Make sure to wear the newly acquired MES cap to show your support for Europe, wear it like a MES ✊
With the starting images, I’m trying to show the Ukrainians behind the news, the guy who, like you and me, suddenly finds himself in a trench somewhere in eastern Ukraine and has to sit there for two years, with the only way out being disability or death, and everything is random. If you stand in the way of this year’s biggest mech-fall, you do, and no preparations in the world are enough.
The Lions
First, one must post BREAKING NEWS, which was first presented in the world on Johan No.1 Bluesky yesterday after all the intel and established media, and a day after Erik14 😭 –
Ukraine has opened up a new attack vector in Kursk 40km west of the famous “bulge”.
Expected since they started on February 6th with their offensive operations, and if you have read these posts, you know that additional attack vectors along the northern front were to be expected. If you read these posts carefully, you will never be caught off guard by anything, always one step ahead.
If you have followed the posts, you also know that – Belarus, more attack vectors on the northern front, Dnepr, and openings on the fronts are in the cards – game on, Russian bastards 💥💥👊👊
Now I will leave this topic with my very own take on Trump and the peace negotiations, which no one has seriously marketed yet 😀 – there is no double play with Xi and Putin, but Trump tried to go in “American” style, hard as a great businessman (which he feels he is born to be and has natural talents for) to get the best deal an American president has achieved since Washington, at least.
And then on top of that, become a great peacemaker and get the US budget in order – a mix of Gandhi, Mandela, and Roosevelt type but better and more stylish.
In some things, he is not wrong at all – our politicians have not done excellently in many matters, and the tax collection is seen as party money in my opinion. There are reasons not to be completely satisfied as a citizen in Europe and the USA, as the voters showed in the USA and to some extent also show in Europe.
But that is OUR domestic policy, and even though a lot of Social Democratic politicians were in the USA campaigning for Harris, and exactly EVERYONE has an opinion on Trump’s domestic policy, Trump and JD Vance should stay far away from European domestic politics – which they don’t do at all. And they will have to face the consequences, as they should.
I have watched all the meetings and there are several trade delegations, so this was EXTREMELY carefully prepared, and then Trump chooses to throw away the script and freewheel with Hegseth and Vance.
This has already bounced back like a deflating balloon with a loud smack on the USA.
We have already seen and heard quite a bit of backtracking.
Trump preceded his negotiating groups who stood like idiots when Zelensky refused to sign the commodity agreement, and the EU has come out ABSOLUTELY hard in response.
That was absolutely not the purpose of Trump’s negotiation – he thought to bring home an extremely advantageous deal for the USA in Ukraine, achieve peace in Ukraine without lifting a finger, and that Europe would accept trade tariffs and higher costs after all the threats – and buy US weapons and oil.
But everyone except Trump seemed to understand that the commodity agreement was a trade-off for the Russians to be kicked out of eastern Ukraine feet first.
So what Trump has actually succeeded in is alienating the USA from Ukraine and Europe, but he has NOT really done any favors for Putin and Xi. What he is trying to do is give Putin a carrot so there will be a ceasefire and peace negotiations, so he can take all the credit for it.
So what will be the result of this absolute mess?
One guess is that the EU will significantly increase support, stand united behind Ukraine, take their mineral deal, and ensure that Ukraine joins the EU – all bad for Putin.
Another is that the USA just became weaker on the world stage – not entirely bad considering how extremely poorly Biden behaved and, above all, it gives the EU a chance to increase influence again.
The Nordic lion has already risen like a man in several tough statements. Our anxious neutrality and constant concessions to Russia are out with the bathwater.
So what are we complaining about really?
We should thank the gods that Trump is like a worse elephant in a very fragile glass house.
What I have also seen is that Zelensky and UA immediately approached the EU –
-the deal with the minerals goes to us.
-Zelensky is CLEAR about the consequences, the same as I posted in my entry the other day with a million Russians on the border to the Baltics.
-Zelensky has started taking the lead and wielding it.
-The Nordics stand strong (Denmark, Sweden, the Baltic states, and Finland) – very strong, and the lion has risen.
Then Zelensky sent his own negotiating delegation to China 😲
I think we can see this as a rather inexperienced attempt to play senior negotiator by Trump and JD Vance, and the predictable result was extremely embarrassing for them.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump changes course quite soon, actually, true to his habit.
With this, I want to emphasize that I don’t think we have seen the last of Trump, I believe he has inadvertently managed to steer in the right direction even though he absolutely did not intend to, and that the EU has suddenly started sharpening their knives and glaring menacingly towards the Russian direction, which we have hardly seen before in three years except from Finland and Macron.
Now there will be a major meeting in the EU, king-Macron is calling everyone with the jungle drums, and the USA did not receive an invitation card. Wonder how the aftermath is going in the USA administration right now 🤣🤣
And the rumor is that a HUGE aid package is in the works – RUMINT.
For me, Trump et al. is only interesting regarding the UA war, and I see no value in US domestic politics other than that it may be an opportunity for the EU to grow stronger at the expense of the USA, which is good for us, right?
Right now, I don’t see much downside, but of course, we’ll see what happens this week. Since the experts in all camps read these posts and shape their policies according to them, it is likely that I am right, even Trump gets it in his earlybird, and that he secretly bought a MES cap according to a reliable source 👍
So…
The EU should focus on Ukraine, stop Russian subversive activities and sabotage, go as hard against Putin as against Trump, and then respond eye-for-an-eye to Trump’s whims. In the end, the State Department and the US business community will parade him through Washington covered in tar and feathers if he doesn’t change his ways.
As is well known, I sounded the gong on February 6th that Ukraine had started offensive operations, and eventually the world’s experts will catch on and understand that UA has switched to offense and RU is beginning to be forced into defense.
However, we did not see that at all yesterday where RU wanted to appear strong even though they are weak and carried out violent mechanized attacks as we saw in MXT’s legendary post on johann1.se (which, by the way, is a world-leading website!) and through information on the battlefield established a casualty list. What few know is that he drives around in Ukraine with a flatbed scooter counting wrecks, the entire Extrude company is just a cover 😲
In Velyka Novosilka, there should be a UA counterattack soon because things are going backwards there.
But up in Northern Luhansk, RU has carried out a huge number of attacks and nothing is happening – it’s going poorly, plain and simple.
If this continues, I may need to revise my world-leading strategic analysis, but I’m pretty sure there’s a glitch in the curve. Putin wanted to send a signal to Ukraine in the only way he can – escalate the level of violence until it can’t go any further.
And when it can’t go any further, then it’s “Swan Lake” in black and white on TV according to a long fine tradition.
After this round of “peace talks,” I believe Ukraine will continue with its battle plan because the negotiations have yielded (so far!) nothing. There is absolutely ZERO value for Ukraine to stop fighting right now – only downside.
It is very important to understand that Ukraine has been receiving supplies for a long time, and since late autumn, the trains have started rolling again.
And with the redeployment of personnel from the shaft to the tip, they are filling up the brigades.
And they still have the motivation – they, more than anyone, can see how the Russian bastards are starting to run out of gas and how easily their initial positioning/reconnaissance offensives cut through the defense, battalion attacks against several RU brigades in defense on paper 💥💥
Yes, UA also conducts offensive operations in numerical inferiority unlike ALL units in the West claiming they are better, but this was something extra up in Kursk.
We were always supposed to attack with a 3:1 force advantage, and then we complain that Ukraine’s defense forces are weak, except for one person who claims it’s the world’s best infantry – you know who.
The weather is good – a few degrees below zero so they can drive over marshes and small streams that RU hasn’t mined, but not too cold.
But it’s too cold for RU, who are forced into temporary positions without heat – because heat means FPV drones…
It’s an EXCELLENT time for UA to go on the offensive, so we will see more.
So far, we have seen reconnaissance battles and “positioning battles” for further offensives or securing dominant terrain.
There has been activity on the northern front, eastern front, and even the southern front.
The only place that has been quiet is near the Dnieper.
Russia’s low point is now, they have (temporarily) run out of gas as we mentioned in previous posts if you look at the decreasing losses.
There are also rumors of many prisoners of war, apparently they have misplaced the link…
And at Pokrovsk, the situation is even a bit worrying for RU.
A lot of UA aircraft has arrived, they have received LV and plenty of 155mm shells now – newly manufactured.
Now that no one believes in this, we are hammering home the message – Ukraine has offensive capability, and there is more to come.
I am making my point again now with the support of Zelensky, who probably read johanno1.se before speaking, who knows – that IF there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, you will see NK and now Chinese (peacekeeping troops…) units along the entire UA border, and then a million Russian soldiers will be stationed in Belarus, the Baltics, and towards Finland – but the focus will be on the Baltics with the other units to tie up troops.
I expected this already last autumn but I guess Kursk threw a wrench in the works, but it is definitely underway.
NATO and the EU will be tested, and our willingness to RECLAIM a few hundred hectares of farmland in eastern Estonia when Putin’s influence operation about ETERNAL PEACE reverberates throughout Europe and the far left, far right, and Islamists become the biggest advocates for peace along with some familiar figures we all know + peace movements and environmental movements.
I don’t think we are ready for this yet, so the easiest thing to do is to give Ukraine what they need to defeat Russia, take Belarus, and demilitarize Kaliningrad.
Then, when internal struggles to become clan leader in Russia spread, calm will settle in Europe, and we will have the eternal peace that Putin’s influence operation promised us.
I intend to return with UA losses and the support they have received in a post, but no one is really interested anymore – it used to be front-page news all the time. I saw that a bunch of Patria vehicles are coming, a tank from the UK, and more YPRs from the Dutch.
I have also noted that BMP-1 and BTR-60, as well as the French Renault cars, have all had the latest turret/weapon station from Ukraine’s excellent arms industry welded on.
Remo is running at full speed, that’s my guess.
It’s hard not to be -positive – positive indeed 👍
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Russian losses 2025-02-17
1530 KWIA
16 Tanks
52 APVs (Armored Personnel Vehicles)
37 Artillery systems
128 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
149 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lidz4goquk2f
Thank you Matsextrude. Noting horrifying amounts of soft and tall strv and high knee creases.
Exciting, the violent Russian suicide attempts seem to have stayed at bay until day 2 👍
👍👍👍
I am a bit cautiously positive. Perfect that they are positioned up by Kursk (although I would have liked to see them go even further west/north to further divide the Russians). Ukraine has also had some other successes as you mention.
At the same time, it is alarming that the Russians are still advancing one field at a time in several places. Hopefully, this is the last gasp we see. There are a lot of complaints from Russian soldiers now as well as videos where they commit suicide, which is an indication of how bad things are.
Otherwise, things look really bad for Ukraine here, time to withdraw. Maybe not strategically important, but they have tied up Russian troops for a long time and there is a risk that Kostiantynopil will be taken.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/47.9853260/37.1173096
It stands and weighs on several fronts. Kursk is probably also moving backwards if you count square kilometers? An exciting week….. again….. first the meeting in France and then hopefully if the situation at the front is the same and the Russians are advancing or if Ukraine has new energy and is starting to turn the front movements.
Not so worried. It’s not square meters that count, but the ability to wage war. If the cost, in all respects, becomes too high, it will eventually not work out, not even for the Russians. Then it may take longer than Guru No.1 estimates. – However, if there is a ramp-up in Europe with support in all forms, preferably military and on-site, it can escalate quickly.
Yes, it’s starting to be time to nest in there 😁
Have you read a positive pimple (as someone wrote)?
Polrovsk becomes the Russians’ grave, it looks dark on the Norrköping substitute bench
I have been waiting for the Russians’ culmination point since they started in October 2023, but every time it seems like they are losing momentum, they manage to push forward. Frustrating. At some point, their enormous losses must start affecting their combat capability, and I really hope we are getting closer.
I really hope that Pokrovsk will be their downfall.
A giant frozen mass grave with drone-killed Russians 💥💥💥
Yes, you got even more direct positive feedback!
Due to Putte’s strong will to negotiate, we can see that things are not looking good.
RyZzen is special in his way of thinking. Would like to have some sharp comments there?
Many are shouting that we don’t need the USA and that Europe would fare better without the USA than with an ally who doesn’t act like an ally. However, in 2024, the USA provided 40% of all support to Ukraine. If Europe finds its backbone, we might be able to close some of the gap that a potential US withdrawal would mean for Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean Ukraine will be better equipped; they will receive less material. However, support will come from reliable (well…) allied countries on the same continent. I still don’t believe that the war will be decided in the trenches but in each country’s budget. As long as Ukraine receives as much money from the West as in 2024 (again, it will be difficult without the USA), I don’t think Russia will make it through 2025.
By the way, did you notice that there was a politician who thought JD Vance was speaking the truth and gave a good speech? Guess which Swedish closet fascist it was?
Time for Johan No. 1 to once again list all the materials available in Europe’s warehouse that could be shipped if we only wanted to, instead of giving/selling new production.
It would definitely be better if the USA continued to support Ukraine as before (or of course even significantly more than that). It doesn’t look good now, but of course we don’t know where it will end. If the USA steps back, it will be tough and I really hope that Europe can step up.
Of course, Vance doesn’t think that Russia’s interference in other countries’ elections is a problem, they helped Trump to power so he is of course satisfied. He probably prefers to see the far right win elections in every European country, as they are closest to Trump.
MAGA usually praises Hungary as a role model and many of them look up to Putin. It seems to be the same among the far right in Europe. Putin is a role model.
Apart from that, Vance’s message is probably similar to what those on the far right have had success with, so it’s perhaps not surprising if they think he is right.
MaxExtrude, I agree with everything you write. Jimmy tried to score some points here and show solidarity with Putin, Le Pen, and Orban who thrive on this kind of thing. The question is whether this appeals to the SD’s following in Sweden?
That there are many on the right who agree with Jimmy and Vance, I am quite sure of. From what I see on social media, there are quite a few Sweden Democrats and “Swedophiles” who are against Ukraine and spread Russian propaganda (the left is not seen doing it to the same extent, they focus on the Israel/Palestine issue instead, except for a few peace activists). Then there are probably quite a few of those accounts that you can’t really be sure if they are regular people or just part of the Russian propaganda. Many accounts are not clear about being Sweden Democrats even though you understand it when you read what they share and write. In any case, this is of course anecdotal based on how I perceive it, I haven’t collected links or counted accounts, etc.
The Sweden Democrats have clearly stated that they stand on Ukraine’s side, but whether they really stand for it or if it’s just because the support for Ukraine is so strong among Swedes is difficult to determine. They are primarily a populist single-issue party (just like their counterpart the Green Party).
Looking at the Sweden Democrats’ voters, I believe that the majority probably stand on Ukraine’s side. The core of the Sweden Democrats may think differently, and as other parties on the right increasingly openly take Russia’s side, they may find it difficult to choose.
If support for Ukraine starts to wane among regular people, the Sweden Democrats may be the first party to change course, simply because the arguments that Trump put forward during the election campaign work just as well here. “We can’t afford to support Ukraine anymore, we have to solve our own problems first, the killing must stop, we can’t win against Russia, etc., etc.”
I’m not at all sure that they can make that U-turn without losing too much credibility, and as I said, I don’t think the majority of their voters are ready to throw Ukraine under the bus. On the other hand, if it drags on, they certainly have the opportunity to influence in that direction and get people to change their minds. Support for Ukraine has slowly decreased in the USA and is surely largely due to Trump and MAGA (and Russia) constantly working against Ukraine. It can happen here too. If the USA completely steps back, that can also be an argument to use. “Look, the USA realizes that it’s pointless, and without the USA, it will never be possible to defeat Russia.”
We’ll see, of course, I hope that the vast majority of Sweden Democrats wholeheartedly and honestly stand on Ukraine’s side. That they see immigration as the biggest threat is nothing new.
MatsExtrude, very well summarized! SD has changed its stance on several major issues that they don’t really support, but where public opinion has made it very difficult to pursue a different line; I primarily think of the EU and NATO. Immigration is becoming increasingly difficult for SD to score points on since we practically have no immigration to Sweden anymore. However, integration can still be their flagship issue. They are probably struggling a bit to find something to create divisions in Sweden that they can thrive on. I see Jimmy’s statement as a “test” on his part, and if it doesn’t receive a positive response from the SD voter base, I don’t think we will hear more about it.
I know that we primarily discuss Ukraine here, but that was a bit TOO inaccurate, so I have to react.
Mats wrote: “since in practice we no longer have any immigration to Sweden”
94,000 granted residence permits in 2024, what do you call that? Subtract studies, work, and EU/EEA (even though it can hide a little bit of anything, not least under “labor market”) and there are still more than 40,000 left.
https://www.migrationsverket.se/Om-Migrationsverket/Statistik/Beviljade-uppehallstillstand-oversikter.html
Regarding the issue of right-wing extremists and their relationship with Russia:
“Germany’s AFD seeks ‘very good relations’ with Russia – co-leader”
“Germany needs to restore relations with Russia for the sake of the nation’s economic well-being, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has said. Antagonizing Moscow has brought the country nothing but trouble, she told Bild tabloid in an interview published on Sunday.”
I will not link as it comes from Russia Today.
Here in Sweden, support for Ukraine is strong, so no one dares to go as far as the AFD.
MatsExtrude,
AFD really got a strong response in the latest debate, which was nice. Images from the war were shown, and AFD was questioned if this was really what they were willing to support when cozying up to Putin. According to viewers, AFD lost the debate, but it is highly uncertain if AFD supporters care to watch these debates…
I think you are absolutely right. That’s what’s scary. One gains followers despite performing poorly and having no solutions. Anyone who has bothered to watch a couple of Trump’s speeches couldn’t possibly think he is a suitable president.
It is probably partly due to a strong propaganda machine where, through influencers, mainstream media, and trolls, they manage to break through the noise with short messages that resonate with those who vote, or on the contrary, by smearing and ridiculing opponents.
But it can get people who vote for other parties to make their way to the ballot boxes. Elections are very much about getting people off the couch.
JD Vance’s speech may not have really contained what the media claims. Many thought it was essentially good, far beyond fascist circles.
Check it out for yourselves and judge afterwards (it’s only 20 minutes). Please avoid mudslinging and instead point out what was problematic in the speech, if anyone wants to criticize.
Is Jens Stoltenberg a Trumpist and Putinist?
Stoltenberg’s four points about Trump are as follows:
– His most important message at the time was that Europe must invest more in defense. That was correct.
– The second thing he was right about was that it was dangerous to be so dependent on Russian gas. He was right.
– The third thing Trump said was that we must understand that China’s growth was a security challenge. NATO did not believe that then, but the whole of NATO believes it now.
– Fourth, which may be surprising to many, it was under Trump that Ukraine received military support in the form of weapons for the first time.
One might think that the USA has some valid points when it comes to criticizing the wimps in Europe who have been hitching a ride on the USA’s defense budget and have themselves failed to fulfill commitments they have signed. One might also think that other things that were said are completely messed up. It’s possible to think both at the same time!
Link:
https://marcusoscarsson.se/jens-stoltenberg-varnar-donald-trump-hade-ratt/
Ehhh….. I have seen the speech and actually don’t understand which parts you thought were good, but please elaborate on what appealed to you?
It wasn’t me who smeared, combined it with “fascist,” so start explaining. – I don’t understand what visiting AFD has to do with the speech. It was probably a clear mark against Ålen, that he is a former.
The analyst, you are aware that of all party leaders that JD Vance could have met, he chose AFD. Sad with an ally who, just like the archenemy Russia, tries to sow division and discord. That’s not really the response one expects from an ally.
EU must take responsibility themselves and, among other things, upgrade, right? One should respect democracy and freedom of speech, right?
I believe the following has happened –
For some reason, the USA started sending material after the election on November 5th, and Trump did not stop it, so it has continued from November to February.
However, the USA has apparently NOT provided any new support packages.
They themselves claim that they have until the end of the year, kind of.
Now it’s just as you write, that the EU must pick up the baton and not stumble right away – there is now a summit that King Macron has called for, and there are rumors about this package.
And the arms industry in Europe has now started up.
I think it will go well.
But yes, it would be best if the USA and the EU were pulling in the same direction, this is not great.
I saw his statement, he should have thought twice, but ended up in the right place with Russia.
The USA might not send [troops] because Trump wants to be the peace negotiator? After all, he does want to get Putin to the negotiating table.
I see a fairly high likelihood that the negotiations will break down, and that is when the actions of the USA will come into play. So, all hope is not lost, Trump himself has previously said that he will arm Ukraine to the teeth (Europe pays) if Putin does not agree to peace talks, and a leaked proposal was to initiate a ceasefire that would give Russia the opportunity to pack up and leave Ukraine.
But Trump says a lot, and you can’t always trust all leaks…
There is a fairly high probability that Trump will make a U-turn in the not too distant future 😀
Johan, you do travel quite a lot. Do you have to pay extra to bring that extremely large brain with you?
I have insured it for ten million to be on the safe side 👍
Recommend Jake Broe’s latest, the first half covers Trump and Europe. Brief summary: Trump has no plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSZPGexTpTA
His Q&A was also interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wDrCIVVFM4
Jake Broe is good 👍
Revealing when Jimmy and the Sweden Democrats show their true colors. However, very sad!
https://omni.se/akesson-om-jd-vances-tal-befriande-att-hora/a/LMQkGp
He did, however, end up being right when it came to Russia, I saw.
Well, it might have been appropriate to polish the statement a bit.
Refreshing when Jimmy and the Sweden Democrats show their true colors. However, very sad when we need unity in Europe.
https://omni.se/akesson-om-jd-vances-tal-befriande-att-hora/a/LMQkGp
Considering that the US support may possibly stop coming to Ukraine, it is important that Ukraine uses the support in a good way. This type of “revelations” is not good as it can lead to a negative reaction in the US and Europe that Ukraine is wasting the support they receive and that it is not being used effectively. This can unfortunately be turned into very harmful “news” by Russian propaganda.
https://omni.se/uppgifter-nato-tycker-att-ukraina-slosar-dyra-vapen/a/kwPdpk
Sounds almost like Russian propaganda. I wonder who the British security sources are? Could it just be an anonymous British soldier?
A bit like when it’s reported that Ukraine is selling the weapons they receive.
Of course, it’s not good at all if it’s true, wasting ammunition and equipment is not a winning concept. At the same time, when you’re standing there defending yourself or attacking, it’s probably easy to go all out with what you have.
By the way, there’s already an article on Russia Today so the Russians have picked up on it.
I have been following him for a while and there have been well-reported sources before, but things may have changed. Since there is an information blockade in Kursk, not much information is coming out other than from Russian bloggers. I also read the controversial Kenneth Gregg today and he is very positive. Above all, the F16 planes seem to be working more offensively now.
Äsch….. these intermittent comments while working sometimes land wrong. The above response was completely wrong 🙁
I agree that this “news” could be Russian propaganda. They are very skilled at this!
The timing of the article’s publication suggests Russian influence.
The issue may have been several years old and has likely been resolved. To my knowledge, there has been a requirement for the AU to report on how all weapons have been used. This has been done more or less since the first shipments of weapons.
What a JOKE
Just about ALL of the USA’s latest wars they have absolutely SPLURGED on with the most expensive they have – robots, aircraft, heavy vehicles and more.
Ukraine is fighting with old tanks from the 60s and their own drones.
I have always liked Gregg, he adds a puzzle piece of information that is often good.
The West should produce larger volumes cheaper instead of half-million-dollar grenades made of platinum.
There he says 30% and not 40%.Biden was a real goat!
Good input about number 47 in my opinion. It was mentioned on SVT yesterday that the Americans have posed a number of questions to European countries where they, among other things, have the opportunity to express how they want to help guarantee Ukraine’s security. Stubb makes a statement and argues that it is a good opportunity for Europe to come together and decide what a response should look like, united.
I guess Paris will act on this point as well.
I also think that number 47 with his forwards will discover that his messianic mission in Saudi Arabia is running into obstacles. And that the messages from the USA will then become clearer and more unified.
Europe is starting to get its act together (finally) and yes, we can increase our geopolitical influence at their expense.
Ukraine is taking the lead! ✊🏻🌟
Stubb has certain qualities. Relative plain language and a certain backbone are two of them.
Europe has read this thread and embraced MES ✊✊✊
Yes, I thought it was an interesting angle on Trump’s negotiations that no one really pursues.
There are some who support it, but Trump himself becomes a very red flag for many, and the analysis follows accordingly.
Mats, yesterday you asked about the Ukrainian drone attacks:
“Ukrainian UAVs strike the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in the Krasnodar region at night.
❗️This is the largest station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which provides the main oil export from Kazakhstan. Last year, 63 million tons of oil were shipped through CPC.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lieebyvh522b
“Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai: its capacity is about 6.6 million tons of oil per year, – Head of CPD Kovalenko
The plant specializes in the production of fuel, fuel oil, gas oil and other petroleum products.”
Thank you!
Well, I was a bit impatient and unfair and probably demanded a bit too much from Ukraine here. One always wants more!
That was a real blow and a good goal to prioritize. Ukraine has targeted the pumping stations before. I hope the attack also caused a lot of chaos that will take a long time to repair!
Ideally, of course, one would see that they could carry out successful attacks every night, but both production and planning probably have difficulty keeping up with that pace.
Well, the attacks now are probably difficult to repair, as there are absolutely enormous fireballs where everything melts.
Yes, two raffs exploded in a very violent puff of smoke 💥💥💥💥💥💥
Extremely violent
Great death
Visited old Cornucopia and oh my, what a cacophony of girls screaming. I left when I felt the environment was a mix between ETC and Bamse. But right now the compass is spinning in several directions, DT’s moves in different directions are hard to interpret, which of course is the intention.
Feels good that UA has some momentum and RU has sand in its eyes. When daddy USA is going to bring order to the nursery, the one who has snatched the most toys wins.
It’s no longer possible to read the comments on Cornu, it just makes you tired. Suspect a lot of trolling is one reason. The blogger has also become a bit too capricious, sarcastic, and rabid in political matters, so the comments reflect that on those days it happens. Unfortunately.
Fundamentally, the blog is very good and must be read, but the judgment in politics is often wrong and leads to the wrong focus.
PDS, this was a fantastic phrase with more truth than what may be fun for the kindergarten teachers in Europe: “When daddy USA is going to create order in the nursery, the one who has snatched the most toys wins.”
I think it’s important to have a pre-against discussion that is civil, but it didn’t go well there at all as we all know.
Erik14 is good at posting there but almost alone in posting relevant information 😀
I agree, but unfortunately it seems that some with poor impulse control have also found their way here. What is it that makes them unable to let go of the USA and SD and discuss what can instead be done for Ukraine, Sweden, and the EU?
Then it was 06:25 here and many exciting comments.
Have a new driver so the first surprise of the week will be if he shows up at all.
Will be back shortly
It’s quiet about Kursk, but I follow SkruffyTales on YouTube, who is credible, and he has been warning for a while about worse positions for Ukraine.
Today: “Russia appears to have secured an extremely vital river-crossing, putting them in a position to go after the main supply-route that Ukraine relies upon to maintain operations within Kursk Oblast.”
Has anyone heard anything else?
No not yet but there are only two ways in there – have to check how it goes up there
Just read about a new attack vector and got excited
Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE are working on sketching an alternative to Donald Trump’s plan to transform Gaza into “Mar-el-Gaza”, where they would provide the financing.
The condition is that Palestinians are allowed to remain in Gaza.
The problem still lies with Hamas and their relationship with Iran. One can build as much as they want in Gaza, but as long as Hamas is involved, there will be no peace.
It probably also requires that some Arab states, with troops/police, guarantee a government free from Iranian influence.
In Libya, they have apparently broken the back of Hezbollah, so it is definitely possible to get rid of Hamas, probably with a bit of luck.
An Italian artist is close to a peace concert in Moscow in August.
Then we will know Putin’s plan 😁
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3liemyyix7c2g
Now Steneegard has called for a crisis meeting about the SE troop in Ukraine.
A first test to see how much Putin can slow down
Question: When we talk about a “peacekeeping force,” to me it sounds like we are neutral and should monitor so that no one breaks any agreements. However, Russia will hardly see us as neutral but rather as the enemy who has sent lots of weapons to Ukraine. So even if we drown ourselves in UN flags and wear triple blue UN helmets, we still risk getting a grenade in the head or an FPV drone in the stomach. Or is it me who should redefine what a peacekeeping force is?
Another suggestion would be for countries like India, Egypt, Turkey, Switzerland, Mexico, Peru, etc., to send troops to monitor a demilitarized zone that extends 3 miles on each side of the border.
I will bring it up tomorrow that it is unclear what is meant –
If they come towards Belarus and take over rear functions, Ukraine can release another half a million – perfect.
If there is a ceasefire and then “peacekeeping troops” along the borders, it’s zero and advantage Russia.
Because when Russia attacks again, these peacekeeping troops will leave instead of being shot down.
But yes, a demilitarized zone that is mined, cleared, fenced, and then fortified by a combined force would probably be an alternative, but the amount of fieldwork and then the world’s effort with troops will probably never happen other than as a good proposal.
False sense of security but also a quick fix that is attractive to politicians
If I understand correctly, she means that Sweden risks not being seen as neutral.
I note that the exact same argument was used in the debate between Merz and AfD’s leader on German TV. I can add that Merz was very clear that no, we (Germany) are not neutral towards the Moscow regime, we are defending our democracy.
Did you also see that UA is now fighting on the left bank of the Dnieper again
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lidotrudes2d
Interesting, I hope that Ukraine can absorb the blows and move forward in the coming days. The Moscow Empire must have given orders for maximum effort now.
“Territorial concessions by Russia in the negotiations on Ukraine are out of the question,” – Russian foreign minister Lavrov
“There can be no talk about the possibility of territorial concessions to Ukraine in the settlement process… Territorial concessions were made to Ukraine by the USSR,” he said”
Trump tried the easy way – let Russia keep what they have taken and compensate Ukraine instead. But he went too hard and wanted the EU to compensate and for the USA to receive a lot of minerals as a thank you for giving away the country.
Feels pretty stuck now and then the only thing left is to keep going until Lavrov is sitting there in the UN crying and screaming to at least keep Moscow.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lieleo4lw22p
hahaha, spot on 😂
It was interesting. So now the Moscow regime claims that it is not possible to give territory to Ukraine due to formal reasons 😂.
There is a lot of discussion right now about whether ryz can attack one or more NATO countries.
The main counterargument is usually that they barely have any personnel or equipment left, and also that orchträsk’s economy is on a steep downward slope.
Completely correct.
But, we are forgetting one thing; Xina.
The NK soldiers currently deployed are probably more of a trial balloon – can soldiers be “disguised” as a different nationality? The real question is, which nationality?
We in the Western world have a bit of difficulty distinguishing (okay, I might be joking, forgive me if so) between different Asian ethnic groups, so what’s to say we can tell the difference between Xinese and North Koreans? What I mean is that Xina’s (future) involvement will be disguised as “North Koreans.”
The fact that Zelenskyy as well as Denmark’s intelligence service say that the Moscow state could potentially attack EU countries within just a few years, suggests that maybe they know more than they are letting on?
So, there is actually a real risk that Xina will actively participate as a belligerent in such actions -, disguised as “North Koreans” in the ryz army.
In summary, with the help of Xina, the Moscow state will carry out attacks against EU/NATO countries in a very short time, perhaps within 1-2 years.
This is what we must prepare for.
Of course, it’s not entirely impossible, but the question is whether China would really dare to do it. Now, maybe Trump will act differently, but the US sees China as its enemy and has already threatened with sanctions that have hit China hard.
The USA and Europe together form a much larger market for China than Russia. A large part of China’s economic growth depends on exports to the West. Would they really risk that to help Russia with soldiers so they can attack more European countries?
I believe that China is more interested in stability, even though they probably prefer that the US stays out of the war.
(However, the US would probably be happy to attack Greenland so that China can attack Taiwan).
Welcome (I think?) to the thread and you are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT about it –
At the first ceasefire/peace, NK and China will fortify the border against Ukraine and then suddenly release a million Russians from the fronts.
They will then immediately move towards Belarus, the Baltics, and Finland with a focus on the Baltics.
Chinese troops will also be present in Belarus but only to tie up forces.
Then RU will enter in a cloud of drones and take some miles of farmland in the Baltics that barely have any defense.
Then they will defend behind some river, set up mines, deploy their elite air force, LV, and threaten with nuclear war and wait to see what NATO does.
What is the downside?
In the worst case scenario, two battered army corps will retreat to Russia but NATO will NEVER invade Russia.
So it will definitely happen and it will come shortly after a ceasefire – high risk this.
All in all, China and North Korea are not attacking Europe, but they are relieving Russia in Ukraine.
Det låter mer troligt.
I have been to China about twenty times, and for someone who is not familiar, it can be difficult to see the differences, but you learn as there are significant differences even within China, just like in Europe.
The problem with a false flag attack from North Korea is that they do not border us, and it should be logically impossible for them to occupy any territory in Europe. Allowing them to gather troops in, for example, Belarus to launch an attack on, for example, Poland would not be appreciated, and Belarus would immediately be drawn into the war. Attacking through Belarus works when the Russians do it against a non-NATO country.
The Russians do not reason like we do. Not about what is risky, not about what is costly, and not about what is considered successful.
Listen to Oscar Jonsson with Max Villman (Max Tänt 65 on Youtube or podcast) who describes how the Russians perceive success in chaos and do not view risk or cost the way we do. At all. – Influence, power, and control are the only things that matter. (By all means, listen again to Gudrun Persson at Folk och Försvar now in January, also on Youtube.)
Add the fact that the Moscow state is a proven imperialist state, for real, and the conclusion is that they always have to be kept in check with military force. The West/we don’t seem to fully understand that yet, despite all the evidence right in front of us! The Cold War worked, for a reason. Our grandparents/parents/predecessors did not engage in wishful thinking and were therefore smarter than we are. Why isn’t that said in the debate, an obvious lesson just 50 years away??
The West/we continue to engage in wishful thinking and believe that Russian rationality and logic have anything to do with how we perceive ourselves. Therefore, there will be even more attacks on neighbors (they are ongoing now), not just some posturing in the Baltic Sea, trolls on the internet, etc., but more and more serious until that track is exhausted (met with military force, forcefully and persistently). Then the Russians change tactics and do something else that leads towards the goal: influence, power, and control.
Repeat. Repeat again.
So I am extremely pessimistic, even for Sweden and in the near future (within 10 years), especially if the Russians don’t get a serious beating in UA (within 3 years). – Perhaps Biden-USA had the right strategy (horrible thought), that the Russians must bleed out properly before they lose, otherwise the problem will just shift to the Baltics, Finland, somewhere, the Middle East, or Africa. (If that was indeed the Biden strategy…)
Chinese “peacekeeping” troops along the entire border of Ukraine are not illegal, not escalating, and not a threat to either NATO or the EU.
BUT…
It would free up all Russian forces to cause trouble in the Baltic states.
UA is probably trying with its delegations in China to prevent that, I don’t know, but the day the entire RU defense force can be deployed against eastern EU will not be super easy for the EU to handle.
I also believe that China would be able to send troops to Belarus for “anti-terrorism exercises” or as some kind of police?
Then the big question is whether Russia wants this and trusts China?
Trump is a negotiator who wants to achieve quick and clear results. The result is achieved through several alternative paths forward. That’s not how politicians operate.
Trump always starts the negotiation with a lowball offer – to shock the counterpart. Like “negotiate with Putin yourself” plus Vance’s speech about how the EU must take its own responsibility and support Ukraine in winning the war.
The partial result was achieved: the EU became upset and immediately looks into more support packages and strengthening defense budgets.
So, what will the negotiation with Putin lead to? Nothing until the EU is fully “committed to” expanded support for Ukraine and stronger defense budgets. After that, the negotiation with Putin happens to collapse when Ukraine drums on and defeats Russia. For Trump, Putin is of little interest other than as a pawn against China.
Yes, he clearly does not follow diplomacy’s A-Z at all and is not the least bit cautious.
I am currently leaning towards the idea that he did not anticipate this outcome, but of course it may be that he is leading a group of preschool children to where he wants – we will probably soon see that because now his mineral deal went up in smoke, for example, and the EU is ready to level Russia to the ground.
Either he will lean back with a satisfied smile or he will start calling the EU an aggressor.
Biden hit HARD on all attempts by the EU to increase the pace in Russia, we know that.
It’s always good to try to look at things from different perspectives and not always let the initial emotions dictate.
Trump has made some attacks against various countries, and I will try to look at it from his perspective, that the main problem for the USA is the Chinese expansion and not some of the more bizarre theories that are sometimes encountered.
Ukraine
The USA considers this to be in Europe’s backyard and that we have not taken enough responsibility for our and Ukraine’s security. If Europe wants to include Ukraine in the EU, then we also have to pay for this. Trump would surely be pleased if Europe bore the future cost and the USA could be the supplier of weapons that we pay for.
Panama
The French made a failed attempt to build the canal.
After Colombia was about to invade Panama, they reached an agreement in 1903 with the USA to build the canal and that the USA would also get an 8 km wide zone to protect the canal.
Jimmy Carter decided in 1977 that the canal would be transferred to Panama, which Reagan, among others, opposed as the canal is important for being able to regroup the American fleet, which was the main reason the canal was built in the first place. The problem that has now arisen from the American point of view is that Panama has approached China. Chinese companies control important parts of the canal and could easily shut it down if they wanted to make it difficult for the American fleet to regroup from the Atlantic to, for example, the South China Sea and Taiwan. An acceptable solution from the American side would probably be for Panama to expel the Chinese and either manage the canal themselves or with American companies.
Greenland
An area rich in minerals and with a strategically important location. Just under 50,000 inhabitants, some self-governance but still part of Denmark. Greenland has been promised self-governance when they feel ready for it.
Greenlandic authorities would also be in desperate need to fill the gaps left by the Danish budget support, which currently accounts for about half of the island’s GDP.
China has started extensive mining and also wants to build airports and research stations on the island. A development that risks escalating if Greenland becomes independent and is in need of foreign capital. It may be difficult for the Greenlanders to resist China if they are allowed to control its economy in the future.
Mette and Trump will probably have to find a common solution that benefits both countries and the inhabitants of Greenland.
It was interesting that China is moving forward and sniffing around Greenland, putting the outcome of Trump in a different light 😲
China is the main adversary of the USA and Iran is not highly regarded. I don’t really know what the USA thinks about North Korea, they seem to be the world’s loose cannon. Why would the USA make deals with a country (RU) that has their enemy as an ally? Is it “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” or what? It’s so damn messy right now that soon you won’t be able to see any kind of thread in anything.
I was thinking about predicting the future for the next few years like this one afternoon in sunny Skåne. Not as a self-proclaimed expert but more as a reflection on how I think things seem right now.
There will not be peace in 2025, however, there will be a frozen front ceasefire similar to after RU’s invasion in 2014. The USA will be furious because they will appear deceived by RU (and China), sanctions will get tougher against RU and tariffs against China. RU’s economy will collapse and a low-intensity civil war will begin before 2030, maybe as early as 2027. Here, the UA has a chance to kick out RU and “close the border,” maybe build a wall?! I think many of the old -stan states will take the opportunity to distance themselves from RU. There are probably some that will end up hanging from a lamppost. There will be a new world order but not the one Putin is aiming for.
China will face economic difficulties, they already are, as someone wrote, the USA and EU are important markets and depend on us. The EU will realize that it must start taking care of its own house and become more self-sufficient. China’s economy will start to crack. The EU should return to its origins, we are very different, but we can cooperate across certain boundaries. But not everything can be harmonized. I am skeptical about a common defense, not the idea itself, but will it work at all? You can see how it has gone with the percentage that should go to NATO. I believe the UK will seek to return to the EU in a couple of elections when it realizes that the USA is no longer a good trading partner.
Iran’s mullah regime will collapse soon, maybe even this year but definitely by 2026. May a new Daesh not arise and spread death and destruction again. RU will not be able to. What happens in Syria is a big question mark right now, the enemy’s enemy, etc…
The Israel-Hamas conflict depends solely on what happens in Iran, maybe one can start with the Abraham Accords 2.0 but it will take time.
Regardless, the USA will not be the same after around 2050. The country’s heyday is over and there will be a painful dissolution of the country. The USA will not leave NATO until this dissolution, but it will not be the world’s police force intervening everywhere. They will be busy with their own problems and the ongoing polarization.
As usual, the future is both frightening and exciting.
I’m chiming in from a scorching hot Caribbean.
We might very well be heading towards a ceasefire here as it is an attractive “quick-fix” for weak leaders – temporarily solves the problem.
My opinion is that Ukraine has just started the offensive that could decide the war, but with the constant caveat that the West must not allow itself to be talked down.
Despite everything, Ukraine has been trying to deal with Russia since 2014 and I believe RU has already broken more than 20 agreements.
So Ukraine will only agree to a ceasefire if they are forced to.
My thoughts on Trump will soon be confirmed or refuted – probably within weeks.
I’m a bit worried that I have to write about the UA war until 2030 now 😀
Yes – Iran is definitely in its final stages, the citizens have had enough.
“Why would the USA make a deal with a country (RU) that has their enemy as an ally?”
To prevent Russia from selling cheap energy and cheap minerals to China. Then China will become an even greater threat to the USA.
It would be a real success if they exchanged natural resources for 10,000 tanks, 20,000 armored vehicles, 30,000 howitzers, ammunition, and drones in heaps, China knows how to produce things…
This is what is difficult about this conflict, you have to think in many steps and at each step there are several alternatives. And now you have described that there can be a bright spot even with a frozen front, even more outcomes! 🙂
RU will not be able to help them, it shall be.
I have looked in here a few times before I finally took the step and registered. Very nice to receive the world-leading Johannite updates in commentable form again!
But every time I’ve looked in, there has also been some complaining on LW’s blog among the comments. Unfortunate and unnecessary, I think. The last thing the tip of the spear needs is internal division, right? And none of us would be so engaged in the Ukraine issue without LW, I hope we can all agree on that. Those who do not want to read or write there can of course avoid it. Isn’t that good enough, without complaints?
Nice that you found your way here Borjesson – welcome ✊✊
The comment section is really the central part of the site and what I missed with Bluesky and Substack, they have diabolical comment sections.
It’s okay to praise LW’s blog in here as well, not so many prohibitions 😀
Do you think LW is in here complaining about the blog because he is an advertising genius and has figured out that all advertising is good advertising 😲
But yes, informed posts about the ua war are the gems that drive the theses forward and I think there has been quite a lot of that even though Trump’s latest negotiation round turned into a longer discussion.
Anyway, nice that you registered – did it go smoothly?
Thank you! 🙂
It was super easy! And my gravatar came along without me having to do anything. (It’s linked to the email address, I think.)
For my part, I completely agree with you. I have no issues with LW and Cornucopia or the writers there myself. LW has contributed immensely to the cause of Ukraine and deserves all the credit for it.
Removing posts and blocking people is not that strange. Why allow space for things one does not find relevant or cannot stand for?
I can understand if it annoys those who do not share LW’s values and opinions, but it is his blog and only he can decide where he believes the line should be drawn. Complaining about LW does not contribute to the cause of Ukraine.
Please note (best to be clear) it does not mean that I want to see any ban on criticizing LW, everyone does as they please, but I see no point in it.
Agreed! LW has done a lot of fantastic work during, and before, the full-scale invasion!
LW’s blog itself is probably not the problem, he trawls the internet and presents information that you wouldn’t otherwise find through regular channels.
It’s certain commentators who, at a given signal, come and talk about how reality is and how Trump thinks, and how wrong everyone is who wants to turn and twist it. They have decided what is right and what is wrong, black or white, and scare off those who want to take a step back and try to see it from a larger perspective.
I see these as influence operators who want to prevent open discussion. It’s life-threatening.
Found this: https://www.ebay.com/itm/266632051725?_skw=chinese+surplus+uniform&itmmeta=01JMA57R8BFRXK8HBN6Z8W4G7W&hash=item3e14823c0d:g:h2oAAOSwv8plsHqg&itmprp=enc%3AAQAKAAAA8FkggFvd1GGDu0w3yXCmi1dQV%2FqABG1YyqavoYHFhempIPQsCGdK5fZKb53nQuCkAQuqK%2B8I0S%2F31GQMtBgmTGBc0AAnGxm%2BgfdnSgEcMvkFJSysmGIAKRvau5JYkGWWgApkw8kuKPl1XTQT79WpqJRdBteOWXNzKCV8Z%2BErJVoPEWghj8RlzUqb6a0iX343r0s%2FckPnUsube7NmzggIgIx%2FRcd3ORvqN5xYu6D6G8UuDYRCqw%2Bc81m%2FpcUNlDpQlF7gGMYpaBf0iU0TWpuidTXg2KGSngDe63HI38bUPeqcZD6sxwbcgkZygOxAd1%2BPXg%3D%3D%7Ctkp%3ABFBMooSfxaJl
… and it does make you wonder a bit… why would the Chinese need to manufacture a Norwegian uniform?
Perhaps far-fetched (?), but it certainly seems like they are building up a stock of uniforms from various countries’ armed forces, in order to blend in during twilight.
Or maybe I’m just paranoid…
If one were to imagine a violent false-flag, perhaps Ebay is a bit revealing?
That being said – if it goes too far, the dark side and those sitting on the fence will always feel that their chance is now.
Clear boundaries with many high-value explosive targets are always good.
There, now I managed to register!
Like some others, I’ve been following Cornu since 2022, and one probably can’t overstate what that blog has done for Ukraine.
I’ve considered the Yellow Wall as mandatory reading and now found this comment section 😀
Välkommen, welcome – yes, it is widely accepted that the yellow wall changes how politics are conducted and creates happiness 👍
Curious about how you found your way here?
It’s posted on Substack and Bluesky as well.
Hung out on Cornu and saw that you were writing on Substack and managed to follow you there, despite my IT maturity lagging considerably behind my physical age…
I’ve read a lot on Cornu since I found that blog in 2022, it sparked something in me and gave me an idea of what the spearhead can do.
The comment section was buzzing with donations for rabbits, Gregg’s goal was to finance 1000 made in UA. I work as a mechanical designer in manufacturing industry and designed my own stove which me and my colleagues welded in the evenings with financial support from the company and about 15 of our suppliers. Up to now, we have produced 4000 stoves and another 15-20,000 have been manufactured by other companies.
I am in close contact with a couple of Ukrainian colleagues, their stories and everyday life deeply touch me and I’m not giving up! Should change my nickname to stoves 2025…
Jeez 😲
I know that a company in Väderstad/Vikingstad or whatever it was did the same thing, or maybe it’s you?
Welding in their spare time but in the premises and with resources, right?
By the way, I would gladly like to hear their stories and everyday life, now it seems like MXT doesn’t have any contact information on the site so that one shouldn’t be able to complain about my posts maybe 😀
Would it be possible to write a message on Substack if it’s of interest?
Yes, I work at Väderstad.
We have a welding school for internal training and high school internships, we have used these 9 welding stations in the evenings. A typical evening gathers 10-12 people who weld, eat pizza, and support Ukraine. Around 250 employees have spent at least one evening in the welding booths and many come back often, it’s over a man-year spent in working hours.
I have been in contact with lots of high schools and also other companies. Drawings and cutting files are public, if you google ATL+ukrainakaminen you will get good hits.
More companies have done a lot!
Well done, honor to you and the company where you are employed (and of course everyone else contributing to fireplaces)! I remember the discussions about the fireplaces, then it went quiet, nice to see that it is still ongoing!
There is probably a lot being done that one is not aware of, for example, I heard from an acquaintance that a company here in town donated a crane truck that several people helped renovate before transporting it down.
You, and your employer, are true role models!
Different messages from Trump, Kellog, Vance, and Hegseth. Is the attempt to triangulate what is possible to achieve in that way? Many of the reactions have been expected. Not least Ukraine’s. But especially Europe’s response has been a positive surprise.
The amount of clarifications and the fact that everything is scattered indicates to me that they received a backlash from the EU and Europe that they did not expect.
It also means that Putin is sitting with the deepest anxiety and chewing omeprazole.
“..deepest anxiety”.
Hmm, hasn’t he already reached the bottom of it?
;P
Will search for a lower level, will return 😀
Can one seriously imagine that China would participate in any actions directed against the EU or the West/NATO? I cannot. They are already under pressure from the American administration, which has China clearly in its sights.
One careless move and they are exposed, a trade war breaks out which certainly harms us but sinks China, the exporter of mixed scrap, completely.
So what do the rumors about Chinese military in North Korea and Norwegian uniforms mean? Probably that Russia is desperately trying to survive a little longer by confusing an increasingly united West. The question is how much fun the toy manufacturer Xi Jinping finds it.
No, they don’t, but how much attention has been drawn to the North Koreans?
Disguise them as peacekeeping troops and place them on the Russian side along the land border with UA. I have no idea if they could be in occupied areas, it depends on how the negotiations go.
Then there probably won’t be any major disputes from the EU or the USA.
China has already been in Belarus – zero condemnations.
If they stay within certain guidelines, they can certainly achieve a lot, I think 😀
Do not attack the EU, nor the NK forces.
There was no fuss about the North Koreans because no one in the West cares about them.
Not even attention when they died did they receive, a miserable existence 😲
The text has been translated from Swedish to English.
Is it including or excluding the Russian corruption 😀
Well, for starters, Russia has just very painfully experienced three years of warfare in 2025.
The West has not at all.
Furthermore, “war in Europe” is not necessarily a major offensive towards Paris, but it is enough to take a bit of land in the Baltics to create an open wound.
Clearly, Europe has NOT prepared for this since the defensive line against Russia in the Baltics STARTED being built in 2025.
The international brigade is now a battalion strong, a Swedish battalion.
Zelensky warns of 150,000 strategic Russian reserves in the Baltics and then Belarus on top of that.
I have great confidence in our Swedish soldiers, but a flood of 150,000 would be overwhelming even for them.
The next problem is that Russia builds cheaply, and so does China, but we build robots and ammunition that are very expensive. In the end, it’s the quantity that counts.
This is a high-risk situation, and for me, Ukraine is caught between a bad alternative and something better.
I believe that we need to consider their inflation when studying their investments in the war. Yes, they are investing more in percentage terms, but in real terms, they are investing less because the economy is on the verge of collapsing. Red warning lights are flashing everywhere now, and I agree with the legend perrag55 that 2025 is the year when they must *reduce* the costs of the war if their economy is not to collapse completely. And the thing, of course, is that if they cut expenses, they *must* straighten out the fronts, i.e., retreat in Ukraine.
We also note that Merz in Germany is clear that victory over the Moscow realm is fundamental for Europe’s security. Germany is the world’s third-largest economy. Now it seems that Germany is waking up, which means that the Moscow realm will soon be disarmed. Europe will not even need to consider war economy to achieve this when the big elephants in Europe start to dance.
🤩🤩🤩
The main advantage Europe has from a superior economy compared to Russia is precisely that we can invest more money in defense.
Because the Russians survive in a wartime economy on potatoes and vodka. They have done so for generations and centuries.
Therefore, it is worrying that Europe does not spend more, but less than Russia on defense.
Not more in terms of defense in money counted, but in terms of quality and quantity counted. Because in a wartime economy, resources and manpower are “free”.
Hope for Germany
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lielxfw6as2p
Yes, indeed, it often becomes quiet and a strange atmosphere if one says Germany is waking up, but we must try anyway: Germany is waking up, i.e. has understood that Ukraine’s and Europe’s security are interconnected.
Then Musk can cozy up to AfD as much as he wants, Merz had something to say about that a few days ago too.
Finally 🤩🤩
Starting to feel a bit that Trump is out of the picture and that everyone has moved on.
No one cares about Saudi and Ukraine being in China and Turkey, and that the EU has its own meetings.
Fastest case ever?
UA has just signed a free trade agreement with Dubai
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lifcx64kyk2g
👍
Is probably a market that suits Ukraine like a glove. Last time I checked, the United Arab Emirates didn’t have much farmland, but I believe they have a livestock farm larger than the country itself in Australia.
Have they 🤣🤣🤣
Never underestimate a good story… It turns out that Brunei has been selling parts of their zoos in Australia since 2014, so now they are no bigger than Brunei.
Putin is caught
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lifdc5y2pc2g
A possible first bid from Ukraine, SALTINT at best
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lievybmkbk2b
Healthy!👍Listen, it is Ukraine that is putting pressure on Russia. Not the USA, because neither Biden nor Trump has delivered/delivers more than more or less than necessary…. The USA can only acknowledge that they cannot influence Ukraine.
I don’t know if it’s possible to paste n x-links here, but I’ve been using x as a tool for a little over two years, just like others use other tools from Musk such as Starlink or Tesla. Even x is a tool.
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1891084897504170392?s=46
King-Macron leads the way.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lieyfpjp522h
I have had Macron in focus since he mounted the saddle with the saber at the ready. This was last summer and Macron raised the possibility of deploying French troops in Ukraine. The distance from words to action is still unknown.
Macron is a clown who likes to be seen and gladly takes center stage, but disappears as soon as the bill is to be split.
France is at the bottom when it comes to aid to the UA, Denmark has contributed 10 times as much per capita.
Completely wrong to negotiate peace as the situation is now. Most signs indicate that Ukraine has momentum + that they are world leaders in modern warfare + that they can produce cheap long-range weapons en masse + drone weapons. A static frontline war with drone dominance against them must simply be impossible for the Russians in the long run. Knocking out the Russians’ incomes cheaply is war-winning. A lot to demand from Ukraine, of course. The least Europe can do is to secure the border to Belarus, secure the airspace, and ensure that Ukraine gets the heavy weapons needed. Simply annihilate most of the Russian army in Ukraine. After that, peace negotiations may be relevant. A bad peace is the best way to escalate in the long run. Then we will have to fight on our own soil in the end. Peacekeeping forces without guaranteed participation and backup from the USA and properly resourced are a catastrophic idea until Europe has overwhelming resources in place.
It seems like the EU meeting has understood this, are you in contact with them?
Isf they have probably read your substack.
Just an attempt to summarize what you have always said.
Just have to ask, why do you spell UA with a c and not a k?
Scholz has managed to end up right 😳
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lifomopj3s2g
Swedish domestic politics can become tedious.
What 😳
Maybe it’s because there was some talk about Vance’s speech and SD early in the thread, but it was only a few comments and it’s not something that has been recurring.
Here you have a support package worth the name 🤩🤩🤩
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lifpe3vvr22g
As a first package, really good, but of course it must be followed up with more!
Zelensky good meeting with Macron, right things were said
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lifxlgvpx22g