Ukraine daily update February 20, 2025

Update

Today’s front report from Deepstatmap was not uplifting to read. It is still my strong opinion that the West, USA, and EU have played with EXTREMELY high risk by holding Ukraine in check throughout the war, and the worst-case scenario, which is front collapse, is something they haven’t even understood.

I suspect they thought the worst-case scenario would be negotiations because it was UA that refused to negotiate – they are easily fooled as well.

I also want to claim that the EU has been extremely lucky here that it is Ukraine that has stood between us and Russia. The EU would like to change this to be about our support and brilliant everything that makes the war successful, but it is a few hundred thousand fighters in eastern Ukraine who refuse to give in that are 100% the reason we are where we are today.

Let’s start with Trump and then I want to nuance China a bit.

Yesterday we heard Trump on video saying that for there to be any further peace negotiations, there must be a new election in Ukraine.

https://embed.bsky.app/embed/did:plc:oyzatboanf3omf2eievuwzwd/app.bsky.feed.post/3liiazl3c622l?id=8286378500101319

Anyone with some understanding of this knows that Russia is deeply involved in Ukrainian civil society and that a new election will throw the country into chaos – it’s like some genius wrote on Bluesky, the easiest way for Putin to win without even trying.

Did you hear Trump demand a new election in Russia?

As I said, I want to wait for –

-Trump leans back and is pleased that Ukraine is moving forward and EU is increasing support.

-Trump accuses EU of wanting more war and that Ukraine does not want peace.

Coming in a few weeks at most.

But…

It can already be stated with 100% certainty that Trump is not engaging in any kind of impartiality in these “peace negotiations.”

-he clearly states that Putin should be allowed to keep the conquered areas because “he has worked hard for them”.

But not a single word about Crimea, not a damn word đŸ€Ź

-he wants a new election in Ukraine to proceed with the negotiations.

But not a single word about a new election in Russia.

-Trump wanted more money from Zelensky before the negotiations began than what Germany was fined after WW2, and it was really dirty play where Zelensky was given an hour and the threat was to cancel everything.

Trump has not demanded any fines from Russia, the aggressor, but instead promised to ease sanctions or remove them immediately upon cessation of hostilities.

The cornerstone of being a peace negotiator is to be seen as impartial by both parties and then try to hammer out a solution both can live with.

Trump has NOT done that, making the USA’s “peace negotiations” completely illegitimate. This is also what we are seeing now – no one cares about what the USA is currently doing, no one.

Zelensky comes out saying that the lie about 4% popularity comes from Russia – a direct hit to Trump’s soft spots đŸ˜Č

And that Trump has fallen for disinformation

And that the USA is hand in hand with RU

And the EU is increasing sanctions against Russia when the USA wants to ease them. Who controls the entrance to the Baltic Sea?

However, it’s not all about Trump, there is a USA behind him, and if you have read my posts, you know that the USA is like the bank, not your friend.

Biden was absolutely devastating for Ukraine, everyone sensible agrees on that

So far, Trump has shown himself to be almost even worse, but with the difference that the enchantment seems to have been broken, and the EU has stood up together with Ukraine.

One could argue that the outcome is positive, and there are some who firmly claim that it is Trump’s purpose – that’s why I want to wait for Trump’s reaction, which will come soon.

My calibration is what is good for UA, and Zelensky has been tough on Trump in the past week.

This one is also interesting, RU bought Trump’s mansion for 3 times its value when he had financial problems in the 90s 🧐

There was a huge overreaction and crying fest about China and Nelson Mandela got upset on my Bluesky, among other things. 😬

Russia has almost broken its own back here completely without external interference and is not a very fun ally today, mostly a big burden.

China is looking a bit more awake at how much they can take over from Russia in the future, that’s my guess – their geographical location is absolutely TERRIBLE.

Partly economically, of course, but if China were to go and reclaim areas they lost in the 1800s, who will Russia complain to?

It’s no secret that the USA, EU, Russia, and China all want the reconstruction contracts and future raw material industry, but the countries have slightly different strategies on how to get there – the EU is probably the most reasonable party, but we now understand that Ukraine is standing between us and war.

China actually comes before the USA because China will try to bring in good business, investments, loans for raw material contracts and reconstruction, and they will negotiate about it.

There is a huge bonus for China, as I mentioned in the summer of 2024 when I thought that Ukraine would completely turn to China instead –

A transport route and pipelines from/to China via somewhere and to Ukraine as a transshipment point for the EU.

Now, pipelines might not be anything since China imports, but definitely the trade route based in Ukraine for further transport into the EU.

Ukraine understands the value of this absolutely, and China will have a reliable partner, and the EU market will be more accessible than it is today.

Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Azerbaijan – Georgia – Ukraine with two major maritime transport routes.

Instead of maritime transport via the Suez Canal and the risk of US sanctions and more.

For Ukraine, it will be a gold mine, of course.

China has already started this.

And I must remind you of one thing here, and you also heard this first in the world 🧐

Ukraine has essentially droned Russia’s infrastructure for oil and refined products westward, as well as all refineries and depots in western Russia.

Have you heard anything about pumping stations, oil pipelines, LNG, transshipment stations, or anything else towards China that has been droned?

Or the refineries in eastern Russia, other than in 2024?

Wild guess that China is now getting a bit more products cheaper than before when Russia cannot export to any other country?

One thing we all need to be clear about – Russia has unleashed a geopolitical atomic bomb that has only just begun to play out, and the playing field is changing, a bit like the stairs in the funhouse where you end up hanging on the railing and crying out loud.

China is also patient but has ambitions.

However, I want to pose an open question – how many wars has China started since the turn of the millennium?

But does everyone still believe that China will conquer the world with weapons?

China’s geographical location is so bad that the only countries they can invade by land are India and Russia – their allies.

Otherwise, it’s by sea, but even China understands that it’s vulnerable to a point where it’s suicide. Did you know that the USA has tungsten spears for their Stealth aircraft that they release vertically, penetrating straight through the ship’s hull and sinking them? Nothing shows up on radar and nothing can be shot down.

My guess is that if China feels they can reduce US dominance by approaching the EU without risking anything, they will do it. If Russia feels disadvantaged – who cares?

With the above, I want to say – don’t be fooled by China’s silence, something big is in the works.

I’m curious how Trump will handle Zelensky’s latest attack against him?

After the meeting in Saudi Arabia and Trump’s praise of Putin and Russia, we have a clear picture of his attitude towards Russia and Putin, don’t we?

Highlights like “Putin has fought hard for this land in Donbass so he should be allowed to keep it.”

Zelensky has kept quiet until now when he simply had enough (simplified, this is geopolitics and the UA leadership in consultation agrees on such matters) and has clearly and explicitly stated in several statements that the US position favors Putin and is what Putin wants.

We’ll see if Trump, in turn, manages to stay quiet because if he goes harder on Zelensky than he did in his last message that started by calling Zelensky a mediocre comedian, it would be a disaster for US credibility on the world stage – and it’s already a bit shaky.

EDIT: JD Vance has just warned Zelensky not to “attack Trump,” I think this will be as bad for the USA as we fear 😂

And Trump calls Zelensky a dictator 😁

Good Lord, Trump is really off track right now, if he doesn’t back down immediately, the fall of the USA will be faster than the Titanic.

MXT, the IT industry’s fastest rising star in code for rolling lists at the top of websites, posted the link below on johanno1.se, which is also a rising star closely behind MXT in space projectile orbit.

This should NOT be underestimated because now UA has gone after oil production, which was previously 100% protected by the USA – Biden had it as a trump card.

https://embed.bsky.app/embed/did:plc:5jbj2wzit57tfjmmwocupfs7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lijngjqj5k2s?id=8186214076575542

The Gripen is also in progress, timeline unknown.

If you liked the posts – feel free to share in your channels, it’s time to get some spread on this now.

If you want a fun comment section that will blow you away, visit the blog.

On Bluesky, I hang out with legends like Nelson Mandela, you can come there and be swept away by his jokes, which are really clever.

ohanno1.se

substack.com/@johanno1

https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social


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153 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update February 20, 2025”

  1. Update from 08:00 on 20.02.2025 regarding the Russian invasion

    A total of 122 combat actions were recorded during the past day.

    #Kharkiv 5
    #Kupyansk 4
    #Lyman 12đŸ’„
    #Siverskyi 1
    #Kramatorsk 4
    #Toretsk 13đŸ’„
    #Pokrovsk 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
    #Novopavlivka 17đŸ’„
    #Orikhivsk 9
    #Kursk 14đŸ’„

    According to the updated information, yesterday the AFRFđŸ‡·đŸ‡ș initiated a missile attack on Ukrainian positions and populated areas with two missiles, as well as 87 air strikes and released 131 drones. Additionally, they carried out 5757 attacks, including 140 from multiple launch rocket systems, and used over 3,000 kamikaze drones for attacks.

    In the #Pokrovsk sector, the AFUđŸ‡ș🇩 repelled 32 of the attacker’s assaults in the areas of Zelene Pole, Vodiane Druhe, Yelizavetivka, Novotoretske, Promin, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Andriivka, and Ulakly.
    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892458097400045614?s=46

    In the #Novopavlivka sector, the AFRFđŸ‡·đŸ‡ș carried out 17 attacks towards Kostiantynopol, Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, and Pryvilne in the last day.
    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892458107474776554?s=46

    The AFUđŸ‡ș🇩 continues its operations in the Kursk region. Yesterday, the enemy conducted 36 air strikes, released 47 drones, and fired 442 times, including ten from MLRS. Ukrainian defenders repelled 14 of the invaders’ attacks.
    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892458117750730801?s=46

    In total, the Russian invaders suffered 1190 losses during the past day. Ukrainian soldiers also neutralized 14 tanks, 14 armored vehicles, 63 artillery systems, three MLRS, six air defense systems, 160 tactical UAVs, and 136 vehicles belonging to the occupiers.
    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892458127091544358?s=46

    1. Thank you for post 205 – this definitely belongs here daily if you have the energy 👍

      Has MXT managed to fix your login?

      What was great, did they reach over 200/day earlier?

      1. @ your service, Sir đŸ«Ą

        Here are some of the highlights over the 200 mark, all since the beginning of the Pokrovsk offensive.

        M

        Operational information 08.00 on Feb 16, 2025 on Russian invasion

        261↗combat engagements.

        #Kharkiv 5
        #Kupyansk 39đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Lyman 27đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Siverskyi 10
        #Kramatorsk 29đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Toretsk 19đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Pokrovsk 71đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Novopavlivka 25đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Orikhiv 2
        #Prydniprovsky 8↗
        #Kursk 15đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1891021911083098254?s=46

        Update as of 08.00 on 12/24/2024 on the Russian invasion

        252 combat engagements

        #Kharkiv 4
        #Kupyansk 19đŸ’„
        #Lyman 27đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Siversky 13
        #Kramatorsk 9
        #Toretsk 18đŸ’„
        #Pokrovsk 30đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Kurakhove 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Vremivsk 35đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Huliaipil 2
        #Orikhivsk 4
        ##Prydniprovsky 3
        #Kursk 46đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1871456831064948800?s=46

        Operational information as of 08.00 on November 24, 2024 on the Russian invasion

        227↗ combat engagements registered over the last day.

        Kharkiv 13
        Kupyansk 12
        Lyman 17
        Siversky 1
        Kramatorsk 3
        Toretsk 2
        Pokrovsk 55â†—ïžđŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Kurakhove 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Vremivsk 26đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Prydniprovsky 5

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1860584141714051380?s=46

        Operational information as of 08.00 on 01.12.2024 on the Russian invasion

        In total, 224 combat engagements were recorded over the past day.

        Kharkiv 9
        Kupyansk 7
        Lyman 20đŸ’„
        Kramatorsk 17đŸ’„
        Toretsk 16
        Pokrovsk 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Kurakhove 54đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Vremivsk 18đŸ’„
        Prydniprovskyi 4
        Kursk 22đŸ’„

        Operational information as of 08.00 on 07.01.2025 on the Russian invasion

        218↗combat engagements recorded.

        #Kharkiv 3
        #Kupyansk 4
        #Lyman 13
        #Siversky 2
        #Kramatorsk 5
        #Toretsk 8
        #Pokrovsk 41đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Kurakhove 26
        #Vremivsk 12
        #Orikhiv 1
        #Prydniprovsky 2
        #Kursk 94đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1876515759347900740?s=46

        Update as of 08.00 on 12/26/2024 on the Russian invasion

        217 combat engagements:

        #Kharkiv 3
        Kupyansk 7
        #Lyman 26
        #Siversky 2
        #Kramatorsk 11
        #Toretsk 13
        #Pokrovsk 57đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Kurakhove 31đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Vremivsk 35đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Huliaipil 1
        #Novodanylivka 2
        #Prydniprovskyi 3
        #Kursk 27đŸ’„

        Operational information as of 08.00 11.01.2025 on the Russian invasion

        In total, 213↗combat engagements were recorded over the past day.

        #Kharkiv 5
        #Kupyansk 8
        #Lyman 39đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Siversky 2
        #Kramatorsk 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Toretsk 5
        #Pokrovsk 72đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Novopavlivka 14
        #Kursk 29đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1877986087420797070?s=46

        Operational information as of 08.00 on 13.12.2024 on the Russian invasion

        210 combat engagements:

        #Kharkiv 8
        #Kupyansk 8
        #Lyman 22đŸ’„
        #Kramatorsk 7
        #Toretsk 4
        #Pokrovsk 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Kurakhove đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Vremivsk đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Orikhiv 2
        #Prydniprovskyi 5
        #Kursk 21đŸ’„

      2. @ your service, Sir đŸ«Ą

        Here are some of the highlights over the 200 mark, all since the beginning of the Pokrovsk offensive.

        M

        Operational information 08.00 on Feb 16, 2025 on Russian invasion

        261↗combat engagements.

        #Kharkiv 5
        #Kupyansk 39đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Lyman 27đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Siverskyi 10
        #Kramatorsk 29đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Toretsk 19đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Pokrovsk 71đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Novopavlivka 25đŸ’„đŸ’„â†—ïž
        #Orikhiv 2
        #Prydniprovsky 8↗
        #Kursk 15đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1891021911083098254?s=46

        Update as of 08.00 on 12/24/2024 on the Russian invasion

        252 combat engagements

        #Kharkiv 4
        #Kupyansk 19đŸ’„
        #Lyman 27đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Siversky 13
        #Kramatorsk 9
        #Toretsk 18đŸ’„
        #Pokrovsk 30đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Kurakhove 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Vremivsk 35đŸ’„đŸ’„
        #Huliaipil 2
        #Orikhivsk 4
        ##Prydniprovsky 3
        #Kursk 46đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1871456831064948800?s=46

        Operational information as of 08.00 on November 24, 2024 on the Russian invasion

        227↗ combat engagements registered over the last day.

        Kharkiv 13
        Kupyansk 12
        Lyman 17
        Siversky 1
        Kramatorsk 3
        Toretsk 2
        Pokrovsk 55â†—ïžđŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Kurakhove 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Vremivsk 26đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Prydniprovsky 5

        https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1860584141714051380?s=46

        Operational information as of 08.00 on 01.12.2024 on the Russian invasion

        In total, 224 combat engagements were recorded over the past day.

        Kharkiv 9
        Kupyansk 7
        Lyman 20đŸ’„
        Kramatorsk 17đŸ’„
        Toretsk 16
        Pokrovsk 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Kurakhove 54đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
        Vremivsk 18đŸ’„
        Prydniprovskyi 4
        Kursk 22đŸ’„

        1. Operational information as of 08.00 on 07.01.2025 on the Russian invasion

          218↗combat engagements recorded.

          #Kharkiv 3
          #Kupyansk 4
          #Lyman 13
          #Siversky 2
          #Kramatorsk 5
          #Toretsk 8
          #Pokrovsk 41đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Kurakhove 26
          #Vremivsk 12
          #Orikhiv 1
          #Prydniprovsky 2
          #Kursk 94đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„

          https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1876515759347900740?s=46

          Update as of 08.00 on 12/26/2024 on the Russian invasion

          217 combat engagements:

          #Kharkiv 3
          Kupyansk 7
          #Lyman 26
          #Siversky 2
          #Kramatorsk 11
          #Toretsk 13
          #Pokrovsk 57đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Kurakhove 31đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Vremivsk 35đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Huliaipil 1
          #Novodanylivka 2
          #Prydniprovskyi 3
          #Kursk 27đŸ’„

          Operational information as of 08.00 11.01.2025 on the Russian invasion

          In total, 213↗combat engagements were recorded over the past day.

          #Kharkiv 5
          #Kupyansk 8
          #Lyman 39đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Siversky 2
          #Kramatorsk 32đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Toretsk 5
          #Pokrovsk 72đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Novopavlivka 14
          #Kursk 29đŸ’„

          https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1877986087420797070?s=46

          Operational information as of 08.00 on 13.12.2024 on the Russian invasion

          210 combat engagements:

          #Kharkiv 8
          #Kupyansk 8
          #Lyman 22đŸ’„
          #Kramatorsk 7
          #Toretsk 4
          #Pokrovsk 47đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Kurakhove đŸ’„đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Vremivsk đŸ’„đŸ’„
          #Orikhiv 2
          #Prydniprovskyi 5
          #Kursk 21đŸ’„

    2. Nice, so it’s about halfway down now, right?
      This kind of thing is extremely interesting because it shows in hard numbers how intense the pressure is 👍

    1. Rolling 7 days on artillery and anti-aircraft defense is remarkable. As someone wrote, if you overlook the politics, everything feels very positive!

      For Ryzz to sit at a negotiating table in a few months and play tough should be difficult…..

      And what Trump, who likes strength, sees in Ryzzland, one can ponder…. I wonder if he is not on film from some hotel in Moscow with a different company than Melania. He should have made a state visit during the last term, shouldn’t he?

      1. I believe Trump and his supporters see it as manly, and Melania doesn’t care. That way, she doesn’t have to deal with the little grumpy face and can focus on her secret muscular hunk instead.

        I don’t understand what people see in RU, it’s a dysfunctional corrupt crap country that doesn’t contribute anything, as someone said, a gas station with an army. Do they think they can play China against Russia and make them compliant by patting little Putin on the head? On the contrary, I would say, China will see its sources of raw materials stolen by the USA. They will squeeze the USA economically and militarily as much as they can before their economy crashes. We might witness a reverse arms race debacle where the USA throws in the towel when they see that the economy can’t handle it anymore.

        Erdoğan’s statement the other day hasn’t been discussed much, is it just as much hot air? Has he realized that RU is the shortcut to hell? Does he see this as a way to get closer to the EU? Does he see it as Turkey becoming the great leader in NATO when the USA withdraws? After all, they are the second-largest army in NATO. I believe in the latter… and it’s not a pleasant development.

        I’m not losing hope, I agree with JNo.1, I want to wait and see if there’s a plan behind the man of hot air or if it’s total darkness. I’m not surprised by the multitude of incomprehensible statements, however, I am surprised by how straightforward it is. On the other hand, something else might come the day after.

    2. Exquisite series of heavy losses in qualified equipment. As mentioned, the situation on the ground looks hopeful.

      Unfortunately, there are many signs indicating that Trump is now serving the interests of the Moscow regime and that peace at any cost is prioritized; the Moscow regime is on the brink of collapse.

      In that case, I wonder if the USA, that is, the sensible Republicans and the sensible Democrats, are just going to sit and watch.

    3. Ojoj đŸ˜Č

      6th LV and 63rd artillery interspersed with 136 soft vehicles – the rear has burned quite a lot tonight.

      What an information-packed start with 205 and then the losses – very good 👍👍

    1. Yes, darn it, WordPress is not your best friend 205 😀
      Good if it’s working now, there’s nothing worse than getting stuck in the filter…

      1. Hello Karl XII (recognize the name…)

        Me and MXT are absolutely delighted with this comment section, we must admit – it really brightens the day and makes you feel motivated to write, really 👍👍

  2. Yes, Trump is going from indignity to indignity here. I see him as a clear red flashing warning signal, his current track makes him a security risk even for the USA. But we’ll see, the American system is built to be resilient.

    It’s very possible that China will take the opportunity to increase its influence by choosing Ukraine. But unfortunately, it’s also possible that they will settle for the occupied parts and keep a tight grip on the Moscow realm.

    What is certain is that right now the USA is falling like a stone internationally. Trump is a macabre clown and may become a laughingstock in due course. I really wonder what the Republicans think about the past week’s crawling to the Moscow realm. I mean the regular Republicans, not the MAGA.

    1. Fly a squadron of fully armed JAS Gripen jets to Ukraine immediately. If Ukrainian pilots are not available, let Swedish pilots start the mission: monitor the Ukrainian airspace against missiles, conduct reconnaissance, provide support during Ukrainian counterattacks. The only obstacle to such a delivery and military support is Sweden itself.

  3. Peter Den Större

    Regarding Trump, it remains to be seen what he has in mind, as I have mentioned, I have my theory.

    Russia’s top priority has long been to reach more ports and seas. Therefore, it would be embarrassing if Winnie the Pooh takes back the areas that RU has stolen from them in the east. And maybe a little more. Putin hardly has the military power to resist. A little turmoil there and Ukraine is out in the open.

    No, China does not have as many countries around it to conquer. Just like the Roman Empire, they have probably reached an extent where the next step must be a retreat.

    The whole sea is storming.

    1. A theory I have is that Trump, together with Russia and China, wants to crush the left-liberal order in the West. No small ambitions, one might say, but he believes himself to be the Hulk. He takes care of the USA on his own when he, with his DOGE, clears out woke from the federal administration. But he also wants to go after Western Europe, but he proceeds very clumsily. A theory as mentioned.

    2. I wanted to wait for two alternatives.
      – Trump leans back satisfied that he has manipulated the EU and Ukraine into the most violent possible reaction.
      – Trump begins to call the EU warmongers.

      Right now, it seems to be leaning towards the latter alternative and I am somewhat surprised actually, even though maybe I shouldn’t be đŸ˜Č

  4. âšĄïž 80 HOSTILE UAVS SHOT DOWN, 78 DRONES DID NOT REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOST IN THE AREA)

    During the night of February 20, 2025, the Russian occupiers carried out a combined attack using various types of air, land, and sea-based missiles against critical infrastructure in the Kharkiv region.

    A total of 14 missiles were used: cruise missiles – X-101/X-55cm (launched from the Volgograd region), Kalibr/Iskander-K (from the Black Sea/Crimea); ballistic missiles – Iskander-M/KN-23 (launched from the Voronezh region). Information about the results of the military operations and the consequences of the missile attack is not disclosed.

    Additionally, the enemy attacked with 161 combat UAVs of Shahed type and other types of imitation drones from the directions: Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk – Russian Federation.

    Air force, air defense missile units, electronic warfare equipment, and mobile artillery units from the air force and the Ukrainian armed forces were involved in repelling the enemy’s air attack.

    đŸ’„ From 10:00 onwards, 80 Shahed and other types of attack UAVs were confirmed shot down in the regions of Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kiev, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa.

    78 hostile imitation drones were lost locally (without any negative consequences).

    The regions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, and Kiev were affected by the enemy’s attack. In the Kherson region, a hostile guided aerial bomb partially destroyed the entrance to a multi-story building, there are casualties, and rescue operations are ongoing.

    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892499449760346247?s=46

    1. 160 drones and 78+60 shot down?
      Quite a kill ratio to say the least 👍

      No robots shot down?
      Zelensky has hinted at a lack of air defense now and RU tends to shoot at areas without air defense nowadays.

  5. Thank you, Johan.
    I think Trump is shooting himself in the foot, Americans will realize that they have the same credibility ranking as Moscow and freak out. Internal unrest that paralyzes foreign activities to a large extent.
    Tji stands behind the curtain waiting to make an entrance as soon as the dust settles and the rest of the world is busy with other things.
    Putin dies of starvation because he is paranoid and dares not eat or drink.
    Europe sharpens its blades and gets ready to fight and consign Moscow to the scrap heap of history.
    Erdogan invites both east and west to dance and takes advantage where possible.
    Did I forget something?

  6. Yes, you forgot about Iran’s mullahs who will soon be dangling and Gaza which will be rebuilt by someone who wants influence and power. By whom, we do not know, but there are indeed a number of players. Israel themselves? USA? Turkey? UA?
    Otherwise, I think your prediction could very well come true.

  7. Alrajt, 06:30 here and I see that a lot of informative posts are starting to appear in the comment section – I hope they continue daily because it is the entirety that provides the added value, and what is contributed in the comment section is very valuable.

  8. “One of the key importers of Russian oil, the Turkish oil holding Tupras, has announced a temporary suspension of purchases of Russian Urals crude. They received the final cargoes this month, now due to US sanctions, they will no longer buy Russian oil.”

  9. I continue with a fool’s stubbornness (until someone proves me wrong) to claim that China is a huge problem – that is not visible. China’s goal is more or less world domination (made in China 2030 + 2050), and what is happening now fits perfectly into their plans. The USA in chaos, division among Western allies, Russia on the brink, opportunity for “business” in Ukraine. The latter is a major problem. It means that China gains access to raw materials – especially crucial metals for the tech industry, but also access to land – where extraction and processing take place. This poses a significant security issue. No one will know who the people that China brings in are, “workers” could just as well be military personnel and “equipment” could be of a military nature. If there is one thing China is good at, it is hiding things within other activities. They are like Russia – but more sophisticated. Allowing China into Ukraine is the stupidest thing one could do, it is a threat to both UA and Europe. Far-fetched? Conspiratorial? Is it, considering things that absolutely “could not happen” have occurred just in the past month. We should not be so cocky when we say that things CANNOT happen, reality is usually worse than fiction. China should not be welcomed with open arms, they are as much a threat to democracy as Russia – just in a different form.

    1. Westley Richard

      A promissory note can be almost as effective as a firearm. The difference is that it is legal and widely accepted to threaten with and goes under the radar.

      China holds a considerable amount of promissory notes.

    2. Now, for example, the EU and the USA could have ended this war already in 2022 – if what is happening now suits China perfectly?

      Yes, China is a major player and it’s not fun to be under their influence, but what should the EU do? The USA has been sabotaging the UA war for three years, and it is the EU that will soon have to deal with the consequences.

      Russia is the enemy with a capital E.

      China remains, right?

      Biden and Trump could have pursued any line they wanted, but they chose this one.

      We don’t need to invite all of China to the EU, but we can’t be negative if Ukraine invites them to their country, after all, Ukraine is doing what they believe is best for their country, right?

      The USA thinks of themselves first and foremost, and they want to bring down China if they can.

      What is best for the EU?

      And regardless of that – Germany and France still want to have those relations with China anyway 😄

  10. Westley Richard

    There are some Republicans who dare to question Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine and point out that Russia is still the enemy of the Western world. I hope that more and more will dare to come forward and that they can unite around Reagan’s old ideas that the USA and Europe should stand together against Russia. It only takes a handful for Congress and the Senate to be able to block decisions that require their approval.

    The risk is that the Democrats come out strong and that it becomes a fight, which means that the insightful Republican members must follow the party line. Sometimes it’s better to keep quiet when the opponent has internal conflicts so that they don’t unite against an external enemy.

  11. I have probably mentioned a few times here that I sometimes listen to Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian associated with the conservative The Hoover Institution at Stanford. Among other things, he was a guest on John Anderson’s podcast, a former Australian prime minister who has a podcast, about a year ago where VDH, among other things, claimed that people close to Trump had said that they would try to push RU back to the “border” before the full-scale invasion attempt.

    And it was on VDH’s own podcast that I (I think it was in December but it could have been a little earlier) first heard that the USA did not want to let China plunder RU for minerals, but Trump wanted to do so.

    I wrote about this in a post on another blog, the one I have to thank for caring so much about Ukraine as I do, but that post was then removed, I was admittedly quite clumsy, I mentioned that this could not end well for the relationship between Europe and the USA with the Cold War, etc., so I understand to some extent (different username there).

    But now Ledarsidorna on X writes that he found the cornerstones of Trump’s inaugural speech in an essay by Peter Thiel from the Hoover Institution in the 1990s. Thiel is the founder of PayPal, was the first external investor in Facebook (owns 10.5%), a venture capitalist, and the one who is said to have connected Trump with JD Vance.

    Apparently, this essay is supposed to describe the chaos strategy that Trump is implementing and therefore be fully aware, but I have not read the essay.

    I have more to share that VDH has mentioned but will come back to that.

    But I agree with Westerholm (Ledarsidorna), keep a cool head and keep your eye on the ball.

    https://x.com/ledarsidorna_se/status/1892443970350854637

    https://x.com/ledarsidorna_se/status/1892506715381186838

  12. Now it seems to be either/or in this thread – it would be interesting to hear the Analyst’s and Peter the Great’s views on how the peace negotiations are going? It always becomes a bit one-sided 😀

    EDIT: I see that Peter the Great has written above, maybe I should read before I write 😬

  13. Many comment on the threat from China by saying that they cannot invade any country, etc. Threats to democracy can occur in many ways, with military force being one. One can invade a country and/or threaten it without military force. Investing in infrastructure is one way, threatening to withdraw investments if the country in question makes (for China) unwanted choices/statements/legislation/etc., is another way. Starting businesses in the country in question with their own (Chinese) personnel is another – when does the personnel transition from being just workers? Investments and loans are one of China’s weapons to bind countries in different ways. This can be likened to a “silent invasion” where economic dependence leads to political submission.

    To dismiss it by saying “Russia is a worse threat to democracy” is to ignore an impending reality. Unfortunately, we cannot afford to address threats “one by one”, but we must work broadly against all different threats to democracy. All threats are equally bad – in different ways! Someone here said “I’d rather be surveilled than dead”, it sounds “right” at first glance, but if you start looking a little deeper into what this means in practice, you realize that there is no significant difference. Surveillance unfortunately also means death – if you have “wrong” opinions, it just takes a little longer.

    What many seem not to realize is that China is currently the big winner in the game around Europe and that China, to a greater extent than both us and the Russians understand, is playing Russia against Europe. We have three clear indications pointing in that direction:

    1) Shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin was in China in connection with the Olympic Games there. A coincidence? I doubt it. The fact that the invasion came shortly after indicates a silent approval from Beijing.

    2) We know that China supplies Russia with weapons and also allows North Korean soldiers to be transported to Ukraine.

    3) The fact that Zelenskyy points out that Russia is planning an attack on a NATO country means that Ukraine has good intelligence on what Russia is up to and probably also where they are getting materials for such an expedition. Yes, Russia produces some of its own materials, but China also contributes equipment. I have seen Russian soldiers in clothes that I know come from China (certain styles of clothing that I have seen from Chinese manufacturers). Russia cannot carry out a military expedition without China’s help. Ukraine cannot say this outright, but by saying that Russia will be able to attack a NATO area, it means they have knowledge of where the military capacity is coming from.

    My speculation is that Russia will use “North Koreans”, i.e. Chinese pretending to be North Koreans, in an attack on a NATO area. The North Korean soldiers so far have mostly been a trial balloon. Of course, I could be wrong, I’m not an expert either. China acts in the long term and subtly, but their influence can be at least as destructive as an open military invasion.

    1. It has definitely benefited China that the EU has had wars in its own backyard, which have also impoverished Russia.

      Chinese SOF have been fighting in Ukraine for a long time already.

      The North Koreans are definitely opening up to the Chinese, but they will probably rather fortify the land border against Ukraine so that Russia can deploy its entire army of a million to face the Baltic states.

    2. Oppression can make fine and desirable parts of you disappear, i.e. die. So one should always be careful when trading freedom for security or negative rights for positive rights.

      It is worth noting that we do not have any antibiotic production in Europe, I believe the USA is in the process of acquiring it. It is China that controls it, also available in India but I want to remember that it is dependent on China. Imagine going to war without antibiotics…

  14. “A key finding is that tactical drones are inflicting roughly two-thirds of Russian losses
twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal put together
remarkable
for weapons which did not officially exist in the Ukrainian military at the start of the war”

  15. ”En nyckelfaktor Ă€r att taktiska drönare orsakar ungefĂ€r tvĂ„ tredjedelar av de ryska förlusterna. Med andra ord Ă€r de dubbelt sĂ„ effektiva som alla andra vapen i den ukrainska arsenalen tillsammans. Detta Ă€r en anmĂ€rkningsvĂ€rd förĂ€ndring för vapen som inte officiellt fanns i den ukrainska militĂ€ren i början av kriget.”

  16. ”En nyckelfaktor Ă€r att taktiska drönare stĂ„r för ungefĂ€r tvĂ„ tredjedelar av de ryska förlusterna. Med andra ord Ă€r de dubbelt sĂ„ effektiva som alla andra vapen i den ukrainska arsenalen tillsammans. Detta Ă€r en anmĂ€rkningsvĂ€rd förĂ€ndring för vapen som inte officiellt fanns i den ukrainska militĂ€ren i början av kriget.”

    Ny RUSI-rapport: Dronar orsakar nu tvÄ tredjedelar av de ryska förlusterna

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/02/18/new-report-drones-now-destroying-two-thirds-of-russian-targets/

    1. Westley Richard

      Artillery has historically been what has caused the most casualties, especially at the beginning of an attack when the enemy has been standing exposed and hasn’t had time to take cover. At the start of the war, there were images of masses of Russians perishing when they were lined up in a field.

      With all the drones in the air, one probably doesn’t expose oneself as much, which should also reduce the number of casualties for artillery.

  17. Unfortunately, there are no signs of any Ukrainian “offensive”. Russia continues to advance. New packages from the USA are HIGHLY unlikely. A possible scenario is that peace proposals are presented, and when Ukraine and Europe do not approve this, the export of weapons from the USA is stopped. Bad vibes on our side of the pond!

    And yes, will hit hard on the American defense industry while Europe is burning and trying to adjust. But Trump doesn’t care about this, as it is secondary to his ego and conflict with Ukraine and Europe.

    NOTHING can be ruled out! Europe must act NOW. Tomorrow it may be hopelessly late! I hope that a huge package is on the way from willing countries in the EU. A common package, financed by loans, will not happen because of Hungary.

    Serious situation!

    1. Yes, there is a huge package on the way. Hungary is not a problem, the package is being put together by all countries standing united for Ukraine. The EU doesn’t have to do everything through the EU’s budget, so tough luck Hungary and Slovakia 😉.

      1. There is a smaller package in the works of about 60 billion SEK, funded by voluntary countries. It’s not enough. The larger package being discussed, around 1000 billion, is based on joint EU loans similar to the Covid loans, and Hungary will not allow it.

      2. Sorry to sound negative, but there are not many bright spots right now. The USA and its allies are like a wet blanket over this war. The EU, or at least the countries that can, need to act immediately. The USA and Russia are leaving us behind.

        1. With USA allies, I primarily think of openly pro-Russian Hungary and Slovakia in the EU (as well as Russia, of course). I no longer see the USA as an ally of free Europe.

      1. No one really knows, but there is speculation about it after the canceled press conference that was planned. Not unexpected. He didn’t see eye to eye with Trump.

  18. Strange! I posted an x-link to a Finnish MP who leaked that Europe now has three months to swallow the American medicine, otherwise they will withdraw troops from Europe. Did anyone see it? Probably forgot to Publish the comment…

      1. It will take a long time and that all other countries agree. Has not been tested before. Court processes. This comes too late like so much else from the EU.

  19. China’s ports are now also receiving sanctioned boats with Russian oil. They know that Trump will not do anything. The sanctions become toothless.

  20. I work in manufacturing industry, about a year ago I visited a larger Danish foundry. During the factory tour, I could see cylinder-shaped castings in large quantities along the entire production flow. My host explained that they were casting grenades in caliber 60-120 mm (if I remember correctly, no joke), a couple of years ago the volume was significantly lower and they would take detours around those products during tours because they were “ashamed” of that production.

    What I took away from it was that Europe can out-arm Russia if we just take the situation seriously, and people are probably starting to realize that.

    Russia has already shifted to a war economy and allocates 30-40% to the war industry (not defense industry…) Europe is idling and can significantly ramp up!!

    1. Damn, now I see the function to edit my own post within 5 minutes!

      I haven’t understood what has been written about this, but well done by the IT support in the comment section!!

  21. After almost 3 years at Cornu, without commenting, I finally took the plunge and got a login for the world-leading “competitor”. Nice to see a comment section that is a bit more open and doesn’t have complete Trump Tourette’s.

      1. We are talking about Kellog who is completely outside the circle that decides around Trump. Doubtful if it’s even worth the time to talk to him. Trump called (probably) and said that he absolutely couldn’t hold the press conference because Z had been stupid.

    1. Hope for a more credible source. Unfortunately, I have too little knowledge about the account.

      But a disaster for the US weapons industry if it is true. A good opportunity to lift the US embargo on the Gripen and send what we have, and then solve all defense with more reliable supplier countries?

    2. I wonder if the EU will be allowed to buy weapons soon. Probably only if we commit to not giving them to Ukraine! The EU is so darn unprepared for this that we’ll have to roll up our sleeves over our ears if we’re going to be able to save Ukraine solely with our support. Many analysts believe it’s not possible. It’s not enough that we have money, we lack the defense industry. Could we possibly buy from South Korea? The queue is probably long, and the USA could threaten South Korea, which would then refuse the EU. Any other ideas?

      1. There is a big difference between being an ally and not being one. That being said, we must also show that we are willing to take responsibility and at least protect our own borders.

    3. Trump is completely losing it. Just ignore the nonsense and make sure that those of us who support Ukraine continue to deliver. It’s not just Europe that is wondering about the new “president”, we have Asia and Australia too.

  22. That’s how I see it, if we can’t buy it, we might as well give away Gripen, there’s really nothing left to threaten with, right?

    Maybe it’s time to switch to a wartime economy in Europe?

  23. I have given up – there’s no point in even pretending anymore that Trump would have a hidden plan to get the EU to act against Russia 😂
    You will like this morning’s post.

    And besides, it’s in English and so filled with analyses that Eisenhower would have knighted me 👍

    1. Good, we’ll put the transatlantic link on hold as long as he’s running loose. Looking forward to the showdown đŸ’ȘđŸ»âœŠđŸ»âœŠđŸ»!

  24. Got a feeling. The point of no return is about to be crossed for Putin and Trump. Some of Europe’s countries have a plan and preferably want to involve more. But at a certain point, drastic things can happen.

  25. We are all Cornucopians here, I guess 🙂
    I admit that I have been a bit spoiled on Cornu by a small piece of software, or whatever it is called, that makes it easy to see new posts with a red marker, and collapses posts without new replies since the last time you were online.
    It would be great to have such a function here too. Does anyone know if it’s available?

  26. Hello Johan, I registered today to send you this podcast episode. Especially when Friedman describes the Republican senators and the casino analogy, it was good. And of course, Newton’s 3rd law. For some reason, I thought, “This is Johan01’s style, he just has to listen to Friedman.” The rest of you should listen too!
    ————-
    President Trump appears ready to cut a deal that could end Russia’s war in Ukraine without ever consulting Ukraine. In this episode, the deputy Opinion editor Patrick Healy talks to the Opinion columnist Thomas L. Friedman about Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy.

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/3j1rRIg4MomLXd3puM9OIf?si=pws4-AG5T_SZ4LeSpkrGgQ

    https://pca.st/episode/49e99fac-734c-432c-a272-8cdade23f309

      1. Thank you and thanks for starting the blog! Now that you’ve started it, I follow Noel and you on Bluesky and come here. Then C becomes a bit redundant, at least in the comment section. However, that time saving is well compensated for by the Ukraine The Latest podcast since I discovered it.

  27. Westley Richard

    AMF breaks the trend and opens up to becoming a direct owner in the now sizzling defense industry.

    “We have clear return requirements from our owners and 4.5 million customers, and want to be part of that journey,” says Katarina Romberg, the new head of the pension giant’s asset management of nearly 850 billion SEK.

    https://www.di.se/digital/trendskiftet-pensionsjatten-vill-kopa-forsvarsaktier/

    Finally, AMF has woken up, hopefully many funds will follow in their footsteps.

  28. From former commander of the Ukrainian army, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, ex Commander AFU, now Ukrainian ambassador in the UK🇬🇧.

    “Despite the fact that the situation on the battlefield in the summer of 2023 had changed dramatically, and by the way, the rules of warfare had evolved completely. But from now on, I would say – no. I was completely sure that if we inflicted as many losses as possible on the Russian army and Russia, these losses would eventually force [Moscow] to refrain from further actions. But that was entirely my mistake. From today onwards, we see that human resources are probably among the cheapest for Russia.”

    https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1892758629519958390?s=46

    The referenced tweet contains more. Among other things about thread drones and original source.

  29. ”Med General Kellogg diskuterade vi frontlinjesituationen, behovet av att frige alla vĂ„ra krigsfĂ„ngar som hĂ„lls i Ryssland, och nödvĂ€ndigheten av ett tydligt, pĂ„litligt system av sĂ€kerhetsgarantier—ett som sĂ€kerstĂ€ller att denna krig aldrig Ă„tervĂ€nder och att Ryssland aldrig mer förstör liv.”

    — Volodymyr ZelenskyyđŸ‡ș🇩

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1892714137492312352?s=46

  30. If Europe wants to survive, it must take defense as seriously as Poland does. In response to European anger at Vance’s MSC speech, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pleaded with fellow EU members to stop blaming the Trump administration and get serious about defense: “I will ask the prime ministers gathered in Paris today directly, are they ready to make a serious decision? Poland is unfortunately an exception to the rule in Europe at the moment. This absolutely has to change.”

  31. ”If Europe wants to survive, it must take defense as seriously as Poland does.”

    “Tusk: ”I will ask the prime ministers gathered in Paris today directly, are they ready to make a serious decision? Poland is unfortunately an exception to the rule in Europe at the moment. This absolutely has to change.””

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