Since the turn of the year, I have conveyed that Ukraine has offensive capacity and now that they have started targeting refineries again, maybe something has changed?
I thought they would carry out an offensive in the fall of 2024, for which they had a plan, and the drone advantage to do so, but Trump sabotaged everything and gave Kursk back to Putin instead.
Putin couldn’t retake the area, so he had to ask Trump for help to negotiate the issue for him.
I have now decided that Ukraine has sufficient offensive capacity – they can simply carry out offensive operations. I have gone through this and there is no other conclusion to be drawn. For example, the 300 SB90 type vessels they have in various sizes or the enormous amount of mine-clearing vehicles and helicopters.
The number of heavy vehicles lost has dropped significantly, but one must assume that the refurbishment, service, and the program where old tanks get new turrets continue at an unabated pace, right?
If you look at decommissioned vehicles, there are not many, and now all tanks that have been in service should reasonably be ready, right?
The mobilization is said to be functioning according to all UA sources, and according to RU, 200,000 have deserted, but one must assume that UA is not completely collapsing here and that they still have competent units left.
But right now, they are just like during the +3 years of war, hindered by the West and political maneuvering. They are returning to the defense line they built outside the oblasts Putin intends to conquer.
Sirsky has thus in PLAIN TEXT explained to us that both Europe and the USA are still preventing them from targeting objectives in Russia – this is ABSOLUTELY sensational, not that Trump does it but that Europe does it π‘
With friends like these, you hardly need any enemies.
Ukraine is ceding ground to keep losses down, perhaps they learned from Kursk where Trump never acknowledged it as a bargaining chip and gave it back to Putin?
They are incurring minimal losses right now in a delaying action where they are trying to cause maximum losses to RU – the retreat is not a positive signal at all, but the delaying action is.
They know they will have to give up Donetsk and Luhansk anyway, so they are pulling back beyond the oblast border – there are those who do not believe that Kursk was politically motivated even when Ukraine retreated two days before the US envoy landed in Moscow, Trump never acknowledged Kursk, and Putin said he refused to start negotiations until Ukraine was out of Kursk. I don’t know what more evidence deniers need.
It’s exactly the same here – the defense line is outside the oblasts Putin claims to want to conquer, Trump says he will let Putin take them, Ukraine is building the line outside because they are pragmatic and for a delaying action that obviously aims to incur the lowest possible losses.
Trump is the only one who can do right here, or continue to do wrong – if he changes his mind, everything changes.
Europe seems to have completely thrown in the towel – firstly by threatening Zelensky over that damn anti-corruption law, and then also by preventing him from targeting objectives in Russia, which is cowardly, irresponsible, and unethical.
And then the problem will come to us the day Ukraine is no longer the buffer between us and Russia, for example, if Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire…
Like an older traitor hanging out on another blog π
In recent days, two refineries and an oil depot have been targeted, the first time in five months – a possible shift in what Ukraine is targeting, but it’s early, maybe Zelensky also received a call from an upset Trump.
So there is a chance that Trump has “switched sides” and that Ukraine will start fighting again.
Those two submarines in response to Medvedev are not because Trump got a feeling – it’s because the risk of Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine has increased. The same goes for the nuclear weapons they moved to the UK.
Then “we run over Kaliningrad” is a response to an increased threat against the Baltics.
The risk of nuclear weapons being used and Russia attacking the Baltics is so high that the USA has started delivering counter-threats and moving pieces on the board.
And in that context, one must ask why Europe is not preemptively sending in its brigades to the Baltics?
I can guarantee you that Ukraine’s advance will not stop before the country’s eastern border if they are given permission, but this is end-game for Ukraine – this war will not last for many more years.
When Trump was at his worst, the mood in Ukraine was rock bottom, as those who were there say, and that is something GRU/FSB/SVR are very good at capitalizing on, but this time it didn’t work despite MVP to Trump for a brave attempt – he tried to politically bring down Zelensky and then fuel the narrative that the administration was deeply corrupt.
The aftermath with the anti-corruption authority was surely a step in that whole plan, and the EU, those idiots, are playing along π
It may take longer to reach the objectives now than at the turn of the year, but if we get started, it will be decided in 2025 as promised.
However, I don’t think Ukraine dares to go against Trump, and Europe is cowardly and weak as we have always been – so we might also end up with a ceasefire, which would be absolutely devastating.
More on the pro-Ukrainian side are now expressing that it is not good but perhaps inevitable, so it is definitely up for discussion.
It could also be that Ukraine is waiting for an attack on the Baltics, which would actually be a smart move on their part to try to draw in Europe, I would applaud that.
To summarize –
The path Trump and Europe take cannot be determined, but it will determine the war and future global escalation or not.
It is crystal clear that Ukraine has offensive capacity (as I have said since the turn of the year, so it is true).
I also consider it established that RU intends to escalate.
Europe is too cowardly and weak, so then it remains for Trump to change his mind – we are putting our hope in Trump, which I am not particularly pleased to admit, even though his victory perfume is for winners π
A little digression, but I believe that Russia and China see WW2 as a roadmap for how Europe will act and that they are trying to recreate it – we all learn from history, just in different ways.
Ask Poland what they think about how World War II went for them, for example.
Russia intends to restore the Soviet borders, so Ukraine is just a stepping stone, and the door to take the Baltics will probably close in 2026, I guess. Russia obviously knows this too because they have experienced how well deep minefields work.
Russia has also found something that works now against a retreating Ukraine, and Ukraine is by far Europe’s strongest defense force with excellent soldiers who can handle the 2025 war.
Unwanted children are sent forward, UA positions are logged, FAB is put in place, an FPV blanket is laid over the front section, and they advance with competent shooting.
We have also recently seen a couple of mechanical failures in company size or larger – they are also there as tools in the toolbox.
Everything is always changing, and a very big reason Ukraine is backing down is Trump, Europe, and politics. If Ukraine had not had a single restraint and Europe had fully supported them, Putin would have been dangling like a burning piΓ±ata long ago.
In January, Ukraine still had drone superiority at the fronts, and during the fall, they absolutely had drone superiority at a front where they pooled capacity – but they were denied to exploit this advantage.
Instead, Trump gave Kursk back to Putin.
Europe constantly gives more time and no consequences to a group of countries that have already decided to run over us in the hope that they will change, but we are the enablers instead, as a third country suffers.
Before it comes to us, those ahead of us in line are subjected to the same treatment as Ukraine, we turned a blind eye to Belarus, we accuse Israel of October 7, and we have not scrutinized China for India-Pakistan. We have also not lifted a finger for the dozens of countries thrown into chaos in Africa thanks to Wagner’s African corps.
The Cold War was almost better because at least the USA was directly there supporting the other side that had the Soviet Union against them, and vice versa, in a way.
Europe has threatened and then backed down from the threats in an entire war because we have not read the Peter and the Wolf tale – the likelihood that we will not rescue the Baltics is there, and that is what Putin will play on. He will try to enter just before there is a reaction from Europe.
The Baltics have no defense forces to speak of, the eastern border is not fortified, they have no combat experience, and reinforcements will not be able to arrive in the zone where Russia will deny movement, which currently seems to be 50km.
In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine and took a huge amount of land, but then the Ukrainian spirit kicked in, are the Balts from the same mold or not.
This one was not stupid, how a hunter acted the first week of 2022.
Pride comes before a fall – to believe in Putin in 2025, to assume he won’t dare to attack Europe, and not to arm ourselves is, in my opinion, suicidal, but that’s what our politicians do even though we are already in a twilight state in Europe at the level of sabotage – it is war-preparing. Russia is investing enormous resources in this, and why if they plan to stop soon?
What will Europe do when – the Baltic Fleet lies along the coast of Poland with open missile hatches, the missile troops from Luga are deployed, and the nuclear troops as well.
Putin will deny everything for a week, and then when we face a fait accompli and have to retake the Baltics by force, he will stand there grinning at us, and when we try to fly with F35s to scare them, the gangs have acquired manpads and shoot them down at takeoff.
We have little air defense, few missiles, no thousands of long-range drones, no defense against Russian ones, no 4000 FPV drones to shoot down per day, and so on – which Russia now has with China’s help.
Then it’s not like Europe’s collective defense will attack the Russians in the Baltics – no one will do that to begin with, but even fewer can do it, our Swedish defense is 25,000 strong, and we need them to protect ourselves if Russia attacks the Baltics.
High-value targets in the country and Gotland.
Poland will be unlocked against Belarus, Finland against the forces along their land border.
France may send something, but I have the impression that you need to vote on these things in parliaments if it is beyond what has already been approved – like a battalion or brigade in case of war.
Germany will probably also send something.
Can we indirectly target Russian goals and thus reach them, no, I think instead it would be Russia indirectly targeting goals in Europe.
Europe is completely off track now in 2025, 2026, and beyond, maybe it will change, but it is right now that is interesting, and especially how Putin interprets the signs.
That’s why it’s so important that we send everything we have to the Baltics, but we don’t do that – so my question is whether it’s because we know that our forces can’t handle war in 2025 or if it’s due to something else.
Many Chiefs of Defense in Europe have said that we are not ready, for example.
Russia sent over 6500 Gerand drones to Ukraine in July, and the hits have gone from 5% to 15%.
That’s why UA is trying to get their interceptor drones up and running, their LV defense is losing effectiveness.
But it is said that when the Gerand drones get jet engines, they are harder to shoot down.
Here you can see they are soon at the oblast border – if RU stops there, what I have written above is true.
Russia will not have time for everything until Zapad25, which leaves me wondering what will actually happen.
They are simply behind schedule, far too far behind for this to work.
Not much guessing on my part because Trump cannot keep quiet about allowing Putin to go to a certain point – everyone knows that.
I personally guess Operation Baltikum.
No matter how I twist and turn this, Ukraine is the key to a happy ending or to global escalation.
I will return with Azerbaijan, but those places are part of this. However, no one will rise before Ukraine carries out its offensive, and maybe that’s what Europe and the USA are worried about?
But there is no middle ground – either Russia crashes or Ukraine loses, and if Ukraine loses, the war comes to us.
Our leaders must stop being cowards and start working according to the job description, now is a bad time, and we are supposed to get strong leaders, it is said, we have seven political parties in Sweden that are weak and cowardly.
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers, and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying subscribers. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 makes you healthier too π
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ADS
As you have probably noticed, we now have ads on the site. The ads and their placement are managed by Google, which also tries to optimize it automatically. We will let it run for a few weeks to see where it ends up. Some placements feel quite large, but it might get better.
We will then post a survey to hear what you think, if there are too many ads, if there are certain placements that are particularly annoying, etc. so we can make any adjustments after that.
Curious about which is the 8th brave and strong party in the parliament? I can’t say that I’ve seen it so far.
Today’s cliffhanger!
Relative to the summer, a low total (151) and also one of the lower number of attacks on one of the most active front sections, Pokrovsk with 45 attacks (average since May 1, 2025: 59). Yes, one can discern some decrease. The front section that seems most constant with high pressure is Lyman.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 18π₯
S Slobozhansky 9π₯
Kupyansk 9π₯
Lyman 28π₯π₯
Siverskyi 9π₯βοΈ
Kramatorsk 2βοΈ
Toretsk 6
Pokrovsk 45π₯π₯π₯βοΈ
Novopavlivka 18π₯βοΈ
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 1
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 5βοΈ
π
At least Macron has hinted that it may be relevant to provide troops in Ukraine. Discussions in general about sending Western troops to monitor the border with Belarus. Take care of the airspace. Some examples.
So the Baltics.
Regardless, it is about facing the Russian herd where it stands, whether it is in Ukraine or the Baltics.
Is it too early to send troops to the Baltics?
One should have ensured to start their own exercise in the Baltics to have troops in place during ZAPAD 2025 IF Russia intended to exploit the situation (they have done so before).
Well, what I mean is that you might as well deploy the troops towards any part of Ukraine, for example an attack from Belarus. Easier/faster for you to regroup than for the West to move troops from the Baltics to Ukraine.
Ah, yes, I believe that is considerably more likely than, for example, them going into Lithuania.
A troop to northern Ukraine is something I think has been overdue for over two years now. It would be extremely valuable if France dares to take the first step.
At the same time, we should still be better prepared north of Belarus, but of course, that could be exactly what Russia is hoping for, that we will concentrate on that side, then they will instead launch a new full-scale attack into Ukraine.
If one could only choose one or the other, I would send troops to Ukraine.
IF Russia + Belarus choose to move towards, for example, Lithuania, Belarus is a belligerent party.
If the West has troops in Ukraine, they then have full legitimacy to enter Belarus even if it is from the “wrong” direction.
Troops in Ukraine will therefore likely ensure that at least Belarus will not participate in any attacks on any Baltic state.
Macron has problems with his wife, he is busy.
Just a moment, wasn’t there a status update here as you promised?
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-08-05
SLAVA UKRAINI
High KWIA and mechanical failure it seems, which is also addressed by Johan above in today’s blog. The artillery is mediocre considering the season, while artillery bombardments (below) on a larger scale.
The British practice “Rule Britannia” every year at the Last Night of the Proms.
Of course they help out, they even have old sea charts from the Battle of Copenhagen and can help close off the straits.
A suggestion: add Ukrainian as a language on the blog. Killer idea π‘ – if nothing else (below), you can insert text in Ukrainian and have it automatically translated into sv and en. So you can paste the original from FB and get it translated much better than FB’s lousy translation machine. Another thing: make the blog accessible to Ukrainian speakers with increased opportunities to receive input from there.
Sweden – the power grid
“The Swedish power grid has not been negatively affected by the fact that an increasing amount of our energy production comes from weather-dependent sources such as wind power, reports DN. The results come from a new report from the research company Energiforsk, owned by the industry organization EnergifΓΆretagen and Svenska kraftnΓ€t. – There is nothing in the data we have looked at that indicates that it has become less stable during this change in the past decade. Rather the opposite, says Mikael Odenberger, one of the researchers behind the report.”
https://omni.se/a/QMVn4Q
I like the idea because I have been thinking about it myself!
In the development version, I have included Ukrainian so I could also test it when I was coding the translation management. I thought just like you, that it could be fun if Ukrainians could come here.
A direct translation to more languages would also not be a problem.
However, it is difficult to get translations of mixed content, so we are not translating anything in the original posts themselves right now, but only doing a direct translation to English.
It seems almost impossible to get OpenAI to do it right when there are mixed languages in the same content.
When creating a post in Swedish, I have to include clear instructions that it should be translated from Swedish to English AND that any existing English or other languages in the text should NOT be translated.
If I am not clear about that, it translates the Swedish to English (as it should) but then translates the English to Swedish. So, whoever reads the post in English will get the Swedish translated into English, but the English translated into Swedish.
I have to check which language is active on the page and include it as a parameter, and then also specify which language it should be translated to and instruct it to leave out what is not in the original language.
Looking at the English page, you can see that it is still hallucinating at times.
I don’t know how many hours I had to spend on tests with different instructions before it became somewhat OK.
So, letting AI meddle in the original and translate, for example, Ukrainian or English to Swedish might be achievable, but there is a risk that it won’t turn out well or that multiple rounds are needed where it first has to identify the different languages used and separate the texts accordingly, and only then run the actual translation on each part and then put it back together into a coherent text. Without understanding any links and HTML code, etc., that are in the text.
At the same time, sometimes you don’t want to translate, for example, English. I did a survey asking about it and most people wanted to leave the original language.
But then we were talking about English, of course, when it comes to Ukrainian, I guess it is preferable to translate.
The problem still remains that AI must identify which languages the text consists of and then do it right when translating.
If you need to send the texts to AI twice, it doubles the costs (you pay for what you send and then for what you receive).
However, just adding another language and doing what we are doing now with English would work well. The only downside is that the costs for AI will double as well, of course.
Maybe I should set up a survey about this as well, if more people think Ukrainian would be good, and if we should also try to translate specifically Ukrainian to Swedish (and English) if it appears in Swedish or English texts.
Great idea – MXT runs on a Ukrainian site as well π
Should have a Russian one too actually so it spreads to Russia.
Yes!π However, you need to insert some disinformation now when Putin reads the report early in the morning (our time).
Sweden – the power grid
“The Swedish power grid has not been negatively affected by the fact that an increasing amount of our energy production comes from weather-dependent sources such as wind power, reports DN. The results come from a new report from the research company Energiforsk, owned by the industry organization EnergifΓΆretagen and Svenska kraftnΓ€t. – There is nothing in the data we have looked at that indicates that it has become less stable during this change in the past decade. On the contrary, says Mikael Odenberger, one of the researchers behind the report.”
https://omni.se/a/QMVn4Q
So good.
Then we hope that the report ages well and doesn’t become “we were naive” or “we didn’t see it coming” if we encounter problems this winter.
Well, almost everyone has said the exact opposite so one becomes a bit doubtful that they have come to that result. Let’s see if there will be more reports supporting it.
Reading a bit, it seems that wind turbines nowadays are equipped with various technologies that work for voltage stabilization, but then there are also different solutions in the grid that make it less sensitive, such as smarter control, etc.
It seems that the problems can be avoided if one ensures to apply various support measures and that the risks have been exaggerated.
Or it could simply be something that the industry is aware of but has become a common truth as opponents of wind power constantly use it as an argument.
The risk of power shortage of course remains if the proportion of wind power increases too much, especially if at the same time there is not a good enough grid when you need to import or run Karlshamn.
It’s probably possible to program the wind turbines to have so-called synthetic inertia, but from what I understand, it slightly reduces the efficiency of the turbines because you need a small control reserve.
Most wind turbines are located in northern Sweden, where there is also hydroelectric power, so there are no other problems than nobody gets paid for producing when it’s windy.
Southern Sweden is also connected to the rest of Europe, and as long as the transfers are intact, there is no major risk of power shortage. The demand is regulated so that when the wind calms down in Germany, the price rises so no one can afford to consume, thus reducing the demand.
I have noticed that my electricity bill has become slightly more expensive in the last ten years. But of course, there is no connection to costs for frequency regulation and uneven production capacity, it must be due to something else. Thank you Mikael O for clarifying this!
Best regards,
another in the electricity class
Waaahahahaha – now we’re going to have a cold winter, the first one since all the reactors were shut down.
some risk that this report will age like a ripe avocado in August.
I probably should have waited until February before releasing this report π€£π€£
There was instability in the network that they had not seen any traces of.
Power shortage may still occur.
Have you seen in the entrails of any old pike to already know that we will have a harsh winter?
Was anyone on that other sh1t blog who seemed to know their stuff and claimed that we had a period of warmer winters that was now coming to an end.
I still think Portugal’s blackout was Russia so can’t blame it on energy research.
However, easier to short-circuit than our old energy production.
If Germany or the UK blackout, which has been very close – won’t it become a bit unstable then?
I think they should wait until February, let’s park this now and then we’ll come back and see who was right.
Or will they start stretching the definition of instability instead maybe
Weather
Now it’s Japan’s turn to break heat records.
“On Thursday, the highest temperature ever in Japan was recorded at 41.8 degrees, Reuters reports. Along with the record, the average temperatures for the month of July have risen for the third consecutive year. At the same time, it has been unusually dry with critically low rainfall. Concerns are rising that the country’s rice harvest will be affected, and today the government is expected to present measures to secure production.”
https://omni.se/a/MnVMrr
And in Hong Kong, it’s pouring rain.
“The amount of rain that fell in Hong Kong on Tuesday is the largest recorded since 1884, AFP reports. By 2 p.m. local time, 355.7 millimeters of rain had fallen. The downpours come after the highest rain warning has been issued four times within eight days.”
https://omni.se/a/zAqWjw
In Scotland, it’s blowing like crazy.
“Tens of thousands of households are without power in the UK after Storm Floris hit. Winds of over 40 meters per second have been recorded, and trains, flights, and ferries have been canceled on Monday, Independent writes. A gust of wind at 59 meters per second was recorded at the top of Cairn Gorm in the Scottish Highlands, according to data from the Met Office, as reported by The Guardian.”
https://omni.se/a/5E5P3K
Let’s hope Floris calms down before it reaches here.
First and foremost, for millennia, China has only had one ally, and that is China.
I perceive China and Russia as two vultures where the only thing they have in common is jealousy towards the West.
I don’t believe that either of these two “vultures” would hesitate for a second to stab the other in the back if the opportunity arose.
Right now, it’s as if the Russian “vulture” is gulping down a lot of JΓ€germeister before hitting the catwalk.
JΓ€germeister that the Chinese vulture has provided.
JΓ€germeister that in the future will likely prove to definitely not have been free for the now reckless and intoxicated Russian vulture.
If you bring out a world map, you will see that North and South Korea are like a small bulge of China.
North Korea has long had issues with its demographics.
Believe me, China has given its blessing for Kim to send his young men and military equipment to a war that, from China’s perspective, is taking place in another continent.
This will only weaken North Korea even faster.
For centuries, it has been a dream for China to take over the entire Korean Peninsula.
I don’t think there will be any talk of complete annexation, rather a form of Nepalese solution?
Back to Russia and China.
What China lacks is water, arable land, free ports facing the Pacific Ocean, and its own oil sources.
All of this is available in Taiwan but also in eastern Siberia, or should I say Northern Manchuria?
You can bet that China has already offered to repair any damage to ports and other infrastructure after the recent earthquake in the eastern part of Russia.
They have already practiced how to proceed in Africa to secure strategic assets.
So why not follow the same strategy in regions that historically belonged to them?
I myself am not so sure that Taiwan is primarily what China is after.
It is much more advantageous for China to take control of Eastern Siberia.
Not to mention how much easier it will be for the international community to accept this.
Below are some carefully chosen quotes from Sun Tzu that can provide some insight into how the Chinese think.
One that fits well for the West is probably this one:
Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.
Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
This one probably fits for a future North Korea and what is now called Eastern Siberia.
Or if China gets to decide, Manchuria.
In the art of war, it is best to take a country intact; to subdue and destroy it is not so good.
Well said, I agree with you.
I believe, like you, that China is not Russia’s friend in the long run. If they help Russia, it is probably only because it is most beneficial for the moment. Russia does not have many partners, so China sells to them at the highest price possible and at the same time pushes down the prices of the oil and other raw materials they import. They exploit the situation to their own advantage, not to be kind to Russia.
Tried to reply but on iPhone it locks up…
Well written and yes, there are indications – China changing names on their maps?
They did get a river access to the Pacific Ocean anyway.
Then they are trying to economically take over – somewhere
And in the Far East, there are swarms of Chinese on the Russian side, like a cockroach invasion.
I have studied the Chinese mind for a bit over 20 years and you are probably spot-on right in your thoughts.
*learned as in working with them.
The Chinese are fundamentally businessmen and have always been and will always be. Killing your customers is bad for your business, taking long-term control over them or not tolerating being pushed around is another matter.
I agree with you in your thinking, one should look at what benefits China the most in the long run.
Well written, and yes, China probably wants to primarily gain control over countries through trade. However, Taiwan is an exception, and it’s probably mostly about the idea that Taiwan is a part of China, trying to break free.
Regarding Russia, I think China is helping “just enough”, so that Russia is kept in check, but dependent on China. Xi gets to be the “master of puppets” while Putin struggles on the strings. I wonder what Mr. P really thinks about that?
π and to the tree below.
“A massive strike on Lozova, Kharkiv region, left 1 dead and 10 injured; a train station and transport sites were damaged. Missiles and 50 drones also hit Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Sumy regions. In Bilenke, Zaporizhzhia district, FPV drones injured two civilians.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lvnekgnt322c
A certain bridge should be taken down.
“Crimea is packed to the brim β hotel occupancy reaches 96β98%, tour operators report. The most popular destinations are Yalta and Alushta, accounting for over 60% of the total flow. Another 20% of tourists chose Feodosia and Koktebel, while the rest go to Sevastopol and Yevpatoria.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3lvnb6byt5s2d
That is totally crazy, I don’t understand?
Maybe they have had their journey sponsored by the state, like human shields.
Further preparations for ZAPAD 2025. “Germany deploys jets to Poland as ‘deterrent’ ahead of Russian-Belarusian military drills #Ukraine“
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lvnasfg5t52d
https://kyivindependent.com/germany-deploys-eurofighter-jets-to-poland-over-russian-belarusian-military-drills/
First – good.
Numero dois – then why if there is no threat?
The risk of something happening is small, but if it does happen, the consequences will be significant.
The vote above is unanimous so why waste gasoline on something like that?
Good that they have at least recognized the danger, even though they are mostly a symbolic number. It does have a deterrent effect, but should also be placed in the Baltic states.
DeepStateMap:
“The enemy occupied Popiv Yar and advanced near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Voskresenka and Poltavka.”
USA
Conservatives, a new vulnerable group in need of expanded protection!
Feels more like a way for Trump to be able to go after banks that are not conservative…
“The White House is preparing a law that could punish banks that are accused of discriminating against conservatives, writes the Wall Street Journal.
According to the draft of a presidential order, which the newspaper has seen, regulatory authorities are to investigate whether financial institutions may have denied customers for political reasons. If so, they could be fined or face other disciplinary measures.”
https://omni.se/banker-som-diskriminerar-konservativa-ska-kunna-straffas/a/73r9R9
This is not something new, the Swedish Tax Agency has been used for such purposes in Sweden before, for example.
Last night, drones hit the Tatsinskaya railway station in Russiaβs Rostov region β a key hub for moving troops, fuel, and equipment to the southern front, including occupied Donbas and Zaporizhzhia. Russia’s Defense Ministry claims dozens of drones were shot down in several regions.
“Trapped behind enemy lines with a wounded leg, a Ukrainian soldier had no way out, until his comrades sent him an electric bike by drone.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lvn6waimpp2e
Which brand was it?
π
“Russian propagandists: Russian submarines are much better than the US ones! No one can find them!”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lvn4rth4ck2q
“Ukraine to consider increasing percentage of reserved workers at enterprises operating in frontline and border areas β Presidentβs Office #Ukraine”
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1093330.html
“On Russian oil, India and China speak the same language to Trump”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-china-russian-oil-imports-us-tariffs-trump-sanctions-energy-sovereignty/articleshow/123111096.cms“
Trump?
They highlight that the EU buys Russian for tens of billions of EUR every year so why can’t they do it.
They do have a point, in a way.
It might be a tough nut to crack for Trump, as tariffs are set to increase, and then China further restricts the export of strategic metals and minerals that they have a monopoly on. I read somewhere, can’t remember where, that there may be delays in the delivery of F35 to Finland, as there is a shortage of Germanium, which comes from China.
Do they have some map with Chinese names on the areas in Russia they lost in the 19th century?
Now also a waterway to the Pacific Ocean in a deal.
Then they are probably trying to influence – somewhere?
and in the far east they are already everywhere for business, right?
yes – well written and from what I know about the Chinese, that’s exactly it π
They are also allowed to lie if it’s in business, okay.
China can only rise with our help – which we have provided so far
“Classified as a terrorist neo-Nazi group controlled from Russia
It is classified as a terrorist group by the EU and the leader controls the group from Russia. Several planned attacks have been thwarted by the police.
– The Base is a militant neo-Nazi guerrilla group that aims to overthrow the West through terror, says journalist Ali Winston.”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/terrorklassad-nynazistgrupp-styrs-fran-ryssland
“A Swedish man faces 12 years in prison for allegedly planning a terrorist attack against the Eurovision Song Contest 2020.
According to the prosecutor in Luxembourg, he was a member of the now terrorist-labeled neo-Nazi group The Base.
Now SVT can publish a leaked audio recording where The Base leader Rinaldo Nazzaro recruits the Swede to the group.”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/har-rekryteras-svensken-av-terrorledaren“
How do you do that, does anyone know?
“Russian gasoline prices hit record high amid Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, Russian media reports”
Ok, so now an attack against two.
What happened then during 2024 – February 2025 when there were 55 attacks or whatever it was?
“βοΈGovernor of Gagauzia in π²π©Moldova, Evghenia GuΘul, has been sentenced to seven years in prison for illegal campaign financing linked to the banned pro-π·πΊRussian βShorβ party during the 2023 election.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvnjq6n4j22n
A very loose line to balance on there, very loose.
Big thanks no1! Very interesting and world-leading analysis, as usual. Strange that you haven’t been signed by any editorial/gammel or new media. Have you had to decline many times for various reasons? π
Regarding sponsorship to show appreciation for your hard work! , substack probably takes a rude share of the funds deposited? If I Swish it, will the effect be 100% immediate?
Thank you for your efforts! You make a difference!
/D
Yes – Okay and Kamratposten have tried but I’m waiting for bigger fish π
Thank you for your kind words, always fun to read, and for the donation π
Good that you are waiting for the right fish/media before you are sold π
Can one guess that you prefer Swish support over Substack support? Since Swish is 1:1 – doesn’t take outrageous % commission?
A good question David π
I started writing on Substack when I left the other blog and those who wanted to read jumped over there.
Then MXT started the site after we discussed a bit, and the goal with it was a comment field, which I think we have succeeded with even though it is rarely Ukraine being discussed, but more often the environment, Trump, and Swedish domestic politics. Our cornerstone is to have a good tone, people can discuss what they are passionate about and not kick anyone out.
(except for the trolls below of course, who will have trouble with their login very soon π‘)
The Substack subscription is for my page on Substack, I spend time on it just like here through notes and responding to comments and posting my own besides the daily posts.
I want to be clear that the Swish on the site is through the company behind the site and is handled according to all regulations. We don’t want to end up like Ivar Arpi even though his beard is very nice πΆ
No preferences – all contributions are appreciated and received with gratitude, and we have a few options as mentioned above π
(after the mockery below, I start to wonder about what friends one has around here, at least three fewer π‘)
Thank you for response no1!
As a contributor who is keen on achieving the highest possible output/return, I wonder if it is most effective for you to stack subscriptions at 80 SEK per month compared to if I, for example, Swish 80 SEK per month?
My guess is that Swish money provides better return for me=you compared to substack money? π
Absolutely drive swish David – we thank you for that and MXT will also thank you eventually when he stops bullying me below π
Are you new here or have you been going full throttle for a while?
Good, wait for Lyckoslanten or Starlet, if you remember it, romantic for teenage girls.
Starlet would be perfect for Johan! π
Or My Horse, and the Watchtower π
Maybe it’s best that he starts his own magazine?
“My hobbyhorse ZAPAD 2025”
I myself think I should start writing for Soldier of Fortune.. π
https://youtu.be/AjIL2BemqBY?si=n82KZO_F4URTC-T4
Got to check the video but you did well π
Don’t think that you can’t get your accounts blocked π‘
Sweden will contribute 275 million dollars, equivalent to about 2.7 billion Swedish kronor, to a military support package for Ukraine. Together with Denmark and Norway, Sweden will finance a complete support package with American equipment.
Good, very good.
Or My Horse, and the Watchtower π
The Social Democrats’ Youth League, SSU, wants Sweden to leave NATO. “SSU has been right in its analysis from the beginning: it is no longer possible to trust the USA when Donald Trump is in the White House,” stated the newly elected chairman Moska Hassas to Expressen. When the Social Democrats changed their stance on NATO, SSU remained firm. They now aim to work towards Sweden leaving NATO, a decision that was made on Thursday. The Youth League would rather see a deepened defense cooperation within the EU.
https://omni.se/a/vgLWWB
Okay, they don’t want to be part of NATO because they think Trump is stupid. They would rather have cooperation with someone in a way that other countries do not want, except maybe Malta and Cyprus.
Young people usually don’t think about consequences, but this shooting star is 23 years old, time to grow up.
What analyses does Moska Hassas have on the war in Ukraine, upcoming war in the Baltics, global conflict, and all that which is important?
Make peace not war?
“Make Love Not War” classic text on the batik shirts of the 60s-70s.
It is usually said that consequential thinking comes after 25 at best. So one probably has to forgive her for this. But the discussion about starting a defense collaboration within the EU that can replace NATO is still on the agenda. That discussion will continue.
Well, she probably hasn’t thought that through. NATO consists of a few more countries than the USA, just leaving because they are part of it doesn’t seem very well thought out. If there had been a pure European equivalent, oh, then I could have understood, but the EU doesn’t have a corresponding defense cooperation today. Maybe it will end up that way eventually, but how did she think it would work until then?
If the SSU intended to push for the EU to become its own NATO, that would be one thing, but starting by wanting to leave NATO directly.
There are those who have succeeded with crazier thoughts (trump), so don’t count her out! Unfortunately, there are many who go in straight lines between A and B without the complexity!
I Googled Moska and she is 23 years old with parents from Afghanistan and has grown up in Orminge. I then conclude that her parents fled from Afghanistan and ended up in Sweden before she was born, but I do not know this for sure.
She, of all people, should have first-hand information on what it’s like to live in a country taken over by warlords and then invaded?
Moska has chosen to address the following issues – leaving NATO, Gaza, and welfare issues.
The single most important thing today is the war in Ukraine, even though there are other burning conflicts as well, but I can’t find anything from Moska on that.
It will not be important for the SSU to influence national politics until next fall.
We have to have some fun at her expense, right!
In Finnish, “moska” means = solid contamination
Can you contaminate SSU even more?
It’s damn easy to sit in safe Sweden and think this! Yet another useful idiot unknowingly working for Putin.
Well, she’s just jumping on the trend among immigrants in the West – especially those with roots in the Middle East – to be against Israel. But of course, she understands that the elites in the West always support vulnerable groups like the Palestinians in Israel. Even the Swedish government doesn’t think otherwise. Sad is just the beginning.
I always mix this up – Poland had better tanks and France had more tanks than Germany π
Underbart Johan π
βπ€£π€£
RU is right in the middle of southern Pokrovsk – doesn’t look fun at all
I answered you above David, just saw the comment now π
Good grade for the thread – it turned sour when Mosska Hasas wanted to take Sweden out of NATO but everyone stuck to the subject. I know at least one other thread where insults usually rain down for less.
By the way, I discovered that we are nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize π
When I sit and look at the electricity prices and the graph, you immediately get the feeling that where we are today, it’s the equivalent of four months of electricity consumption that needs to be solved, the rest of the year is like a breeze.
Hydropower and nuclear power weren’t so bad, the reservoirs were filled and released in late autumn and over the winter.
Anyone who wants to take us to new heights must crack that nut, and until they do, we always face a chaotic winter at worst.
Maybe we should expand hydropower significantly – it worked, right?
The Chinese have some spectacular dam construction going on, maybe we could do something similar?
We’ll have to sacrifice some reindeer grazing land π±
Right but also not quite. The pipes through which the force of the water would flow are still missing. But right, what is the big scandal is not being talked about – namely all the dams and hydroelectric power plants that were demolished in the entire elongated country of Sweden to restore a nature that has not existed for a hundred years, at least in many cases and even further back in many cases. That is stopped now in any case. Some power that disappeared there.
Bukele couldn’t handle it π€£π€£
He just changed the constitution so he can sit for a lifetime.
What have I been saying for a damn long time, what have I been saying – even posts about it π‘
https://www.svd.se/a/pPq7mj/kina-stryper-tillgangen-till-mineraler-for-forsvarssektorn
Energy labeling for refrigerator and freezer
Then the repairman came and condemned my 10-year-old refrigerator/freezer.
The refrigerant has leaked out, so if you see a hole in the ozone layer, it’s my fault. π¬
When I suggested maybe refilling with new refrigerant, I got a contemptuous look from the repairman.
I had to go and look at new refrigerators and freezers to see what has been developed during these ten years. My “old” fridge had a built-in soda stream and was connected to the water supply. I couldn’t find anything with a built-in soda stream, is it not modern anymore? Most of them also couldn’t be connected to the water supply, instead, you had to fill a container and then you could pour a glass from the outside without having to open the door, think of all the time saved by doing this instead of taking out a container of water from the fridge and pouring it.π
There were also refrigerators with a black glass panel that could be made transparent so that you could show your guests the inside of the fridge without opening the door. Development is really moving forward π₯³ Not having whipped up the bΓ©arnaise sauce but bought something ready-made is perhaps not what you want to show your guests.
My neighbor with a Tesla usually sneaks over for a beer now and then when he thinks his wife doesn’t see him, and of course, he always comes up with tricky questions about energy labeling, which usually ends up with just one beer. Now I thought I’d go for a refrigerator/freezer with energy class A. π
The problem is that I had a Side-by-Side with a volume of barely 700 liters and they don’t exist in that energy class. βΉ The most energy-efficient ones are in class D.
To achieve energy class A, it must be a small narrow refrigerator that holds half as much. So I have to buy a refrigerator and a freezer to achieve the same volume.
Both of these appliances in energy class A together consume more energy than a new Side-by-Side with energy class D. π
To top it all off, I have to remodel the entire kitchen to fit a new refrigerator/freezer in energy class A. How much energy does that take?
It seems like I’ll end up buying a Side-by-Side in energy class D since, after all, it is overall the most energy-efficient. I’ll just have to live with my Tesla neighbor’s reprimands.
but just one more beer for hen :). Two beers for hen who is positive.
I have a friend who is an electrician x4 and told me a similar story over 4 beers. You’re doing the right thing WR.
Russian losses in Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lvpf57xrjc2s