Ukraine daily update July 14, 2025

Today we will try to go through what should happen in the future and lead to Ukraine’s big win, but first I just want to mention that Jan W posted a comment on the world-leading johanno1.se that the IEA wrote that Russian exports have gone from 10 million barrels/day in 2022 to 9.2 million barrels/day today.

So that’s how reality looks, and the EU is still buying Russian crude oil, for example.

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So this thing with Russia’s imminent collapse vs. them receiving $65.49 X 9.2 million = +600,000,000 USD per day straight into the war industry from, among others, the EU is somewhat contradictory.

EU has also bought Russian oil refined in India and rebranded as Indian, so we probably account for more of Russian cash than is directly apparent.

Clip Ragnar’s wings and dare to go back to the morning coffee breaks without having to sit there feeling inferior because he’s better informed than you 👍

Ukrinform or Deepstate is not fun reading, and Orban continues as if nothing has happened.

So I am slowly coming to the realization that Ukraine must take the step themselves, and Trump is probably the trigger that will set everything in motion because he does everything openly in his infinite arrogance.

Putin has all his competent departments for subversive activities supporting him in controlling Trump.

Actually, it should probably be one of the letter agencies dealing with subversive activities in the West, but since it is both lucrative and a real career rocket as it rarely fails, everyone is now involved in it, GRU, FSB, SVR, and others.

Putin’s directive to Trump is probably to delay Western aid as long as possible, just as Putin has done throughout the war. Remember in 2022, helmets to Ukraine were guaranteed to lead to nuclear war.

It worked then, and it works now.

And to put pressure on Ukraine – Trump even tried to politically undermine Zelensky for a month, but the country held together.

Europe is not allowed to buy weapons from the USA, Zelensky is not allowed to buy weapons from the USA, US weapons are not allowed to be used, several waves of announced support have already been stopped for various reasons, and no new support has been announced.

Furthermore, Trump has been pushing Ukraine around on things he shouldn’t, for example, resulting in them leaving Kursk to appease Trump.

For heaven’s sake, don’t fall for Trump’s “now we’ll strike back at Putin,” it’s just to make us in Europe fall back asleep.

Overall, Trump is doing even worse things for Ukraine than Biden managed, and now it’s summer 2025, and Trump owns everything.

If we see this, Ukraine sees it too, and they surely want to come out of this alive, right?

The invasion of Russia went well enough that Putin had to seek Trump’s help to negotiate it away, but now that door is probably closed as RU is busy gathering soldiers from other countries for border security.

The fight against the oil industry also went well, but I bet a lot of money that China is protecting targets in Russia with their LV system, bridging what Russia currently lacks.

And Trump has managed to get Ukraine to refrain from the goals that hurt Putin the most for eternal peace, which will never come.

So what can Ukraine do?

They can do a couple of things 😀

Trying to topple Belarus, we know that about 99.9% of the citizens want to get rid of Lukashenko and move closer to the EU, but we in the West did not want that and let Russia torture the freedom-seeking Belarusians to death, turning a blind eye and pretending not to hear the screams from the torture centers.

Ukraine can do this in many ways without directly intervening, for example, the Belarusian soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

They also have contacts with opposition within the army and of course the remaining opposition.

If Belarus falls, it will be a critical situation for Putin.

However, the easiest target would be if Europe joined the war – for Ukraine, it would be entirely beneficial and something they could likely try to motivate Putin to do.

They are certainly conducting a lot of subversive activities against RU to try to persuade them to take that step 😀

I also have a little thought that perhaps the Baltics would like to bring the rest of Europe along instead of slowly dying one step at a time right on the edge so that Europe does not intervene and provide support.

Operation Baltics will not be a major mobilization, the units are in Pskov and Luga (if I remember correctly), and since they are not in the hundreds of thousands, we will only see something the week before.

However, the Baltic Fleet and the nuclear and missile units in Luga will be regrouped.

Since it’s Russia, there will probably be some false flag operation.

And the usual showering with threats of nuclear war.

A suitable time to regroup the above units would be before or during Zapad 25.

The problem we have in Europe is that when countries go the way of Hungary or Slovakia, we are suddenly like fish out of water, we can’t do anything.

Estonia has already taken a tough stance, arresting Russian defectors, banning Russian programs on TV and radio, and something about the Russian language.

In Estonia, they actively try to root out and combat subversive activities because they understand that it is an existential threat.

Estonia is as close to war as you can get without open armed conflict.

If it turns out like in Hungary, Slovakia, and maybe the Czech Republic with a pro-Russian administration, the next step would be to invite Russian peacekeeping troops into the country to protect the Russian minority – game over.

The Baltic states are already fighting for their survival today, and there is no shortage of warnings from them, even if the rest of Europe has rolled over and fallen back asleep.

But perhaps the most important thing is to try to topple Russia, something that Europe and the USA absolutely do not want and have flatly refused for an entire war.

We know roughly the following:

-UA has contacts with 5-6 liberation fronts in Russia that have also assisted them with some sabotage and liberation acts over the years.

-UA has contacts with the six surrounding oblasts and has hoped to have good relations with them post-war, UA’s EU membership being a pull factor.

-there is a whole host of sub-republics and provinces in Russia that would like to be decolonized and feel forgotten in recent years’ discussions about colonization and inherited guilt. For three years now, they have been on the sidelines watching Ukraine survive and wondering when it’s time to throw the white glove in front of Putin.

Several old -stans have found themselves not reinvaded by Russia but at least reinvaded by GRU and FSB subversive activities.

What has already happened seems to be that Turkey, as we have seen, has realized that Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia would be fun to have influence in – mostly Azerbaijan, I guess.

In both Azerbaijan and Armenia, there has been strong opposition against Russia in recent weeks, and we know that Azerbaijan had a fairly modern defense force in the recent war with Armenia.

Georgia has already fallen, but three million angry Georgians would not make that mistake again.

You can rest assured that Ukraine is in on it too 😀

The old man has unfortunately betrayed us and joined the dark side, so you won’t hear more about him.

This is happening completely without Europe’s and the USA’s vigilant red cards, and China is probably keen on good relations with the old -stans so they might pull in the right direction almost by chance.

The big question, of course, is Kazakhstan – they are probably not keen on Russia, they have also been under pressure, and they probably prefer a life in peace and freedom.

If Russia has problems with the first troika, it’s game over if Kazakhstan turns sour.

Then there are four -stans under Kazakhstan, and China needs a couple of them for its overland route, and they probably will go in the direction Kazakhstan goes.

It started as a shake-up on the lower deck 😍

But Ukraine must do this without Europe and the USA, who are constantly hindering this beautiful development.

Russia must fall.

The country is a mosaic of colonized minority peoples that no one ever talks about, they are rich “countries” but are plundered by Russia on everything, and during the war, they have been disadvantaged.

Russia is one of the last great colonial powers, and if this can just get started, it will probably be lively pretty quickly.

It won’t be a nuclear war, but there will be free minority peoples and new countries with natural resources that will make them the future Dubai.

Russia is long past its expiration date.

And then the last thing that still surprises me after three years – the military is staging a revolution.

Yes, the Russian army is a suppressive organization like no other, so it’s hard to move there, but this war is going to hell for them, and the situation is absolutely absurd.

I saw a film I forgot to save that was painful – some 60-year-old Russian who had been mobilized and was dragging his equipment and probably had sore knees because it was going slowly.

Two soldiers filmed him and laughing, they told him that he would die in the afternoon’s attack, he was a consumable.

Completely unbelievable 😐

Or this description

The Russians almost behave worse towards their own than towards Ukraine.

One could think that units of conscripts with weapons by now would have figured out that they are strong in a group and turn the weapons inwards.

Yes, FSB and Rosgvardia have revived the barrier units, and there has been a lot of crazy stuff happening that we don’t hear about (almost but I hear).

Desertions are in the tens of thousands.

Friendly fire/fratricide is common.

Units refusing orders are numerous.

Many Russians are going underground in Russia instead of being mobilized.

But all of this is individual initiatives, what is needed is for them to rally around a common cause, and then it will probably spread like wildfire.

We had the vodka run 2023, which was ambitious, but apparently FSB managed to get ahead and had all the leaders’ families kidnapped, so it died out. There were 25,000 Wagner soldiers, and it didn’t take more than that for Putin and the leadership to flee Moscow in panic.

They are probably in the worst condition and most unmotivated and farthest away at the southern front – a good place to start.

Until 2023, probably about a dozen generals/army chiefs were arrested, so there were definitely things in motion.

Yes, Europe and the USA have made every effort to prevent us from reaching this point, but it would be appreciated if the Russian soldier could choose life at some point, actually.

Ukraine should reasonably go all-in on red, for example, with Crimea to create the black swan needed to get the ball rolling.

I don’t know when this is in time because there are too many factors involved, but Sirsky and Zelensky have both announced that Ukraine will carry out offensive operations in the future, so they always have a plan for the country’s liberation on the table.

They had it in the fall of 2024 as well, by the way, even though Trump ruined the whole party.

Life under Europe and the USA is probably not very fun, manipulation, broken promises, prohibitions, and no one to trust when things get tough.

But Ukraine as a country has probably shown at least five times that they could strike back at Russia, but every time they have been stopped and complied, hoping that this time the promises won’t be a total letdown again.

This border is slightly more attractive than the one we have to deal with today, and this is our chance, which probably won’t come back in 200 years, to secure Europe’s eastern border.

It wasn’t many years ago that the beyond-the-wall nuisance was in Berlin planning to reach the English Channel.

The Cold War was not a fun period, and if we can avoid a repeat and also straighten out our eastern border and finally fully include Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine in our community, it would be appreciated.

Did you know that Budanov just survived another power struggle with some other big shot – it’s probably not easy to navigate in there, and anything can probably happen at any time, but hope can take you far, and the best we in the West can give Ukraine is hope and weapons.

It could have been Dengamle, he is known for betraying and stabbing in the back.

Don’t forget Svensksund, Russian bastards – you will fall this time too ✊✊

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