We must never forget the sacrifice made by the Ukrainian defense forces 😬
The Lions
On the 5th/6th of February – the exact date is up for debate among historians, the offensive operations by Ukraine began, which I still guess means that different fronts get a window to try to relate to because dates are probably too difficult, and then some unit commander, somewhat surprised, has managed to get everything in order and starts up happily ahead of everyone else.
What historians will agree on, again, is that the date I established first in the world after all the open-source intelligence and established media is the date that matters.
I conveyed my courteous order in a tweet on Bluesky on the 6th of February, which should be enough, the world’s experts received the message express early the next morning, and Ukraine understood that they had to start their offensive then and got a little panicked as they were not completely prepared 👍
In Kursk, they opened up on a large scale, and in Pokrovsk, UA has recaptured several towns, everything is still rumors for now it seems. But historically, keeping things under wraps has meant anything but peace and quiet for the Russians.
There are rumors of offensive operations near Toretsk 🧐
The logical next step would be –
-more attack vectors at the northern front in different locations.
-concern in Belarus
-battles at the Dnieper after a crazy pre-emptive strike with drones, Himars, and JDAMS.
-exploit openings along the fronts, regain the initiative.
As usual, everyone is too late on this and doesn’t understand that the 2025 offensive has begun.
The situation is excellent – RU is tired after an extremely long offensive that surprised everyone, even Budanov, UA has received Patriot missiles and aircraft, UA has received equipment and has reorganized personnel and geographical limitations, and red cards are supposed to be gone according to themselves.
The weather is a few degrees below zero, which allows them to cross marshes and small waterways, probably, where the lazy Russians haven’t mined.
Then anything can happen, like the spring offensive of 2023 that started on the 3rd-5th of May (historians are still arguing about my date, and now I’ve forgotten it 😬) or when they failed to take the area behind Sejm in August 2024 – where I assumed it was resolved after a period of silence, and then the blow came when it became clear that the critical attack had failed.
If there are only battles inside the Kursk bulge, it probably means that UA cannot open up more attack vectors to the west, but we hope that the west has learned and that this is not just a facade for negotiations by a naive west that believes that Russia will follow an agreement for the first time in 300 years.
I’ve been watching films from the first years of the war – the first faltering steps. Yes, it was a bit during Friday’s drinking when I was looking for videos and going through my Twitter list before I saw double of all the rum, which is produced in the country, incredibly, and I live in the epicenter/ground zero for Friday drinking 🤩
The difference between those films and how Azov or 3rd Assault clear defensive systems today is like the step from crawling to learning to walk, and then cycling. Mastering clearing defenses is like riding a unicycle.
The most difficult part is getting inside the defensive system because the red side has prepared its defense against just that, and then everything must be cleared of Russian bastards. And then one must immediately switch to defense and combat the rapid response force, and then, or before, endure a devastating indirect fire. It’s very difficult, especially when FAB is present.
Shoutout to all the armchair warriors who want to continue arguing about the world’s best infantry – you should be ashamed even though you don’t have the sense to do it because you would have stumbled upon the first landmine and lain there sulking without legs, and then no one would have helped you because everyone would have read your tweets about how bad the Ukrainian soldiers are.
However, I still find column driving in mechanized warfare on roads strange, but I have understood one thing, and that is that our mechanized warfare in basic training did not factor in mines as it looks in real life, and neither has NATO doctrine.
We conducted battalion attacks across fields on the battle line, and in reality, half of the vehicles would have been knocked out by mines, at least.
(calling them battalion attacks might be a stretch, we probably managed to scrape together three companies…).
This is still almost insurmountable, and I believe that drone mine clearance and identification will become significant in the future – Western experts are working on it, or they are trying to persuade Ukraine to reveal how it’s done so they can steal the idea and claim it as their own.
Yes, UA has learned to break through minefields, but they still move in columns and are easy targets.
The only reason I can think of why we didn’t fight against deep minefields is that there haven’t been any proper exercises on the matter because the defender has always managed to halt everything.
The tank has been adapted to become a sharpshooter with explosives rather than a battering ram, and we have seen that all fragmentation protection is good in this war. Or everything can be taken out by drones, so nothing is really better than anything else.
A good weapon station has proven to be excellent, and IFVs definitely have a future, but one should probably do as Ukraine and have a simple vehicle with a well-produced cheap weapon station in the thousands instead of a few hundred Rolls-Royces with the world’s most advanced turret costing 9 million euros.
The West has mass-produced blast-protected jeeps, MRAPs, and all those, but they should build tracked IFVs with weapon stations, albeit cheap, and yes – it works perfectly fine.
Yes, wheeled vehicles also work well, but they must be APCs.
But ultimately, it all comes down to personal skills and marksmanship – those who never falter and die behind piles of spent casings every day so that we don’t have to think about the war.
How many times in this war has UA retreated?
Very few times, and they have fought out of insane numerical disadvantages almost the entire war.
The most important thing in the West is to have highly motivated soldiers, and that is not achieved by political mismanagement, so our politicians also have a great responsibility in times of unrest, even if they don’t seem to understand it – all our parties.
But now, all of this may become secondary because it actually seems like Ukraine is heading towards a resounding victory here – the coffee grounds never lie, but the only thing it doesn’t know and has underestimated throughout the war is the West’s ability to betray Ukraine, which is also the unknown factor in 2025. Everything looks bright now, but a little stumbling block for Ukraine so that things don’t go too well can always come for the tenth time in this war.
So what is it that we’re seeing that made us ring the bell on February 6th in a solemn ceremony here at the editorial office?
Looking at MXT’s legendary lottery rows, we see how RU’s offensive is starting to lose momentum now, and a not entirely bad guess was that RU’s last card to play was to pretend to be strong until Trump took over?
It’s not down by half, but a significant decrease.
Below you can see the graph that I produce entirely on my own with a quantum computer and not just copying, and it shows a clear decrease.
Considering that UA has just started offensive operations, this tells us that RU’s offensive capability has likely begun to diminish (for this time in the near future!).
That’s the first sign.
The second was the offensive in Kursk where three attack vectors with battalion attacks cut through defenses that on paper were multiple brigades of RU elite forces.
And the third was that UA carried out a series of attacks down in Pokrovsk, and now there are rumors about Toretsk.
UA doesn’t have an acute shortage of equipment – a huge amount has been delivered since late autumn – winter, but not much is being written about it anymore.
UA’s REMO program and the programs in Europe are also running hot, where the BMP-1 becomes a vehicle with the latest weapon station of the 2025 model, as well as the BTR-60, and they received at least 300 units from Bulgaria.
They have probably also sorted out personnel now, perhaps when they moved 50,000 from the shaft to the tip and then disbanded the other brigades. They are already soldiers who just need to learn how things work in the brigade they have been moved to.
If UA managed to carry out offensives in 2022, it would be quite strange if they couldn’t do it in 2025, right?
And now the top-tier aircraft has arrived, and they have received the Patriot – a good chance of Russian aircraft raining down again soon.
Of course, they are also constantly targeting airbases and LV, but it’s not showing up on the loss lists anymore – I have a LOT of open-source intelligence tweets confirming it, but the lottery row is still at zero. Not sure if it’s intentional or if the open-source intelligence is starting to lie, but it’s a bit strange.
It’s not just refineries that are being taken out…
Regarding the refineries, the most optimistic figures now show a 50% reduction, and then everyone says there is redundancy. It could also be that the redundancy was used up during UA’s refinery attacks in 2024 and that now it’s a real decrease?
Then there’s the oil exports and fuel depots, as well as ammunition depots and military equipment manufacturing.
And now the partisans are on steroids.
Everything is activated right now, but the West is calmed with promises of negotiations where Zelensky talks about a fair peace – do you think it means giving up a lot of land to Putin?
I would be very surprised if the West sells out Ukraine in 2025 after what they have shown they can achieve.
All the West needs to do now is to continue SELLING equipment to Ukraine and then DO NOTHING – it’s difficult for current politicians to argue for anything else without appearing pro-Russian, right?
Yes, Scholz can never hide that he’s bought, but he’s alone now actually, and we hope he becomes history in the election soon, even though Afd is also bought by Putin, unfortunately.
If we don’t see more attack vectors at the northern front, my conclusion is that the West still has limitations despite all the messages that everything has been removed, we’ll see.
This would ultimately mean that the current offensive attempts are just for negotiating position in consultation with the West, but I’m not quite ready to believe that yet.
The negotiations are absolutely high-risk for UA, and if they have the slightest opportunity to strike anyway, they will, and it’s clearly a low point for RU now.
Russia will never voluntarily release occupied areas in Ukraine if they don’t have to. Or they won’t give up an inch unless forced, and the only way to force them is to collapse the country.
A not so small dig at the Biden enthusiasts that Carillo is now coming out hard against Biden, and he/she/they (I’m not clear on pronouns here and cover all bases to not upset anyone) probably has pretty good insight into this, I guess. A fair aftermath that obviously won’t make it into the history books, where the USA saved the world as usual.
And it’s nice that Sullivan’s career is over, even if it’s more about a power takeover than punishing him for betraying Ukraine.
The inventive Ukrainians have covered mines in foam and painted them to blend in completely with the terrain, and then released them with drones – it’s quite interesting that no one previously thought of building mines already camouflaged. In basic training, half of mine laying was to disguise them.
On a muddy road that’s been churned up, it’s perfectly fine to manufacturing camouflage them, right?
This one must be included 🤬
One of the Israeli prisoners is released and gets to say a few words into a camera at Hamas before walking over, and he is overjoyed to reunite with his wife and daughter after 1.5 years in captivity. What Hamas hasn’t told him is that they have already killed his entire family…
Here’s a mechanical breakdown during WW2 – what do you see?
Well, 20-30 vehicles, right.
We’ve been fed a bit with movies and history and feel that a large attack is just a division on the move, but it’s not entirely uncommon for it to look like this, right?
With this, I want to say that the Ukraine war is high-intensity.
If you want more signs than you need, it’s SALTINT (at its best…) now that RU is pulling its last defense away from Moscow to fight against UA. Not sure exactly what it means in practice and saltint as mentioned.
And the Ukrainian laser troops keep fighting on 😁
And then when the idiot Macron thought that Putin would keep a promise not to invade Ukraine when Russia has broken everything they have ever promised in the past 200 years, it should be a crime to be so stupid.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
NOTE: Those of you who do NOT want to allow automatic translation of your comments, please go to your profile page and set it.
Hover over your name at the top right, select edit profile, and you will then find the setting under the language settings heading.
👍 Thank you for today’s post (can’t really call it the yellow road anymore, or maybe I should make sure your posts turn yellow? hmm).
Very interesting if the rumors are true that they are taking troops from Moscow!
Breathes desperation and also one should then be able to assume that North Korea does not intend to send any large numbers of soldiers because then it would not have been necessary.
Sounds reasonable – desperation and anxiety in the command center
I will post today’s lottery numbers here now when there is already a post today.
We have now surpassed 10,000 tanks and 850k KWIA!
1170 KWIA
9 Tanks
16 APVs
35 Artillery systems
3 Anti-Aircraft systems
137 UAVs
109 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lhsfltvy3k22
The number of liberated barbarians has been decreasing for a while now 👍
138 KAB, still high, is starting to become the new normal again.
AFU: “In total, 99 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.
According to the information, yesterday, the enemy launched two missile strikes using two missiles at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, as well as 87 air strikes, dropping 138 controlled bombs. In addition, over five thousand eight hundred shellings were carried out, of which 133 were from jet systems of salvo fire, and 2427 kamikaze drones were used for attacks.”
Well, this damn weapon started creeping up again.
But poor aim so RU releases 4 per target apparently.
(have it in the next post so don’t accuse me of intellectual property theft or anything)
Or waving with copyright
😄
The longer the table, the less……..?
RU – Iran – Hamas and Hezbollah. Three-legged evil.
Cut off one of them and it will start to crumble. One is enough!
To sit in Europe and defend RU deserves nothing but a lamppost. Traitor!
Now, here in SE, we can only use lampposts to light up roads, etc., so instead we should confiscate the assets stolen from the Swedish people and then deport the filth to their beloved crap country. We don’t need to worry about what happens to traitors who can’t be trusted there.
Yes, Iran is well on its way to collapse as well.
And Israel has clarified the concepts for Hamas and Hezbollah.
Something I noticed when I looked at Ragnar’s statistics is that the losses of “Special equipment” have decreased significantly, especially when compared to “soft vehicles” where they previously followed each other fairly closely.
They have it – and LV too, but the non-sinters have a lot of deferred LV in their reports so I’m a bit questioning what’s going on here
Extremely good daily update!
Thank you 👍
Johan No.1 for president, if you have time of course.
War is also a spectacle, and it is fascinating to see how the little comedian Zelensky has left the stage and is now shaping the future of all of Europe. While Swedish cultural gnomes claim they are not willing to take up arms. Heavy defeats are recommended in some places.
RU removing resources from Moscow may perhaps give UA the opportunity to create some smoke and dust there. Putin’s empire is faltering, and a scared or angry urban elite that takes action could be like putting a needle to a balloon. Poof.
If Trump’s long game (nice not to write on cornu and be affected by the neuroses of little girls) is primarily to deal with China and sees Ukraine mostly as an intermezzo, then one can ponder the continuation. Does Trump possibly need a somewhat intact RU as a barrier against the Chinese? They have long been eyeing the ports around Vladivostok. Is there a risk that DT prevents RU’s necessary reset?
Yes, I’ll take the job – still waiting for a DM on Bluesky with the details (salary and which car) 👍
Zelensky and UA have gone from begging and pleading to having control and being able to manipulate the West – extremely skillfully.
And all this without the “support of popular movements” (because they control Russia) and the whole apparatus that kicks in as soon as Israel or the USA does something.
Since 2022, I have been saying that we WANT Ukraine in the EU and defense alliance – JEF will probably be the final result.
Yes – it is widely accepted that the USA has China as its primary target and that the UA war must be handled with that in mind.
However, one doesn’t need to treat it as if UA must lose – Russia doesn’t need to be plunged into chaos just because they retreat.
It’s a Russian psyops driving the narrative that everyone seems to believe in.
However, I would like to see Russia in chaos so the country becomes weaker in the future.
Putte may have realized that military personnel should preferably be on the other side of the Rubicon when one starts to lose control.
Probably the penny will start to drop now 🤣🤣
The most “worrying” rumor (from my point of view) that I’ve heard from a conservative commentator in the USA is that the USA/Trump absolutely does not want China to plunder Russia for cheap natural resources (Trump wants access to them), China would become too strong. So having a plan or understanding of what one wants with Russia after the war is probably good for our leaders to have. I want Russia to crash but I don’t want it to lead to us feeding an even worse enemy and I’m not sure I can have both.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Russia’s natural resources are part of the equation when Trump makes his statements about Greenland, though purely speculative.
🤬
“Russia brutally tortured 73-year-old American Stephen Hubbard after capturing him in Izium, Ukraine.
He endured electric shocks, beatings, and starvation. The U.S. now deems him “wrongfully detained,” but his whereabouts remain unknown.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lhszcvv4s32f
https://united24media.com/latest-news/73-year-old-american-teacher-brutally-tortured-in-russian-prison-after-capture-in-ukraine-5742“
Well, that was an interesting term for extreme torture they came up with 😐
The country that used to start wars to bring its citizens home…
Likely part of the plan for Trump to accept all of RU’s demands for peace in Ukraine…
A diabolical plan
“Europe mulls large-scale seizures of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ ships, Politico reports.”
Denmark is going to start inspecting all ships so I will come tomorrow.
So now things are happening.
I guess it will be the JEF countries again that take action 👍
😆
“In Danmark har allmänna aktivister föreslagit att köpa Kalifornien från USA för en biljon dollar som svar på Trumps anspråk på Grönland.
❗️Petitionen har redan samlat nästan 200 000 underskrifter.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lht4nhybgc2q
Isn’t Denmark and Greenland more of a federation according to the new constitution? So it would be more reasonable to ask to buy California from Texas than from the USA. They probably want to sell too!
Or conquer Mar a Lago 💥
“Rheinmetall today announced the delivery of a further five Caracal air assault vehicles to #Ukraine financed by the German government. This brings the total number of Caracals delivered to 20, with five more to follow in the near future.”
One had to google them. No screen protector included?
No, not really. They look more professional and a bit meaner than the Chinese golf carts, but probably serve about the same purpose.
Something for the officers to drive around in at home on the barracks’ grounds!
Maybe it could be used to chase Shaheds with?
Kasernrally 🤣🤣
Good Johan No.1! I think the website is the best!
Then I like Peter the Great’s post 10.39. There were valuable things slipping out, big and small. – I would like to add that the USA, almost from day 4 or so, seems to have had the goal of bleeding the Russians to the maximum. The longer and more expensive the war, in every respect, the better. The USA’s interests were secondary, just important that they didn’t lose. – As our world-leading analyst (so not me, but No.1) usually writes, the USA is like the bank. Not your friend and only does what they benefit from.
I hope JEF takes off and becomes something really good, with the USA included. The potential is there, but is there the courage and the will?
True words were spoken today by politicians and analysts.
A few years ago, you would have been criticized just for thinking the thought, so the USA has partly shot itself in the foot here.
Well, the epithet No.1 after my name I did get a few weeks before Queen Elizabeth died instead of being knighted 👍
JEF is definitely coming
Sure, it would be “noone”? 😉
I should have taken the noble title 😭
As usual, very readable. Bows and thanks!
Thank you and nice that you found your way here 👍
10,000 tanks is bizarre. Successful special operation 😀
Great coffee grounds today, thank you very much!
Thank you, yes, it is made with the Caribbean equivalent of Nescafe Luxury which tastes like fox poison 👍
Open Bar! Johan, now hopefully some reinforcements are coming, GOP has come to life.
“Today, I will introduce the FREEDOM FIRST LEND-LEASE ACT to give President Trump flexible authorities to send war-winning weapons to our partners including Ukraine to deter War Criminal Putin as Biden should have done long ago. Bring Russia to the table through American Strength!”
https://x.com/RepJoeWilson/status/1889006399297859924?t=FyK1Bf5V2kYsVO9m5xWNOg&s=19
I saw it 🤩🤩🤩
Victory weapons 🤣🤣🤣
This is potentially huge and David D is absolutely ecstatic
Open bar, where is it? Give me the address and I’ll come 😳