Update
The lions are waiting
Don’t forget that the UA strategic drone war continues with undiminished strength – drone swarms almost daily now and another factory has ceased production
Twitter, which is still a pretty good source of information, quickly turned on the UA filter and RU accounts have started to quiet down about the violent final offensive in Kursk (some risk of exaggeration…).
However, Zelensky addressed it in his evening speech and praised the tired heroes who do the impossible every day.
What do we know –
-that UA made an attempt a month ago and didn’t advance.
-that UA has carried out at least three battalion attacks in different locations and RU is shaken.
-that UA has received Mirage and F-16.
-that UA has kept this very discreetly.
-that UA has launched a new weapon that managed to knock out the FAB bombs themselves on the southern front.
-that there are units with new tactical markings along the northern front (new color on the tape if you remember 2022-2023) which is a clear signal.
-that it’s simmering along the entire northern front and reconnaissance is infiltrating and RU is logging the march of various units to their UFA.
Last time this happened, I never bit, but we have previously discussed that UA will carry out local offensives with existing units at the northern front and Dnepr, and perhaps other places if the opportunity arises.
So at this stage, this feels more ambitious than that.
Let me elaborate –
Kursk is absolutely NOT the best place to conduct offensive operations, a bubble surrounded by a forest of RU units.
Yes – evidently RU is in bad shape as two attack vectors in battalion strength cut through 4-5 RU brigades and created chaos.
Now apparently NK soldiers are back in panic too, and they are panicking.
What should be done now, if the level of ambition is higher, which I believe, is to open up new attack vectors in other places along the northern front.
And combat the FAB droppers with new shiny top-notch aircraft that have arrived.
At Belgorod, UA still has a lot of brigades with strong bite and RU is weak, for example.
If you look at the unit map, there are about a dozen RU brigades now trying to slow down two attack vectors with mech battalions.
Presumably, RU units are weakened and historically UA has also fought offensively from a numerical disadvantage.
Furthermore, all those who mock the world’s best infantry when I praise them can explain how they would handle it if we in Sweden were to attack mechanized with a 3:1 advantage – a platoon attacks a group, a company attacks a platoon, and so on. RU probably expected a 10:1 advantage to be able to take terrain.
But UA attacks in a numerical disadvantage, we have seen Azov fight with a mechanized infantry group against 1-2 platoons and take some wounded numerous times, and the RU defense was obliterated, “20 killed,” “40 killed,” and so on.
These battalion attacks go directly against the best RU has to offer now – the best!
It is therefore my conviction that –
-UA no longer has red and yellow cards to adhere to from the EU or Trump.
-UA intends to start a series of offensive operations with existing units to create opportunities and that they have a strategic reserve to use if an opportunity arises.
-UA now has the ability (soon) to deal with the detestable FAB bomb droppers.
The caveat is that they are only allowed to fight in the Kursk bulge and not open new attack vectors, and if there are no more border crossings, it may be likely but we are not there yet.
At Belgorod, UA is both quantitatively and qualitatively superior.
And it is HIGHLY notable that RU is not advancing anywhere else.
This leads me to the fact that all information we receive about the West’s upcoming betrayal in negotiations is Russian psyops until it is no longer.
UA has played weak when building up capability and in recent months, huge amounts of equipment have been transferred, we know that and have discussed it often.
My thought was that they were setting up a strategic reserve, but I am beginning to suspect that they re-equipped existing brigades instead of a small winter bang.
Then they attack in combined units, pooling capabilities (companies, battalions) from different elite units and sending off a combined task force.
Do you know what Putin’s response was – an attempt to shoot an Oreshnik towards Kiev, you know this unstoppable ballistic missile that first exploded in the silo and then was launched but without warheads.
The idea was of course to fire a warning shot and try to scare the West into a lot of prohibitions.
The robot crashed in Russia in a cloud of fire, probably not nuclear-armed as it would have caused a much bigger blast.
Both embarrassing and ineffective by Putin and the West remains silent, right 🧐
So there are big things in motion –
-the West is arming Ukraine
-the West is silent as the refinery industry burns and bleeds and Ukraine continues to invade Russia.
-there is some kind of negotiation in the works and Putin is well on his way to losing all his leverage in the eyes of the West.
Zelensky has confirmed that he will push for a lasting and fair peace, I don’t think giving up all of eastern Ukraine is what he had in mind.
The wild card in the game is of course Trump, and to be honest, the information is now so contradictory that I want to wait a bit. One day it’s frozen fronts and the next Kellogg comes out and denies everything. Then there are supposed to be the toughest sanctions ever while he shuts down the RU corruption unit.
What can be stated, however, is that he is implementing very significant changes in the USA and I don’t think anyone today can foresee the consequences.
Yes, just like in Sweden, there is a great mishandling of tax money (Jens Nylander anyone, the man the media is trying to silence to death), but if you stir too much, the outcome may be something no one can predict.
Venezuela was the best country in South America in the 80s, Argentina was richer than Europe in the early 1900s, Bolivia was okay, Zimbabwe was okay – countries crash all the time.
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has proven to be crap and they are completely marginalized.
Spain and Portugal dominated the world and now Portugal is a nice holiday destination.
The USA can definitely shrink, and then we really hope that the EU takes over to challenge China and Russia, and we will get that multipolar world so there will be wars everywhere
Russia has started to withdraw its air defense units from Crimea 😲
You are reading the same information as I am and probably feel that this is the beginning of the end for Russia. The current situation is completely unsustainable for them, and if the West can just avoid being talked down by Russia in the coming months, this war is won, and Ukraine has achieved a resounding victory.
What was needed – well, for the West to lift all restrictions and stop playing games behind Putin’s back, for Ukraine to fight on equal terms without one hand tied behind its back.
We are witnessing history unfold, and it is a privilege to have followed this.
However, the West has always wavered and intervened to stop Ukraine whenever things are going too well, so there is a risk that they might do it again.
I actually have calming elevator music in the apartment provided by the company – a bit too loud but otherwise calming.
Right now, there is too much information for me to keep up with everything, and the focus is definitely on Kursk and the next step.
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Legendary Friday binge to say the least – the idea is that it should be recurring and start around 18:00.
Thinking about starting the Saturday drinking. There’s a lot of Obolon standing here, calling for liberation. 🍻
Decolonize Obolon Now ✊
And it’s a good thing for Ukraine – fighting for Ukraine never gets old.
🍻🍻
😃🍻👍
Trump is like Juholt when he was the party leader. A popcorn machine from which a lot of junk continuously pops out. Then everyone around has to go out and deny and explain.
The difference is that Juholt is actually a pretty nice guy, wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time, and had to run the gauntlet due to internal conflicts within the Social Democrats.
Trump doesn’t seem to be as nice, but there will likely be internal conflicts when it turns out that Musk gets what he points at while the voters get the crumbs.
Yes, Trump is dismantling the USA quite quickly right now.
Not necessarily bad for the EU maybe if we take over the baton?
Trump may be working for the EU?
We’ll see when it’s time to impose tariffs on the EU and what he wants in return to appease him. Personally, I hope that the EU unilaterally imposes high tariffs on Tesla so that a wedge is driven between Trump and Musk.
By the way, there’s a lot of nonsense about Europe, that we’re the worst. Like the meme with a spaceship on one side (USA) and a stuck lid on a milk carton on the other side. Everyone thinks it’s sooo telling. But you could just as easily make a picture with Americans secretly performing abortions with crochet hooks on one side and ASML’s lithography technology on the other.
Of course, Europe needs to address some of its problems, but as soon as the parameters are right, progress is quick regardless of the starting point – just look at Germany and Japan after the war.
Well, it wasn’t meant to be taken seriously, but he will definitely also swing towards Europe.
Thank you, Johan!
I suspect that Zelenskyj & Co understand exactly how to deal with Trump.
He is not a philanthropist or a mini-Gandhi. He is a businessman. UA is now flattering and enticing with mines that – besides money – can make the USA less dependent on China. Such things are probably much more valuable than turning Gaza into a tourist paradise.
What “business deal” can Vlad counter with? RU normally only makes deals involving violence or protection – a la the mafia.
“Hello Vlad! Little Zel and I are on the way to making a real win-win deal. You must back off from Donetsk and Luhansk, in that case – with or without violence. Do you perhaps have something to offer for me to change my mind?”
“Uh,…Syria?”
“Stop joking, Vlad. Give up your businesses in Africa so maybe I can at least let you use Crimea.”
🤣🤣 exact
From a reliable source, I can tell you that among the proposals the nominating committee in S came up with, there was at least one important person/organization within the movement who said, “no, that devil should not become chairman!” Because they had had a power struggle before. Juholt was the first on a long list that no one objected to. So, the competence was not to have had any power struggles. Also a damn criterion to be elected on…
🤣🤣
He became an ambassador in Iceland or something?
First Iceland and now South Africa and has published the magnificent work Herring Diplomacy. And despite me having completely the wrong party color, he seems to be very likable and not a completely bad ambassador and representative for the realm abroad!
Googled it a bit, one almost has to read
👍 Positive-positive!
I wonder if the Russians have been good at digging themselves in or if it’s difficult to do anything in secret. I would like to see Ukraine launch some rail attacks across the border in more places. It would force the Russians to spread out even more, and if they were to break through, it would be another Kursk.
If they don’t attack in other places, the West still has some kind of prohibition because logically that would be exactly it.
And Belarus.
SU-25 shot down. See Noel.
Now, by golly 💥💥💥
Soon, the fighter jets will be flying again.
Eagle S from a different perspective:
I have not seen any attempts whatsoever from the opposition to score political points on Swedish “leniency” (such opportunities are rarely missed) and neither have I heard any complaints from the Latvian cable owner about the lax Swedish legal system. Why?
I believe that this was settled amicably with all stakeholders informed. The perpetrator avoided losing face but had to buy their way out and “guarantee” that something similar would not happen again.
Sweep it under the rug and charge a good price, then the prosecutor was tasked with looking foolish but someone had to be sacrificed to calm the waters.
We will see if this is true when the book is released.
An interesting angle to say the least, it was released when the prosecutor dismissed it a bit too quickly but you are certainly right 😀
It must then be visible in the next quarterly report of the Latvian cable owner, right? Either there is a significant write-down without offsetting revenue, or there isn’t.
Then we keep an eye on it 🧐
Could it not be an insurance case or is sabotage not covered?