Ukraine daily update October 9, 2025

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Lionesses

Today we are discussing China again, but want to highlight that Ukraine is now quietly receiving a lot of heavy vehicles, both tanks, armored vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles from the West.

I will return with a separate post on how to break through the numbing drone cover – through mobile mechanized warfare, of course.

It is my opinion that China was cautious about the Ukraine war for a long time, but on May 9, 2025, they chose to wholeheartedly support Russia and this summer of 2025, they also fired an economic torpedo at the USA in the form of a “swift-killer.”

It started earlier, of course, but if Russia had gone and lost the war during, for example, the UA spring offensive in 2023, then China would probably have backed off.

China is not foolish and knows that the risk of expanded war exists. They also know that their production for Europe and the USA is in jeopardy, and that the West will first fire an economic weapon followed by interstate war.

They are also intimately familiar with Japan in the 90s.

Do not underestimate China will probably be the first words of wisdom for the day. I have been working with them since 2006 and have seen them go from rigid party officials with translators, political commissars, and “stone and spade” technology on naval projects to them now in 2025 winning the tender in the Caribbean both on price and technical solution against an American, French, and South American company (the last one was the favorite as they bribed heavily).

The political commissar was easy to find because he never said anything, everyone bowed to him, and when you entered his office, it was full of Muay Tai (rice liquor) and Chinese candy everywhere because everyone showered him with gifts so they wouldn’t get fired.

China is patient and works purposefully so they have a solution for everything we might come up with until the USA goes into full war with them.

That doesn’t mean they will win. Russia thought they would be having dinner in Kiev a week after the start of the offensive – they had booked all the tables at the restaurants and brought their dress uniforms.

“when the first shot is fired, the war takes on a life of its own” some tearful German general probably said once and waved his arms, but he was right anyway.

But by now, everyone probably understands that China will be a much tougher nut to crack than Russia, and that they also need to be dealt with – they are already a belligerent party in the Ukraine war.

We will develop the reasoning below, and now that Macron subscribes, the French headquarters finally have a sensible basis for making their decisions.

Nelson Mandela is also involved, but mostly for the Friday drinking sessions at johanno1.se, he’s a devil at chugging pints and rarely gets drunk.

The remaining text can be read here: https://open.substack.com/pub/johanno1/p/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-9-oktober?r=4r1n7u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

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77 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update October 9, 2025”

  3. 205

    An increased number of hostilities in the past 24 hours according to the AFU’s morning report, with 200 out of 217 total clashes distributed along the front as below, with a highly noticeable combat pressure in the north (increasing), noticeable in Luhansk, very strong pressure in Donetsk, and a noticeable pressure in the south, which is a significant decrease.

    North
    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 9💥
    S Slobozhansky 34💥💥↗️
    Luhansk/East
    Kupyansk 7
    Lyman 15💥
    Slovyansk(Siverskyi)10
    Donetsk/East
    Kramatorsk 0
    Kostjantynivka(Toretsk)17💥
    Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
    Oleksandrivskij(Novopavlivka)40💥💥↗️
    South
    Huliaypillia 0↘️↘️
    Orikhivsk 9💥
    Dnipro/Prydniprovskij 1

  8. MXT

    Interesting Johan!

    China is really not our friend, and apart from military capacity, we have voluntarily sold most of our production to them for many years.

    But of course, it’s natural for it to happen when we have a free market.

    Companies are looking for maximum profit as quickly as possible and don’t think much about what it means for the future when their own production disappears along with the jobs. But it doesn’t matter that much for the largest ones. They can also start selling to Asia instead. But that requires putting their own development first and letting China handle the manufacturing. That’s where they’ve come full circle, because now China has caught up and is also leading in many areas.

    That’s probably why the USA is starting to get desperate (and for example trying to hinder green transition, where China is strongest). Suddenly they are no longer leading even in research, design, and development in certain areas and risk being overtaken on all fronts if nothing is done.

    Even if the USA wouldn’t have any problems defeating China, do they dare to risk a war and thus completely stop deliveries to China?

    If it were to be prolonged, how long could they manage without China’s deliveries of medicine, electronics, etc.?

    Economically, it would of course be a blow for China as well, but the question is who can survive the longest without the other? Furthermore, the population in China wouldn’t have much of a say, while I am convinced that there would be quite loud protests in the USA as soon as the first losses with killed soldiers are reported and they also feel a significant economic decline.

    Even though China is weaker, it’s not certain at all that they would be the losers in a global war, precisely because we have given them power over almost all production, directly and indirectly.

    —

    They have previously made it difficult for us to import, now they are taking another step, this time it’s even more expanded control.
    It’s not a direct export ban, but it certainly complicates things as there will be even more administration that takes time and costs money, and then China can choose to delay approval of licenses as long as they feel like it.

    Doesn’t sound so bad to require a license, but it means that they also have full control and the mechanisms are in place so they can quickly revoke the licenses if they want.

    “China tightens export rules for rare earth metals and related technology. Several news media report this.

    The rules mean that foreign companies must now have a Chinese license to export goods containing traces of Chinese rare earth metals or manufactured with Chinese technology for extraction, refining, and magnet production.

    The purpose is to give China increased control over global supply chains. The restrictions are described as a Chinese version of the USA’s rules on direct product export that Washington has used to stop semiconductor-related exports to China from third countries.”
    https://omni.se/kina-infor-nya-restriktioner-pa-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller/a/o3j9B0

    —

    Here’s a small example of the control they exert over their population, and if they censor bloggers for being negative now in peacetime, one can easily understand what will happen if they were in a war.

    “Bloggers and influencers have been punished in China’s censorship campaign aimed at stopping the spread of negative emotions and pessimism. Two influential bloggers advocating for working less have had their accounts blocked, writes the New York Times.

    It involves an influencer who said that it is economically sensible not to get married and have children and another who is known for directly pointing out that China still lags behind Western countries in terms of living standards. …”
    https://omni.se/bloggare-i-skottgluggen-far-sina-konton-nedstangda/a/JbVlVP

     

    1. MXT

      China is trying to make everyone believe that they are peaceful and only want to engage in trade, and that they have their defense only to protect themselves.

      Here we see clear preparations for an invasion of Taiwan
      (If the Japanese source is correct: https://www.sankei.com/article/20251001-J6TMERNIBRMKRGH5562GRAO7BM/)

      “China constructed a large-scale replica of Taiwan’s central government buildings to conduct special forces exercises aimed at simulating an assault to neutralize Taipei’s seat of power.”
      https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3m2pvjl5ik22l

    1. MXT

      Thank you!

      Since apparently humans never learn and can’t refrain from military conflicts, some security control is probably needed where one looks after their country’s and region’s possibilities to be self-sufficient.

      Even if it may cost a little more in the short term than letting the free market do as it pleases.

      Sounds almost a bit communist, of course 😄, ideally one wants it to work with completely free trade.

      BUT it’s like letting the defense deteriorate. Wasted money one might think, but then suddenly we find ourselves in a situation where instead we are forced to spend enormous amounts of money to rearm and we have to keep our fingers crossed that we won’t be attacked before we are prepared.

      Now we risk a slowing economy and shut down industry because we have become dependent on China.
      Furthermore, there is a great risk that we will let China do as they please, because the economic consequences will be too high.

      The world is not a beautiful utopia and then we can’t pretend that it is either, because then we’ll be surprised when the shit hits the fan.

      We have been naive (and also chosen to look the other way) because it has benefited us economically so far and we have not been willing to make certain sacrifices. 

  10. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel, Palestine 

    Israel is about to approve the agreement and if everything goes as planned, it will be signed by both parties later today. We keep our fingers crossed for a soon end to the war, and if that happens, we will indeed have to give credit to Trump for it. 

    Now it’s a bit unclear what the first step actually entails. Personally, I have a nagging concern that when HAMAS releases the kidnapped individuals, it will only be a short pause before the war continues. As I have written before, I don’t believe Israel wants to end it and that they will find some reason to continue, but we’ll see.

    “It is still unclear what the agreement between Israel and Hamas actually means. According to Donald Trump, the first phase involves the release of all 48 hostages, alive and dead, and for Israel to withdraw its forces from Gaza.

    A high-ranking Hamas official told AFP that Israel is to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences in Israel.

    The exchange is to take place within 72 hours of the agreement being signed, which according to reports to Reuters is scheduled for 11:00 today, Swedish time.

    There are conflicting reports on when the Israeli hostages may be released. Some media outlets report that it could happen as soon as this weekend, while Trump tells Fox News that it will happen on Monday.

    Other known details include that at least 400 trucks of emergency aid will be allowed into Gaza per day during the first five days of the ceasefire.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he will convene the government this afternoon to approve the agreement. Hamas spokespersons say that negotiations for the agreement’s second phase will begin “immediately.”

    Source

    “Israel and Hamas have agreed on the first phase of a peace plan in Gaza. Donald Trump announced this on Truth Social on the night to Thursday.

    According to Trump, this means that the hostages will be released “very soon” and that Israel will withdraw its forces from Gaza. A source told Haaretz that those hostages who are still alive are expected to be released on Saturday or Sunday.

    Hamas, in turn, states that Israel will release around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement, as reported by Al Jazeera.

    The agreement between the parties is expected to be signed in Egypt at 11:00, Swedish time. The ceasefire will take effect immediately, according to a source for Reuters.

    Trump describes the agreement as a first step towards a “strong and lasting peace.”

    “This is a great day for the Arab and Muslim world, Israel, all neighboring countries, and the USA,” he writes in the post.

    Source

    If this is true, one can certainly wonder about how willing Israel really is.

    “The Hamas-controlled civil defense reports new Israeli attacks on Gaza, just hours after Donald Trump announced that the parties had agreed on a first phase of a peace agreement, reports AFP.

    The attacks have mainly targeted northern Gaza.

    In a video published by the news agency AP, filmed from southern Israel, explosions in Gaza can be seen.”

    Source

  11. 205

    Russian offensive campaign assessment October 7 2025

    — Understanding War Research

    https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2025/

    🧵✍️ Lew Anno Support
    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1975819995876655369?s=46

    Russian troops suffered the greatest losses on three fronts in Ukraine: ISW explained what lies behind the numbers

    Recently, a leak of Russian documents revealed the real losses of the Russian Federation on the front since the beginning of 2025.

    It also indicated that on some fronts, the Russians are suffering abnormally high losses:
    – the ratio of killed to wounded is almost 1 to 1 – compared to the classic ratio of 1 to 3.

    The aggressor paid the highest price on several priority fronts for Moscow, but the gains there for Russia are practically negligible.

    The leaked data indicate this, and the Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar explained what can be said about the prospects of continuing the war based on the current losses of the #Russian Federation.

    2/
    The ratio of killed and wounded in the Russian army is abnormally high
    Analysts have drawn attention to the leak of Russian data on the losses of the occupation army , published recently by the “I Want to Live” project .
    👇
    Colossal figures: data on Russia’s losses in the war against Ukraine in 2025 have been released
    https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/kolosalni-tsifri-zyavilisya-dani-pro-vtrati-rosii-u-vijni-proti-ukraini-za-2025-rik.htm 🇺🇦

    According to the leak, from January to August of this year, Russia lost a total of 281,550 of its soldiers on the battlefield .

    86,744 people were eliminated (including 1,583 officers and 8,633 recruits ).

    33,996 people are considered missing , including 11,427 recruits .

    Another 158,529 were wounded in battle (this figure includes 6,356 officers and 16,489 enlisted men ), and 2,311 were taken prisoner.

    These figures, noted ISW, are practically in line with the data announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky:

    299,210 people killed and wounded as of September 9.

    The ratio of killed and wounded occupiers is interesting :
    – it is 1:1.3 .

    Analysts suggest that this is due to insufficient tactical medical training and the frequent inability of the Russian military command to sufficiently rehabilitate the wounded.

    ” The standard ratio of killed to wounded is 1:3 , which demonstrates that Russian forces currently have an abnormally high ratio of killed to wounded (1:1.3), likely due to the effectiveness of widespread tactical drone strikes , which have created hit zones (an area immediately near the front line where the mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones poses an increased risk to any equipment or personnel entering the area) throughout the theater of operations, making it difficult for both sides to evacuate the wounded and triage them,” the material says

    Analysts also recalled that ISW previously reported that wounded invaders are often not evacuated due to the threat of strikes by Ukrainian drones….

    Where the Russian occupiers suffer the greatest losses

    Data released by the “I Want to Live” project –

    – indicates that the Russians suffered the greatest losses in 2025 on several front lines – those that are priorities for the Russian command.

    Thus, among the “record holders” is the “Center” group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces , responsible for the Pokrovsky direction : from January to August, it had 43,709 killed, missing and captured, as well as 52,865 wounded .

    “These figures reflect the priority of the Russian military command on the Pokrovsky direction during 2025, as Russian troops suffered approximately 34% of their losses in this direction during the first eight months of 2025,” the material says.

    Within the “Center” group of forces itself, there are also clear “leaders” . These are the 2nd Combined Arms Army , which lost 15,310 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 16,260 wounded , and the 51st Army (former 1st Army Corps “DPR”) with 13,000 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 14,201 wounded.

    The Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army has been mainly engaged in battles south and east of Pokrovsk since October 2023, while the 51st was redeployed to the front line east of Pokrovsk in early 2025 and is currently responsible for the Russian breakthrough in the Dobropillya area.

    Analysts also mentioned the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Center Group of Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, which operated in the Novopavlovsk and Pokrovsk directions and lost 7,544 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 13,335 wounded.

    “Russian forces were unable to capture Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Novopavlivka, and Druzhkivka after months of fighting, despite significant losses ,” ISW noted

    Not far behind the “Center” was the “North ” group of troops, which in early 2025, as analysts noted, “prevented significant penetration of Ukraine into the Kursk region ” and is responsible for Russia’s efforts to create buffer zones in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions : it lost a total of 53,572 people.

    “Russian forces may have suffered a significant portion of these losses during the intensified Russian efforts to retake the Kursk region in February and March 2025 ,” the material states.

    The top three “leaders” also include the “West” group of troops, responsible for the Kupyansky, Lymansky and Borivsky directions :
    – it lost a total of 47,410 servicemen.

    Thus, the 1st Guards Tank Army, which was mainly involved in the Lyman and Kupyan directions, lost 9,987 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 11,411 wounded .

    This is the third largest figure among the Russian naval forces fighting in Ukraine. And such losses, analysts emphasize, emphasize the intensity of the fighting in the Kupyan and Lyman directions in recent months.

    The 20th Combined Arms Army of the “West” Group of Forces, which operated in the Boriv and Lyman directions, lost 6,410 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 5,712 wounded.

    “The Western Group of Forces failed to capture any of the main settlements in its area of ​​responsibility — Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman — in 2025,” analysts pointed out the result of Russian efforts, which cost such losses.

    The occupiers also suffered significant losses on less priority areas of the front in eastern and southern Ukraine for Moscow

    Thus, the “South” group of troops , which operated in the tactical area of ​​#KostyantynivkaDruzhkivka and in the #Siversk direction, lost a total of 32,740 people , while the 3rd Combined Arms Army (former 2nd AK “LPR”) in the Siversk area lost 13,055 soldiers, which is the largest figure in the group of troops.

    “The Southern Group of Forces has made minimal progress since the capture of Toretsk in June 2025,” ISW recalled.

    The “East” group of troops , responsible for the eastern part of the Zaporizhia region and the Velikomykhailiv direction , lost 38,011 people .

    At the same time, the 5th combined arms army , responsible for the #Russian advance into the #Dnipropetrovsk region and its territory , lost 16,980 servicemen :
    – the highest figure in this group of troops.

    “Combat operations in the Dnipro Group of Forces area of ​​operation , which includes the Kherson direction and western Zaporizhia region , remain relatively unsystematic amid Russia’s ongoing efforts to restore the front line in western Zaporizhia region, where the Dnipro Group of Forces suffered 13,243 casualties ,” analysts noted.

    Will colossal losses stop Russia?
    Continue reading🧵9/18:
    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1975824727294783603?s=46

    2. 205

      In Pokrovsk, it has been stated many times in the AFU’s evening report that the proportion of deaths from manpower losses is around 1/1. And even higher, as in yesterday’s evening report about Pokrovsk:

      “In the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy has attacked 37 times since the beginning of the day in the areas around the settlements of Zatyshok, Nikanorivka, Chervonyi Lyman, Lysivka, Razine, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Dachne, Muravka, and towards the settlements of Myrnohrad, Balagan, Pokrovsk, and Filiya. Our defenders are holding back the enemy’s advance, three battles are still ongoing.

      According to preliminary information, 122 occupiers have been neutralized in this area today, of which 87 are dead. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers have destroyed a cannon, two cars, two motorcycles, 20 drones, four units of special equipment, and an enemy drone control point.”

      87/122*100=71%. So more than 1:1.

  12. MXT

    “Russia’s state nuclear power company is preparing to restart the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, reports Reuters, citing the state news agency RIA. The news agency writes that there is no reason to be concerned about the safety of the nuclear power plant.

    The nuclear power plant has been without electricity since the end of September.

    Ukraine says that Russia created the crisis as a ploy to justify connecting the power plant to the Russian power grid in order to restart the facility, writes the New York Times.”
    https://omni.se/ryssland-vill-starta-om-karnkraftverket-i-zaporizjzja/a/vg4xmw

  13. 205

    ”Russia would have to spread out its air defense coverage to protect command centers, air bases, and logistical sites deep inside the country, a task already pushed by Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks.”

    “Tomahawk offers far larger and more capable warhead effects than Ukraine’s long-range UAVs, far greater terminal accuracy than its indigenously developed Flamingo cruise missiles, and far greater range than the Anglo-French Storm Shadow or SCALP,” Bronk said.

    Emil Kastehelmi added that large-scale Tomahawk strikes could force Moscow to “prioritize and decentralize some of their assets and operations,” especially those linked to oil refineries, logistics, and training facilities.

    Why Tomahawks for Ukraine would be a ‘real headache for Russia’

    “If supplied without major targeting caveats, Tomahawks could significantly increase pressure on Russia’s air defense system,” Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent.

    https://kyivindependent.com/would-tomahawks-be-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/

     

    1. MXT

      👍

      Applies pretty much the same to the Flamingo (a little worrying that we haven’t seen more of it, wondering if they are aiming for a massive attack later this winter). 

  15. 205

    Feels suboptimal to comment on the blog here. Since only the introduction is here. Also, I don’t find it attractive to comment in two places. I comment on Twitter, among other things, to get image assets for my comments here. If the images could have been inserted directly, maybe I wouldn’t have been as active on Twitter, but at the same time, it’s a redundancy as well as an information source. However, I don’t have much appreciation for Substack as a platform. I’ve had some subscriptions that I have recently unsubscribed from as I haven’t used them.

    1. MXT

      Johan No.1 is allowed to comment on his decision to lock parts of the content (but maybe it’s better to skip adding “half” posts here and just post the times it’s completely unresolved?).

      Was thinking of replying regarding file uploads: 

      When it comes to saving images directly in the blog, it’s something that will come gradually, planning to build an isolated environment for the files on a separate server, but at the same time, I’m in the process of restructuring my server environment (different virtualization techniques, etc.)  and currently testing various solutions.
      In the long run, it should provide both better performance and redundancy, as well as make maintenance easier.
      Need to have it ready before moving on so I don’t risk having to partially start over.

    2. johan No.1

      If you have any suggestions on how we should proceed, they are gladly received.

      We’ve been running the site for almost a year now, it’s fun to keep going and it’s read daily.

      Plus, we are passionate about Ukraine, and the basic idea from my side was to keep up the interest since otherwise the war will come to us – but we are far beyond that point now. I thought I’d stick it out for a year or two.

      MXT describes himself as a Ukraine addict 😀

      This takes time, a lot of time. I’ve been lucky to have a job where the project start is delayed so I do nothing at work, but I basically sit full-time working on posts and being active on the site.

      MXT spends 3-4 hours a day, I think he usually writes, and for him, these are billable hours he spends on this site instead, as well as all the time setting up the site and direct costs for the site (excuse me if I’m wrong MXT, you may clarify).

      For almost a year, we’ve been trying to have everything open, voluntary subscriptions, voluntary donations, and ads, but it hasn’t worked out for the simple reason that the number of people donating or subscribing is low.

      Completely voluntary is not sustainable in the long run, everyone should agree on that, right?

      But as I said, open to suggestions, so please provide input on how we should proceed.

      1. MXT

        Just the posting of posts and comments takes around 3-4 hours per day for me. Then there’s the maintenance and development of features, of course. The translation with the help of AI probably took around 40-50 hours (on the other hand, not many of the visitors benefit from it since we haven’t managed to attract many English speakers).

        It doesn’t work financially, but at the same time, I find it really difficult to refrain from commenting, etc. I’m passionate about this and will probably continue in some form anyway, regardless of donations or not.

         

        1. Bal

          First of all, I have great admiration for your work and hope that everything works out.

          One question, how much does the number of visits and posts affect the financial situation. Not at all?

          1. MXT

            Thank you, that warms my heart!

            Not directly, but indirectly it has significance of course. More visitors mean more ad views (but it needs to be in large volumes for them to make a difference, as I have realized now that we have tried it) but also more people who may choose to donate if they like the content and become regulars.

            If it were to grow significantly, it would also be possible in another way to find fixed partners with whom to tailor ad spaces.

  17. alfaomega

    The reading value has unfortunately more or less disappeared when you only get the introduction to the yellow wall. I am also not interested in acquiring additional places to read or occasionally comment on. So I probably repeat my suggestion about a survey regarding what we readers wish for, where the alternatives in some way ensure that Johan and MTX can make ends meet financially. Personally, I prefer more advertising if that is the solution. It would be sad if, for example, 205 gave up, you contribute so much to the blog.

    1. MXT

      The ads don’t generate as much as one might think, and there have been those who left the site because of too many ads, so unfortunately, that’s probably not a solution. 

      During the two months of August and September, we made 1757.20 SEK. 
      Then taxes need to be paid on that and split in two, so it ends up being just over 200 SEK each per month.

      That’s enough for some Friday beers, chips, and dip, so the money will be put to good use at least!

      1. alfaomega

        Then the issue with advertising, as I wrote about below, falls apart.
        I understand that you can’t exchange several billable hours per day for around 200 SEK per month. It really doesn’t work.

        1. MXT

          No, it’s an expensive hobby during work hours. 😄

          Although I guess I have to blame myself a bit too, it wasn’t initially meant for me to do more than set up a basic site for Johan, then it grew.

          I could settle for writing in my spare time, but on the other hand, there wouldn’t be any posts on the days when Johan doesn’t write anything. Even though it’s Johan’s blog fundamentally, I still feel for it and all the readers.

  18. MXT

    NOTE!

    I want to be clear that you as visitors should not feel pressured in any way. 

    It is not your fault that we are not getting better traction on this, it is simply that we have not managed to attract enough visitors or create content that is attractive enough.

  19. alfaomega

    How many unique visitors does the blog have per day? I’m thinking that this page might be able to have a low monthly subscription fee combined with advertising and skip Substack (since commenting there takes time), would that be a way forward? Or is Substack better from an economic perspective? Could one consider a yellow wall once or a couple of times a week and shorter posts the rest of the days along with the MTX loss report? Would that, together with 205’s posts, be enough to start the discussions? Losing track of something here…

    1. MXT

      I set up a poll now, and was thinking along the same lines.

      Everyone here seems to hate Substack 😄 so I thought, maybe we could set up a paywall here instead. Those who pay get to see the whole yellow wall. Those who are happy anyway and hang out here more for the comments can ignore it. 

      Then we could also use it as bait and give out free subscriptions to those who post comments, maybe that way we’ll get better engagement too… 🤔

      (Then Johan probably wants to keep the money for himself while I’ll be the one building that paywall 😂)

      Johan No.1, what do you think about such a solution (didn’t have the energy to check with you beforehand).

       

      1. T23

        Here I think you’re onto something MXT. If you want to read the entire yellow wall, you need a subscription, otherwise, you’ll have to make do with ‘simple’ posts and the comment field. I would probably become a paying subscriber in that scenario 👍 

    2. MXT

      Forgot to respond to unique visitors.
      In the last 30 days, it has fluctuated between 377 and 560 unique visitors per day, while the unique visitors for the entire period are 2,600.

      Surely, some of it is junk in the form of bots scraping the pages, etc. and it’s probably far from everyone who would be willing to pay anything but say that 500 out of those 2600 are willing to contribute 50 SEK per month. Then it would be 25,000/month. That would make quite a big difference.

      Then there’s that thing with yellow walls once a week, Johan has written that he will also post unsolved ones, then I don’t know how many there will be.

    3. 205

      Alfaomega is onto something, which MXT confirms.

      Regarding payment yellow wall, an inspiration can be how big dragons sometimes let articles be unlocked in various ways, often with some limitation. There are different strategies. One is that those who click on a link in an email get access. Another is that the article is unlocked very early after publishing, and even if these pioneer readers share the article (see above). Then, on the other hand, one can have unlocked articles that are older…

  21. johan No.1

    Drive on, I’m not going to vote 200 times as before.

    Do you have to be logged in to vote?

    I think you put together a good set of questions 👍

    1. MXT

      I have left it open for everyone, suspecting that we have many who read but don’t log in. Of course, this can provide a skewed basis if some want to mess around, but there shouldn’t be that many.
      Then it’s not possible to vote multiple times anyway (in a simple way).

    2. alfaomega

      Good questions, but I miss the question of whether you, Johan, should publish all your yellow walls gathered in book form….. they are both very informative, provide a good picture of the war in chronological order, and are very entertainingly written despite the tragic events they deal with. The work is already done so to speak, so it’s just a matter of securing a book contract with a suitable company, right? It could bring in some money there, I think….
      You have to think outside the box….

      1. johan No.1

        A book contract would of course be great fun.

        The posts are in chronological order which makes it easier – the first year is probably on the other blog and I will at some point save them.

        To put it into book form would take a long time but if you use the posts, the other blog, and this blog, you have a pretty good idea of how things went.

        The problem is as follows – I write in the present, meaning what passes by this week I make a post about, and the further back you go, it’s all from memory.

        As soon as you need to go back in time, you have to start searching for sources and surely not all the links work anymore, which then takes much longer.

        Just putting together three posts about U137 is over a week of full-time work and then all the preliminary work is already done and I just need to search, cut, and paste.

        I have had a little thought that when I stop working I could do this.

        Ideas are gratefully received and a book contract is also welcomed with joy – do you have any suggestions?

        1. MXT

          Then you have the problem if you go back in time and compile, then all the analyses and predictions that have not been proven true will be discovered! 😂

          Joking aside, it could become a good book where the reader gets to follow how the war has progressed but also what has been discussed and believed could happen, etc. But I think like you, it would probably need a lot of work to become good reading afterwards for those who have not already followed you all the way (except for tracking sources etc. that may not even exist anymore).

        2. alfaomega

          IF you write in the preface/pitch that it’s all about the snapshot and your perception of how the war unfolded, then you don’t need to quality assure the text….. and you can’t click on any links in a book….. unless you go for a digital version of course. But then maybe you should include a disclaimer regarding clickability?
          I have no contacts in the publishing industry at all, but you could always check with LW?😀
          Secure all your yellow walls so that you have power over them….

  24. johan No.1

    Now I’m at work after an hour in the car down, a bit like Russian roulette and will one survive but it worked out today too.

    Excellent with a vote – encourages everyone who is engaged to vote.

    Please vote only once so we don’t end up chasing an alternative that was a person who voted 200 times like I did with the Zapad25 vote.

    MXT and I have probably now clarified the time we spend on this so we are past it, the only addition is that we do not run the platform to promote anything else – we don’t sell anything, don’t want your votes in an election, we don’t intend to pursue a career in the spotlight, or in any way that the site benefits us.

    We write about Ukraine because we are engaged.

    The site is not growing exponentially but it seems that those who are interested have found their way here now – a good group and a fun thread.

    More are welcome to comment – it would bring more life to the thread.

    As I said, I had planned for a maximum of two years and then to stop when Ukraine had won the war, now we are almost four years into this and heading towards a global conflict – it will not end.

    My idea of ​​posting locked posts on the site was that I would not disappear completely and that I thought the comment thread was a greater asset for many – not many comment on the posts.

    It turned out not to be entirely true 😀

    At least now everyone has become engaged and has an opinion which wasn’t so bad – now let’s have a vote and see where it ends up.

    Sometime next week we should have a way forward, right?

    1. Proxima

      I like the tone of the blog. In a difficult subject like a bloody war, Johan no 1 writes with a flow and knowledge that makes it engaging for the reader. Additionally, he doesn’t lack humor. Humor is important in war. Ask the English. This, together, makes his texts enjoyable. One is thus carried away. Top grade, therefore. It’s an A (big A). We had such grades in primary school. Yes, I went there.

      I also want to commend MXT for his part of the blog. With an undertone of kindness, he steers the blog in the best way. Another big A there. Thank you for the floor.

  25. johan No.1

    MXT’s response to your China post above.

    Now I get the feeling, which may be completely wrong, that you assume we won’t go to war with China if we don’t start it?

    But yes – the cowards in the West may not dare, you have a point and that is my blind spot.

    Our production did not disappear on its own – it disappeared because the Chinese state sponsored it, they provided money until it became cheap and attractive enough for our companies to move. China has violated all ethical and fair trade rules since day 1.

    You write; “Despite China being weaker, it is not certain at all that they would be the losers in a global war, just because we have given them power over almost all production, directly and indirectly.”

    The problem here is that China is only getting stronger and will eventually attack us.

    Right now, they have armed Russia, which is carrying out war-preparing sabotage throughout Europe and actively trying to collapse us just below the level of interstate war.

    The question is rather whether we dare to make the necessary tough decisions or not, reasonably?

    I believe the USA has analyzed the situation correctly and that they have a time window to deal with it before China surpasses them.

    Neither the USA nor China will be overrun, invaded, and colonized.

    It will be a heavyweight match in Asia and a global crash, but we survived Covid.

    The question is which country is the most stable, and since both Russia and China are colonial states and dictatorships, history tells us that we will come out on top.

    They go into a war economy first and collapse first, the USA is also known to be quite street smart but they are currently struggling with Trump.

    Ukraine/USA/Europe have just stolen everything from China and Russia, it is on the rise.

    I think it can only go one way provided that the USA doesn’t collapse first 😀

     

     

     

    1. MXT

      It might end up with us going into a war against China, but it will be a last resort and of course depend on what they come up with. If they fully support Russia and attack the Baltics, we have no choice. If China takes Taiwan, who knows.

      I think it will be like with Ukraine, one wants to do right and does a lot of right, but going all-in is something I believe they will avoid for as long as possible. We haven’t reached that point with Ukraine yet.

      Now I’m talking about Europe, but it could also become a problem for the USA if that heavyweight match happens. If China cuts off everything to the USA, manages to sink an aircraft carrier so 5,000 soldiers lose their lives. Will there be cries for peace in the USA or will there be a desire for revenge? Not entirely sure where we’re heading. Admittedly, most in the USA are for increased support for Ukraine but not for sending in soldiers.
      Will they be more willing to sacrifice themselves for, for example, Taiwan?

      However, if the USA and Europe wholeheartedly engage in it, I don’t think Russia/China would stand a chance, but as you write and as I agree, China is catching up to the USA and will surpass them unless something changes. Perhaps China is ready to take the chance now or will they choose to wait?

      At the same time, the tone towards China has changed, so maybe they have to act soon, before the USA and Europe start becoming more independent of them.

      I’m just speculating but I can’t claim to have any answers.

  36. MXT

    The NATO countries are considering responding forcefully to what is seen as increasingly provocative behavior from Russia, according to sources to the Financial Times. The background is Russia’s violations of the airspace of member countries. According to the information, considerations include arming drones currently used for surveillance, and lowering the threshold for when combat pilots are allowed to act against Russian threats. The discussions are being held at the initiative of countries that share a border with Russia, but also include France and the United Kingdom, according to the newspaper.

  37. MXT

    The Israeli vote on the peace agreement with Hamas has been delayed due to disagreements within the government, several media outlets report. During Thursday’s discussions between the ministers, the far-right security minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced that he is against the agreement. He opposes, among other things, the release of 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences as part of the agreement. A first meeting in Netanyahu’s security cabinet has concluded, and a second meeting with the entire cabinet, where the vote will take place, is said to have begun. If the agreement is approved, several things will happen. Israel states that a ceasefire in Gaza will come into effect 24 hours after the meeting in Jerusalem. Israeli forces are also expected to withdraw within a day. Within 72 hours, all hostages in Gaza, both alive and deceased, are expected to be returned to Israel. Once the hostages are released, Israel will release 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,700 Gazans who were detained during the war. Both Israel and Hamas state that up to 600 trucks of emergency aid will enter Gaza every day.

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