Today there will be an overview of the fronts, which unfortunately is not very cheerful reading at all.
Yes, Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve, but if they go for another spring offensive in 2023, the war is probably over. The offensive can only achieve tactical victory on the battlefield, so it must be combined with other elements in the asymmetric warfare that reinforce the effect. Above all, it is the end of October and we haven’t seen it yet, but preparations for the Azov thrust are in full swing.
There are helicopters and amphibious combat vehicles along with night fighting equipment and mine clearers, so it’s easy to see that Ukraine has some clever plans.
Ukraine has received a huge amount of heavy vehicles delivered in the past six months, and surely many other things as well, but nothing is being flaunted anymore.
The cleansing of Dobrophilia has been going on for at least a month, so it’s not a direct Kharkiv offensive – they are wearing each other down, and eventually a few hundred of those who have survived will surrender.
Russia is grinding on in Ukraine with its inferior equipment and has set aside a strategic offensive reserve equipped with the latest they have manufactured, some of which has been smuggled in east of the Baltics.
Russia is currently fighting against perhaps the most effective defense force in the world in Ukraine, and they are advancing. UA has +1 million in the defense forces and as much artillery, robots, and armored vehicles as all of Europe combined – and a drone weapon and digital battlefield that Europe doesn’t have at all.
What you see at the fronts is adapted to the warfare of 2025, which only Ukraine, Russia, and China master today.
There is a thin line of infantry in defense and a thin line of infantry attacking, and then there is the digital battlefield glued to the screens to find the gaps and place an FAB in them.
When RU thinks they can achieve a breakthrough, they now attack with mechanized units, and when UA must, they counterattack with mechs – both sides lose a lot of equipment in these battles.
Russia can continue like this over time, everyone with insight says so; they are not in dire straits economically, they are not dry yet, and they have enough equipment and soldiers to continue as they are now.
The wild card is if the opposition gets a feeling or if someone manages to incite the masses in Russia – Ukraine is trying both, and it feels hopeful when the youth in St. Petersburg have started protesting against the war.
Putin probably glanced nervously towards Nepal the other month.
RU tactics are working, aren’t they?
Army chiefs are achieving attack goals that are embarrassingly low, but the war rolls on Russian style – drones and robots continue to come off the production lines, and indirect efforts are increasing.
Ukraine is also shooting down fewer and fewer robots and drones now, but the wheel keeps turning, and soon autonomous AI interceptor drones will be a reality on the LV screen.
What happens when AI interceptor drones are at the fronts – will we then revert to traditional warfare because the drone weapon has been completely neutralized?
Then you might remember my discussion about the main defense line that goes beyond what Putin wants to conquer, and that Ukraine has been pragmatic – of course, this is the line UA is slowly retreating to.
But then what?
I think it’s time to call a spade a spade – Russia couldn’t handle its digital battlefield at all as recently as 2024, and now it’s working perfectly. We saw a HIMARS hit by a heavy robot a month ago, for example – not many minutes between target detection and engagement.
China’s digital battlefield has eliminated the advantage Ukraine had that could have won the war for them if Trump hadn’t insisted on peace since the fall of 2024, and Biden hadn’t thrown a spanner in the works – it’s China that has built and is now manning this, China is driving the digital battlefield and an effective kill chain for Russia.
China has also built up Russia’s drone and robot production and continuously improves both robots and drones for Russia.
Most recently, Ukraine shot down 6% of the newer robots, which now have countermeasures.
Same with the drones, Geran 3 is tricky.
China has provided autonomous AI drones at the fronts that are easy for the Russians to handle.
This is the reason Ukraine is retreating – China has nullified their advantage as a potential war winner and given the Russians that advantage instead.
Kupiansk is looking worse and worse, and the bulge east of Oskil is on the verge of falling. The situation in the city is absolutely horrific, and RU is infiltrating their sabotage groups in civilian clothes WITHOUT weapons so UA won’t dare to fight them, and then they pick up arms once inside the city. The defense is 360 defense 24/7 and extremely taxing, if I had to guess.
At Lyman, RU is advancing, and the same there, it will fall quite soon within months.
This makes the area in the “middle” in northern Luhansk unsustainable over time.
At Siversk, RU is soon within grenade throwing distance to Slovyansk, so there will also be movement there.
In the area northwest of Kupiansk, there is also some movement, it has long been believed that the area would fall.
At Kostianytivka, RU is approaching and sniffing around the city with the first sabotage groups inside the city. It was supposed to have a ring of very well-prepared defenses and be practically impregnable.
In Pokrovsk, RU is in the center and attacking Myrnohrad. Gregg has been quiet, and he used to always talk about the battalion there that was okay.
We wrote a few weeks ago that the delaying battle out of the city had started, and I think it still holds?
At Pokrovske, RU is also advancing.
Not to mention Stepnohirsk, where they have now come behind the southern front – how the hell they managed to cross those terrain obstacles with experienced Ukrainian elite forces in the area is something for historians to figure out, because I don’t understand it.
Risking Ukraine’s collapse is suicidal because then we will have the war on us without Ukraine’s help.
So, Ukraine is fighting against China and Russia – the stories from the frontlines are absolutely dreadful, and the counterattacks with Azov and 12th NG extinguishing fires are taking losses.
Russia has been targeting the power supply this fall, and their robots are hitting more accurately as China provides target data.
What do you think Europe’s game plan is – wait and see how it goes?
Trump’s nonsense about a ceasefire was just that because Russia does not want a ceasefire – they want to continue fighting.
One must not fixate on square meters because this is a “war of attrition” and right now UA is retreating everywhere, shooting down fewer and fewer robots and drones.
Pokrovsk, Stepnohirsk, Kostintanyivka, Siversk, and northern Luhansk are all small forts that have been defended, and there is defense behind them, but they need to be manned and mined, right now they are just holes.
RU is holding back its mech and UA is holding back its mech – upon breakthrough, they are thrown in directly.
As mentioned, the most crucial months of the war.
The USA seems to want to take on China but doesn’t care about Ukraine. If Europe doesn’t start making tough decisions soon, this could spiral out of control for us, and then Ukraine will have given us nearly 4 years to prepare.
In my previous post, you could read about all the actions we can take before full-blown war, and we are hardly taking any right now – it’s possible to significantly escalate tensions without risking interstate war, but we are really dragging our feet on this.
Then we have the next harsh truth – China has now provided Russia with top-class drone weapons, robot weapons, and digital battlefield, so if the damn Russians decide to come after us, we must have countermeasures against that.
We don’t have that today, and both Russia and China have gained experiences from this war that we are lagging behind in. Their production lines of functional weapons are running at full capacity, and they have work experience.
Now, WV had to halt car production because they don’t have any microchips, when do you think military production will start facing issues for us?
The war is slowly heading towards us, and if we are poorly prepared, we are. And if we make the mistake of not believing that gangs have manpads at the airbases and Russia has a swarm of drones on ships around Europe, we will also be recipients of that.
I have said that by the summer of 2026, the door will be closed for Russia to attack into the Baltics based on the fact that by then we SHOULD be prepared – minefields, bunkers, brigades, and anti-drone weapons should be in place, so the threshold for attacking into the forests in eastern Baltics should be like Finland’s, roughly.
If we are not prepared, the timeline will be extended, and if Ukraine gets tired of the war, it becomes urgent – right now it doesn’t seem so, they are pushing on against the wind without flinching, as they have done for almost four years.
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Good morning!
Russian losses:
SLAVA UKRAINI
It’s been just over two years since Russia launched its offensive. This is what they have accomplished since then:
Russian losses between October 1, 2023, up to today, October 24, 2025:
+ 856,950 KWIA
+ 6,592 Tanks
+ 6,592 AFVs
+ 27,525 Artillery systems
+ 730 MLRS
+ 693 Air defense systems
+ 113 Aircraft
+ 113 Helicopters
+ 8 Warships
+ 5,502 Vehicles & fuel tanks
+ 3,049 Special equipment
“Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade repelled a Russian mechanized assault in Chasiv Yar. Russians lost one MT-LB, a BMP-1, two quad bikes, and three motorcycles during the failed attack.”
Ahead of today’s “Coalition of the Willing” meeting in London, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged allies to boost deliveries of long-range weapons to Ukraine before winter. London also backs a global ban on Russian oil and gas, using frozen assets to aid Ukraine, and ramping up military support.
Unfortunately, no frozen Russian billions were released during yesterday’s meeting. Belgium is backing out because they are afraid of facing damages and therefore want guarantees that EU countries promise to pay if it turns out that they have to pay back the money.
It is especially sad as Ukraine had planned to use some of the money to purchase Gripens.
“No concrete decisions were made regarding the frozen Russian assets during Thursday’s EU summit, several media outlets report.
Ukraine wants to take out loans with the equivalent of 2,000 billion kronor as collateral. EU countries had hoped to push the plan forward during the meeting and come up with concrete legal proposals on how to proceed.
The language in the final communication was significantly watered down, Euronews writes.
“The European Council asks the Commission to present proposals for financial support […] so that the Council can revisit the issue at the next meeting,” it says. The next summit will take place in December.
The main reason is Belgium, where the majority of the Russian assets are held at the financial institution Euroclear. The country is hesitant about the plan and fears damages, and has set a number of conditions to move forward.”
https://omni.se/inget-beslut-om-ryska-miljarder-under-eu-motet/a/25Rjdv
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had to return home from Brussels on Thursday evening without the Russian billions he came to secure. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever managed to steer the EU summit towards a watered-down statement where the frozen Russian state assets were barely mentioned.
“It’s a bit sad that we are being singled out as reluctant,” De Wever said after the meeting, according to Politico Europe.
The majority of the over 2,000 billion kronor seized is held in the Belgium-registered financial institution Euroclear. De Wever wants strong assurances that the country is protected if Russia were to have a legal claim on the assets.
“In that case, the money must be immediately available. The trust in Europe’s entire financial system is at stake,” De Wever said.
The Belgian leader was not convinced by the assurances he received during the meeting.
“I asked my colleagues who would guarantee this. It was not met with a tsunami of enthusiasm.”
https://omni.se/zelenskyj-lottlos-darfor-satte-sig-belgien-pa-tvaren/a/8q3O4G
One understands that it must be done correctly, according to the law, as we follow the laws in democratic countries. We can’t just take money if we can’t prove that it belongs to the Russian state, and therefore can be paid as war reparations to Ukraine through court decisions.
Like so much else in this war, our laws limit what we can do.
If it were to go so wrong that Russia were to win, Ukraine would likely face a Finnish scenario, where Russia would judge Ukraine to pay war reparations to them, which is as absurd now as it was in the 1940s, but a Russian is a Russian even if you boil him in oil.
“The number of injured has risen to 14 following a Russian MLRS strike on Kherson’s Korabelnyi district this morning, according to local authorities. Previously, Russians claimed to have ‘control’ over this area which was quickly refuted by local authorities and Ukrainian forces.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3wdm3zu5s2o
120 combat clashes
184 KAB
“🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down or suppressed 72/128 Russian drones!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m3wf276xn22o
The total has made several dips lately, and has a lower bottom even though the height may also look normal, but signs that the offense is stuttering.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0↘️
S Slobozhansky 11💥↗️
Kupyansk 4
Lyman 9💥↗️
Slovyansk 14↗️
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 12💥
Pokrovsk 39💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 14💥↘️
Huliaypillia 0↘️
Orikhivsk 3
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3
Thank you! Interesting with a greater difference between peaks and valleys (missed your reports!).
Good to see that they are taking it back step by step.
I believe you have misinterpreted the color of DeepState because the green is not a disputed area but the terrain Ukraine regained in the Kupyansk offensive 2022. It is the gray color that designates the disputed area, so when you measure the distance from the front line to Sloviansk, the distance is 27 km, not directly grenade-throwing distance:
Johan No.1 is really good at throwing grenades, he didn’t think about the Russians not reaching his level of skill.. 😄
Ouch, yes! I should have figured out that the naval commander in direct descent is related to Karl Alfred! 💪
Exactly, that’s why Johan’s real name is actually Karl-Johan where Karl of course is a tribute to the spinach lover.
They have great similarities, the difference is that Johan gets his powers from a combination of Mariestad, barbecue chips, and ranch dip.
SOON tree-throwing distance it would probably have stood maybe.
in your map you have the gray wedge towards Lyman which was probably the one I meant.
That it’s moving there too.
Off-Topic, AI for criminal use
Perhaps this is where the great risk of AI lies? It becomes incredibly easier to carry out credible frauds (with a self-learning AI that improves itself) and to do it on a massive scale.
“Criminals are increasingly using AI, and the number of investment and ‘romance scams’ is soaring to record levels in the UK. This is reported by the Financial Times.
In total, criminals have stolen 629 million pounds, equivalent to 8 billion kronor, during the first half of the year – an increase of 3 percent from the same period last year.
Thieves largely use the same proven methods, but AI makes it possible to increase the scale and speed of the scams.”
https://omni.se/ai-lyfter-bedragerierna-till-rekordnivaer/a/Gyz6bm
Off-Topic, Chips Tax
Go ahead, not a big fan of chips anyway, but leave my chili nuts alone!
“Researchers: Increased tax on chips could save 700 lives each year
Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg have concluded in a new study that removing tax on healthy food – and increasing tax on unhealthy products – would save 700 Swedes from premature death each year, reports SVT Väst.
The idea is called “food tax shift” and according to the study, it is much better for both the environment and public health than the government’s general reduction of food tax. The proposals from the opposition parties may even worsen public health, says Jörgen Larsson, one of the researchers behind the study.
– Our results show that price sensitivity is high for products like soda and low for vegetables. This means that the consumption of soda will increase significantly with a halving of the tax, while the consumption of vegetables will only increase to a lesser extent.”
https://omni.se/forskare-hojd-chipsmoms-kan-radda-700-liv-varje-ar/a/pPJ9nj
I think one should damn well stop telling the Swede what he should eat and drink.
General reductions, preferably in taxes, are good.
They are sick. The wife was in Portugal for 1 week without Swedish news like this. She could ascertain that she became happier and more positive in general.
I think we should take it one step further, abolish tax on snuff, cigarettes, and alcohol, we don’t need to care about public health!
👍
Yes, that would be something, then natural selection would eliminate those who can’t stay on the narrow path. It could also mean no longer treating the diseases that come from an unhealthy lifestyle.
Sometimes you have to be lucky!
There was neither penetration nor explosion.
“That’s one hell of a steel butt russians published a video showing an FPV strike on Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian serviceman was extremely lucky cause the drone hit him right in the butt, but didn’t explode. The warhead and the fiber-optic cable separated from the drone.”
https://bsky.app/profile/saintjavelin.bsky.social/post/3m3wjcrcnok27
Off-Topic, Trump – Canada
Trump got upset about a video that Canada had spread, which is likely AI fake, but whose message is still completely correct. Reagan was against tariffs and other trade barriers but apparently facts don’t seem to matter that much.
“Donald Trump announces that all trade talks with Canada are immediately suspended.
In a post on Truth Social, the American president claims that Canada has promoted a fake commercial where Ronald Reagan speaks negatively about tariffs.
“Tariffs are crucial for the national security and economy of the USA. Due to Canada’s rough behavior, all trade negotiations with the country are hereby terminated,” writes Trump.” https://omni.se/trump-rasar-mot-kanada-alla-samtal-avslutas-nu/a/xm15oB
He has traveled extensively to Canada throughout 2025
Yes, he thought he was making a good offer when he wanted to make them the 52nd state, but when Canada refused and mocked him for it, he got sour.
The advantage for us is that Canada wants to get closer to Europe, maybe it will end positively after all for everyone except the USA?
He has behaved badly towards both Canada and Denmark ever since he took office. Despite everything, Denmark chose to order more F35. A difficult situation for the Danes, however. But personally, I don’t think Canada will choose more F35. It will probably be Gripen, and Trump probably knows about it.
Yes, I agree, lucky that he has stopped nagging about Greenland at least. Maybe he simply forgot about it.
I think it will probably come up again, that may be the case with old people, that even if they sometimes don’t remember what they said a few days ago, they never forget an injustice, real or imagined.
Canada has responded to the criticism
“A commercial with Ronald Reagan has caused the latest stir in the relationship between the USA and Canada. Last night, Donald Trump announced that he is suspending trade talks and called the commercial “fake”.
In the film, funded by the province of Ontario, quotes from Reagan taken from a radio speech in 1987 are used.
High tariffs inevitably lead to countermeasures from other countries, triggering wild trade wars, says the president.
Ontario’s initiative has been condemned by the Ronald Reagan Foundation, claiming that the words are taken out of context. Something that Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford denies.
“In the ad, an unedited quote from one of Ronald Reagan’s speeches is used, which is also public domain,” one of his spokespersons told CBC News.”
https://omni.se/trump-far-kritik-reagans-citat-ar-helt-oredigerade/a/XjxzGo
Trump “can’t handle the truth”
Off-Topic, USA and China’s trade war
As I suspected, it won’t be easy to crack China.
I don’t have much regard for the USA under Trump, but it would be bad if China emerges victorious from the conflict. If anyone wins at all, it’s probably more a question of who loses the least, while other countries are also affected when they get involved.
The USA wants to put pressure on other countries to act against China, I haven’t seen anything about China doing the same, but they have probably done so.
“Despite Donald Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and export controls, China has proven to be more resilient than the USA, writes The Economist ahead of the summit between the countries in South Korea next week.
The newspaper declares China the winner of the trade war. “China has learned to escalate and retaliate as effectively as the USA,” the newspaper writes. At the same time, they are experimenting with “extraterritorial trade rules and thus changing the world economy.”
Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and editor-in-chief of China and the World, is skeptical about the meeting.
“The structural competition between a rising power and a dominant power means that tensions will always exist in the relationship between the USA and China,” he writes for The Hill.”
https://omni.se/analyser-kina-vinner-handelskriget-mot-usa/a/jQ8wgL
China is 10 times worse for us than Trump.
Their housing bubble is astronomical and if Trump can burst it, China will crash.
I think that’s what he/they have tried but so far it hasn’t worked
But has their real estate bubble already burst? Wasn’t that one of the main reasons why foreign investors withdrew from China and lost confidence when they lost huge amounts?
It hisses slowly – if it explodes into a cloud of smoke, chaos will ensue.
Cannot (purely trade-wise) say that China is worse than the USA. The USA buys a lot from us, which is good, while China sells cheaply to us, which is also good.
The problem is that in the long run, China will become a huge issue as they become increasingly dominant in the market.
If we disregard trade and look at China as a whole, we should regardless stay away from them.
They are a dictatorship regime that oppresses and monitors its population, they support Russia and try to gain economic advantage over the countries they “help”. They spy on both their own and the rest of the world, etc. etc.
Even if their trade with us is (or has been) okay, we should consider them our enemy.
When China sells cheaply to us, it affects our own producers – not good.
China is already dominant in the market, they have managed to crack the German car industry.
The alternative would be to buy expensively from ourselves. That doesn’t work particularly well either.
It is rather us who exploit low-paid workers around the world. It may not be fair, but it benefits us economically.
The problem is that we must continue to stay at the forefront and drive technological development. It is now when China begins to outsmart us even there that it leads to problems. We must both stimulate research and development and prevent it from being sold to the USA and China if we are not to fall far behind in the long run. It’s not just about technology, of course, there are other areas.
Trying to bring back the production of cheap products and trying to compete will not work. We cannot produce as cheaply as China, and if we are to buy our own products at a significantly higher price, we will only drive up inflation and decrease our purchasing power. At the same time, we are still in trouble when it comes to being able to export.
Buying expensive from ourselves worked quite well for a long time, we didn’t buy as much because it was more expensive, and what we bought lasted longer.
It was the pursuit of cheap production that led us into the arms of China, and we with our ego, didn’t think that the Chinese would be so smart that they would outsmart us. But with the help of reverse engineering of our products, we got a quick lesson in product development, and then it took off.
Here we are now, and with a dictator in power in China, there is a great risk that they will soon go in for empire building, as they feel they have the economic and military power.
It worked as long as there were no significantly cheaper alternatives.
Then we have allowed ourselves to be tricked into believing that everything becomes outdated and should be replaced regardless of whether it works or not, we have the marketers to thank for that, but also blame ourselves for falling for it.
That is not true – that it is not possible to bring production back home and make it profitable (compete). The reason is automation. The cost of energy and raw materials determines the margin, not labor costs. And these costs can largely be global. Secondly, you have no chance to be at the forefront of product development if you do not have production. A large part of the development potential lies in this, and thus competitiveness and profitability – compare TetraPak.
Sure, it can work and there are always exceptions, but I think the race is run when it comes to the vast majority of standard products where China (and others) today maintain sufficient high quality and a low price.
Even if you automate, it still requires a lot of people so wage costs matter. But of course, it also depends on the margins you have and how unique and in demand the product is.
If we manage with maximum automation, it doesn’t create many jobs. The company and its owners, of course, make money, but if it leads to increased unemployment, we still have a problem.
However, I still believe the future lies in new products and product development, and if they are unique products, certainly also in production (and production development) of course.
But also product design and brands, etc.
The war in Ukraine has truly pushed the development of armored vehicles to new heights! 😄
“An M113 ‘Hedgehog’ APC of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was spotted through the lens of a Russian drone in Donetsk region.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3wkqbke4c2o
Stylish vehicle 👍
Smart
Looks like a hazelnut on a hill.
🙏 Kherson today. Combined MLRS and drone strikes. There are casualties.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m3wklj7sr22c
“Death toll from Kherson shelling grows to 3, with another 14 people injured, incl children”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3m3wkkeeh4c2n
I have extremely hard time believing that it would have been the target. This will surely be used by Russian propaganda.
“A residential area in a suburb of Moscow was today subjected to an unusual Ukrainian drone attack, writes AFP. A drone hit the 14th floor of a residential building in Krasnogorsk on the western outskirts of the Russian capital.
Five people are reported to have been injured. Local resident Maxim told the news agency that the loud bang sounded “almost exactly” like a car crash.
Russia has recently carried out intensive bombings against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of winter, leading to retaliatory attacks. However, Moscow and its surroundings are rarely targeted by Ukrainian attacks.”
https://omni.se/ukrainsk-dronarattack-mot-14-e-vaningen-i-moskvaforort/a/Gyz6V9
Several countries besides Sweden can support a Ukrainian purchase of the Jas Gripen, believes Saab’s CEO Micael Johansson. He mentions frozen Russian assets, Swedish support packages, and risk-sharing between countries as possible financing routes.
– I absolutely see a possibility for countries to support such an arrangement, he says about the memorandum of understanding between Sweden and Ukraine regarding the purchase of as many as 100-150 Gripen planes, which was presented in Linköping last Wednesday.
Johansson emphasizes that Ukraine needs a strong air defense where combat aircraft, anti-drone systems, and surveillance systems complement each other.
Russia is trying to give a false impression of the military advances in Kherson in Ukraine, according to the think tank ISW.
For example, Russia has not succeeded in crossing the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine. Nevertheless, messages from Russian actors are spreading that the country’s forces have crossed the river and “established a bridgehead” on the western bank.
According to ISW, there is no evidence to support this. Ukrainian forces have, for example, published video clips that have been geolocated by ISW, showing them moving freely in the area without any signs of Russian soldiers.
What is portrayed as an advance seems to actually be a limited sabotage or reconnaissance operation that has been exaggerated. The purpose is said to be partly to convince Russians that the war is going in the right direction and partly to make Ukraine and Western allies believe that resistance is futile.
“🇮🇳 India’s Reliance Increases Purchases of Middle Eastern Oil Following US Sanctions on Russia, – Bloomberg Indian Reliance Industries purchased at least 10 million barrels of oil on the spot market, primarily Middle Eastern grades, following the imposition of US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m3wmk365us2c
“Rekrytering: En ny dimension av de ukrainska väpnade styrkorna. Kommer det att hjälpa?
Ukraina skapar officiellt rekryteringscenter medan mobiliseringsgraden sjunker och antalet obehöriga frånvaron från militära enheter ökar.”
“RU can continue like this over time, that’s what everyone in the know says, they are not economically on the brink…” Well, it depends on how one defines being on the brink, but what one reads about the Russian economy is not exactly good news, right?
Ukraine’s economy is well worse and they are at war?
China has provided Russia with 75,000 tons of war material.
and the EU is still buying Russian LNG and oil.
Yes, if the EU and China stopped supporting Russia militarily and economically, the war might end but by autumn 2025 we won’t do that.
Europe continues to sell all the equipment RU needs to the war industry via various -places.
Most recently, it was probably Budsnov who said that Russia can go to war and Ukraine may well be considered to have some control since it is in their interest?
I agree with you, their economy is on a downward slope.
However, it is difficult to assess how long they can hold out. How hard dare Putin press the population and is there a risk that the elite in Russia will get tired?
Unfortunately, China is backing them, they do not want to see Russia lose big, risking the country collapsing and it would look bad for China regardless. If they let Russia, one of their closest allies, lose when they could have helped them, how much can one then trust China?
China’s help surely costs Russia a lot, China probably does nothing for free.
How long is China willing to help them, and could the trade war with the USA perhaps lead to reduced support?
Many uncertain factors. Russia could collapse at any time, but it could also take a decade or two. Personally, I give them 2-3 years.
One easily thinks that oh what little progress they have made, and at what high cost in human lives, they will soon start to retreat, as it is unsustainable to sustain such manpower losses.
Unfortunately, it is Russia we are talking about, and their population is so subdued, and has a mentality that allows them to run over the cliff like a lemming for quite a while. Most soldiers are recruited from rural areas, and come from poor conditions, so for them it doesn’t matter much if the country goes bankrupt. Putin will probably make sure that the people in the big cities are kept out for as long as possible. It is in the cities that revolutions usually start, so as long as they are satisfied, everything is fine.
Furthermore, they have a leader who, besides being a psychopath, also keeps himself far away from both the front line and reality. For Putin, the loss of soldiers is just a number, just like it was for Stalin. Putin sits in the middle of the web, from where he governs through his cronies who have obtained their positions due to their loyalty, not their competence. The same network that Trump is building in the USA.
During her visit to #Ukraine, Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche pledged €30 million in additional funding for the Ukraine Energy Support Fund. Germany’s contributions to this fund would then amount to around €450 million total.
According to Yulia Svyrydenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine, the funds will be used to purchase generators, critical energy equipment, and mobile power plants for Ukrainian communities. She also stated that Germany and Ukraine will establish a joint energy working group.
Crude Oil surged from ~57 to ~61 USD/barrel after the US announced sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. The key is for the sanctions to halt more exports than the price increase accounts for (which it should of course do).
A smart and obvious move by the US, they get to export more at a better price and at the same time put pressure on Russia.
Nice to see Trump go from TACO to TAACO (Trump Almost Always Chicken Out).
USA is well the ones trying to economically soap up Russia and China right now economically.
EU couldn’t even agree on giving the Russian money to Ukraine and now we are going to stop buying their LNG in December 2027.
Sitting and working on a post about China but they should be able to bring down China if Europe helps
Sure, but I don’t think they do it for Ukraine’s sake but for their own, their interests simply happen to align.
Regardless, it’s good so I’m satisfied with the decision!
Although I probably won’t cheer properly until those sanctions are actually in place and we see that they are being enforced. It wasn’t until the end of November that they were supposed to take effect, and with a closed USA, there may not be anyone to ensure that the sanctions are followed.
Well, the EU is too timid, I agree. By now, they should have switched gears and stopped all trade with Russia.
Of course, it’s easy for the USA to impose sanctions and demand it from others, as they export oil and are not at all dependent on trade with Russia.
BUT that’s still no excuse for the EU not to have done it a long time ago (most countries have stopped buying oil and gas from there).
I almost thought I would lose hope when Trump had spoken with Putin, and he and Shitkopf started parroting Russia’s narrative again, but in the midst of all the sorrow, Trump turned again and let the already agreed sanctions continue. The first decision Trump has made that is negative for Russia.
It seems like there are some Trump whisperers in the White House who are on our side now, and that’s good. Probably someone convinced Trump that he could make a buck by selling more oil and gas.
China still doesn’t seem to be completely independent of US decisions, as they stopped buying seaborne gas and oil, but that could also just mean that they have increased their pipeline capacity enough to manage without the sea transports.
“President Zelensky met with King Charles in London today during his visit for the “Coalition of the Willing” summit.”
Film:
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3wozqmkls2o
What have they done in the past, and especially in recent months? So Putin is trying to pretend like it hasn’t already happened? 😂😂😂
“🤡🥴Discussions about the possibility of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv are an attempt at escalation — Putin “If Ukraine launches long-range strikes against Russia, the response will be very serious and overwhelming.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m3uqkdx7hs2e
Hm, have they entertained telling him, until Trump put a stop to it, so he doesn’t have a Hitleresque outburst down there in his bunker. No one wants to be the one to deliver bad news to him.
“❗️The Air Command “🇺🇦Zahid” presented the 🇬🇧British Raven air defense system. They reported that one of the Ukrainian Raven anti-aircraft missile systems had already destroyed 24 🇷🇺Russian drones and four Russian cruise and guided aircraft missiles.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m3wqhfv6gs2i
A robot costs $200,000 according to Google?
Off-Topic, weather
SMHI has issued a yellow warning for snow, I also want to warn about yellow snow.
“Yellow warning for snow in the north
SMHI has issued a yellow warning for “periods of heavy snowfall that may cause traffic problems”. The warning is valid between 12 on Saturday and 09 on Sunday in the inland parts of Västerbotten and Norrbotten counties.
The weather may cause slippery roads and poor visibility. It may be difficult to travel in traffic, writes SMHI.”
https://omni.se/gul-varning-for-sno-i-norr/a/pPJVdw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2qcaSyo5UU
Yes, beer is yellow.
I agree with Johan No.1 that it doesn’t look good on the battlefield, but that doesn’t worry me so much.
Ukraine continues to retreat, and it also seems to have some problems with recruiting soldiers. Even if it’s slower than a snail for Russia, it’s not sustainable in the long run. Europe needs to step up its game, and now we might see the U.S. turning around.
Despite that, I don’t believe Ukraine has any problems holding the fronts for another year or two unless there are drastic changes.
However, it seems that Russia has gained an advantage in both FPV drones and the nightly attacks, both of which are increasing. If Russia can continue to escalate, it will be extremely tough for Ukraine.
I’m not afraid that China will enter the war or that Russia will launch an attack on the Baltics (as long as the war in Ukraine continues).
However, I am afraid that Russia’s advantage with Shaheds and drones may become overwhelming if the trend is not broken and Ukraine is not helped to stop it.
Regarding the nightly attacks, Ukraine is stopping significantly fewer now than before. Both their energy supply and military production are at risk, not to mention all the civilians.
Ukraine has been requesting more air defense throughout the war and has developed countermeasures themselves, but apparently, it’s not enough. It’s incredibly frustrating that we can’t even provide them with enough of it.
Instead, we are spending a lot of money helping them restore their energy supply when it shouldn’t have been bombed in the first place.
Ukraine will continue until the end, it is quite obvious but for us it is very important that there is a Ukrainian victory because otherwise it is the beginning of a global conflict of our time.
Russia is at the stage where they will just continue until they crash – you and everyone else know that Europe and the USA have done their utmost to prevent Russia from crashing until now in August 2025.
We have also established that Trump’s peace-mongering stole Ukraine’s chance for an offensive when they had the drone advantage that they lost around the turn of the year. Biden is also to blame for this, of course, that bastard.
—
An not entirely unreasonable outcome will be a ceasefire – Trump wants it, Putin will agree to it when the objectives are met, and Ukraine may not have the muscles to start their own offensives?
If, as you write, Russia increases the pressure with strategic bombing, we may reach the point where Ukraine agrees to stop if Russia stops.
—
That will be the beginning of Phase 2, which is more than overdue because Ukraine has denied them that.
We must not let it come to this – then the war will come to us.
—
The technology race is in full swing and in about half a year Ukraine will have countermeasures against both robots and shaheds, which is a reasonable assumption.
—
I am beginning to sense a certain shift in that people are no longer talking about Ukraine winning the war but rather achieving a “just peace” – very worrying.
Well, it’s damn awful that you can’t carpet bomb the Russian positions like in the good old days.
Russia, or at least Putin, can’t stop without presenting a victory, so they will keep going until they collapse or get beaten.
As it looks now, Ukraine doesn’t have the opportunity to do anything other than hold out while Russia bombs them with FAB and Shahed, night after night.
You don’t win a war by defending yourself on your own territory, it may end with a defensive victory, but then you lose land, and can’t claim any war reparations. For Ukraine to have a chance at winning, they must be more offensive, cut the tail bridge, and wage war even on Russian soil. They were on a good path in Kursk, but one of Putin’s agents in the West put a stop to it.
It doesn’t look very promising now. Europe isn’t showing much offensive character, and Trump just wants it off the table, he has his biggest project at home, transforming the USA into a dictatorship, and then there’s China of course, and a potential little war in Venezuela, because they have a lot of oil that Trump would gladly get his hands on.
And as Johan wrote, talking about a fair peace is ominous. Sounds like Finland’s defensive victory approximately. They get to keep their independence under surveillance from the East, lose land in the East, and have to pay war reparations for a war they didn’t start.
What the hell, Kiev Independent is charging 😡
https://kyivindependent.com/analysis-pokrovsk-on-the-brink-as-russian-troops-drones-infiltrate-deeper-into-ukraines-fortress-city/
The title suggests complexity in Pokrovsk and it is in these situations that one must start to broaden one’s perspective to get the right situational awareness.
Project Owl seems to be completely independent and Deepstate Map maintains its style despite some pressure not to report negatively, so together they provide a fairly accurate picture.
Was it open to me? I don’t dare to quote more than this (which might already be too much).
“After more than a year as the rock upon which Russia’s territorial ambitions in Donbas were broken, cracks are opening in Ukraine’s defense of Pokrovsk, and the end may finally be near.
Less than a day after the video of the murdered civilians emerged, the 7th Corps of Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces acknowledged the Russian penetration to the railway, showing Ukrainian drones targeting the group inside the station building.
That drone saturation, as the war has shown us, only becomes denser with time — and Pokrovsk was no exception.
For the brigades still holding sectors inside the city and in neighboring Myrnohrad, this meant that each and every logistics and rotation run in and out of the city had a higher chance of being hit by a drone than the last.
But to end on a positive note, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, when Russian forces first reached the outskirts of this proud mining city, few expected Ukraine’s defense of Pokrovsk to last until the end of the winter, let alone another year.
For Ukraine to survive in this war — and eventually to win it — the staging of brutal but favorable attritional battles around fortresses like Pokrovsk remains crucial.”
Be careful, we could be sued for large amounts 😶
Off-Topic, Hungary
Already keeping my fingers crossed for Orbán to lose, the risk is of course great that he will suppress the opposition before the election is even held, or that the election results will be manipulated.
“Several hundred thousand people filled the streets of Hungary’s capital Budapest on Thursday. The reason was that supporters of both Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar had called for demonstrations, according to AP.
Orbán’s supporters gathered on a bridge for a “peace march” to mark the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. The demonstrators shouted slogans in support of Orbán’s reluctance to support Ukraine in the war.
“We don’t want to die for Ukraine,” read a large banner.
Later in the day, one of Budapest’s squares was filled with Magyar’s supporters. They commemorated the same day but with a completely different message: That Russia must leave Ukraine.
As Hungary heads to the polls in April, it looks to be one of the closest elections in the country in over 15 years.”
https://omni.se/dubbla-demonstrationer-drog-hundratusentals-i-ungern/a/Vzya54
Expect election fraud 😀
You haven’t missed that China’s latest meeting for the five-year plan placed great emphasis on “reunification with Taiwan,” which means invading and taking over Taiwan.
It is supposed to happen within the next five-year period, preferably soon.
If anyone thought that China didn’t have that plan at all 😀
It has been in every five-year plan, but you have a point.
They have changed how they formulate themselves about Taiwan and it has become a more prioritized issue.
The word peaceful, which they previously used, is no longer used as often.
Can anyone answer the following question – what is Europe working against in the Ukraine war?
What do we want the outcome to be?
Do we have a clear goal and do we allocate resources as any project manager has learned that one must?
As a company – are we ahead of our competitors so that our product is the best on the market?
“We stand with Ukraine as long as it takes”? 🤷♂️
Typically 80% of the FAB convictions the other day were over Pokrovsk must be absolutely terrible in that city now.
Sounds really terrible, but that’s the Russian tactic.
If they come within reach, they bomb until all residents are dead or have fled, and there is no longer a stone upon a stone in the city.
Then they move in and take over the ruins, that’s when they thrive, the rats.
RU has also started using 200km FAB now, which probably allows them to be released at a safe distance from LV and enemy aircraft?
Previously, it was well 60km?
I seem to remember that they talked about 50km.
“🇬🇧🇺🇦 Zelensky: I had a meeting with His Majesty King Charles III of the United Kingdom. I am grateful to His Majesty and to the entire UK for their unwavering support of our people, strong public messages in support of Ukraine and the pursuit of peace for our country.”
🔥 Two enemy radars “Nevo-SVU” and SAM Buk-M3 were destroyed, – GUR Russian equipment were liquidated in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions and Crimea.
“❗️En kolumn av tre Droid TW 12.7 markrobotiska system från det ukrainska företaget DevDroid. Enligt tillverkaren har fordonet en körsträcka på 25 km, en driftsområde på 5 km och kan styras inte bara manuellt utan också med hjälp av AI.”
“While the Kremlin spends the federal budget building missiles to kill peaceful residents of Ukraine, in the Perm region of the Russian Federation, the bridge between two villages is the perfect characterisation of a petrol station, run by the mafia.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3m3wy46f3y22g
“A Russian tank took cover inside a factory building, but concrete offered no protection. An FPV pilot from the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade expertly guided a drone through a narrow gap between beams and debris, successfully striking the target.”
En tjeckisk initiativ Dárek pro Putina (Gift for Putin) har samlat in mer än 12,5 miljoner CZK (598,3 tusen dollar) på mindre än 48 timmar för att köpa en Flamingo-missil till AFU, enligt ett uttalande.
Martin Ondráček berättade för den tjeckiska nyhetssidan Novinky att hastigheten som bidragsgivarna nådde målet med “överträffade alla våra förväntningar.” Den totala summan som samlats in är mer än 640 tusen dollar, enligt projektets webbplats.
Missilen kommer att döpas till DANA 1 till minne av Dana Drábová, en framstående tjeckisk kärnfysiker och en stark supporter av Ukraina som ledde Statens kontor för kärnsäkerhet i många år och gick bort i början av oktober. Tack, Tjeckien! 🇨🇿🇺🇦”
Russian infantry and their “expert use” of anti-drone capes drive Russian military correspondents to hysteria, who note that local commanders lack understanding of proper deployment and fail to provide electronic warfare cover or airspace monitoring.
“Swedish SAAB Gripen flying over Australia”
https://x.com/FlyingDutchPall/status/1981474938138550358
FRIDAY DRUNKENNESS?
Americans are who they are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukzJWK0sKpY&list=PLu23PtZtVPeylYvC7vbgUE8ahJJgDZQsJ
I like both dogs and cats but there is still a certain difference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGzFItk6TAA&list=PLu23PtZtVPeylYvC7vbgUE8ahJJgDZQsJ&index=2
Siri gets jealous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH42eamyDR4&list=PLu23PtZtVPeylYvC7vbgUE8ahJJgDZQsJ&index=3
Cat rally:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdCn4P3gfdA&list=PLu23PtZtVPeylYvC7vbgUE8ahJJgDZQsJ&index=4
If cats had as developed psyche as physics, we would be obsolete. Luckily, they are small and limited in intelligence. 🙂
I think you are absolutely right.
😼https://youtube.com/shorts/VABH5nbChSg?si=jv_JOcsxNm1pPE8-
I think they’ve misunderstood how those are supposed to be used.. Creative anyway. 😄
“Cigarettes go in the square holes”
https://x.com/Mericamemed/status/1981594000231637009?t=CJBByYdmMlA9mkWG1CH1SQ&s=19
We continue FredagsFyllan with cats – clever cats:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NFUgUTZRiHo
Unexpected…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB8GbL8zQhA&list=WL&index=16
This is just SO STUPID… and therefore fun… (but for heaven’s sake, don’t try it!!)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bMD1Swllr38
😂 The last one seemed a bit AI but it was nicely twisted!
Sure! Silly and fun!
80’s vibes – with Sigourney Weaver! (excuse my terrible spelling…)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZtbDE5kyFw
Smooth…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTRl1__dNwg&list=WL&index=20
Always these cats…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlIIfkmQEao&list=WL&index=21
The cats are the best!
Ghostbusters 👻🫶
The risk of stealing a girl’s car…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwm0z1URvyQ&list=WL&index=22
Secret rooms…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4zTaUKKNPw&list=WL&index=17
Street art…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fn_BkAMsNo&list=WL&index=30
More cats (or their kittens)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl13ONU6yk8&list=WL&index=31
Had a friend whose car was worse than hers! Mom had to start by shoveling everything to the back seat.
hmmm, did the shovel come with it??
No, but it would have been needed!
Tommie, his name was. Son of a goalkeeper star.
Why use your feet…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tj97l540AWY
Kitchen disasters….😱
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0kH8Kd3smwU
Yeah, they worked….
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QtwMj1setic
Gymfail
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3_foP1CKY24
Skills…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TEPch_Tbzw8
What cats do at night…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/fpymsyae7ko
uhm.. is this supposed to be some kind of comedy?? “Dumb and Dumber” in Chinese…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffzLA96zpBs
Wow???
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xLnt-V3L_r0
Golf where everything goes wrong.. (yes, guessing AI-created , but fun anyway…)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BD5DJ0y_jjU
Is this true??? OMG…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_OHothanMnE
Last: hysterical!
😂
Last: hysterical
Nepotism, anyone?
“The relatively unknown drone company Unusual Machines is surging 14 percent on Wall Street after securing its largest contract ever with the Pentagon, reports the Financial Times. The President’s son Donald Trump Jr has owned shares in the company for $4 million, equivalent to over 37 million Swedish kronor, the newspaper notes. The contract includes 3,500 drone engines along with several other parts for drones. Unusual Machines states that the Department of Defense has indicated that they plan to purchase an additional 20,000 components from the company next year, writes FT.”
https://omni.se/a/gwVRkA
Hmmm. What are they REALLY planning to use those drones for???
I guess they have a “flexible” range of uses… especially when it comes to Trump & co…