Ukraine daily update September 25, 2025

Hard to miss that Trump has made a U-turn in the Ukraine war as the world’s media have it on their front pages with a grinning Zelensky and a “Russia vehemently rejects Trump’s claims that Ukraine can win the war as a big lie, we are not a paper tiger, we are a strong bear.”

We’ll have to wait a bit but this was so clear that I don’t think it was a smokescreen – done at the UN, Zelensky has known about it for a while, it’s being pushed out on all channels so it should be very clear and not misunderstood. Earlier, Rubio or the White House clarified if Trump accidentally said something that could be interpreted positively – now they are reinforcing the message.

Trump hasn’t suddenly become religious and the USA is not the knight of goodness, so maybe we’ve reached “the USA always does what is right when they’ve tried everything else”?

This is a huge signal policy from the USA and Trump – “take back your country, what are you waiting for,” “we’ll send all the weapons you need as long as you pay,” and “Russia are weak losers, just run over them.”

This article has something fun in every paragraph, the best reading of the year 🤣🤣

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07vm35rryeo

This was not at all on my bingo card – we’ve had 9 months to understand Trump and the USA, which is quite a long time so we definitely haven’t misunderstood the situation.

We also have almost three years with Biden and Sullivan’s betrayal towards Ukraine – a strategy that Trump fully embraced and reinforced.

Why did the USA and Trump change course, a few suggestions –

-The USA and Europe have realized that we need Ukraine’s technology for war, that we are hopelessly behind.

-Europe is not ready for full-scale war if Ukraine falls.

-China is talking about introducing a SWIFT killer and the USA has started wars for less.

-China is actually an active part in the UA War and on May 9th they chose to show it.

-China recently had a meeting with the “global south” where they were open about having a lot of weapons and wanting to advance their positions.

-The USA probably tried to economically bring down China and almost crashed themselves in the process.

-US finance has identified Russia as the next smash-and-grab target?

-The USA realized that Russia will never become their enemy’s enemy against China.

This is good for Ukraine and I like that – now my constant hobbyhorse remains that we must see it in action as well BUT… the USA won’t contribute much, just sell weapons to Europe who will give them to Ukraine and start pressuring Europe to do more.

The USA will probably now take on the tough rhetoric against Russia so we win the PR war.

Ukraine still needs to win the war but if they can now roll out their full asymmetric warfare, they will do it.

As a return favor, we will assist the USA in the war against China.

Did you see that Ukraine and Kazakhstan had a confidential conversation in the USA 😍😍😍

Game on – I think it’s on now, those sitting on the fence just needed the USA to step in with their support to dare to choose a side.

When I was in Ghana, both presidential candidates declared themselves winners and everyone held their breath. The US ambassador then got into his embassy car with the flags on the hood and went to the home of one candidate, and five minutes later the media hailed him as the winner.

Russia has what they have, we have described it in detail, and they also have over half a million in FSB, GRU, Rosgvardia, SVR, and other various armed paramilitary units for domestic upbringing.

If all the old -stan countries like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan choose Ukraine and the West, Russia doesn’t stand a chance to stop it.

And if regions in Russia start declaring their freedom and storming provincial headquarters, Russia is helpless.

The sh1tland would collapse within months when this kicks off – and that’s Ukraine’s plan, we know that 😍

USA/Biden/Sullivan followed the USA’s old line during the Cold War that Russia absolutely must not fall, and Trump adopted that line but was even worse for nine long months.

The USA and Trump know very well the consequences of what they have done now, and what did Trump mean by “Ukraine may be able to do even more”…

IT’S GAME ON NOW, RUSSIAN BASTARDS 💥💥💥

By the way, don’t think we got this for free – the whole of Europe will soon have to provide aircraft and ships against China 😄

Back to the world before Trump at the UN – do you see what Russia is doing right now?

They are retaliating softly against Europe 😄

When Ukraine sends drone swarms into Russia, Russia sends drones and aircraft into Europe.

When Ukraine closes all airports, Russia closes our airports. The costs for airlines skyrocket after such an action.

The purpose is, of course, to create the feeling that if Ukraine stops, our lives will be easier – Russia does this in frustration and hopes that we also get frustrated and return to Biden’s and Sullivan’s old USA line.

What Ukraine has now rolled out over Russia harms them – it’s just sad that Ukraine didn’t get to do it before the summer of 2025 when Russia was at its weakest, but “better late than never” as they say in boot camp.

For those who have read about Russian subversive activities for a few years now, you have known that Russia has tentacles into Islamists, right-wing extremists, and left-wing extremists, and that the Palestinian demonstrations are a bit of a modern Cold War classic.

You have also known since winter that this summer there would be unrest in our European cities.

Right now, Palestinian demonstrators have destroyed Milan, the UK had a good demonstration that was immediately hijacked by the Russians, and the weekend after, there was a “remove Starmer” demonstration that turned violent.

The Netherlands is shaken by protests against migration, and in France, gangs have taken to the streets and are burning down Paris suburbs.

In Sweden, we have a fairly high level of gang warfare and Palestinian demonstrators harass members of parliament to and from work.

The most obvious thing since the turn of the millennium is that Islamists will soon mobilize to meet the racists.

When the broad masses join in, any government in Europe will have problems, and in the UK, they are already there – now we just need a bit of gang riots, a Palestinian demonstration going off track, and then the Islamists besieging a couple of churches, and it will probably turn into a full-blown situation with some police officers in the middle of a surging crowd 😄

That’s what Russia is planning, and my laughing emoji above is not meant seriously – in the UK, it’s serious now.

Those of you who laugh heartily at my warnings about escalation have probably noticed the amount of unannounced military exercises that Europe is currently engaging in. Since “the best is to lay low” was the favorite a few months ago, I wonder if you are now against all the unannounced exercises in Europe and that half of Europe is now promising to shoot down Russian aircraft if they come again?

Or have you started to change your mind and it’s good now, there’s nothing easier than being reactive.

Russia is now testing where the line between Article 4 and Article 5 lies, they have understood that it is stretchable and subjective, but they also understand that it can go the other way if they are unlucky.

What ingredients are missing in the Russian soup simmering on the stove?

-Operation to turn off the lights for Europe – there we are helpless and very high probability of power outages this winter. Even if we try, we can’t stop it.

It’s under Article 5, can be denied by Russia, and we prefer not to invoke Article 5 so expect a lot of technical faults and unexplained fires when it starts to get cold.

-a financial black swan, the stock market starts to rise in deep red and then Russia will provide a black swan for Europe, ideally if capital starts to flow from Europe to the USA.

This is such a low-hanging fruit that I don’t think they will miss it – also full deniability and under Article 5 on that.

-Expose Poland’s bluff with “we will shoot down anything flying into our territory”.

They are helpless in the next 6-9 months against drone swarms period, and if Russia wants to embarrass the Poles, they can. If you have prepared for yesterday’s war twice in a row, you have.

It won’t trigger Article 5 anyway 😀

-An Estonian rebel movement seeking autonomy in a certain area and rumors of little green men in the eastern forests of the Baltics.

It will definitely come if we are not already there, just that we don’t hear anything. We have sent our Special Operations Forces there anyway.

Since the last thing we want is to invoke Article 5, we will definitely come here, but Russia will stop short of a full invasion, which would then trigger Article 5, which they also do not want.

“all we need to do is continue to support, and Ukraine will win”.

Great 👍

How do you think our willingness to support looks in an acute financial crisis when we run out of money?

Or if we get new governments that are anti-Ukraine disguised in budget discipline and peace movements?

The Netherlands and the Czech Republic are up next, and in France, Le Pen’s party is breathing down Macron’s neck.

And Keir Starmer’s Labour is busy avoiding votes of no confidence or new elections.

The ironic thing is that the full asymmetric war that we denied Ukraine when they could have easily won is the full asymmetric war from Russia that is now washing over us – karma.

As I said – Ukraine stands between us and a lot of trouble, so supporting them to a victory is the best we can do.

I don’t think we can overstate what an enormous morale boost this was for the Ukrainian forces and what an enormous PR crash Putin Trump has caused.

Will he even survive this, Swan Lake in black and white on a TV near us in a few months?

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41 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update September 25, 2025”

  1. Best news in a long time! Hope the trend continues!?

    Drones and boats? Denmark and Germany! RyzZk boat caught in the act!
    I noticed that ryzZka boats are using Maskirovka tactics, are we very naive?
    Here’s some food for thought, just recently a ryzZk vessel pretended to have huge problems! What were they really up to?
    Some input for your thoughts?
    AIS manipulation / transponder shutdown: when AIS is intermittent or has strange spikes (on/off), it is a classic indicator of attempts to conceal movements during transshipment. Many reports of suspected vessels mention unusual AIS patterns.
    Note: Could they have delivered drones to useful idiots/collaborators/ryzZars?

  2. Blue-eyed innocence in these times Johan! Good topic to write about!
    Listen to this: “No, you shouldn’t point fingers at the politicians, we don’t have any evidence”

    1. The EU Council and Commission have acknowledged that Russian hybrid campaigns against member states have intensified since 2022 and that the EU needs tools to detect and respond to such operations.

      A simple mantra: “Protect society, economy, and democracy in the EU, together.” The purpose must be linked to concrete actions: shared intelligence, border surveillance, and civil preparedness. Without political consensus, all technical solutions become fragmented. (Directly related to the Strategic Compass).

      Europe faces complex threats from state and non-state actors (drone attacks, influence, economic infiltration). The strategic analysis in the EU’s Strategic Compass is clear: the threats are increasing, the response must be united and practical.

      It is time for the EU to act more forcefully!

    2. Is Putin crazy? Yes, but…Putin’s actions are rational from the perspective of an authoritarian regime! The goal is to secure the survival of the regime and expand geopolitical influence by weakening opponents, dividing the West, and creating space for Russian interests, even if it means draining resources from civil development and causing suffering to the people at home. According to sources, this is not madness but a calculated strategy, even though the cynicism entails significant costs for the own population, which is arrogantly disregarded!
      The objective is to reduce Western support for Ukraine and sow distrust within the EU/NATO (political fragmentation pays off strategically). Information operations and small-scale attacks test boundaries and increase the cost of a joint response.
      By using paramilitary actors, private contractors, or fake civilians, the Kremlin can influence foreign arenas without immediately being held accountable. This provides freedom of action. (Wagner patterns and proxy strategies are typical examples).
      Oligarchs and the political elite benefit from military equipment, export contracts, and control over natural resources. For these actors, war economy and geopolitical expansion are profitable. There is a “war economy” that devours resources but distributes benefits “only” to Putin’s groups.
      Look at the USA and what Trump is trying to do! The billionaires are his oligarchs!
      By investing in influence, sabotage, and supply chain influence, the Kremlin hopes to shape Europe’s policy space, for example, by creating political forces that oppose strong sanctions or military support for Ukraine.

      My conclusion: It is NOT PEACE, it is WAR!

      Why this naivety of democracy?

  3. Well understood and summarized about the situation.

    The ironic thing is that the full asymmetrical war that we denied Ukraine when they easily could have won is the full asymmetrical war from Russia that is now washing over us – karma.

    Oh my. In Denmark, Aalborg airport is currently closed due to drones.

    I don’t think it can be overstated what an enormous morale boost this was for the Ukrainian shooters and what an enormous PR crash for Putin Trump has caused.

    From Russian PR success in Alaska to a crash in just one month.

  4. Russian losses in the war in Ukraine:

    • 970 KIA
    • 2 Tanks
    • 3 AFVs
    • 43 Artillery systems
    • 1 MLRS
    • 2 Aircrafts
    • 334 UAVs
    • 130 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
    • 4 Special equipment

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  5. Once again a dip in the north, the lowest since mid-August, after which the northern front has worked its way up again. The second lowest figure since the beginning of May. Also slightly lower in Toretsk-Pokrovsk-Novopavlivka. On the rise in Lyman and Siversk. Slightly up in the south. Out of 160 reported attacks, 130 were distributed over the reported fronts according to the list below. Where the 30 attacks that are not included in the list have been is the question?

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 6↘️
    S Slobozhansky 2↘️
    Kupyansk 6
    Lyman 25💥💥↗️
    Siverskyi 7↗️
    Kramatorsk 4
    Toretsk 10💥↘️
    Pokrovsk 49💥💥💥↘️
    Novopavlivka 13💥↘️↘️
    Huliaypillia 4
    Orikhivsk 1
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 3

  6. In the past, when one was younger, two Gammeldansk and a Tuborg in the morning could solve complicated world problems. Nowadays, one has improved(?), and replaced this with coffee and Johan no 1′. Today was no exception.
    I got stuck on the word “frustration”. This word summarizes well the Russians’ behavior towards NATO right now. A country that is successful in the war would not have been involved in drone sabotage and GPS interference against countries it is not at war with, but would have focused on the war it had started. This is nothing but poor loser mentality.

  7. Regarding Russia’s claim that they are not a paper tiger at all but a strong bear, it is very fitting to quote Thatcher:

    “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.”

  8. Russian ship linked to drone chaos in Copenhagen – now approaching Finland

    While drones disrupted air traffic in Copenhagen on Monday, a Russian ship was seen maneuvering in unusual zigzag patterns nearby. The Finnish coast guard is monitoring the ship’s progress.

     

    Yle

  9. I have been following the USA now and it is definitely a change of course, which was welcome.

    The cowardly EU will not be able to hide behind the USA, on the contrary, the USA will constantly urge us on.

    The USA will not pay but send weapons for payment – by the way, has the Pentagon changed its mind, they didn’t have any weapons to send anymore?

    What you are seeing right now is when M or S are about to send a message and everyone writes the same with a little variation. Right now it’s about Ukraine reclaiming its land and that Russia are weak cowards.

    As mentioned, it also requires Ukraine to do so and this was more than legally late and Europe did not take on the leadership role when the USA backed off, but we have a real world to relate to as well.

    1. The question is whether it is only now that the USA considers that they have got Europe where they want it? That before it was “change or we’ll ignore you” and to show seriousness, they went so far that Europe felt it had no choice but to obey the USA?

       

      I thought the USA would turn earlier. As I said before, the USA will send weapons but Europe will have to pay. A much better line than Biden’s bottle policy (assuming Trump sticks to the new line).

       

      Then Trump has, in a very didactic (but extremely dangerous) way, shown that Putin and RU are not ones we can trust and that they definitely do not want peace.

       

      I just hope that the people in Europe see that RU are not our friends and that RU’s subversive activities make people angry!

  10. A truth or two has been delivered on this blog over the years, and I believe you will get another one eventually – the one about Russia standing and screaming in the UN that Ukraine is the aggressor, they kill children, and that they should at least get to keep Moscow.

    Not the last one perhaps, but soon Russia will become a big victim.

  11. Flamingo is now being produced two per day and it has been tested rigorously several times 😀

    365X2 targets destroyed in one year.

    And it can come with a bunker-buster warhead 🤣🤣🤣

    1. BREAKING

      Something is coming: “The US Secretary of Defense is urgently summoning hundreds of generals and admirals from around the world, without giving a reason,” — “WP.”

        1. Hegseth calls for a rare, urgent meeting with hundreds of generals and admirals
          The Pentagon has summoned military leaders from around the world to a meeting in Virginia. Not even the highest generals and their staff are aware of the reason for the meeting.
          Updated
          September 25, 2025 at 1:00 PM EDT today at 1:00 PM EDT

          6 min

          3,954

          Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Michigan. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
          By Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, Ellen Nakashima, and Noah Robertson
          Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered hundreds of generals and admirals in the U.S. military to gather at short notice – and without a specified reason – at a marine base in Virginia next week, causing confusion and concern after the Trump administration dismissed a large number of senior leaders this year.

          The highly unusual directives were sent to virtually all of the military’s top commanders worldwide, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the matter. It was issued earlier this week, against the backdrop of a potential government shutdown, and as Hegseth’s openly political actions have deepened a sense of unease among his opponents who fear he is erasing the Defense Department’s status as an impartial institution.
          In a statement on Thursday, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed that Hegseth “will be speaking with his top military leaders early next week,” but he provided no further details. Parnell, who is a senior adviser to the defense secretary, expressed no security concerns about The Washington Post’s reporting on the meeting, which is scheduled for Tuesday in Quantico, Virginia.

          It was not immediately clear if the White House is involved in the meeting or if President Donald Trump also intends to attend. A spokesperson referred the questions to the Pentagon.

          There are approximately 800 generals and admirals scattered across the U.S. and dozens of other countries and time zones. According to individuals familiar with the matter, Hegseth’s order applies to all senior officers with the rank of brigadier general or higher, or equivalent in the Navy, serving in command positions and their top advisors. Typically, each of these officers oversees hundreds or thousands of enlisted soldiers.

          Top commanders in conflict zones and senior military leaders stationed in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region are among those expected to participate in Hegseth’s meeting, according to individuals familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter. The order does not apply to senior military officers holding staff positions.
          Advertisement

          ”All generals in the ranks of O-7 to O-10 and their top advisors are encouraged to participate within operational constraints”, the order states, according to a person who has seen a copy. O-7 to O-10 refers to the military’s classification of all generals and admirals.
          None of the individuals who spoke with The Post could recall a defense secretary ever ordering so many of the military’s generals and admirals to gather in this manner. Several said it raised security concerns.
          “People are very worried. They have no idea what it means,” one person said.

          Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Las Garzas presidential palace in Panama City in April. (Franco Brana/AFP/Getty Images)
          Others expressed frustration that even many commanders stationed abroad will need to attend Hegseth’s impromptu summit, and some questioned the wisdom of doing so. ”It will weaken the chain of command if something were to happen”, said a defense official.

          The Department of Defense often uses high-security video conferencing technology that allows military personnel, regardless of their location, to discuss sensitive issues with the White House, the Pentagon, or both. Another person said that it is “not the way it’s done” to order hundreds of military leaders to convene in the same place.
          “Are we pulling all the GOFOs leading their troops and the global force from the Pacific right now?”, said a U.S. official. “All of this is strange.”

      1. Wow, constantly thinking about the general in his exoskeleton suit as he leads the troops against the indigenous people in Avatar. Interestingly, the movie was filmed in a mountainous area in China.

  12. I see that the staff is in the thread again today, good.

    Tomorrow there will be a post about Russian subversive activities with the usual historical anecdotes.

     

  13. ❗️

    https://kyivindependent.com/us-fighters-deployed-after-russian-warplanes-enter-international-airspace-near-alaska/

    published September 25, 2025 6:41 pm

    1/ ⚡️US scrambles jets after Russian warplanes enter international airspace near Alaska.

    NORAD dispatched an E-3, four F-16s, and four KC-135 tankers to track two Russian Tu-95 bombers and two Su-35 fighter jets.

     

    2/ The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) scrambled fighter jets on Sept. 24 to identify Russian aircraft that entered the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), according to a statement.

    The news follows a series of recent Russian airspace violations involving drones and fighter jets breaching the borders of multiple NATO member states.

    NORAD, a joint body guarding the airspace over the U.S. and Canada, dispatched an E-3, four F-16s, and four KC-135 tankers to track two Russian Tu-95 bombers and two Su-35 fighter jets. https://kyivindependent.com/tag/tu-95/

     

    3/ The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace and did not enter the sovereign airspace of the U.S. or Canada, according to the statement.

    https://www.norad.mil/Newsroom/Press-Releases/Article/4314460/norad-detects-and-tracks-russian-aircraft-operating-in-the-alaskan-air-defense/

    NORAD emphasized that such encounters are routine and are not viewed as a “threat.” The ADIZ is a section of international airspace where countries require aircraft to provide identification to monitor and protect national security.

    4/ Russian aircraft frequently enter the ADIZ,

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-bombers-approach-alaskas-air-defense-zone-norad-says/

    5/ These events underscore the enduring geopolitical friction in the Arctic, a region of growing strategic interest for both Russia and NATO. with another similar incident reported on Aug. 27, when the U.S. scrambled fighter jets in preparation for a potential interception.

    In late August, NORAD reported that it had detected and tracked a Russian military reconnaissance aircraft inside the ADIZ — the fourth such incident in just a few days, following three earlier interceptions of similar spy planes in the region

    6/ In early September, Poland shot down

    https://kyivindependent.com/poland-asks-nato-to-invoke-article-4-over-russian-drone-incursion/

    several Russian drones that had entered its airspace, marking the first time NATO forces have downed a Russian drone since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    7/7 Russian fighter jets subsequently entered Estonian airspace,

    https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-asks-nato-to-activate-article-4-after-russian-fighter-jets-violate-airspace/

    and Denmark

    https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-shuts-down-airport-over-suspicious-drone-sightings-for-2nd-time-this-week/

    intercepted unidentified drones near an airport for the second time in a week.

    Speaking alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky at the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, U.S. President Donald Trump urged NATO countries to shoot down Russian drones that violate their airspace.

    The recommendation received support from some officials in Poland and Estonia, who welcomed a firmer stance against the incursions.

    Images and clickable links

    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1971242677665517809?s=46

    or the article https://kyivindependent.com/us-fighters-deployed-after-russian-warplanes-enter-international-airspace-near-alaska/

     

  14. All this attention on drones in Denmark, and still no news about drone observations over Sweden. There must be interest, so either the media is not aware of it or they choose not to write about it. Strange regardless of which option is correct.

  15. All this attention on drones in Denmark, and still no mention of drone observations over Sweden. There must be interest, so either the media is not aware of it or they choose not to write about it. Strange regardless of which option is correct.

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