Ukraine daily update February 12, 2026

This post has been in the works for a while but I got stuck when the USA started shaking the whole apple tree.

Ukraine is, to me, a light in the darkness – they are currently the only country that has dealt with existing structures and taken the fight.

We know that the USA is trying to manipulate everything to its advantage again, and that Ukraine has been collateral in it just like the Kurds were when the USA wanted Syria. The highest risk there is that we will see a revived ISIS, and several steps indicate that, as the USA first created them and then revived them when they died out – cynical but good for the USA because in the MENA region, they can also sell security at five times the market price.

With a passive Europe, and now as Epstein (which I will come back to in another post) begins to unfold, you understand that our leaders are not as free birds as we would like to believe – something I have been discussing for four years, although my perspective was not through Epstein but rather Russia.

If Ukraine can break Russia’s back, we can get rid of a centuries-old hydra, and Europe can finally unite in a scattered coalition where we must vote on all tough measures, maybe we can start doing good in the world – that has been my hope, and I began to feel hopeful when Europe went against the USA and was going to support Ukraine “until they have regained all their land,” but we have learned by now that words cost nothing.

In 2026, the USA started pushing all the buttons, and we do not know the outcome yet – right now there is a no-fly zone over El Paso, for example, so they are everywhere at once, the planners in the Pentagon must be popping omeprazole like crazy.

We have also seen a classic Russian-American trade-off with coercion,

First, Starlink was shut down.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/09/russia-scrambles-starlink-access-deactivated-elon-musk-space-x

And then RU citizens leave Iran.

China is bringing in more naval resources, so they are not part of the deal.

It has not escaped anyone that Russia is currently targeting all civil infrastructure they can reach in Ukraine, and Ukraine is doing the same to Russia.

Previously, Russia spared it because why destroy something you need when you have won the war was the logic.

So what does that tell us?

That now burning everything they can is it not unlikely that we are now seeing the typical Russian sore loser mentality we have seen so often before?

They know the war is soon over so they are trying to destroy as much as they can.

We also have an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive that has been devastating in two front sections and stabilizing in Pokrovsk.

At the fronts, I now use Project Owl instead of Deepstatemap as they are more accurate in times of UA counterattacks.

They differ now, but previously when this was up for discussion last autumn, both maps were the same, and it was only UA statements that it was not accurate, which were not fully supported by videos. Maps and videos corroborated each other

But now that UA has deployed its offensive strategic reserve and things are going very well, there are few reasons not to trust Project Owl.

Where it starts to get tricky, we assume that Ukraine will clean up with its strategic reserve, so we no longer need to comment on it even though we have several such areas.

RU is set to significantly increase its drone forces, but that just means that right now they are taking a beating and have understood how good this capability is and want to improve their own.

https://news.err.ee/1609937099/estonian-foreign-intelligence-russia-building-a-massive-drone-army

UA drone forces are starting to get organized and are making mincemeat of the Russian bastards.

Since drone forces cause the most losses for RU, maneuver brigades should have some rest except those at the front.

Yes, the new defense minister said that 200,000 had deserted and that they needed 2 million more, but the biggest problem is that the organization has formed around avoiding being at the front, but that does not apply to the highly motivated offensive strategic reserve.

This has to do with the fact that they could not rotate the units before and that they reinstated 80% of the wounded in service (according to UA themselves), so a first place was guaranteed disability or death.

RU has exactly the same problem, more than Ukraine, but they have had a larger elite and easier to replenish because they have also recruited worldwide.

Indeed, now the pipes are freezing in all cities in Ukraine and when they expand, they burst – flooding as soon as the temperature rises above zero.

Unfortunately, it looks like it will be cold in Ukraine for a while.

Yes, more is happening at the fronts, but RU continues with the shooting, UA holds back the shooting and uses drone weapons.

During UA counterattacks, they manage to keep losses down in a drone-saturated combat environment, and that was the major obstacle they needed to overcome.

Europe also seems to be providing Ukraine with the monetary support they need, even if the betrayal by the Belgians ruined some of it.

Terror bombing harms Russia as much as Ukraine, or even more because RU does not have the same ability to rebuild.

Yes, the frozen oligarch money would have been good if Ukraine had received it – then Putin would have had a hard time protecting himself against the oligarchs perhaps, but now it did not happen, which was the purpose of the counteroperation.

An increasingly desperate Russia will do more and more sabotage in Europe, threaten individuals, and in other ways make life difficult for us – Russia has never lost quietly, calmly, and dignified.

I still think it is cynical that Ukraine has had to bear exactly the whole burden with us on top, who also initially slowed down, but then the world is never fair, and when the big profit comes, everything is forgotten.

Zelensky, Budanov, others – what heroes.

The shooting… as one has been attacked by people claiming that UA soldiers are not among the best in the world at all, and today they are the only forces that can fight in a drone-saturated battlefield and have a loss ratio far above 1:3.

Try sending any European brigade into such an environment, and you will see a dead brigade, and right now Ukraine is training the foreign legion to learn that warfare.

Many incompetent small-time dictators have come and gone these four years – one can only hope that they realize themselves how wrong they were, but that is probably hoping for too much.

I get the impression that Ukraine is inflicting heavy losses on the Russian bastards at the fronts.

And they carry out their own counterattacks where needed, which always go well, and the loss rate is historically very good, so since it is their offensive strategic reserve, we can guess that it looks Azov-good.

North Vietnam won the war by taking 40 times the American losses, for example, and when this war started, RU had a staggering advantage, and Ukraine had barely any drone weapons to speak of – it was the shooting that decided.

After the activation of the strategic offensive reserve, I have completely stopped watching RU advances because they are one counterattack away from disappearing.

In Kupiansk, they talk about 1:27 in KIA but it has been like that before too, in KWIA it’s 1:5 or something like that. But it is rare in history that the attacking party, where there are two qualified opponents, achieves this ratio.

Ukraine could come out on top in this, provided Europe doesn’t let itself be talked down, but right now we have crawled back into the foxhole again.

Do you remember those who said there would be frozen fronts and then negotiated ceasefires – he M-something on the other blog who always knew it would end like this, and all those who knew there would be a ceasefire according to the Korean model.

There are clearly circles that have discussed this scenario and the USA has strived for it by all available means.

Now it’s quiet again, but my impression is that we are still heading towards a ceasefire, which would be devastating, but Ukraine does not want it.

The ball is in Europe’s court.

There was a bit of cut-and-paste in this post as too much has happened since I started writing it – hope it still works.

Just a reminder about paid subscriptions on Substack and the Swish payment on the website since MXT is now in urgent need after its loss in Bitcoin.

Regarding the loss in Bitcoin, it seems that economic warfare is in full swing and will also be discussed in a post, currently South Korea is dumping crypto, gold, and silver apparently, and Japan was a bit shaky before – we can assume that China being a wonder of economic stability is not true, but I need to delve into this a bit.

The global escalation is in full swing, and at some point, someone will launch a missile under acute stress and no currently living head of state can control the situation anymore.

A Ukrainian grand victory would probably cool things down a few degrees, but it seems that Europe doesn’t want that right now unless I missed something, our leaders have fallen silent.