think we in Europe could fire 670 fire-and-forget drones in one day, I don’t even think we have that many deployed, or 4600 kamikaze drones every day?
However, we can go a long way with a soldier in a trench behind mines with a rifle and extra magazines – that’s not something you easily overcome assuming they are in the right place and not lying on their backs – reaching the trench is the difficult part in the war of 2025, so 90% is about being ahead in planning and not being reactive.
When you have a drone weapon, you can do like Ukraine, keep the personnel down and instead increase the drone umbrella, but in the absence of that, shooting is the primary option, which we in Europe will have to rely on for quite some time.
Europe should be extremely cautious about who we listen to now and just do the right thing. The right thing is to deploy troops in the Baltics because we have promised them in writing and verbally that we will, as for now, shooting is our salvation so they must be in the trenches along the border for a while before Zapad 25 kicks off.
The right thing is also not to accept anything with Ukraine, although there may be ceasefires that we practically cannot prevent, Europe should then reinforce Ukraine to such an extent that Moscow will be in trouble in less than three years – so we must have a higher production rate than China if we can manage it when we don’t have the necessary raw materials 😀
Words are nothing, actions are everything – now in 2025, it’s as simple as if you can’t back up your promises and threats with a proportional amount of weapons and violence, no one will take you seriously. It hasn’t progressed excessively fast so everyone who wanted to adjust has been able to.
If nothing else, China has managed to rebuild a Russian arms industry that was in ruins in just two years, is China better than us – is our self-image skewed?
The right thing is also not to bow down to Trump – the USA has never done what is best for Europe in modern times, and the last time we listened to the USA we ended up in a cold war and the USA threw Poland under the bus. Western leaders scolded Poland’s exiled government when they opposed the annexation – how could they want to oppose peace in our time, to go under Soviet rule for everyone’s sake.
The right thing is also to arm ourselves and realize that we are now at war – prepare the citizens for it, “kill the reds”, “a dead Russian is a good Russian”, “now you will pay for Svensksund you Russian bastards” and all that which we apparently have forgotten since the 90s. Inhumane and Russophobia you say, but the parents who were forced to watch their five-year-old children being raped, tortured, and ultimately murdered in front of them by laughing Kadyrovites still think we are overly naive.
Also, let’s not repeat 1939-1940, we swept through the whole of Europe in a few months back then where the Baltics, Poland, and the Jews had to foot the bill. Life under occupation was not exactly great unless you were one of the above or later had your country negotiated away under Soviet protection.
In my job, I have a rule, when different factions start to fight and I stand in the middle and become a punching bag – always do the right thing, do what the contract and the numbers say, nothing else. You will always make one of the parties angry, but if you have done the right thing, you have not done wrong, and that is the least bad option of the choices you have in front of you.
That’s how Europe should think now too – unfortunately, Europe’s proposal after the meeting with Zelensky is to have a ceasefire to begin with, they present it as a demand.
This is exactly what Putin wants a month before Zapad 25 😭
Trump under Putin’s GRU/FSB unit leadership is a bit like a severely overweight sheepdog right now herding the bleating and loosely running lambs Merz, Macron, and Starmer into the trap without the little creatures on shaky newborn legs really understanding what’s happening. They listen to the tone and see the direction, then they run in that direction.
It’s a bit tear-inducing, especially since Europe’s experts and military personnel engage in wishful thinking, or maybe they are bought off by the Russians – the latter would be both smart and very Russian.
Carsten Bauer said in June that Russia could attack in four years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
In 2024, he said 5-8 years, so fairly consistent even though it has narrowed down to a specific year now instead of a longer interval. If we want to be picky, he shaved off three years in one year even though Russia couldn’t make up for three years in one year, so he has significantly adjusted his analysis because he was wrong.
The whole world is echoing 4 years right now 😐
In 2016, the USA conducted a war game and concluded that the Baltics would be overrun in 60 hours, and that was before the Balts gave all their equipment to Ukraine, Russia had three years of work experience and the new black, drone weapon.
“In 2016, NATO’s worst nightmare was not a hypothetical – it was a war game with a clock ticking down to defeat. Russian forces, simulated across multiple RAND Corporation scenarios, needed just 60 hours to reach the gates of Tallinn and Riga, effectively decapitating NATO’s Eastern Flank before breakfast on day three”.
Since we will have a ceasefire in Ukraine within a month – have Carsten Bauer and all other idiots taken that into account in their expert models of the Russian threat?
What capabilities will Russia have in about four (4) years?
If they detach everything from Ukraine, do they already have this capability today?
We happen to know that they have produced 300 T90M tanks per year for two years that have not appeared at the frontlines, and their new Ptgb has been seen in combat. Is 600 T90M tanks a worrying number today or not if they come thundering over the border into the Baltics with all the tanks side by side?
Everyone has known exactly what Trump is up to because he has said so since the fall of 2024, Trump says what he thinks when he thinks it so he is extremely predictable as long as you take him seriously. He is as far from a babbling idiot as you can get, but it suits him perfectly to be able to blame wrong outcomes on misunderstandings and “we have been naive” (sound familiar).
I believe that the European self-image will soon take a serious hit because all analysts and military personnel with a bit of self-respect will start screaming about an imminent threat of war before the month is over, not just me. Because what else should one do as an expert when experienced drone-heavy VDV brigades start arriving from Ukraine to Belarus and Pskov?
Then they will very quickly start lining up Russian capabilities such as drone weapons, robots, and other fun stuff, comparing them to what we have without Ukraine (which has now signed an agreement with Trump not to wage war), and then their analyses turn pitch black negative and they start buying plane tickets.
Unfortunately, the Baltic states are not much stronger today as mentioned because they have given much of their equipment to Ukraine – this I missed in my previous analysis even though we knew about it. Sloppy of me and I gave myself a big pay cut 😐
With China’s active help, Russia has managed to get its entire arms industry up and running – they have now started production facilities for all heavy traditional weapons + drone weapons and are producing a very large amount of new equipment quickly and far beyond what we do in Europe.
In Ukraine, it is evident on the battlefield that Russia (again) has this advantage and new capabilities, Europe cannot keep pace with Russian equipment, which is actually Chinese but has “Made in Russia” on it.
I am completely convinced that there is also direct production for the Russian military inside China because they cannot risk it being knocked out by UA, then it is sent across the border and becomes Russian.
Ukraine is fighting against Russia, China, North Korea, an African personnel pool, and Iran.
On their side, they have a USA that is stingy with equipment and a Europe that still believes it is peace after three years – and above all, we have been stopping them every time things go too well, but NO ONE stops Russia, no one.
What you are witnessing now with Ukraine where Merz and Macron rolled over, expect the same with the Baltics if it comes to that – because if they are willing to sacrifice Ukraine, why would they then be willing to go to war with Russia over the Baltics?
What we should be hearing now is “ceasefire forget it, tomorrow ten mechanized brigades roll into western Ukraine and a no-fly zone over western Ukraine is established tonight, let Ukraine regain its land – remember Svensksund you Russian bastards”.
Instead, what you hear is “we need an immediate ceasefire”, are we showing STRENGTH or WEAKNESS right now 😶
When that logic hits you like a bolt, it’s not so fun anymore, is it – you’re only a humanitarian superpower until it’s no longer possible and you have to start sacrificing your friends to whom you’ve made promises.
Poland has apparently earned its place in the EU now because they will be defended with European weapons and personnel, that is clear.
It is equally clear to me that we will not come to the aid of the Baltics, but apparently we are not talking about that yet – fine, European brigades can still rush in there, but I am not hopeful.
We have just witnessed our Chamberlain moment and it was terrible to see, but it is also just the beginning of our era’s global conflict where the Baltics are likely next in line.
Having followed this war every day for over three years, I don’t find this very amusing, now I have to follow it for another 4-5 years until the global conflict subsides when the world’s big elephants get tired of boxing.
Those of you who have not yet subscribed to a paid subscription on Substack with Johan No.1 should consider doing so to receive the same high-quality wild guesses and misses for another five years 😀
For those who subscribe and have done so loyally over time, often with encouraging comments – very grateful for that. Of course, I hope to be able to delve deeper into what is happening and spend more time on the texts, but unfortunately there is a normal life that goes on in parallel with an employer who has the audacity to want to see me every now and then.
It has been a long time since I saw such a great injustice as what Ukraine has been subjected to, and what the Baltics are now at risk of. The Balts are almost worse off because we have clearly stated that we will help them in the event of a conflict.
We have drawn up advanced battle plans that all require the units to enter the Baltic states, but no one will send anything to the Baltics until the Russians cross the border – and then the curtain is drawn.
For three whole years, I have been accused of overdramatizing, but I obviously am not – but yes, I understand that it is easier to laugh at me than to have one’s self-image run through a wringer.
The last time the European self-image was slightly bruised was in 1940 when 2 million soldiers and an endless amount of equipment were wasted in a few warm summer months because they had not prepared for the next generation of war – hubris always comes before a fall, and right now it seems to be a mix of hubris and resignation being thrown into the blender.
As recently as January, many said that Europe had a plan with Ukraine, and now European leaders are talking about a ceasefire.
“but Ukraine wants it” – yes, because they have been stopped, had their equipment withdrawn, prevented, and in other ways hindered in an entire war. Today in 2025, we are at that point, but it is not a natural law. It required almost as much manipulation as when the Green Party made nuclear power unprofitable so that “the market shut it down on its own,” after rearranging the board and firing the CEO.
And very few now believe that Russia will jump on the Baltics, and when they do, they will play the surprised card and act as if they knew it all along.
Carsten Bauer will change his tune to a war threat in September 2025 very soon without so much as a blink, the third prediction in a year – difficult to work against that timeline.
As I said – there may be war in September, next year, or in four years as Carsten believes, but it doesn’t matter. You never gamble with something as serious as this.
The fact that mechanized brigades are not rolling into the Baltics as we speak is at least professional negligence.
What I do believe, however, is that European leaders are very sensitive to still losing our own sons and daughters and that they will hesitate for as long as possible to expose them to danger. Putin knows this, and that is why they are going so hard in Ukraine with excessive violence to intimidate, they made their “Nagasaki warning” one tortured child at a time.
Then you must not forget what I am trying to emphasize – Europe’s leaders are terrified that Putin will turn the gun on them personally. He has a long list of influence operations and subversive activities that will bring you down, you will lose your job, you will be dragged through the mud and divorced.
Apparently, a Chinese company bought Grindr in 2020-2021 and after our friend, the national coordinator who resigned before taking office in overly tolerant Sweden, you can guess why maybe even if that was probably just a disgruntled colleague. But it clearly shows that it can crash the job interview.
The question is, who owns the other dating sites that are a bit more daring, and how many of our trusted ones are not like my hard-working neighbors, just decent family men.
According to another debater in our neighborhood, there are Russian connections to Epstein, verified ones.
Three gang members knock on your door on a Friday night and ask if you are having a nice time at home and how lovely your children are – also, do not forget about the vote on Monday.
Threatening the system is just the beginning when it comes to the gangs and criminal clans because Russia doesn’t even need to send in their own spies into the country anymore for their dirty work.
Even though the EU issued half a million EU visas in 2024, they still managed to get them in with us anyway.
The strawberry paid 1000 SEK to 13-year-olds to commit murder, and a total of 30 such cases were sent to Denmark, which was more than understandably upset about our exodus of child soldiers across the border.
If the strawberry (if he wasn’t arrested) could pay a 13-year-old to murder a minister?
The dark secret that no one talks about is that they are terrified as individuals of Putin, all our key competencies and politicians have family, private life, internet history, poor judgment, young children, older children, parents, and so on, all wide open to influence.
And on top of that – “yes, I think we’ll take the offer that I get to give a lecture once a month in an empty meeting room for 1 million SEK in the account within a week, after all, it’s money and we are actually good parents if we think about their safety first, right?”
Europe has gotten itself into an unlikely mess, but it’s cooked with the same ingredients as WW2.
The Baltics are in a bad position.
Finland, Poland, and Gotland are next, but then it will be a real fight so they need a few years to prepare and then roll out their subversive activities in all their glory.
In the meantime, Spain is becoming pro-Russian because they have rarely been on the right side of history and then the Czech Republic will also fall.
Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Albania are all in a bad position as well.
Greece has some resilience but they have everyone against them down there.
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An increased pace of attacks in the last 24 hours with the strongest increase in Kursk/Sumy, otherwise the increases fairly evenly spread across the front sections. As usual, the highest in Pokrovsk.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 13💥↗️
S Slobozhansky 6
Kupyansk 9💥
Lyman 20💥
Siverskyi 8↗️
Kramatorsk 5
Toretsk 8
Pokrovsk 48💥💥💥↗️
Novopavlivka 24💥💥↘️
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 7
Thank you for that 👍
What we should hear now is “ceasefire forget it, tomorrow ten mechanized brigades will roll into western Ukraine and a no-fly zone over western Ukraine will be imposed tonight, let Ukraine reclaim its land
And at that moment, Europe has taken its, my and your security seriously. Including the Baltic states, because now there will be a hurry to regroup the troops involved in Zapad25 into a meat grinder with renewed force and unparalleled in this war in Ukraine.
The safest card. The only sensible one really. Everything else is Russian roulette.
Yes, that’s exactly how it is – neither more nor less difficult.
But for our leaders, it’s too difficult 😐
A bit funny translation “Ukraine is also releasing the cream forests, but that probably doesn’t matter much anymore.” Kreminna – how can one turn that into cream? And the forests have been far from a cakewalk for the troops.
🤣🤣🤣
Even Tataragami has encircled the Russian offensive
NO around Pokrovsk.
A total of 168 combat clashes were recorded over the past day.
Yesterday, the enemy carried out 74 air strikes on the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas, dropping 138 guided bombs. In addition, it carried out 5,299 shellings, 105 of which were from multiple launch rocket systems, and used 4,980 kamikaze drones.
Steady at 4500FPV per day
In total, the losses of the Russian invaders over the past day amounted to 980 people. Ukrainian soldiers also destroyed five tanks, five armoured combat vehicles, 26 artillery systems, two multiple launch rocket systems, one air defence system, 107 tactical-level unmanned aerial vehicles, 106 vehicles and one piece of special equipment belonging to the occupiers.
Losses down and moving forward more – don’t like that combo
More about the Russian offensive NO on Pokrovsk, Kyiv Independent.
Russian forces pierce Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast, bypassing fortifications, monitoring group says.Russian forces advanced toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in Donetsk Oblast, seizing positions in nearby settlements to support further offensive operations.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-advance-toward-dobropillia-in-donetsk-oblast-bypassing-fortifications-monitoring-group-says/
Combat reconnaissance is already in Dobropillia but as I said now Azov arrived
Elite Azov Corps deployed to Pokrovsk sector amid Russian advances
The news comes as Russian forces made a push toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in Donetsk Oblast, reportedly piercing Ukrainian defenses and seizing positions in nearby settlements to support further offensive operations.
https://kyivindependent.com/1-killed-2-injured-as-drones-strike-aerospace-plant-in-russias-nizhny-novgorod-oblast
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955172944667160978?s=46
See you later
Trump realizes that he has been deceived by Putin and his own envoy. The global press is in complete agreement. He has two concerns. How to save face. And how to handle the Alaska meeting.
Europe is now uniting to form a common voice and they do not tolerate agreements made over their and Ukraine’s heads.
Putin realizes that he may not have exclusive access to Trump in Alaska and cancels the meeting due to “the unclear security situation.”
What happens next?
I think Trump is doing exactly what he intends.
It’s going a bit too well now for Putin at the frontlines – risk that he might go for a kill instead.
No, the EU says ceasefire now. We are showing ourselves weak.
How does Russia usually handle weakness?
”pushes together the bleating and loosely running lambs Merz, Macron, and Starmer into the pen”
🤣🤣🤣
The thing is that there was a period after the ambush in the Oval Room when one started to believe in the coalition of the willing, Merz throws the gloves, now Skyshield is coming in western Ukraine before there has even been a ceasefire, and so on. But no, now we instead have to consider an abbreviation equivalent to TACO for that troika. COTWACO? On that note, how did the French training on site in Ukraine itself go? It would have been a small step in the right direction, but it turned into a MACO, didn’t it?
Yes, I also had hope for Merz but he was a coward 😳
The Foreign Legion was ready for combat just before the election in France, then as usual when Macron is involved, a letdown. He probably had his hands full with his wife.
🧵https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1955190911614246968?s=46
1/5 THREAD: russia’s breach near Dobropillia — real, risky, and timed for pressure
It’s not a collapse, but it’s not nothing. It’s important to neither under- nor overestimate it.
Here’s why it matters, what it reveals, and what Ukraine must do next 👇
2/5 russia is attacking in multiple directions, willing to take risks and losses to gain leverage before talks.
Ukraine faces command issues, low infantry, poor coordination, limited resources — and a habit of delaying bad news.
That’s how breaches happen
3/5 This breach is still small compared to past actual breakthroughs. But in today’s war, it’s big enough to matter.
Ukraine has sent units, including from the 1st Azov Corps, to contain it.
It’s not too late — but it must be stopped before it grows
Map: Deep State
4/5 Zoom out, and this breach is tiny on the map. It won’t decide the war or the negotiations.
It could have been avoided. Now the key is preventing it from becoming something bigger
5/5 Ukraine needs more than quick fixes.
The corps reform will help — but more mobilization and better coordination are essential.
Europe must also go beyond statements and commit long-term aid. Because without it, Ukraine risks being pressured into a deal dictated by Trump
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955147713583919229?s=46
1/
Thread✍️
The enemy needs another 10,000 soldiers near #Pokrovskoe:
– Stupak assessed the danger of surrounding the city
war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorogu-pid… (https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorogu-pid-pokrovskom-treba-sche-10-tisyach-soldat-stupak-otsiniv-nebezpeku-otochennya-mista.htm)
(https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorogu-pid-pokrovskom-treba-sche-10-tisyach-soldat-stupak-otsiniv-nebezpeku-otochennya-mista.htm)
Enemy troops near #Pokrovsk need another 10,000 soldiers: Stupak assessed the danger of surrounding the city
The Russian army may be shifting forces here from Sumy and Chasovye Yar
https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorogu-pid-pokrovskom-treba-sche-10-tisyach-soldat-stupak-otsiniv-nebezpeku-otochennya-mista.htm2/
“Recently, quite strange actions of the enemy have been observed at the front.”
A significant decrease in the activity of enemy DRGs has been recorded in the #Sumy region, where the enemy has focused solely on terror tactics using drones, destroying everything that can hit from the sky.
At the same time, in the #Chasovye Yar area, the enemy has practically stopped attacks on Ukrainian positions. Why is this happening?
It is possible that the enemy is transferring forces to the direction that is most priority for him – Pokrovsky .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/u… (https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/ukraina/pokrovsk/)
Currently, the grouping of Russian occupation troops in this area is about 110 thousand. If it is strengthened by another 10-20 thousand, the enemy can accelerate the pace of the offensive.
2/
“Recently, quite strange actions of the enemy have been observed at the front.”
A significant decrease in the activity of enemy DRGs has been recorded in the #Sumy region, where the enemy has focused solely on terror tactics using drones, destroying everything that can hit from the sky.
At the same time, in the #Chasovye Yar area, the enemy has practically stopped attacks on Ukrainian positions. Why is this happening?
It is possible that the enemy is transferring forces to the direction that is most priority for him – Pokrovsky .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/u… (https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/ukraina/pokrovsk/)
Currently, the grouping of Russian occupation troops in this area is about 110 thousand. If it is strengthened by another 10-20 thousand, the enemy can accelerate the pace of the offensive.
3/
Enemy DRGs have been recorded in the city of #Pokrovsk.
Their task is to disorganize the city’s defense and distract the Defense Forces.
Russian troops are seeking to encircle the cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd and force Ukrainian units to abandon their positions or surrender.
If the so-called neck of the possible cauldron is narrowed to less than 10 kilometers, there will be a critical need to withdraw troops and evacuate equipment in order to avoid a repeat of the #Vugledar scenario, where the Defense Forces suffered significant losses during the withdrawal.
4/
As for the scenario of an exchange of territories between Ukraine and the aggressor country Russia, it is absolutely out of the question, since the Constitution of Ukraine does not provide for this, and such actions constitute treason.
If this happens, it will mean “instant criminal liability” for the country’s leader and a social explosion that will surpass both Maidans in scale.
5/
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with
OBOZ.UA (http://oboz.ua/)
by former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/iva… (https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/ivan-stupak.htm)
6/
– Could you explain the strange situation that has developed in some areas of the front? The activity of enemy DRGs in Sumy region has significantly decreased. At the same time, the enemy carried out only one assault near Chasovy Yar .
war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorog-zara… (https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vorog-zaraz-na-pauzi-okupanti-znizili-aktivnist-pid-chasovim-yarom-vijskovij.htm)
Of course, the enemy continues to shell these settlements, like all the others along the front line.
How can you explain this? Do you suppose that this is happening for a reason on the eve of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, which is scheduled for August 15, in order to transfer additional forces to Pokrovsk and significantly change the situation?
7/
– Yes, Pokrovsk is very important for the Russians. Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, where they are trying to move en masse.
I think this is a priority and, most likely, the concentration of forces will be there. This is one reason.
Another reason is that, perhaps, there are certain inconsistencies in the positions of the Russian high command.
This will probably provoke a certain pause in the appearance of sabotage groups in the Sumy region. The enemy there is a question of survival, not of advancing forward. It is survival and holding the position. Therefore, there is no talk of DRGs there at all.
They use purely terror tactics with drones, destroying gas stations, tanks, gas drums, etc. They destroy everything they see. “Scorched earth” tactics.
8/
As for the other directions, I assume that perhaps this is a certain technical pause or a transfer of forces to the Pokrovsky direction, where the highest priority is and where they really expect results.
As for the binding to certain dates, I am more than convinced that the Russian military command does not pay attention to August 15, August 28, or September 1.
There will be a political instruction, they will do it. There is no instruction – they are carrying out a previously given command – to take the settlements of Ukraine.
9/
– According to preliminary estimates, the enemy has concentrated a group of about 110,000 near Pokrovskoye. Do you think that strengthening this group by, say, another 50,000 could significantly change the situation?
– Maybe. Of course, maybe. Not 50 thousand, but even 20 thousand could change the situation, because the pressure on the city does not stop.
There are already Russian DRGs in the city center, they appear in twos, threes. Our military reports that they are regularly detected. They start to accumulate somewhere there, set fire to houses, and that’s how they are found.
10/
– But still, it is known that urban battles are a rather complicated story. What plan could the enemy have? Just surround this area, force our Defense Forces to withdraw?
– A little more about the DRG. Their task is to disorganize the defense of Ukraine, if we are talking about the Russians. They appear in the city, somewhere they shoot at our soldiers, somewhere they knock them out, we are distracted by searching for the DRG.
And at this time they continue to press us from the flanks. In principle, this does not interfere with each other.
Of course, the Russian Federation has a task – not to get involved in urban battles, as was the case in Bakhmut, to put 20 thousand people there. Nobody wants this, nobody has the desire, because it is long and difficult.
But to take it into the ring is another matter.
And here, of course, the number one goal is to surround them and either kill everyone here or capture everyone. Both the first and second suits the Russians. In addition, capturing equipment and weapons is a huge victory.
Option number two may not be as acceptable, but it is still very attractive to the enemy – Ukraine independently leaves this location, and the Russians, as quickly as possible, like on contour maps, shade in a certain territory and say:
“That’s it, we captured it.” And after that, they receive their rewards.
I am sure that they have been given a task: whoever takes Pokrovsk first, whoever raises the flag first in the city center, can count on general shoulder straps, the title of
“Hero of Russia” and badges, medals, orders, everything as it should be.
– So, if the Defense Forces leave this territory, the enemy enters #Pokrovsk, #Myrnograd and the cities surrender without any resistance?
– If there is a command to withdraw our troops, then yes. Remember the city of Vugledar. They stood there until the last. And it was during the withdrawal that our military suffered the greatest losses.
They were leaving, and the Russians were shooting from the flanks, there was crossfire.
A lot of equipment and weapons were lost, because they were leaving at the last moment.
11/
In my opinion, if the size of the “neck” of this boiler is less than 10 kilometers, then the issue of withdrawal becomes extremely urgent, timely, and the equipment must be gradually removed so that it does not fall into the hands of the enemy.
Because why did they buy it, why did volunteers raise funds for it, why did the state pay for it, only to blow it all up at the last moment? This is irrational.
– So, to summarize, do you assume that under the conditions that the enemy strengthens his group, for example, by transferring forces from other directions of the front, he will be able to have some success in the Pokrovsky direction?
12/
– Unfortunately, yes. I’m trying very hard to be objective, but if they throw even a little more people there, even 10-15 thousand, it will be enough to intensify the attacks. And now we see that they are already bypassing #Rodynske. That is, the advance is getting bigger and bigger every day. If additional forces appear, the city of Pokrovsk will fall faster, perhaps even by the beginning of September.
– The last question is about the idea of exchanging territories. What is your opinion on this? And do you think it is possible even in theory?
13/
– In my opinion, this is impossible. The President cannot do this. First of all, there is no such norm in the Constitution, they say, take this, we are leaving here, here it is for you, and you give it to us in return. How to measure?
– By arshins? Two joint groups will go and measure these territories? This will definitely not happen. This is the first. And the second is criminal liability. Such actions are treason. Therefore, there will be no exchanges.
If we had a purely theoretical territory, for example, in the #Kursk region… Now I look at the map, we have 5 square kilometers there – it’s nothing. And in Tyotkino there are another 11. That is, a total of 16 square kilometers. If we had this territory, then theoretically yes, we could exchange it.
But, of course, the Russians would not do it. They would say, we will not exchange our territories.
14/14
But an exchange of territories that would look like this: we leave, for example, Donetsk region, and you leave Kharkiv region
– I can’t imagine that.
This is instant criminal liability and an explosion within the country, much larger in scale than the first and second Maidans combined.
Lovely updates 205 👍
Agreed.
Two hundred and fifty has excelled today 👍😀
Cleared the cache for Safari and now I can log in again on my phone ✊✊
A video from a surveillance camera, obtained by Sky News from July 16, is seen as evidence that the Syrian military has been involved in the attacks on the Druze minority.
The Syrian military was deployed to stop the fighting between Druze and Bedouins, but is accused of participating in the attacks.
The video shows a man being shot at close range by uniformed men at the hospital in Sweida, southern Syria.
Witnesses told the TV channel that the uniformed men were government soldiers who, among other things, warned the staff not to treat Druze.
Islamists are cruel and there is a risk that they will continue with attacks against the various minorities in Syria.
Least unexpected development ever.
Aside from Israel doing what they could, the popular protests are conspicuous by their absence
Now information is starting to come about what is rolling into Belarus and it is units that fought for something a year or two ago.
200th, units from 1 GTA and two divisions as well. Not all but parts.
Do you hear any warnings yet?
13,000 have already passed with plenty to spare.
Lithuania, which is the only one with a serious counter-exercise, has 350 soldiers participating.
This is because Belarusian citizens are helping to log the passage at train nodes.
No one knows what it looks like in Pskov from the osints.
If England, Germany, and France each reinforce their respective Baltic states immediately, while Sweden contributes hardware and surveillance through Gripen and Global Eye, Putin loses momentum in his expansion.
Exactly, 2-3 brigades per country that go on defense a few kilometers from the border in eastern Balticum and lay their mines.
Then Putin must make a decision whether he wants to go to war with us or not, and if his offensive reserves he has gathered are sufficient or not.
Now the countries are undefended (for the most part) and Putin must instead make a decision whether Europe/NATO will go to war with us or not.
Since we have just shown ourselves to be weak cowards with Ukraine and are now begging for a ceasefire, I would argue that the risk for Balticum is very high right now.
This is not going in the right direction and Europe is asleep.
And all analysts are like parrots repeating “4 years” as if some German had pulled it out of a hat.
And since everyone reads it in the media, people like me are considered somewhat outspoken and annoying.
The world has simply gone mad, the only ones who are not crazy are Putin, Trump, and Xi who take another step up the ladder towards global conflict every month – they are doing exactly what they intend.
“☢️ Strong fire at ZNPP – it is impossible to extinguish the fire on this territory because the entire coastline there is mined The occupation authorities do not comment on this situation, it is unknown whether there is a threat to the ZNPP itself.”
⚠️😲
Great atmosphere in here, I think we will surpass 2000 comments today 👍
Sorry, have had a lot today!
No worries, it was the 1999th other and we had fun together ✊✊
The morning post you will like, as we discuss what happens if the countries queuing after Ukraine choose to stand in solidarity with Ukraine instead of being herded towards their death.
All the countries have firsthand experience of how fun it is to be under a Russian boot and thus have something to fight for.
I saw that the US CPI was unexpectedly slightly better than expected. The tariffs have not taken effect yet.
Imagine if the US economy doesn’t crash 😶
However, it was noted that the number of layoffs had increased by 75% since last year, mostly due to Musk wreaking havoc.
https://marcusoscarsson.se/just-nu-massuppsagningar-i-usa-varsta-sedan-pandemin/
The whole circus with customs has caused companies to fill and empty their warehouses alternately.
It takes a while before the customs affect prices and the profitability of companies. Agreements need to be renegotiated and the financial reporting needs to be completed, etc.
“Ukrainian special forces report destroying a TRLK-10 Skala-M radar in Abrykosivka, occupied Crimea.
Officials say the loss will hinder Russian air operations.”
Let’s forget about the details.
How do we best kill the ryz?
How do we train as civilians? Because we don’t have time to wait for training or “someone else”!
These are my suggestions.
1) Forget about moose hunting this year!! Yes, I know, you have been looking forward to it for so long .. but, the ammo you shoot away then is more valuable in the box/magazine – when the ryz comes. Okay, go out and be there, but don’t shoot anything.
2) For those of you who hunt, buy a little more ammo than what is “needed”…
3) Not everyone has weapons so what to do?
Most people may have a computer. So, install and play First Person Shooters (FPS), where the opponent shoots back: Counter Strike, Battlefield, Call of Duty, etc.
There should be a game that Ukraine has developed which is modern warfare – realistic.
4) Train! Make sure you have stamina, get used to carrying a backpack with at least 10kg, do you have good shoes/boots to hike/walk long distances in?
5) Consider, what do you do in case of a drone attack? How do you act?
6) Plan for war. Food, water, escape routes, communication, protection.
Prepare bags in advance – BEFORE SOMETHING HAPPENS. “Later” doesn’t exist.
7) Conduct small scenario exercises – evacuation, flee quickly, etc.
***
Some thoughts. What do you think?
I completely agree – I have stocked up on rum and some cases of beer, and then I practice uplifting and motivating words that I will record and send to you so you keep your spirits up 👍
Ukraine has clearly shown what a determined and armed population can achieve, so we absolutely as citizens in Sweden should start practicing how to kill Russian bastards.
For example, everyone should definitely take the hunting exam and then the government should lift the AR-15 ban so everyone can have a proper weapon at home.
Interesting article
https://neweasterneurope.eu/2025/07/24/will-russia-attack-beyond-ukraine/
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955340924084686962?s=46
“We already have the first successes”: Syrsky
@CinC_AFU
made an important decision regarding the #Pokrovsky direction
The situation in the Pokrovska and Dobropillya areas is complex and dynamically changing, but the Defense Forces are taking all necessary measures to stop the enemy’s advance. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi decided to allocate additional forces and means to strengthen the stability of the defense in the Pokrovska direction.
https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vzhe-maemo-pershi-uspihi-sirskij-uhvaliv-vazhlive-rishennya-schodo-pokrovskogo-napryamku.htm
This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/27749
It is noted that measures are planned to identify and destroy russian sabotage groups in the Pokrovsk area.
“In particular, by the decision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, additional forces and means have been allocated to strengthen the stability of defense. Measures have been planned to block enemy groups in a designated area,” the report says.
What is the situation in the Pokrovsky direction?
As reported by the General Staff, Ukrainian defenders are waging heavy defensive battles against superior enemy forces. In the Pokrov direction, the invaders have concentrated a group of over 110,000 personnel.
Despite heavy losses, the russian invaders are trying to infiltrate our defenses with sabotage and small infantry groups.
“In particular, several small enemy groups, bypassing the positions of the Ukrainian defenders, attempted to advance towards the settlement of Zolotoy Kolodyaz.
In addition, taking advantage of the peculiarities of the local landscape, saboteurs secretly penetrated the settlements of
• Vesele,
• Vilne,
• Rubizhne, and
• Kucheriv Yar,” the General Staff reported.
It is noted that reserve units, which have already been called in to carry out Syrsky’s order, have discovered the enemy and are having their first successes: the occupiers are being destroyed and taken prisoner.
The russian occupation army continues to accumulate forces in the Pokrovsky direction to try to capture the district center and advance to other settlements in Donbas.
https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/zavdannya-drg-dezorganizovuvati-oboronu-ekspert-otsiniv-situatsiyu-v-rajoni-pokrovska-i-vkazav-na-riziki-karta.htm
On this section of the front, the enemy is trying to disorganize Ukraine’s defense with the help of sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
Looks good Azov came and killed Russian bastards
Spetznaz?
”In addition, taking advantage of the peculiarities of the local landscape, saboteurs secretly penetrated the settlements of
• Vesele,
• Vilne,
• Rubizhne, and
• Kucheriv Yar,” the General Staff reported.”
Late comment but Europe’s chance against a Russia with China support must be to bomb away all the trains, railway bridges, switches, etc.? So that the crap doesn’t reach the front. Then I wonder if building real ballistic long-range missiles is difficult for the European defense industry? Or if there just haven’t been any orders for it.
No orders have been placed – the manufacturer of Taurus is probably still crying for Germany has not placed an order and likely blocked purchases from others.
Storm Shadow is being produced again but not in tens of thousands.
French JDAMs are being produced but not in huge quantities.
Extended ammunition for HIMARS is probably being produced as well and those cheaper air-launched ones?
So far, Europe has been manufacturing extremely expensive weapon platforms and ammunition instead of the cheaper ones that work well. Easy to understand why since it’s surely wildly corrupted when we’re talking about billions of EUR.
As we are still doing like this and China instead invested in completely rebuilding the RU arms industry from scratch, RU is probably well ahead of us right now.
Then direct deliveries from China where it’s needed, for example, the AI interceptor drones.
Russian losses 2025-08-13
890 KIA
1 Tank
8 AFVs
23 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
2 Anti-Aircraft systems
99 UAVs
2 Cruise missiles
46 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lwazfuiixc2c