The Russian Ministry of Defense now announces that Zapad 25 will be held on September 12-16 with fewer than 13,000 participants. According to the teaser, it won’t be the missile troops, nuclear troops, or the Baltic Fleet – but the air force will be included.
Is it too violent an extrapolation to say that if the Baltic Fleet leaves port or the nuclear troops/missile troops start deploying, then it will lead to war?
The MoD might have forgotten about them in the rush, for example, and it wouldn’t be great if I started a war due to an admin error, I think?
Anyway, Ukraine says they do not perceive a current threat from Belarus and that the increase in capabilities is in the hundreds.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/11/7525570
Since you’ve been reading these posts diligently for over three years and never missed a day, you know that Russia has set up a strategic offensive reserve of at least two (2) divisions and a new army corps (AC).
They were built around existing experienced brigades and began to be set up for a little less than two years ago.
Where are they located?
Definitely not in Belarus because now we are starting to confirm which units will participate – 71st GMRD, 4th GTD, and 2nd GMRD where the latter is part of 1 GTA, and then in 71st is the 200th arctic brigade – an old zero-celebrity that we’ve had a good laugh at😀
They are not entire divisions, but units from these divisions have been logged by Belarusian friendlies at transport nodes.
The other thing happening now is that RU attacks near Sumy have essentially ceased. Does anyone seriously believe that Ukraine will attack into Russia now or in the future, Trump has presumably negotiated away that threat?
Additionally, North Korea’s 11th AC is on the way, not all of them but 30,000 of those little barbarians. They will take up defensive positions along the northern front, I believe.
Which means that over 50,000 of the offensive reserve that has been at the northern front will be freed up, or it’s probably already been freed up.
According to previous assessments, one does not gamble – an attack could come now, it could come at Christmas, or it could come next year.
If I were Russia, I would focus on surprise instead of openly building up a lot of capabilities, but I’ve learned that from Rise of Nations so don’t listen to me.
I would also use the advantage I have as leverage instead of waiting for Europe to build up its capabilities and get organized.
I would have also tried to conceal the buildup where I intended to strike, and in Belarus, they arrive openly, but the capability buildup towards the Baltics since last spring has been tried to be concealed as much as possible.
So, as this unfolds in Ukraine now – wouldn’t it be in Ukraine’s interest for Russia to go to war with Europe?
Ukraine has always been pragmatic and if they can involve Europe in this as a belligerent party, it would save their country, so right now I’m not listening to what they say.
There is a consensus in Europe that Russia will jump on Europe, and now the realization is dawning that we are not ready, so now we have initiated an investigation 👍
The French are lagging behind the Germans and believe it will take five (5) years before Russia attacks Europe, but that’s because they are slacking off and didn’t read the German update to four (4) years that came in June. They are truly incorrigible, but when you have a leader whose working hours are spent arguing with his wife, it’s not so surprising perhaps.
But the same here – everyone agrees that Russia will not hesitate for a second.
https://kyivindependent.com/france-warns-of-war-in-heart-of-europe-names-russia-most-direct-threat
If we summarize what Google says about how leading military officials and our major leaders have expressed themselves on the issue
– Russia is likely to continue with Europe.
– Europe has 4-5 years.
– Europe is not ready, especially in drone warfare, we are hopelessly behind.
Maybe you are smarter than me sitting in my parents’ basement, but why do we want a ceasefire in Ukraine as all of Europe’s leaders stated in a joint statement a few days ago?
If Russia continues with Europe and we are not ready, wouldn’t it be best if Russia is kept busy in Ukraine until we are ready?
The cold flash that strikes again – have Russia and China outmaneuvered us with the help of their buddy Trump, are we cowards?
If we have been outmaneuvered, the war in the Baltics is guaranteed, and if we haven’t, then we must somehow show it so that Putin doesn’t think he has the upper hand, right?
Why did we send Swedish troops to Gotland permanently after all those drone overflights for a couple of years?
For me, the easiest way forward is to send in all the brigades we have to the Baltics in the coming weeks and let them defend a few km in from the eastern border and fortify themselves – then we keep quiet, no one says anything other than that we are not a threat to Russia.
Then Putin must make a decision if he is willing to go to war with Europe or not. His staff must also assess whether they will get stuck or move forward because if a war is started with Europe and it goes even worse in Ukraine, then Russia risks turning inwards immediately, that’s my guess. We present a problem for Putin that is not particularly pleasant.
As it stands today with Lithuania’s major military exercise with 350 soldiers, the only decision Putin has to make is whether Europe will retake the Baltics after he has rolled over it or not.
https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-launches-military-drills-near-belarus-border
And since we have now pleaded on our knees for peace in Ukraine, I believe GRU and FSB analysts say in their unit meetings that the likelihood is greater that we continue to sleep rather than intervene – and Russia always pounces on such probability.
Europe is making mistake after mistake after mistake right now, and after making mistakes for three years, one starts to question if we have the capacity to do the right thing, it’s not surprising at all.
Soon some wild speculation that you will enjoy.
Europe not being terrified of what is happening in Ukraine right now is not calm and strength at all – if the Ukrainian airbag disappears, we are in trouble, and if Ukraine turns against us, it’s game over.
To go out now and say “Putin, please agree to a ceasefire” and then not deploy troops to the Baltics is a dereliction of duty because it projects weakness on a weakness, which for a Russian is almost irresistible.
Now, what I would like to believe, I have done my homework and know that this COULD work, but the big question is whether the will exists in Europe, and for three long years, I have been constantly disappointed by our reluctance to do what is right😀
Trump the bastard is out harassing Zelensky again, refuses to copy it in but it raises blood pressure 😡 Everyone with two eyes now knows that he will cheat Ukraine and excessively favor Russia, slippery Krasnov is sneaking around in the undergrowth and he is not our friend.
Europe’s leaders must also know that the USA wants to drag us back under a steel-clad cold-war boot again, they cannot have come to any other conclusion in the meetings after how the USA has behaved since 2022.
Ukraine is significantly on the defensive and China is building away Europe, and the USA is making everything harder – over time we will simply be left behind and eventually the airbag Ukraine will disappear and the bomb with a million former soldiers will be added to the EU underworld.
The only way for this to end well for Europe is if Ukraine wins. If there is a ceasefire now, we have reached the end of the beginning of our era’s global conflict – and we are not in a good position at all in the starting field.
The situation at the fronts is that RU has started to increase the pace at the southern front and the Dnieper front.
They have pooled resources at Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Siversk, and northern Luhansk where they are advancing everywhere. Northern Luhansk does not have much longer to live.
In areas where there are UA elite forces, they cut through – maybe there were no elite forces there?
Did you see a glimmer of hope in the darkness?
Russian forces are on their way to Belarus to project a threat to Poland and then to attack down towards Lviv and into the Baltics.
Divisions have the final destination at the train station in Pskov.
All of this is west of Ukraine’s westernmost border with Russia.
Trump has negotiated a ceasefire for Ukraine even though everyone knows that Russia will violate it. But everyone expects Zelensky to keep his promise because he has done so throughout the entire war.
What says that Ukraine cannot violate it 🧐
David D is not wrong that Ukraine has a large offensive reserve – they MUST have it, I have calculated in all directions and it is impossible for them not to have it period. I have consistently argued that Ukraine has offensive capability for about a year, and RU as well.
David D has also shown that new markings have been seen on vehicles and that happens if they plan something fun, if you see soldiers in tape also with new colors, it’s game on. They change to a new color so that Russian forces do not have time to find out the color and tape themselves in the same shade.
But to have any chance of winning this, it must be full asymmetric warfare which Europe and Trump have stopped so far – you know my previous discussions where Belarus is included, -stans, republics, and all that.
If Ukraine pools its capabilities on one front, then they will have a stunning advantage (again).
In the overall war, Russia currently has an advantage and is increasing it along with China.
Putin is so confident in his actions that he has ordered Operation Baltics according to my previous world-leading analyses that always turn out to be correct.
The attack will take place between September – onwards depending on when they are ready.
They release the Poles from Belarus, they close Suwalki, the Baltic Fleet is out, robot troops from Luga and nuclear troops are deployed and they are ready to press the button for extensive subversive warfare throughout Europe if needed – always more violence than the opponent because that’s what they have always done.
Finland is also unlocked at its border with Russia.
The purpose is to conquer the Baltics, prevent Europe from regaining the area through “force posture” and then with Trump’s help pacify Europe, solidify the victory, and continue to the next country.
All of this I have written is true and the plan is to bring down country after country in Europe.
The only thing that doesn’t fit into this right now is Ukraine – they want a ceasefire, they are retreating everywhere, they are giving up dominant terrain, and the counterattacks are few and very limited.
When has Ukraine ever acted like this before?
Europe’s leaders are silent, but it may also be due to fear of course since they are all cowards.
Exactly what is happening is difficult to know, but I want to believe that Ukraine has a plan (they always have a plan) – how can Azerbaijan raise the tone against Russia when Ukraine is begging for a ceasefire?
That was the first sign 🧐
The second is that the constant weather vane Lukahsenko announced that he will not run in any more elections despite having just won an election and Russia seems to be winning the war 🧐
The fact that no forces are in the Baltics may be due to a worthless Europe or that they want to dangle something in front of Putin that he will bite on – who knows.
Baltics – Article 5 – an opportunity to strike against Russia for those who feel they must follow the rules even if no one else does.
Putin does not attack, okay, re-planning works fine too, and during Zapad 25 we run a false-flag that is a casus belli for Article 5, you don’t have to be a rule-following id1ot, right 😀
If we were to pool the capabilities that may be ready to go to war, it is the countries that know they are next in line if Ukraine falls and that their situation will become ten times worse then –
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania rely on mobilization and have between 40,000 – 100,000 in their total defense.
Poland is probably Europe’s strongest defense force after Ukraine, with heavy vehicles in the thousands and several hundred thousand in reserve forces, but they have several functioning divisions. Poland has not been idle since 2022 unlike the rest of us.
Finland has the coastal rangers in Nyland’s brigade, an air force, and a navy.
Sweden has a navy and an air force where the heavy attack would cause as much damage to the Russian Baltic Fleet today as during the Cold War. Light battalions when the Baltic Fleet is sunk and our hunters.
The approach with the entire air force in a drone panorama film would probably make you have to have a beer to calm down, I guess.
Germany has a few brigades but LV and air, as well as a navy.
Yes – it’s all about the will right now and we haven’t really seen leaders with integrity so far. History tells us that country after country falls when the masses remain passive and that even a declaration of war can turn out to be just empty words.
The end of WW2 for Finland, Poland, the Baltics, Yugoslavia, and Ukraine was very different from that of Western Europe.
But the scenario below is undoubtedly the best for Europe and several countries know that if there is a ceasefire and Zelensky falls, perhaps Ukraine as a buffer will disappear or in the worst case be pitted against them.
On September 18, Russia crosses the border into the Baltics behind a cloud of drones, four divisions are in western Baltics within 60 hours with another two on the move.
The Balts have their defense in the western part of the country and European forces did not enter just as a prominent blogger predicted, “I told you so” echoes silently from the Caribbean.
On September 21, information starts coming from Belarus about shooting and popular uprising. Since the Russian divisions have entered Lithuania, there are few units left deployed on the surface in Belarus and they are apparently exposed to a cloud of attacks by Ukrainian SOF, the Belarusian army, and all Belarusian volunteers who have infiltrated.
General chaos ensues, and Lukashenko is already on a plane heading east after shouting “to the last drop of blood” from the airplane stairs while his gold was being loaded.
On the same day, reports emerge that Armenia and Azerbaijan have crossed the border into Russia along with Kazakhstan, and there are reports of riots, shooting, demonstrations, and popular uprisings all over Russia.
On September 22, Operation Crimea unfolds along the Dnieper front and the southern front in full amphibious combat, airborne landings, and drone warfare, with minor landings taking place in Crimea on the first day to close the land bridge, and the Kerch Bridge is brought down in the afternoon.
Yes, you guessed it right, Ukraine has built up a large arsenal of robots and drones of all kinds, and the strategic bombing reaches the stratosphere in intensity.
In the morning of September 23, the mechanized assault units roll into Bryansk Oblast from Chernihiv, revealing that Ukraine still has thousands of tanks, combat vehicles, armored vehicles, and artillery. The reason there were no units in Ukraine was that they were all up in Chernihiv along with most of the drone units.
The direction of the attack is northward, just west of Moscow, where defenses are established at all traffic nodes before continuing northward. At the city of Bryansk, an assault detachment breaks off straight east towards the city of Lipetsk, establishing defenses at all major traffic nodes along the way.
Putin is completely caught off guard – he was convinced that Trump had negotiated to halt further attacks into Russia, and so was Trump, his masculinity severely wounded. He mutters something about “Zelensky the bastard” and “art of the deal” as he hastily leaves the press conference.
Poland, Finland, Sweden, Germany, and the Baltic States take Article 5 very seriously, and Operation Balticum ends in a great deal of Russian casualties.
Belarus will liberate itself within a week – a ten million strong lynching mob was unstoppable.
This is how the war is won, but we have not seen this throughout an entire war, we shall see.
An attempt to invade the Baltic States would diminish Russian capabilities to the extent that Ukraine could start advancing again, and then the ball is rolling on the fronts, and voila, they regain their entire country which they are unable to reclaim today.
What I believe could support this is that the Balts, Poland, and Finland understand that they are next in line, and without Ukraine, and over time, the situation would deteriorate significantly compared to today.
In previous posts, I have hinted that Ukraine may want RU to attack the Baltics and have also confirmed that UA has an offensive reserve. Now we have added some willing European countries to this, but that is the big question mark, of course, even though the candidates to participate are not well-known for bowing down to a Russian.
We shall see, but as promised before the end of 2024 – it is in the year 2025 that this war will be decided.
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 makes you healthier too 👍
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N Slobozhansky-Kursk 17💥↗️
S Slobozhansky 3
Kupyansk 8💥
Lyman 23💥
Siverskyi 8💥
Kramatorsk 3
Toretsk 6
Pokrovsk 43💥💥↘️
Novopavlivka 28💥💥
Huliaypillia 2
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 6
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 17💥↗️
There were 17 combat engagements in the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions. The enemy carried out 17 air strikes, dropped 28 guided bombs, and fired 281 times, including eleven times from multiple launch rocket systems.
If we are challenged, the war in the Baltics is guaranteed, and if we are not, we must reasonably show it in some way so that Putin doesn’t think he has the upper hand?
Sun Tzu: When you are weak, project strength, when you are strong, project weakness.
As you write further down (just got there):
That no forces are in the Baltics may be due to a worthless Europe or to dangle something in front of Putin that he bites on – who knows.
And (now I got there) the closing scenario is not that bad.
You are writing and reading at the same time 😀
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-08-13
SLAVA UKRAINI
👍 Odd didn’t show up – not until I backed up.
165 combat clashes
89 aviation strikes
183 KAB
5,120 shells (64 from MLRS)
4,166 kamikaze drones
In total, the losses of the Russian invaders over the past day amounted to 890 people. Ukrainian soldiers also destroyed one tank, eight armoured combat vehicles, 23 artillery systems, a multiple launch rocket system, two air defence systems, 99 tactical-level unmanned aerial vehicles, two missiles, 46 units of the occupiers’ motor vehicles, and one operational-tactical missile complex.
In total, 165 combat clashes were recorded yesterday.
The enemy launched two missile strikes with six missiles and 89 air strikes on the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas, dropping 183 guided bombs. In addition, it carried out 5,120 shellings, 64 of which were from multiple launch rocket systems, and used 4,166 kamikaze drones to strike targets.
I feel that I would like to do more for Ukraine and our own security. Sure, I have donated and helped in organizations for Ukraine, but can I be of greater help? In my work, I have contacts with major real estate companies and municipalities, which gave me an idea. We need to grow our defense industry with both new and established companies. So, I have contacted both municipalities and real estate companies, resulting in the following: Three municipalities are open to this type of establishment and have land ready with valid detailed plans. If there is a specific municipality where the defense industry wants to establish itself, I can most likely arrange it. The real estate companies I have spoken to are willing to invest in land and construction. I also believe that it is possible to negotiate for them to invest not only in the physical building but also in equipment in the building, even in a complete production facility. The companies I have been in contact with have the financial strength to carry out very large projects. My problem is that I do not have contacts within the defense industry. I have been in touch with the FMV and the Government Offices, but unfortunately without concrete results. Does anyone here have any tips?
Maybe some of our larger defense companies have tips? They often act as acquirers / partners (e.g. joint venture) and in that role have been approached with proposals. Foreign companies may also be interested in establishing themselves in Sweden.
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955497096447943043?s=46
Mike @WarintheFuture:
The thin salient that the Russian forces have created in eastern Ukraine over the past few days stands like a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukraine’s line of fortress cities.
Small groups of Russian group troops have apparently penetrated a section of the Ukrainian defensive line.
In my latest assessment of the war in #Ukraine, I seek to answer the following questions:
1. Can Russia turn this tactical penetration into an operational breakthrough?
2. Will Putin leverage this penetration to influence US decision-making in Alaska and afterwards?
3. What hard choices will Ukraine need to make to contain this penetration?
The situation remains complex and dynamic. The enemy is attempting to advance in this direction at the cost of significant losses in manpower and equipment.
Units within the corps have planned and carried out actions to block enemy forces in the area.
First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, 12 August 2025
3/
The thin salient that the Russian forces have created in the Ukrainian defensive regime in eastern Ukraine over the past few days stands like a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukraine’s line of fortress cities.
Small groups of Russian group troops have apparently penetrated a section of the Ukrainian defensive line that was fortified, but those fortifications were not manned at the time according to some reports.
kyivpost.com/post/57990
4/
“Reports of manpower shortages in Ukraine’s armed forces are hardly a new story.”
The ability of Russia to mobilize large numbers of troops, and Ukraine’s inability to do so, has been a central feature of the war in the past two years.
This asymmetry in mobilizing personnel is a key source of Russia’s current advantage in the ground war. The situation is so bad that Ukrainian infantry shortfalls are resulting in a range of other military personnel having to re-role as infantry in parts of the frontline.
A recent report from RFE/RL describes how:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-infantry-crisis-military-army-war/33497989.html
“Drivers, artillerymen, and cooks” are holding the line, says Bohdan Krotevich, an officer formerly with the Azov Brigade’s headquarters. “A maximum of 12 fighters hold sections 5-10 kilometers wide.
5/
This has created a disadvantage for #Ukraine in the correlation of ground forces and allowed the Russians to continue adapting their small unit tactics.
The Russians now employ what the Ukrainian commander-in-chief has described as total infiltration tactics.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-resort-to-total-infiltration-tactics-in-front-line-pokrovsk-ukraines-commander-in-chief-says/
The central component of these tactics is the employment of small numbers of infantry to penetrate undefended, or poorly defended parts of Ukraine’s frontline, seize terrain, dig in and call forward following echelons to consolidate their holdings and then repeat the same approach over and over again.
6/
It should be emphasized that these attacks are not always successful, and on many occasions, the initial assault by the Russians is snuffed out by a combination of Ukrainian drones, mines, indirect and direct fires.
But when it does work (and Russia is constantly probing for Ukrainian weaknesses along the line), it can be effective.
A final point: infiltration tactics are hardly new. It has been a response by many military institutions when the lethality of the battlefield increases significantly (World War One on the western front is just one example of this
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/leavenworth-papers-4-the-dynamics-of-doctrine.pdf
) and is always an option for offensive operations.
The Russians appear to have leveraged infiltration to exploit current Ukrainian shortfalls on the ground, despite the visibility and strike capability that Ukraine has with its highly effective drone units and the development of its drone wall.
As I write this, there are reports that the Russian ground forces have been able to undertake these infiltration tactics with dismounted forces (with some support by light vehicles) up to 17 kilometers deep inside Ukraine’s frontline defenses.
As the maps below show, there remains a degree of uncertainty about the actual depth of penetration and the size of Russian forces that are now in the salient.
But a Russian salient has been created which Ukraine has no choice but to respond to.
(Infiltration is a standard tactic for armies. Source: U.S. Army doctrinal publication, FM3-90, Tactics (2023).
7/
For the past three years, and especially in the wake of the very successful 2022 Kharkiv offensive conducted by the Ukrainians, many have waited for the next great breakthrough on the battlefield.
The 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive was supposed to penetrate Russia’s southern defenses, liberate large swathes of southern Ukraine and bring Russia to the negotiating table.
However, a lack of surprise, employment of inexperienced troops and a lack of sufficient enablers ensured that there was no breakthrough by the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian #Kursk operation in 2024 learned from the lessons of 2023.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-kursk-incursion-six-month-assessment
It achieved a breakthrough, but the exploitation was limited by the size of the Ukrainian force involved, coverage of fires, UAVs, EW and logistics, as well as an increasingly strong Russian defensive response.
8/8
Events in the past 72 hours have demonstrated, again, that surprise is possible on the modern battlefield. Under the right conditions, it remains possible to penetrate deeply into enemy-held territory and achieve a shock effect that can be further exploited.
There are three key questions about this ongoing Russian operation, which I seek to address in this article:
1. Can Russia turn this tactical penetration into an operational breakthrough?
2. Will Putin leverage this penetration to influence US decision-making in Alaska and afterwards?
3. What hard choices might Ukraine have to make to contain this penetration?
By:
@WarintheFuture
https://open.substack.com/pub/mickryan/p/russias-penetration-of-ukraines-eastern?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=nhh6y
🧵Thread by @anno1540
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955497096447943043?s=46
Regarding foreign companies, it may be interesting for Ukrainian defense companies to establish themselves in Sweden.
Come Back Alive is involved in defense-related projects and their financing. They may be able to guide you further.
https://savelife.in.ua/en/about-foundation-en/
Ulrainsk drones and robot technology built in a safe place?
start contacting in UA then proceed with SE?
Hedlund mentions Turkey and Azerbaijan as possible saviors of the United States. What does the collective expertise say about that?
https://www.expressen.se/debatt/debatt-motet-i-alaska-kan-bli–starten-pa-ett-storkrig/
All -stan countries have benefited from the war in Ukraine in such a way that they have been able to partially free themselves from Russian influence.
Azerbaijan has come furthest in this process as it has received a lot of support from Turkey. Now that the PKK has laid down its arms, Erdogan needs a new enemy to unite the country against. Turkey and Russia support different sides even in Libya.
But it is unlikely that it will escalate to war.
Azerbaijan has recently taken a tough stance against Russia so something is brewing.
Everyone knows that if RU is allowed to persist, it will become Soviet again.
Turkey is on the rise as a regional great power, and Muscovy is nothing more than a regional great power (even though Putin would like it to be a global great power, and for some unfathomable reason, Trump treats Muscovy as a global great power). Turkey also has ethnic/cultural connections to several of the *stan countries (and Azerbaijan) and plays the same cards as the Russians regarding ethnicity and the right to interfere. Moscovia delenda est.
Turkey, like Poland, certainly has a strong defense, so they probably have the muscles, the question is if they have the will. So far, they have managed to maintain a somewhat good relationship with Russia. Many Russians go there on vacation and buy properties there. Turkey also imports quite a lot from Russia.
Artiklar #Pokrovsk Kyiv Independent
Ukraine takes ‘effective measures’ to stop Russian infiltration near Dobropillia, Pokrovsk, military says. The General Staff said more than 110,000 Russian troops are concentrated in the Pokrovsk area and are attempting to penetrate defenses by sending small infantry units between Ukrainian lines.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-takes-effective-measures-to-stop-russian-infiltration-near-dobropillia-pokrovsk/
Ukraine says small Russian unit passed defenses near Dobropillia but denies breakthrough claims. The statement comes as the Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState reported that Russian forces made a push toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in Donetsk Oblast.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-small-russian-units-passed-defenses-near-dobropillia-but-denies-breakthrough/
Elite Azov Corps deployed to Pokrovsk sector amid Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. The 1st Azov Corps described the situation along the Pokrovsk axis as “complex and dynamic,” with Russian troops attempting to advance.
https://kyivindependent.com/azov-corps-takes-defensive-positions-near-pokrovsk-amid-escalating-battles/
We hope that Azov can clean up north of Pokrovsk.
Seems like UA has received reinforcements and could stabilize the situation
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955497096447943043?s=46
Mike @WarintheFuture:
The thin salient that the Russian forces have created in eastern Ukraine over the past few days stands like a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukraine’s line of fortress cities.
Small groups of Russian group troops have apparently penetrated a section of the Ukrainian defensive line.
In my latest assessment of the war in #Ukraine, I seek to answer the following questions:
1. Can Russia turn this tactical penetration into an operational breakthrough?
2. Will Putin leverage this penetration to influence US decision-making in Alaska and afterwards?
3. What hard choices will Ukraine need to make to contain this penetration?
The situation remains complex and dynamic. The enemy is attempting to advance in this direction at the cost of significant losses in manpower and equipment.
Units within the corps have planned and carried out actions to block enemy forces in the area.
First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, 12 August 2025
3/ The thin salient that the Russian forces have created in the Ukrainian defensive regime in eastern Ukraine over the past few days stands like a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukraine’s line of fortress cities.
Small groups of Russian group troops have apparently penetrated a section of the Ukrainian defensive line that was fortified, but those fortifications were not manned at the time according to some reports. kyivpost.com/post/57990
4/ “Reports of manpower shortages in Ukraine’s armed forces are hardly a new story.”
The ability of Russia to mobilize large numbers of troops, and Ukraine’s inability to do so, has been a central feature of the war in the past two years.
This asymmetry in mobilizing personnel is a key source of Russia’s current advantage in the ground war. The situation is so bad that Ukrainian infantry shortfalls are resulting in a range of other military personnel having to re-role as infantry in parts of the frontline.
A recent report from RFE/RL describes how: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-infantry-crisis-military-army-war/33497989.html
“Drivers, artillerymen, and cooks” are holding the line, says Bohdan Krotevich, an officer formerly with the Azov Brigade’s headquarters. “A maximum of 12 fighters hold sections 5-10 kilometers wide.
5/ This has created a disadvantage for #Ukraine in the correlation of ground forces and allowed the Russians to continue adapting their small unit tactics.
The Russians now employ what the Ukrainian commander-in-chief has described as total infiltration tactics. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-resort-to-total-infiltration-tactics-in-front-line-pokrovsk-ukraines-commander-in-chief-says/
The central component of these tactics is the employment of small numbers of infantry to penetrate undefended, or poorly defended parts of Ukraine’s frontline, seize terrain, dig in and call forward following echelons to consolidate their holdings and then repeat the same approach over and over again.
6/ It should be emphasized that these attacks are not always successful, and on many occasions, the initial assault by the Russians is snuffed out by a combination of Ukrainian drones, mines, indirect and direct fires.
But when it does work (and Russia is constantly probing for Ukrainian weaknesses along the line), it can be effective.
A final point: infiltration tactics are hardly new. It has been a response by many military institutions when the lethality of the battlefield increases significantly (World War One on the western front is just one example of this https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/leavenworth-papers-4-the-dynamics-of-doctrine.pdf ) and is always an option for offensive operations.
The Russians appear to have leveraged infiltration to exploit current Ukrainian shortfalls on the ground, despite the visibility and strike capability that Ukraine has with its highly effective drone units and the development of its drone wall.
As I write this, there are reports that the Russian ground forces have been able to undertake these infiltration tactics with dismounted forces (with some support by light vehicles) up to 17 kilometers deep inside Ukraine’s frontline defenses.
As the maps below show, there remains a degree of uncertainty about the actual depth of penetration and the size of Russian forces that are now in the salient.
But a Russian salient has been created which Ukraine has no choice but to respond to.
(Infiltration is a standard tactic for armies. Source: U.S. Army doctrinal publication, FM3-90, Tactics (2023).
7/ For the past three years, and especially in the wake of the very successful 2022 Kharkiv offensive conducted by the Ukrainians, many have waited for the next great breakthrough on the battlefield.
The 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive was supposed to penetrate Russia’s southern defenses, liberate large swathes of southern Ukraine and bring Russia to the negotiating table.
However, a lack of surprise, employment of inexperienced troops and a lack of sufficient enablers ensured that there was no breakthrough by the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian #Kursk operation in 2024 learned from the lessons of 2023. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-kursk-incursion-six-month-assessment
It achieved a breakthrough, but the exploitation was limited by the size of the Ukrainian force involved, coverage of fires, UAVs, EW and logistics, as well as an increasingly strong Russian defensive response.
8/8 Events in the past 72 hours have demonstrated, again, that surprise is possible on the modern battlefield. Under the right conditions, it remains possible to penetrate deeply into enemy-held territory and achieve a shock effect that can be further exploited.
There are three key questions about this ongoing Russian operation, which I seek to address in this article:
1. Can Russia turn this tactical penetration into an operational breakthrough?
2. Will Putin leverage this penetration to influence US decision-making in Alaska and afterwards?
3. What hard choices might Ukraine have to make to contain this penetration?
By: @WarintheFuture
https://open.substack.com/pub/mickryan/p/russias-penetration-of-ukraines-eastern?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=nhh6y
🧵Thread by @anno1540
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1955497096447943043?s=46
Rassslar in good texts today 205 😀😀
Yes, 205 is in great shape!
MXT: A comment limping: Your comment is awaiting moderation
Has cleared permission to post the thread in its entirety with the thread author.
Sorry, been busy, approved now!
“The second is that the ever-changing wind vane Lukashenko announced that he will not run in any more elections despite having just won an election and Russia seems to be winning the war”
Lukashenko’s announcement that he will not run in any more elections suggests one of the following options:
Maybe but why do it right after an election when he has 4 years ahead of him?
MINSK. Aug 12 (Interfax) – Belarusians should accept the idea that their country may soon have a different president, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on a trip to the Shklov district on Saturday.
“I already begin saying publicly to you all: you must get used (I have spoiled you a bit) to having a different president,” Lukashenko was quoted by the SB-Belarus Today state news outlet as saying.
He reassured local residents that he was not going to abandon them tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. “In life anything can happen. You must get used to the fact that, just like all of you, I am not eternal,” Lukashenko said.
Before he goes, he would like to make sure that he bequeaths a calm and peaceful country to the Belarusians, the president said.
“When I am gone and live somewhere in a village next to you, you will reminisce and be grateful that it has not gotten worse,” Lukashenko said.
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105011/
There is no schedule for when he will resign.
The last sentence is interesting and one can wonder what he means by that.
The man seems to have self-awareness regarding his own mortality, which neither Trump nor his handler in the Kremlin possess.
Yes, he probably means that he has maneuvered skillfully and kept the country out of the Ukraine war. There is something to that. Or maybe it’s his generals who have kept a cool head.
He probably has some self-awareness, but at the same time I think Belarus will become a Russian oblast. It started with the Wagner gang, then there were some nuclear weapons (or replicas) that were moved there, and Putin probably wouldn’t do that without having full control over the country.
The statement is misquoted/misinterpreted according to some sources
https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/belarus-president-aleksandr-lukasjenko-jag-staller-inte-upp-i-nasta-val
Once again, we seem to be at a tipping point where the smallest flutter of a butterfly’s wing can determine the future of Western civilization. In large part, it’s a matter of timing; Putin may have some support, but he is still racing against the clock. If he doesn’t make his move soon, Ukraine and Europe will have built up their capacity while his house of cards comes crashing down.
What I don’t understand is the long game. Let’s say Putin realizes he has bitten off more than he can chew and backs down. For how long? The consensus seems to be that he is regrouping to launch an attack on Europe in three, four, five years. How many times will this cycle repeat? Wouldn’t it be reasonable to hit Russia so hard that they are forced to turn inward, collapse, and have the opportunity for a fresh start towards a healthier future? Is there the political will and courage to do that? Or are we afraid to kick the beehive for fear of nuclear retaliation and masses of people fleeing? Or – are we in the West so civilized and complacent that we would rather die by bullets than by shame?
There is a lack of political courage, they do not want to be the ones who gave the order to send Europe’s youth into a battle where many of them will not come back. The risk of nuclear war is also a factor, as they know that if Russia presses the button, they will target the largest possible civilian areas. The Russian leaders will hide behind their civilians.
An active military intervention also means that our leaders will lose control over the situation, and that is also frightening for our peace-loving politicians.
Moved on but well written Peter the Great 👍👍👍
I’m thinking Hitler – Putin has the same ambitions to grow like a mushroom
🇺🇦 Malyuk: Crimean Bridge is a hazardous structure. Strikes on it have become the SBU’s calling card.
After three hits, it operates in limited mode: only trucks under 5 tons can cross, and no Russian military logistics use it.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lwbad45s422n
5 tons is not much, even a light truck with goods reaches that weight.
Last night, drones struck the largest hub of the Druzhba main oil pipeline network — the Unecha LPDS station in the Bryansk region.
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lwbad2dtmc2w
Hmm. Yes, Putin fears a ceasefire. And a Ukraine that remains independent albeit with a slightly reduced territory. It is a failure in light of the grand ambitions to de-Nazify Ukraine. The ridiculous hohols. Zelensky wasn’t even a legitimate president.
Ukraine was severely underestimated. Russia has taken a beating from what was supposed to be a swift SMO that would quickly be sorted out and managed with the left hand. It is clear that Putin is afraid of forces in Russia that he cannot control after peace. Expect a drawn-out process before this war can be put to rest. With or without Putin.
Well written Lasse W 👍👍
Zelensky has already arrived in Berlin, where he will meet with Chancellor Merz and participate in video conferences with Trump, Vance, European leaders and the NATO Secretary General.
Our time’s Churchill
Our time’s Churchill who will soon meet our time’s Chamberlain, Papen, and Bernhard Tapie before they call over the Atlantic to our time’s Groucho Marx.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣✊
Metz’s stocks at home in Germany apparently stand at a low price. Could that make him show boldness? Or cowardice?
He has 4 years until the next election and should not take opinion polls into account.
These polls only breed weak leaders,
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣✊
Metz, Ålen the second.
“⚡️Ukraine strikes oil facility in western Russia in overnight drone attack, Kyiv confirms. Ukrainian drones targeted the Unecha oil pumping station, part of the Transneft Druzhba pipeline network, sparking a large fire, an intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lwbj3c25ic2h
“Drones attack refineries in Sloviansk-on-Kuban and Volgograd, fire reported Russian oil refineries in two regions came under drone attack overnight, with debris from intercepted aircraft damaging a residential building in Volgograd”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3lwbgdlqzwd2h
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/13/drones-attack-refineries-in-sloviansk-on-kuban-and-volgograd-fire-reported/
Russian media confirms.
“Russian media report that a fire has broken out at the Unecha linear production dispatch station in Bryansk region, the largest hub of the Druzhba oil pipeline network — one of the biggest and most powerful in the world.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lwbsq3p3ws2m
Those there have not been allowed to go after earlier in A WHOLE WAR.
“❗️As many as 12 towers and elevated platforms for the Pantsir-S1 SAM have been installed around Putin’s residence in 🇷🇺Valdai. A year ago, there were 2 In addition, at least one S-400 air defense system position was also discovered nearby.
Thus, there are now only five times fewer air defense systems around Putin’s residence in Valdai than in Moscow and the region.”
Lobby off a few drones there on a regular basis to ensure that it continues to be tied up.
It’s just a matter of getting inside the circle, like a disguised ice cream truck filled with FPV.
I have the perfect “disguise”.
With love from Sweden 🇸🇪
😂
“💥 Results of the destruction of TRLK-10 “Skala-M” radar in Crimea, village of Abrikosivka, – Dnipro Osint The destruction of the specified radar will significantly weaken the enemy’s use of aviation, which the occupiers use to destroy civilian infrastructure and civilians.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lwbidiwklc2j
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers from the 3rd Assault Brigade destroy 🇷🇺Russian tanks, guns and MLRS TOS-1A in the Kharkiv direction”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lwbgx5dhlk2i
Very interesting 205
We also only see a fraction of what the Russians do.
My posts about everything they are responsible for are based on the Cold War and probably apply even if they sound far-fetched.
this is how they have always behaved
More nets?
Are we up to 6-7 now?
Wrote with the first two, who do we have after that and what dates 😭
Mass of good info now.
One thing is that RU is strengthening significantly so the likelihood that they intend to follow a ceasefire is zero.
It’s simply a war strategy.
“⚡️Estonia expels senior Russian diplomat for alleged subversion, sanctions violations. Estonia said Dmitry Prilepin, the first secretary of the Russian Embassy in Tallinn, had engaged in efforts to erode the country’s legal order, sow divisions in society, and aid crimes against the state.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lwbo4r3k7s2j
I am sitting and writing in yesterday’s thread 😶
Can Ukraine go after the nodes of the Druzbha oil infrastructure now that it’s huge.
They haven’t had that in a whole war.
Doesn’t fit in at all with peace on Friday, by the way.
Choose your alternative –
– Ukraine doesn’t give a damn about this now and goes wild.
– Trump plays both sides and stands on our side.
UA frifräser
They may have realized that it makes zero difference to the USA whether they adhere to any agreed upon red lines or not. Trump will always act in Russia’s interest, even if he occasionally says that the Muscovites are foolish. But it only remains as words from Trump.
Strongly believe in alternative 1, although alternative 2 of course cannot be completely ruled out.
🤔
“US official to Axios: If Trump’s rhetoric sounds pro-Russian at times, it’s because he believes that kind of public messaging will help him get a deal. Trump is still pissed off at Putin. He’s really had enough.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lwblysqjvk2u
🤣🤣
Don’t think they’re free-eating, otherwise Trump would vomit bile about Ukraine online. They might have permission, but I wouldn’t dare go so far as to say that Trump is completely on our side. He probably sees a big enough advantage for himself, like, contracts for the construction of gas and oil infrastructure in Russia in the event of peace.
“Belgorod region… BAVOVNA 🤩🔥”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lwbshdlmv22j
Trump is a bit grumpy.
“President Trump: Very unfair media at work on my meeting with Putin. Constantly quoting fired losers and really dumb people like John Bolton, who just said that, even though the meeting is on American soil, “Putin has already won.” What’s that all about? We are winning on EVERYTHING.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lwbray6hqk2e
Trump needs to get some pressure on him before the meeting.
“🥴🤡Russia will not make territorial concessions in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions: “The territorial structure of Russia is enshrined in the country’s constitution,” – the Russian Foreign Ministry.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lwboxrzvas2i
Trump expands his golf empire. Was included as part of his trade agreement with Vietnam. When it comes to corruption, he is probably not far behind Putin soon.
“The Vietnamese farmer Nguyen Thi Huong, whom the news agency Reuters has spoken to, has been ordered to leave her farm outside Hanoi to make way for a golf resort to be operated by the Trump family. She is offered only $3,200 and rice as compensation.
Thousands of villagers have been offered similar compensation packages in exchange for leaving the land that has been theirs for years or decades. This is according to both documents and six sources that Reuters has spoken to.
Construction of the resort is planned to begin next month and is the first collaboration for the Trump family business in Vietnam. The agreement was expedited in connection with the countries negotiating a trade agreement in early July.”
https://omni.se/bonder-i-vietnam-ger-upp-mark-for-trumps-golfbana/a/1M28vB
There may be some Vietnamese individuals who take the difference?
Let’s focus on things that can be criticized and let SVT and Aftonbladet engage in opinion formation for the left.
Well, Trump hasn’t directly bribed the poor farmers, of course there are some others who are also profiting in between.
This is not opinion formation for the left, it is opinion formation against Trump, well on its way to becoming the most corrupt American president so far (if he is not already there).
He is in good company then?
Isn’t corruption more the rule than the exception for congress, senate, cabinet, and president?
I can actually think that those who pretend to be defenders of the working class and live well on it are even bigger hypocrites but Trump is something completely different because he has used the whole world as a lever in his business model 😀
Does Trump do enough stupid things that we don’t need to distort the truth?
When the left constantly makes empty claims and sometimes outright lies just because they dislike the politics of someone, the population eventually loses trust or has to choose the path that North Korea takes.
Come with justified criticism and not fantasies, these are fed daily in Swedish media.
Forbes: ‘We’d Call That Corruption’: How Trump Uses The Presidency To Expand His Global Empire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSs1LLr11BM
MSNBC: ‘Carnival of corruption’: Report shows Trump milks presidency for badly needed bailout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZK_9jnCak
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics: “Trump is the most corrupt president in history. Here’s why.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2plS0_JQC6g
“Murphy Slams Trump’s First 100 Days: This Is A Story Of Incompetence, Theft, Mind-Blowing Corruption”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbF0EKVduNc&t=53s
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7FKmSkfRiKo
Then one can always dismiss and reject all criticism by smearing “left” or anti-Trump on the sender and claim that everything is just fake news because it doesn’t align with one’s own view, but in that case, there is never any credible criticism that one needs to care about, because those who are pro-Trump (or pro anything else for that matter) will never express anything negative.
When it comes to Trump’s corruption, it is completely obvious if you look at what he is up to when he enriches himself and those who have contributed with money and other things for him to win the election. But it doesn’t stop there, but that’s just enough.
Kind of like the environmental movement can’t be infiltrated by Russia because their cause is good?
Clearly Trump is corrupt and beyond the ordinary, Biden was corrupt, Obama too – half of the Congress and the Senate.
Bernie Sanders profits from fighting for the weakest, and so does Ocasio Cortez.
Our foremost working-class fighters in government and parliament have salaries I can only dream of, and they all get well-paid consulting jobs in the capitalist business sector after their time as working-class fighters in politics.
What I really hold against Trump, however, is being like George Soros and crashing countries for personal gain – that elevates him to a top position.
His deals involve blood and a lot of suffering, which salary corruption in parliament doesn’t come close to – much worse in hell.
A large part of Sweden’s green transition and subsidy carousel is also corrupt. There are many former politicians involved in this, just look at the Northvolt scandal.
Perhaps it’s time to start cleaning up in Sweden.
Now I probably wrote a long post about it – it’s all about stealing what they first stole from us in taxes.
How is it from a legal perspective regarding the corruption that you claim exists in the green transition and in Northvolt? Has anyone been convicted there? Are there even investigations into bribery or corruption?
The criticism, to my knowledge, has been about the investment setups of the AP funds.
By the way, do you have any other cases within the green transition where something about corruption has come to light?
Feel free to provide concrete examples.
The entire American system of lobbyists and campaign contributions is probably quite corrupt. What makes Trump special is that he is so open about it, like the jumbo jet from Qatar, his cryptocurrency, his pumping and dumping with tariffs, etc. He does favors for the highest bidder.
Would we be very surprised if a Trump Golf Resort appeared on the Crimean Peninsula in a few years?
Can you play there, do you think?
It would be cool if you got a victory perfume with green fee.
You will have to go through some form of rehabilitation program in Siberia before it’s time for the round.
How much land can one get for a little money and rice down there?
Perhaps an investment opportunity?
It is a Vietnamese company that is building the facility and Trump is also not involved in the investment or in compensating the farmers who are forced to move due to the construction. It is the real estate company that has paid Trump’s company 5 million dollars for the brand licensing rights. Five farmers who have to move from their farmland state that the authorities will provide compensation ranging from 12 to 30 dollars per square meter of farmland.
https://omni.se/a/4B2GGo
Feels a bit difficult to accuse Trump of corruption in this case.
Not involved?
“Donald Trump’s family business is set to run a large golf club outside the Vietnamese capital Hanoi.”
So his family business is going to run the club, how likely is it then that the real estate company is paying 5 million USD to use the brand if they are not going to run it themselves? They don’t need a brand to build a property. Clearly, it’s a bribe to get the contract.
Of course, Trump himself hasn’t paid any farmers, but considering the kind of person Trump is, there may well be other irregularities involved in securing the right to build.
Do you think Qatar just spontaneously thought it was a good idea to gift him a plane because he’s such a nice guy, or do you think they got something in return?
We speculate freely about everything else, but Trump should be off-limits?
You obviously have trouble seeing things from a legal perspective.
In what way has Trump acted corruptly in this case, as you claim in your first post?
Come out of the sandbox and realize that you were wrong in your eagerness to smear Trump.
If you do not admit this, you lose credibility.
I wrote “was included as a part”.
“Well” implies that it could be so, or can be seen as a question and should be more seen as sarcastic, and considering how Trump behaves otherwise, it is a justified suspicion.
Nice to finally be let back into the warmth again. It was a few boring days without world-leading analysis. Removing the page’s cookies helped. Thanks to IT and Johan for the help 👍
Nice to have you back! 👍
Same here I removed cookies so everyone reading without being able to write anything – remove cookies.
A bit of a catch-22 situation when/if you can’t even access the page to read about how to access the page 😉
I saw that Crude Oil has dropped below 63 now, let’s hope it continues.
✊✊
My little survey above where everyone believes in alternative 1.
Which I also do.
In the long run, this means that Ukraine has a support in Europe that we are not aware of 🧐
No, not necessarily, right?
It could be as simple as not caring about what others say, fighting against the wind and using everything they can even if they risk getting Trump against them (maybe they have already given up hope on him anyway).
Yes, it is a possibility but I think the probability is greater that they have brought along Poland, the Baltics, and Finland.
Azerbaijan has significantly changed course.
I’m not guessing with -stan, but with Europe.
Yes, Azerbaijan has clearly turned.
When it comes to oil, they may have convinced Poland if they have managed to redirect so they can do without the Russian oil. Germany closed its part a long time ago.
If Hungary sours, maybe they won’t care now, they have obstructed the whole war and don’t seem to have changed their minds.
What have I missed?
Nejni, something is going on here 🧐
Ukraine has not had drone attacks on refineries since February this year, and now we are up to seven in two weeks. It’s the same intensity as when it was at its best in 2024 and early 2025 actually.
They have also targeted oil depots and now transport nodes for Druzhba, which they have not been allowed to do in an entire war.
If Ukraine doesn’t stop this time, anything can happen – especially targeting the northern oil and refinery pipelines could lead to a complete halt – if it explodes at that mother node, I’ll have to have a beer to calm down.
What is being destroyed now is also infrastructure from somewhere to Russia 🧐
It doesn’t necessarily have to be the case that someone asked them to stop (even though it probably is).
It could have been as simple as they got less return in the previous wave towards the end, the Russians started setting up defenses and scoring both this and that. It may have become harder to reach the nearby targets.
Perhaps they have improved and built up their capability with better drones, better precision, and explosive power.
Or maybe it was Biden who didn’t want to raise oil prices before last year’s election, maybe in exchange for allowing them to strike 100km into Russia.
But they did hit some refineries, right? Of course, it could be that Trump said no from the beginning, maybe as part of the “peace negotiations,” etc. but it could just as well be that they didn’t have more to send, or that the technology still needed improvement.
These are not simple FTV drones, and navigating into Russia with maintained precision despite interference is probably not entirely straightforward. There is probably a reason why Russia intermittently shuts down the mobile network, etc.
As mentioned, they may not have received approval from anyone, even though of course they might have.
Anyway, I just hope they can keep up the pressure!!
No, that’s not the case.
Ukraine has had the ability to combat everything they want since 2024.
Now August 2025 Druzhba.
The refineries hit them far from all but took a long break in the middle of Trump’s negotiating round where he threatened to withdraw support several times.
They didn’t kill Putin on May 9th even though they could have easily done so.
They didn’t want to kill Putin themselves, I don’t think.
I don’t know who he will be replaced by, and a population whose leader has been killed will demand revenge.
Thank you for all the help – I found the refinery on the 11th in Komi.
Now you know why the Druzhba pipeline hasn’t been bombed 😀
Is the self-image still intact?
Self-image? 😂
What do you mean has happened now? Would Orbán suddenly have given permission?
Still believe that it is more likely that Ukraine doesn’t give a damn about any “bans” or that they haven’t had the ability (or the will) to strike against them earlier.
The leadership is buried and is only easily accessible at the pump stations and some other places.
Not an easy target to strike against considering the Russians’ EW etc. and we don’t know if they have tried before but failed.
It is actually in Ukraine’s own interest not to provoke those who support them, now they may be desperate enough to ignore it.
Germany already closed its part in 2023 and Ukraine closed its part in 2024.
Maybe it’s revenge against Orbán for being almost as cocky as me!
The limit of tediousness coincides well with the northern border?
😂
By the way, it may be so simple that all the countries that have been dependent on Russian oil via pipelines have now announced that they are now receiving the oil they need through other routes.
It only took three years
It’s not just about buying from somewhere else, it also has to be produced more. It’s not like someone is pumping oil and pouring it out.
Is it your self-image that Europe prevented Ukraine from combating the infrastructure that could have been potentially war-winning?
And as recently as 2024, Europe provided more support in EUR to Russia than to Ukraine?
And that we then got back these EUR when companies in Europe sold the machinery and technology needed for Russian military industry so we have helped them build it up?
Now maybe that’s the case because you have read the posts but I don’t think the average Ukrainian supporter fully understands this?
And we should well try to stick to the truth here, is that the idea?
What truth are you talking about?
I actually don’t know if Ukraine has actually been asked to stop, or if Ukraine themselves have realized that it’s a bad idea. Or that maybe they haven’t had the possibility (even though it feels a bit unlikely). I’m also not saying that the alternatives I’m offering are the truth, but explaining that there may be other explanations.
Buying oil doesn’t mean that you’re supporting in the same way as when you give money and weapons to Ukraine. After all, there is a production cost and we have had a price ceiling significantly below the market price.
It’s annoying that we are dependent on oil, but don’t you think that Europe would have found other alternatives if it were possible to do it easily without huge cost increases?
Good heavens – with all you already know about what Ukraine has not been allowed to do, your first sentence is not okay MXT.
After all, you are supposed to be one of the founders of a site where we try to discuss this as transparently as possible.
The rest is just wrong – all the hard currency Russia receives goes straight to their arms industry.
I don’t think your defense of Europe here in a variety of posts looks good at all.
You mean you know, but most of it is speculation.
How do you think an oil crisis would work?
Not saying it’s good and it would have been resolved long ago, but where would they have bought their oil then?
Now OPEC has increased its production on a few occasions as well as the USA, but Venezuela, which has enormous resources, is sanctioned, Norway is pumping as much as possible.
If Russia were to stop all oil exports, it would crash completely.
Knocked out refineries, on the other hand, are perfect. Destroy their domestic market with higher prices, they are forced to lower the price of what they export to get rid of the excess.
Wait here – what you are writing makes it sound like it’s only Orban who imports Russian oil or refineries?
That’s definitely not the case, right? And you know that just as well as the rest of us, I guess?
I meant that it might be that he who is left is the one dependent on it.
Why would the others give their consent if they still need it?
That Europe has given its permission is something you have cooked up entirely on your own without knowing 😀
Absolutely, just like what you’re cooking up! 😂
Polen säger att dess roll som en knutpunkt för hjälp till Ukraina har gjort det till ett mål för ryska och vitryska hemliga tjänster och anklagar Moskva och Minsk för att ha beställt sabotagehandlingar såsom mordbrand på polsk mark.
Poland charges group with sabotage on behalf of Russian and Belarusian intelligence (https://tvpworld.com/88313706/arson-attacks-poland-charges-group-with-sabotage-on-behalf-of-russian-belarusian-intelligence)
Is it Tomsk that is the single point of failure for all oil transport between eastern and western Russia?
That they have had to fight, or are still fighting, Druzhba is absolutely sensational 😍😍😍
If you read the article, you will see that this is a key strategic target that Ukraine has not been able to touch throughout the entire war.
Even though Russia has repeatedly knocked out all of UA’s refining and electricity production capabilities – that tells you a lot about the West’s betrayal here, doesn’t it?
You might understand why I’ve been mocking Biden, Scholz, Macron, Starmer, Trump throughout the entire war – there are extremely good reasons for it.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58040
Treachery and betrayal.
As I just wrote above, can be as simple as all the countries that have been dependent on Russian oil via pipelines have now announced that they will now receive the oil they need through other routes.
It would be foolish of Ukraine to stop the oil and cause trouble for those who are actually helping them.
Replacing oil via pipelines is not done during a coffee break, just like there was a bit of panic when the gas disappeared.
Europe did not forbid buying Russian oil either, they simply set a price ceiling because it’s not that easy. Crashed economies would not have made the situation better for Ukraine directly.
Oil prices could have skyrocketed if all Russian oil were to be stopped immediately.
It’s still quite exciting that you’re okay with Europe prolonging this war, because that is the de facto outcome of our great support to Russia.
-Being dependent = can’t do without, an interesting choice of words.
-treason-treason = suggests you don’t agree?
“hole in Ukraine’s head to stop the oil” – why then?
It’s quite clear that you think the oil price is important here.
Actually, I don’t think so, I believe Russia should have lost the war as quickly as possible so we could rip off the band-aid right away.
Why then – well, because the whole of Europe agrees that Russia now poses a threat to us as well.
Sure, we could have ripped off the band-aid and tried to stop all Russian oil. Then we would have faced an oil shortage and oil prices at 150-200/barrel and risked entering a global recession with all that entails. It might have taken up to a year before things were back in order.
But could we have stopped all exports from Russia?
No, they would have of course sold their oil to an even better profit because they would have found buyers anyway.
It’s true that it’s bad that European countries are buying, but it’s at a reduced price and if we had bought elsewhere, someone else would have bought the Russian oil.
What could have been done is to put pressure on all other producers to increase capacity and promise to buy from them instead, gradually phasing out oil from Russia.
But wait, isn’t that kind of what has been done…
🇷🇺 🕵️♀️ 🇺🇸
Honeytraps, prostitution and love affairs..
Zarubina, 34, was first arrested in November 2024 and charged with making false statements to the FBI about her relationship with a Russian intelligence officer. Prosecutors said she operated under the code name “Alyssa,” and in April 2025, a grand jury returned additional charges against her, including allegedly transporting women across state lines for prostitution and lying on her U.S. citizenship application.
Prosecutors also referenced texts in which Zarubina appeared to allege high-level coverups related to sex trafficking, urging the FBI to investigate judges and law enforcement for ties to massage parlors and “long term relationships with Slavic females involving money.”
Her arrest drew attention not only for the espionage-related allegations but also because of her reported prior work for Elena Branson, a Russian national indicted in 2022 for acting as an unregistered foreign agent. Branson, who had fled the United States by the time charges were announced, headed the Russian Center New York and oversaw its “I Love Russia” campaign — an effort prosecutors linked to Kremlin-backed propaganda.
Russian Woman Accused of Lying to FBI Ordered to Undergo Mental Evaluation
https://www.occrp.org/en/news/russian-woman-accused-of-lying-to-fbi-ordered-to-undergo-mental-evaluation
Definitely not available in Europe, by the way 👍
Hope for peace, at the same time it is suggested that the ball is in Putin’s court?
Can be interpreted in two ways. Either there is agreement to take a tough stance against Putin if he does not give in (so they feel confident that he will do so) or that there is a strong desire for peace that they will agree to most of Putin’s demands.
Regardless, it is good to signal unity. Hopefully, this can make Trump feel that he cannot agree to anything.
“The European leaders who participated in today’s discussion on Ukraine with Donald Trump are optimistic about the American president’s meeting with Vladimir Putin on Friday.
– There is hope for peace in Ukraine, says Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a press conference afterwards.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also participated, says the meeting was positive.
– The feeling now is that we are united, and that is very positive, he says according to The Guardian.
According to French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump agrees that Ukraine must be allowed to participate in negotiations concerning the country’s territory. Trump is also working to arrange a physical meeting between him, Putin, and Zelensky.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked Donald Trump for his involvement in the work for peace in Ukraine.
– The ball is now in Putin’s court, he says.”
I believe you and all European leaders are missing the most important thing – peace means global conflict for us in Europe.
So there is nothing good about this anywhere at all.
Especially since Zelensky is telling us that Ukraine sees Russia strengthening everywhere.
It depends entirely on the reason for achieving peace and what it looks like.
If (unlikely) Europe and Trump were to jointly put pressure on Putin and it ends with him giving up all land, it is a peace that will be able to hold.
Putin would not back down unless he realizes he is cornered and has everyone against him. If he backs down now, he won’t start a new war two months later.
So I don’t agree that peace must mean it has to be a global conflict.
If it’s a weak peace that doesn’t cost Putin anything, it’s of course a completely different matter. Then it means he knows he can just go ahead.
What peace do you think will come?
First you write that it is unlikely that Trump will put pressure on Putin. And then you do not agree that peace must be the way to global conflict.
You have a very large gap between your two assumptions and not all of Europe agrees with you in their analyses – all of Europe expects a war with Russia within 4 years, right?
What will now happen, as you very well know, is a ceasefire so we can start a discussion about PEACE.
A ceasefire just means that Russia gets a chance to move troops.
Anyway – I am glad to see that you believe there will be peace from this, you are the only one right about that.
Zelensky constantly warns in the media that Russia is now preparing for more conflict.
Generals and analysts as well as Macron, Merz, and others say that Russia will attack us in 4 years.
But do you feel there is a chance for peace with Russia?
You must handle the substantive issues.
The likelihood of a good peace is low, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be a good peace.
I am most afraid that Ukraine will be sold out, if that happens, the risk is high that Russia will continue, whether it happens now or in a few years is difficult to know, but of course, it could lead to a global war in that case.
But it’s not set in stone. Putin may also feel that he got off cheap when the three-day operation didn’t go as planned.
I think projecting threats towards the Baltics is just a diversion. There’s a greater risk he goes south.
Sure, Europe is not ready, but I don’t think Russia is ready either, and I don’t think China is prepared to start a war.
But, of course, that’s what we should be prepared for.
But soon we will know where it’s heading.
Meeting on Friday, Zapad in September.
Either you tone it down or you don’t – this whole peace discussion is uninteresting because it’s an influence operation from Trump and Putin.
The timeframe is roughly between now and next summer – after that, the Baltics have closed the border with Russia with mines and bunkers. Perhaps a bit early but then I am optimistic.
If Russia wants war, they must start it now.
What is the likelihood of a ceasefire now? Russia feels they have momentum, they won’t stop as long as they don’t face enough resistance. Ukraine is retreating, but they can’t surrender or give up land, if they do, it will be mass rapes and mass murders Stalin style.
Putin is only discussing with Trump to gain advantages, to get Trump back on his side, and to have him press Ukraine into submission. Putin will not give anything.
Don’t believe there will be a ceasefire, Putin does not respect Europe, only the US military, and if he wins back Trump’s ear, he may dare to escalate towards the Baltics. China is the wild card, if they go for Taiwan, Europe is likely on its own.
Zero, of course.
I have interpreted it as Europe’s leaders writing a letter demanding a ceasefire, and then Trump goes out with it and it becomes mandatory for Ukraine.
Putin obviously breaks everything all the time.
The purpose is to – disrupt Ukraine and try to incite internal unrest.
Interesting reading.
Somewhat simplified, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia still receive Russian oil imports which they then refine and sell on the European market, so it is not true that the rest of Europe does not have a hand in Russian oil.
In 2024, EU purchases of Russian oil far exceeded our support to Ukraine, and ships from the shadow fleet docked in European ports.
Is it much less in 2025?
In 2023, Zelensky did not manage to knock out the oil depots in Novorossiysk, and he let it be known that it caused a hell of a stir.
Europe has also bought Indian refined products that came from Russian oil, so in that way too, we have supported the war.
In addition, there are two figures about Russian oil, where one that is highlighted is direct purchases and quite small.
I believe that the other figure has tried to include everything that has been tried to conceal, and then it was significantly larger.
It seems like the breakthrough at Pokrovsk has been violently suppressed?
Right now it’s the RU channels screaming, but it will probably calm down soon.
The Pokrovsk breakthrough is a very hot topic, especially on the Russian side, where all possible future scenarios are being played out. That’s when Azov will crash the party.
Azov against reconnaissance patrols on foot was probably a slightly uneven battle, I imagine.
RU was too slow to exploit the breakthrough, simply 😀
Wait here Russian MoD wrote that only ground troops and the air force would participate in Zapad 25.
Is Belarus wrong or is the Russian MoD wrong?
Who is lying because here Belarus confirms that nuclear forces are included in the exercise🧐
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/13/7525986/
Do you think everyone who has informed us that Zapad 25 is only 13,000 and nothing to worry about will change their minds when the nuclear weapons are deployed or not?
I have missed this one, but point by point is exactly what we are discussing
https://www.tovima.com/wsj/the-russian-military-moves-that-have-europe-on-edge/
I believe Putin is sitting comfortably, enjoying scaring Europe so that we focus 90% of our resources on ourselves instead of sending everything to Ukraine.
But as I said, we will see soon!
We were not allowed to send American material before Biden and then Trump.
Then the Czech Republic and Hungary placed orders for a lot of material.
Denmark gave away all its artillery – everything.
Spain and Portugal never give anything away for free.
Now the production lines are starting to run, and if you remember a post I wrote in 2023, I think it was about ÖB starting to focus on national defense so that nothing would go to Ukraine, and that it was a big mistake.
Yes, Europe should give everything to Ukraine, but we have a small problem, we don’t have the material that makes a difference now that Ukraine is producing it themselves.
Another problem that no one is talking about yet is that we lack certain materials to be able to produce enough?
What if China and Africa have stopped exporting to us?
Now they have not completely stopped the export, maybe mainly complicated it with requirements for applications to obtain permission to buy, which has created significant delays. The automotive industry has been affected (magnets) and the stocks have decreased significantly. When it comes to military production, it’s probably not something they disclose. Probably they have secured agreements for a few months ahead (a bit of a different approach) then they are surely also prioritized but there will probably be serious problems there soon as well. Everything possible is affected as it is used for both one thing and another.
So I agree with your concern!
If China becomes aggressive, they probably want the war in Ukraine to continue for another six months so the shortage is serious.
If there were to be a peace agreement, it would suit them well if Russia instead focused on the Baltic states so the war continues and then puts even greater pressure on Europe.
As mentioned, they are also a major supplier of propellant for propulsion charges.
We will roll forward with our Archer and Strv. and poke the enemy in the stomach with the cannons.
Chilling.
In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.
They have clearly cut down on usage. Drones probably make the losses too great. Europe is lagging behind so they can probably bring them out against us.
Well, they probably have around 600 of them now, right?
Then new BMP, Ptgb, and a lot of other stuff for China have really boosted their production lines.
Russia is building 79,000 Shahed drones by 2025.
They use well 2500 SEK/month a little over so it gives a small neat surplus.
This is probably what drives Trump, hoping Europe condemns it.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-ready-to-discuss-aerial-truce-with-russia-zelenskys-aide-says/
You laugh at me when I call the gangs and criminal clans system-threatening and that Russia has contacts with them as tools.
Some who are not laughing are Interpol who confirm it 🧐
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/mar/18/russia-criminal-networks-drive-increase-sabotage-europol
When it comes to the gang, I stand by your side. Must be the most easily recruited to find.
😶
Considering the reported fee for taking someone’s life, one should be able to persuade someone to steal a speed camera/fire engine siren or break into a water treatment plant for a few thousand, also quite risk-free for the perpetrator.
In the past, they needed to study Swedish for ten years, attend spy school, and then be run through the tumble dryer in Europe for a new identity before emerging as effective saboteurs after 20 years.
Today it costs a thousand bucks 😶
Talk about price devaluation
Fun when you get the spy grade and a thirteen-year-old suburban criminal is hailed as king instead
It’s a shame that we’re not allowed to organize organized betting (without permission), otherwise I could have built a simple betting system so we could bet on the different scenarios and let 20% go to Ukraine and the rest be distributed to the winners.
80% for me nothing else
It could be like that if you’re alone in betting on the winning option! 😂
I hit the MXT in what you wrote above that probably is exactly what Trump has been pushing for – fear that he will pull the rug out from under us so we hoard all newly produced goods in Europe instead.
A pretty cunning devil, unfortunately 😶
One can only guess where he got the idea from in that case. Sometimes one wonders if it’s Putin who is completely fooling Trump and making sure to delay, or if it’s Trump who is fooling Europe and Ukraine by delaying.
Or if they are actually a couple.
Trump couldn’t have played into Putin’s hands more than he has without receiving enormous criticism and everyone turning against him.
Now everyone thinks he’s trying to achieve peace but failed, but sometimes one wonders if it’s just a show for the galleries and that he has another agenda (as you suggest). But then it contradicts his stance against China. Perhaps the speculations about dividing the world between the USA, Russia, and China are closest to the truth.
Or maybe he is just as stupid and uninterested in doing what is right as he seems…
A couple, but Trump has the USA behind him.
Azerbaijan has come out absolutely hard against Putin – they have gone to war for less harsh words than that 🤣🤣
The Russian export corridor via Azerbaijan and Iran to the Indian Ocean is probably not going to be a success 😆
Hmmm, Azerbaijan is a 12 million large country with ground troops of 85,000.
They have just started a verbal war and something is brewing.
NEVER would they say what they are saying now if Ukraine was on the brink, and then UA’s offensive reserve immediately becomes interesting.
Russian sabotage in Norway
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/norway-security-service-says-pro-russian-hackers-behind-dam-sabotage/3658521
When the Russians have tested if they can open the dam gates for hydropower, shut down the solar panels, and then poison the water reservoirs.
Why do you think they are testing this?
Excuse me, they have also tried to contaminate the oil being exported to us.
It’s like shooting yourself in the foot.
If that’s true, not many want to deal with Russian oil.
Azerbaijani oil was the one
Wow Wesley, it’s even stated in the link 😀
Do you have to read the link as well 🤡
Start wars and kill people, then be rewarded for stopping.
“Donald Trump can offer Vladimir Putin access to rare minerals to get the Russian president to want to end the war in Ukraine, reports The Telegraph. The newspaper writes that the American president is traveling to Alaska with several economic offers that “may entice Putin”.
https://omni.se/a/VzEXgV
Now the source is European diplomats and not Trump himself, but that sounds good.
“Donald Trump backed several of the demands put forward by Ukraine and Europe ahead of Friday’s talks with Vladimir Putin, according to European diplomats speaking to CNN. The president is said to have expressed support for an unconditional ceasefire. According to sources, Trump’s statement gave the impression that he will not accept any Russian proposals to obtain Ukrainian territory in exchange for a ceasefire. Diplomats state, like several European leaders, that Trump agrees that Ukraine must be involved in negotiations concerning the country’s borders. The American president also wants Ukraine to receive security guarantees, including from the USA. At the same time, sources indicate that there are low expectations for the meeting and that it is not possible to attach too much importance to how Europe interpreted the conversation.”
Russian losses 2025-08-14:
990 KIA
5 Tanks
3 AFVs
29 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
191 UAVs
191 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
(191 two times, probably a mistake)
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lwdj4fn4z222