According to several reports, Ukraine is said to have attacked a combined heat and power plant in the Russian city of Voronezh. Witnesses reportedly heard explosions coming from the power plant and there were also temporary power outages. The attack has not been confirmed yet.
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-rock-voronezh-amid-reports-of-power-plant-attack/
Russian losses
- 970 KWIA
- 5 Tanks
- 1 AFV
- 19 Artillery systems
- 440 UAVs
- 8 Cruise missiles
- 85 Vehicles & fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
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196 combat clashes
4 697 shellings (+100 from MLRS)
Article in Bulletin today about people in Ukraine, especially young people, at risk of losing hope for the future. Depressing reading, but we must see reality as it is. According to the article, it is not only about the war, even though that is obviously the most important. The economy is also difficult. The author is a Ukrainian political scientist. Unfortunately, behind a paywall.
The least one could expect from Europe is to do everything possible to support the Ukrainian economy and living conditions for the Ukrainian people.
https://bulletin.nu/inte-enbart-pa-grund-av-kriget-massutvandringen-fran-ukraina
Locked article, but I agree with you!
Well, as long as the great Ukrainian breakthrough is delayed, one probably understands that it feels hopeless. Time after time, big words and promises come from the West and the USA, only to amount to nothing.
Russia’s ability to endure great human losses and the West’s inability to do anything makes anyone depressed. At the same time, I believe that Russian youth feel even less hope for the future.
The fighting pressure increased noticeably in the north (total of 30 battles).
Pokrovsk escalated while the neighboring areas calmed down and the fighting pressure remains enormous, combined (100 battles). Huliapil in the south is a sector that continues to show interest from the Russian side. 10 battles in the last 24 hours, a number that has been matched/exceeded on several occasions in the past week/weeks.
And 28 non-Russian attacks, slightly higher. Kostyantynivka with an unusually low 9 battles may be a candidate. There has been talk of a counteroffensive in Dobrofilia, which I understand belongs to the area.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 11💥↗️
S Slobozhansky 19💥↗️
Kupyansk 6↘️
Lyman 3↘️
Slovyansk 15💥
Kramatorsk 1↘️
Kostyantynivka 9💥↘️
Pokrovsk 73💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 18💥↘️
Huliaypillia 10💥↗️
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1
update: not Dobrophilia, clearly north of Pokrovsk.
👍
Talk about digging your own grave with full knowledge (that’s how World War II started: cowardice)!
NATO refused to close Ukraine’s airspace out of fear of a direct war with Russia, former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted.
He said that in the first days of the full-scale invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky personally called him and asked NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Stoltenberg explained that he had to refuse — closing the skies would have required destroying Russian air-defense systems in Belarus and Russia, and any air clash would mean direct military conflict between NATO and Moscow.
“If a Russian aircraft entered the sky, we would have to shoot it down — and that would start a full-scale war,” he said.
According to Stoltenberg, the decision was driven by the fear of World War II”
That’s exactly how World War II started, by not taking the bull by the horns from the very beginning.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1987436748780302460?s=46
“Peace through weakness failed against Hitler — and it’s failing against Putin. Peace through strength preserves freedom. Ffs, give Ukrainians all they need to defend themselves.”
https://x.com/lena4berger/status/1987269050892693532?s=46
It is clear that if it goes on for too long, we forget to learn from history.
The Cold War is kept cold due to the balance of terror, the Soviet Union respected the military power of the USA.
Russia probably also respects NATO’s military power (since the USA is included), but as the USA and Europe behave, Russia lacks respect for NATO’s cohesion, and is probably ready to test it eventually.
https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3m575lenvh22d
Regarding the Spjutskaftet coin
Many thanks to everyone who has submitted expressions of interest, provided feedback (both positive and negative), but also shown appreciation for the initiative!
I have now updated and restructured a bit on the website. I have also written two posts, one about the expressions of interest and the feedback received and a bit about the plan. The other one is about the design as I have now had time to look at a reverse side. Those who wish can now also leave comments on the posts.
For those who have not yet submitted an expression of interest, it is still possible to do so. As I have already mentioned, a sufficient number has been received to proceed, but it is of course still interesting to see the level of interest in the planning.
I won’t be too long-winded here, but the project continues and I will update as soon as there is more to communicate.
https://spjutskaftet.se/
“Inside Ukraine’s start-up weapons industry rising from the ashes
As Europe and the US ponder over what arms to send to help the war against Russia, Ukraine is forging ahead with homegrown missiles and drones made from carbon printers and lawnmower engines. World affairs editor Sam Kiley reports from Kyiv”
Boring consequence of the shutdown in the USA.
“❗️Arms sales to NATO allies and Ukraine delayed due to US government shutdown, Axios reports Due to the US federal government shutdown, arms exports worth over $5 billion intended to support NATO allies and Ukraine have been delayed, Axios reports, citing State Department estimates. The delays affected deliveries of AMRAAM missiles, Aegis combat systems, and HIMARS systems to Denmark, Croatia, and Poland, some of which were potentially destined for Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m577mrcoik2n
Heavy pressure on Pokrovsk during the day, already 60 Russian attacks by 4 pm (half of the reporting day). 37 attacks repelled, 23 ongoing. Also, full activity in the south with 10 in Huliapil and 8 in Orikivsk so far. 140 Russian/141 attacks in total by 4 pm.
Crossing my fingers that it will hold even though deep down I find it very hard to believe.
According to information from Jay in Kyiv, the Russians have about 8 times as many soldiers on site and they are losing between 700-800 soldiers per day.
However it turns out, I hope Ukraine can convert as many Russian soldiers as possible into sunflower fertilizer.
Clearly two camps among the analysts. Gregg, David D vs several media (resp Johan) coverage of the battle for the city. In both cases (eg Gregg, CNN), they have been exposed to soldiers’ accounts from the ground. Admittedly first-hand information and of great value in that sense. At the same time, only scattered puzzle pieces. The aggregated information higher up where opsec prevails (ie no interviews) and the given information from there does not directly concern give-up/retreat.
PS think the publish button has been working well for a while now. No issues for a while.
Flamingo least in class m Tomahawk (@hallonsa, X).
Lukoil’s deal to sell their assets to Gunvor, controlled by a Swedish businessman, is not happening.
Joe Blogs talks about it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L7kDb-JHR0
Also, his latest video was quite interesting too, he believes that several countries will follow Belgium’s lead in simply deciding to take over Lukoil’s assets in the country.
https://youtu.be/CPImzCki21c?si=h2Oo6iPGVRoXsPOE
Things are going well now! 😄
Teboil’s service stations in Finland are owned by Lukoil, but they have been buying their fuel from Neste. When the sanctions were announced, the deliveries were stopped, so now the stations are closing down as the fuel runs out if they do not find a new owner. There are around 400 gas stations, of which 80 offer different services.
A short addition to my comment above. I want to remember that Johan No. 1 has pointed out something that Europeans must understand. Namely: One (not so) beautiful day, it may suddenly happen that the Ukrainians can’t endure any longer. They give up and thus allow Putin and Russia to claim a victory. On that day, it will be too late for Europeans to regret not having supported Ukraine more wholeheartedly. That day could basically come at any time.
Johan No.1 has lifted the lid on many things, but it’s just not being talked about at all. Perhaps it’s because it’s a sensitive issue, speculating on what soldiers and the rest of the population might resort to if they are forced to give up, but I really hope it’s a discussion being held among decision-makers in politics, the military, and security organizations.
It could end up with people actually siding with Russia, maybe not such a high improbability, but if it were to happen, Europe would be in a precarious position if Putin decides to escalate. It’s even more likely if it ends with an unjust peace. Soldiers who have fought, seen their comrades killed, and feel betrayed may not be far from joining criminal gangs in Europe and using their skills there.
It’s a dark scenario but not at all impossible. The less time it takes, and if it doesn’t end with a real victory, the higher the likelihood that it will actually happen.
As I said, I hope this is taken into account when refusing to send enough modern weapons, Taurus, etc., and refusing to actively help close the airspace, etc.
You are absolutely right. I have several times thought that Ukraine has simply grown tired of everything that the EU and NATO stand for.
Instead, they are approaching Russia and a revived Warsaw Pact.
That Ukrainians are tired of war is probably certain. If Russia had shown a little willingness to behave like a civilized country, I think Ukraine would have given up.
The fact that Russia continues with its war crimes and lies, and shows no ability to evolve mentally from the Middle Ages, means that they still have the strength to resist.
If Ukraine were to give up, it would result in a flood of refugees heading west. For those who stay behind, I am pretty sure it would be difficult. The country would immediately be cut off from the West. Zelensky and all senior leaders would disappear into some prison and die. The army would be placed under Russian command, and the soldiers would have to choose between fighting for Russia or disappearing into some re-education/torture camp. Ukrainian women would be subjected to heinous rapes, the police force would be under Russian control, so crimes committed by Russians are rarely investigated. Weapon factories would be moved to mother Russia, along with the workers. Schools would be transformed into propaganda factories. Russian would become the main language, all education in Ukrainian and Western languages would be shut down. Etc. Etc.
To live in a Ukraine under Russian rule would be a prison worse than Belarus, because Ukraine has resisted and must therefore be punished and re-educated.
Ukrainians are of course bitter about the West’s behavior, but I don’t think they are ready to fight on Russia’s side against the West. It is not us who are killing their sons, raping their women, and destroying their cities. Our crime is that we have done too little to prevent it, we have done a lot, but not enough.
Regarding whether to fight for Russia or not, it will probably be as you write.
“The army would be placed under Russian command, and the soldiers would have to choose between fighting for Russia or disappearing into some re-education/torture camp.”
The raw material markets have indeed reacted to Trump’s speech as sanctions against buyers of Russian oil. However, the oil market is moderately impressed. Crude initially rose from about 57 to just under 62. Thereafter, it has dropped to just under 60. If the market believed that Russian oil would largely disappear, the reactions would be dramatic.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
(choose scale 1M)
The best one can hope for is probably that Russia will have to give more discounts.
At the same time, perhaps the reactions will come when they come into effect on Nov 21. Before that, maybe one does not want to anticipate it and waits, thinking that it may not even happen.
Trump is not exactly known for setting a line and then sticking to it, tariffs are an example where no one knows how long the current levels will apply.
Yes, I guess we’ll have to wait and see. At least we have the oil traders’ assessment. (Skin in the game as they say.)
“FPV drone footage shows three Russian FAB-500 bombs striking an apartment building in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3m57nfs347s2b
Off-topic
Watched a movie on SVT-play yesterday “Margin Call”. A junior employee in risk management had discovered that the company’s exposure was extremely dangerous. At the meeting table, he was asked about his resume.
PhD from MIT on how friction affects the control of a satellite (type). Someone at the table remarked: So you are a rocket scientist. He replied: “I was”. But the job in the financial industry was more profitable.
Decent movie. Damn if those depicted in the movie weren’t more human than in reality. But I have no experience with such companies.
Good morning!
1090 KWIA
7 Tanks
7 AFVs
9 Artillery systems
57 UAVs
77 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
Glory to Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3m5awsfsvzk2t