I think I’m starting to pick up a scent trail here on something bigger than what we normally guess, below is 100% speculative until it’s not anymore sometime in the future and then you can nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Since I exposed a major salamander scam yesterday in Bromma outside Stockholm, my credibility should now be sky-high, I think.
Some of it is economics, and it is generally accepted that I know nothing about it, so no qualified guesses there, just wild guesses. Sometimes I feel like I’m on thin ice, but the comments section on johanno1.se will take it further 😀
I believe the USA has decided to take down Iran already, probably in consultation with Israel, and the decision has been made.
Trump has had some strange psyops operation where he intermittently accuses Iran of trying to kill him with highlights like a shaky camera film from behind a bush when he was playing golf, posted on some Iranian site with threats against him – this one is so obvious that you can’t help but burst out laughing, but it has been done for a purpose.
The USA has started moving strategic aircraft to Diego Garcia now, within reach of Iran and out of reach of Iranian weapons, reportedly 7 larger stealth bombers.
Trump doesn’t give up on Greenland – now Vance and his wife are going there on vacation, and it has gone so far that Mette has commented on the matter.
Canada faced sky-high trade tariffs along with Mexico, and Trump threatens the EU with most things – haven’t followed all the twists there, but in terms of increased risk that can drive interest rates for a company, a threat of 75% tariffs on everything to your largest export market is one such risk, for example.
When Trump announced a state crypto fund, XRP surged significantly, I saw today – Trump CAN influence markets just through a statement.
Yesterday I rhetorically asked if Putin wants to provide the black swan for a stock market crash in the EU.
Also note that 4 American soldiers have been found dead in the Baltics – we’ll see if Trump uses that as a reason to withdraw all US forces from the Baltics this spring…
There is a lot of mocking laughter at Trump and his various decisions that will crash the USA. First of all, I don’t see his popularity ratings crashing in the USA, and secondly, some decisions have been good for the USA (but not good for us in Europe).
We’ll see in March, but inflation seems to be declining in the USA?
Trump has de facto seemed to go after illegal immigration and the major refugee crisis in 2016 was a high-cost event if you remember. Then he shows determination to his voters by deporting illegally immigrated individuals.
Starting to pull back militarily is also a cost-saving measure and not coming across as a hawk is probably positively received by many.
Foreign investment seems to be increasing, and do you know why – because everything is relative, right?
If Trump can make the EU an uncertain market, companies will want to invest in the USA, and how does it look right now with a Russian threat of war against the EU and all the tariffs?
Trump only needs 51% of voters to feel they are better off after Biden, to stay in power, and the first test is in two years. Then he will probably hand over to Vance maybe in the next election if he hasn’t already changed the rules 😀
He has tweaked the voting procedure a bit with ID, paper ballots, and same-day counting, which presumably benefits the GOP, otherwise he wouldn’t have pushed for it, right?
Another simple way is to try to increase security and then leave more money in the citizens’ wallets. They seem to be targeting the gangs if you believe the information about all the deportations?
I find the taxes too difficult to decipher, and D or R say completely different things 😀
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/03/who-benefits-from-trump-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-extension.html
Above are just the measures to keep Trump in power, but then there is a very important point mentioned above – EVERYTHING IS ALWAYS RELATIVE.
If the EU is perceived as better, companies and money will flow there from the USA, and vice versa, so presumably the USA currently sees the EU as a greater threat to their economy?
China is not a threat, and neither is Russia, as the two areas to hide in during troubled times are either the USA or the EU. It is also no secret that the USA sees a too strong EU as a threat.
So here is what I am starting to suspect, and some pieces are probably already confirmed –
Trump has a deal with Putin that he will get a boost. The first part was to stop the influence operation with refugees from Mexico, and there it has probably decreased by 90% or something now based on the number of arrests when they significantly increased presence – and it has decreased by 90%.
Previously it was the opposite – using the refugee card to help Trump win the election. That Russia helped Trump win the election is well known, and RU gave Trump a boost back in 2016.
The next move that Putin can offer is attractive deals for the USA – there is something with the Arctic Circle in the works, and Trump has previously hinted at commodity deals with Russia, which the EU has completely cut off in solidarity with Ukraine.
If the USA gets everything and at a good price, it’s a win for the USA, period, and Trump can take credit for this. Russia then gets better payment than from China.
Then conversely, with the tide turning – US products sold in Russia now when the European market has completely given up the fight provides a market for American products in a market that is currently empty.
The citizens of the USA probably couldn’t care less about Ukraine and us in the EU if they start to do better economically. It would probably make Putin popular again if one were to guess, with lots of new McDonald’s, American cars, and iPhones instead of Chinese plastic toys at inflated prices.
The peace plan has a hidden agenda – Trump uses it as a justification to start lifting sanctions one by one for Russia. What the EU decides is secondary because the USA can then start trading with RU again.
It would be nice if there were peace, but that requires Ukraine to yield, and if they don’t, it will probably continue – Trump will just adjust his statements.
Trump also can’t stop Europe from giving more, but the quick-witted will soon realize that there will be high costs for Europe with the commitments we are entering into now. Politicians and lobby groups never miss a good crisis, so now it will be completely exaggerated, which will make our economies vulnerable.
The only thing Trump currently cannot control is if Ukraine starts to thrive and things go too well – he has tried, but Ukraine has not yielded. It is possible that we will see more from Trump in the future in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from doing things that are beneficial for UA in the war.
The EU is still too anxious, and we allow ourselves to be influenced to some extent, even though we are starting to toughen up a bit. But no one in the EU can control if the risk escalates due to Russia, causing capital flows to go to the USA instead – no one.
So what is the benefit for the USA, everyone wonders, why abandon Europe in favor of the glammed-up gas station Russia?
Then one is misreading everything as usual.
Since WW2, the USA has always tried to keep Europe down – that is probably the dark secret in their geopolitical strategy that they never openly talk about – if you ask me.
Just like the leaders in the West keep silent about being terrified of Russia’s subversive activities and prefer to look the other way.
The USA abandoned the UK in 1943 in favor of the Soviet Union. The Cold War allowed the USA to let it happen despite all of Churchill’s efforts to at least save Poland – and it became the best years for the USA.
I truly understand why Europe had to pay for US protection in gold – it gave the USA the American Dream.
Right now, Europe is doing the opposite of what we should according to the USA – instead of backing down, we are standing up, and for the USA to succeed in leading us into a new Cold War, Ukraine must not be allowed to win with Europe’s help, right? Then everything de-escalates, and we have peace for over 80 years.
I have a suspicion that the USA is not at all opposed to a new Cold War because then they can sell weapons to us, raw materials, LNG, and oil – and then the protection will return, which will fleece us to the bone. Just like the UK had to give away its empire for US support in WW2. The Soviet Union did not repay everything, by the way.
Considering the above – what needs to happen here for it to start benefiting the USA?
Europe needs to experience insecurity and instability to the extent that the safe haven becomes the USA again – period. Then the USA will come out on top in this, and Trump/GOP will retain power.
Things are not going very well for Europe, and if a larger default carousel can be set in motion, it could quickly become lively. One way is to raise interest rates, and increased risk usually drives interest rates up, right?
I’m getting a bit off-topic here, but in 2008, the PIIGS crashed because China had learned to copy their industry and produce at the same quality but cheaper.
We are losing market share in our high-tech industry in Sweden every few years as China takes over more, and rising electricity prices have exacerbated this. The German automotive miracle is no longer a wonder child – it’s doing poorly.
It is very possible that China has now managed to copy our high technology, and if prices soar due to fuel and electricity costs, we might face another 2008, but for countries with high-tech exports?
Now that Russia has exhausted itself in the MENA region and has been expelled from Syria, the only way to escalate in the area would be Israel and the USA against Iran – it seems likely to happen and is an escalation that could reasonably impact oil prices. The first thing Iran will do is sink a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and if they have the audacity to refuse, the USA will likely accidentally combat a tanker in the same place, which will unexpectedly sink – “looked like an Iranian corvette.”
Imagine combining that with the USA ceasing to sell oil and LNG to Europe because the USA needs it all for themselves – or imposing exorbitant taxes/tariffs as revenge for something fabricated?
(Ok, maybe solar panels and wind power aren’t such a bad idea after all 😀)
https://think.ing.com/articles/the-eus-gdp-exposure-to-trumps-trade-policy-europe-growth
The next step is to try to push towards a stock market crash/bank run/soaring interest rates/inflation, and one step in that direction would be if the USA slaps on a bunch of tariffs/taxes on everything, right?
And trying to create a black swan event for Europe, which a “NATO test” against the Baltics would certainly be, right?
Pair that with a massive amount of sabotage and nuclear threats, and it could work wonders for the stock markets – the USA, with Russia’s help, creates an artificial risk that makes Europe unattractive for capital and investments – Voila, everything comes back to the USA.
That’s why Trump is not worried because EVERYTHING IS ALWAYS RELATIVE.
Do the USA and Russia seriously believe this would work?
Remember 2008?
2014 – The UA war began
2015 – the major refugee crisis
2016 – Brexit.
And now, in the near future, three years of full-scale war in Ukraine where Europe has not managed to get things in order.
Hindsight suggests that this will work out just fine, and that is probably how analysts work with their probability analysis, where hindsight is part of the analysis.
Then we have a couple more pieces to add to the puzzle besides war in Europe and soaring oil prices (for us in Europe).
-The refugee weapon 2025.
-Halt in international shipping to Europe through the Houthis and maybe also RU?
-Conflicts in EU countries – groups pitted against each other, and the whole aspect where Russia excels as an Olympic champion.
-Political crises – noticed that there aren’t many elections in 2025, so we’re in a good position there, but opposition calling for resignations maybe? Representatives of the Left Party have actually been doing that for a few months now, daily. Apparently, our government are fascists and must resign immediately.
-Soaring crime rates where Russia activates criminal clans and gang criminals to the level of wartime.
-Direct large-scale sabotage and murders.
Russia doesn’t need to start a major war in Europe beyond “testing NATO” to bring down Europe and give us a new Cold War. The USA will take care of the rest.
The observant already knows that Trump wants to impose soaring tariffs on us and will not help us at all when RU attacks – he has said that several times.
What everyone thinks is a Trump power grab for a few oligarchs is actually the USA’s geopolitical game to continue keeping Europe down as they have done since 1943.
I dare not speculate on China here – I want to believe that the resistance against the USA is genuine and that what we see from China is what it is. But if China is also on board, then Europe has a pretty big problem to deal with in the future.
I can see several factors at play that will not be good for China, though – trade and a stronger Russia, to name a few.
So I’ll leave it at that with China 😀
Do you know what the best part is – we just need to wait until at least September 2025 to see if this theory holds up or not. Some puzzle pieces suddenly fell into place for me, and someone often says that the USA is just like the bank, not your friend.
By the way, RU seems to believe that the USA will be able to open Nordstream for them and force the EU to buy LNG. The quick-witted remember that Trump has hinted at the idea of buying Nordstream. RU – USA have extremely advanced discussions where we are only informed of a fraction, that’s my guess.
Philip seems to be reading the thread at least.
My conclusion is that Europe has let this war go on for too long – probably Ukraine cannot prevent this development on its own, but we’ll see. Europe has allowed the USA to drag this out for its own highly personal purposes.
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Good morning!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-03-27
Glory to Ukraine!
The duck population has increased again 👍🏻.
Goes up sharply again
Update from 08:00 on 27.03.2025 regarding the Russian invasion
A total of 224↗️combat actions were recorded during the past day.
#Kharkiv 2
#Kupyansk 4
#Lyman 14💥
#Siverskyi 11💥↗️
#Kramatorsk 4
#Toretsk 20💥
#Pokrovsk 88↗️💥💥💥💥
#Novopavlivka 25💥💥
#Huliaypillia 1
#Huliaipil 16↗️💥
#Orikhivsk 9💥
#Prydniprovsky 2
#Kursk 25💥💥
In the Pokrovsk sector, the AFU🇺🇦 stopped 88 aggressor attacks near the settlements of Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelizavetivka, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and towards the settlements of Preobrazhenka, Pokrovsk, Promin, Vidrodzhennia, Novosergiivka.
In the Huliaipil sector, the AFU🇺🇦 stopped 16 attacks in the areas of Rivne, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilnoye Pole, and Novopil.
The AFU🇺🇦 continues its operations in the Kursk region. Over the past day, the enemy has carried out 19 air raids, dropped 28 guided bombs, and fired 492 shots, nine of which were from rockets with multiple launchers. Ukrainian defenders stopped 25 intruders’ attack operations.
During the past day, the AFU🇺🇦’s air force, robotic forces, and artillery have eliminated 15 areas with personnel concentrations, a radar station, and an artillery piece.
👍
Tnx 205 👍🏻.
Nice daily setups 😀😀
RU has started at the southern front
Today’s yellow wall suggests that what Trump is mainly dealing with is essentially just about the economy (and the opportunity to align Russia against China). I completely agree with that conclusion. He wants to secure advantageous deals that benefit him and the USA regardless of the cost to others. However, I am equally certain that the path he has chosen to favor Russia is the wrong path to take, and that he has chosen it because of his relationship with Putin and the help he has received (and is receiving) from Russia. It will not benefit the USA even if they can buy cheap raw materials and establish American companies in Russia.
Europe is a much more important market for the USA than Russia is. A Europe with a crashed economy will import even less from the USA, and if the crash happens due to US actions, it will probably be even less interesting. I suspect instead that it will benefit China. We prefer not to trade more than necessary with China, but if we have to choose between a USA allied with Russia, that might be where we end up.
China has succeeded in delivering affordable goods and has started to become a leader in research and development in many areas.
What Trump may achieve is that Americans buy more American products, but he will hardly succeed in increasing the trade balance. Of course, this could be somewhat offset by selling to Russia, but it’s not a market where many still have outdoor toilets.
Regarding Trump’s popularity, I would say that it has already plummeted significantly. Although he starts from a higher level this time, the downward trend is steeper compared to the last time he was elected president, but it is of course a bit early to say anything. By summer, we will probably have a better idea of how things look.
MatsExtrude!
Thank you for the graph showing Trump’s popularity numbers. Really interesting to follow in the future. (Although I have heard prominent know-it-alls say that “framdeles” is just fine instead of “framledes.” So one should refrain from playing Messerschmitt here)
After reading Johan’s column above, I thought that maybe we in Europe might have to start aligning ourselves with China. A completely unthinkable thought just a month or two ago.
Then there is such unspeakable tragedy in today’s situation. Europe invited Russia into the European community. An invitation that Putin, with catastrophic consequences, declined. Catastrophic consequences for Europe, but especially for the Russian people.
The utter senselessness of this war is so unspeakably tragic.
From that perspective, Europe has a moral obligation, beyond self-interest, to overthrow Putin and liberate as many Russian colonies as possible. Perhaps that could make it more politically feasible to take some drastic actions?
Yes, it really goes against collaborating with China. A few years ago, there were actually many collaboration projects with them here in Sweden, but then we distanced ourselves again, but depending on how things go in the future in the USA, we may have to choose between two evils, and if it’s just an economic issue, it may end up that China is the better choice. Today, we are more dependent on the USA as they import a lot from Europe, so it’s certainly not easy to cut all ties (and I don’t think it will happen either).
I completely agree with the last thing you wrote. Tragic and senseless is exactly what it is.
Also interesting to look at the demographic distribution
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
How do you get the uneducated young white American men to change their view of him?
I think we have to play down intelligent actions with Trump! He goes wherever the wind blows! He has several letter combinations and brings along a whole bunch of the same this time!
https://bsky.app/profile/jahojariaho.bsky.social/post/3lldqoailes2g
Start to understand that this will be his seventh and final major bankruptcy!
Hey, I think he’s doing a lot right in the USA (immigration, budget deficit, woke and DEI), but he has lost it internationally with the strange approach to Russia that will slowly but surely backfire. Americans are isolated on their continent and don’t understand either Europe or Asia. But they can do business. Europe is weakened by the same reasons as the USA, that is, by our elites’ weakness for feminism, green issues, and the mysterious human rights. Add the technocrat rulers in Europe’s countries. We have no leaders, only administrators and Mark Rutte- and Ursula von der Leyen types. Then migration to Europe has been a disaster. It needs to be said. Europe has work to do, just like the USA. Have a great Thursday!
Lasse W!
It’s easy to understand your point of view on immigration and more. But it seems like the USA (and its surroundings) have gone from the frying pan into the fire. From woke to something that more or less starts to look like fascism.
All these “woke people” are responsible for Trump’s comeback. When you’ve only had contempt for all voters who are concerned about more or less open borders, etc., you’ve driven these voters into Trump’s arms.
Both woke and anti-woke are one and the same problem.
It’s the same thing in Sweden, they have scorned all those who have raised their hand and wondered how to solve integration, etc. They have driven them into the arms of the Sweden Democrats.
And the thing is, an American looks out for their own interests first, just like everyone else. I don’t think there’s anyone here who goes to the ballot box wondering who to vote for to positively impact the USA or how it might affect Southern Europe, etc. We vote for our own sake.
Jahojariaho!
You are probably right about the intelligent motives of Trump. But there are probably people in the background whispering in his ear.
Does a voting-eligible American feel that they will be better off if they vote for him?
Taxes are a big issue, and I don’t understand it, but if he actually puts more money in your pocket, then it’s a step in the right direction, right?
Johan, I think you are about right in what the USA is trying to do, but I’m not so sure they are succeeding. The basic principle that everything is relative is also entirely correct – otherwise, everyone wouldn’t have flocked to the dollar in every crisis over the past decade. Here are some “buts”:
China has great power: They can cause inflation in the entire Western world whenever they want. They can probably choose the level of inflation they want in the EU and the USA down to the decimal point. Consider that almost all everyday items are manufactured in China.
Then we have consumer power. We see how things are going for Tesla, and if both Canada, the EU, and possibly Australia/New Zealand consumers – who are not so easy to control from the political top – start boycotting American goods, they will make a big fuss. And the 49% of Americans who hate Trump might continue to support European products. Then we have the pension funds, which hold quite a bit of power. Well, maybe capital flows will be directed to Europe after all. By the way, I have a theory that what makes US business more dynamic than European business is not so much about culture as people think, but more about the availability of capital to make big investments. And suddenly, that capital availability could be redirected to another continent. Northvolt is an example of this, even though it was a lousy company: It’s a big deal to have raised 80 billion in an attempt to establish a new industry, while a single American company, Facebook, spent 500 billion on an experiment (metaverse) that also failed.
I believe the refugee weapon has been largely disarmed and has a worse return on investment than using existing gangs.
What I have heard is a cultural difference that you are allowed to fail in the USA, you almost have to do it before you succeed. In the USA, you can get small grants early on, then when the idea has developed, the venture capital comes in and helps the company grow. Here, instead, we go all in on a few gigantic projects that are supposed to do things no one in Sweden has done before, and then we sit scratching our heads wondering how it could have gone so wrong.
There is probably reliable statistics, but it is said that Sweden has large companies and lots of small ones, but few of the small ones grow and become medium-sized or even large. Part of it may be that it doesn’t pay off to grow in Sweden.
Yes, it is a common comment that failures are seen as valuable experiences in the USA. But is it really that terrible in Sweden? I don’t mean politician-business like Northvolt, but regular companies. Do people laugh at the fact that Hedin Bil is close to bankruptcy? Hardly. And before Reagan, did the USA have a completely different culture then? Or is there a simpler explanation – the availability of investment capital?
Question: What is the USA’s rationale for taking down Iran? How will they explain it to the American people?
It’s all about supporting Israel. Keeping the threats against the country such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and others in check.
But is it larger than Afghanistan and Iraq? Does Trump want to start a new Vietnam to support Israel? Or do they not realize that there is a sustainable resistance movement ready to take over Iran? There is another theory in line with Johan’s text above. Namely, that the USA just wants to make a quick strike against Iran and then sit back and enjoy decades of chaos spreading into Europe.
It is exactly what they are planning – to bomb for a while and then declare that the war is over.
Regarding the leak in the signal, the theory has been put forward that it would have occurred intentionally with the argument that it is to unofficially criticize Europe harshly without necessarily reflecting the US stance outwardly. The purpose of this can be pondered upon, but regardless, the chance is minimal.
Sure, this is probably hearsay, and if they are smart, it could of course be a way to make us believe that it was unintentional.
“Sources: Trump got angry about the saved number
But the anger was not about the possible leaking of classified material since the operation was still a success according to Trump.
Instead, Trump was furious – and also suspicious – that Mike Waltz had saved The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg’s phone number from the beginning, say sources to Politico.”
https://omni.se/kallor-trump-blev-arg-pa-sparat-nummer-sa-korkad/a/1MGVMQ
But why does Rubio feel the need to swear his innocence?
“US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizes his own limited role in the shadow of war, writes AP.
– Of course, someone made a big mistake by adding a journalist. I have nothing against journalists, but they should not be involved in this type of thing, says Rubio at a press conference during a visit to Jamaica.”
https://omni.se/marco-rubio-tvar-sina-hander-stort-misstag/a/mPw8jq
If they are so smart that it was planned, one must assume that they also anticipated the criticism it would lead to.
Or wait, maybe it was a cunning way to get rid of Waltz? Personally, I think it would have been easier to just replace him because this affects several people.
“Internal criticism grows: ‘They need a scapegoat’
Now critical sources tell the channel that the storm around the leak is a problem for the White House and that it is no longer a legal one, but a political one.
– They need to appoint a scapegoat to clean this up. The most obvious one is Mike Waltz, says a Trump source.”
https://omni.se/interna-kritiken-vaxer-de-behover-en-syndabock/a/nyKmVJ
If one had wanted to convey an unofficial message to Europe, it is not very smart to do it at the same time as leaking secret information, right?
“Earlier on Wednesday, a US defense source with insight into the operation and other sources told CNN that the information shared by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was top secret at the time he wrote it.”
https://omni.se/trump-om-chattlackan-alltihop-ar-en-haxjakt/a/25kqGB
It is extremely unlikely that it was a deliberate leak, and if it were, it was equally foolishly executed.
One can, of course, downplay the whole incident, and it was surely due to sheer incompetence in this case.
BUT it points to something much more alarming, and that is that those who govern the USA do not take security seriously and act downright incompetently. It is serious and not something that can be dismissed.
The debate about the incident will continue.
I guess Trump will come up with something sensational to shift the focus, hopefully not something like attacking Greenland…
It is a stunningly bad theory that they did it intentionally. If they wanted to give a slap to Europe, they could have sent JD Vance to the security conference in Munich, for example…
Another theory: Signal has long been used in the White House to avoid traceability, and the Biden administration also used it extensively. It’s not so difficult for Ukrainian attack plans to leak to Russia to hack a mobile phone, even though Signal itself has good encryption.
As the analyst usually points out, this is just dust that someone has stirred up, but it doesn’t really affect anything, especially not the decisions Europe needs to make. The only thing is that it’s a bit fun to watch this clown show.
It’s the worst boy gang here. Only the cowboy hats are missing. They are doers. Disruptors. The forms are less important than the content.
DJ and MXT!
I completely agree about bad theory.
Is there evidence that the Ukrainian attack plans would have leaked via signal? Have only seen speculations.
This time, there are clear evidence at least, and I am convinced that many who deal with security now take it seriously if they didn’t before (hopefully also those in the USA).
Of course, one can choose to see it as nothing if one wants, but constant dripping wears away the stone, and this will definitely backfire on Trump and the others. Maybe it will be forgotten by the midterm elections, but if the drips keep coming, it will still be a part of the whole. Already now, it might make some Republicans think a few times about whom they have been involved with in governing the USA.
The fact that Trump makes several statements on the issue and calls it a witch hunt shows that he at least sees it as a problem, even if the Analyst likes to dismiss everything that Trump and his friends say or do.
But of course, in Sweden, you get in trouble if you buy a Toblerone with the wrong credit card or lose secret documents, but the USA is a bit… different.
It’s not that it’s a gigantic failure and a difficult problem for the Trump administration. It is, of course. The thing, which I believe the Analyst also means, is that it becomes a distraction for us when we have more important things to sort out that are independent of the cowboys’ ravages. All we need to know is that the USA is like the bank, not our friend, and we have been told that for quite some time already. Something simplified.
BUT it points to something much more worrying, and that is that those who govern the USA do not take security seriously and act purely incompetently.
Agree.
Security of this kind is a mindset that takes several years to develop.
There is a vast difference in how classified information is handled in civilian and military operations.
And if you come in as a pure civilian and receive a two-hour lecture with powerpoints on ‘crash course in handling classified information’, and everyone around you takes the same course – then I would say that the likelihood is that it will turn out just like this; like a chat on Signal.
Instead, we should be glad it didn’t turn into a chat on Telegram.
One can understand if they perhaps do not realize the risks with Signal for regular communication, but that which has leaked should be understood by anyone that one should not spread, but it does show that you are right in what you write. It takes more than a few hours of training. However, one must still wonder how they obtained the information in the first place. Feels like there may have been a breach in an earlier stage as well.
Now that they realize that there can be mistakes with Signal, there is a risk that they will switch to Telegram…
I believe that the USA will be very disappointed in the generation of actual cash in the exercise of swapping Europe for Russia as a trading partner.
There is no money whatsoever left in Russia. The war has consumed everything. The civilian market has passed the point of no return on its way down.
If it’s rare earth metals that the USA wants in exchange, they are still in the ground. That won’t generate cash for the USA on day 1. Nor on month 1. Most likely not even year 1.
It will be Americans who will have to extract such things; it’s not the Russians’ thing to be a reliable and constructive mining partner. And no American on the ground in Russia will think, “this is a picturesque corner of the world I’ve ended up in!” but rather “get me out of the 1800s!!!”
A fairly large risk premium is needed to get involved in such a business.
Many questions in today’s wall to relate to. I think it’s a bit too much guesswork overall. But stimulating for the brain exercise anyway…
Started thinking a bit about the strange chat leak. What if it was a fully conscious act… ?
Alright, now I see that I’m late to this
Trump has clearly understood the importance of owning media for his propaganda, and after getting Twitter on board via Musk, he has long been craving TikTok as well. So much so that he is willing to lower the tariffs. Or were the tariffs from the beginning just a way to leverage to get his way in other “important” issues that will improve the lives of Americans?
“Donald Trump claims to be willing to lower tariffs on China to reach an agreement where TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, sells its US operations to an American company. Several news outlets report this.
‘Maybe I’ll give them a little tariff reduction or something to get it done,’ he says according to Bloomberg.”
https://omni.se/villig-sanka-tullar-mot-kina-for-att-ro-tiktok-affaren-i-mal/a/MnkE45
Unfortunately for Trump, China has also understood the benefits and does not intend to agree to it.
“China has declined Donald Trump’s proposal to lower tariffs on the country if Tiktok’s owner, Bytedance, sells its US operations to the US.
‘Regarding the issue of Tiktok, China has repeatedly clarified our position.'”
https://omni.se/kinas-svar-till-trumps-tiktok-erbjudande-nej-tack/a/XjL4wo
One becomes a little concerned when one sees that Trump has pointed out potential buyers.
Are these companies in any way ideologically or financially linked to Trump?
“Donald Trump is open to letting Tesla CEO Elon Musk or Oracle’s chairman Larry Ellison buy Tiktok.”
https://omni.se/trump-oppnar-for-musk-att-kopa-tiktok/a/Oo0aLk
Brief about Ellison:
“In the first 48 hours of Trump’s second term, the 80-year-old Silicon Valley veteran has become central to two pressing issues: the fate of TikTok and the growing infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence.”
“Ellison’s relationship with the Trump administration dates back to the first term, when he played a pivotal role in negotiations over stripping TikTok from its Chinese ownership.”
“Unlike most tech leaders who distanced themselves from Trump in 2016, Ellison offered his early support. Today, he ranks among the world’s wealthiest individuals, with a fortune of $230 billion, trailing only Musk and Bezos but ahead of Zuckerberg.”
“In recent years, he has formed close ties with Musk, investing $1 billion in Twitter’s acquisition and serving on Tesla’s board as a major shareholder.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250123-larry-ellison-tech-s-original-maverick-makes-trump-era-return
Guessing that part of those billions end up in Larry’s pocket:
“Trump, Larry Ellison unveil AI project that’ll get start in Texas”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A6ugvydgXQ
There were some company names that were unknown to me, but it’s possible that one of these was an Ellison company, he probably has a few. A reasonable procedure would be for TikTok to sell the shares on the stock exchange in small portions so that no one is unduly favored.
Thank you Johanno1 for yet another thought-provoking post. I also believe that Trump and his associates, in some way, are trying to redirect capital flows through their policies, but I am quite convinced that they are choosing the wrong strategy.
Trump’s tariffs will not make foreign companies pay to sell to the USA as he seems to believe. Instead, it will be US consumers who pay (whether they are end consumers or if it concerns input goods for the industry). As I recall from my too superficial studies in economics, a price increase, let’s say on French wine due to tariffs, will lead to greater demand for cheaper wines, let’s say from the new world (USA).
But if we assume that the US wine market has been in balance and that the demand for wine is unchanged, there will be an imbalance – American wine will become relatively scarce. When this happens, prices of domestic wine go up, theoretically to a level just below the price of the same quality from the old world. Then balance is restored, but now prices are slightly higher than before.
Of course, American wine producers can reduce their exports instead and sell more on the domestic market. But then the trade balance has not really been affected by the tariffs. Wine production remains the same, but exports have decreased.
The industry is of course hit even harder because the processing chains today are global, and individual components can be exchanged for components from another country. For example, SAAB has explained that while there are American components in the 39’s sensors, these can be relatively easily replaced with non-American ones (it’s only the licensed engine that complicates things).
Then I read an interesting article by the eel fisherman PM Nilsson a week ago, who put forward the hypothesis that the Trump administration is trying to lower the value of the dollar to facilitate American exports. I don’t remember the economist’s name (it’s in the article), but what stuck in my tired mind was the recognition. In the 70s, Sweden devalued its currency a few times, and one of the goals was to increase exports. The idea that it would benefit the export economy was therefore in vogue then, and the USA also tried this in the mid-80s. However, the experience of this, especially in a global trade economy, is very mixed, and the USA abandoned that path.
More domestic American production will instead require American participation in global processing chains, and then tariffs are not the way forward. And a weaker dollar and volatile fiscal policy do not attract investors looking for long-term secure investments.
But we’ll see, for my part, I have downloaded Signal and am just waiting for Walz or why not Hegseth to add me by mistake. As soon as I have the answer, I will post it here 😀.
One more thing. If the wine producers in the USA have fewer foreign competitors, that alone could cause prices to rise.
Think of a Weber grill, the parts are produced in, among other places, China and Europe. These parts will become more expensive due to the tariffs, so the Weber grill will therefore become more expensive for the American consumer. Then Weber wants to sell its grills to Europe, where we have imposed tariffs in response. Here, the grills now become even more expensive, and perhaps the European (and Canadian) brands will see an upswing while Weber loses market share.
Result to keep the owners happy = Prices in the USA go up even more.
Europe endured two world wars practically back-to-back. A war-weary population left industry and economy in tatters. As I see it, they made, as Trump would have said, a deal. A deal that was then fully natural and beneficial for all parties. Europe supported the USA in becoming number 1 in the world against Pax Americana. The USA had no enemies in its vicinity, with all industry and resources relatively protected, and Europe became dependent on the war industry in the USA. Their economy and power grew.
As time went on, I believe the USA started to feel self-sufficient, and that Europe, to a far too large extent, shifted costs and responsibilities onto them. In their eyes, a Europe with self-harming behavior has no good prognosis, but rather a future problem with poor economy, productivity, energy, and even food shortages. Add to that significant issues with migration.
The good deal has now exceeded its expiration date and is no longer beneficial for anyone; it must be replaced with a new one. The USA has signaled this for many years, but European politicians have not listened, instead spending their time trying to be nice people, fighting like Don Quixote against windmills (or more windmills). Administrations have grown enormously in all countries, and in order for officials to remain relevant and occupy their time, they invent solutions to problems that either do not exist or are marginal. Rules upon rules. Politicians have bought into this, as they also become more relevant and see the opportunity to collect more taxes from the people. Taxes that they then use to hire more officials and create new rules and mandates.
The USA is not our major problem; currently, it is Russia, and Europe must become more mature and pragmatic. If one is to try to find something positive in the misery caused by war, it is perhaps the opportunity for Europe to awaken, which is our only real salvation.
See there 👍
I completely agree with you 💯
Sigh.
“Russia will not leave occupied territories of Ukraine, but they will not be recognized as Russian – Kellogg #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lldwreuux22o
“In the course of 26 years, Putin has broken 190 deals – military analyst Michael Clarke. ‘The biggest one of all, I suppose, was 1994, the Budapest Memorandum, which is when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons…, and Ukraine was the one country that could have used them,’ he said.”
Has Kellogg regained favor? Has he been pardoned again? That would be good for Ukraine in that case. It shouldn’t be as easy as invading a neighboring country and annexing it in 2025. We don’t live in the Middle Ages.
Kellogg has a good relationship with UA, significantly better than Witkoff.
“🧑🧒🧒🇺🇦 3 more Ukrainian children were rescued from the temporarily occupied territory. 🙏 The child of a soldier who stopped speaking due to the horrors of occupation, a toddler whose mother was threatened with having her child taken away, and a teenager who was finally reunited with his family.”
They are of course just waiting for the USA and Russia to agree so they can buy Tesla and other American cars!
“Sales of new passenger cars in Russia February: -25% y/y
For 2 months: -9%
Sales of trucks: February: -46%
For 2 months: -37%
Sales of buses February: -69%
For 2 months: -61%”
https://bsky.app/profile/evgen-istrebin.bsky.social/post/3llaz4ihpvc2u
One might of course think that one should not care about what Trump says, but I would argue that it is important. The alternative is to stand there helpless the day he suddenly decides to go from words to actions. Even if he has not intended to act and is just using it as scare tactics to later make a good deal, or to test the waters to see how it is received, it must be addressed (otherwise there is a risk that he will think it is open season and therefore act).
“Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen calls Donald Trump’s recent statements about Greenland ‘very violent,’ reports Danish Radio. Trump said on Wednesday that the USA ‘must have Greenland.'”
https://omni.se/danske-forsvarsministern-usa-gar-alldeles-for-langt/a/bmbQkg
Mette Fredriksen has already stated that Trump is completely serious about wanting Greenland. My argument for not spending so much time listening to Trump is that we already know what he wants. We need bandwidth to figure out what we should do.
Met some Danes yesterday and for understandable reasons, the Greenland issue is high on their agenda. According to my Danish friends, Greenland is a problem and has long been a problem. The indigenous population has struggled to transition from fishing and clubbing seals to becoming a modern welfare society. The use of alcohol increased dramatically when it became allowed, leading to violence and sexual abuse in close relationships being a major problem. For example, 30% of girls under 12 have been subjected to sexual abuse. The Greenlandic economy cannot stand on its own feet, and Denmark has to contribute significantly to make the economy work. Greenlanders dream of becoming a thriving society with significant income from tourism and natural resources. It might happen, but the road there is long and costly, and we should not get caught up in any romantic glow that independence solves any problems. The risk with an independent Greenland is that they will fall into the Chinese debt trap to fulfill all their dreams once they become independent. My Danish friends’ stance was that Greenland was Danish, the next alternative being it becoming American, but that it absolutely should not become independent for many decades.
Interesting to hear the opinions of some Danes. I have understood that Greenland has quite a few problems and that independence might be difficult in the near future. The best solution would probably be if they could sell exploitation rights to the highest bidder in the future, perhaps combined with requirements that Greenlanders should have priority for most of the jobs created. If they get their economy in order, it will probably solve many of their other problems.
Regardless, they do not deserve to be invaded by the USA, even though it would of course be a shame if they ended up in the clutches of China.
Interesting Wesley
Recognize the issues referred to here from the 1990s when I lived in DK and knew a physiotherapist who worked for half a year in Greenland and came home able to tell many horrible stories… But what many Danes are not aware of is the great responsibility of the Danish colonial power for this development. The Greenlanders themselves wanted to develop society, but Denmark hindered the development. There is an article about this from 2012 at videnskab.dk
Interesting reading.
Yes, apparently Danish colonialism is a bit more refined than, for example, American.
Let the Greenlanders decide for themselves, they are adults who make adult decisions and thus face adult consequences.
First, I have to say that today’s “yellow wall” was a good brain exercise.
Here comes some more of that.
If we are going to talk about future challenges, a decreased population is one of the absolute biggest challenges.
Has anything driven the economy as much as a growing population and with it, a growing housing market?
As recently as yesterday in the news, Ebba Busch said that the loans we are now taking to upgrade the defense will be paid through economic growth.
Globally, demographics are a huge problem.
Russia and China are fully aware of this challenge.
But I believe that Japan in particular is aware of this concern.
How will the price of housing be affected by the fact that more or less every future young adult will inherit both their grandparents’ homes?
Plus all the things they leave behind.
The demographic challenges not only concern a future crashed housing market but also agriculture.
But there, it is such that no one wants, so to speak, to do the job anymore.
We are quickly approaching a situation where the average age of a full-time farmer is over 60.
At the same time, far too few are 40 years or younger.
Much indicates that globally we will see rising food prices and a crashed, or at best deflated, housing market.
Anyway, Ebba Busch confidently stated that the loans for our future investments in defense will be paid with economic growth.
I’m not so sure that politicians can count on this for much longer.
Europe has already tried to tackle this challenge through increased immigration.
We now know that it didn’t go very well.
For a country to enter a phase where the population steadily decreases while having high debts is not good in any way.
I believe that the challenges of high national debt and decreased population play a major role in what is happening in our world right now.
Most developed countries are struggling with low TFR rates and would experience a declining population without immigration, including the USA, which is currently at 1.6 (it takes 2.1 to maintain a stable population). They have been higher in the past, so it might take a while before the population stabilizes and decreases.
In Sweden, we already provide a lot of support to families (~80 billion per year in child benefits and parental leave) and I doubt that we can reverse the declining birth rates, which probably applies to most countries. This leaves either immigration or accepting a shrinking population and economy in the long run.
I believe we need to stop aiming for constant growth and instead strive for balance. Immigration probably cannot be completely halted unless the burden of supporting a growing elderly population becomes too great. The retirement age will likely need to be raised in the future as well.
(This also applies to the USA, and Trump probably knows this, which is why his efforts to curb immigration and deport people are mostly symbolic. Not much happened last time, and it probably won’t happen much this time either. The USA heavily relies on cheap labor, with the cheapest being illegal immigrants without rights.)
I agree, we must stop aiming for constant growth.
But I suspect that the USA is in a special situation if the global population shrinks.
Or more precisely, with the accompanying decreased economic growth.
This has to do with the fact that the dollar, in practice, is a global currency.
Quite a few goods are globally traded in dollars, and some countries’ gold reserves are also in Fort Knox.
This means that when the Federal Reserve, for example, engages in quantitative easing, printing more money, the dollar is not affected in the same way as other countries’ currencies.
So, the USA has been living very well since WW2 because of the ability to export its inflation to the rest of the world.
But now, as we are soon to start feeling the effects of a declining population in the developed countries, the dollar will probably be hit extra hard.
By that, I mean, in practice, a shrinking tax base, so governments around the world can no longer promise a lot of things on borrowed money.
Whether we like it or not, most developed countries are probably on their way into a deflationary spiral tax-wise.
Previously, if you could borrow a lot of money for the city budget while being able to export inflation.
Then I can guarantee you that they will end up with the short end of the stick more than anyone else historically.
That’s when it’s game over for the USA as we have become accustomed to them being.
All international organizations and global trade rules that they have implemented since WW2 will then be questioned by the rest of the world.
This is probably what the politicians in the USA are terrified of.
From that perspective, it’s not so strange if the USA wants to take stricter control over world trade.
But now in a more physical way by trying to control the important trade routes.
How much does Egypt earn annually from the Suez Canal?
I guess it’s a pretty significant contribution to the country’s treasury.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the USA soon starts demanding control over the Suez Canal as well.
Sweden is relatively well positioned, though. Banks experiencing credit losses and real estate companies facing write-downs are not the end of the world. Once there is an abundance of housing, I believe the birth rate will increase. Right now, it is expensive and cramped to have children for many. And Sweden’s national debt is also quite low.
Economic growth comes in various forms. Increased energy consumption, technological innovation, smarter business models (including globalization). Ultimately, it is important to have growth in lasting values, meaning that society’s resources are greater for each generation. This includes infrastructure, the skills profile of the population, production facilities, water supply, etc. If we can solve the energy problem in the long term better than other countries, we will achieve a lot of growth that way.
I don’t really think it makes sense that we should have a much smaller population and at the same time increasing food prices. Especially if the population drops drastically in China, Brazil, etc., the competition for food produced – and produced with a high degree of automation – will decrease. What is the trend regarding production per human farmer? Can that trend be extrapolated?
Regarding immigration, I think you are a bit mistaken. Sure, things went wrong, but with many of the immigrants, it has also been very successful. So, it is the (non-existent) selection process that was bad, not immigration itself.
Now I have experienced two crises that were really bad for the banks.
Partly in 2008 and the beginning of the 1990s.
It didn’t take particularly large fluctuations in the economy for the banks to need substantial injections of capital.
The economic fluctuations weren’t particularly dramatic really.
But it was enough for the financial market to be able to shake to its core.
Then it’s like the more loans that permeate the economy, the more interest needs to come in.
It’s like money that doesn’t add any value for those who have to work to earn that money.
In the end, young people in China are now doing things like “bai lan”: let it rot or “we are the last generation” are going viral.
Such expressions probably come up here and there when interest rates make it not worthwhile for the average person to either have children or make more effort than necessary.
You don’t have to look very far to see such expressions popping up here and there.
In the USA, we have MGTOW, which Musk and Zuckerberg have surely discussed with Trump.
However, the USA is well off thanks to the dollar.
But what do you think will happen the day the dollar is no longer a world currency?
When it comes to agriculture, globally, there is a growing phenomenon called food deserts.
These are mainly areas with intensive agriculture where it is difficult to find good and affordable food at the same time.
Due to, among other things, pesticides, it is not even possible to grow food for self-sufficiency for the families working there.
So we have farm workers whose children grow up partly malnourished and partly with high levels of pesticides.
Do you think those working on these vast agricultural lands or plantations proudly pat their children on the head and say with pride “one day you will take over…”?
No, hardly, rather they say “move while you can”.
I don’t think the policies that Trump is currently implementing are his own, there are plenty of advisors behind the scenes who want to carry out their agendas.
Meanwhile, mainly younger, average men globally, are starting to stop making an effort or caring more than necessary.
As I mentioned earlier, those who control social media have full insight into the trends.
As I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t take particularly large economic fluctuations for the financial markets to struggle.
Sure, but take West Germany as an example. Hyperinflation, total war, lost half the country to the Soviet Union, and murdered six million of its own population. A few decades later – one of the world’s most prominent and prosperous industrial nations. Once the right conditions are in place, childbirth and the economy can be restored quite easily.
It’s correct.
The question is what we need to do to achieve this restoration this time.
It’s not easy, because the one who is in debt…
This is probably what politicians in the USA are most worried about.
If they lose the dollar as the world’s currency, there is probably no other country that has fallen as deeply into the luxury trap as the USA has.
Speaking of Germany.
If you compared England and West Germany in the 70s and 80s, it was hard to see which country had lost the war.
“This meat mountain of people born in the 1940s that we, born in the 1960s, are supposed to feed – it is a reality that the dependency ratio risks becoming a problem. I become very afraid of the generational divides the day Göran Persson becomes chairman of PRO, and I’m not entirely sure that those born in the 1980s and 1990s will find it easy to assert their interests.
A statement by Pär Nuder in 2004 that he had to eat up.
What happened then? Göran abandoned his ideals and became a multimillionaire. The dependency ratio was attempted to be saved through immigration, unfortunately not enough of them entered the workforce, which meant that the dependency ratio was not significantly affected.
Our 1980s and 1990s babies are hanging out in front of blogs and TikTok instead of even finding a partner, and if by some chance they do, they continue to hang out online instead of cherishing their partner and family.
A working life in the competitive sector has taught me that it doesn’t always require more bakers to bake a larger cake. Life there has been a constant struggle to be able to pay out wage increases and meet customers’ demands for lower prices.
In many publicly funded activities, an extra baker has been hired because politicians have come up with some new regulation to appeal to some group of voters. The cost of the extra baker we have had to pay through our tax returns.
Perhaps we need to shake up the sacred cow and look at how, with a decreasing population, we can continue to develop.
We may need to work longer; it is not reasonable to be able to live well as a retiree for 25 years. Even the immense sector must become more efficient. If we solve it by being more efficient, we will also burden the planet less, giving the cherished salamanders some space to live in.”
I can only agree with what you’re saying.
Then we have the next black swan.
Many people with normal intelligence have pursued more academic education.
It was Göra Persson who started that trend here, but it is by no means solely a Swedish phenomenon.
Many of the so-called academic jobs that these people with normal intelligence are now doing will be taken over by AI.
So, if you are now sitting on over-leveraged properties and student debts in areas with high status, and you have to look forward to applying for jobs in more McDonald’s-like positions.
Because the current job as a coder or some vague administrative position in the municipality or county council is soon at risk of disappearing.
Then it’s hardly likely that you’re considering having children in the future.
Here comes part two of my “blue wall”.
I mentioned the demographic challenges, which our politicians seem to be combating with increased desperation.
Immigration seems to be one such desperate measure.
Here are some theories about what the USA historically has made money from.
If we look at the patent system, it seems to have been rigged in favor of the USA.
If you doubt it, you can always see how Håkan Lans was treated by the US legal system and the patent disputes surrounding his patents for color graphics cards and computer mice.
Another example is Disney and how intellectual property rights have benefited the company.
Genetically modified crops are another example that is rigged in favor of the USA.
You can surely find more examples.
Then we have GATT/WTO, which historically has been one of the tools that has benefited US global trade.
It is no coincidence that this organization was formed at the initiative of the USA in 1947.
In practice, it has been the USA and Western Europe that have controlled global trade through this organization.
But now the rest of the world has started to make demands.
Again, look into the historical trade in agricultural products and you will see the traces.
Then we have something called fractional reserve banking.
I’ll give you a Wikipedia link below.
Read it, and then I want you to put it in relation to a shrinking population in practice in all developed countries.
It is such that as the population shrinks, the need to borrow money decreases and people do not need to pursue income to the same extent as they have historically.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking
My response disappeared like a paycheck on Friday 😳.
But here comes the short version.
First and foremost, like all thinking people, I have now downloaded Signal and added all the guys to my friends list. So now I’m just waiting to be added to the next chat, and I must admit that I am excited – Canada, Greenland, Iran, there is so much to listen to – the best guy gang 😀!
Then I think you are on the right track johanno1, Trump wants to make America great again and it will happen by moving/increasing production of American products in America.
But the methods…tariffs usually lead to higher prices and less exports, and the trade balance plus/minus doesn’t change much. In the global economy with global value chains, it can lead to even worse consequences. Mercantilism has been tried and rejected.
It could also be that Trump likes an economic theory that was popular in the 70s, where a weaker currency was desirable (article by the eel fisherman PM Nilsson in DI). That is, Trump doesn’t care much if the dollar weakens. But that theory was also tried by the USA in the 80s and rejected. Free trade and a strong currency seem more attractive, especially to the capital markets.
Finally, Moscow’s economy has probably hit a wall for a long time due to the war. Moscow’s plantation economy cannot replace Europe’s markets, and I don’t think Putin will abandon China and start selling off commodities to the USA. Especially since the USA doesn’t need them, unlike China, which has to import most things, including food (the USA exports a lot of food to China, among other things).
Putin certainly won’t take the risk of tying himself to the mast, it is more likely that the flirtation with Moscow is a deviation rather than becoming the norm. But as long as they can outsmart the best guy gang, they’ll play along.
The short version is quite good 😃
Putin has been in power for so long that he can assess people and think long-term. Of course, he will look at what he can gain in the short term from approaching the USA without causing any long-term damage. Spontaneity is hardly something one associates with Putin. Trump, on the other hand, is so spontaneous that he can sometimes surprise himself.
For some unfathomable reason, the security filter in WordPress chose to classify your long post as spam. I wonder if it’s Johan No.1 who has imposed a limitation for long posts, probably doesn’t want competition with the yellow walls…?
I have approved it now so those who want to see the longer version can find it further up.
I think you are on the right track. Trump seems to have poor control over the economy, aiming to find deals. I don’t think Putin is that easily influenced, as he has other ambitions but of course chooses to play along as long as it benefits him.
Spammer 😂! Well, at least it’s something!
I actually don’t understand why it thought that particular thing would be spam (no justification is shown). 🤷♂️
There have been a couple of posts that also inexplicably ended up as junk comments.
The only setting that is in place is a maximum of 10 links in a post, beyond that, one has no idea how it works.
It uses blacklists but then everything you write would be blocked if your IP address ended up there.
We don’t have any lists of forbidden words or similar.
I honestly believe that Trump does not want any major conflict with Iran right now under any circumstances. I haven’t been following recent events in the Middle East, but Iran has essentially been greatly weakened, right? Syria – gone, Hezbollah and Hamas – if not neutralized, then significantly weakened.
If something were to happen in Iran, we can be sure that oil prices will rise, and Trump wants to lower the price of oil. That’s why he is so keen on getting Russia back on good terms. He knows that his popularity is solely based on the economy/average Joe – at least that’s how his supporters see it.
My take on the whole situation is as follows:
Look up US debt clockorg; the US national debt has increased from 20 trillion USD (which is probably billion in Swedish?) from 2020, so it has essentially doubled, right? During the current year, from November 1, 2024, the cost of interest is already over 1 trillion USD; Medicare 1.67 trillion and Social Security 1.5 trillion. Interest is the third largest expense and is rising significantly this year. The total cost of interest in the previous year was around 1.2 trillion USD, and if my projection is correct, we will have reached the previous year’s interest cost already after six months. The national debt is increasing by about 1 trillion every 3 months, long-term debt has been replaced by short-term, and interest rates that used to be 0.5 – 1/2% are now over 4.25%.
Trump was elected on the promise that the average Joe would be better off and tax cuts. He promised a series of tax cuts; Trump’s tax exclusions are likely to continue, reduced corporate tax, and no tax on tips.
It is this above that Trump knows about, and he is now trying to bring back industrial activity in the US (through tariffs), his administration will surely continue to try to lower the prices of commodities / raw materials. I am fairly certain that the American Federal Reserve will
1) start printing money again – probably coming as early as Q3 this year
2) have some form of yield control, interest rates are literally eating up the entire American budget as it is now
=> prepare for inflation, maybe not 8-10%, but certainly 4-5% in the coming years.
3) within a couple of years, we will have some form of updated monetary system.
How will the EU respond to this? A not too daring guess is that companies that have benefited Trump will face tougher times ahead. The EU has a deficit in the service sector compared to the US – will we see some form of extra tax targeting American tech giants?
Nord Stream / Russian gas:
Germany has been hit exceptionally hard by its miserable energy policy. With AI advancing, the need for electricity will explode, an AI search requires about 3 or 4 times more electricity compared to a traditional search. We already have an electricity shortage in the EU, AI will make it even worse. Nuclear power takes a long time to build (>10 years in Europe with all planning processes/appeals) and in the meantime, we need something else. What is this alternative in 5-10 years – well, gas. We can certainly import LNG from the US (but if that export raises American gas prices, you can be sure that Trump will set a limit here), Qatar/Saudi can surely increase volumes, but I see it as inevitable that Russia will play a significant role in the European energy system, whether we like it or not. Then one can consider whether Russia (as I have speculated myself) will survive the next 3 years – it will probably become a Muscovite state and a series of breakaway republics.
Best regards,
Johan
The involvement of the tech giants who have rallied behind Trump is interesting from many perspectives. The USA has a large trade surplus with the EU regarding these products, and the EU is eager to tax them. Trump is rattling with threats of tariffs on physical products; is it all a game to prevent the EU from touching the tech industry’s exports to the EU?
Interesting Migrantjohan
I saw many who miss the big picture.
So, Trump is not trading Europe for Russia.
A cold war is being created through Russia where Europe is dependent on the USA for everything, including protection.
And capital flows back into the USA from Europe, and the world.
So, I didn’t come up with this myself but found something on Google apparently called the Cold War, which lasted until 1989 😳
That it’s a low blow is irrelevant, that the personal relationship Trump-Putin is also irrelevant.
Secondly, do not confuse what the USA is planning with the actual outcome.
Europe has every chance to completely shake up 150,000 Russians in a Baltic nature reserve in September and ensure that Ukraine wins the war – THEN there will be peace in our time as well.
Scenarios like this are always worst-case, but Western leaders MUST plan for it.
Anyway, they know about it now 😀
Now I am a “desk analyst” with limited military expertise, but why should Putin risk a two-front war by invading the Baltics at all, given how poorly things are going in Ukraine?
Admittedly, he is sewing discord within NATO, that’s true, but on the other hand: historically, two-front wars tend to lead to losses, right? Like for example, both during the 1st and 2nd World Wars?
I might have misunderstood, but if I understand the Russian doctrine correctly, they rely heavily on history and avoiding historical mistakes. For example, Putin knows how important political “stability” is. Political instability led to Yeltsin’s downfall, after all.
What is the worst that can happen to him?
He has to retreat back over the border and Trump calls it a misunderstanding.
If the Russians cross the NATO border, they must be prepared for the Øresund to close; if Turkey also closes the Bosporus, the Russians will only have Murmansk and Vladivostok left for their trade.
Belarus is in a precarious situation in September. If Putin wants to test paragraph 5, the northern part of Norway is also in a precarious situation, partly for logistical reasons and partly because both the USA and Russia are interested in the areas around the North Pole.
However, they cannot then drive with tariffs and dollar depreciation. And if they want us to be dependent on their protection, they should do everything to show that their guarantees are worth something. Now they are doing the opposite and the euro strengthens against the dollar, and American defense stocks fall while ours rise.
Until the day Europe is at war and has no choice but to come back to the USA 🧐
The whole poker game probably depends on whether the black swan is successful or not.
And capital flows are not particularly patriotic or political – they go to security and good business.
Fast Europe plus Ukraine against the battered Moscow empire have several cards to play that Moscow cannot handle. I don’t think Russia is eager to risk something like that. They surely want to show their teeth, but if they really try to bite, then I think they are getting in over their heads. Do they want to risk something like that to pave the way for a new Cold War that the USA benefits from…
During the “old” Cold War, there were two superpowers, the USA and the Soviet Union. Now it’s the USA, the EU (slow but quite strong economically), and China. Russia is only big in words and size, the rest is just flesh and shit.
I don’t think the USA would benefit from a new Cold War, especially since they openly support Russia when it comes to Ukraine.
China may be a first-class repressive dictatorship, but if the USA initiates a Cold War in Europe, I will probably gladly buy cheaper products of equal or higher quality from China. It will be a new golden age for China, while the USA’s era as a superpower is over.
Yes, it is a good thought model that the Cold War has returned with a lot of Russian revanchism. And chauvinism. Soviet Union 2.0.
Very interesting about their national debt. The American economy is facing challenges to say the least, and it could very well turn out like your printing-money scenario. A comment on Nord Stream: Norwegian companies now account for approximately the same share of Europe’s gas as Gazprom did before, so the Russian train has probably left. Of course, the US could stop selling to Europe and try to get us to buy Russian gas again. But I don’t think Europe will put itself in a bind once more. Germany would rather reopen its coal power plants, I guess.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and its weaponisation of Europe’s energy supply, the share of Russian pipeline gas in total EU energy imports has fallen dramatically from 41% in 2021 to about 18% in 2024. This has been replaced mainly by LNG from the US, which supplied 45% of EU LNG imports in 2024 and reliable pipeline gas imports from Norway (50% compared to 30% in 2021), North-Africa (18%) and Azerbaijan (7%).
https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en
Norway is a stable player with stable rules but…. Gas production has peaked, Norway can certainly continue to supply Europe with oil and gas but the laws of physics apply here, whether you want it or not.
I don’t think coal power plants will be opened in the future, my take is gas which will then be replaced by nuclear power.
kk=nuclear power or bankruptcy, just choose…
Can Germany get some of the nuclear power plants that have not been dismantled up and running again?
Now let’s see what happens, if that actually happens, but this could of course lead to oil prices rising if countries no longer want to trade oil from Venezuela.
Probably mainly benefits Russia and the USA. If it’s done because of those “tens of thousands of criminals,” it’s a completely senseless move, I rather guess it’s a job ordered by Putin but the excuse fits well to show Trump’s core voters that he is tough on illegal, criminal immigrants.
What’s a bit funny is that the USA accounts for a large part of the import of oil from there.
“Countries buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25 percent tariff on all trade with the USA, announces the country’s president Donald Trump on Truth Social. As reasons for the tariffs, Trump claims that Venezuela has secretly sent “tens of thousands of criminals” to the USA and that the country has been “very hostile.” “
https://omni.se/trump-lovar-sekundara-tullar-for-venezuela/a/OoJrpV
A low oil price benefits the economic development in the USA so one wonders what will happen.
It is absolutely horrific, to be honest, with Venezuela, a country that has the world’s largest oil reserves. I think Trump wants Venezuela but he knows that if he were to use Canada/Greenland’s rhetoric, he would only get a finger. Am I reading it wrong if I interpret it as Trump trying to get better prices if the US buys than the rest of the world?
The oil (heavy as it is) from Venezuela is a must for the Yankees. The USA produces light crude (shale oil), which must be blended with heavy oil (from Venezuela or Canada).
That will totally sink Venezuela 😶
The price to pump oil from existing wells in the US was on average 38 USD/barrel last year, while opening a new source required a price of 62 USD/barrel. So now we are approaching the profitability threshold for drilling new wells. If they go after Iran, they will increase the price, the same goes for Venezuela, and I can probably agree with EmigrantJohan that he might want to take over Venezuela. Wasn’t it the case that the American oil companies were expelled from there a number of years ago?
“Ukrainian strikes on the Russian energy sector have caused Russia 60 billion rubles ($658 million) in damage in six months, according to a joint investigation by Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight⤵️”
That is probably significantly underestimated
Seven billion kronor? Unfortunately, that is very little. Russian oil and gas exports in 2021 were 1700 billion SEK, if I google correctly. It’s probably less today but still.
“Zelenskyy, Macron discuss increasing number of Mirage-2000 #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lleabltcbz2o
Macron is VERY CLEAR that it is the borders of 1991 that apply.
And France has tested the nuclear forces.
Macron, whom everyone loves to hate, has taken on the leadership role since January 2024 😀
Vive la republique 💪🏻✊🏻✊🏻!
“Ryska sprängämnestillverkare har enligt uppgift kringgått sanktioner genom att skaffa viktiga kemikalier för sprängämnestillverkning via gödselföretag.”
“Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sánchez: “We will continue to defend international law by supporting Ukraine in a war against Putin’s imperialism. There is no greater guarantee of security for Europe and Ukraine than the existence of a well-equipped Ukrainian army.””
Do you think that the leaders in Europe have read the comments section?
I believe and hope so. It is a good level of discussion here.
Could the biggest threat to the USA be losing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
All this talk about high national debt and so on is only relevant if they can no longer print unlimited amounts of dollars, right?
Isn’t the biggest threat to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency the euro?
But if it is true, as one has read, that Trump wants to pressure the dollar due to their immense interest expenses, doesn’t that cause the dollar to then weaken as a world currency? Then it’s not just the Euro that (from the US perspective) risks becoming dominant, there are plans for new currencies too!
Now, I don’t think the BRICS countries will be able to agree on a world currency as they are all equally power-hungry, but China with its supporters could create something competitive. What would the US gain from that?
I.can’t.put.it.together!
The USA may not want to lower its currency?
No, so that theory seems very far-fetched to me.
We all know what happened to Saddam Hussein when he wanted to sell his oil in Euros.
Well, whether it will be Euros or some form of cryptocurrency remains to be seen.
But it is clear that if you have a world currency, you can export inflation in a way that no other nation can.
Every economist knows this.
So sooner or later, there will be some form of cryptocurrency that no one can manipulate.
Details: The pilot, whose identity remains undisclosed, says that F-16 fighter pilots carry out multiple strike missions a day on Russia and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Additionally, pilots conduct flights to cover fellow combat aviators operating MiG-29, Su-27, Su-24, and Su-25 aircraft.
The pilot notes that Ukrainian forces have demonstrated high effectiveness in using Western air and ground-based equipment.
Quote: “Almost every missile hits its target… More than 80% of the missiles we launch reach their targets, destroying both Shahed drones and cruise missiles launched from sea, air, and land.
We know our targets in advance – our intelligence is working quite well, despite media claims that we do not receive intelligence data… One could say our intelligence forces adapt very quickly, and we receive up-to-date information.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbTB45flFk
If you talk to him, you have to inform him that he is wrong because it would take AT LEAST six years to become proficient enough on the Gripen for a Ukrainian pilot, according to many very knowledgeable people on that other forum – former pilots among others.
Well, mastering all parts of the mission packages that you can fly with a plane like Gripen so that you, together with your colleagues, can plan and execute any type of mission usually takes about 6 years. Then you are a qualified field pilot and have laid the foundation. Moreover, the Swedish training maintains a high international standard and can be considered quite fast. Becoming really good at it requires even more flight hours with colleagues. Surely, things move faster in war, for better or for worse (we have seen F16s crashing due to pilot errors, for example).
Learning the basics of one or two mission profiles and being able to execute them with the support of more experienced pilots is much quicker, even more so in war. So, nothing strange at all, if it had been Gripen flying, it would have probably looked the same. Then, one lets F16s fly specific mission profiles while allowing MIG and SU to do what these platforms handle equally well (or better).
The big question mark is China. I keep nagging about this, because it is an important factor.
Regarding Russia’s Zapad 2025 plans, there are discussions about whether RU has the capacity for such an undertaking.
What we know:
RU can gather x number of thousand men, and it is likely that they have set aside equipment and material for them. In addition to this, there is logistics and maintenance. So, the actual number of personnel will be significantly larger.
We also know that China, both overtly and subtly, supports Russia.
Indications point to some kind of Russian action during the summer – fall, probably in connection with Zapad 2025.
China has stated that they can contribute a so-called peacekeeping force of 10K men in Ukraine.
Discussion:
Just the fact that China is willing to send 10,000 men to Ukraine is a red flag.
Has China ever been interested in sending soldiers for peacekeeping missions? There are plenty of conflict areas they could have engaged in, but apparently they have been uninterested from a Chinese perspective. The fact that they are now interested in sending a peacekeeping force is undeniably strange. Remember that China does not do anything unless it is in China’s interest. So, WHAT is China interested in?
Then we have Russia. With so many indications that they are preparing some kind of attack on the EU/NATO, some questions arise. RU would not do such a thing if they did not know they had the personnel and equipment for it – to face a qualified opponent. So who is the “back-up”?
The most likely answer is China, both directly and indirectly through North Korea.
If China sends a “peacekeeping force” to Ukraine, WHO controls WHAT equipment this force brings with them? It is entirely possible for China to have 1000 drone pilots and 100,000 drones with them. China has also developed autonomous, hunting drone swarms.
We do not really know what China’s intention is with a “peacekeeping” force in Ukraine. But the fact THAT they have an interest in sending a force there is ominous.
Knowledgeable people have pointed to Svalbard/the Arctic Ocean/the Nordic region as potential conflict areas.
What do we know about Chinese presence in these areas?
Would any country have the ability to timely prevent a potential Chinese troop transport to that area?
Naturally, there is a great focus on Russia and what they do and say. We must also focus equally on China. Unfortunately, China flies a bit under the radar because they do not make much noise.
RU and PRC (China) seem to be working towards the same goal – to divide the Western world.
Assumptions:
We can probably assume that China’s presence (if/when it happens) in Ukraine will serve entirely different purposes than the official peace mission. One such purpose could, among other things, be to free up Russian troops for other missions.
We can also assume that RU will carry out one or more actions in Europe during the summer/fall, with support from China (directly and indirectly).
We can also likely assume that drones will be used to a greater extent against civilians and civil infrastructure than we have seen so far in Ukraine.
Consideration:
Could the 4 missing US soldiers in Lithuania have been kidnapped to be used in a (Russian) false flag operation? Since no bodies have been found, where are they? The idea that they could be used in a false flag operation is unfortunately not completely unthinkable.
China has no real foothold on Svalbard. They have a small red wooden building in Ny-Ålesund that is supposed to be some form of research station. The only spectacular thing about the barracks is that the entrance is guarded by two lions. I don’t think it has been expanded since I was there last.
Ny-Ålesund has a population of 30-70 people, and all are basically researchers or maintain the facilities. The handful of Chinese people living there probably couldn’t even conquer the village since everyone is armed when they go outside the door, even if they’re just going over to the neighbor’s. In Ny-Ålesund, they fear polar bears more than Chinese.
Did it not say that the four soldiers were found drowned?
It was someone who had misinterpreted a statement, they are still considered missing.
They are believed to have disappeared in a mud puddle, sounds incredible.
I usually write that what will determine whether this becomes a global conflict or not is China.
Also, count on Chinese Special Operations Forces in Kaliningrad and Belarus this summer so the West cannot attack those two areas.
Kaliningrad is supposed to be autonomous and Belarus is a “neutral” country which China will capitalize on to the maximum towards Russia by deploying SOF there and threatening world war if they so much as stub their thumb
Republicans in the Senate are putting pressure on Defense Minister Pete Hegseth for the leak in the war shadow on Signal, several media outlets report. Several have almost urged him to resign and call the misstep a clear “blunder,” reports The Hill. Hegseth is criticized not only for sharing war plans while a journalist was present in the chat, but also for sharing them at all in a commercial app.
It’s not entirely popular within the GOP that Hegseth has pulled a Waltz on what he shared in the chat.
Fun that Trump immediately has problems with MAGA 🤣🤣
On the 27th of March, truly became the day of the long lines with interesting and at times frightening reasoning. The thoughts of a Russian-supported operation in Ukraine by “peacekeeping” Chinese forces, gaining the power to test NATO in the Baltics or Northern Norway, are enough to disrupt my beauty sleep.
Unfortunately, my knowledge is not sufficient to continue along the indicated line but gets stuck on two questions.
1. How can China justify such an effort considering that exports to Europe would immediately collapse – can they afford the loss? Olga and Ivan can hardly afford to buy consumer electronics.
2. How will Russia proceed after securing a corner of NATO? Do they have the military strength to withstand NATO’s response, or are they calculating coldly that the response will not come?
Re: point 1:
Partly, Europe will more or less be forced to continue buying technology, as Europe does not have such a large manufacturing base. So that market will remain, albeit perhaps on a slightly smaller scale. The Chinese will probably manage it, they have likely factored in this loss. Also, China does things for ideological reasons, which means that regardless of complexity and economics, it will be carried out as long as it ultimately benefits China in one way or another. Additionally, they have the whole of Asia (and Africa) to sell their products to, and if they can bring Asian countries closer to them, as well as African ones, they will do so.
Since China controls all domestic information, they can always blame the evil and decadent West… or do “a Russia” – claim to be threatened by the US/Europe/Western world, etc. We should not underestimate the Chinese.
Re: point 2:
RY might do a variation of Crimea; sit on a piece and see what happens… if not much happens, they stay and annex. If NATO/Europe is sufficiently divided and/or has its own internal problems, maybe a corner of NATO is not worth arguing about… and then they will remain. Moreover, they don’t need to stay, the fact that they can give NATO/Europe these pinpricks will be quite stressful for Europe and NATO.
RY can enter, make a point, leave, and then do it all over again in another place. After a while, Europe/NATO will probably get used to it and it will become the new normal, as well as a constant source of stress – “where will they strike next?” The day RY truly strikes, no one will react sufficiently.
I have consulted Budanov –
1. I personally don’t believe that China is part of this chain of events that Trump and Putin have concocted.
2. you’re asking the wrong way 😀
What is the worst thing that could happen to Putin if he grabs a corner of NATO?
I think the worst is a wild retreat across the border and that NATO won’t attack into Russia so maybe 80% of 150,000 soldiers, which for Putin is considered pocket change.
Good. Where do I sign?
Great Russian losses sound good, can hardly wait until September.
1. The first point I completely agree with you on. I think they are very cautious about, at least openly, getting involved in the conflict here, as it is the Western world that has footed the bill for China’s growth. However, I believe they are considering that Chinese peacekeeping troops in Ukraine could be approved by Russia, and provide positive publicity for China in Europe, which could strengthen their influence.
2. I think the Russians are probably testing and seeing what happens. It was Stalin who said, “Probe with a bayonet: if you meet steel, stop. If you meet mush, then push.”
Sigh, now the Swedish peace movement is underway
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svenska-freds-upprustningen-kan-reta-ryssland
Good timing, one might say. Useful idiots or paid idiots, it doesn’t matter, they serve the interests of the Moscow regime.
Better then with some American boy culture. It has gained momentum with the gang around Trump. You have to take some spills and hits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Fulz4ytZ54
It would almost be a warning to that one!
If “The old man” had seen someone miss a beer, he would have given up hope for humanity.
A little joy at a bar was something the old man had never declined.
Is that the answer, that we should change signs?
– Yes, among other things. So that the tanks don’t find their way. We need to be very creative. 🤡🤡🤡🤡
An APPALLING person – to have witnessed three years of war in Ukraine and then pursue this agenda is a threat to national security even if the individual is entitled to an opinion.
Why does she get time on SVT?
Of course, it’s fun with rhetorical questions.
To PS has a mission from your politicians, you have surely voted, to convey the views of many. And in this case, it was brilliant because we got to hear what absurd thoughts they have and how crazy they are.
That the USA has been acting to hold back Europe since 1943 was new but makes sense.
However, as MXT points out in their comment, Russia lacks purchasing power compared to many countries in Europe. Unless they pay in kind, but it was Trump himself who said that the US lacks nothing when it comes to raw materials.
For Europe to remain and become stronger economically, military strength is required. Taking over as the leading military industry can also contribute to economic strength, as Russia may be forced to look elsewhere when Europe is arming itself, creating a potential market for European defense material in these countries.
Churchill has quite vividly described 1943 – 1945 and can well be considered a credible witness to the truth?
Even though his perspective was to try to preserve the British Empire.
He didn’t even manage to save Poland.
Yes, Russia gives the US all the deals but one side effect is that Europe becomes dependent on the US for another 70 years – and the rest of the world too.
It’s simply a repeat of the Cold War.
Anyone who has any news from the war in Ukraine, from the front?
Did you survive the Åland boat?
Home from the intensive care unit now ✊
Do you suspect that you did a “submarine”….?
That was what you drank in your youth.
We used to just down the glass, found a slightly more refined version online.
Will have to try it when the worst group of guys come to visit.
https://youtu.be/bMxt7wbh8o0?si=0b3qBtlgeQyHYrQe
We only drank mead in my youth. 😳
Oops, oh my – tomorrow is party time 🍻
I think it’s the first time Dengamle is joining actually – brace yourself, it’s going to be wild
Loaded with morning shots from the Finland ferry. 💪✊🥰
I’m gearing up with… well, you’ll see… 😉
EU Council imposes new sanctions against Belarus over Lukashenko’s so-called election. 🚫 The new sanctions target a total of 25 individuals and 7 legal entities “responsible for undermining democracy and the rule of law in Belarus.
A bit sweaty right now, is it because of sanctions or Zapad 25?
Israel provided sensitive intelligence on a key Houthi military operative targeted in an attack described by Waltz in Signal chat, – WSJ 👀 Israeli officials have complained privately to U.S. officials that Waltz’s text has become public.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3llf6fuviw22g
What’s worse, an angry Trump or Mossad chief?
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius signaled willingness to help secure peace in Ukraine with boots on the ground, – Politico
The Germans are polishing their boots and revving up the engines.
Trumps new mineral deal, read at your own risk 😡
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1905231270889533835?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Completely unscrupulous to even make such an opening bid. Such an agreement makes a future EU membership difficult, very difficult.
Russia suffered over 55,000 casualties during the Kursk Oblast operation, according to Syrskyi. In the past seven and a half months, Russian losses have reportedly included 22,200 killed in action and 31,800 wounded.
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3llenbwp7dk2g
EU plans a major defeat
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3llfbo4ql622n
Peter Hegseth seems to have a Russian burner phone unless it’s troll magic.
This page is among the best for getting information about the war in Ukraine and the political game surrounding the conflict. Even the comments and speculations are on a significantly better level than they are on The Other Blog. There, it seems to be much more restrictive and closer to the door. Probably because the blogger there seems to show signs of overexertion.
But after I have said this, I miss a link list here, preferably a list that one could rate. For example, Konstatin Samoilov’s YouTube channel, which covers what is happening in Russia, is something that I really appreciate and that I would have given a high rating if I could have done so.
https://youtube.com/@insiderussia?si=cdiayyqv_k-Z1U-0
A small prelude to Friday cozy time.
Some things were better in the past.
Back when the USA was the USA and the president was made of the right stuff.
I miss a similar speech but directed towards Putin and Russia.
https://youtu.be/pjYMVSA6xM8?si=-yaXlOR6BYVuCiES
Link list is not a bad idea and neither is being able to vote (and suggest your own links). Fixing a simple link list as soon as possible, then it takes a little time to build one that can be voted on, etc. so we’ll see when (and if) I take the time to do it.
Thank you for liking the proposal.
Aaah but what the heck, you read my mind, I have also wanted to have a list.
Good suggestion
Valerij Zaluzjnyj flat out says that there really is no Article Five.
Many of you here are probably familiar with Ukraine matters.
If you have missed this one or still doubt what Johanno1 is trying to say, you have a few more independent sources here.
https://www.youtube.com/live/qqT5qq9VCok?si=t34OtQWK3w5NKQ9Z
Saw your suggestion about a list of links this morning, good idea!