Ukraine daily update February 11, 2025

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Update

The Lions

I continue to push that UA initiated offensive operations on 5/6 February according to my gongong post on bluesky even though established media has not yet picked up on it. I don’t understand why they can’t just report pre-analyzed information without waiting for something additional. BUT this information is quite important for the peace negotiations this week.

That RU’s offensive has peaked, which we see VERY CLEARLY in the losses, and that Ukraine has carried out offensive operations in Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, as well as in Siversk, apparently is significant.

So if any media reads or otherwise takes in the information – please start writing about this now so it spreads, as it gives Ukraine an advantage in negotiations if the general perception is that RU is on the defensive, and Ukraine is advancing.

After all, politicians have a general opinion to relate to, and what the media pushes out has absolutely great importance, as we have seen in various crises and events over the years. The media has managed to drive the craziest of narratives that politicians eventually yielded to, like the shutdown of nuclear power, for example.

And if they managed that feat, they might as well report the truth when it comes to Ukraine, don’t you think?

Then someone sat yesterday and mocked my choice of sources and that Ukraine might not have been in Kruglenkove, so nice that Deepstate confirmed it. UA has also advanced on the eastern side in the middle of the veritable forest of VDV brigades 😲

The unit maps match very well for Vijesti referred to the 22nd Mech, who are the ones in the area, and it was the same for the RU brigades on the western side that took a beating.

Things are not going well for the Russian bastards right now, with several ships again experiencing engine room explosions and groundings – we have a spy ship in the Mediterranean on fire, a Chinese ship grounded in Sakhalin, and an oil tanker that sank at the pier (sort of…) in Ulan Ude after a mysterious explosion – three in a row.

At the fronts, camel shooting has now been filmed, so it’s no longer a good story but true 😲

I don’t want to make fun of this sick person but genuinely feel sorry for him, saving the video for the future when absolutely NO ONE will believe me in five years.

And after the donkey carts and cavalry, which followed golf carts and scooter shooting, we now have camel shooting, which is probably better than the tractor shooting we also saw.

Overall, it seems that everything except armored vehicles is being used nowadays by the Russian Red Army to ride out into battle.

This is actually becoming quite embarrassing now and is probably also devastating for self-image – the general staff can’t even pretend to have professional pride anymore when they order forward a brigade of donkey shooters supported by crutch shooters, while on the other side stands a UA Lynx battalion revving their engines 🤣🤣

We have discussed this several times in the past six months, that Putin’s escalation ladder involves an attack on Finland and/or the Baltics to test NATO, and that he has deployed two army corps for that purpose, and that Belarus’ defense forces have been trained by Wagner since 2023, with 7000 troops in the country.

Zelensky confirms what we have discussed – Putin has his eyes on the West, and the next escalation will not be against UA but against NATO to test NATO – my bet is that the West should listen to Zelensky, or me.

Putin is in the process of (trying to) set up two army corps for the purpose, to which he is directing newer equipment.

In simple terms – they enter eastern Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania (each with about 6500 troops under arms) and take up defensive positions behind minefields and natural obstacles like rivers – and deploy a blanket of LV, fighter jets, artillery, and drones over everything.

The existing defense is swept away because these 6500 + international Lithuanian brigade have a vast area to defend, and Belarus seemed threatening. Two army corps became a bit too overwhelming even for the heroes in the Lithuanian brigade when clouds of FPV drones created chaos.

Then NATO must decide whether to try to push out the Russians, for example, our battalion in the Lithuanian brigade, and then it’s not a question of defensive operations/defense but covering a few miles and then trying to defeat the Russian invasion force that is in defense and waiting for just that.

The European forces lack combat experience and do not have the experience, especially with drone weapons, that RU has.

Putin expects the following, and the upside is enormous –

-all countries must vote on the operation in their parliaments, and he can activate his support parties to obstruct the process.

-there will be a HUGE “why should we sacrifice our sons’ lives for a field in eastern Estonia” from just EVERYONE – the peace movement, the environmental movement, Islamists, left, right, and some political parties. Demonstrations everywhere, and sitting politicians are portrayed as real warmongers.

-real opposition sees an opportunity to topple sitting governments, which is not unreasonable 🧐

-if there is a battle, the losses will be so high that NATO will give up its attempts.

What is the downside?

That his two army corps, suitably battered, have to retreat back across the border or how 😀

Because I can already promise you today that NATO will not be prepared to invade Russia.

Right now, Ukraine prevents NATO from completely embarrassing itself, but if the West continues to play both sides, we may well end up in this situation in the future, and it will be a sad story.

Forget the whole “we’ll bomb everyone with our tomahawks” – you know as well as I do how difficult it is to take out the shooters in Ukraine and RU will be just as difficult to kill in the forests of eastern Estonia where they are scattered.

RU will try to strike back with indirect capabilities against our indirect capabilities, and above all – the West’s ammunition stocks for our indirect capabilities are not very large at all.

The risk is looming that Putin will succeed in getting away with a “Putin promises eternal peace if NATO does not go to war with him, a reasonable offer in our opinion,” and then we let his little land grab be.

And then Putin has tested NATO in front of the whole world and shown that you can do whatever you want if you dare – and that will be the starting shot for global escalation.

Especially since he already has his fifth columnists in NATO and then in the EU who can hinder and cause mischief.

For me, this is the next step together with China coming up with something, and time will realize this. Right now, Ukraine stands between Russia and the West completely embarrassing itself, but over time, RU will initiate this even if the war in Ukraine continues.

This online path is the dumbest thing I’ve seen since my short career with multiplayer in Age of Empires where I built square defense cubes of walls without gates and placed many archers inside (before they were fully built). The idea was that they would be impenetrable defensive islands with overlapping arrow showers and that the opponents would fall by the thousands.

The opponents called it slaughter pens and built better upgraded archers who shot farther, and catapults, and had a festive evening.

Even though RU attacks across the fronts have decreased from 176 to 100, FAB bombing has started again, which is very sad (MXT brought this up yesterday but he has promised not to wave the copyright paper).

Meanwhile, the UA strategic drone war continues unabated, with intervals of only a few days between operations, which is completely insane.

Even though “some” claim that the drone maps are not authentic and complain about sources, the devastation that Ukraine has caused in just over a month is enormous.

Now they are at two refineries in Krasnodar, which are not the largest, +6 million annually.

This is completely unsustainable for Russia if the refinery capacity has decreased as claimed in a month, 50% are just flying around like some thread truth but is of course based on the number of refineries that have temporarily ceased production.

Ukraine’s drone production has only just begun, and they are now using 200,000 drones per month 😲

Per month, it is probably more than the total number of military drones in the entire West.

The other day, Ukraine also took out storage for surveillance and Shahed drones, but I didn’t save the link – hardly news value anymore for such small targets 😅

Then this, I don’t know how much we practiced disembarkation to prevent this from happening, and this is not something you see very often – BMP drops off the shooters and then backs straight over them 😲

I have found incredibly exciting films for Friday night with the night sky from Mars and the sound on Mars.

If there is something I am interested in besides slacking off at work and collecting Star Wars figures, it is our upcoming space program. I am especially interested in the fact that planets are not black and white as I have always thought but colorful little balls, and that there is water and atmosphere on almost every planet out there. The likelihood of finding life on other planets in the future should be almost a given, which would be fun to experience in one’s lifetime actually.

It will be a bit like the moon race in the 60s when the Russians sent up dogs and monkeys that died and the USA landed and hopped around on the moon.

Then it is a real no-brainer which of China, India, or the USA will be the first to bring home the first explosively invasive species that escapes from a laboratory.

This looks incredibly bright, and if the West can just avoid being talked over by Putin this week, it would be appreciated.

As usual, if you liked the post, please share, and if you want a fun comment section, try johanno1.se.

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43 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update February 11, 2025”

  1. Lynx

    Yes, it feels like we’re approaching the final act in Ukraine this year. I guess that the personnel supply in the Moscow realm is starting to falter significantly and that they are forced to cease the constant streams of meat. Then everything else that adds to this, and Ukraine can move forward in a number of different places.

    We must stick together now and not start dilly-dallying. Absolutely do not involve the EU in something that is central to defense capability, the line should be that each state decides and those in agreement act. Then fico and others cannot lay any vetoes and throw a wrench into the works. NATO and JEF serve well as frameworks.

    1. johan No.1

      Exactly – we are definitely in the final act even though it might be quite long and tough. The downhill slope is slippery and leaning more and more in favor of Putin 👍

  2. Mats

    Johan, appreciates the frequent reporting.

    Concerning Russia building two completely new army corps that they then seem to consider unnecessary in Ukraine. Two army corps correspond to about 20,000 soldiers, which is not a huge amount in Ukraine, but immensely much towards a small Baltic country. If this new equipment is added, it might possibly explain the shortage on the front where the amount of infantry pays with their lives for the lack of armor. I think there should be plenty of pictures and information about this, but I can’t find anything at all. We know that Russia, after all, has many weapons factories and manages to bypass a lot of sanctions thanks to money-hungry companies in the West that have no moral compass.

    This week will be exciting, but still sad that the USA is sending JD for this important meeting. He absolutely has no power and nothing to say. He doesn’t even seem to get to “hang out” with Musk and Trump. Completely marginalized and also completely assimilated into the talent reserve. It’s impossible to take anything he says seriously, and it’s clear that he has no mandate.

    It feels like the pace of Ukrainian drone attacks has decreased somewhat in the last week. At least the targets they manage to hit, but maybe they are holding back a bit for a big blow. I’m still waiting for “real” ballistic missiles that cause more damage and are difficult to stop. When will they come on a larger scale?

    Looking forward to your reporting this week as there will be a lot happening!

    1. johan No.1

      Exactly – it’s a bit unclear if they have used them or not against Kursk but RU is trying to build up a capability against the Baltics with new equipment for sure.

      If they attack in a geographically limited area in eastern Estonia, the defense will be 400 strong and reinforcements a few days away.
      Everyone will be caught off guard as usual despite all warning signs.

      RU builds a few hundred wagons per year, mostly modifications. The same goes for other systems.
      If they are not supplied to UA, there will be some left over time.

      And of course, they still have some left that they are holding back.

      Yup, now the updates will come daily in the morning again 👍

    1. johan No.1

      Yes, that’s what Putin hopes for.
      But Putin doesn’t like JEF at all.

      We’ll see, after this war I’m not so convinced anymore about the infallibility of the West.

  4. MatsExtrude

    It’s almost as if one hopes that those peace negotiations take time to get started, preferably seeing Ukraine gaining a significantly stronger negotiating position, but of course, that requires them to receive enough material, and it seems to be running out from the USA, and there hasn’t been any major effort communicated from Europe yet, even though there are reports of some deliveries now and then.

    2. Westley Richard

      Putin believes he is approaching the finish line of his marathon and sees the tape, giving his last efforts to reach the goal.
      It is then that the Western world is supposed to step in and tell him to run another lap.

      I have some hopes for the proposed LEND-LEASE program that has been suggested, and that a certain president will get a bit grumpy when he realizes that the minerals are on the Russian side.

  5. MatsExtrude

    I was busy this morning, but here is the lottery ticket:

    1390 KWIA
    13 Tanks
    31 APVs
    44 Artillery systems
    2 MLRS
    1 Anti-Aircraft system
    132 UAVs
    2 Cruise missiles
    169 Vehicles & fuel tanks
    1 Special equipment

    Russian losses 2025-02-11
  6. DJ

    If Russia tests NATO in the Baltics, why can’t NATO respond with Tomahawk? Not on the battlefield, but in Russia’s weapon factories and remaining refineries as well as in all power plants? Without weapons, fuel, and electricity, they can’t sustain an occupation.

    1. Mats

      The point is probably that NATO does not dare to do this to a country that has nuclear weapons, but I hope we do not have to find out. Sweden has acquired offensive weapons (late…) precisely because it understands the need to be able to strike deeply to deter and win.

    2. johan No.1

      If it had been Biden – never would Putin have threatened with full-scale nuclear war and driven out all Oreshnik in completion.
      Trump – who knows, he is unpredictable to say the least 😲

      But…

      Then RU will shoot robots towards Europe and we definitely do not have LV coverage everywhere.
      How will Europe react to that – Trump shooting Tomahawks at Russia and us getting robots over us?

      1. Lynx

        It’s probably not just number 47 that will launch the Tomahawk, though. And NATO has probably done a lot to connect the airspace, especially along the border with the burning garbage dump. If Ukraine can take down such a high percentage of their robots, I guess Europe can handle at least this, probably more since we have significantly stronger air forces. But being prepared obviously wins, and unfortunately, there is a considerable risk that the idiots at the garbage dump will get carried away.

        1. johan No.1

          Yes, indeed, and at least Finland has prepared well and promised devastation if the Baltics are attacked.

          Sabotage in Europe with explosive charges?

        2. DJ

          We will probably have some preparation time because I don’t think Europe will once again fall for troop build-ups on the Baltic front, including medical wagons with blood, etc., just being an exercise. A reasonable demand in a peace agreement is that Russia is not allowed to practice along Europe’s front unless we shoot them away.

  7. MatsExtrude

    “Ukrainian forces (SBS, GUR, SSO) struck the Saratov oil refinery overnight on Feb 11 – General Staff confirms. The refinery produces over 20 types of fuel, including diesel and gasoline, supplying the Russian army. Confirmed hits caused a fire at the facility.”

    1. Mats

      Really good! Thought the pace in the attacks on depots and refineries had slowed down, but it seems to have been a short break. I suppose one needs to prioritize targets and also attack front-line troop concentrations as well as smaller storages that are not written about much.

      1. MatsExtrude

        Yes, it’s nice to see that they can continue to strike against the refineries and other targets more in-depth.

        I was a little worried that they might not be able to keep up the pace production-wise, but it doesn’t seem to be a problem for them to continue even if it’s not every day. As you write, they may need to use them for other targets, and maybe each deep strike attack also takes some time to plan. I don’t know if they even have people in place in Russia to gather information on the situation around refineries and depots. For example, if there are AA, installed nets, and other defenses around the facilities so that one can plan from which direction to attack and which parts, etc. If so, it may also take some time to receive such reports.

  8. Westley Richard

    200,000 drones per month, means about 7,000 units per day. Flying drones is not like shooting off an artillery piece, no fire and forget here, it requires control and monitoring throughout the entire flight time. UA must have a large number of operators who are extremely competent. I hope that Sweden in the future can benefit from all this expertise.

    1. johan No.1

      I seem to recall that they went from isolated drone units to each brigade having operators?

      I saw a movie where the operator starts, flies, engages, and starts the next one running so they probably send off a couple during the RU attack.

      And then nighttime raids with hundreds of drones 💥💥💥

      Maybe it’s true?

      They probably have a kill rate of under 50% and then 1500 dead barbarians per day + some hardware + a bit in-depth?

      But yes, as you write, it’s quite an organization they’ve set up in that case.

      Or maybe Zelensky is just exaggerating a bit 😀

    2. Peter Den Större

      Hopps, this is undoubtedly the most high-octane rumor of the day. When No.47 the Unpredictable makes a turn, he creates a vortex in the surroundings and then it’s buckle up time. Click. I have buckled up. Will Napoleon go right, will Charles XII choose the valley, will Hannibal freeze on the mountain?

  14. MatsExtrude

    “AFU attacked two customs checkpoints in the Bryansk region, where the Russian Armed Forces were based. Two soldiers were killed, eight were injured, – ASTRA”

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