Have you thought about what Zelensky has up his sleeve?
He’s seventeen shades of cocky right now –
Taking on Trump in various statements, mocking Russia and Putin through every channel he can, criticizing Poland’s worthless drone defense, and stating that we in Europe are defenseless.
He also announces that Ukraine will help Taiwan build drone and anti-drone weapons.
In 2023, he was beaten at the NATO meeting where they called him ungrateful, and in the fall of 2024, he was first humiliated by Biden and then Trump in that order.
In 2025, Ukraine tried to play along with Trump’s fiasco where McDonalds Gandhi starts a war instead of mediating peace, and Europe wanted a ceasefire, which was the worst proposal ever. We wrote at the time that Putin would just turn everything against Europe instead and continue with us.
Now Zelensky is really upbeat even though –
-The USA has not only left Ukraine but also the Baltics.
-The personnel supply in the army is not good at all.
-Russia with China has received help in setting up an entirely new arms industry producing 1500 tanks, 1000 robots, 79,000 Gerandrones per year
-Ukraine is backing down on all fronts, and northern Luhansk is starting to look serious.
-Europe is completely ineffective in drone defense even though we promise powerful retaliation – hot air.
-Europe’s defense forces cannot fight in 2025, and Putin and China know it.
-Country after country in Europe is backtracking on promises of troops in Ukraine in peacetime, even though they could have just kept quiet.
-No one wants an air defense zone over Ukraine even when Russia sends drones into Europe.
-Russian subversive activities in Europe are winning over country after country, creating government crises so that the countries become at best indifferent and at worst hostile to the EU.
-China has thrown its white gloves into Russia’s corner and been open about it.
-Europe is facing a financial crisis where only a triggering factor is needed, which Russia will provide.
That list doesn’t make anyone happy at all – I get depressed just writing it 😶
One reason might be that they no longer care about our stop blocks – it’s full asymmetrical warfare. It must have been a liberating feeling, to say the least.
But ultimately, after over three years of not being held back anymore, you don’t win any war if you don’t have the material. I think UA can handle 60% now, and Europe is arming itself instead of Ukraine.
The drone race is always close, so he has no reason to be cocky there either – Zelensky, of all people, knows that the scales tip every 6-12 months and that China is in the race for Russia’s next capability boost.
So what makes Zelensky lively?
I can think of two reasons –
-Zelensky is convinced that Europe will soon be dragged into the war because he knows Russia’s plans.
-Ukraine has agreements with enough sub-republics and -regions that there will be a revolution, and that ball is rolling.
UA is very street-smart, and if they didn’t feel the wind at their backs, they wouldn’t behave like this.
Something is fishy overall right now – China is talking big, everyone wants to be friends with Lukashenko, and Zelensky is more positive than me when everything is going backwards.
Things are not as they seem, that’s the only conclusion.
What I DON’T think is the reason for his joy –
-Trump is actually playing on Team Ukraine.
-Europe has grand military plans.
Probably Ukraine has set things in motion, and Chinese/Russian escalation is also underway, which Ukraine is aware of.
So Zelensky is happy because we will be dragged into the war 😀
I rejoice with Ukraine, we need to get involved in this and really take it to Russia.
Unfortunately, war is also business – Trump is a bit more explicit, but our arms manufacturers also want to get big orders, and politicians listen to money, and our citizens are always easier to handle if there is an external enemy justifying harsh measures – like Chatcontrol 2.0 that Sweden intended to vote for as the humanitarian superpower we are.
I remember when both the Palestinians and Israel declared Wallström persona non grata, so we haven’t done very well when wielding our humanitarian superpower sword.
I continue to look ahead – we engage Africa with fair trade agreements, we swallow our pride with the USA and make a NICE trade deal with them – we and they buy from each other, we claw back manufacturing to Europe.
We permanently solve our eastern front, and our surplus can help in Asia during the world war.
China – Russia – India can buy from each other, it should work out well 😀
Europe has a bright future if we make the right moves.
If we make the wrong decisions, we will end up in a cold war under Russian dominance, and the USA will sell us security at a premium again.
Yes, there are those in Europe who feel it would benefit them, just as the wind and solar lobby toasted with champagne when our nuclear reactors were shut down – not because they are environmentalists but because they want to make money, as someone has to rebuild what has been lost.
Zelensky and Ukraine are the key – without them, it would have been over, and with them, we have a chance, but we must make the right decisions.
Going back to WW2, Germany had prepared for the next war, and Europe was stuck in yesterday’s – Poland had a more modern tank than the Germans, albeit in small numbers, and France had more (modern) tanks and aircraft than Germany when they were attacked.
What Germany did was to identify today’s warfare and leave yesterday behind.
Russia has now been forced to do the same, and today, in the fall of 2025, they have gotten organized.
Unlike in 1940 when the smoke cleared after a few intense summer months following Europe’s attempt to choose peace in 1938 and 1939, over two million Allied soldiers were lost, and Europe was completely overrun.
Ukraine is currently in the middle and doesn’t seem to intend to throw in the towel, which is good, but what does the risk list say about the consequences if UA loses the entire war?
Europe is not working with a risk list now, but we should because it’s game over if Ukraine and Russia turn against us.
Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Russia, followed rapidly by Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria.
It would be full-scale war, and even if we come out on top as we always have – except in 1914, 1939, throughout the Cold War, and in a large number of wars in the 19th century.
But there will be a great deal of suffering.
We know that Europe currently lacks the courage to make tough decisions, so if we were heading in that direction, we wouldn’t have stopped it.
As I said – Ukraine stands between us and the bleak, some of us saw this already in 2022 and have followed the war every day since then, trying to report to keep up the interest.
This is our era’s global conflict, and with major global movements come great opportunities and the risk of violent downside – nothing comes for free.
WW2 ended with Europe lying crushed under the Soviet boot and buying oxygen from the USA at five times the market price – the USA deliberately led us there together with the Soviet Union, Europe couldn’t resist.
Churchill did his best, he actually wanted Poland to join the West but the USA handed Poland over to the Soviet Union.
Sweden, on the other hand, did the opposite and sent back all the Balts to the Soviet Union so they could be killed.
Moreover, Sweden probably considered the fines we received from the Allies after the war as voluntary reconstruction aid to Europe or something shameful like we were.
Also, look into which banks financed Hitler’s rearmament in the 1930s by the way 😀
My warning about this downside is therefore well supported by history, and the only variable so far is that Russia made the cardinal mistake of going after Ukraine first.
This is the Soviet Union’s Winter War or the USA’s Vietnam War, but with the difference that there is no opposition stabbing them in the back at the right moment – they have been given endless chances, almost to the point where one starts to suspect that the West does not want them to fail so that we return to at least a Cold War.
Vietnam was lost due to a Russian influence operation, not because the USA lost the war – that’s how toxic these operations are.
Did you know that North Vietnam started the war and that they went very hard on South Vietnam after the USA left? The Vietnamese boat refugees in the 1980s were South Vietnamese trying to escape the atrocities where several million were killed by North Vietnam.
You probably didn’t know that because the same day the USA left Vietnam, calm settled over the universities and the demonstrations against the Vietnam War ceased on that day.
Did you ever hear Palme or the 68 movement in Sweden go crazy over Vietnam after the USA left?
And yet so many question my descriptions of Russian subversive activities today as pure fantasies – they simply refuse to see the forest for all the trees.
In order for us to come out on top in this global conflict of our time, we need to straighten out our eastern border, Ukraine wins the war, we mine said border again, and never issue a visa to a Russian again.
Yes, it will be like the Hunger Games, but we will build our “The Wall” and Black Watch will become Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine.
It’s time for Africa to have its golden age and for Europe not to constantly have a threat of war hanging over it.
We fought throughout the 19th century, had two devastating wars in the 20th century, and then a Cold War that only ended in the 1990s.
By the way, the USA had its golden age during the Cold War.
It’s time for us to do like the USA and isolate ourselves so that it becomes impossible to reach us – best done together with Belarus and Ukraine.
I think we can afford to start looking ahead now that Ukraine seems to be catching a glimpse of dawn, but as you can see, we will be forced to make some tough decisions in the future.
By the way, who has talked about JEF since 2022?
This will be covered in a separate post sometime.
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying subscribers. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 will make you healthier too 👍
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The northern sector with N Slobozhansky-Kursk (12💥) and S Slobozhansky (11💥) in terms of the number of attacks hitting rock bottom over a month ago seems to be recovering. Continued pressure in Donetsk (Toretsk-Pokrovsk-Novopavlivka) and high overall pressure with 172 reported attacks, of which 169 were distributed across the fronts as shown below.
Three explosion emojis in Pokrovsk 😳
Yes, last time when it wasn’t three was not enough when it was four weeks ago. Otherwise, it has mostly been three.
Boundaries:
9-24 💥
25-44 💥💥
45-74 💥💥💥
75-94 💥💥💥💥
95- 💥💥💥💥💥
A bit on a whim but trying to keep myself consistent.
According to updated information, the enemy carried out a rocket attack and 53 air strikes yesterday, firing two rockets and dropping 105 guided bombs. Additionally, they conducted 4970 shootings, including 122 with rocket systems for salvo fire, and used 5995 kamikaze drones to strike.
The aggressor conducted air attacks, including against the areas of Zalyznytske, Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia, Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, and Odradokamyanka in the Kherson region.
In the past 24 hours, the air force, missile forces, and artillery within the defense forces struck three areas where personnel were concentrated, a weapons and military equipment depot, and an advanced enemy command post.
The Russian invaders’ losses in the past 24 hours amounted to 970 individuals. Ukrainian soldiers have also destroyed two tanks, three armored vehicles, 43 artillery systems, one rocket artillery system, two aircraft, 334 drones, 130 vehicles, and four units of special equipment belonging to the occupiers.
4 special 👍👍
Kiev Independent:
Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow throughout the night, mayor says. Airspace over the Russian capital was closed due to the drone attack, prompting a temporary suspension of operations at Moscow’s airports.
Chinese vessel docks in Russian-occupied Crimea despite sanctions, FT reports. According to Ukrainian authorities, the vessel has moored in Sevastopol at least three times in recent months, the Financial Times reported.
‘Everything could be shut down’ — Zelensky calls for joint Western air defense system to down Russian missiles, drones over Ukraine. During his speech to the UN Security Council on Sept. 23, President Volodymyr Zelensky called on members of the Coalition of the Willing to assist Ukraine in shooting down Russian missiles and drones fired over Ukrainian airspace.
Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries drop Russian diesel exports to 5-year low, FT reports. According to FT, 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries have been struck by Ukrainian drones since August 2025. The disruptions have limited Russia’s refining capacity by over 1 million barrels per day, the research group Energy Aspects told FT, dropping exports to below pre-war levels.
‘Now he trusts me much more,’ Zelensky says as Trump shifts toneon Russia. “Gradually, he realized that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was simply sharing some information that was far from the truth on the battlefield. Now he trusts me much more because the information that my intelligence has, that we share with our partners,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Russia not close to encirclementof Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast despite claims, expert says. Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Dnipro group of forces, also denied these claims, saying that Russia is trying to advance toward Kupiansk from the north.
Ukraine hits Russian oil facilities in Bryansk, Samara oblasts, military claims. Ukrainian forces struck the 8-N linear production dispatching station near the village of Naitopovichi in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast overnight on Sept. 23, Ukraine’s General Staff reported.
Estonia open to hosting UK’s nuclear-capable F-35 jets, minister says after Russian incursion. “The door is always open for allies,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said in response to the Telegraph’s question whether the Baltic NATO ally is ready to host the U.K.’s nuclear-capable aircraft in the future.
Good news everyone
I was thinking of writing down some thoughts regarding Johan’s post, which contained many insightful truths.
I’ll start with Zelensky. He is, of course, in good spirits because he is now sure of who will win the war. Ukraine, of course, is fully aware of the protest movements in Russia. Tens of thousands of demonstrators protested in Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, Omsk, and Novosibirsk before the war broke out. It was about the arrest of Sergei Fugal. But also other things. One can safely say that Siberians are not high on the priority list. Not in the Russian Far East either. Although Vladivostok and even Nakhodka are handsome cities, but only on the surface. There is unrest here.
Johan is absolutely right about the Vietnam War. The US did not lose the war. It was the domestic opinion under the influence of another power that made the US back down.
Interesting with Margot Wallström. First, MW acknowledged Palestine. (I have no opinion on whether it is right or wrong). She was banned from entering Israel. Then she criticized Saudi Arabia for its lack of democracy. She was also banned there. The Arab League with Palestine stood on Saudi’s side. The King was called in as a letter-writing mediator.
Sweden was also going to acknowledge Western Sahara, but it all fell through, or perhaps one should say it got lost in the desert in this case. A conflict with Morocco would probably have been too much as well. In Western Sahara, there is, in the mentioned order, sand, flies, phosphate, and Bedouins. I have been to Villa Cisneros (now Dakhla) but back then the country was called Spanish Sahara. Thank you for your interesting and well-written posts, Johan no 1!
Yes, there were maybe a few more rounds with Margot 👍
Can we expect an attack on the Yamal Peninsula? And what would be the consequences for oil production and its export? Even better if it were freezing cold?
💥💥💥
See that the field support staff is gathered in the thread 👍
Good post 205
Have you seen Trump’s statements?
didn’t manage to include them but posted on substack and bluesky
has he made a U-turn, that is the big question?
to say the least, I am disillusioned when it comes to him
Ukraine also had a meeting with KAZAKHSTAN in the USA 🤩🤩🤩
Has the USA been forced to change course?
Do they understand that they are stuck without Ukraine?
Jan W – the other week when you said that things are going well for Ukraine, were you thinking about the drone bombing of Raff?
Now that Trump has suddenly changed course, it suddenly looks very bright, but do you have a direct line to Trump?
He WhatsApps me every now and then. But it’s been damn hard to get him to see reason. I think he’s a bit slow-witted. Or maybe I haven’t spent enough time on him. But it seems like it’s starting to get through. 😉
hahaha, you’re pulling a Johan No.1 on Johan No.1 🤣🤣
Yeah, I was a bit curious because it sure as hell wasn’t on my bingo card that Trump would turn at all.
Well, it might be too early to draw conclusions. Action speaks louder than words.
We’ll see!
I can’t make heads or tails of this at all – MXT where is your drum analysis 😀
Zelensky has been positive but all arrows point downwards – because Krasnov and the USA have been stabbing Ukraine in the back for 9 long months and ruining things for Europe, so the only thing left is for UA to be free and/or for Europe to be forced into the war.
Europe has not managed to shoot down drones and our force posture was poor so there’s really nothing new there.
Then all of a sudden we get a huge signal from Trump, have you read what the White House tagged or not?
-UA should reclaim its entire country.
-The USA will send all weapons to Europe, and Europe and Ukraine can do as they please with them.
A month ago, Europe and the USA wanted a ceasefire but Putin refused.
Now Trump hasn’t suddenly become religious or the USA hasn’t suddenly become good, so what has happened?
What has happened recently?
Meeting in China where Xi introduces a competitor to SWIFT and other economic atomic bombs, and the USA has declared war for less.
17 undersea cables cut in the Red Sea.
Drones flying over Poland.
Drones disrupting Europe’s airports.
Zapad 25 with nuclear threats.
Putin threatening with nuclear weapons.
—
The entire West is now trying to get UA drone technology, the USA is hopelessly behind and Europe is leaning on the USA.
—
Do you think the USA has realized that they have started sawing off the branch they are sitting on?
That they can’t handle China on their own if Europe falls out after Ukraine is gone?
That we have reached the point of “the USA always does the right thing after trying everything else”?
—
Do you think Zelensky and Jan W have received insider information and that’s why Zelensky has been standing there grinning on TV?
—
The only sure thing I had on my bingo card was that the USA and Trump were on the wrong side in this 😀
It hasn’t happened suddenly, but the signs that Russia’s economy is heading to hell have been coming in a steady stream for a long time. Could it be that intelligence reports indicate that the collapse is near and that Trump will then jump on the winning side (and prepare to fend off if anyone were to leak to the Guardian all the compromising material I am convinced Russia has on him).
Yes, but wouldn’t Putin have agreed to a ceasefire like the USA, Europe, and Ukraine wanted?
I thought that Russia was in bad shape and could only hold on until January 20, 2025, which was evidently wrong.
But yes – since August 2, Ukraine has been trying to drone away all of Russia.
But the simple thing for Putin would have been to call the USA and say “I agree to a ceasefire”?
Yes, it may seem so, but on the other hand, another theme has been that Putin is poorly informed because no one dares to tell him the truth.
Yes, he does have a little information bubble 😀
“Do you think the USA has understood that they have started to saw off the branch they are sitting on?
That they cannot handle China on their own if Europe falls apart after Ukraine is gone?”
One might think they should have realized that a long time ago. But who knows. The sinner shall wake up late as it says in the scripture. (I think so,)
Yes, I have thought that the USA and Trump’s actions have been so destructive that one started to suspect a full alliance with China.
One can only hope that they have started to realize that America First is turning into America alone.
However, the cynical side of me sees instead that it is Trump’s alter ego Krasnov, who promises to help Europe and Ukraine, so that Europe will lower its guard. And when it comes down to it, he backs off.
We’ll see when actions are taken instead of words, and how many two-week deadlines Putin manages to deceive this time.
Trump had a phone meeting with Xi Jinping the other day. Was there anything that happened there that can explain?
And then there’s the thing about the US stopping arms deliveries to Taiwan, maybe they have a deal in progress. Like, the US throws Taiwan under the bus if China throws Russia under the bus.
Speaking of the bingo card, no worries Johan, even a chicken with perfect vision can miss a grain. As Churchill used to say.
I haven’t been surprised very often in this war, actually.
“USA always does what is right after they have tried everything else first” – is this going to be some damn truth 😶
We had almost three years with Biden and then a Trump and the USA that ran the same but even worse.
Who would have guessed this?
Not Putin and China anyway 🤣🤣🤣
Proposal to the staff in the thread –
A whole battery of old -towns and republics in Russia want to choose the West and freedom but they have not dared.
Only Azerbaijan dared.
Now Zelensky met the white-haired leader of Kazakhstan and wanted to be seen in a picture.
If the USA stands behind Ukraine, the ball is probably rolling.
The Full Asymmetric Warfare 😀😀✊
Thank f**k for last time. Now the youth can look on the internet and make comparisons.
The USA was recently involved in Azerbaijan and provided/received support. Peace agreement with Armenia that may be pending?
Guess what this did for the shooters in their pits to see Zelensky standing and grinning with a mischievous Trump and “take back your country now guys”.
It says a lot about Europe that the best news this year is that Trump is no longer stabbing Ukraine in the back.
Why couldn’t we say, “take back your country now, we’ll give you all the weapons you need, you can do whatever you want with them,” and then send all the RB15, Taurus, Storm Shadow, and Scalp missiles we have in stock?
Is it so damn hard to say and do?
Full activity in the thread I see, wonderful 👍👍
Do you think Poland’s closing of the border to Belarus, which drove China completely crazy, was part of this?
Do you think Ukraine forced the change – I think so because Trump tried to be difficult with them in August but they didn’t care.
WW2 ended with Europe being crushed under the Soviet boot and buying oxygen from the USA at five times the market price – the USA deliberately led us there together with the Soviet Union, Europe couldn’t resist.
Churchill did his best, he actually wanted Poland to be part of the West but the USA handed Poland over to the Soviet Union.
So Molotov-Ribbentrop was a Russian doll between a double-dealing Russia and the USA? And the whole of Europe was the cake.
❗️Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack and explosion on an oil terminal of the Tuapse oil refinery.
It is reported that the strike hit the oil loading pier, where fuel oil, vacuum gas oil, and diesel with a high sulfur content are shipped.
Two Russian large oil ports in the Black Sea have temporarily stopped loading tankers due to a drone threat.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1970895791209197611?s=46
I believe you are staring a bit too much at what is happening at the front.
Two major events that have happened somewhat in the background are Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s logistics.
Fuel queues have now started to form in Moscow.
Crimea is more or less dry on fuel at this point.
Even a thick-headed person like Trump has now realized this.
But above all, it is Poland’s attack on China’s and other Asian countries’ logistics that should be highlighted better.
The effects on goods from Asia were enormous when Poland closed its border with Belarus.
Quote from Asia Times:
“The China-Europe Railway Express has become a pillar of EU-China commerce. The line runs through Belarus into Poland and carries about 90% of all China-EU rail freight. In 2024, cargo volumes on the route grew 10.6% year-on-year, while the value of goods surged 85% to about 25.07 billion euros (US$27 billion).
The rail bridge now accounts for roughly 3.7% of all EU-China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier. The increase was driven by high-turnover cross-border e-commerce and higher-value industrial consignments.”
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/poland-border-closure-choking-china-eu-rail-trade/
I believe that with the closure, Poland has sent quite clear signals to China.
China stands and falls with steady economic growth, which China’s leaders are well aware of.
Interesting, I didn’t know that so much of the China trade went through Poland.
Agree with the previous comment.
Is a loss of 3.7% really “enormous”, where a large part will surely choose to travel by sea instead? So the actual loss may end up at 1-2%?
Has The Old Man hacked MXT’s computer? MXT may have reprimanded DG, which made him angry.
I guess Zelensky’s mood depends on either:
Good morning!
Russian losses in the war in Ukraine:
970 KIA
2 Tanks
3 AFVs (Armored Fighting Vehicles)
43 Artillery systems
1 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System)
2 Aircraft
334 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
130 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
4 Special equipment
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lzn57umdks2p
Glory to Ukraine!