What a chaotic day with the journey…
The day before heading to Lisbon for the hotel when the flight was at 06:00, slept a few hours because we were late as usual since we had convinced ourselves that the bus was better than a taxi – it wasn’t and since the employer pays, it was an even dumber decision, unclear how we ended up in that stroke of genius but we have seen all bus terminals in the country anyway.
Had booked the airplane seats for the long flight to the Caribbean and thought I would be smart – a seat available next to my wife in a row of four seats that might be empty so she could spread out. Ended up with a 200kg huge Caribbean guy who immediately started a big argument with us but I managed fine because I was sitting two seats away and had a peaceful trip 👍
Arrived in the Caribbean at 21:30, the plane was late and I had forgotten that you have to do an arrival e-ticket, or thought it was a one-time thing but it wasn’t.
Standing with the damn phone next to the passport control officer and find, I think, the page on the internet. The first three hits on Google are the same with the logo for migration, the flag, and a .org address.
Of course, it’s a scam site that charges and after I spent about half an hour filling everything in and trying to pay with my wife’s three Visa cards, she asks the officer who points to a QR code turned away at the counter and says it’s free and takes two minutes.
Down here they like to mess around like this and tease when they can, the passport control officer smiled with her whole face, the family was moderately amused by my e-ticket skills.
It was the same when we were leaving the Caribbean a month ago and it almost turned into a fight between the check-in counter and my wife.
The boss also called when I arrived and said “did the trip go well, when do I get the rent” – a healthy relationship to say the least 😶
The quota is already filled – now I’m going to be an insufferable expat wreaking havoc with everyone until Christmas. Alone in the office as my colleague is on vacation for a few weeks so I’ve been sitting for two days drinking Italian coffee and sulking in my solitude but now I’m back on track, it takes more to bring me down ✊✊
I believe that just like with other crises, different forces are pulling in the same direction in an unholy alliance to not confront Russia –
-the military-industrial complex would like to see increased stress levels over time, if Ukraine had emerged victorious in 2022-2023, the military-industrial complex wouldn’t get the hundreds of billions of euros they are getting now and money talks no matter how much you wish it wasn’t like that.
-the USA probably wants a boogey-man again, and probably also wants more control over the EU which a Russian threat would provide. Then they would be needed as during the Cold War.
-leaders are cowardly, doing nothing is an attractive decision as long as you can get away with it.
-Russia reinforces everything in its subversive activities and those who start to stand out too much risk being crushed and silenced. We have been through that but a few illegal movies of minors on the work computer that automatically triggers the IT department usually works wonders and if it doesn’t, then the media gets an anonymous tip.
-money and bribes, many have been bought. For example, the partner’s company receives a few million for each lecture that takes place in an empty meeting room once a month.
The result is that in the West we have essentially stood by and watched as Ukraine is devastated and the only reason Russia is not advancing along Ukraine’s western border today is because the Ukrainian spirit is like the Finnish one, unbreakable despite countless broken promises and stabs in the back.
But what happened to Finland?
Twice they had to back down and agree to a ceasefire for a shorter period than this war has lasted.
So far, Ukraine has refused to back down but they are not making much progress at the front lines and the internal pressure is also increasing.
We in Europe should absolutely not assume that Ukraine can continue like this indefinitely because they cannot. No one knows the end date but it will come suddenly and be irreversible.
Then, on that day, we will be left holding the bag and if we couldn’t even agree to support Ukraine so they could die for our freedom – does anyone think we can handle that mess already?
Last time we didn’t do so well…
-As is known, I have discussed a NATO test in the Baltics and China’s attack on Taiwan.
-We have previously discussed that Ukraine would like to start a popular revolution in Russia with all the republics and -stans.
-A few weeks ago, we discussed economic warfare – a financial attack on Europe after a black swan event, which could be an attack on the Baltics.
-There are also reasons to believe that China would like to occupy Europe if they were to attack Taiwan.
Where we are in marine construction in the backyard of the USA, the French withdrew and the Americans also wanted to leave when they heard that the Chinese would bid on the project. The Chinese construction method was also superior and on July 25th we will see what the prices are.
I have been following CHEC since 2006 and today they are difficult to compete with not only in price but also in technical solutions.
They have such large operations and have scaled up so they simply have everything and can put together a superior technical solution when others have to work with what they have available.
I am extrapolating without knowing but I guess that the military industry and technology have made roughly the same journey together with the defense forces but that they must catch up from primarily the USA.
The masses keep saying all the time – “no, that can’t happen” but if you look back since 2022, we have a war in Ukraine, Russia has actively tried to overthrow Romania and Moldova, their subversive activities in Europe are absolutely extreme and our politicians have a hard time defending themselves and there are many open acts of sabotage – 11 attacks on power cables in the Baltic Sea and 30 on mobile towers in southern Sweden. Not to mention the GPS interference from Kaliningrad.
On October 7th, a war broke out between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah which has also been devastating for civilians. Russia was behind it. Hamas was in Russia in the spring of 2023, videos during the attack were in Russian, and tunnels have been built by China, and it was fertilized with Russian equipment. So our aid money has gone to Russia and China to build up this capability against Israel but maybe that’s over now?
India – Pakistan probably have a war but calmed down after a big shock that shocked both into passivity?
Then the classic “BRICS can never have their own currency”, have you seen how the dollar is doing now with Trump?
Or how China has been able to withhold minerals, metals, and other resources that they control almost 100% of on the world market. We have already been through that.
So if you control a lot of important minerals/metals, manufacturing, expertise (for manufacturing), and other things, and you have acquired an insane amount of gold and are a group consisting of 30 countries – haven’t you reached a point where you can create your own functioning currency?
The wars in Africa that plunge the world’s most fragile state formations into chaos again, right now the refugee flows are increasing, and of course, Russia will test it again since it worked beyond expectations in 2015, and Europe is still struggling to deal with the consequences of what Russia actively promoted.
BREXIT in 2016, right after the refugee crisis, has Russian fingerprints everywhere, but I often forget about BREXIT.
We are on an upward curve, and the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan or Russia testing NATO is higher than them not doing it. China has even built “mulberry ports,” so the intention is quite clear, I think. And most importantly – if you want peace, you prepare for war like Finland.
You don’t stand at an unguarded border hoping the opponent won’t attack when he says he will. Europe was wrong in February 2022, and Macron/Scholz even ended up doing Putin’s bidding.
Do you take a chance again with the next country when Russia is clearly increasing its capabilities in the region?
Almost as if Ekspress has been reading johanno1.se?
“Therefore, the most plausible scenario is thought to be an attempt to seize a smaller area of land, with the aim of making demands on the West like a hostage-taker. This would sow fear in societies and split NATO allies into several camps around the question of what military response should be considered proportional”.
Or this one –
“General Ben Hodges put another fly in the ointment. If the conflict were to start with hybrid operations or a so-called cold start, there could be decision-makers in the West whose first natural reaction would be to not bring additional forces here quickly for fear of provoking Russia”.
Hodges has definitely been in here reading 😶
How did low-affect response work out in Ukraine, asking for a friend?
An attack on the Baltics will not be preceded by any military buildup along the border, but the nuclear forces in Kaliningrad and missile units in Kaluga will be grouped. Ideally, this should happen before and during an exercise, and Zapad 25 could be a good excuse, for example?
https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-expansion-at-5-russian-nuclear-sites-near-europe
Has the nuclear threat worked against our support for Ukraine?
Is it worth trying again?
Not fortifying the eastern border of the Baltics with existing forces in Europe is absolutely insane in my opinion, but evidently, we will not do it.
Regarding Ukraine, we have long ago sounded the alarm that Trump is playing a double game with Putin.
Almost every week, we have this confirmed, and there is no longer any reason to believe otherwise.
Right now, Trump is backtracking and promising tough sanctions against Russia, soon.
He is doing this to lull Europe back to sleep.
However, there is a certain risk that this is something bigger than we thought – I still haven’t heard a reasonable explanation as to why the US president, who has escaped exactly everything his opponents have tried to bring him down with, and that was a lot, would be connected to a loser like Putin.
Trump doesn’t like a loser, and he has loyalty to others like a mayfly, but Russia has been given new chances every month.
Yes, he is driving the formal US line they pursued in an entire war, but it’s even worse.
Why – hotel tapes or money don’t add up because he has both and gets plenty from MENA and everyone else, and his pump-and-dump of stock markets, crypto, and victory perfume brings in billions.
One thought could be that he needs Russia’s expertise to break the current power structure in the USA, but if so, wouldn’t he have released the Epstein and P Diddy information because that group is practically fully represented there?
He would have to filter out his own missteps 😀
Ghislaine Maxwell is in jail, but it has completely died down, there have been songs written about P Diddy’s parties, but it’s also completely silent today.
Anecdotally, we have a pretty good idea of who participated in Epstein’s child rapes, but apart from Prince Andrew, no one has really faced consequences, right?
Recently, the DoD released a video from outside Epstein’s cell to prove that no one entered it and it was a suicide.
Imagine the high blood pressure when ALL MEDIA IN THE WORLD reported at the time that the cameras weren’t working during the suicide.
As far as I can remember, the USA has not done anything good for Europe, and during the Cold War, they behaved just like Russia does today, and did during the Cold War.
We had a post about it and all the coups and revolutions they started just to steal wealth in another country.
So a thought that has gradually emerged in me over time is that we would need Russia for a black swan event against Europe.
The Cold War is over, so the USA no longer controls Europe, and we have formed in the EU, which is formidable and a threat to everyone – the USA, China, and Russia.
We also have a long history of not behaving very well towards the rest of the world, and probably no one has really forgotten that, including the above trio.
Taking the first hit to trigger a global recession is not unreasonable at all, and that’s what I thought Trump was doing to take down China, but then it didn’t turn out that way for various reasons, perhaps mostly because he was about to crash the USA instead?
But Europe?
Based on what we have seen so far from Trump, do we believe he wholeheartedly supports us?
If not, then he would need Russia for a bellicose black swan against Europe to be able to economically hit us as the USA is known to do.
They pull the rug out from under us in the midst of panic over an attack in the Baltics, and then they wait for the crash, which comes with a lot of power outages.
Together with a cacophony of Trump’s new tariffs, threats of sanctions against EU leaders, and everything withdrawn to reinforce the downturn.
Then they step in and buy up our infrastructure and companies for pennies to the dollar, as they did in 2008.
And the bonus that Europe doesn’t get uppity in the future.
Considering our support for Ukraine, Russia and China want this, and if Trump also wants it, it’s a critical situation.
Just as someone wrote in the comments on the world-leading johanno1.se – Trump is keeping everyone on tenterhooks about what his real intentions are with Ukraine, “in two weeks I will decide” is becoming a bit of a classic.
And then Europe waits to see what happens, and then they wait again, again, and again.
That has to be admitted has worked more than legally well actually in Europe. Probably it’s just too attractive to wait for someone else to take action and not do anything yourself.
So Trump has all the time that – “in two weeks then damn it we invade Russia” that keeps rolling forward all the time and puts us on pause.
For my part, I feel that more and more responsibility lies on us, we have been through this many times and the material is already available in Europe today even if it was best business to give new contracts to the war material industry.
Is it the right strategy to wait?
I don’t think so because there is always some country that takes the hit, Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Africa, Syria, India-Pakistan, and all subversive activities in our countries.
As long as there are plenty of victims, it can never be right to look the other way.
Yes, I find it hard to digest that Europe has managed to remain so passive when global risk is taking off like a spear and the easiest way to deflate the balloon would have been to make Russia collapse.
China is probably quite satisfied so far – the USA and Europe are depleting their weapon stockpiles and spending huge sums to confront Russia, which also becomes weaker.
Is there any kind of middle ground here that we in Europe can choose?
To keep on good terms with China and come out on top?
From what I’ve seen of China, they do what’s best for them so probably not.
This is a power struggle and the USA, China, and Russia have all stood up. Either we do the same or we will be someone else’s punching bag again, that’s my guess.
Didn’t the USA bankroll Hitler’s rise to power, I seem to remember, and then crush the UK with loans, which was probably one of the purposes of their intrigues during the war?
In 2008, Goldman Sachs et al. were in with bad advice to the PIIGS and then bought up their infrastructure dirt cheap.
The same thing is happening in Ukraine – they are constantly forced to open up to investors to receive aid and slowly but surely land and companies are being bought up by the West.
The USA, just like the bank, is not our friend, but it requires that we do something too – yes, we could do like Finland and fortify the border and have a million men and women trained and mobilizable at short notice.
But we don’t have that in the Baltics, the border is undefended.
In Ukraine, Russia is still advancing.
Moldova and Romania are busy with subversive activities from Russia and are a suicide away from falling, Poland now has a president who is not EU-friendly, right?
Now Czechia is at risk of becoming pro-Russian.
The Balkans are easy targets.
Spain has oriented itself towards China.
Kier Starmer has existential problems as he believes it’s good times and doesn’t need to do anything, and Macron seems to have existential problems with his wife.
Merz has come out very strong, but there is probably a real risk of an internal political scandal if he hasn’t behaved impeccably throughout his career, GRU has the pictures and videos and is waiting for the right moment.
An interesting detail about Trump’s tariffs – when I was going to buy something from the UK for 2400 SEK, I ended up with an extra tax of 850 SEK because they are not part of the EU 😀
Of course, I didn’t know that and was very happy with the purchase until the extra bill came from DHL 😭
Nothing really looks better and “fatigue” is starting to spread in Europe where we are probably tricked into believing things are going better because we read less?
But everything is actually continuing with the global escalation curve and we remain passive.
Russia has found a pace that works, robots and shaheds are high-intensity but they manage to build up a stockpile on top of that.
North Koreans, Laotians (?) and now 1 million Indians who presumably provide border protection at the northern border as soon as they are mustered by force 😀
Then you have a few hundred thousand minors from occupied areas who have been trained for three years – half a year’s consumption.
The unwanted children in Russia are not over yet.
And they are building up their strategic offensive reserves.
And Belarus has now reasonably trained its defense forces?
Trump’s game plan is for Europe to keep sleeping as long as possible so Putin can continue as long as possible.
I’m not dumber than to understand that not fortifying the Baltics is a tactic, but what signal does that send to Putin?
The nuclear threat has been effective for +3 years.
For three years, Europe has been fooled into doing nothing, and Trump is on Putin’s side, while Starmer, Macron, and Merz have already embarrassed themselves when the “tough sanctions, the worst of the year” that were supposed to come “like a ton of bricks straight to Putin’s head” if he didn’t respect the ceasefire on March 12 had zero consequences when Putin stood there grinning and took a step over the red line.
I think we understood the mechanisms from day one in this war to some extent if you go back and look at that other blog that is not world-leading.
It’s worrying that it has taken +3 years and our elected officials still either don’t understand, don’t want to, or can’t make the tough decisions.
A lot of what we believed about ourselves has fallen, and if we see it, the Axis of Evil sees it too, and the non-mural filth is only 1/30 of them roughly.
I have the distinct feeling that it’s balancing in 2025, either the Axis of Evil is pushed back into the pit or they take off like a handful of ants released on the ground and everything goes beyond the West’s ability to control (adequately).
On a couple of occasions, I have already wondered if we are beyond the point of no return, but a hanged Putin will come suddenly and some genius at Bluesky suggested that Xi got a new overcoat.
But the West must show its fangs and extend its claws – unless we do that, this will not end, and there are living children who are tortured, raped, and murdered in front of their parents every year because Europe cannot act responsibly.
War is absolutely terrible, and every year it continues is completely unnecessary because Europe cannot act responsibly.
I am starting to have some hope for Ukraine – Turkey and with the help of China’s brilliant plan for everywhere that doesn’t involve the USA or Europe at all, it could become something.
After the latest work meeting, the message was that the site is still in the red financially for the whole year in direct costs, and I saw that some subscribers had unsubscribed from Substack during the absence – now we are back at full speed if you want to reactivate your subscriptions or donate again 😀
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N Slobozhansky-Kursk 21↗️💥
S Slobozhansky 8↘️
Kupyansk 5
Lyman 32💥💥
Siverskyi 12↗️💥
Kramatorsk 4
Toretsk 8
Pokrovsk 59💥💥💥
Novopavlivka 30💥💥
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 0 (corrected)
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 11💥↗️ (corrected)
👍
In total, the losses of the Russian invaders over the past day amount to 1,040 people. Ukrainian soldiers also destroyed two tanks, seven armoured combat vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 222 unmanned aerial vehicles, 14 missiles and 76 units of the occupiers’ motor vehicles.
👍
The yellow wall is back with a vengeance! 👍👍👍
Worthwhile analysis and one becomes, to say the least, worried/frustrated about Europe’s tardiness/lameness/cowardice, which is not a new phenomenon. Stand up, Europe! That is the only safe answer right now. The only thing we can control. Everything else is in the hands of various troublemakers. There is nothing to lose by taking the bull by the horns, but everything to lose by continued passivity. Everything, even if the USA were to intervene, because then, as stated in today’s analysis, it will come at a high price.
Remove von der Leyen! To me, she embodies the passive European technocrat type.
KAB continues to remain at a relatively low level. I guess they don’t dare to fly too close anymore.
The artillery keeps pounding with just over 5,000 per day while the drones are slowly increasing and now averaging around 4,000 per week (at the end of 2024 it was below 2,000).
AFU “In total, 214 combat clashes were recorded yesterday.
The enemy launched three rockets and 77 aviation strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, using 18 rockets and dropping 111 controlled bombs. In addition, carried out 5539 shells, 92 of which were from jet fire systems, and recruited 3822 kamikaze drones.”
The NATO countries will pay for the continued US military aid to Ukraine, says President Donald Trump in an interview with NBC News.
— omni