Ukraine daily update January 16, 2025

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Here you have North Korean high knees over the fields and they die in droves 💥💥💥

Who is laughing today, is there anyone who wrote in 2022 about “screaming saber-waving high knees attacking over the fields,” who 🧐

Today is a special day for posts being published on the site johanno1.se where there is primarily a comment field that one can register for, which is easy to read.

The website got that address because I thought “worldleadingolympicchampionsineverything.org” was too hard to remember, and above all, the address should be humble and professional.

Legends like myself can be found there together with Nelson Mandela and President Carter, and someone else who has a habit of always tearing me down 👍

Then Belgium’s former president also does some recordings with ratings on dark beer types.

Substack and Bluesky comment fields are purely diabolical and there is never any overview, and both have been heavily commented on since last autumn.

Therefore, after clinical tests in a world-leading laboratory in Luxembourg, I concluded that comment fields are half the fun, and that I have been missing one since last autumn.

If you want, you can take the big risk and try to write a comment on the site and see what happens, otherwise it can continue as before and I will answer as best I can.

Release party between 17:00 – 17:30, cheese puffs and non-alcoholic cider in plastic cups, we eat the cheese puffs straight from the bag so please wash your hands beforehand. I’ll bring a stack of napkins so if you want, you can also have a napkin in your hand to pour out the cheese puffs – try not to drop them because they always get messy when stepped on the carpet.

I and maybe Matsextrude (Extrude) will be there, he is of course also modest in real life but has put his soul into the site he built with tools from NASA and the computer from Apollo 17 that he stole from the museum in the late 90s.

Finland is clear about Eagle S cutting underwater cables (plural). That was settled.

Since the discussion is now hot about Sweden not being in danger of going to war after Ulf’s speech at the conference.

What do you call this?

Did the Soviet Union even carry out this many open sabotage acts during the Cold War?

(I’m not just talking about the cables now but about sabotage in total).

I must remind you that Russian vessels suitable for underwater work have been located over all cables in the Atlantic as well, but they haven’t reached there yet, it’s probably a bit harder to cut with anchors.

And civilian vessels with anchors have been shown to provide some kind of alibi for so long that almost all cables could be cut before Finland had the audacity to act.

This is Russia’s “gas weapon 2024” which is the last thing they can fire this winter as everything else has been played out.

Or, they can increase sabotage in EU countries, but this is the lowest risk for the highest possible return.

The goal is to stop the electricity transmission from the overproduction in the north down to the continent.

(good for us in the electricity underclass maybe, go Putin ✊).

And especially to the Baltics, who are supposed to cut the last lines to Russia now in February.

The hope is that the electricity prices soar so that citizens go mad (the electricity underclass) and our industries are knocked out.

Germany has succeeded in this all on its own after Russia’s previous influence operation to shut down nuclear power.

Then Russia tried to target the Swedish cement industry with Cementa on Gotland and the forestry industry with untouched forests.

And all business moved to Russia instead, replacing our nuclear power with flue gas that Greenpeace marketed as an environmentally friendly alternative.

Our politicians are not idiots so quite a bit of incentive in the form of money has probably been sent as well.

Maybe some threats too?

And above all, pressure from the organizations they control – the left, the right, and the Islamists.

Who find their big issue for the term – is it wetlands, untouched forests, sea stacks, nuclear power, the Palestine issue, or something worse that gives them the right to bypass democracy to save the world – every time and the same gang.

Russia accounts for an extremely large part of the problems we have in the West, was it 80% someone claimed?

BUT have you also noticed how Russia/Putin/GRU et al are starting to lose control of the situation?

Until the start of the war, they did pretty much as they pleased, and Putin got away with it so easily in 2014.

The amount of sabotage in the West and the amount of subversive activity and undermining of our democracies is ABSOLUTELY STUNNING. It is so much that I wonder about the motivation of Europe’s elected officials not to do as Finland.

But Russia/Putin has always had a firm grip on the reins and likely been able to calculate outcomes quite easily. They stay just behind the actual red line.

Then the war started, and they had to constantly seek help and guarantees from the USA to continue to have predictability and control when Ukraine started to become unpredictable.

FSB didn’t pay the bribes and the military, who had booked all the tables at all the restaurants in Kiev for a week after, went and died on the roads leading to the capital. Except in the south where the bribes were paid and they crossed the Dnieper River at lunchtime on the first day.

Several times, the USA almost had to save Russia from crashing completely on its own – VDV is probably the worst in this context, but the invasion of Russia in winter 2023 comes in as a close second.

Because guess if it was in some kind of coordination with the coup that then played out in June 2023 – vodka run.

Or when the USA kept leaking Ukraine’s battle plans to Russia so they kept Kursk 2024 secret from the USA, catching Putin completely off guard – it’s nothing less than treason that Sullivan and Biden have been up to.

Now the EU has broken away with Finland and France at the forefront, and Scholz and Biden are on their way out.

Early signs indicate that Trump may not be very fun for Putin here – but I’m quite cautious about commenting on him at all until we have something to go on.

And at the fronts, there is no progress at all despite escalating losses and Ukraine’s capabilities are increasing.

And the strategic drone war and partisan war have COMPLETELY spun out of control for Putin.

We have now reached 2025 where Putin looks weak – the sharks are circling in the water and smelling blood.

In 2023, he had the FSB on his side and the entire coup was thwarted before it even started, and the subsequent purge was enormous.

But there are many who would like to take over the country of Russia and leaving Ukraine and starting to plunder the country again with new leadership is attractive to many.

Putin has lost control and it’s a matter of time in my assessment, and this time the USA or EU will not try to soften the fall at all with small cushions.

But yes, the key is not for the West to once again come to Putin’s rescue when he has dug himself too deep and is starting to get worried.

Biden proudly declared that he alone had avoided a nuclear war with Russia – we may have to wait a few months to hear a dumber statement than that.

According to Zelensky, RU has 600,000 soldiers in the Ukrainian army (guessing that FSB, Rosgvardia, the navy, the air force, etc. are not included here) and UA has 880,000.

First and foremost, this means that quantity is not a quality for Russia because they do not have the quantity on their side, right 🤣

But above all, it means that it is the West that has supported Russia and ensured that they have not lost by –

-Geographically preventing Ukraine from attacking at attractive locations so Putin could concentrate forces elsewhere, but Ukraine has been forced to defend these locations as Putin has not had these geographical limitations. They have given Putin a local quantitative advantage by forcing Ukraine into certain areas.

-They (USA and probably also Scholz) have leaked Ukraine’s battle plans so Putin could counter them in good time.

-They have prevented Ukraine from taking out the FAB bomber planes that replaced the artillery when it was swept away, and have been Russia’s most important indirect capability that has enabled Russia to advance and hindered UA’s offensive operations. FABs are terrible.

-They have held back promised equipment until Ukraine could no longer sustain their violent offensives.

For example, Lex Gripen – the USA waves the contract to stop something that would make a difference. The USA is like the bank, not your friend, and I think everyone understands that Trump is not our friend either, except for a few who are enchanted by maga. It’s best to assume that we ourselves will solve the problems in our own backyard now.

But that was 2024, it’s behind us – now when everyone wants to talk about Ukraine folding. The fronts hold, Ukraine is on the rise, and Russia is declining.

Putin is in for a very classic “read the room” moment here.

He thinks it’s still 2022 and will get a big blow in a few months, to everyone’s great joy.

Russia is being droned VERY heavily right now, billions worth are going up in smoke daily, and if you remember someone else who also talked about “drone swarms” early on, who’s laughing at it now 🧐
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1879081711029657760

To cross the Dnepr in a cloud of drones and electronic warfare is not unrealistic at all, but everything has its time, and not when Johan No.1 thinks it would be good to be featured on his new website.

I find it very difficult to find anything negative anymore – yes, the West has made life unnecessarily difficult for Ukrainian children in their boundless goodness, but that is over and all arrows are green and pointing slightly upwards, except for Putin whose arrows are very red and pointing downwards.

Just a reminder that on Monday it’s January 20th, and has Kursk been retaken?

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96 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update January 16, 2025”

    1. johan No.1

      The purpose here is to have a comment function that is manageable because many have written insightful comments on Substack or Bluesky that just get lost in the noise.

    2. johan No.1

      Forgot that you will receive a coveted bronze medal, Dengamle got the gold, otherwise he will be too grumpy, and Matsextrude has also commented as a test to build the page.

      If DN and SvD start reaching out for long interviews and the lottery wants you as the poster boy for 2025, it would be nice if you mentioned the page if you have time.

    1. johan No.1

      Then you get a permanent Nylander for the first comments on the website, congratulations and I think Aftonbladet might get in touch during the day 👍

      Yes, Bluesky and Substack are good but I have missed a comment section that is easy to overview

  4. johan No.1

    We’ll see if there’s time for a Friday binge, yesterday I was so happy about the website and the new Italian employers are so annoying that I took Friday with some tall cans of Mariestad and Norrlands Guld and then I wanted to vary a bit so I got sour cream chips and ranch dip.

    Otherwise, it should be barbecue chips but you have to dare something new sometimes otherwise you get stuck.

    1. StureDahlstrom

      Left an alias as a clue – picked up any book yet?
      Congratulations on the page – straight blog career comin’ up!

      Totally irrelevant info – left the job this morning, turned on my heel to the boss at the new job, texted in sick and now on board this ship! (enough with the bullying, exploitation, control absurdity, and micromanagement folly a’la(Allah) “functional stupidity” – I decline.

      …next – pizza slice in the microwave as the first consolation measure – DONE!

      1. johan No.1

        I have also done that a few times and I’m pretty close again to having had enough 😀
        Pizza heating in the microwave is almost like barbecue chips and ranch dip 👍

        1. StureDahlstrom

          It could be age and experience that risk blowing the top off – 67th here.
          If one means cool copious amounts of crap over the years and now it’s hissing out (inner image of manure spreader). Cracking, imploding. His own line has been “fizzle out” so far as a description of the Self and the Worldview.

          Keeping the lid on and an elegantly placed prostate cancer in combination with cognitive decline as an occasionally saving way out….

          …hmm maybe it’s time for chips and dip step 2 therapy 🤔

    1. johan No.1

      He was online yesterday and completely slammed my post, saying that his grandmother writes better 🤬

      Welcome Lynx, great that everyone is keeping the same nickname 👍

    2. johan No.1

      You received the “bragdguldet” for the first comment ever on the page even though it was a low blow.
      Right is right, but it’s hard to swallow…

      Right now, I’m struggling a bit with the format on the website versus Substack where I’ve written the posts. Someone might suggest that I post them on the website first, which has a much better function where you don’t need to add the links separately and it only takes 20 minutes – I’ll consider it.

    1. johan No.1

      Yes, you and Jimi Hendrix (the name sounds familiar…) are permanent top 10, which is extremely desirable. Those positions could probably be sold for at least six-figure amounts in the future 👍

  9. johan No.1

    Seven out of the top spots for a lifelong life of luxury are now taken, 8, 9, and 10 are still available.
    After that, you have the right to print t-shirts for the whole family where you can write the number and “world’s best” after it.

    1. Jacobus CXII.No.7

      I have now outsourced the task of designing the t-shirt “Jacobus CXII.No.7 World’s Best Edition”. I wonder if it’s possible to include my nieces and nephews?

  12. johan No.1

    alright we have 8-10, I will now endure a hailstorm of criticism from “someone” but also expect responses since it is the first comments ever.

    8 – Bolin119
    9 – StureDahlstrom
    10 – YM

    Welcome to a lifelong life of luxury starting after the weekend 👍

    1. StureDahlstrom

      9th grade says – Honor and confetti in the air!
      Sat 🎯 after the pizza coma and the couch position.
      Oh, gravity my old enemy!

    2. YM

      Yes, yes, it would be too much to ask of an essayist with world-leading analyses from a boy’s room in the parents’ basement that he should be able to tell the time.
      One must accept certain injustices.
      Hailing from the hail,
      “Someone”

      1. MatsExtrude

        Don’t trust him, they will go straight to paying for the repair of his downspout, and if there’s anything left, it will go towards the electricity bills! 😂

  14. alfaomega

    Finally……I like this format much better than bsky, ever since you left C, I have missed a sensible layout regarding the comments.
    You are going from strength to strength 😀
    The content and analysis as usual crystal clear, and great to see Dengamle back in action.
    Well done!

  15. iamwhoiam

    Fun Johan! I’ve heard rumors that it’s good to own your platform. How big is the stage at the beginning, there should be room for one more if they squeeze together above, right?

  19. N Eklund

    Nice with another text and nice with your own website!

    Had an audio text from Kvartal, written by Stefan Hedlund, splashing among downloaded episodes in the podcast player. The text is from April 22, 2024, and he writes, among other things:

    “Deputy Defense Minister Celeste Wallander served until 2022 as chair of the US-Russia Foundation, whose mandate was to promote relations between Russia and the USA. In Sullivan’s circle is Samuel Charap, a researcher from the Rand Corporation who not only has a history as a member of the Russian Valdai Club (Putin’s club for Western-friendly Russia experts). He has also published a significant number of articles advocating against arms deliveries to Ukraine and for a negotiated solution to be reached.”

    He further writes that, according to the White House log, Charap has been a frequent visitor.

    If these had been close to Trump, it would probably have been more noticed.

    Then we can remember back to Trump’s first impeachment. At least part of it was about Trump stopping Javelins to Ukraine. Obama had previously stopped these with the argument that it could escalate the situation as they were offensive weapons (heard that before?). Trump’s justification was that he wanted to investigate what he thought looked like corruption (I believe it was an advisor to Biden who was also involved in a company that exported weapons). Trump sent the weapons anyway, which some have claimed helped prevent the Russians from taking Kyiv.

    1. johan No.1

      Interesting with the pro-Russian stance around Sullivan. Most of our elected officials can be influenced by experts, and if you’re in the Chosen Club, you’re probably bought.
      We’ll probably have to wait to find out exactly how things have unfolded, but it’s clear that Biden and Sullivan have been directly harmful to Ukraine.

      We’ll soon see where Trump is heading, but the EU has already taken the first steps towards supporting Ukraine, so my guess is that the impact will be marginal.

  20. Analytikern

    Nice with this initiative from you, Johan No.1, and Matsextrude!

    I hope you don’t overwork the website (a “wall” every day is not necessary) and that you have the energy to keep the comment field clean (this will take time). – Got quite tired of the comments where we all have been hanging out for a few years and practically only read the “Yellow walls” the last six months. After that, there hasn’t been much at all.

    Confirmation bias is always a danger, but it’s still nice to see that you are not alone “in the boat” with a slightly different opinion. – Mainstream/Old media is so darn tiresome. Not even when Gudrun P, Carl-Oscar B, or Pålle speak up, in highly public settings, do they get it…

    I hope a forum like this becomes a counterbalance, in the tone that Johan No.1 maintains, and I will follow along.

    1. johan No.1

      Yes, Matsextrude should get full credit.

      I have accepted that one per day is impossible if it’s not your job and not on the side of your job.
      Also, I’m starting a new job, or have started, and flying next week, so I’ll do as many as I can.

      The important thing is that the comment field has a lot of interested people contributing so it becomes lively, and those who have been in today are all from the first row.

      We continue and hope for a good discussion in the thread after the posts – it’s a big part of the enjoyment.

  21. StureDahlstrom

    General Cavoli’s speech – anyone?
    Is NATO’s carte blanche’ worrisome?
    Asking in consideration of son and upcoming conscription – advise against/advise for?

    1. johan No.1

      I quickly googled it, but I am of the opinion that the West can still stamp out the major conflict of our time by letting Ukraine completely crush the Russian bastards.

      Then the son will have to prepare for a war that will never come.

      What kind of service will it be?

  22. johan No.1

    The release party was a roaring success. Matsextrude dropped both the cider mug and the bag of cheese puffs, and then a gang came and robbed me.
    The party was at Skarpnäck subway station, on the platform towards the city, so maybe one could have expected that.

    But we had fun for a quarter of an hour at least, both of us, it was successful.

    1. MatsExtrude

      Yes, felt good, fun party!
      But I’m afraid I got lost, probably went in the wrong direction.
      Frantically holding onto a lifebuoy by some lake, I think I saw Flatenbadet on a sign.
      I’ve lost my phone, can someone maybe call a taxi for me?

      I can’t stand cheese puffs, will never eat cheese puffs again!!!

    2. StureDahlstrom

      😅
      Tried to involve DG, but unfortunately it clashed with the sing-along in the living room (sacred moment).
      Known for outshouting EVERYONE when something with Lasse Berghagen is played – he fixes his eyes on the others and yells. Actually surprisingly pitch-perfect, with the false teeth clattering in one hand like castanets – truly a sight!
      …so unfortunately, was planning to surprise with the classic salt sticks.

  23. JIMIHENDRIX

    At Cornucopia, I managed to use Lundgren’s “Cornucopia Enhancement Suite” on Safari/Mac by adding it as a userscript.
    It’s indispensable. I thought of trying it here as well. I made a copy of it and just changed the web address in the JavaScript, but no luck, it wasn’t that easy…
    I’m not good at that stuff, just cheating. Hopefully, Lundgren himself logs in and fixes it 😎

    1. MatsExtrude

      I was thinking of checking if it would be possible to build the equivalent directly into the site when there is time (and energy).
      But the easiest would of course be to reuse his plugin.

    1. johan No.1

      I will make an attempt, I downed all the tall cans yesterday and today I snatched what was left of my wife’s wine – it’s unclear if I have any credit left to buy more alcohol.

    1. Lynx

      Thank you MXT, a solid line-up. This year’s parade will feature Nordic equipment rolling in front of a stage where little Kim and Xi are enjoying themselves.

    2. johan No.1

      Yes, good point, 86 comments, of which I probably wrote 82, and nothing about the Ukraine war 😬
      I’m almost at the point where I have to kickban myself for going off-topic…

      History is being written when 1670 barbarians have advanced on 124 soft vehicles and died.
      Mechanized warfare seems to be no more?

      The losses they suffer are probably when a brigade carries out a mechanized attack and incurs around +50 casualties.
      The Russian doctrine was artillery and then overwhelming with heavy vehicles – Ukraine has forced them to make significant changes here.

      Going back to the Tannenberg doctrine

  29. Folke

    How fun that you’ve created your own page! Now I’ll have to spend time here too. I must be up to two hours in Ukraine per day now.

    Was the release party on the couch yesterday or today? Oh well, who cares. I’ll have a drink anyway.

    Glory to Ukraine!

    1. johan No.1

      The release party is over, I got robbed, and MXT wandered off to Flatenbadet.
      It was the two of us, but we had some non-alcoholic cider.

      Maybe not daily posts, but we’re still going strong.

  32. Gammelmormor

    Congratulations on having your own page, Johan.
    It will take a lot of time to read two pages now, not good for old folks to sit,
    but what the h-ll, you have to stay updated. 🙂

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