Ukraine daily update October 29, 2025

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When all eyes are on Pokrovsk, Russia is well on its way to neutralize the area east of Kupiansk and the city of Kupiansk.

According to my post last Friday, Lyman, Siversk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Pokrovske, and Stepnohirsk do not look better, and in Lyman, things are moving (backwards) fast.

Ukraine will never be able to retake this area by force, the only way to regain the territory is if Russia leaves all occupied areas and goes home.

What is Europe’s plan here since everyone in Europe says that Ukraine should have a “just peace”?

How – a just peace is surely to regain Luhansk, do you think Europe is planning to recapture Luhansk for Ukraine?

I guess many leaders in Europe don’t have a plan, but they believe that a ceasefire is a first step in the right direction – once we get there, the rest will be resolved, kind of.

Since Ukraine is now retreating everywhere and is about to lose several dominant terrain sections – what do we think will happen next?

Will they continue to retreat, and if so, how far?

As Russia now enjoys China’s digital battlefield, which is evidently putting Ukraine under intense pressure – is this digital capability, by Russian standards, a rather luxurious ability on the rise or on the decline?

According to MXT daily reports, the FPV drones have increased by a thousand per day in recent months, and according to UA reports, there is a lot of loitering ammunition in the air now, which are autonomous “attack drones” – both are bad.

If the digital battlefield and China’s kill-chain are working now – is the latter also working?

A month ago, I wrote something like “Pokrovsk will fall in the future” and received a lot of pushback, including Kenneth Gregg’s post that his battalion in Myrnohrad was doing well.

Kenneth Gregg is silent today, isn’t he?

In Kupiansk, the Ukrainian mechanized counterattacks failed, and the town has actually fallen.

At Pokrovsk, UA has been engaged in a month-long battle around the Russian breakthrough northeast of Pokrovsk, and it is still ongoing.

We who are pro-Ukraine have a bias and do not want to talk about setbacks, but the situation at the fronts does not look good at all.

It is so bad that France is probably starting to consider sending in the Foreign Legion if necessary.

The reason MUST be that China is handling the RU digital battlefield and kill-chain because RU ground forces are horse-drawn artillery with hepatitis and turtle tanks, mixed with a bit of scooter shooting and crutch shooting.

One or two crutch shooters have been seen attacking across the fields as well, without crutches.

Not many discuss this split, and we get stuck in the idea that the Russian military is close to collapse – it is probably not a very fun collection today apart from the priority units and just as poorly as we hear.

First of all, RU is holding back mechanized units, but so is Ukraine.

But above the violent offensives of crutch and crutch shooters, thousands of drones hover, and a Chinese eye behind large bottle-bottom glasses sees everything that moves – nothing escapes the little multitasking Chinese.

The latest technology meets Tannenberg, but Ukraine cannot combat these Chinese multitasking bottle-bottom glasses, only the crutch shooters.

We will look at what is happening in action, and Ukraine is currently retreating everywhere.

This recently flew by about some planned Russian coup – could that have been what made Ukraine so positive earlier?

We can assume they are trying this, and the candidate presented is likely.

Now we have a pretty big event around the corner, and that is the Trump – Xi meeting.

The tip seems to be that there will be a trade deal – the USA says that China has given in, and China says that the USA has given in, so both can declare themselves winners forever.

The only way for Europe to achieve peace is if China stops supporting Russia, and they will only do that if forced – a trade deal is not exactly coercive.

The only way to get Russia to stop killing children is if they cannot continue because they have no ammunition, and they will have it until China stops supplying them.

How does China’s digital battlefield fare against UA qualified mechanized forces?

UA failed in Kupiansk, and a couple of counterattacks northeast of Pokrovsk have failed with significant losses – do you think it was the crutch shooters or the crutch shooters who found their inner Viking and an extra magazine?

Or a little Chinese with bottle-bottom glasses who has a whole palette of indirect capabilities and sees everything that moves?

So how does Ukraine stop Russia?

When the area east of Oskil is cleared of the Russian bastards, a lot of Russian brigades are released to engage in other activities.

I don’t think Ukraine will be able to stop Russia as long as China can operate their digital battlefield. Rather, the pressure on the frontline units will increase.

USA and Trump, you can try to figure out – Venezuela is to be leveled, and Russia is bringing in LV and anti-ship missiles there because China is supporting them.

Venezuela is a problem for the USA because China has entered the country – do you need more evidence than Maduro standing at the podium showing off his new Huawei phone that he urged everyone to buy.

So the USA is trying to kill two birds with one stone – overthrow Maduro and install a USA-friendly figure who gives them first dibs on the oil.

But in Ukraine, RU should be treated with kid gloves – a very big difference and not consistent at all.

USA is economically pressuring China, but there will be a trade deal.

The only thing that has really happened here is that Ukraine has stopped caring about what the USA/Trump says about the war.

Probably Europe has also stopped listening to the USA – Trump probably did not approve of the French buildup with troops.

If Ukraine had the drive in offensives that we see from RU, we would say that they were on their way to winning the war.

RU’s offensive is not diminishing, and UA says they will increase the pace in the future – RU has more gas, and they have had a sustained offensive since the fall of 2023.

How do we break the trend – that is the question all European leaders are asking themselves right now?

Or is war fatigue spreading, and our leaders are either eager for a ceasefire and eternal peace or are preoccupied with domestic politics?

Or are they like Kier Starmer on their way out and have other things to think about – a “lame duck” period?

We know that Ukraine will fight on until the last FPV drone, but there is a risk that we will actually get there if Europe does not start making some tough decisions.

The Foreign Legion is a step in the right direction – Macron can be trusted a bit.

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50 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update October 29, 2025”

  1. maggan

    Let’s hope that Macron’s ‘wife’ stays calm. Feels high risk that she or some gang shoots an internal torpedo into Macron’s warmongering against the peaceful ryzars.

  2. MXT

    Russian losses in the war in Ukraine 2025-10-29:

    • 1150 KIA
    • 4 Tanks
    • 3 AFVs
    • 20 Artillery systems
    • 1 MLRS
    • 313 UAVs
    • 79 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
    • 2 Special equipment
  4. MXT

    If China tightens control over the export of chemicals used to produce fentanyl, the United States is expected to halve the so-called fentanyl tariffs to 10 percent, sources told the Wall Street Journal ahead of Thursday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea.

    China is expected to agree to the demands, but a deal depends on how the talks progress, according to the newspaper.

    A 10 percent reduction would result in Chinese tariffs of around 45 percent. This level is closer to other trading partners and could make China’s goods more attractive to buyers in the United States, WSJ writes.

  5. MXT

    “The Central Bank of Russia has predicted that, in the event of tougher sanctions and a drop in oil prices to $35 per barrel, Russia could face its worst economic downturn since the 1990s. As of now, this remains just a scenario for Russia, not probability.

    Economic pressure on Russia is extremely important. For the first time since the mid-1990s, the Russian economy could shrink for two consecutive years, with inflation surging to a ten-year high, forcing households to drastically cut consumption and businesses to slash investment.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m4cuhycbck2l

  7. MXT

    Donald Trump may talk to China’s Xi Jinping about Nvidia’s superchip Blackwell when the two leaders meet tomorrow. He said this aboard Air Force One on his way to South Korea, Reuters reports.

    The sale of the advanced AI chips has been a key sticking point in the protracted trade negotiations between the countries. The US has an export ban on the chips to China, citing that they could be used for military purposes. Trump called Blackwell a “super duper chip” and added that he is “very optimistic” about the meeting with Xi.

  8. 205

    En lägre aktivitet senaste dygnet sedan den dygnet innan rekordartade aktiviteten i Pokrovsk med omnejd, där Pokrovsk gick från ett enormt till ett knappt mycket kraftigt tryck. En sänkning i övrigt längs hela fronten, utom i Lyman där aktiviteten ökade från knappt märkbar till märkbar. Fördelningen av 143 av de av AFU 148 rapporterade stridshandlingarna enligt nedan.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2↘️
    S Slobozhansky 5↘️
    Kupyansk 8
    Lyman 13💥↗️ 🗺️
    Slovyansk 10💥
    Kramatorsk 2
    Kostjantynivka 18💥↘️
    Pokrovsk 45💥💥💥↘️↘️
    Oleksandrivskij 23💥↘️
    Huliaypillia 7
    Orikhivsk 7
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3

    The aggressor carried out air strikes, in particular on the areas of the settlements of Dnipro, Novooleksandrivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region; Rivnopillia, Zaliznychne, Uspenivka, Bilohiria, Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.

    Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces, and artillery of the Defense Forces struck six areas where personnel, weapons, and military equipment were concentrated, as well as three enemy artillery systems.

    Two combat engagements took place in the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions over the past day. The enemy carried out nine air strikes, dropping 25 guided aerial bombs, and carried out 174 shelling attacks, including 10 from multiple launch rocket systems.

    In the South Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders near Vovchansk and Kamianka five times.

    Eight combat engagements took place yesterday in the Kupiansk direction. Our defenders stopped the enemy’s assault in the area of the settlement of Pishchane and in the direction of Shyikivka.

    In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 13 times, trying to break through our defenses in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Derylove, Novoselivka, and in the direction of the settlements of Korovii Yar, Drobysheve, and Oleksandrivka.

    In the Sloviansk direction, the Defense Forces stopped 10 offensive actions by the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Yampil, Dronivka, Serebryanka, and Hryhorivka.

    In the Kramatorsk direction, two clashes were recorded, with enemy units attempting to advance in the direction of Virolyubivka and Fedorivka.

    In the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy carried out 18 attacks in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Shcherbinivka, Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka, Stepanivka, and Sofiivka.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 45 assaults by the aggressor in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Novoye Shakhov, Chervonyi Lyman, Rodynske, Novoeekonomichne, Lisivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetsk, Dachne, and Filiya.

    In the Oleksandrivka direction, the enemy carried out 23 attacks yesterday in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, Verbove, Uspenivka, Novohryhorivka, Rybne, Pavlivka, and Vyshneve.

    In the Huliaipole direction, our defenders stopped seven enemy attempts to advance in the areas of Novomykolaivka and Luhivske.

    In the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian units stopped seven enemy attacks on the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Shcherbaky, Stepove, and in the direction of Novoandriivka and Novodanilivka.

    In the Prydniprovsk direction, the enemy attacked the positions of our defenders three times in the direction of the Antonivsky Bridge, but was unsuccessful.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of the formation of offensive groups by the aggressor were detected.

  11. 205

    Russian troops outnumber Ukraine 8-1 in the Pokrovsk sector, “Imagine how many Russian forces are there. But at the same time, they have not achieved the planned result,” Zelensky told reporters on October 27th.

  12. MXT

    👍

    I agree 100% that it would be good if we could stop China’s support to Russia, if they stopped delivering drones, etc. and stopped buying oil, Russia’s economy and capability would decrease drastically.

    However, I unfortunately think we will have a hard time succeeding with that and wonder how it will be possible.

    If the USA and EU had joined forces, we might have had a chance, but the USA under Trump is not Europe’s (when it comes to trade) or Ukraine’s friend when it comes to defeating Russia, and any trade agreements will be based on the best interests of the USA and Trump.

    If Xi is smart, he could offer Trump to buy a few billion Trump coins, maybe give him a luxury yacht, and promise that the wealthy Chinese living in the USA will also buy Trump coins and large amounts of DJT shares…

    Of course, there is a chance that Trump could get China to buy expensive oil from the USA instead of buying it from Russia. That would be a win for Ukraine, but it doesn’t mean that China is defeated by it.

    He probably won’t care about the Chinese export of drones and other equipment that the Russians need, there is no upside for him there. The USA does not manufacture FPV drones.

    —

    Yes, Kupiansk has been in bad shape for a long time, and it seems to be only a matter of time before the entire Russian front reaches the Oskil River. Then they can take a break as you write and free up forces for other areas.

    Something else that most people seem to ignore is how the front is changing southwest of Pokrovsk (towards Pokrovske). There, the Russians are advancing every day, taking large areas, and if they continue, they will soon reach the highway.

    So, they have crossed the border here, and soon they will declare another oblast as Russian.

    Europe and the USA allow it to happen.

    1. MXT

      “The USA is set to reduce the number of soldiers stationed on NATO’s eastern flank, reports AFP.

      According to NATO, the alliance was already informed about the decision. The US action is described as an “adjustment”.

      “Even with this adjustment, the American military presence in Europe remains larger than it has been in many years, with significantly more American forces on the continent than before 2022,” a NATO official said.

      Poland’s Minister of Defense said at a press conference that he has not been informed about the possibility of reducing the number of troops deployed in Poland, reports Reuters.”
      https://omni.se/usa-minskar-antalet-soldater-i-osteuropa/a/eM2LzM

  14. MXT

    💥🔥✊👍
    “Overnight, an explosion and fire were reported at the “Novobryanskaya” 750kV substation in Vygonichi, Bryansk region. Prior to the attack, a drone threat was declared.”

  15. MXT

    💥🔥✊👍

    “⚡️Ukrainian drones strike 2 oil depots in Russian-occupied Crimea, media reports. Ukrainian drones targeted oil depots in the city of Simferopol and the village of Hvardiiske in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight on Oct. 29, the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3m4d2uydtk22x
    https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-strike-2-oil-depots-in-russian-occupied-crimea-media-reports/

    2. MXT

      “Drone strikes hit two oil depots in occupied Crimea on 29 October — Crimean Wind. Fires erupted at an oil facility in Simferopol and Hvardiiske. Both facilities supply fuel to Russian forces, with military tankers spotted moving in and out of the Simferopol depot just a day before the strike.

      The Hvardiiske depot, which belongs to ATAN—Crimea’s largest gas station network—was already attacked on 17 October, when fires burned for several days and destroyed at least five large fuel tanks.”

      https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3m4d23i4pcg2n

  17. MXT

    Maybe one should not completely give up hope?
    A bit strange that he is considering supplying weapons from other countries? What was he thinking there?

    “❗️US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that Donald Trump continues to consider the issue of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine or the possibility of transferring long-range weapons from other countries.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m4d2dxw2hs24

    1. Analytikern

      Europe is primarily Europe’s problem. If the USA has now slowed down technology that is American, it’s probably about releasing that brake? Lex JAS? So, open up for Taurus or other long-range options that would be good, but on Europe’s own budget and without eroding layers of what the USA themselves might need in large quantities, in other parts of the world.

  19. MXT

    “Trump’s politics create unprecedented opportunities for Xi Jinping

    Donald Trump and China are hot topics on both Dagens Nyheter’s and Expressen’s editorial pages.

    DN writes that the American president’s policies in the long run create unprecedented opportunities for Xi Jinping’s regime. Historically, the USA has had economic and military strength, alliances spanning the globe, and a political model that has attracted people worldwide.

    “All of this is what Donald Trump is challenging. Of course, Xi Jinping can live with that.”

    Expressen’s Ylva Nilsson writes that the major trade war between the countries is underway, but Europe seemingly has no plan for the EU’s position. She writes that EU leaders have been going to China for business all autumn.

    “To sit passively in the EU but play the national card in hopes of a better outcome is also a kind of tactic.””

  20. MXT

    The GPS disruptions on Gotland have increased significantly in recent years, reports TV4 News. In 2023, 55 incidents were reported. So far this year, there have been 860 cases. This is an increase of 1,400 percent.

    Alf Söderman, defense director at the Gotland County Administrative Board, points to Russia.

    – Everything indicates that the signals are coming from the Kaliningrad or St. Petersburg area, that is, Russia, he says.

    The GPS disruptions affect critical functions such as ambulances, maritime navigation, aviation, and agriculture.

    Söderman says that Gotland is now working to reduce vulnerability by developing alternative solutions for when GPS precision is lost.

  22. MXT

    “SBU strike drones destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S2 air defense system, two radar stations, and hit two oil depots in occupied Crimea, sources in the Security Service of Ukraine told Ukrainian media.”

  23. MXT

    “Ryssarna hängde sin flagga vid en av ingångarna till Pokrovsk. Som tidigare nämnts är striderna inne i staden mycket intensiva. Ryssarna kontrollerar de flesta ingångsvägarna med FPV-droner vilket gör logistiken mycket svår. Situationen ser inte särskilt bra ut.”

  24. MXT

    Off-Topic, Dutch elections

    The USA has a few parties with only two having a chance, but on the other hand, I think the Netherlands has gone to the other extreme with its 27.

    “The Dutch polling stations have opened and voters now have to decide which of the 27 parties they want to govern the country, writes The Guardian.

    Since the Dutch electoral system is entirely proportional, it is enough to get 0.67 percent of the votes to secure a mandate, and a party for citizens over 50, an animal rights party, and a single-issue party advocating for universal basic income all have real chances of entering parliament.

    Three parties are neck and neck in the polls: the far-right party PVV with Geert, the left alliance GL/PvdA, and the liberal D66 are expected to each get 23 seats, according to Politico.”
    https://omni.se/vallokalerna-har-oppnat-27-partier-att-valja-pa/a/yELjQK

    1. Proxima

      I think Ukraine is acting like the adult in the room. I consider the Ukrainians to conduct an intelligent warfare where the goal is to save as many soldier’s lives as possible. There will be a life after the war and then every man will be needed to rebuild the country. Ukraine has decided to win the war and they will succeed. Peace will come when the Russian people stand in the way. Not on the battlefield. Ukraine is tired of the USA, NATO, and the EU and they will handle it themselves. Admittedly with material help from Europe. Speaking of which. Soon you won’t be able to walk upright in this city. More griffins came in for landing and there is no squadron here…

  28. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel – Palestine

    Ceasefire or truce and how long until next time?

    “After the Israeli attacks on Gaza, which began on Tuesday and continued into Wednesday morning, the IDF reports that the ceasefire has now resumed, several media outlets report.

    At least 104 people have been killed in the attacks, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, Reuters reports.

    The attacks were ordered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Israeli military personnel were fired upon in southern Gaza on Tuesday. Israel has accused Hamas of being behind the attack, which Hamas denied involvement in and stated that they had nothing to do with the shootings, Haaretz writes.”
    https://omni.se/efter-dodliga-attackerna-vapenvilan-ar-igang-igen/a/3Ml3r0

  29. Umlaut

    That the Foreign Legion (hopefully) is getting involved is a good sign, but what are they really going to do in this trench warfare? Where the West should have intervened, and still has a technological advantage, it’s in air forces and precision missiles. I fear that deploying 2000 legionnaires is just a step in the West’s slow and fruitless “escalation.” By constantly only sending the outdated or absolutely necessary, the Russians, admittedly at the cost of many lives but lives are cheap in Russia, have been able to adapt and overcome. I understand, it’s politically difficult to send off children and spouses of voters to risk their lives in another country, but the fact that we haven’t even established a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, or border patrols against Belarus, shows that we are not serious.

    1. MXT

      I agree with you, it doesn’t feel like we are taking it seriously.

      The legionnaires should probably start taking a Ukrainian basic course in modern warfare, then maybe it’s best to deploy them at the border with Belarus so they can liberate Ukrainian soldiers.

      Still good if it actually happens, a small step in the right direction. Perhaps it can unlock so that more countries allow their military personnel who want to go to Ukraine to do so without risking losing their jobs when they return home.

      1. Umlaut

        We do not dare, but countries with a professional military should have dared to take over the relatively safe tasks such as securing the border against Belarus at least six months into the war. Likewise, NATO should have started shooting down robots in western Ukraine that theoretically threaten NATO countries, of course coordinated with Ukraine. Shooting them down could have been done without the platforms even being in Ukrainian airspace/territory = minimal escalation.

  30. MXT

    “Ukrainian partisans blew up railway tracks in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast as a Russian military train was passing through. Result: The explosion derailed a locomotive, ten wagons, and one cover platform, completely stopping rail traffic on the section.

    Ukrainian resistance fighters have been systematically targeting Russian supply routes bringing ammunition and equipment to the front.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3m4dbvmhbtx2i

  34. MXT

    “Nearly 27,000 households in Odesa Oblast woke up without electricity after Russian drones struck a major energy facility overnight.

    ♦️126 drones launched across Ukraine
    ♦️DTEK energy facility hit
    ♦️One energy worker injured
    ♦️26,900 consumers remain without power as temperatures drop
    ♦️Critical facilities like hospitals are running on generators
    ♦️Repair teams work to restore the grid.”

  35. johan No.1

    That many European leaders have been in China during 2025 to distance themselves from the EU and the USA is EXTREMELY bad.

    Against China, we only get one chance and now their dollar-killer started with purchases in yuan.

    Finance has no borders so if it works, EUR will be hit just as hard as USD.

    Moreover, China is also stopping exports to Europe, not just the USA.

    Damn knows where this will end, but there are plenty of examples of countries going down, and right now Europe seems determined to sink themselves.

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