We are in a phase of global escalation that I think everyone has now understood, even though some still find it difficult to accept?
I’m pretty sure Europe is preparing for war even if our governments are downplaying it.
Since you all know that Russia is constantly escalating the level of violence, the question you need to ask yourselves is – what is the next level after drone swarms into Poland?
If nothing happens by the summer of 2026, I will admit that I am wrong, close all my accounts, and start growing tomatoes instead 😀
Because then the door to the Baltics is closed, and the danger is over if Ukraine has held out.
The overall escalation includes destabilizing our countries through various influence operations, and then it is blown up to the maximum on social media to have the greatest possible impact.
You remember my discussions about spectacular acts of violence that provoke, such as the Russian Quran burnings in Sweden, Russia is good at finding topics that touch people.
We don’t know who shot Charlie Kirk and who was behind it, but we know he was shot in front of rolling cameras – almost hard to get more impact than that?
A shooter was on a roof 180m away, it would have been much safer for the shooter to shoot him when he went out with the dog in the evening or a car bomb – an easier escape route.
”A robbery gone wrong” is otherwise a good way to get rid of your enemies, or if you don’t want any discussion at all about the murder – heart attack.
Whoever was behind it wanted that person/group to evoke maximum emotions, bloody, horrible, outcry.
Then there are hundreds of “left-wing accounts” laughing, mocking, toasting, praising, and in other ways twisting the knife in the wound of MAGA – and many are anonymous 🧐
Never miss a good crisis, they say, whoever was behind it we don’t know, but we know that Russian influence is simmering on social media.
For MAGA in the USA, it’s probably hard to have a redder flag in front of them than this – the detestable “lib and woke” in their neatly cut colorful hairstyles laughing so hard they cry when MAGA’s prophet bleeds out in a heap on the ground.
A neatly cut and colorful Pearl Harbor for MAGA?
How do you best lock down the USA, maybe through large-scale protests but not as advanced as in Nepal?
USA has recently announced that they will focus on internal security instead of being the world police, and Trump has just surrounded himself with the entire National Guard in Washington as a preventive measure.
There are quite a few layers to this onion, and one of them is definitely that Trump was already supposed to restore security before and loudly believed that the entire opposition was actually just one big security risk that should be locked up for life 😀
I actually discussed this in a post early winter if you remember – the big post about Trump that you all read, right, part of his job was to turn the USA inward 🧐
In France, the gangs have also jumped on the bandwagon now. It is important not to forget that Macron is the one who has taken the lead against Putin since early 2024, and now it is his second government crisis and large-scale protests in the country.
France is also one of the few countries still willing to send troops to Ukraine along with the UK, which is probably the very last thing Putin wants to see, of all the things he would prefer not to see – he is willing to go far to avoid it.
In the UK, there are also major demonstrations on the way because after Macron, Putin is most upset with the not-so-subtle Starmer – the UK has been at the forefront of taking a tough stance against Russia after France. But Starmer has also been a weak leader in bad times, and the country has polarizing problems. It is volatile and requires no galactic influence operation from Russia’s side to bring down Starmer, probably.
In Germany, Putin still believes he can control things, even though Merz as a person is the political leader in Europe most exposed to Russian subversive activities now. The funny thing is that Russia doesn’t give a damn about Merz, but that doesn’t stop them from inventing various dramas that they repeat on social media. A bone-dry German bureaucrat who is so boring that the clocks stop, he solves crossword puzzles with his wife on Saturday evenings in front of the news and with a cup of tea.
One thing politicians always do is strongly condemn crimes against their own, regardless of party affiliation. Some may argue that they take their own security more seriously than that of the citizens since we have +60 no-go zones where they have surrendered control to the gangs to rule over those who live there, but that’s another discussion.
There is another aspect as well – no politician is eager to end up like in Nepal, being dragged through the streets by angry students whose TikTok got blocked. Our leaders are starting to fear large protests that escalate completely, and the groundwork is there throughout Europe now – the latest seeds were planted in 2015 and they have started to grow.
That’s why they come out and strongly condemn anything that looks like attacks on politicians, in the UK they are introducing opinion laws with harsh penalties, and soon we will roll out Chat Control 2.0 if it passes in the EU.
By the way, do you read anything about Chat Control 2.0 other than Emmanuel Karlsten’s writings?
I don’t, and it is the most repressive measure against EU citizens in many years, in addition to our government now being able to take your house for certain types of criminal activity if you cannot immediately prove that you bought it with legal income. A bit unclear how my +80-year-old mother could prove that with a house bought in 1976, but let’s not get bogged down in the details. But then again, she won’t commit the crime that triggers the forfeiture law 😀
Every leader in Europe knows that it is Putin who can spark these demonstrations if he wants, if you are too prominent in condemning Russia, the risk is high that right-wing, left-wing, and Islamists will take to the streets in your country. It is no secret that Russia has tentacles in all three groups.
They also control parties on the left and right fringes, so your opposition is troublesome and breathing down your neck, and on top of that, they have bought a couple of parliamentarians in your party who constantly scream for votes of no confidence at the slightest provocation.
They also own influencers and prominent debaters who will all push out the information they receive from the GRU about you, sometimes it’s true, sometimes it’s fabricated, but it’s not about what’s true that matters, but how much it shows up on social media nowadays.
An easy target is ethnic tensions but also political divisions where the level is already at “you are a Nazi” when it comes to your political opponents.
Contradictions between countries in Europe cannot be hoped to be achieved by Russia, so they have to settle for the next best thing – internal strife, toppled governments, and economic crisis.
If they could, they would have incited interstate wars here, but it had to be in Africa and Asia instead.
Did you hear that 16 local politicians in Germany have died in the past month?
I immediately asked if it was Russia, to which a unanimous Bluesky burst out laughing, but if the opposition doesn’t start killing at some point, Russia will take care of that part, it’s included in the package.
To me, it looks like an ambitious attempt to destabilize Germany, even though the police have ruled out “foul play” – I don’t know what that means, probably that they are natural deaths as described by the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ykyewrerpo
4-5 times excess mortality, in any case, if you had sold a drug, you would have gone bankrupt.
I think it’s starting to get ridiculous with all the explanatory models that are supposed to be launched when the truth is that Russia has now started to seriously destabilize us.
We said in the fall of 2024 – winter of 2025 that we would come here this summer, and we have indeed done that – quite predictable all this as long as one accepts that China and Russia are on an escalating upward curve and already at war with us.
If one doesn’t accept that, one continues to find alternative explanatory models and make a big deal out of the occasions we pounce on that turn out to be wrong.
As I said, we are in the most dangerous phase of the war in Ukraine and also on the brink of further escalation towards Europe, which will close in the summer of 2026.
Whichever way we resist until the summer of 2026 is good, but if we fail, the downside is absolutely brutal, and then it would have been better to go to open war.
I’m a bit like Churchill, whom I recently discovered I’m related to, so you must address me as Lord from now on – “never take a chance and strike first” was his motto.
The highest risk is if Russia attacks down towards Lviv from Belarus and Poland does not enter Ukraine. After Poland’s positioning in recent weeks, I’m starting to worry about that, and we have had it as a guaranteed commitment from Poland throughout the war.
It will then be paired with an attack up from Transnistria and a crossing of the Dnieper, even though the 104th AAD has now left the Dnieper front.
The risk is high because the consequence of Ukraine being overrun and losing the war is unpredictable.
A significantly lower risk is if Putin believes he can get away with invading the Baltics, low probability on that, so then the risk becomes low.
Then you have the lowest risk of opening a conflict with Europe in the Baltics through Estonian partisans and green men – the risk is low because the consequence is initially low.
If the financial markets crash, the risk is no longer low, as it would affect our willingness to engage in violent conquest wars.
The latter two are good for Ukraine in the long run because they draw Europe into the conflict.
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The war in Ukraine – Russian losses 2025-09-12
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
The drone map from last night:
“Hundreds of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 long-range drones are attacking Russia. It’s one of the largest UAV attacks by Ukraine during the whole war.”
https://bsky.app/profile/ukrainemap.bsky.social/post/3lylp5avars27
According to the Russians, at least 7 were stopped on their way to Moscow, but the Russians usually lie, we’ll see if anything else comes up about it.
“⚡️Ukrainian drones shot down while approaching Moscow, Mayor says. At least seven Ukrainian drones have been shot down near Moscow amid a Ukrainian attack on the Russian capital, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said overnight on Sept. 12.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lylvk53wfk2v
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-shot-down-while-approaching-moscow-mayor-says/
💥⚔️🇺🇦💥
“Smolensk got its own fireworks Last night several explosions rocked Smolensk — “unknown drones” hit the area around the Lukoil refinery. Russia’s air defense put on its usual “show”: telling locals not to film, while the rest went up in flames on its own.👇”
💥🔥👍
“🔥 As a result of AFU attack, the Kardymovo oil depot in the Smolensk region was hit. At least 2 hits were recorded, – CyberBoroshno ❗️Tank park: ~ 10,900 m³ for light petroleum products”
Looked like this before it was hit:
“Drones target Moscow, Russian oil facilities in reported large-scale Ukrainian strike. Explosions have been reported near Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Smolensk, and the Pulkovo Airport was shut down due to the threat of drones.”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-shot-down-while-approaching-moscow-mayor-says/
Friday today and weekend approaching. I believe one of the goals of Ukraine’s drone attacks is to shut down the airports in Leningrad and Moscow.
“In Luhansk region, strike UAVs hit an ammunition depot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lym5kcye3s2t
“Residents of the city of Tosno in the Leningrad region report explosions Upd: Governor: “Air defense forces are working against UAVs over the territory of Volosovsky, Tosnensky, Gatchinsky, Lomonosovsky districts of the Leningrad region and the Pushkinsky” https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lym5qiyunk2t
“💥 Russia: Leningrad region has been under constant Ukrainian drone attack throughout the night and it continues into the morning. 800km+ from Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3lymg7lojs22c
“Ukrainian drones also struck Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, with the attack continuing into the morning. It’s still unclear what was hit, and damage assessment is ongoing.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lymisv4wos2r
Polen kommer att samarbeta med Ukraina och europeiska allierade för att stärka den polska luftförsvaret efter den ryska drönarattacken, säger Tusk. Ukraina kommer att hjälpa Polen att utveckla effektiva anti-dronförsvar medan europeiska länder kommer att leverera militärutrustning, inklusive stridsflygplan och Patriot-batterier.
To Poland?
Aren’t they ashamed?
Aren’t we ashamed?
“Use of FPV drones on russian shelters with infantry in the village of Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia region.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lymbraxilk2t
“A fire broke out in a non-residential building in Sumy following a Russian drone strike on the morning of September 12. The body of a security guard was found under the rubble.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lymkfqoi2s2r
Good, then one has secured oneself from hostile attacks in connection with ZAPAD! *irony*
“Poland shut its border with Belarus at midnight, setting up barbed wire and barricades, halting all crossings. Meanwhile, Belarus claims its checkpoints will continue to operate as usual.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lymkimefsk2r
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian military shot down 33 out of 40 🇷🇺Russian UAVs”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lymlxzjdac2a
I believe that GPS disruptions may decrease.
Out of the 195 battles reported above by MXT, 174 were distributed among the daily reported front sections,
distributed as follows:
S Slobozhansky 13💥
Lyman 21💥↘️
Siverskyi 18💥
Toretsk 12💥
Pokrovsk 60💥💥💥
Novopavlivka 33💥💥
👍
Sorry for being ignorant. According to yesterday’s announcement from the government, Sweden is supposed to send coastal radars, towboats, and accessories for Combat Boat 90, among other things, to Ukraine, which is said to have over 30 combat boats plus other landing craft.
Obviously, Ukraine needs this, otherwise they would have sent something else.
Everything indicates that Ukraine is preparing for a major push towards Crimea, in my opinion. If that’s the case, why is the government so open about disclosing what is being sent? Russia gets all the information on a silver platter. Do as Finland does, keep quiet about what is being sent.
Several of the battles are taking place along major waterways (rivers streams). For example, the Oskil River in the Lyman sector (above). However, I have no idea if such vessels are used there or are suitable. But with blown-up bridges, one can imagine that some kind of watercraft is needed, possibly high-speed.
At the same time, it was also said that there were things they intended to deliver that they did not intend to reveal what it was about. They should therefore be aware that not everything should be disclosed.
Combat Boat 90 is probably already used in Dnepr or Oskil, like 205 is involved in. The drones probably have no problem seeing them.
However, it may have been foolish to reveal it the first time when they sent them. It would have been better if it had come as a surprise.
Lord Johan No1: ”If they could, they would have started interstate wars here, but it ended up being in Africa and Asia instead.”
The idea with the EU has been to reduce the risk of wars between states through increased trade. However, the problem the EU has had and still has is that it has not been/is not equipped to handle threats/challenges from the outside. In some way. And that is probably one of the reasons for Brexit, even though Russian influence operations surely also played a part in it.
The EU’s external protection remains a weak construction. The fact that a large number of drones fly into the EU (Poland) at all shows that there is no established way to act that has been communicated to the world. Yes, NATO has Article 5, but for an EU that values its trade (and its internal peace), there should have been no-go lines long ago with clear consequences if anyone crosses them.
The EU’s security cooperation feels more like an idea on paper than something that has been realized. It seems like they simply assume that everything will be resolved through NATO.
In this matter, the EU appears to be mostly about redistributing money, even though they have some military capabilities and specialists within EEAS + EUMPCC who are supposed to conduct analyses, plan, hold smaller exercises, etc., and that they have a small “emergency” response force of 1500 soldiers (which has never been used).
NATO’s standing response force consists of 40,000 men.
I believe the EU would need to reconsider its defense strategy and not just rely on NATO.
JEC 😀
💥🔥👍
Doesn’t sound like they’ve caused much damage, but the Russians usually lie so we’ll keep our fingers crossed that it’s burning like crazy. If not, I hope Ukraine makes new attempts. If they can close the port and/or set fire to the adjacent depots, it would put a stop to part of the Russian shadow fleet.
The port is not easily accessible to the public, so maybe not much footage will leak out from there other than smoke clouds in the distance.
“⚡️Update: Drones attack Russia’s Primorsk Port, causing fire. Leningrad Oblast Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said the drone strike ignited a fire on a vessel in the Primorsk Port, Russia’s largest oil-loading port in the Baltic Sea.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lymeksxuic2w
“Finnish location Koivisto, now named Primorsk (Russian Приморск, Primorsk). Russians think places next to Finland are safe, guess again.”
https://x.com/Terraformer100/status/1966391577560924378
Zooming in on Google Maps. Substantial tanks in one of the depots. Positioned in pairs and protected by fire lanes in between, so it might be difficult to knock out more than two at a time.
In that case, it might be better to target the smaller ones directly adjacent to the port, making it difficult to pump oil on board.
Sounds good!
“🛳️🔥 One of the ships in the Primorsk oil terminal on the Baltic Sea (St. Petersburg district) is on fire after a drone attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lymokfliak2c
Russia copying Kyiv’s drone technology as ‘direct technological race’ accelerates, Ukraine army chief says. “We are dealing with a direct technological race in which the advantage will go to those who not only modernize but also stay ahead,” Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said
IAEA reports drones, gunfire near 2 Ukrainian nuclear plants amid Russian attack. “According to our teams on the ground, these were unusually large-scale military activities close to these two nuclear power plants, which should never happen,” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said.
Nu utbildar Ukraina NATO:
Poland to send military representatives to Ukraine for training on shooting down Russian drones. Poland will send its military representatives to Ukraine to undergo consultations and training on how to effectively shoot down Russian drones, Zelensky said on Sept. 11.
Och teknologi:
Exclusive: Europe scrambles for Ukrainian interceptor drones after Russia’s attack on Poland
“We need to be prepared for war, so it is high time to be learning from Ukraine,” a European military diplomat told the Kyiv Independent, on condition of anonymity.
https://kyivindependent.com/
Completely incredible this
I read on DI.se that Denmark is buying an air defense system for over 50 billion Danish kronor… and they are turning down the American Patriot system that was previously being considered.
Well done Denmark 🤘
👍
👍German?
Yes, they should get help with that. Such as at least regular delaying inspections.
👍
NPC “Vtorovo”, Transneft … Vladimir region … moment of arrival of the Hungarian Pelican … Report for the 14th SBS regiment … pass it on to Magyar
🇷🇺 ”Putin’s offices in three russian cities are fully identical – down to the exact placement of the pencil holder with the emblem and a dozen perfectly sharpened pencils inside.”
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1966284561660436927?s=46
1/
The frightened tsar Putin:
Putin has three identical offices in different regions of the Russian Federation and keeps his whereabouts secret.
The Russian terror dictator rules the country from three identical offices located in different regions of the country.
They were specifically built to conceal his actual location.
This is revealed in the book “Exchange:
The Secret History of the New Cold War”, written by journalists from The Wall Street Journal, based on CIA data.
Putin’s offices in three Russian cities are completely identical – down to the exact placement of the pen holder with the emblem and a dozen perfectly sharpened pens inside.
Even those close to the terror dictator usually do not know in which of the 11 time zones he is located.
Putin barely uses his mobile phone and avoids the internet. Instead, he connects to meetings via closed video channels.
His assistants appear on the screen without having any idea where the president is physically located.
The Kremlin further reinforces the illusion by sending empty motorcades and decoy birds to make it look like Putin is traveling.
2/2
As the authors emphasize, the offices have no windows, so the appearance makes it impossible to understand the geographical location.
At the same time, engineers from the president’s communication service transport trucks with equipment around the country to maintain the operation of these “Zoom-era bunkers”.
According to witnesses, Putin actually works in an information cocoon, completely cut off from the outside world.
Some experts argue that such isolation not only helps a warlord avoid threats, but also creates an artificial reality for him, where he perceives events exclusively through filtered reports from his immediate surroundings.
This can affect decision-making and increase his distance from the real situation in the country.
About Putin’s secret bunkers and where the Russian terror dictator can hide.
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/na-glibini-do-200-metriv-yak-viglyadayut-sekretni-bunkeri-putina-i-chi-zdatni-voni-vitrimati-yadernij-udar.htm
Information about the bunkers has been published in several journalistic investigations conducted by Western intelligence services.
After analyzing the information, we can conclude that Putin has prepared at least five locations for himself in the event of a nuclear war.
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/putin-mae-tri-identichni-kabineti-v-riznih-regionah-rf-i-trimae-mistse-svogo-perebuvannya-u-taemnitsi-the-times.htm
Exciting 205 😀
At a depth of 200 meters: what do Putin’s secret bunkers look like and can they withstand a nuclear attack?
Source and images:
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/na-glibini-do-200-metriv-yak-viglyadayut-sekretni-bunkeri-putina-i-chi-zdatni-voni-vitrimati-yadernij-udar.htm
News from Russia
10.04.2025 13:11
The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin regularly threatens the entire civilized world with the use of weapons of mass destruction. At the same time, the war criminal himself is panicked for his own life and has built bunkers all over Russia in case a nuclear war breaks out.
It is obvious that the terrorist state of Russia is trying to conceal information about the dictator’s secret hideouts, but some information has still leaked online. OBOZ.UA has found out what is known about Putin’s secret bunkers and whether they can withstand a nuclear attack.
Information about the bunkers where the Russian dictator can hide has been published in several journalistic investigations and has been a target for Western intelligence services. After analyzing the information, it can be concluded that Putin has prepared at least five locations for himself in case of a nuclear war.
It is no secret that one of Putin’s bunkers is located right under the Kremlin, as its existence became known from information from the American intelligence services several decades ago. According to preliminary information, the depth of this shelter can reach up to 200 meters, and its features make it possible to withstand a nuclear attack. According to Kremlin’s plans, the highest military and political leadership in Russia will be located in this bunker if a nuclear war were to break out.
One of the most discussed bunkers could be located under the foundation of a palace near the Black Sea, 20 km from the city of Gelendzhik in the Krasnodar region. For the first time, the result of the dictator’s years of corruption was revealed in an investigation by Alexei Navalny, after which new facts about the palace began to emerge.
The information about the bunker was openly published by the construction company Metro Style. Drawings confirming the existence of a network of tunnels under Putin’s palace were available on the contractor’s website between 2010 and 2016.
The published information suggests that there are separate tunnels under the palace connected by an elevator that goes about 50 meters underground. This bunker is equipped with an adequate water supply, ventilation, and large cables to sustain life functions for several days or weeks.
Another bunker belonging to the war criminal may be located under the state residence Novo-Ogaryovo in the Moscow region. According to some information, at Novo-Ogaryovo, the dictator has decided to protect himself not only from nuclear war but also from biological weapons. The Russian opposition political analyst Valery Solovey said in an interview with Russian media that there is a specially protected room on the residence’s territory, including biological air and water purification filters.
One of the bunkers furthest from Moscow that Putin could have built is in the Urals. It has been claimed on the internet that the dictator’s shelter is located in the Yamantau mountain in the secret city of Mezhgorye in the Urals. It is noteworthy that the secret administrative and territorial unit of Mezhgorye emerged after the merger of two military towns – Beloretsk-15 and Beloretsk-16, located 20 km apart.
After the start of full-scale war against Ukraine, the Russians intensified construction work at this location. Journalists noted that huge sums are being invested in the bunker at Yamantau. In addition, the airspace over the area was closed, and it is practically impossible to approach this zone on foot. Satellite images from 1995 show the construction of new military infrastructure on the Yamantau mountain, but Russia refused to respond to the US inquiry about what is being built there.
It has been repeatedly reported online that it was in the bunker in the Urals that the dictator hid as the clock on Doomsday approached midnight. At the same time, the Kremlin categorically denies the existence of bunkers for Putin and calls information about such shelters “absolute nonsense.”
Other bunkers for Putin are scattered all over Russia. In addition to those mentioned above, there is information today about a bunker in the Sverdlovsk region under the Kosvinsky Stone mountain. This bunker is known as “Grot” and was originally built to analyze data from radio centers and space communication centers.
Another bunker is located in the mountains in the Altai Republic, about 4000 km from Moscow. This hideout is built directly under Gazprom’s sanatorium, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, local residents have seen the Russian dictator’s helicopter near this mountain on several occasions.
There are also other, less known bunkers all over Russia. However, they are mainly used for provisioning. There, oxygen, food, fuel, and backup communication equipment can be stored.
We remind you that the US intelligence services are convinced that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not interested in ending the war against Ukraine. Despite diplomatic efforts from US President Donald Trump’s team, Kremlin’s leader may have greater incentives to continue the conflict rather than hasten a complete resolution.
Maybe it’s possible to fly in with a mini drone in a ventilation duct or something like that?
👍
Regarding SVT and the Russian ambassador:
https://ukrainabrevet.substack.com/p/en-intervju-vi-borde-ha-sluppit
DeepStateMap from yesterday, unfortunately no Ukrainian successes this time, however the Russians have taken some plots of land:
The enemy advanced near Novoselivka, Maliivka, Ternove and Berezove.
They get potatoes
Both there and probably also during ZAPAD 😂
At the same time as I am ashamed, I believe that I am right – Europe needs a kick so that Poland was good as I wrote.
Poland should, however, be ashamed after 3 years.
Europe should also do this – take our security seriously at all?
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT WE HAVE NOT DONE THIS EARLIER???
from 205 above
Poland sends military representatives to Ukraine for training in shooting down Russian drones. Poland will send its military representatives to Ukraine for consultations and training on how to effectively shoot down Russian drones, Zelensky said on September 11th.
Zapad is starting today or did I misunderstand?
Yes, they have started!
“Large Russian military exercise initiated at NATO’s border
Early on Friday, Russia and its ally Belarus began their joint military exercise Zapad-2025, which includes exercises in the Baltic Sea and near the borders of NATO countries Poland and Lithuania.
It is unclear how many soldiers, ships, vehicles, and aircraft can participate in the exercises considering Russia’s war in Ukraine, but in previous editions of Zapad, tens of thousands have been involved. …”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage?inlagg=f7821b8b2e158535f10e0f2f28eaa1c4
Poland is acting like a prima donna right now, especially considering that there is a full-scale war going on in Ukraine.
I am VERY surprised.
The fact that Poland has zero preparation against Germany and now, NOW, is seeking help from Ukraine is completely incomprehensible.
And then they demand help from all of Europe, which is just embarrassing.
I understand that Zelensky looks tired because we are a kindergarten class to deal with.
The question is whether the Balts or Germany have prepared better…
And that was the EASY part
The difficult part is the ground battle in 2025
The next one also stands – if we now start thinking about preparing ourselves, the window will be closed for Russia in about a year.
You have seen how Poland is preparing for Zapad?
Heavy transporters with armor up towards the border – that’s just big drone targets all over.
It will be interesting to see how they group themselves
Now that ZAPAD 2025 is underway, I am presenting the results from the survey where we asked what you thought would happen, available in today’s post.
Less provocations with a drone that ended up in the “wrong” place received 49% of the votes.
Those that ended up in Poland were already there before ZAPAD so the question is if it counts. Otherwise, it is option 3 that fits best so far.
When Johan No.1 then will write that he has been right all along, remember that he voted for the last option, full-scale war with the support of China! 😉
I voted well about 50 times for the last option, can you see who voted 😶
Jokes aside, or was it a joke 🧐, I reasonably voted for option two – I must have done that?
Option one had drones in SINGULAR by the way, and Zapad has already started at least a week ago and we are now entering the “hot phase” – everyone who voted for the first option was wrong, 82 people.
The 24 who voted that nothing happened were also wrong.
What did you vote for if you can manage to be honest like this on a Friday?
So far, at least I am not wrong like the 82+24 were, I’m keeping my fingers crossed for atomic bombs in Estonia so I get it right 👍
I actually have no idea what you voted for! 😂
But the line you took then was a bit of both 2 and 5, because China was also going to join the game.
I’m not sure what to say about “Nothing happened” Zapad started today..?
I don’t participate in votes that I organize myself.
But I would probably have voted for 3 but leaning towards 1.
I think nothing much will happen, or possibly a drone provocation. The chance for the latter feels a bit higher now that they have already been in Poland, but that was not known then.
Always easy to be right if you can adjust afterwards. 😂
Masterfully written as usual Johan No.1
But… D2U closed down on August 15th.
Where did I write about D2U?
Thank you thank you FIM, you will soon be right about Gripen 👍
We get it right. No Badanka 2.0 before the Griperne close the skies.
So what’s happening? Will Ukraine be able to seriously disrupt Russian oil and/or refined products exports? Russian production (about 9.3 million barrels/day) corresponds to approximately 9 percent of the total global production (about 105 million). Russian exports (about 7.5 million) account for roughly 7 percent of global production.
According to MS copilot, 3.5 – 4 million barrels/day go through the Gulf of Finland. Slightly more via Primorsk than Ust-Luga.
If Ukraine succeeds in stopping this export, it will affect the world market price. Can they?
And will they be allowed to?
Then we have that unpleasant feedback loop. Reduced export. Higher prices.
Should one position oneself in crude oil?
If you are earning your billions now Jan W, don’t forget to send some money via Swish 😀
The USA has tried to stop Ukraine but they are not listening.
Europe presumably allows this now?
To me, it looks like Ukraine will keep the pressure on and they have cut 20% or something now?
If they just keep up the pressure, it will eventually break Russia and that was probably why Europe and the USA supported Ukraine for so long, right?
I’m pretty sour today but it’s also Friday and MXT you wrote a bit jokingly above, I caught that for sure 👍😀 but I’m joining in –
We’re really pushing everything to the limit now – “you said full war,” “you said nothing is happening.”
The most dangerous phase of the war has just begun for Ukraine no longer listens to the USA, Europe has said YES, and Ukraine’s full asymmetrical warfare has been rolled out – this seriously damages Russia.
This changed last summer and in a full war, Putin has always known that Ukraine must not seriously harm him because of the USA and Europe. The US even leaked battle plans so everything would be predictable.
Have you heard Trump’s latest statement – he thinks the drones were a mistake…
This doesn’t mean that Ukraine will roll into Moscow in October according to my prediction – just that they can now target drones in Russia as they wish (almost).
A prediction about Putin’s death might come soon by the way.
Russia can do one thing, escalate.
Do you think Putin will roll over and die now when things are heating up or do you think he will escalate?
One way is to go all in on red in Ukraine – if he enters from Belarus and Transnistria, it could get tough for Ukraine.
Another way is to try to escalate in other places without NATO jumping on him, October 7, 2023 was nice. The purpose of this is to distract us from Ukraine but he also has a plan to regain the Baltic states which is simmering and by the summer of 2026, the door is probably closed.
Secondly, is Russia a diversion for the main act which is China, yes according to Pearson’s book, which I base everything on, MENA and Russia are the diversion.
Drone attack in Poland –
Do we think Putin expected Europe to back down because of it?
No, I don’t think he expected that, now he targeted Poland and they are the biggest Russophobes in Europe after Ukraine. This was almost a Polish Pearl Harbor.
Is he hoping for a suicide by NATO?
No, he can’t reasonably expect that 😶
So, he wanted to assess Poland’s LV and also see the reaction from Europe and NATO.
This leads us to the fact that he has plans for escalation but not to the extent that we go all the way to Moscow.
Russia is an expert in subversive activities and asymmetrical warfare during full war, since 2014 they have managed to balance that line with us.
What kind of data do we think he gathered from the attack?
– Europe cannot yet shoot down Geran.
– Two weeks of Geran rain over Europe and we have shot down all our A2A robots that we would need against Russian FAB droppers.
– Operations with Geran against the Baltic states and Poland he can get away with, and that “no-fly zone” he might try again?
A bit risky because if Poland shoots down everything next time, he will look bad, but the price is if Poland threatens with it and fails to shoot down the drones – pants down.
I think we are much closer to “green men” and Estonian resistance movement than we want to believe – it should definitely come.
—
Now to part two –
The fact that Europe is not following the mission description for the units in the Baltic states should worry you all to hell.
1. Poland thinks an exercise with 40,000 + 16 NATO countries is a proportional response but no units are in the Baltic states.
2. Russia just sent in 19-23 Geran drones 370km-500km straight into Poland.
Why are there no brigades in the Baltic states?
Is Europe hoping to lure Russia into the Baltic states so we can crush them?
No, I don’t think so?
Are Europe’s defense chiefs starting to understand that the war in 2025 consists of 4500 FPV drones and 150 FAB per day and that our mechanized warfare (which is the units that will be in the Baltic states) are just big targets?
Yes, not entirely unlikely.
—
There are probably a lot of Europe’s SOF in the eastern Baltic forests now but our heavy brigades are held back for a reason.
—
Ukraine is not a problem at all, they have excelled in a full war and we have discussed it endlessly.
But now that Poland is crying like a prima donna and wants all of Europe’s LV and asks Ukraine for help with 20 drones when Ukraine has 500 drones flying over them, it’s directly embarrassing, I’m ashamed.
And the videos I’ve seen from the exercise are just one big target for FPV drones, Poland is not ready for the war of 2025 yet.
This is in line with my most pessimistic posts about Europe’s condition and the problem is as follows –
If Putin pours down from Belarus and Transnistria while keeping the pressure up on the fronts, which he can because he has not yet moved his strategic offensive reserve, will Poland come to the rescue?
I’m starting to suspect that they dare not – they have already dismissed troops in Ukraine and just showed that they have not embraced the warfare of 2025 after +3 years.
Is the rest of Europe better, I don’t think so.
—
Collapse B or A (whichever it was) has a lower probability BUT IT MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.
If we don’t in any way account for it, the risk exponentially increases that it will happen – that’s the problem.
If we leave the Baltics undefended, maybe Putin will decide to go all in on red?
Maybe there’s something we don’t know, he has threats of being ousted, China demands it to then escalate in Asia, or they misjudge everything again just like in Ukraine.
The fact that we don’t have a very broad and self-critical discussion today about why we’re not sending brigades to the Baltics or why Poland can’t handle the warfare of 2025 when we are so close to global escalation is not healthy at all.
“If we do not in any way take into account the height at all, the risk exponentially increases that it will happen – that is the problem.”
Earlier in the post you write:
“1. Poland believes that an exercise with 40,000 + 16 NATO countries is a proportionate response but no units are in the Baltics.”
Take height. Then you don’t necessarily have the height you want. But you take. How long does it take to drive troops to the Baltic eastern border, through e.g. the Suwalki Corridor, and how risky is it? Is the deployment of troops in Poland a significant step towards entering the Baltics? Are precautions being taken?
Well, it’s a smart thought 205.
What I’ve leaned towards is that Poland/Germany/others wouldn’t make it through Suwalki and definitely not by sea in case of conflict.
Suwalki is covered by forest on both sides and there are Russian forces on both sides.
The entire width is within FPV drone range and then RU has remote mines.
What we’ve seen from Poland now as they prepare for the exercise is vehicle convoys.
We know that vehicle convoys are just targets today.
Yes – if the forces come in BEFORE Russia strikes, then it’s fine.
Trying to break through Suwalki would be a bloodbath.
Today in 2025, you have to be on site.
The one from Zapad was quite funny 🤣🤣🤣
“The second stage will focus on “restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and crushing the enemy, including with the participation of a coalition group of forces from friendly states”, the ministry said.”
By the way, the exercise is close to Poland’s border in part and not far from the border as Lukashenko promised.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-belarus-start-military-exercise-near-nato-border-after-drone-incursion-2025-09-12/
There is, however, something that can speak against China’s hand behind what is happening now. I think they have time on their side. Their relative military strength is increasing as time goes by. They would probably benefit from waiting a while before initiating direct combat actions that could risk involving the West. USA militarily and Europe economically.
Not in Europe but China probably has its own ideas about Asia.
Russia is the war in Europe that locks us up in Europe and preferably it will probably be an open wound/cold war below the level that NATO declares war.
Russia must act before summer 2026 if they want to “win” this which they will not do but they have two choices – roll over and die under the UA drone cloud or try to escalate and hope for a win.
China has already declared economic war against the USA and they were directly dismissive towards Europe when Von Der Leyen was there + that they will open their swift now to bypass the dollar.
Then China has entered Venezuela with drones, money, warships, robots and other things to make them a strategic partner.
They must also understand that the USA has declared war for less?
My money is probably on the USA firing the first shot unless China beats them to it with Taiwan.
When in time, well, no one knows yet 😀
The strange thing is that the USA has started discussing reduced presence and commitment in Asia. Talk about withdrawing troops from South Korea, among other things. I don’t think any decisions have been made yet, but it’s a bit surprising.
Admittedly in line with America first, but goes against driving a hard line against China.
I wonder if it won’t be China that will eventually attack China.
What 😶
Have I completely missed.
Is the USA completely giving up here?
No, not as far as Walk Over but a slight decrease in attendance. Let’s see what comes of it.
What the hell, that wouldn’t be great at all.
Agree with you Johan, that China aims to take control over the eastern part of Asia.
Russia has them on a leash, and they keep Europe occupied.
USA has Trump, with all that it entails of domestic tensions, and if China can also help fuel the conflict in Venezuela, then USA is kept on its side.
My respect for Ukraine is increasing exponentially every week now – they are the only adults in the room.
Imagine where we would be today if they had collapsed and been run over by Russia 🧐
True, I completely agree with you there.
If they had fallen early (and even if they were to fall now), the security situation would be completely different and we would probably have seen Russia enter the Baltics or possibly Moldova/Romania after they had gathered themselves.
I find absolutely nothing about the Baltic Fleet, has it left port or not?
Finding very little beyond exercises in Belarus.
Searching for Zapad, Baltic, Baltic Fleet, Belarus, and so on.
Do you have any tips on who covers this, our usual open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources do not focus on it and MUST refuses to answer when I call 😡
At least our incident preparedness has now encountered Russian aircraft.
Hear ye – anyone who has information on whether Putin or generals have gone to bunkers or not?
Read a text about Putin’s all bunkers in case of a nuclear war. However, the reality is probably that if he starts such a war and survives it, he will be a “dead man walking”.
And. He must reasonably expect that.
Since there are at least three Putins and he has all the bunkers, the chance of him surviving is quite high anyway if we don’t figure out immediately who the real one is?
MXT – was it a refinery or not, hasn’t made a big impact on Twitter?
You mentioned Lukoil in Smolensk, dare we add it to the list?
I perceive it as a dip and not the riff.
Ok, good then I won’t update the list.
Or that was not good at all of course but right should be right
Well, one was a bit disappointed.
But justice should prevail! 👍
Lyman is starting to be in a bad position now.
Short question to the thread –
Now many are saying that Russia is on the decline, right?
When Trump tried to negotiate a ceasefire, Europe wanted it and Zelensky too.
But Putin refused.
If Russia is on the verge of collapse, why didn’t they agree to a ceasefire?
Because Putin knows that he can squeeze a few more years out of Russia (we misjudge the Russians and think they will get tired) Then he has surely received guarantees from China (while we in the West still imagine that China is pragmatic and prefers to end the war to get “back in business”) but last but not least, if he accepts a peace that is not a clear win for Russia, he knows he is done.
He would accept a peace if it happens entirely on Russia’s terms. The four regions, Ukraine with limited military and no external troops when it comes to security guarantees and a ban on joining NATO + an end to sanctions and preferably also Zelenskyy’s resignation.
Then he can sell it as a victory without losing face.
The aggressive Russian propaganda has led to the Russians not settling for less.
So it’s actually the same reasoning that we have had for a few years now. He cannot stop fighting without a victory, no matter how bad it looks.
I think you are absolutely right, and that’s usually where we end up after discussions 😀
Do I have the right? 😂
🤣
If Putin achieves a victory he is satisfied with, the war will continue elsewhere.
If Putin disappears, the war will end, and a new leader will blame everything on Putin.
If the war ends with a loss, Putin will disappear in one way or another.
As long as Putin is in power or alive, Russia will continue to wage war. He has put the country in a state of war, and without a major victory, he cannot transition back to peace.
That’s correct!👍
Welcome to Zapad-Friday-Party.
I find zero so not much to add at all about Zapad so today we’re talking about Mars.
The red sandy planet which, unlike the gray moon, was completely evenly red with black space behind.
That’s what I grew up with.
Now today in 2025, there is a white North Pole on Mars covered in snow, there is water, there is possible microbiological life, and it’s windy on Mars because there is some kind of atmosphere that is deadly to try to breathe in, admittedly.
They find a lot of interesting things in the Mars photographs and UFO enthusiasts believe in past civilizations that have died out. Some things are a bit hard to explain like 90-degree angles for example, but others are like past plant life maybe like corals that are petrified?
I’m wondering if “desertification” could work like that?
Our deserts were once covered in forests, right?
We’ve had a global ice age, toxic seas, more desert and less desert. Also very large trees once upon a time and dinosaurs.
What suggests that Mars has been a rainforest and had Aztec civilizations?
What suggests that Mars has always looked like it does now?
The better the images, the more colorful planets we see and “two trillion galaxies” with hundreds of millions of stars and planets in each.
You always get an imprint during upbringing about something and for me, space was empty, there were planets with sand/dust that were gray, and everything was dead.
Everything was black and white for the images and movies we saw were black and white – even the moon is a colorful little thing 😶
This whole journey we’re on now where we’ve discovered millions of planets that could have life is huge for me, it takes my breath away and makes me quickly smoke a cigarette to come back down.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_237601.htm
Read about something going on from NATO, does that sound sensible?
How soon and exactly what is the important thing?
Then Putin’s schedule just got even tighter 😀
AI interceptor drones are in progress but not yet?
Have that also for next summer when the Geran threat is neutralized.
Ah, that realization of the universe’s fantastic infinity and strange mysteries takes me back to the early teens.
Well, in our teens, space was dark, black, and empty, right? Or have you tricked me and you are 27 🧐
😂 No, I was a bit of a space nerd back then (and probably still am).
Ever since 1877 when Schiaparelli thought he saw canals on Mars and sparked discussions about another civilization, space has been fascinating!
That was when one lived there with insignificant light pollution so one could lie in a snowdrift and look at the Milky Way, and one didn’t see many satellites passing by either.
Ah, remember the exercises in Marma in late autumn. Zero light pollution, got lost the ten meters to the fireplace when it was pitch black.
The night sky and the Milky Way were absolutely fantastic.
I’m from Stockholm and was never sober during my teens, didn’t see anything 😭
Well done comrade, Putin will be pleased.
Wow, I thought it was a direct message 😶
Nepal
Discord is now the parliament of Nepal: the largest server with over 100 thousand participants decides who will lead the country
😱Admins have already held talks with the military and nominated a candidate for interim leader – former Chief Justice Sushila Karki;
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1966520712912384055?s=46
😱Among the admins are schoolchildren, and some of them graduated literally this year;
😱Their discussions and decisions on the server are now quoted by the largest media in Nepal;
😱Moderators are simultaneously fighting off calls for violence, trolls and foreign users.
Nepal went from zero to a hundred in one day.
Transsect: non-multigendered insect identifying as the opposite sex. Praying mantis, sir, in female attire.
MXT posted something that completely passed me by that the USA also intends to withdraw from Asia.
Ah, don’t withdraw, just reduce its presence!
In the logic of a contemporary concert, it would be reasonable for the United States to allow Russia to permanently seize Ukrainian territory to prevent what Moscow sees as a threat to regional security. It would make sense for the United States to remove “military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the China Coast Guard executing fewer patrols,” as the scholar Andrew Byers proposed in 2024, shortly before Trump appointed him deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia. A concert mindset would even leave open the idea that the United States would stand aside if China decided to take control of Taiwan. In return, Trump would expect Beijing and Moscow to remain on the sidelines as he threatened Canada, Greenland, and Panama.
Foreign Affairs, The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition: Trump’s New Spheres of Influence, Stacie E. Goddard, May/June 2025
In the logic of a contemporary concert, it would be reasonable for the United States to allow Russia to permanently seize Ukrainian territory to prevent what Moscow sees as a threat to regional security. It would make sense for the United States to remove “military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the China Coast Guard executing fewer patrols,” as the scholar Andrew Byers proposed in 2024, shortly before Trump appointed him deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia. A concert mindset would even leave open the idea that the United States would stand aside if China decided to take control of Taiwan. In return, Trump would expect Beijing and Moscow to remain on the sidelines as he threatened Canada, Greenland, and Panama.
Foreign Affairs, The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition: Trump’s New Spheres of Influence, Stacie E. Goddard, May/June 2025
Yes.
It is very worrying that the above is a model that explains in principle 100% of the Trump regime’s actions and rhetoric.
To reduce their presence both in Europe and in Asia means that they are strengthening at home, under the heading “focus on defense of ‘the homeland'”… so increased focus on so-called “defense” while renaming to Department of War… we’ll see when reports come out that the mounted police have attacked across the border and the USA must defend itself…?
Yes, that was really reassuring…Not.
But as Flurrevuppen points out, it probably explains a lot.
China gets Asia, Russia Europe, the USA North and South America, it’s probably a deal Trump and the others would agree to.
Have people stopped with Friday Booze™ 🥳 now that the vacation is over? For me, it will be a glass of Don Pepin cocktail. Insanely good.
Seems like cowards
Well, a little Whisky with Ice and an Obolon should be okay, unlike when one was young, one is tired on Friday nights nowadays.
Well, a little gap in timing only.
On Monday, there will be a sour post about Poland but after noting our reluctance to escalate, and Russia’s presumed reluctance to trigger article 5, I have come to a conclusion that is still in line with the Baltic states and the main track under NATO mission.
Our current major power struggle with the Russian devils may only turn into a high-intensity SOF war in the forests of eastern Baltics.
We already have quite a bit of capability sneaking around there as MUST has marked on the map for me, and Russia will try with Estonian partisans and green men.
We will not send in our mechanized brigades, and Russia will not be able to fully invade.
So maybe it will be thousands of SOF with drone support cutting each other’s throats in the forests?
Both Europe and Russia deny because no one wants to trigger article 5 😀
The Russians have their ingenious “SOF” which is well 3500 pieces?
They have FSB, GRU, SVR special forces
Military Spetznaz and some other stuff like gugi and some special forces in Kaliningrad that are still there.
old wagner in different units.
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Our equivalent is at least as high in numbers if we pool together what we have in Europe + suitable capabilities from the Foreign Legion.
No, no… Everyone wants to go to heaven but no one wants to die.
Yet it all ends with the nuclear weapons having to speak for themselves because it feels so distant.
Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.
Then we all turn into radioactive shrimps like an old punk band in the neighboring village was called.
The question is whether Europe can achieve the same air supremacy over Iran as Israel did? Or at least that we have the ability to do what Ukraine should have done a long time ago, bomb RU’s economy.
I think this is a part that hasn’t been talked about much when discussing what the war in 2025 looks like.
Regarding the drones in Poland, I believe as usual that it’s wrong to think that there is ONE reason, usually in analyses people want to find “the reason”. In reality, you weigh pros and cons on two different scales and see which way it tips and by how much.
One major reason (which I haven’t seen anyone mention, but I haven’t read everything) I think is that RU wants to make Europe hesitate about sending weapons to Ukraine. Who can blame Poland in this situation if they want to strengthen their air defense and not send to Ukraine? Didn’t a boat with weapons promised to Ukraine go to Israel as a result of October 7th? This is something that could indicate that RU only wants to make Europe nervous, not angry.