This weekend, 10 government planes flew from Moscow to Samara and Kazan. The information circulated on Twitter among accounts we consider credible but has not gained traction.
There were screenshots from the usual sites like flightradar24, and 10 flights belonging to the government were identified leaving Moscow at the same time of day.
Our initial leading global analysis was that RU intended to escalate – mostly because there were no indications of another vodka run, and that was the last time everyone left Moscow. At least that was the flash message we sent to all the leaders in Europe so they would understand what was going on.
The day after, Merz announced that all restrictions for Ukraine to target objectives in Russia with Western weapons had been completely lifted by the USA, Germany, France, and the UK.
When everyone immediately asked, “Has Ukraine had restrictions until now, wtf?” Merz clarified that those restrictions had already been lifted at the turn of the year.
My follow-up question – “Did Ukraine have restrictions until the turn of the year?”
(we knew they did because Sullivan had been clear about it, but when Merz reads this post, there will probably be a new statement that the restrictions were already lifted in November).
I also don’t believe for a second that Biden and Sullivan lifted all restrictions 20 days before they left office, and that it was also completely silent about it, and that Ukraine chose not to target any objectives inside Russia even though Western leaders begged on their knees for them to do so.
I also wonder if Kier Starmer has received a response to the letter he sent by snail mail to Macron asking if they could use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia, or if he is still checking the mailbox?
Anyway – Ukraine has not targeted many high-value objectives since the turn of the year, quite the opposite.
We’ve had beautiful periods when 2-3 refineries a week had their distillation towers blown up in colorful clouds of burning gasoline and flying Russians.
Then Ukraine tried to target the Kerch Bridge with a DHL bomb and received a severe scolding for the act.
When Kiev is covered in robots and shaheds, the Kremlin, Frunzenskaya, and the May 9th parade remain untouched.
And the oil fields and export ports – at least the ports were targeted for a while, but Ukraine has not dared to touch the oil fields.
So allow me to doubt that the USA, UK, Germany, and France all unanimously lifted restrictions at the turn of the year – Merz is caught in his first emergency lie.
And above all – why didn’t the 10 government planes head to the war bunkers already at the turn of the year, and why did Putin have a parade on May 9th where the entire leadership was lined up like a big bullseye if the West bombarded Zelensky with emails to drone the parade.
Because you can be extremely confident that Ukraine would have ended the war by covering that balustrade in a violent drone cloud and then showing sweeping drone footage of all the bodies – citizens of 29 countries would have thanked Ukraine for being spared continued life under despots.
But…
Merz is the leader who seems to have the strongest domestic mandate to drive escalation from the West, and he also seems very German – when they have made up their minds, they go for it, as we learned the hard way already last century.
Because now, a few days after Merz confirms that all countries have lifted their geographical restrictions, including the USA – the next letter bomb to Putin is on its way.
Germany will finance Ukraine’s production of long-range robots up to 2500km with the frozen Russian funds and their own pesetas.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-ukraine-sign-deal-long-range-weapons-cooperation
This has been a very bad week for Putin 🤣🤣
And now the entire leadership is sulking in the war bunkers in Samara and Kazan because they forgot the caviar in the midst of all the moving chaos.
Yes, Merz must deliver in action as well, but if Ukraine has been given free rein to target whatever they want, objectives like the Kerch Bridge, refineries, export ports, oil fields, and power infrastructure should explode pretty soon.
But the devil may be in the details because Merz used the words “military objectives,” and we don’t know the definition of those yet – we’ll just have to wait and see 🧐
Back to Samara and Kazan, the genius Lammis posted on https://johanno1.se/en/ukraine-daily-update-may-28-2025/ that RU has built a new nuclear weapon storage facility in the geographical area, quite a lot of new nuclear weapon storage.
(that decision was probably made before Ukraine’s drone weapons had ranges that easily reached there).
I just want to add that Russia calculated a few years ago that they might have to move to the Urals – so maybe the war is going better than their worst-case scenario?
For those who didn’t sleep through high school, you know that during WW2, Russia moved all factories to the Urals to avoid being bombed by the Germans, and then you can google Stalin’s bunker in Samara if you want and look at beautiful photos.
Samara and Kazan are also supposed to be the headquarters for the higher staff in case of war since WW2, and also the government/country’s leadership?
Putin sat in his bunker the entire first year of the war, and we made some jokes about that.
However, I find this interesting because we’ve gone from a parade on Red Square on May 9th where five hundred targets were lined up to them moving to the bunkers in the Urals two weeks later.
There are only two alternatives – either they intend to escalate, or we intend to escalate.
If they are so afraid of Ukraine that they moved to the Urals, then this may soon be over.
But if they themselves plan to raise the temperature, it will be a power struggle, and then Europe and the USA must stand strong because Ukraine may not be able to handle this alone.
It is clear that Merz has significantly increased pressure on Russia, and throughout the entire war, we have seen Russia respond with increased violence.
Which they seem to have done with the war’s largest terror bombings of Kiev, suggesting that they knew about the decision before Merz’s press conference 😀
But we know they did because they moved to the war bunkers a few days before.
At least Merz didn’t let himself be intimidated, but Germans rarely do, perhaps.
Russia tried to bring down Merz at the beginning if you remember, it’s the first time a chancellor hasn’t been elected, but a quick round two worked better, and no one discusses the blood and the broken glasses in the meeting room.
So Merz has four years, he took the lead immediately, and as long as he stays reasonably on track, this could be really bad for Putin.
Now, GRU is desperately searching for something to bring him down, so we really hope he doesn’t have a profile on Grndr.
By the way, did you know that China bought Grnder a few years ago 🧐
If Merz doesn’t pull a Thyberg, there’s a chance he can push forward, and the greats of history like Merkel, AfD, and Schröder are completely furious with him.
Scholz, the man who wasn’t even upset about 80,000 civilians killed in Mariupol, has also been given high blood pressure by Merz.
Looking good so far, the hornet’s nest is buzzing 😀
Russia has had a very ambitious plan for 2024/2025 –
Moldova, Romania, Germany, and France have all had election influence in higher education.
Keir Starmer is under a lot of pressure, but he has also started in the wrong end with harsh penalties for thought crimes and a few other things that have made the citizens angry. He is also under artillery fire from his own party now and probably can’t be a driving force – Labour questions why he is not pushing classic workers’ issues and also struts around in very expensive suits he received as gifts from billionaires.
We’ll have to wait for Poland until Sunday, but if the pro-Russians win, there is cause for concern.
In Sweden, I don’t think GRU needs to influence at all because our opposition smells power and would bring down the government on the spot if they found an opening. The GRU section chief in Sweden probably plays Rise of Nations and learns Swedish, so he has plenty of time.
We know that Russia intends to continue, but then “everything is always relative” applies to them as well.
Merz’s escalation should result in a Russian escalation – Belarus down into Ukraine, from Russia into the Baltics, or Svalbard is really the only thing left on our side of the planet.
The big question mark is Trump – since January 20, he has gone from rigged peace negotiations to everyone toughening up, to him getting hold of a brochure from the social services about low affective treatment and other chances that he embraced.
Now he’s upset again that Putin has deceived him but wants to assess the situation a bit.
It’s quite clear that Putin makes him look bad, “I talked to Putin for two hours, now there will be peace” – Russia carries out the worst terror bombings of the war against Kiev the next day.
It’s probably enough if Trump backs off now that Merz has found his inner German officer, but Trump could also bring down Putin in a week – high probability that Putin has convinced the criminal clan that he has Trump on his side or under control.
If Trump goes all-in with Ukraine, the war will end quite quickly because then Putin will be sacrificed.
Trump has a rather unique ability to always overdo everything, and if the focus is directed towards Putin and he starts his rants, then Putin will avoid gas stations like the plague after that.
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Good morning! The Russian losses in Ukraine on 2025-05-29. As you can see, tanks are completely missing and there is only one AFV. Nice to see that there are fewer UAVs than there have been lately. Hope that most in Ukraine have had a peaceful night.
SLAVA UKRAINI!
Over 5000 artillery attacks (see below) but for a few days now there have been relatively low artillery losses. The Russians have thus used artillery extensively, but lost fewer pieces than usual? Or am I mistaken? One thing is that the rear combat is in decline. But shouldn’t artillery combat increase as the number of artillery attacks rises? I think the numbers are low even compared to how it looked before Ukraine started rear combat using long-range drones.
Thank you for today’s post! 👍
I really hope that Merz and Germany will also find the courage to deliver Taurus, as they are almost doing everything else right.
Some comments:
It was only now that Merz announced that they were lifting the restrictions already at New Year’s.
Nothing was said about it then.
You write:
“I don’t believe for a second that Biden and Sullivan lifted all restrictions 20 days before they resigned and that it was completely silent about it, and that Ukraine chose not to target any goals inside Russia even though Western leaders begged on their knees for them to do so.”
If it was silent at New Year’s, why couldn’t it have been silent about it if it was actually the case that Biden had already lifted the restrictions as the last thing he did?
Or do you mean that the restrictions have only been lifted now, but Merz is trying to save face by claiming that it applied from New Year’s?
I would have also guessed that lifted restrictions should have been something that would be officially announced right away, but at the same time, we know that the West is still afraid of Russia’s red lines.
Perhaps they kept quiet to avoid Russia’s outrage and to pretend that Ukraine was doing as they pleased without approval?
The fact that the West has not provided long-range weapons to any great extent also means that lifted restrictions are not that important. Ukraine is doing as they please with their own developments.
Regarding Stor Shadows, I’m afraid there aren’t many of them left.
—
Regarding the parade, I actually don’t think Ukraine wanted to strike it, it would probably just have escalated the war and Russia would have received even more support from outside.
Not even Russia has made an effort and done everything they can to bomb the government buildings in Kyiv.
Taking the life of the other country’s leader probably entails too much uncertainty to dare to do it. However, when the war is over, it wouldn’t surprise me if both sides try assassinations.
—
The reason Ukraine hasn’t struck more against refineries and oil depots could very well be because someone (Trump?) has said something.
At the same time, we have also seen images of how Russia has almost fortified their refineries and probably deployed a large number of shooters. Oil is their most important export income and is also a crucial asset in the country.
The drones Ukraine has used are slow-moving and probably quite easy to shoot down if one is prepared. Ukraine shoots down most of the Shaheds that the Russians send.
It may simply be that it is not as easy to strike refineries and oil depots now that the Russians have had time to prepare.
We also do not know if they are actually continuing to try, but they have not had any major successes.
—
I see that you are once again hoping for the slim chance that Trump will turn against Putin and choose to go “all in.” It’s probably the tiny bit of hope that we who cried rivers when he won the election have held onto. Personally, I have given up that dream, it probably doesn’t matter what happens, Trump will not go against Putin other than symbolically if he is heavily pressured from within.
At best, Trump will drop everything but without making it easier for Russia. He will probably say something about how it’s a pity for both sides but that they have only themselves to blame when they don’t want peace.
Well written 👍🏻. I also don’t believe that Trump will go all in against Moscow. He likes to talk and bluster but doesn’t dare to take a tough stance against someone who is actually dangerous.
The best we can hope for is that he doesn’t lift the sanctions and continues to sell weapons to Ukraine. And I think that primarily depends on internal pressure and European pressure.
Regarding Merz, he only commented on the use of foreign long-range weapons against military targets in Russia. He also mentioned in the interview that some restrictions began to ease with Kursk, which we also know is true (Ukraine used ATACMs, among other things, in Kursk).
The West may have other restrictions that they deliver a bit discreetly, we can speculate about those of course. Raffen could be one of those, but it could also be that Moscow has temporarily won rock-paper-scissors.
As for the flights, unfortunately, I don’t think any conclusions can be drawn. I’ve been following flight radar apps for a while and it occasionally happens that a number of state flights take off around the same time and then have similar routes (and sometimes completely different routes). Various experts and wizards usually explain it by saying that Putin is going to fly and they don’t want it to be easy to understand which plane he is on (or where he is actually heading).
👍
Good point there about the airplanes. He will probably become more and more paranoid the longer the war goes on and the older he gets. In a couple of years (if he’s still alive then), there will be 50 planes when he needs to go somewhere.
Thank you!
Good to have some different perspectives.
Thank you too! 👍
I put my hope in Ukraine, their soldiers, and their own defense industry. That they will come up with new countermeasures and ramp up the production of weapons that work both in function and in volume. I’d rather have thousands of something with slightly less function than Storm Shadow than tens of super-duper good robots.
Kahneman writes about a phenomenon he calls WYSIATI, “what you see is all there is,” which is about the brain analyzing based on the data it has and then believing in the analysis even if there is very little data to see. We see Trump, and we see statements from Merz, etc. But we don’t see the domestic politics in Russia, and we don’t see the development of means and countermeasures until a little later. Maybe the Russian elite was targeted because of an internal shot in Moscow? Anyway, it’s good that they personally incur at least a small cost to conduct the war in the form of caviar-less bunker existence.
I also have some hope that Germany sees the opportunity to revive its declining industry through the production of defense materials. It’s in their interest so it doesn’t require any altruism or morality, just plain stinginess and a desire to win the next election.
I agree that Ukraine will probably find solutions on their own.
That part about the analysis is probably completely accurate. We analyze based on what we know, but we don’t know how little we actually know. Fits well with my analysis in the other post about tanks. Based solely on reported losses, which is really not enough except to draw conclusions about the losses.
And it seems that it is an important part of the German aid package to Ukraine – to financially assist in increasing the Ukrainian production of their own weapons, including long-range missiles (apparently they, with the help of that funding, should already be able to be out on the battlefield in a few weeks. Surely the Germans are counting on spin-off effects that will benefit their own defense industry as well.
As you say about WYIATI, there is so much we do not see, and usually we only understand afterwards, when we see the results, that something has been brewing for a long time. By the way, speaking of domestic news, last week Konstantin on Inside Russia brought up rumors of a coup attempt in the Kremlin – I haven’t seen it, but here’s a link if anyone is interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt8VYEGDO70
Biden defense 😀
No, I don’t think Trump will turn around and that’s not what I wrote.
But if he did, that would be good, right?
Absolut, it would be great if he could turn around.
Maybe if I search, there is a little hope left down in the right pinky toe that it can happen.
It would be if the support for Ukraine in the USA grows so strong that he can’t ignore it.
AFU: “In total, 205 clashes were recorded during the past day.
Furthermore, they take up space in my daily life.
A trend reversal and not for the better
🐄
Update as of 08.00 29.05.2025 on the Russian invasion
In total, 205↘️ combat engagements were recorded over the past day.
#Kharkiv 4↘️⏱️9, 5, 6, 5, 5, 8, 6, 3, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 4, 11, 18, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8, 2, 2, 9, 6, 0, 0, 0, 4, 4, 0, 1, 2, 7, 1
#Kupyansk 8↗️⏱️2, 5, 2, 5, 5, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 5, 7, 6, 6, 5, 6, 9, 7, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 7, 11, 4
#Lyman 24💥↘️
#Siverskyi 3⏱️0, 3, 6, 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 10, 4, 3, 5, 3, 6, 8, 4, 8, 5, 6, -, 0, 3, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2
#Kramatorsk 15💥↗️
#Toretsk 21💥
#Pokrovsk 54💥💥💥↘️
According to preliminary data in the 22-report at 52 of 197↗️ combats, AFU🇺🇦 killed 97↗️ occupants and wounded another 46↘️, for a total of 143↗️ KWIA in this sector. AFU🇺🇦 destroyed seven vehicles, five motorcycles and 16 unmanned aerial vehicles.
#Novopavlivka 21💥↘️
#Huliaipil 0⏱️0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. 3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 0 , 0, 1, 1, 2, 7, 5, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
#Orikhivsk 6↘️
#Prydniprovsky 2⏱️0, 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 6, 5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1 , 1, 3, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0
#Kursk 33
Ukrainian defence forces continue operations in the Kursk sector. Over the past day the enemy 🇷🇺 carried out 20 air strikes, dropping 38 guided aerial bombs, and fired 205 times, four of which were from multiple launch rocket systems.
Over the last day, the aviation, missile forces and artillery of the Defence Forces 🇺🇦 struck 11 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, one UAV control point and two enemy artillery pieces.
Thank you 205, downward almost everywhere.
Note! Please observe that the last digits are the ones furthest to the left, older numbers to the right in the row, and the same in the chart, the curve goes from right to left, with today’s figure furthest to the left.
You were a bit tricked at first before realizing it was the other way around!
Kind of like pushing the stack with the number row, but not entirely obvious with the chart. Either flip the chart as it is used in most cases, or clarify with text/arrows.
I think it works well as it is now.
Thank you 205,
208 is quite high, isn’t it?
Fab seems to get them off as well
It’s probably enough if Trump backs off now that Merz has found his inner German officer, but Trump could also take down Putin in a week – It’s probably enough if Trump backs off now that Merz has found his inner German officer
It would probably be refreshing for Trump to mingle a bit with Metz, now that Merz is on the rise. Perhaps it can give a tired Trump from slow peace negotiations some inspiration and a fresh start in thinking about Ukraine and Russia. Besides, doesn’t Trump have relatives from Germany?
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Heroiam Slava!
Ryssjävlar 😡
snot gnomes said Bull
A court stops the majority of Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs, American media reports.
Three judges at the US Court of International Trade decide that Trump did not have the right to bypass Congress to impose tariffs by declaring a national emergency due to the trade deficit.
The halt applies to the 30 percent tariffs against China, the 25 percent tariffs on certain goods from Mexico and China, and the ten percent tariffs against the rest of the world’s countries.
The Trump administration is furious at the court’s decision to stop the majority of the president’s trade tariffs. Shortly after the announcement, the government states that the decision will be appealed.
“It is not up to unelected judges to decide how to address a national emergency correctly,” says White House spokesperson Kush Desai in a statement, as reported by CNN.
Nationellt nödläge 🤣🤣
Agree
What other country engages in illegal occupation? 🤔
“Israel approves the establishment of 22 new settlements in the occupied West Bank, reports AP. The decision includes both new settlements and the legalization of areas that have been built without government permission.
The decision “anchors our historical right to the land of Israel and constitutes a crushing response to Palestinian terrorism,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz in a statement.
Israel has built over 100 settlements in the West Bank where around half a million Israeli settlers live today. Last year, the International Court in The Hague ruled that the Israeli settlements violate international law.”
https://omni.se/israel-godkanner-22-nya-bosattningar-pa-vastbanken/a/pP8LKo
“The Irish government is working on a proposal to ban trade with Israeli settlements deemed illegal under international law, reports AFP.”
https://omni.se/irland-vill-forbjuda-handel-med-israeliska-bosattare/a/pP2o8V
International law is very flexible. For example, it was fine to recognize China’s communist government as legitimate, and thus return Hong Kong to the communists a few decades later instead of the legitimate democratic government in Taiwan when the hundred-year lease expired. So here too, it is probably enough for a few major countries to recognize Israel as the legitimate government over Palestine for it to suddenly be international law that they should rule over the territory.
Well, that might be the case.
Regardless, I think that sends completely wrong signals considering the current situation.
HAMAS must be eradicated, but those occupations are actually one of the reasons why many hate Israel, and expanding the occupation now can only be interpreted as them not being interested in reducing tensions at all.
I’m afraid they are aiming for a total ethnic cleansing.
I believe Israel will continue relentlessly until the hostage is released, then they will not have the support to continue. In my opinion, it is more likely that they cannot politically back down until the hostage is free, rather than they are after genocide. But the Middle East is tricky and nothing is black and white there. I prefer simple conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, where I find it easier to increase engagement.
That is escalating and ugly
Imagine that you and I agree! 😆
Well, they must stop that settlement if there is to be peace someday, and Hamas must go. If they hadn’t continued to move Israelis into occupied territory, perhaps Hamas wouldn’t have become so strong either.
However, they did try to demolish a lot of settlements in Gaza during Ariel Sharon’s time, but it only resulted in Hamas moving their positions forward and starting to shoot rockets from the newly liberated areas.
I don’t believe in Netanyahu’s “final solution,” a lot of innocent Palestinians are being killed, and the hatred towards Israel is increasing. He probably feels like he’s been given a free pass by Trump to do as he pleases, so now they have to go.
From 48 to 67, Gaza was occupied by Egypt and the West Bank by Jordan. Imagine if they had then created a Palestinian state, but no, a Palestinian state would include all of Israel… sigh, so many decisions have been made on the wrong grounds (religious and ideological), contributing to the misery of the Palestinians, so one can conclude that there won’t be any lasting peace there for several generations.
“Visas for students from China will be revoked, announces US Secretary of State Marco Rubio according to news agencies.”
https://omni.se/usa-aterkallar-visum-for-kinesiska-studenter/a/Xj0g9b
Ut med kineserna
Soon we will start to see more and more Chinese Nobel laureates and fewer American ones, China is investing in research and education, while the USA is deteriorating from the top down.
Elon Musk is leaving his role in Donald Trump’s administration, he confirms in a post on X.
“When my planned time as a special government employee now comes to an end, I want to thank President Donald Trump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending,” he writes.
Canada wants to join the EU’s huge rearmament project “Rearm Europe” to reduce dependence on the USA. This is stated by Prime Minister Mark Carney to the public service channel CBC.
– 75 cents of every dollar we spend on our defense goes to the USA. That’s not smart, he says.
Art of the Fart again 😂.
Good if Canada is approaching Europe 👍
👍
“Ukrainian military from the National Guard of Ukraine “Bureviy” destroyed a 🇷🇺Russian “Ural” truck with ammunition”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lqcaoiwqks22
Merz squirms a bit when it comes to Taurus…
“Chancellor Merz remains noncommittal on Taurus missile deliveries to Ukraine, saying it’s “within the realm of possibility” but pointing to long training requirements. Instead, he stresses urgent military aid and deeper cooperation on long-range weapons, agreed during talks with Zelensky in Berlin.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lqcafwjubs2k
Aren’t they very similar to Storm Shadow and Scalp in handling? Or does Taurus use SAP so that seventy-eleven German consultants come with each firing unit?
Otherwise, one can’t help but wonder if there’s something fishy going on with Taurus. A secret that only the sitting president gets to know. Like that they don’t work. That would explain why they don’t produce more even though there’s a shortage of industrial jobs in Germany.
Unfortunately, I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer that, but I have been thinking along the same lines.
They might be afraid of appearing completely worthless.
I don’t think they are needed anymore
Japan unfortunately folds. A plus point for Trump’s negotiation tactics.
“Reuters: Tokyo is considering buying US defense products as part of a package in trade talks with the US to avoid a 24% tariff. The package also includes cooperation in shipbuilding, a review of inspection standards for imported cars and purchases of US agricultural products.”
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3lqc7vqmbs22x
Doesn’t go chaos-bad for the USA after all this but saw a graph that the risk is on the rise for their government bonds.
“A fire broke out overnight in St. Petersburg, Russia, at the 🇷🇺Avangard plant, which specializes in the production of microelectronics. This plant has the status of a strategically important enterprise in Russia and produces products for the defense-industrial complex.”
✊✊💥
“✅ Karma found him ❌ -1 CRIMINAL 🔥Major Zaur Gurtsiev, who led the bombing of Mariupol, was blown up in Russia. Those strikes destroyed the Drama Theater and killed thousands of civilians, – Russian media.”
Mossad-style 👍
Excellent 👍
I have made a separate post if anyone is interested: Is Russia running out of tanks
Intressant 👍
Shot down but still delivering a bump (you hear if you turn up the volume).
“Moscow region 👀💥”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqcdu2csuk2x
“A HIMARS strike wiped out a Russian military facility in Korenevo, Kursk region — initially claimed as a hospital. The site was a permanent base for Russian troops involved in attacks on Sumy region.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lqce52xl222k
The court decision that stops Donald Trump’s tariffs is a severe blow to the entire president’s economic policy, write David Goldman and Matt Egan at CNN in an analysis.
Trump’s economic agenda rests like a stool on three legs: tariffs, cuts in the state apparatus, and tax cuts.
The revenues from the tariffs help cover some of the costs of the Republicans’ new comprehensive tax package, which has been criticized for worsening the already growing US national debt. Without any tariffs, the stool, and the entire Trump plan, risks collapsing, Goldman and Egan conclude.
Your daily reminder that Russia is a terrorist state. 🤬
“Russian terrorists dropped five glide bombs on private homes in the Polohy district of the Zaporizhzhia region. The airstrikes destroyed and damaged residential buildings. People are trapped under the rubble. Apparently, this is what Peskov considers military targets.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lqcfjj5u5c2e
“Give them a few weeks” Best regards, Trump
First it was 24 hours, then it became 100 days and now it gets postponed every time Russia pretends to consider negotiating…
Taco Trump 🤣🤣🤣
Trump doesn’t appreciate it! 😂
“Donald Trump’s tariff pauses have led to the spread of the term ”taco” (”Trump always chickens out”) in the market. When CNBC asks him about what he thinks of the acronym, Trump denies ever having backed down in the tariff war, the president points to his 50 percent tariff threat against the EU.
– After I did what I did, they said: ”We’ll meet whenever you want”, he says and continues:
– Do you call it chickening out? I call it negotiating.”
https://omni.se/trump-slar-tillbaka-mot-taco-kallas-att-forhandla/a/o3ORWB
I don’t like this trend reversal –
High intensity, daily terrain losses for UA and declining RU losses
Agree, it doesn’t feel quite right. Most logical explanations one can think of end with unfortunately not looking quite good for Ukraine.
And pair that with Putin not being interested in a ceasefire.
And Trump just waits to give him even more time.
It’s probably not good, every piece of lost land becomes difficult to retake.
One can hope for a strong offensive from the Ukrainian side this summer, there should be weapons and manpower available, but if it doesn’t happen, there is probably a risk of a Ukrainian loss, or a “Deterrence victory” here.
One can hope that they are at the starting line, just waiting for pressure on Russia from the USA and EU at the same time as the offensive begins.
Don’t miss the tribute choir to MXT in today’s second post about tanks.
Now you were mean! 🤣
Sorry, now a couple of comments had been posted, it felt quite lonely in that post otherwise. 😂
It was an attempt to highlight that you wrote a good post and that they would read it 😀
👍
What a clown he is Peskov!
“Russia is still waiting for a response from Ukraine regarding the proposal to hold the next round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2. This was stated by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, as reported by Reuters.
Ukraine has stated that they want to see Russia’s “peace memorandum,” which the country promised to send after the last meeting, before the next round of talks. Peskov refers to this demand as “non-constructive.””
https://omni.se/ryssland-vi-vantar-pa-svar-fran-ukraina-om-samtal/a/qP4L4L
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomes the decision to halt the majority of Donald Trump’s global tariffs, as noted by international media. “China has clarified its position many times. There are no winners in a tariff or trade war,” said spokesperson Mao Ning at a press conference when asked how the ruling could affect negotiations with the USA, according to AFP.
Going well now for Donald – China and the courts in the USA have allied themselves
He is testing the laws to find loopholes. His friend in the Kremlin has succeeded well, and he believes it will be just as easy in the USA.
Mavic they can probably do without, but if China stops exporting all other components needed, it would be a huge setback. Then Ukraine will have difficulty producing the quantity required…
“🇨🇳❗️🇺🇦 Zelensky: China has stopped selling Mavic drones to Ukraine and other European countries, but continues to deliver to Russia.
There are also production lines in Russia, with Chinese representatives. And when someone asks if China is helping Russia, how should we evaluate these steps?”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqcobr5fw22r
She didn’t mention Ukraine or Russia once in her speech, but she did mention Israel and Gaza.
Shame on you, Magdalena!
“Magdalena Andersson has been elected as the leader of the Social Democrats at the party’s congress in Gothenburg. – Thank you for your mandate, with that behind me, I seek a mandate to become Sweden’s prime minister, she says according to TT.”
https://omni.se/a/jQeBPn
Link to the speech if anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/sgLGqWHegyA?si=ePPmZNbbruSE56Rv
Yes, China has significantly advanced its positions.
Tesla cars with swastikas in all their glory, but Volvo with hammer and sickle? A Polestar in tar?
😃
Oops, that was probably a statement showing where China stands, and it’s not on our side.
Time to be more careful with boycotting China where possible.
Recently bought an electric car, it became an ID4, if Polestar hadn’t been Chinese it would have been an alternative
She didn’t mention Ukraine or Russia once in her speech, but she did mention Israel and Gaza.
Shame on you, Magdalena!
“Magdalena Andersson has been elected as the leader of the Social Democrats at the party’s congress in Gothenburg. – Thank you for your mandate, with that behind me I seek a mandate to become Sweden’s Prime Minister, she says according to TT.”
https://omni.se/a/jQeBPn
Link to the speech if anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/sgLGqWHegyA?si=ePPmZNbbruSE56Rv
I think that speech was a bit worrying.
We’ll see what they agree on for the party program/election manifesto after the congress – I will scrutinize that closely!
Offensives are extremely costly in terms of both personnel and equipment. For both Ukraine and Russia. Russia is therefore the only party going on the offensive with meat grinders, as it considers itself more able than Ukraine to sacrifice personnel. @Tatarigami (X) warns, however, of demographic consequences. And what we may be seeing with reduced personnel losses is Russia attempting to counter with smaller and smaller attack groups. Tried to find if Tararigami hinted at something in that direction but haven’t found anything yet. Does not in itself explain territorial gains, but perhaps together with indirect support (artillery, air support, drones) that has been developed and deployed in large quantities, maybe the smaller group can still avoid losses and gain ground.
@Tatarigami (X):
Right now, offensive operations are extremely costly. Whether you’re Ukrainian or Russian, every meter of land gained comes at a high price in casualties. Typical combat situations, such as recent incursions or Ukrainian attempts to retake even small areas, often end with heavy losses. These losses, both in personnel and equipment, are becoming increasingly difficult to replenish.
Russia, for its part, is advancing slowly but steadily. However, neither the pace nor the resources being spent make the gains particularly worthwhile. For instance, Russia may have the capability to take over towns like Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, and potentially push toward the Kramatorsk–Slovyansk agglomeration. Yet the time, manpower, and equipment required to achieve that don’t justify the limited strategic value of such advances. Unless somebody seriously thinks that Russia started a full-scale war to take over provincial town in Donetsk oblast 3 years later.
In theory, Russia could try to outlast Ukraine through sheer resource superiority. However, doing so would lead to severe long-term demographic and economic consequences that would undermine any political or strategic rationale. So, even if Russia eventually captures places like Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, it won’t be that difference on strategic level.
In the end, both sides may claim some form of victory: Russia, by pointing to territorial gains; and Ukraine, by claiming its success in preventing Russia from achieving its stated strategic objectives objectives set by Putin despite commanding one of the world’s largest militaries and inheriting the biggest stockpile of Soviet-era equipment and ammunition.
I hope that it is precisely to avoid losses that Ukraine is allowing the Russians to slowly gain ground.
If so, that is probably the right way to go, partly to wait and see what Trump actually comes up with, but since there is a high risk that the USA will withdraw, they may also need to wait for Europe’s arms production so they know they have secure deliveries in the future.
If they use up everything they have now to stop Russia, it would be devastating if they were to run out and there is very little left to get.
Another response in the post by @j1mmyjamjam addressing the sacrifice of territory (“territory is expendable”) but for a different reason: It’s not about avoiding own (Ukrainian) losses, but about maximizing Russian losses:
“The unmanned hellscape doesn’t rely on men. It relies on mines, drones and territory to cross – all of which Ukraine has in abundance.
In that strat, territory is expendable. It is ceded to create more hellscape. As the UAF retreats, Red must cross it.
This is happening rn, imo.“
And there are examples in world history where territory has been sacrificed, continued to be sacrificed, and just kept going that way and eventually the invading party has run out of strength and collapsed. David D @secretsquirrel gave an example of this in a space last winter. Attrition warfare.
There is no direct translation of “förseningstrid” but it can be a variant of ‘attritional warfare’. Throughout history, the French have encountered attritional warfare when invading Russia and when they were defeated in the Battle of Verdun during the First World War.
If it worked on the French, it should also work against the Russians.
The French invasion of Russia in 1812 is often cited as a textbook example of attrition warfare. The Russian army avoided direct, decisive engagements and instead disrupted Napoleon’s military logistics, drew his forces deeper into hostile territory, and used the environment to erode the strength of the Grande Armée. Ultimately, Russia secured victory not through a single conclusive battle, but by systematically degrading the invading force over time.
One of the most compelling visual representations of this strategy is the famous chart by Charles Joseph Minard, which graphically depicts the catastrophic decline in French troop numbers during the campaign.
Interesting! Sounds like something the Russians succeeded well with, one can guess that even the Ukrainian military is well-informed and understands how to proceed.
It would be nice if it ends with the Russians getting caught for what they once succeeded well with themselves.
At the same time, Russian losses have decreased recently, maybe the answer lies in a combination?
Previously, the main focus was to maximize Russian losses, now with the huge amounts of drones being used, perhaps it has become more difficult to do so without incurring high losses oneself, without being forced to retreat to a greater extent?
Have fortifications not been adapted for drone warfare? We are talking about prepared lines made with machinery and the possibility to build pure bunkers exists, right? If so, it should not be about retreating to protect own troops. I guess it’s about timing the retreat for when the meat wave comes so close that it becomes unmanageable.
I don’t think there is a possibility to net in all firing positions, and if one is to be able to stick their head out to shoot at advancing (or sneaking) Russians, they are also easily a target for drones at the same time.
But as you are suggesting, one probably waits as long as possible without exposing oneself to too great a risk.
You are on the right track in one thing 205 – RU has felt the losses so they are now attacking in smaller groups.
Observation drones are logging UA firing positions and they have sorted out their version of “Uber for artillery”.
FAB is targeted with a terrible effect.
Then they, just like UA, lay a cover for FPV drones 30-40km behind the front line so that no one can move in the area in question.
And then they keep grinding.
Now this is exactly how Ukraine has been working, minus FAB, so they have simply learned from the masters.
I read something about Russia supposedly having drone superiority right now. If true, it could be decisive.
“💥🤩 Minus Russian self-propelled howitzer 2S1 “Gvozdika”. The work was carried out by the 38th Marine Brigade.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqctxwqrk22h
“❗️🇷🇺Russia continues to advance in the 🇺🇦Sumy region: it has advanced near Novosilka, Vodolagi, Lokna and Bilovody, – data from the DeepState service.”
🤔
“Zelensky on Taurus: There are some topics that Merz and I agree not to discuss publicly #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lqcsyvlxxs2u
“🇺🇦🔝 Ukraine has used AI-based drones for the first time, — Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov.
The drone delivers two FPV attack drones to a distance of up to 300 km. They can autonomously find and hit targets: from enemy aircraft to air defense and critical infrastructure.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqcsmunmos2l
Hm – regarding the speculations about the upcoming Russian offensive. https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqcwxkes6k2h
Cheerful 😐
Yes, concerning.
I think Putler feels that it’s now or never, Trump is hesitating back and forth, and whether we like it or not, USA’s support is important.
Then after Russia has taken more ground, they start to talk about new peace negotiations, and Trump is up in the tree again.
Now Ukraine should send a drone cloud to England again.
Interesting – Abramovich is starting to move his (final) assets in the West to Russia. What’s the reason for this?
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/05/26/abramovich-nachal-perevodit-biznes-v-rossiyu-a164336
Aha – probably worried that the Russian state might be able to seize the assets if they are considered foreign? “This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that in January, the Russian government included Evraz NTMK in the list of economically significant organizations, which allows for the annulment of the corporate rights of foreign holding companies through the court. Vyacheslav Kosakov, managing partner of Novator Legal Group, notes that such a mechanism is an instrument of state intervention, while an independent claim allows to control the process, accelerate it, and maintain confidentiality.”
Ah, of course, trying to avoid sanctions.
The global arms race threatens the climate goals. Only the planned rearmament of NATO countries is expected to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 200 million tons per year, according to a new study cited by The Guardian. “There is a real concern about how we prioritize short-term security and sacrifice long-term security,” says Ellie Kinney, a researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory and co-author of the study.
Is it better if the Russians take over?
They don’t seem to care at all about the environment.
“– There is a real concern about how we prioritize short-term security and sacrifice long-term security, says Ellie Kinney.” Yeah right, tell that to the Ukrainians…
You get tired 😐
They are right in substance, but we have no greater benefit from a healthy planet if we are being tortured and murdered by the Russians, which is a more imminent threat in terms of time.
Moreover, it is actually possible to work towards solving both problems simultaneously.
I can’t be bothered to read that sh1t, but did they write anything about Russia’s and China’s rearmament?
Russia emits 1780 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year, so if we eliminate them, it would be a significant climate gain. China emits 11900 tons per year, so NATO’s rearmament accounts for 1.7% of China’s emissions.
Hehehe….”WELT reports details of the new German aid package. Germany will fund Ukrainian drones capable of reaching Moscow.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lqcujfdwgc2e
Progress (if it really happens)!
“Israel accepts the latest US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, says Netanyahu according to Reuters. The proposal entails that Hamas releases ten live hostages and 18 bodies in two stages over a week’s time. In return, Israel is to withdraw from recently captured areas in Gaza and release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.”
https://omni.se/a/zAKgkq
Just as the residents of Gaza began to turn against Hamas, Trump also pulled the rug out from under them 😐
They have stormed several of Hamas’ food councils because Hamas has been too weak to protect them.
If this had been allowed to play out, maybe it would have been resolved automatically.
It’s probably complicated, I think that if Netanyahu were to continue his total war against Hamas, the current Hamas might be decimated. A large part of the population would die, but some would manage to escape, and would from a distance witness how Israel would destroy everything they know.
Even though they know that Hamas has been a parasite in the Palestinian society, their anger would probably be directed towards those who bomb their homes and families to pieces.
An extermination and expulsion of Gaza’s population would destroy Israel’s reputation in large parts of the world for a long time to come.
A strange thing in this conflict is that Israel is always expected to release many tens of times more prisoners for a few hostages, although it is more important to get out a couple of living civilians than to keep many Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Gaza is also like a prison, but with a greater risk of death.
Interesting! Which countries are the driving force behind it? Saudi Arabia usually tries to keep the price per barrel up, right?
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqcu7iu5kk2h
It is Saudi Arabia that is driving. It is partly a punishment against the OPEC countries that have exceeded the agreed quotas, and partly because Saudi Arabia has budget problems and needs to sell more oil.
A low oil price benefits the sales for countries with low production costs, such as Saudi Arabia.
Low energy prices also benefit Europe whose industry is sensitive to high energy costs. And it is detrimental to American oil producers (but not American industry in general which has cheap gas just like Germany did).
True, a low oil price lubricates the world economy, which several oil-producing countries benefit from, such as the USA. Trump’s supporters are most interested in what flows into the bank account, and as long as the money keeps coming in, he has more leeway for ideological issues.
We probably shouldn’t overlook that Trump has a significantly better relationship with MBS than Biden did.
Aha – thank you for the explanation!
Four hours left of the day of sobriety, who came up with this idea ☹
Tomorrow we go hard with Friday drinking 🍾🤩
✊👍
Event 😶
I’m having a Thursday party 🥳 for the sake of sobriety.
“Fantastisk förstörelse av ryska “Grad” med en full ammunitionspaket i Kurskregionen av “Birds of Magyar”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqdbw7n5hs25“
“Ryssarna konverterade Dan-M jetdrivna lockbetet som användes för luftförsvarsövningar och tester till en attackdrönare. Drönaren sköts upp från ockuperade Krim för att attackera Ukraina för första gången.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3lqddxiqtes2r
In 3 days, we’ve fundraised almost 3 #SkySentinel air defense turrets to protect Ukraine from russian drones and missiles.
Thanks to you❤️
Let’s get keep this thing going💪
More turrets, less deadly drones, less looming horror, less victims:
https://u24.gov.ua/sky-sentinel?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=fundraising&utm_campaign=sky-sentinel
https://bsky.app/profile/u24.gov.ua/post/3lqdg42flbk2x
150,000 USD per station – our European counterparts cost millions each
Bought myself. Can be my best investment ever.
Thank you for the tip! Love to spend money on stuff like this – that’s why you work more than what’s needed for rent and food!
Russia pays Iranian companies in gold bars…. (Google translate) – “Russia delivered at least 1.8 tons of gold bars worth about $104 million to the Iranian company Sahara Thunder as payment for the Shahed-136 drones it assembled in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan. This follows from a contract between the parties, as obtained by the research group C4ADS in Washington.”
https://x.com/agents_media/status/1928158286353752088
Great that they are supporting each other at least 👍
Gold is taking over more and more of the dollar in these cases. After all, no one wants to be paid in Rubles, RMB, Rupees, etc., because what would one do with them? Perhaps now they are transporting the sheep in airplanes between rogue states, but soon enough it will be streamlined so that they are simply moved between two piles in a vault in Singapore.
This development probably won’t stop in the next five years at least, so we will likely see continued demand for gold, and thus higher gold prices. Other forces are moving in the same direction, such as the weakening of the dollar.
Let’s hope that the Central Bank of Russia empties its gold reserves to buy weapons just in time for an economic reset where currencies are valued based on the size of their gold reserves 🙂
Flightradar24, a manpad and a great view from some hill in Azerbaijan 🚀✈💣🤑
This was not very fun if it’s true – Khotin is quite far into the UA side
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3998572-active-combat-ongoing-near-khotin-yunakivka-in-sumy-region-rma.html
Frightful. Can we at least bomb them with termites? 🔥