Now 165 people have voted on johanno1.se and are remarkably unanimous that nothing will happen during Zapad 25 and this page may well be considered to have quite high expertise in the subject of the Ukraine war?
One might then ask why Poland is burning fuel in a large military exercise and Germany is deploying frontline fighter jets?
”deterrent” – against what, nothing will happen according to the above vote?
I thought it was important not to provoke Russia or risk escalation, but apparently Poland and Germany no longer think so – are they warmongers?
The problem is that if Russia gets a feeling, what has been put forward as a deterrent is likely at best a speed bump right now.
Deterrent – dissuasive, and the word dissuasive suggests that one feels that this will really hurt and refrains from the planned crimes against humanity.
If there are not about thirty brigades in the Baltics within a month, nothing is dissuasive at all – instead, it is an invitation to genocide.
Then I seriously wonder why the aircraft are being deployed to Poland and not to the Baltics – it would be a deterrent and no one will attack Poland.
I know that NATO has a seasick theory about “tripwire” – composite brigade or battalion from different countries that are supposed to be “in the way” so that Russia does not dare to attack.
There are a couple of different units in the Baltics and then they drag their feet more than necessary with the European brigade for Lithuania but the command structure is probably in place now at least.
Where do you think the tripwire is located in Estonia – well, up in the NW where Russia won’t attack 😀
And in Latvia, it is all the way over by the coast so the vast area to the east is probably largely undefended except for a bunch of environmental activists running around ensuring that no fortifications are built in the nature reserves bordering the Russian border.
Reuters describes the purpose as follows –
“Since 2017, NATO has rotated three battlegroups through the region with a total of about 3,000 troops, provided by Germany, Britain and Canada. The deployment of 1,000 soldiers in each Baltic state was designed as a deterrent to slow any attack”.
It will be quite interesting to see if they dare to regroup to eastern Baltics during Zapad 25, more specifically SE Estonia and NE Latvia. To go on the defensive a few kilometers towards the border, mine for close defense, and wait.
During Russian Easter, at least Sweden thought that our deterrent or “threshold effect” was needed ON Gotland and not FROM the mainland where one would then have sat and watched Gotland through a cheap pair of binoculars.
A deterrent only works if it is reasonably in the way, and the word “tripwire” is difficult to interpret in any other way.
If we now wildly speculate again – if these tripwires are located in their base areas very far from expected entry points for Russian units intending to take their miles of Estonian potato fields and then go on the defensive.
Has the tripwire then achieved its purpose?
We have a job description for these international units that is in no way reflected in the areas they choose to camp in.
Like that Dutch battalion in Srebrenica that interpreted their peacekeeping task as running away from threats, not protecting civilians from threats – they preserved their own peace at a very high price for others.
Or a bit like our Swedish units instead of fortifying Gotland with weapons and violence would have chosen to act as a deterrent from Kalmar through a very long tripwire that the Russians would completely have missed if it existed.
That being said – air and LV are early capabilities to regroup, so it is likely that this is a multi-stage rocket and that we have now seen the first step.
But…
If one intends to act as a deterrent, it is also best done behind extensive field works and mining – such things take time and have not been started.
Now it may have to be approved by the respective countries’ environmental agencies first before digging can begin in the nature reserves, but the process should have been started.
If NATO is now a defense alliance, doesn’t it require showing intent to defend something for the concept itself to be credible?
I may be old, cynical, and bitter (but not as old as the aged traitor chirping on that other blog) – so far, I believe that there is a high risk that the tripwires in the Baltics urgently reinterpret their job description like the Dutch did in Srebrenica in case of a conflict.
The 2025 Baltic refugees will then be the tripwires in the floating devices they managed to get hold of at short notice.
There is a dispute between India and the USA now, which I am highly suspicious of because India is one of our few allies in the region and China despises them.
Trump has a nearly unique ability to start quarrels with allies and completely leave our enemies alone, look at who got trade deals early 🧐
Canada’s Carney has discovered how reality works and Kier Starmer’s Labour has really come out strong with thought crime and blasphemy laws in the UK, but there are also something called friends and enemies that even the USA needs.
And that Russia and China are magnitudes worse than what Starmer is up to because he doesn’t throw people off balconies, yet…
Having a leadership position comes with certain sacrifices, but yes, the likelihood that the Krasnov story is true is quite high at this point.
India is not the class’s best child at all, and we haven’t even discussed the caste system that in no way considers everyone’s equal value but instead legislates on it, but they are in a rapidly decreasing number of countries that stand on our side in an upcoming global conflict and also a large country, so a friend we want to have.
But India did not lie down immediately – “why can’t we buy Russian oil when the EU bought goods from Russia for over 60 billion euros in 2024?”
Which is fully supported by this –
That was more money than we supported Ukraine with in 2024, the EU is completely hopeless 😭
China also told Trump to go to hell and stood there grinning at him like only a Chinese can, you don’t know if it’s laughter, tears, joy, or anguish – completely impossible to read the facial expression.
At least Anne Appelbaum has read my texts now, good 👍
And here is a good text, they probably did copy-paste on johanno1.se to save time. (stolen from the comment section at johanno1.se)
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/03/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010
We see early signs that something has happened – two refineries and an oil depot in Sochi have been droned to atoms in recent days and then this 😶
There is a chance that Trump has called Putin and informed him that the leash he holds Ukraine on has started to crack at the seams and that the dog is completely out of control.
However, I am starting to feel more and more that Ukraine is its own worst enemy – by effectively stopping Russia, they have kept the problem far enough away from Europe that we could continue to sleep.
Our beauty sleep is guaranteed by Ukrainian small children who are tortured, raped, and murdered, and we still sleep well.
Now one is not supposed to think like this, but sometimes I test-run my dictatorship brain cells, and it’s hard to escape the thought that an attack on the Baltics would be very beneficial for Ukraine.
How can the EU half-sleep through this when they know what Russia is currently doing inside the EU, plus a million unemployed Ukrainian soldiers taking what they want in Europe after the war, and finally, if Russia, God forbid, were to succeed in reincorporating Ukraine into the dictatorship and stealing all their tech, one wonders how the analyses have really gone.
Throughout the entire war, Ukraine has promised to take the full blow if only they were given the weapons to make the EU safe.
They have repeatedly warned us of the potential consequences countless times.
Most recently, Budanov, who is hard to misunderstand.
It’s hard to see anything other than Europe needing a good kick in the back of the head to wake up.
We need to wake up before it’s too late because the last time we played war, we were overrun within months, all of Europe except for one country because they had a prime minister who wasn’t a coward.
That time, admittedly, by Germans who are infinitely more troublesome than Russians when they get going, but the German army had no more personnel, aircraft, tanks, or artillery than the opponents overall, quite the opposite.
Poland had a lot of tanks, a lot of anti-tank weapons, aircraft, 5000 artillery pieces, a million soldiers, and they were in defense, positioned behind rivers and minefields. Poland was well aware of the German threat, and even though German subversive activities were massive, their war preparations worked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanks_of_the_Polish_Armoured_Forces
It was “boldly ventured, half won” by the Germans, wavering morale, lack of leadership, and living in yesterday’s wars that lost the war for us – and a very determined enemy against a highly indecisive alliance. Germany jumped on one country at a time, crushed them, regrouped, and then moved on to the next.
Not escalating, just defending, not plunging the world into war, and hoping for peace led us to the Second World War and six years of indescribable hardships.
Imagine telling your family in Warsaw in 1939, “yes, the situation for us Jews is not great, but it will get better, I promise, let’s wait and see for a while.”
A lot of this we see today, for example, Macron is completely preoccupied with quarreling with his wife now, and Kier Starmer is unpopular everywhere, especially within his own Labour party.
No shortage of warnings, Johannes No.3 was a well-known blogger at the time that no one listened to, for example.
Not many really cared about Poland’s fate post-WW2, but in 1918, they became an independent country after a rather long stretch of very dull history, and they thoroughly whipped the Bolsheviks until 1921, so they deserved their freedom – winning many battles that absolutely no one knows about.
In 1939, they were overrun, and no one helped them when Germany and the Soviet Union attacked from opposite directions – does that sound familiar?
During WW2, Poland was one of the countries Germany wreaked the most havoc in, and post-WW2, the US handed Poland over to the Soviet Union despite Churchill’s wild protests when he happened to be sober.
In 1993, they became free again, and today they are actually on the top 15 list of countries with the best GDP – a real powerhouse.
Did you know that Poland’s war preparations assumed that the war would start in 1942 and never that the Soviet Union would stab them in the back.
A bit like everyone now saying that Russia won’t be able to attack until 2027 at the earliest 🧐
Colonel Tadeusz Kobylański, who analyzed that the Soviet Union was not a threat, has been suspected of working for the third power, by the way, but it’s speculative.
How many analysts and military personnel around Europe do you think are working for Russia today?
Are they immune to the offer that their spouse will be able to give lectures in an empty meeting room once a month and invoice a million to a media company in the EU that pays within a week every time?
Especially when the counteroffer was to accidentally release the video of when you got a bit too drunk from your spiked drink on the last business trip, and the very friendly woman who happened to stumble into you and was immediately very interested in you and your job turned out to be only 14 years old when she held up her ID to the mirror after you fell asleep.
Or a man depending on the gender identity of the military. By the way, do you think GRU prepares for all different genders before figuring out the preferences or gender identity of their targets because it’s not always very clear, and the safest way to fail with a honeytrap is to misgender someone, I think, then the defenses come up immediately?
(did you know, by the way, that today’s young adults are not the least bit interested in one-night stands, bar pickups, casual relationships, and all that. They want long serious relationships, and the dating sites are bleeding – GRU nightmare)
Ukraine has done something we very rarely see, and partly it’s because Russia is absolute amateurs, but time is not on Ukraine’s side.
The Baltics are probably dangerously close to experiencing a Poland here, actually, if we don’t sharpen up, and I’m not talking about a battalion hiding in the westernmost part of Estonia and starting to look for boats to get to Gotland with.
The US is starting to understand that they need Ukraine – they need their technology and their expertise because they are hopelessly behind, especially compared to China.
Europe doesn’t seem to have understood this yet, and I am in absolute septic shock that by the year 2025, we still haven’t hired every available Ukrainian veteran to train us in Europe.
At least Magyar got to attend some meeting in Europe, but we didn’t like hearing, “I can completely paralyze you with my drone battalion in a week, all your very expensive weapons will burn.”
For this to end well, we need Ukraine, period – some of us realized this as early as 2022 and have been writing it since then, so it’s strange that the penny hasn’t dropped by 2025.
We at least had a small earthquake here, and then I watched that series about the drug trade on Netflix, and one of the routes goes to Puerto Rico.
Not very difficult to guess that my Italian employers, who are going to start exporting directly to the US from this export port I’m building, have planned to slightly adjust that route 😀
Can you put on your CV that you’re building infrastructure for the cartels, or is it not as manly as I think?
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 makes you healthier too 👍
Continued appreciation for the page johanno1.se is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.
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https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
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ADS
As you have probably noticed, we now have ads on the site. The ads and their placement are managed by Google, which also tries to optimize it automatically. We will let it run for a few weeks to see where it ends up. Some placements feel quite large, but it might get better.
We will then post a survey to hear what you think, if there are too many ads, if there are certain placements that are particularly annoying, etc. so we can make any adjustments after that.
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-08-06
SLAVA UKRAINI
I hope Trump doesn’t see this, there’s a risk he’ll throw Ukraine completely under the bus.
“❗️Zelensky is twice as popular as Trump among Americans, The Telegraph reports, citing a poll.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvpipj6lts2p
🇺🇸 Trump Gave Putin Leverage by Suspending Sanctions,— WP
A new report prepared by Democrats in the US Senate and published on Tuesday claims that the administration of President Donald Trump has eased pressure on Russia by not updating the Biden-era sanctions regime.
According to the authors, this has given Russia time to restore its military potential and prolong the war in Ukraine. The report also claims that Trump has not imposed a single new package of sanctions on Russia in the first six months of his presidency.
“‼️⚠️ The enemy has struck Odesa region! A large-scale fire broke out in the Izmail district as a result of a UAV attack. A gas/oil pipeline was damaged. The fire is visible even from the Romanian side of the border.”
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3lvoshkr5m22b
💥🔥👍
“❗️At night, UAVs attacked 🇷🇺Russian regions again At least 10 explosions were heard in Bryansk during the night. According to local information, after several explosions, black smoke began to rise in the area of the oil depot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvpijeyoc22p
“En brand bröt ut nära oljedepån i Bryansk efter en drönarattack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lvpl4zqkl22f
💥🔥👍
“💥 Russia: Ukraine struck infrastructure at the Tatsinskaya railway station in Rostov region for the 2nd night in a row. The rail hub is used for military logistics including transport for the nearby oil depot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3lvpbkw7jl22y
“Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Russians are adding approximately 9,000 troops per month: 1/ By comparing that figure to Russia’s recruitment numbers and assessing the surplus, one can roughly estimate their monthly casualty rate
Their recruitment, at least until January 2025, was about 30,000 per month. If you subtract 9 from 30, you get 21,000. With a 1:1.5 KIA-to-WIA, that would give you 8,400 KIA and 12,600 WIA per month. Multiply 8,400 by 7, and you get nearly 60,000 KIA between January and July.
This is not a precise or fully reliable method of calculation, but it does offer a rough estimate of net attrition. The validity of such an estimate depends on the assumption that both Russian and Ukrainian figures in statements are accurate, or reasonably close to real ones”
https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social/post/3lvp6b3pm522a
“❗️The 🇷🇺Russian Gerbera UAV, which violated 🇱🇹Lithuanian airspace last week, flew over the country’s capital and crashed on the territory of a Lithuanian army military training ground, was armed with 2 kg of explosives, the country’s Prosecutor General’s Office reported.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvpjvog4rc2p
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian economy has become a so-called war economy. Around 30 percent of the budget is allocated to resources for warfare, which means that many other things have to be cut. In addition, it drives up inflation, says Torbjörn Becker, head of the Institute for Eastern Economic Studies, to SVT News.
Sanctions from the West have not sufficiently prevented income to Russia, which mainly comes from the export of oil and gas.
Becker believes that it will take some time before Russia runs out of money, despite the fact that the welfare fund is running low. The biggest threat is in the financial sector, he states.
“The risk of a crisis in the Russian financial system has increased.”
What do you think?
Will Putin play Witkoff and Trump in the stands with empty promises that give him even more time?
“US special envoy Steve Witkoff has landed in Moscow for talks with the Russian leadership, Reuters writes. The plane landed early on Wednesday morning.
Russia now has only two days to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine before Donald Trump’s promised sanctions take effect. A source tells the Financial Times that everything depends on how the meeting in Moscow goes.
– It depends on what Witkoff comes back with. If Witkoff returns empty-handed, without anything at all, Trump will completely lose it, says the source.”
https://omni.se/witkoff-framme-i-moskva-for-mote-med-statsledningen/a/VzER81
“Trump on the possibility of 100% tariffs for all countries buying Russian energy:
“I’ve never named a percentage, but we’ll be doing quite a lot of this. We’ll see what happens. Yes, they have a meeting tomorrow, we have a meeting with Russia. We’ll see what happens, and then make a decision.””
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lvpna3e4222e
Can one begin to suspect?:
Yes, it will be the stands.
It must be finished and concluded now from Putin’s side. He must come up with something substantial now. If Witkoff is tough, he just sits silently at the meeting. The ball is in Putin’s court.
Witkoff returns with big promises, flattery, and expensive gifts to Trump, and a thicker wallet. Russia halts the air strikes for a couple of days, then blames Ukraine for attacks, and then launches a major attack.
Trump first praises Putin and thanks him for his cooperation. After the renewed attacks, Trump first blames Ukraine, then sours on Putin again, and sets a new deadline.
I hope I am wrong
Time to close the survey about ZAPAD 2025, when ZAPAD is over we can always go back and see what the outcome was.
Most people believe that there will only be some minor provocations even though quite a few also believe that there will be a challenge to NATO.
If we combine the three less alarming alternatives, they have a total of 120 votes, while the two worse scenarios together have 47 votes.
In a couple of months, we will know the answer.
I have posted a new survey regarding Trump’s deadline on Friday.
If you want to see the results of previous surveys, here is the link to the archive:
https://johanno1.se/sv/pollsarchive/
Chose, extended deadline, but when Putin is portrayed as wanting peace, I didn’t press the vote button. It might have been a sarcastically posed question, but it feels a bit unclear.
Ah, good that you pointed it out, now I see that the irony doesn’t really come across and that it can be misinterpreted.
Of course, I meant that he only claims to want peace in order to gain time.
I have changed the wording, thanks for pointing it out!
“❗️A 🇺🇦Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet using an 🇺🇸American GBU-62 guided bomb destroys a 🇷🇺Russian company command post”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvpnnzckdk2p
“Air defenses neutralized 36 out of 45 drones launched at Ukraine overnight. There were strikes at three locations, with debris falling at another site.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lvpndkfnvs2e
“Ukraine and the US are preparing three joint mineral extraction projects, aiming to launch them within 18 months. Ukrainian PM Svyrydenko and US Treasury Secretary Bessent also discussed expanding the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, including investments in defense.”
“A resident of Kazakhstan condemns Russia and Putin for starting the war against #Ukraine and expresses support for the Ukrainian people. Thank you for your wishes for peace and your support!”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lvpm3j5izk2e
US Economy
“Companies across the industrial spectrum are being squeezed by Donald Trump’s tariffs, reports Reuters. Tuesday’s flood of reports showed, for example, that major companies like Caterpillar and Marriott are seeing weaker demand and higher costs.
So far, global companies have missed out on $15 billion in profits by 2025, according to Reuters’ compilation.
And the effects of the tariffs are only just beginning, according to Interactive Brokers chief analyst Steve Sosnick.”
https://omni.se/foretag-pressas-av-tullarna-har-bara-sett-borjan/a/o30Rpg
—
“Wall Street lost momentum after weak service sector data and new tariff threats, S&P 500 index falls 0.1 percent
The US services sector purchasing managers’ index, according to ISM, came in lower than expected in July, which weighed on sentiment. The services index decreased to 50.1 from 50.8 the previous month. Analysts’ expectations were at 51.5.”
https://www.swedbank-aktiellt.se/telegram/aJzUM095
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
“We’re deeply grateful to the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark for their strong and timely support to boost Ukraine’s air defense and support other critical defense needs through the purchase of American weapons.
This comes at a critical time, as Russia steps up its missile and drone attacks. And it sends a clear signal of unity and resolve. A €500 million package from the Netherlands, including U.S.-made Patriot missiles, and another $500 million from our Nordic partners through a NATO-coordinated initiative will help protect lives in Ukraine and across Europe.
Because this support isn’t just about the battlefield. It’s a serious investment in long-term peace and a stronger, safer Europe. We also value the role of our Nordic partners in developing joint defense production and strengthening Ukraine’s own defense industry.
Together, we’re making sure Russia cannot turn Europe into a continent of war. Peace will prevail because we’re standing together.”
https://x.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1952990975791333558
Off-Topic, USA
“The US Department of Health is withdrawing $500 million in research funding for vaccine development, reports AP. Health Minister Robert F Kennedy Jr states that it concerns 22 projects related to so-called mRNA vaccines.
The reason is that they instead want to focus on “safer, broader vaccine strategies”.
The decision is criticized by Mike Osterholm, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Minnesota.
– I don’t think I’ve seen a more dangerous decision in public health during my 50 years in the field, he says.”
https://omni.se/vaccinstod-pa-500-miljoner-dras-in-i-usa-farligt/a/W0rb0L
USA – Trump
“Donald Trump has a plan to shift focus from the investigation of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reports New York Times.
Now, the president instead wants to bring a potential indictment against Democratic politicians whom he claims have persecuted him.
Attorney General Pam Bondi is said to have authorized a prosecutor to investigate the officials who examined Trump’s connections to Russia during his 2016 presidential campaign, according to several sources to New York Times. The goal is for an investigation to be presented to a jury in Florida to see if charges can be brought.
But what crimes the officials are alleged to have committed and whether it can even lead to an indictment is unclear.”
https://omni.se/trumps-plan-skifta-fokus-fran-epstein-kritiken/a/732039
Gripen?
“The Spanish Air Force shelves its plans to purchase Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fighter jets. Sources tell El País.
The decision is motivated by the fact that the price tag for the American aircraft would be too high considering Spain’s plans for 85 percent of the country’s increased defense spending to go to European suppliers.
Spain’s defense is undergoing an upgrade with the aim of reaching NATO’s previous target of 2 percent of GDP for defense spending. The country has previously fallen out of favor with US President Donald Trump because Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has refused to agree to NATO’s new target of 5 percent of GDP.”
https://omni.se/spanien-skrotar-planer-pa-att-kopa-f-35/a/RzWRqJ
I rather think it will be a half-hearted effort, the Spaniards don’t seem to be engaged in Europe’s defense.
I think the Spaniards feel quite safe in their corner of Europe. Besides, Spain has had quite close relations with China lately, and that can have an impact.
💥🔥👍
“🔥 Bolshoe Polpino, Bryansk region! ❗️Strike on workshop of the OJSC Bryansk Plant of Metal Structures and Technological Equipment.”
USA
It’s crazy that they’re thinking of creating new districts to gain a political advantage through more parliamentary seats, and crazy that the solution to try to prevent it is to flee to another state.
There IS something wrong with the USA! 😀
“Texas Governor Greg Abbott has filed a lawsuit against the Democrats’ state chairman, Gene Wu, for leaving Texas. This is reported by NBC News.
Wu and several other Democrats left the state to prevent a vote on new electoral districts in Texas, something that could give the Republicans five additional parliamentary seats after the 2026 midterm elections.”
https://omni.se/kartbraket-vaxer-stammer-demokraternas-ordforande/a/EyGWEo
It is also wrong when politicians obstruct democratic votes.
If changing electoral districts is justified, I have no idea.
Trump Approval Ratings
Trump rises by 0.4 points and goes back up to -14% (from -15 last week), which is where he was during his previous presidential term.
This survey from Gallup was a bit interesting.
The area where Republicans are least satisfied with Trump is also the area where Democrats are most satisfied. Of course, it doesn’t indicate why they are satisfied/dissatisfied.
Interesting also to see what independents think.
Their equivalent of the Approval Rating summary looks like this, 37% are positive:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/692879/independents-drive-trump-approval-second-term-low.aspx
Sweden’s economy
“Sweden’s GDP is forecasted to land at 0.7 percent this year, according to the National Institute of Economic Research in its forecast update for August. This is a downward revision of 0.2 percent compared to the latest forecast from June.
Thus, the authority predicts that GDP growth will decline by 0.3 percent compared to last year. However, a significant growth spurt is expected for 2026 with a GDP of 2.6 percent. The institute points to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs as one of the reasons for the revision.
“Together with a subdued global economic outlook, the tariffs mean that the Swedish export market is growing slowly this year and next year,” the press release states.”
https://omni.se/ki-skruvar-ner-bnp-prognos-pekar-pa-usa-s-tullar/a/4B2q8V
It doesn’t add up!
“Sweden’s GDP is predicted to land at 0.7 percent this year”
And
“Thus, the authority predicts that GDP growth will decline by 0.3 percent compared to last year.”
How do you mean?
GDP growth was about 1 percent last year?
OK! I probably read a bit carelessly. So, we are literally talking about the GDP growth. But if we want to be correct. So, the growth rate decreased by 30 percent in that case. Alternatively, by 0.3 percentage points.
It gets a bit messy when talking about the growth rate slowing down.
Decreasing, or coming to a halt, would have been better word choices.
It’s now been over a year since entering Russia, and even though forced to retreat, they still hold on in two places, each a few square kilometers.
“🔼 Zelensky: For more than a year, Ukraine has been conducting active operations on Russian territory – in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Kursk operation was truly special. Thank you to everyone who prevented another full-scale Russian attack on our Sumy and Kharkiv regions.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lvpqnjod2225
DeepStateMap:
https://deepstatemap.live/#12/51.3132843/34.2810595
https://deepstatemap.live/#12/51.0755194/35.1933815
“The sixth of August is a significant date in the military history of our country. On this day in 2024, the Ukrainian Defence Forces launched the Kursk Offensive, which for the first time brought full-scale war to the territory of the aggressor country.
It was a decisive and bold step in response to the enemy’s preparations for a new offensive campaign in northern Slobozhanshchyna. We did not wait for the blow – we struck it ourselves. We proved that Ukraine is capable not only of defending itself, but also of taking proactive and effective action.
After careful planning of the operation, our units were able to break through enemy defences, penetrate deep into the enemy’s rear and disrupt its logistics. At the peak of the operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine controlled up to 1,300 km² of territory in the Kursk region.
We demoralised the Russian personnel and forced them to transfer significant reserves to Kursk, weakening the pressure on other fronts.
At that time, we prevented the enemy from implementing their offensive plans and formed a buffer zone, thanks to which Sumy and Kharkiv remain on free Ukrainian soil.
During the year, the Defence Forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy in the area of responsibility of the Kursk military group. The Russian army lost a total of more than 77,000 servicemen killed and wounded (including about 4,000 citizens of the DPRK). A total of 7,236 pieces of Russian weapons and military equipment were destroyed or damaged, including 211 tanks, 1,083 armoured vehicles, 907 artillery systems, 1 aircraft, 3 helicopters, 15 air defence systems, and 2,795 vehicles.
The Kursk operation also had an invaluable humanitarian outcome: 1,018 captured Russian servicemen were added to the exchange fund, which has already allowed us to return hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers home, including those who had been in captivity since 2022.
In fact, the enemy was able to regain lost positions and areas only after bringing in North Korean troops, significantly increasing its forces, and shifting the main intensity of guided bomb use to the Kursk region.
The offensive operation in Kursk achieved most of the objectives set by the state’s top leadership.
The scale of enemy losses, the effectiveness of our asymmetric actions in the offensive, and our strict adherence to international humanitarian law on Russian territory were recognised by the world and became a source of invaluable experience for both Ukrainian troops and foreign allies.
This operation is further confirmation that the Ukrainian military has strategic thinking, strength and will.
On behalf of the command, I sincerely thank all the soldiers who took and are taking part in our campaign in Kursk. Your professionalism, courage, resilience and dedication give strength to the whole of Ukraine.
I bow my head in memory of our brothers who gave their lives for Ukraine during the Kursk operation. We continue to fight, keeping in mind those who did not return but remain with us – in our cause, in our Victory.
As of today, Ukrainian troops maintain a presence in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region, holding back part of the Russian offensive group.
Just like a year ago, we are taking action. We are fighting the enemy and holding the line to preserve Ukraine and achieve a just peace.
Glory to Ukrainian soldiers!
Glory to Ukraine!” – Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / CinC AF of Ukraine General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
👍
Most sectors are down except for Pokrovsk where it is up, but not considering the others so the total is down.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 13💥↘️
S Slobozhansky 5↘️
Kupyansk 7
Lyman 23💥↘️
Siverskyi 3↘️
Kramatorsk 2
Toretsk 8
Pokrovsk 52💥💥↗️
Novopavlivka 16💥
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 1↘️
Areas of the settlement of Pokrovsk, Popiv Yar, Volodymyrivka, Boikivka, Suvorove, Kotlyne, Novoekonomichne, Muravka, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Dachne, Promin, Molodetsk, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoukrainka, Oleksiivka, and Novopavlivka.
Near the settlements of Olgivka, Novyi Mir, Hluschenkove, Torske, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Kolodyazi, and in the direction of Chernechchyna, Serednie, and Shandryholove.
The enemy carried out 18 air strikes, dropping a total of 35 guided aerial bombs and firing 353 artillery shells, including 16 from multiple launch rocket systems.
Areas of the settlements of Piddubne, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, Zelenyi Hai, Zelenyi Pole, Novodarivka and in the direction of Ivanivka, Novoivanivka.
👍
“❗️En rysk soldat fotograferar följderna av attacker mot 🇷🇺ryska positioner i riktning mot Cherson: “Detta är bränderna efter attackerna. Allt i skogen brinner där. Våra pojkar brinner.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvptify6hk2b“
I would like to see the original video but this one is good enough.
Proof that the MAGA nuts don’t think beyond their noses, can’t see connections, don’t understand reality.
https://youtu.be/IbWWYKbOX0U?si=1bTQs7D0GTTGv-2T
🎥Zelenskyi with soldiers near the frontline. 🇺🇦💪
You will never see putin do this.
https://x.com/ladyjaujau/status/1952437269438324912?s=46
“Ukrainian defence forces continue to hold back Russian occupiers around the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration. For over a year, the enemy has been trying in vain to drive our troops out of this area.
At the same time, some sources are spreading information about the alleged encirclement of our units in Pokrovsk. This is completely untrue.
Currently, the enemy is conducting offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk, attempting to cut off the logistics of Ukrainian troops. However, despite significant efforts and continuous assaults, the enemy has not been successful. Russian soldiers are only finding death around Pokrovsk.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has taken appropriate measures to strengthen the stability of our defence in this direction.
The struggle continues. Glory to Ukraine!”
https://x.com/generalstaffua/status/1952818829404586249?s=46
Putin looks very happy, he probably doesn’t expect any problems.
“Talks between the US and Russia have begun: Putin is currently meeting with Witkoff in the Kremlin, according to Russian media, which has published footage of the meeting.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lvpv76g6kk25
China seems to want to make it appear as if significant progress has been made…
“Kina verkar vilja få det att framstå som att man gjort stora framsteg…
“China has declared a critical moment in the resolution of Russia’s war against Ukraine. “Russia and Ukraine have already begun negotiations, taking an important step forward. The current process of resolving the crisis has reached a critical juncture.” – the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lvq4ijxr2s2a
“Poland detains 32 people suspected of working with Russian intelligence to commit arson and sabotage acts, PM Donald Tusk confirms”
https://theins.ru/en/news/283600
Another one going down to a four-day workweek.
“❗️The largest cement producer in 🇷🇺Russia «Tsemros», is switching to a 4-day work week. The reason is a record drop in demand in the domestic market and an increase in the share of imported cement. Earlier, leading Russian automakers switched to a shortened schedule.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lvq43aqpbs2l
✍️ My Own/Lewi
—-
“HOW DO YOU SEE THAT THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE? JUST GIVE IT A LITTLE TIME.”
The Ukrainian security service stole massive amounts of data from, among other things, the Russian Central Bank recently.
– Then they deleted the whole thing and nothing, really nothing works anymore.
The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiulina, it turned out, in the stolen data sets, had given orders to print more banknotes. Lots of new rubles.
To be precise, about $207,176,382.72 in U.S dollar
That corresponds to about 37% of the Russian economy!
The conclusion is that the money in that belligerent, Slavic terrorist state is running out.
If you print new money, you get inflation like a letter in the mail. Inevitably.
How come MFR, Mother Fucking Russia, is on its way down to the basement?
First of all, they thought the offensive war would last a week at most.
– The Putin bastard thought that Western Europe would collapse before the war.
The Putin bastard also assumed that NATO would collapse. It turned out the other way around.
And so on, and so on.
The sanctions have collapsed Gazprom, which was Putin bastard’s biggest cash cow. Now Gazprom is making stinging losses. A toy manufacturer is showing better figures to give an example. Gazprom’s data network is in shambles. Total chaos is just the first name.
Russia is far too big a country. 11 time zones. This means that you have to be able to fly to do business or conduct military maneuvers, etc.
That’s why the Ukrainian security service carried out a cyberattack on Aeroflot, the largest Russian airline that is state-owned.
– They stole at least 100 TB of data! Then they erased the mess for the imperialist slaves!
That’s why domestic flights no longer work. It’s total chaos! It will take years to get back on track! In the meantime, not much will work.
– It turned out that the computer programs were from the mid-1980s!
The breach is a terrible loss for Ivan.
In these huge amounts of data, it is clearly stated where the Russians have sent the stolen Ukrainian children!
20,000 of them. Russia represents nothing but pure evil.
How could anyone predict that the Russian economy is in such a terrible state?
Look where the gold is going.
Russia is currently selling off its gold reserves at a furious pace! They are paying the Chinese for their “help” in their offensive war with pure GOLD.
The Russians will soon be completely out of resources and will sell off everything they have.
Despite the war, which is eating trucks with a good appetite, Russian domestic sales of Kamaz trucks have dropped by a whopping 60%!
That is why they are cutting back heavily on the workforce.
The same applies to other vehicle manufacturers.
Russia is going to hell. Thank God!
Furthermore. Despite its evil, infernal offensive war that should increase steel sales significantly, profits for, for example, Russia Sverstal and MMK are decreasing by -55% and -89% respectively!
All signs indicate that the terrorists are going to hell. And I am enjoying the news immensely.
Russia must be crushed or collapsed for the shitty country to have a chance to develop positively and become normal. And thus peaceful.
Every fifth ruble is now going to the military that is going to crush Ukraine. Without succeeding.
The Putin bastard is just entering the finale that in the 1990s led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Add to this the fact that 90 of the 100 US senators support secondary sanctions against countries, read India and China, that continue to buy Russian oil and gas.
Furthermore, it seems as if Donald has given up hope on the Putin bastard.
– Yesterday he wrote that the Russian nuclear threats must end! Finally! I say.
If the Slavs are threatened with nuclear weapons, we simply MUST threaten back!
That’s why they have nuclear weapons.
The conclusion is that the noose is tightening around the MFR’s neck.
Like an onion in the eyes of the warlike Slavs;
The wheat harvest in the MFR has failed!
Now they are forced to import food.
But the Russian propaganda knows why these plagues are hitting Russia.
It’s all the CIA’s fault! And all the Nazis of the world!
May Russia burn slowly in hell, I say.
HOW is the Ukrainian security service.
—-
Rt= Im right
Comments if not
Lewi
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1952000593842606188?s=46
Wonderful reading! Keeping my fingers crossed that everything is correct too!
😀👍
When the first Russian convoy has arrived in Belarus, a bit early in my opinion, is it a false flag that will trigger the attack from Belarus into Lithuania? Or into Ukraine?
Well, sounds a bit early. If it were just higher-ranking officers, one could imagine that they are supposed to participate in the planning and coordination of the exercise. Regular soldiers feel early.
“The first train transporting Russian troops and military equipment has arrived in Belarus in preparation for the upcoming joint strategic military drills, “Zapad-2025” on August 6, 2025. (Source: Belarus’s Ministry of Defense)”
Seems clear that it is a Russian unit that has arrived by train?”
Don’t worry MacMelmac, 165 people have voted that nothing will happen 👍
🎥The results of the “scorched earth” tactic used by the AFU🇺🇦 to combat the occupiers’ positions.
This form of counteraction is proving to be a fairly effective method of neutralising all enemy equipment. The rapid spread of fire in abnormal heat leaves them no time to evacuate.
🎥https://t.me/exilenova_plus/11224
No TACO here! Let’s see what India comes up with!
“Donald Trump has signed an executive order raising tariffs on India from 25 to 50 percent, the White House reports.
“I note that the Indian government is currently directly or indirectly importing oil from the Russian Federation,” the president writes in the order.
The connection to Russia makes the move “necessary and appropriate,” he continues.”
https://omni.se/klart-usa-infor-25-procents-tullar-mot-indien/a/wgWeq1
Gold star!
Biden did nothing to influence India’s purchase of Russian oil.
Good, but still that Russia has no punitive tariffs.
The Kremlin describes the meeting between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin as “useful and constructive,” Reuters reports.
The two met in Moscow today and talked for three hours. During the meeting, they reportedly discussed the war in Ukraine and the possibility of improving the “strategic partnership” between the US and Russia, according to spokesperson Yuri Ushakov.
He also said that Russia had received some “signals” from Trump to which they had responded, but what this means is unclear.
Considering Trump’s pressures on India, it was probably not a successful meeting and a ceasefire is probably far away.
Hello David, I replied to you quite late yesterday 👍
Great no1! Very good and interesting! I read the other blog less and less often. Becomes mcdonalds swish, better for me and better for you 😀
who is the traitor on the other blog? LW? Erik14? The old one? Everyone who hasn’t found their way here is a potential traitor? 😀
I can no longer pronounce Qvislingen’s name as I would then have to undergo a purification that takes half the evening but we can say that he is ancient anyway and pretended to be on the right side but has shown to stab the knife in the back as soon as it suited – which we have seen throughout world history.
Never forgive a traitor, as the saying goes 😐
The peace meeting in Moscow “Putin is still carrying out an offensive and we have to wait it out until he has taken what he wants.”
Do you know which RU units have arrived in Belarus?
Anyway – it won’t be over 13,000 in total in Zapad 25, and they are supposed to be in eastern Belarus, so nothing to worry about – the thread unanimously agreed on that yesterday 👍
Anyone dare to guess when the Chinese will arrive?
I think the robot troops in Luga must start moving from mid-August onwards?
Anyway, I don’t pay any attention to Zapad since nothing will happen 👍
I thought you would calm down if I removed the voting, but apparently it didn’t help. We will probably hear about it until ZAPAD is over, and if something serious actually happens, we will probably hear about it for several years to come. 😂
😀 well, the question johan no1, is when we/you/nato/everyone, can blow away the danger/the risk? Is it only after the exercise + x weeks that you/we can relax? If it happens, that is, the Russians cross the line according to your warnings, then we will of course unilaterally praise you as appropriate, you saw this first in the coffee grounds AND spread information in the world-leading forum, so that the leaders in the west/nato are given time to act according to the job description 😀
Several years – I will carve it into the square outside the parliament like on a runestone for the future.
Promise to visit the runes in that case!
Maybe I’ll bring some chips with ranch dip and a tall can to honor your prophetic ability!
Can’t you give them to me instead?
The text is already in English.
If you have mobilized too much, the only thing history will remember is that you burned gasoline and budget for nothing.
If, on the other hand, you have mobilized too little, it can become a very long description of the whole thing.
Of course, Russia is currently threatening with nuclear war for the smallest thing, but we KNOW that these are empty threats, until they are no longer.
The question one must ask oneself –
-IF Russia invades the Baltics, what do we do then.
-IF they do, is it less or more bad if we moved in troops in August.
It is responsible and good.
Right now –
-we are gambling on Putin not attacking.
And you know what there is NO plan for –
-what do we do if we were wrong and Putin attacked the Baltics?
Thank you for the reply! Sounds logical/reasonable.. the catch is that we/the people get the non-political leaders we deserve? In other words, the average person/people do not think it is important enough to minimize the risk with a strong NATO presence in the Baltic states? In other words, not enough political leaders want to push forward, as they believe that public opinion does not support it, meaning the risk of losing elections/votes?
Good times have given us weak leaders and now, because we have weak leaders, we are heading into bad times. But bad times will ultimately give us strong leaders.
Then it is excellent to have few who care if it does not directly affect them.
Hitler knew this and both Putin and Xi know it, we all learn from history but take away different things.
Thank you for the good answers! Now it’s becoming more and more popular in the West, with strong leaders like Orban, Trump, etc., that is, strong leaders with wrong morals. I guess you are looking for strong leaders with the right morals, like Churchill, like to some extent Macron? In general, it seems a bit empty unfortunately right now in the West, doesn’t it?
Step 1 close the ports of the Moscow state in the Baltic Sea.
Now you don’t need to worry, but a Latvian general has raised the alarm that up to 150,000 will participate in Zapad 25.
But since Putin has promised a maximum of 13,000 and the thread has unanimously voted, you don’t need to read the link.
https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/u-navchannyah-zahid-vizmut-uchast-vid-100-do-150-tisyach-viyskovih-novini-rosiji-50521182.html
It is alarming, they may choose to attack Ukraine from the north again.
Extremely simplified with capital letters and more than eight words per sentence so I don’t become incomprehensible –
If Ukraine is attacked from Belarus or the Baltics are attacked in the eastern corner, it’s about equally bad.
It’s equally bad because the West doesn’t have a plan for intervention in either case.
The Ukraine scenario –
Pressure up at the fronts, attacks from Transnistria and attacks from Belarus.
Keep Poland occupied with the exercise against their border.
Something that has proven to be very difficult after the autumn of 2023 is to smoke out the Russian bastards from their holes so when they reach Lviv, they are there.
The difference is that Ukraine is probably much better prepared.
Although I agree, we are, and have been, doing too little all the time.
If they really attack, it would be best if they went northwest, so that Europe finally wakes up and Ukraine avoids this time. They have fought intensely to repel the Russians for 3.5 years and do not deserve to have that front opened again.
The problem is that Ukraine doesn’t have any significant defense against Belarus and none against Transnistria.
By the way, don’t think you can come and say, “I told you so,” if it ends with them going into Ukraine! 😄
No of course, I never get it right 👍
Yes, it happens sometimes, but when it comes to ZAPAD, it’s the attack in the other direction that you’ve driven.😉
🇫🇷 In France, a so-called “mobile mini-factory” is being tested, which can produce 60 units of FPV drones in one day.
▪️ This factory consists of a trailer device where 3D printers are located, which print the frames of SL 450 NG3 FPV unmanned aerial vehicles.
▪️ Printing one frame takes about 3 hours, and the trailer device operates up to 19 hours a day using a mobile generator.
🎥https://x.com/visionergeo/status/1952819130169438334?s=46
Very good, Macron managed to find a gap in his constant quarrel with his wife and did something good 👍
The voting disappeared 😶
I managed to convince Jari to vote 200 times each and then it’s gone before we could…
Something else that I think slipped by without anyone reacting was that China no longer sells rare earth metals or magnets to our defense industry, and that the prices for some important products/raw materials/components have increased 60 times.
If SVD didn’t pick up on it from Flashback directly, it’s because I already posted about it in a post that no one read, so it’s not news.
For example, Turkey controls 100% of the EU’s import for a key component in rubber.
It was quite a while ago that China limited its exports, wasn’t it already last spring? March, April?
It was probably also discussed in connection with the US agreement with Ukraine.
Then, suddenly, it also started to be discussed here in Sweden that we should speed up our own extraction to reduce dependency.
I don’t know if anything concrete came out of that.
Since the USA lifted its threats, everything was supposed to return to normal, but that didn’t happen.
Have you heard anything about our own extraction, or is the Green Party still blocking it?
It was our own extraction I meant when I wrote that I didn’t know if there would be any more. Of course, it’s not something you figure out in an afternoon.
Just pondering if it’s worth the investments, especially when tariffs and the global situation are uncertain.
Fun to invest and just when you start to see results, China changes and competes with lower prices, so that investment was wasted.
You can’t force companies in Sweden and the EU to buy Swedish just because it would be good not to depend on China.
If we impose high tariffs on China, they might respond by further restricting something we need.
Nikki Haley a bit on Johan’s track.
“India should not be buying oil from Russia. But China, an adversary and the number one buyer of Russian and Iranian oil, got a 90-day tariff pause. Don’t give China a pass and burn a relationship with a strong ally like India.”
Did she read the blog this morning?
An otherwise excellent column today! Enlightening and brilliant observations with both facts and truths.
She usually terrorizes me on WhatsApp for help with various questions – I rarely have time for her but sometimes I solve her problems 👍
She is right in a way.
Moreover, China is an even bigger importer.
(Could also be applied to the fact that Russia has not received tariffs when all other trading partners have received them.
Do not benefit Russia and burn bridges with other allies..)
Kan rekommendera den här också
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exploits-latvian-vulnerabilities-to-undermine-baltic-defenses-part-two/
Interesting!👍
Russian losses:
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lvrugzbjnc2r