Now Zapad 25 is over and it was a Russian attempt at force posture –
-Iskander in Kaliningrad
-exercise with tactical nuclear weapons.
-exercise with battle 2025 which includes drones, robots, and FAB with a small mobile ground force. Also, motorcycles and beach buggies were used.
-The Northern Fleet is out and about, and the Baltic Fleet has been as well, even though I can’t find any information about it.
Poland’s counter-exercise has been mechanized units moving as large FPV targets and failing to shoot down a ridiculously small number of drones.
Some comments on the exercise.
Guardian
Finland
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/15/7530974
CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/15/europe/us-observes-russia-belarus-wargames-intl-latam
Kiev Independent
As a happy amateur sitting in my parents’ basement playing Rise of Nations, I would like to claim that today force posture is not a large park of mechanized vehicles and fighter jets.
It is a three-dimensional palette of warfare with fully integrated drone weapons, robots, aircraft, light battalions, some tanks, some mechanized units, and a digital battlefield.
Russia tried their best to project this onto Zapad 25, and even though no other observers were present besides two Americans, apparently all our media in Europe were invited and willingly wrote their articles.
But it signals that they have understood it after three long years.
What happens now?
17 cut undersea cables in the Red Sea and 50 drones towards Poland suggest that more is coming. Above all, it suggests that China is not as afraid as all the experts claim since they have allowed the operation against Poland.
Mid-September is a bit early for Operation Turn Off the Lights against Europe maybe, a month or two more?
Raspusitza is around the corner, so Russian or Ukrainian mechanized falls will slow down a bit, but in November, things should liven up again.
Both parties have now brought forward their mechanized units, and both parties have a lot of capability saved up – this we have written about often and for a long time.
What Russia has not shown us yet is its offensive strategic reserve – and they have it if you have read the posts.
According to Zelensky, Ukraine has “100 tank battalions,” which one should probably interpret as a hundred mechanized battalions, a mosaic of tanks, IFVs, APCs, self-propelled guns, and Humvee-type vehicles.
But if they get rolling, it probably won’t stop, and why did Zelensky bring this up now?
Russia intends to escalate, so increased sabotage against Europe and the Baltics with “little green men” in the Baltics is probably not far off.
And Russia has already tried to build an active resistance movement in the country, I discovered, even though it may not have been at the level I described, so let’s disregard that.
https://tvpworld.com/86944848/estonia-says-russia-backed-armed-group-aimed-to-overthrow-govt
Ukraine always has its offensive plan, and conditions might be favorable for it in late autumn.
We also need to make sure to eliminate everything that has previously hindered their capabilities – the West’s constant betrayals because they no longer care.
If Ukraine now engages in drone warfare as they wish, they will also fight on the ground as they desire.
The northern front, Belarus, Azov thrust, and grind on in the flytraps.
We should also not be far from concern in Russia, as it is part of Ukraine’s asymmetric warfare.
High risk as usual, and the West probably does not intend to improve the odds, unfortunately, but Ukraine keeps pushing with what they have.
The Baltics accompany Poland and apparently do not take this seriously yet; I am too tired of this now to get upset any longer.
A section of drainage ditch now dug, the rest completed sometime in 2027 😐
Can one exempt themselves from Article 5 by doing nothing?
A bit of criticism of Poland’s efforts below, not just me giving them a failing grade 🧐
Zelensky was not lenient towards Poland, a bit embarrassing when they were supposed to get vindication for 1939 and end up in this fiasco, bruised self-esteem again?
As a side project on my journey to becoming the world president, I am trying to understand how to unite against an external threat like Russia, and my observations so far are not particularly uplifting.
The USA has never been united, they have just pursued some kind of glorified democracy defense as a way to enrich themselves since the end of WW2, and they joined in when they could no longer avoid it.
I believe that globally, countries are like a group project in school – one works, and four slack off.
But it surprises me greatly that the Baltic states and Poland would do this – I thought Poland was more proactive.
Post-war, we may need to divide Europe into interest groups, and those who wish can solve the shell protection, and then that interest group must try to push the EU for resources as best they can – there is probably no other way.
The UK needs to return to the EU, and Canada is welcome to join us; they seem to have burned bridges with Trump.
JEF is probably not a bad group, and we take care of the shell protection to the east together with Ukraine, as some blogger has suggested for a long time, who then, let me hear it – who then?
Our pals in Asia need something similar, and someone needs to explain to me why Australia is not brimming with military bases from Europe and the USA.
We don’t need our heavy ships in the Baltic Sea, and the Arctic fleet will barely leave port before it is sunk considering the distance to Finland and the presence of robots, so we should be able to spare quite a lot for Asia?
We simply turn Australia into one large naval and air base, and from there, we launch our reconquest of Southeast Asia one island at a time.
I have a completely sensational new idea that I came up with, which I have named “island-hopping” – taking one island at a time and working forward, and when we reach the mainland by air, we drop a big bomb on China to scare them and make them give up. What do you think of this revolutionary idea?
Do you think we can start with Macau, or is that too ambitious – we do want to snatch all the casinos, I think?
Now, everyone defending Europe should soon have interceptor drones, so Russian drones are no longer a threat. I think Mark Rutte hinted at something about “new experimental technology” in his panic press conference after the most anticipated escalation this side of the new year, which apparently caught them completely off guard – they are all asleep at work just like me 😶
Everyone is missing that Ukraine already has the technology with AI interceptor drones, and much still gets through – they are hitting around 80% of targets now.
Rutte has made it sound like NATO will now introduce full “deniability of movement” in the airspace above Poland, which is nonsense, but maybe it’s to calm fears that they are spreading some emergency lies?
The only thing Poland should have done was to go to Ukraine and propose that they join a no-fly zone over western Ukraine in exchange for assistance. UA would have agreed to it because it’s positive PR for them.
Then Ukraine would have put in some extra effort to shoot down everything heading towards Poland as a gesture of thanks.
Over the past two weeks, Russia has deployed quite an impressive number of drones and robots over Ukraine – how do you think Poland would fare against that onslaught when the A2A robots run out of ammunition in a week?
Five thousand targets engaged?
China has better technology than us, and greater capacity to scale up, so Russia will have this defense against Ukrainian drones long before Europe has it against Russian drones.
RU has already showcased the laser weapons they have acquired and they certainly have interceptor drones.
“but Russia is much larger,” yes, that’s true, but Russian ships are lined up along our coasts like a string of pearls, so it will probably even out IF it comes to that.
As long as Ukraine can operate freely in Russia, Russia will be able to operate freely in our territory – more or less.
My conclusion here is that Ukraine has decided to reignite the strategic drone warfare because they know that the window for extremely high returns with minimal effort will soon close.
The second point is that Trump’s job was to try to delay it until China had the new LV protection in place. You might remember the discussion about having a ceasefire only in the air that both Putin and Trump tried to push for a while before giving up 😀
If Europe manages to force Ukraine to pause it once again, there might not be another opportunity after that, and they will have to combat things that sting, so it’s a risk we simply cannot take.
Then UA would have to resort to land-based sabotage operations, but it’s infinitely easier to send a swarm of drones that are not shot down.
They probably stopped somewhere around here the last time they were at it, and it was a slow start for them with the whole concept, a lot of complaints from Europe and the USA. Zelensky himself mentioned red cards after they droned the oil depot near Novorossiysk in 2023.
It ended earlier because Putin used backchannels and talked the West out of it – it was extremely suspicious before the Kursk offensive when RU called the US Secretary of Defense if you remember.
Then it was probably a completely unintentional jackpot because the USA most likely responded with “no, nothing is happening, we would have known,” so Putin fell asleep and then it hit, and he fell out of the little crib.
We can only hope for “no more” – and that’s probably mainly because Ukraine doesn’t care, as half of Europe will most likely demand at least that after a couple of Russian drone attacks with warheads instead of just extra gasoline that they can’t shoot down.
19 liberation attacks since August 2, 2025, on refineries, by the way, this is at the highest pace and on par with the most intense periods earlier in the war. And this is only the refineries, not everything around them, so 2025 is the highest level we’ve seen in the war so far.
If Ukraine keeps this up and adds new refineries as they go, RU will eventually run out of that crucial part they absolutely need.
And Western sanctions seem to be working now, after the 21st package 🧐
Ukraine also drones LNG and oil export terminals since refined products haven’t been exported for a while now.
Then they drone pipelines and pump stations for oil, LNG, and refined products, as well as depots for all three.
Altogether, they are hitting the entire chain now, and southern Russia has been running on fumes for 1.5 months.
There’s no indication that they can’t continue and drain all of Russia – they have the drones, and the targets don’t move.
They haven’t targeted the oil fields yet, and there’s no need to set them on fire for them to be out of commission.
When they drone away the Yamal cross – then we’ll know that all barriers have been lifted, “Be Gone Yamal Cross 💥💥✊”
The only variable is if Russia manages to get competent LV from China to their refineries, but then the race starts again, and Ukraine will first use kamikaze drones against this new LV and then engage the targets again.
You can rest assured that as soon as it starts getting cold, Ukraine will also target power production and distribution with the same intensity as we are seeing now with fossil fuels.
A heavy drone robot in about thirty substations can probably work wonders in Moscow when it starts getting really cold.
If Ukraine is allowed to continue this drone campaign this time, they will cripple Russia.
But that won’t win the war, so tomorrow’s post will be about how the war is won, so you’ll have the roadmap ready👍
On Substack – there’s still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying subscribers. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 will make you healthier too👍
Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always warmly received, and there’s a QR code for that purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have expenses, and there’s also a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and worth donating to.
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Russian losses in the war in Ukraine 2025-09-18:
SLAVA UKRAINI
Out of 184 reported total number of battles, all were distributed as follows. It can be noted the continued strong pressure in Donetsk.
👍
Thank you Johan, interesting about drone warfare, drone defense, arms race, Poland, Europe, China.
“The only variable is whether Russia receives competent LV from China to its refineries but then the race starts again and Ukraine first uses kamikaze drones against this new LV and then targets them again.”
How would a no-fly zone affect drone warfare? Today, the only things flying over the front are drones and the occasional missile. Are these covered by the no-fly zone and how can this be enforced in a different way than what Ukraine is already doing today (intercept drones primarily against drones and Patriot/ equivalent against missiles). Is the no-fly zone the previous war? Compare Libya.
Relevant question!
I think it all depends on how it is implemented.
1. Just implementing a no-fly zone without helping to enforce it practically would simply mean toothless signaling politics without real value.
2. If Europe helps to enforce it in the western parts, it would of course ease things a bit for Ukraine. If the plan is to let fighter jets patrol the skies to shoot down Shaheds, it would probably be extremely cost-inefficient, but good training for the pilots and possibly an aha moment when realizing that it is not sustainable. The alternative would be to group different types of air defense inside the border, but then we would need to send in troops to handle it. That probably won’t happen.
But even if we just let aircraft patrol inside Ukraine, it would be a big step in the right direction and an even stronger signaling policy. We would then cross a red line in the right direction. If we have let go of that barrier, we will dare to go further.
3. What would be effective is if a no-fly zone was implemented AND there was readiness to help enforce it over the ENTIRE Ukraine.
In the north and northwest, it would not matter, but if we sent aircraft to the fronts in the east and south, it would effectively stop the Russians’ flights. They need to enter Ukraine’s border to reach and shoot down KAB. It would probably cease completely.
Additionally, it would be possible to help intercept the larger, more advanced reconnaissance drones.
It would make a big difference, not just to relieve or as a signaling policy, but for real.
(But unfortunately, that is probably not what, for example, Poland wants, they probably just want to make sure they don’t have to deal with more drones coming in.)
“They need to go over Ukraine’s border to reach and shoot down KAB. It would probably cease completely.”
Yes, a big step if the no-fly zone applies to the WHOLE of Ukraine including Crimea…
Interesting and good from Johan no 1. Again. Thanks also to MXT and 205 for all the work you put in. Johan wonders why no American or European base has been established in Australia. It’s incomprehensible. During WW2, Transatlantic, with its dynamic leader Gunnar Carlsson and resourceful crews on 5 ships, saved the day for the Allies. War materials from the US to Australia. Wool back that was used for military clothing, among other things. I have written about this before. Now Transatlantic is no more, and Swedish seafarers have disappeared. I’m not good with computers – can’t link, for example, but if you go to “Transatlantic residential foundation/expansion & world war,” you will find a picture of how the planes were loaded. Also, note the makeshift gangway used to move forward and inspect the lashings. The “Båtologen,” a maritime nostalgic magazine, still has a few copies left of issue 3 2021, where a very good summary is provided. Plus, many pictures. Some ships had so many planes on deck that a “flying bridge” had to be built on top of the bridge. It’s a shame that no journalist has delved into this somewhat incredible story. Everything is available in the Transarchive, Gothenburg.
Thank you too 205.
The country in the whole world with the best defense against drones is Ukraine.
NO ONE can shoot down more than them.
So Mark Rutte’s waving of flags and harsh words are probably pointless – Russia will likely just test it to embarrass Poland again 😀
Israel and Ukraine probably have a strategy to pick up threatening targets and let others through, then drones change course all the time so it’s hard to know.
What should be done is to knock out the factories and launch pads.
As MXT writes – probably the most important thing is to integrate world-leading Ukraine in it.
I agree with you, Johan, disappointed in Poland.
I understand that farmers may feel threatened by allowing Ukraine into the EU, but the threat from Russia should be much greater, so they should wait to argue about the problems and the question of EU membership until after the war is over. Until then, they should do everything they can to facilitate for Ukraine and the Ukrainians. They have been causing trouble at the border, causing huge queues with their blockades, destroying grain by emptying trains, etc. They seem almost as hostile towards the Ukrainians as they are towards the Russians.
You have a point that there may be a window of time when it becomes significantly more difficult for Ukraine to seize the refineries and perhaps even the larger depots. At the same time, only Ukraine has the capacity to produce enough drones, etc., there are many more targets to hit.
The fact that they haven’t done even more than they actually have done, I therefore take as a sign that they are at their maximum capacity and that we will probably see some shorter pauses. It is also not impossible that Russia has managed to knock out some of the production, unfortunately, it seems that there are too many in Ukraine who are willing to sell their souls to Russia and help reveal important targets. It is not impossible that this may have been a reason for the attacks being interrupted.
Ukraine never tells when Russia hits military targets, but we can probably be quite sure that it happens now and then. The Russians may seem stupid, but if they catch wind of high-value targets, it is clear that they will also go after them and not just civilians as well as energy and infrastructure.
I think it may be the case that they are targeting civilian targets simply to saturate Ukraine’s air defense and force them to allocate resources to protect cities, etc., which means that the protection for factories and military facilities does not get all the protection they would need.
But when it comes to attacks on refineries, Russia does not need to deploy ground forces at every refinery, etc., if they receive massive assistance from China. It is enough for them to set up countermeasures at the border.
Poland, Hungary, Romania just want to benefit from the EU.
Spain and Portugal wanted that too and they are still draining.
Somewhere you have to draw a damn line and when we have St. George and the dragon with us, the Poles, Hungarians, and others can’t complain as much.
Ukraine are legends and the rest should keep quiet.
—
The problem if you show up at the border is probably that Ukraine will knock you out?
But if you have a little harder time at a depth, then I thought 😀
—
Well, Ukraine probably has the highest possible intensity now.
King Charles III of the United Kingdom, during a joint dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump, called on allies to unite in support of Ukraine. He emphasized the need to act together to stop Russian tyranny and aggression.
“Today, as tyranny once again threatens Europe, we and our allies stand together in support of Ukraine to deter aggression and ensure peace,” the King said.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump nodded in response to his words.
Well done by Charles, then I suspect he didn’t manage to influence Trump in the slightest.
One can notice that Trump’s head, just shortly after nodding, tilts slightly to the side. It tilts as if unconsciously:
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1968555149472723030?s=46
The head tilts upwards:
1:
2:
Some psychologist might take a look at that and see what it could mean.. 😄
ZAPAD 2025
The exercise is now concluded, summarizing here how it went with the survey and some other reflections.
ZAPAD 2025 was officially conducted on 12-16 Sept. and based on that, the option that came in third place with 24 votes (14%) won. The option that stated that nothing special will happen.
If we consider that it actually started at the beginning of September when troops and equipment began to arrive (which Johan believes is more accurate), instead, the option that most people voted for won, stating that there will be fewer provocations. 82 voted for that option (49%).
The option with the second most votes, 41 votes (24%), where Russia challenges NATO, never occurred. (Johan, was it you who cast all 41 votes?)
Both options, positions 1 and 3, imply that the exercise would not result in any really serious hostilities from Russia. 106 out of 168 voted for these two options together.
So, all of you who voted have together made a really good assessment! 👍
Of course, this does not mean (as Johan is pointing out today) that the danger is over.
Even though I personally do not believe that Russia intends to open a new front before the war in Ukraine is settled, I could be wrong, and it might still happen. So, this is something we must continue to prepare for!
But we should NOT prepare so much that we reduce our assistance to Ukraine.
That is exactly what Russia wants.
Our best defense is to ensure that Ukraine crushes Russia.
Result:
DeepStateMap, unfortunately only small successes for the Russians.
“The enemy advanced near Kindrashivka, Stepova Novosilka and Novoivanivka.”
Russia touts gains on all fronts as Zelensky warns of 2 more Moscow’s offensives after 3 failures. Over the summer months, the Russian army has failed to secure any front-line breakthroughs or capture a single major Ukrainian city, with its main efforts concentrated in Donetsk Oblast.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-touts-gains-on-all-fronts-as-zelensky-warns-of-2-more-moscows-offensives-after-3-failures/
Russia’s highest-ranking military officer toured front-line positions in Ukraine on Sept. 17 and claimed Moscow’s forces were advancing on all fronts, with the heaviest fighting around the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, Russia’s Defense Ministry said.
General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of staff of the armed forces, noted that troops were making progress in Donetsk, as well as further west in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
“Our troops in the zone of the special military operation are advancing in practically all directions,” the ministry quoted Gerasimov as saying.
The Kyiv Independent cannot immediately verify these claims.
The Russian army has been unable to secure any front line breakthroughs or capture a single major city, with overall Russian advances during the three summer months limited to an estimated 0.3% of Ukrainian territory. Russia’s main efforts have been concentrated in Donetsk Oblast.
Gerasimov also said Russian forces were making progress near Kupiansk in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and in Yampil, further east.
Ukrainian officials, however, paint a different picture. President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking in a Sept. 16 interview with Sky News, said Russia had failed in its last three offensives and was now preparing two more large-scale campaigns.
“They are preparing for two more offensive operations in the fall,” Zelensky said. “There were already three of them, and ahead… there are two more heavy offensive campaigns.”
“On the whole, I am truly pleased that the last three Russian offensive drives have failed, though they are planning two more serious offensives,” he added. “In my view, this is an important signal.”
Since November 2022, Moscow has gained less than 1% of additional Ukrainian territory, despite its 2025 summer offensive advancing at one of the fastest rates since late 2024.
The limited progress contrasts with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported aim of capturing the entire Donbas by the end of 2025. According to Reuters, Putin believes his forces are “winning” despite minimal gains.
Zelensky attributed Russian setbacks to manpower and equipment losses.
“They lost because there were a large number of casualties among the personnel and a large number of lost equipment,” he said. “What I said to the Europeans and what I said in the White House… the Russians will not be able to take our east.”
Unfortunately down to 64%.
How are all the promises to send more LV to Ukraine going?
Unfortunately, it also doesn’t seem like Ukraine’s AntiShahed drones have had any decisive effectiveness.
Of course, it could be due to several reasons, that they don’t quite measure up, that they can’t produce enough of them in time, or that they are not autonomous and the pilots have not become skilled enough yet.
Really hoping that they can increase the effectiveness.
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian military shot down 48 out of 75 🇷🇺Russian UAVs”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lz3ravbync2e
Not good.
The Russian sabotage activity is thriving.
It will only increase until the war in Ukraine is over. Of course, it is not enough for the war to be over; Ukraine also needs to defeat Russia. If we want to avoid sabotage, the best way is to ensure that it happens, preferably as soon as possible.
“Wave of sabotage against mobile towers and fiber cables – ‘Raw vandalism’
Digital infrastructure in Sweden has been subjected to a large number of sabotage acts this year.”
https://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/vag-av-sabotage-mot-mobilmaster-och-fiberkablar-ra-skadegorelse/4391878
😄 Now the ads started playing again, eight exactly the same in a row at the bottom of the page.
By the way, how do you experience the ads now, is it bearable, can you live with it, or should I try more adjustments?
No problem. You get used to it. Even when they appear as pop-ups above the editing menu when adding a new post.
One thing that is annoying is that the publish button sometimes frequently stops working and the only way to publish is to copy the content of the post, reload the page, and paste the content into a new post. Then the button works again.
Yes, on mobile it’s really annoying when it pops up while you’re editing, but I can’t find any direct ad settings to prevent that. It would be to kill all pop-ups in that case.
So you still have issues with publishing, how often does it happen?
Is it like every other time or more like every tenth time?
Is it on mobile or computer (or both)?
By the way, does anyone else have this type of problem?
Always drive mobile. Barely opened the computer in two years. Yes, it probably happens more often than every tenth time but not as often as every other time. Maybe every seventh. Or turn it around: usually works. Haven’t seen patterns but can suspect causes such as: one or more comments that can be edited (since there is a JavaScript update of the link), or that there are images in the comment (often works without problems).
Well, the editing capability could potentially be a problem. If you have many going on, there are some spins happening that might stop and potentially clog up, but it shouldn’t affect regular publishing in my opinion. If editing was impossible, it would have felt more obvious.
I assume you’ve tried waiting a few seconds and then tried clicking publish again?
By the way, it’s impressive how you manage to put together your long posts on mobile!
I mostly use mobile outside of working hours, but I haven’t encountered that problem.
It’s always hopeless to troubleshoot when you can’t recreate it yourself (or when it’s something that happens very rarely), so I have no idea how to proceed with that.
“Meanwhile in Orenburg, I don’t yet know what’s been hit, but a heavy column of smoke is rising. The drone alert there was only issued an hour ago. It’s approximately 1,000km from the border with Ukraine.”
I also read the other day that the Baltic drainage ditch won’t be ready until 2027?!?!? 🤯
They should asap introduce “The Big Dig Day” when every Baltic, from mini excavator to shovel, shows up and digs the crap out in 24 hours.
Great idea! Big digging day!
Everything is going way too slow. Not just when it comes to digging ditches, it’s pretty much everything.
Now some Finnish citizen will correct me with a roar and a scream, but for me, before the Winter War started, the Finns used the time from summer to November to fell logs, clear shooting fields, and move rocks in the forests to create a defensive line.
In addition to bunkers with wooden roofs and firing positions.
That the Balts had not built this in over three years is, to me, negligence bordering on suicidal.
Johan, can you confirm this on your maps? And where are they heading?
Russian troops start leaving Belarus after Zapad-2025 drills, Ukraine says.
“I can’t say right now that they (Russian troops) have all left Belarus, but I hope they will continue moving in the right direction,” Ukraine State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-start-leaving-belarus-after-zapad-2025-drills-ukraine-says
Free Ukraine writes about Kupiansk, which is in line with what we have previously written here. It simply doesn’t look good unless more resources are soon deployed.
As Johan has written several times, one absolutely does not want the Russians on the wrong side of the Oskil. If they establish themselves there, they can continue to clear downwards on the western side, and then Ukraine loses a perfect natural defense line. Additionally, even Kupiansk itself is something one should not want to lose; the city itself, of course, functions as a strong defensive point.
This is something that the AFU must also realize. If a strong counterattack does not come soon, I am afraid one will have to conclude that there simply isn’t enough to send to meet the Russians.
“In Kupjansk, unfortunately, things look quite bleak right now. After Russian raids northwest of the city were repelled at the end of August, the Russians have advanced all the way to the center of Kupjansk over the past two weeks. The Russian advancement is carried out by small groups of 2-3 men who hide in apartment buildings and basements at times. Some of them even dress in civilian clothes to avoid being picked off by Ukrainian kamikaze drones or artillery. Leading the way are Russian infantry groups that seem to function mostly as sacrificial lambs with no chance of survival. Following them are more professional Russian units that frequently use camouflage ponchos that lack heat signatures.
They also make frequent use of drones. Part of the Russian movement involved a group of 70 soldiers traveling 13 km through a gas pipeline and emerging at Radkivka. There, they had set up a large defense as a rallying point. However, this gas pipeline story did not turn out to be the great success portrayed in Russian propaganda, as when they emerged from the pipeline, they were essentially ambushed by Ukrainian forces, resulting in significant losses, with some surrendering and becoming prisoners of war. Currently, an estimated 100-150 Russian soldiers are believed to be in Kupjansk. In Kupjansk, up to 830 civilians are estimated to persist, refusing to be evacuated.
Therefore, the situation in Kupjansk does not look promising, but we will see what countermeasures are taken. It is entirely possible that by launching an attack north of Kupjansk, the Russians who have entered the city can be cut off. However, it is unclear if there are available resources for that.”
[Link to the source article](https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/1968582603881038149)
💥🔥👍✊ Seems to be another hit at an oil refinery!!
These attacks could end up being what determines the war in Ukraine. It will cost China too much to support Russia if their economy crashes completely.
“According to Russian sources, two aircraft-type drones struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan. A key oil refining unit has reportedly been hit.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lz3x5yav4k27
That AVT looks fried!
Perfect, with a bit of luck it may take several months to replace it with a new one!
“Footage confirms a large fire at the AVT-4.. one of the key installations at the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lz3xyv3r4k27
Update: It seems to be about the same raff as above, apparently there are several in the same region.
There may be one more, but this will have to go as RUMINT for now. Apparently, there is a small red box on FIRMS and that may be what triggered the rumor, but unfortunately it is not uncommon for regular operations to show activity. But we keep our fingers crossed!
“🔥Special Operations Forces struck the Volgograd Refinery On the night of September 18, 2025 in the Volgograd region of the Russian Federation. The Volgograd Refinery is involved in supplying the enemy’s armed forces.” https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lz3xwyd5lc2n
“‘Nothing short of delightful’ How a corruption scandal and power struggle in the Z-blogosphere could paralyze the Russian military’s grassroots funding pipeline”
All kinds of pipelines that are destroyed are good! Now we are waiting for Yamal cross!💥👍⚔️💥
Yes, it’s time!
Then apparently there are as many pump stations as there are along all pipelines, so there is no shortage of targets!
Then it can be really fun when winter comes. If you pick a pump station when it’s freezing cold, the crude oil stands still and freezes, they may have problems at every station. (The pipes usually run underground so they will probably survive for a while at least).
“COMMENT: US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal exposes Russia’s strategic failures”
https://www.intellinews.com/comment-us-brokered-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-exposes-russia-s-strategic-failures-401810/?source=armenia
“Moment of the interception of the Russian Lancet loitering munition”
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lz3z2g2puk2r
Just want to thank once again for the amazing reporting on this blog! 👍💪
Thank you too! Nice to hear that the blog is appreciated! 👍
Thank you too NAFOfella and fun that it is being read, Nelson Mandela was also pleased yesterday got a WhatsApp from him 👍👍
Boring reading about Ukraine’s economic problems.
“A crisis is drawing ever closer. It will break in Ukraine, but it won’t begin on the frontlines, where the country’s battle-weary brigades continue to impose a brutal cost on the Russian invader. The coming crisis is brewing in the West, where the US pullback and European hesitation now threaten a financial disaster,” Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London wrote in a note for Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on September 16.”
https://www.intellinews.com/comment-ukraine-s-coming-financial-storm-401421
Just wait until the financial crash rolls out over Europe with the intention to support Ukraine.
Maybe those 170 billion USD are for preventive purposes?
As I mentioned, one effect of attacking the refineries is that others must increase production. This means, among other things, postponing maintenance, but of course, it can’t go on forever. Eventually, they may be forced to perform maintenance at the least favorable time, and if they wait too long, something important may actually break.
“Gazprom Neft has postponed scheduled maintenance at the Omsk refinery as part of government measures to stabilize Russia’s fuel market, according to company head Alexander Dyukov”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lz45lytsls27
Ukraine is bombing the hell out of the Russian fossil industry, which is good and probably war-winning, due to lack of income and soup shortage for the army (probably not the latter, that’s likely a priority). Later this winter, they might also bomb the electricity infrastructure (operation blackout).
Regarding electricity, I have a question: Why is it war-winning for Ukraine? When the Russians bombed the electricity in Ukraine, the Ukrainians got angry and united against the enemy. We got angry and said, “they are trying to bomb a people into submission, it has never worked.”
Why would the result be different if Ukraine bombs Russia?
Churchill said that a frozen Russian is better than a Russian running around.
That’s why the Russian lost the Cold War, named after Churchill when he ate ice cream.
An 88 ice cream or Nogger according to information 👍
I think you’re onto something. Admittedly, ordinary Russians seem hardly to care about the war because they don’t notice anything about it, but the question is how they would react. There is a great risk that their fighting spirit will awaken instead of them turning against Putin. They have been marinated in propaganda for quite a while now, and if they suddenly perceive themselves as threatened, perhaps the influx to the recruitment offices will increase.
Now that the economy is doing poorly, there is probably not as much labor shortage either.
With the difference that the Russian self-esteem is built on propaganda and does not come from within like the one Ukrainians have inherited for generations. And thus, the war can be tough for the Russian without eliciting any other emotions. Just keep going.
Russian ”sleeper drones” located, identified and attacked.
⚔️🇺🇦”russian drones hide on roads in disarm mode, waiting for the target. However, the warriors from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade detect and neutralize such “lurkers”.” 🎥
https://x.com/defenceu/status/1968601324640997651?s=46
Seems to be a tactic that both sides use. Smart way to save on the batteries and still have full control and be able to attack when needed. In addition, it provides a very short warning before it explodes.
If you run autonomous drones and have a small solar cell mounted, they could lie in wait for a long time.
Finally, we have almost come up with something that resembles Spider mines from Starcraft 1 from 1998.
Didn’t find any really good examples:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euhJyFzcCDs
I always bought that little pointed car in some tens and loaded up with buried spider mines in front of the ramp.
Then when the vehicles were empty, it was time for a kamikaze attack straight into the enemy base.
So I can report that Ukraine’s tactics work
Wondering if the Russians have borrowed all their tactics from Starcraft? The drones that now do a bit like Spidermines but also kamikaze attacks with high knees (in a pointed car or like a zergling rush)?
They also use tanks as artillery, another idea from Starcraft.
Would be unbeatable if you managed to gather a bunch of siege tanks and parked them at a suitable distance from the enemy base.
Much of today’s discussion revolves around drones. But what about ground drones?
We know that China has invested heavily in autonomous drone technology of all kinds – including ground drones.
While we look at and talk about drones in the sky, what’s happening on the ground? An assumption has been that ground movement is hindered due to drones in the air with IR/thermographic vision. However, this mainly applies to heat-emitting devices – vehicles, people. But what about legged or wheeled, low autonomous ground drones? They don’t have a heat signature that reveals them, they can adapt their movements to weather, terrain, and surroundings including drones in the air.
This means that while we look up in the sky and discuss threats there, we might miss a slow and quiet development, but also a physical presence of ground drones!
This is a problem that needs to be addressed and highlighted.
In prepping, sometimes the concept of 540 security is mentioned, which means both classic 360-degree security and the addition of 180 degrees upwards. This now needs to evolve into “720 security” – meaning full awareness all around, upwards AND downwards on the ground. Because these drones operate at or below knee height!
A new reality that I predict will be the next step in drone development.
If we don’t start talking about this now, we risk being surprised when ground drones are already here.
Some links to support the above discussion:
China’s Robot Dogs & Killer Drones:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up3VeVPQRsw
China Shows Off Future Warfare: Drones, Robot Wolves & Missiles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA9K7tR3iRk
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Nj6WuWw8oc0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WTu9d5abQFI
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OWZSIhyNovc
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/E3dFyy5gZTI
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ir4z1t8YBCY
Or marine drones, something that provides the smallest signatures and maybe moves like marine animals?
With a little magnetic mine in tow 😀
Are you really building ports?🧐
😶
New harbors – new embraces. As the sailor said…
In the area in northern Luhansk near Kupiansk, Ukraine has started to withdraw from that bubble now.
You can see it because RU advanced at “Stephona Novisilka”.
There were supposed to be 5000 in that area but Oskil is narrow so they should manage to slip out.
Sad anyway.
As MXT wrote above
Norra Luhansk is not a prioritized area for RU…
Ryssjävlar
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2681837/lithuania-says-it-busted-russian-linked-network-that-planned-terror-attacks-in-europe
Can bombers
“Polisens sökningar i Litauen, Polen, Lettland och Estland ledde till att fler sprängämnen hittades gömda i konservburkar, tillsammans med tändrör.”
They are up to a lot of bad things in Europe now…
What does Gregg say about Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad now?
When does Mark Rutte believe Ukraine will deploy 1000 interceptor drones daily?
For its no-fly zone.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4037922-ukraine-to-deploy-1000-interceptor-drones-daily-to-counter-russian-strikes-shmyhal.html
As soon as Ukraine is part of NATO.
🤣🤣
😂👍
I am so infinitely tired of Russia.
Good morning!
1150 KWIA
1 AFV
17 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
1 Anti-Aircraft system
211 UAVs
44 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
3 Special equipment
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lz5zt6quwc25
Glory to Ukraine