The war in Ukraine continues, and on the second to last day of the year, Ukraine continues to inflict economic losses on Russia by targeting the most crucial aspect of their economy. Their “black gold” oil accounts for approximately 50% of their export income and about 30% of their state revenue. This includes both crude oil and other petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, etc.
If Ukraine can maintain the same pace as they have over the past six months, combined with the deteriorating state of Russia’s economy, it is not impossible that 2026 could be the year when Russia faces such serious problems that they struggle to continue the war. However, one should not underestimate dictatorships that can push their population quite far, and we cannot ignore China, which does not want to see Russia lose. Perhaps they will hold out until 2027.
It seems increasingly positive and clear that Ukraine will emerge victorious from this war of attrition. It’s just a matter of Trump staying out of the way and not causing any trouble, as he appears to be the biggest threat, only thinking of himself and therefore siding with Putin because he believes he has the most to gain there.
The Oil Refinery in Tuapse
Regarding the oil refinery in the Russian city of Tuapse, it is reported that the ELOU-AVT-12 unit is on fire. This is the main distillation column. The refinery was modernized some time ago with a new AVT-12 unit, which has the same capacity as the entire refinery. This means that the refinery is most likely the new unit that has been hit, and also that refineries only have one such distillation unit. If the Ukrainian attack has caused extensive damage and the unit needs to be replaced, the refinery will not produce anything for a long time. The refinery is one of the larger ones, with reports stating a production of 12MT per year.
Article from Kyiv Independent
Oil Depots
There isn’t much information available about the oil depots, but apparently Ukraine has attacked two, one in Rovenki and another in Rybinsk. You can find posts here and here. It’s hard to say how many tanks are burning, but it seems to be quite a blaze.
Russian Losses in the War in Ukraine
There is nothing particularly noteworthy in the reporting, losses are within normal range.
- 1000 KWIA
- 4 Tanks
- 4 AFVs
- 33 Artillery
- 1 MLRS
- 552 UAVs
- 127 Vehicles & fuel tanks
- 1 Special equipment
Russian Activities in Ukraine
The numbers are rather average here, except for suicide drones, which are relatively high, although far from the record.
- 149 skirmishes
- 85 Airstrikes (3 robots)
- 165 KAB
- 3,495 Grenades (62 from MLRS)
- 5,791 Suicide drones
Russian Drone Attacks
Ukraine’s air defense managed to shoot down 101 out of 127 drones (of which 80 were Shahed), which is approximately 80%.
This is the last post of the year from my side, so I would like to take this opportunity to thank all readers and everyone who comments by wishing:
Happy New Year!
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
More movies and pictures from Ukraine’s attacks on oil refineries, depots, etc.:
“🔥👀 In Tuapse, according to preliminary data, the AVT-12 unit is on fire, a key unit of primary oil processing at the local refinery, which is responsible for atmospheric-vacuum distillation of raw materials. With a capacity of about ~12 million tons per year, — DroneBomber”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mbafgt3lxc26
“BAVOVNA in Tuapse 🔥👀”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mbabiwzric2z
“Tuapse, situation.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbadvjhqkk2p
“Tuapse 🎅🏻🎄🔥”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mbablizu6s2z
“❗️This morning, the Federal State Treasury Institution “Kombinat ‘Temp'” of the Federal Agency for State Reserves — a state facility for storing fuel and lubricants as part of the Rosrezerv system,”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mbbdq6ywic2g
“2/located in the eastern industrial zone of 🇷🇺Rybinsk (Yaroslavl Oblast, Russian Federation), near the settlement of Kopayevo — was attacked.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mbbdq6zi2s2g
“Yaroslavl Oblast, Rybinsk metro station, the Temp Plant, a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve Agency, was attacked. Geolocation: 58°01’30″N 38°56’41″E”
https://bsky.app/profile/gsfxedge.bsky.social/post/3mbbdd6uoek2m
“Rovenki, the moment of strike 💥”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mba5u4viu22w
“🔥💥 Rovenki, Luhansk Region. Locals report an attack on an oil depot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mba3yddz6c2t
Even Russia carried out attacks against Ukraine, but as usual, they are targeting the civilian population.
“‘Russia is targeting civilians’ — Casualties, outages reported following Russian drone strikes on residential buildings in Odesa”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-is-targeting-civilians-russian-drones-strike-residential-building-in-odesa-outages-reported/
This is what Ukraine’s path to victory looks like!
“The Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian infrastructure are becoming more and more frequent. In December, they reached a new record of 26 strikes, as of the 24th. This information comes from Bloomberg. Since Christmas, 7 more Russian oil and gas facilities have been targeted.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mbbdzosq5c2t
Off-Topic, China – Taiwan
The danger is probably not over yet, but regardless of whether nothing happens, they have shown the USA and the rest of the world that they now seem to have the capacity to isolate Taiwan from the outside world and that it will cost to break a seriously intended blockade.
“Chinese forces have now begun to withdraw from the areas around Taiwan after the extensive military exercise of recent days, Reuters writes. However, China has not formally announced the end of the exercise and Taiwan’s military remains on high alert.
According to Taiwan, 77 Chinese military aircraft and 25 ships from the navy and coast guard operated near the island during the exercise, described as the largest of its kind so far.
China has referred to the exercise as a “sharp warning” both to what they call “Taiwanese separatists” and to Taiwan’s allies around the world.”
https://omni.se/kina-drar-sig-tillbaka-efter-massiva-ovningen/a/6qje2L
Interesting long read:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/30/world/europe/ukraine-war-us-russia.html
This one was so good that I had to post it:
Off-Topic, US Politics
Another success for the Democrats.
“Democrat Renee Hardman has won the special election for Iowa’s senate, becoming the state’s first black female senator, reports the Des Moines Register. At the same time, the victory means that the Republicans miss the opportunity to regain a so-called supermajority in the senate, that is, two-thirds of the seats.
Hardman campaigned on lower living costs and on cutting a controversial grant for families with children in private schools.
Hardman defeated Republican Lucas Loftin with 71 percent of the votes.
The election is the latest in a series of Democratic victories at the local level after Donald Trump took office as president, and many Democrats are now hoping for major successes in next year’s midterm elections to Congress.”
https://omni.se/demokrat-blir-iowas-forsta-svarta-kvinnliga-senator/a/43ql5G
Off-Topic, weather and electricity prices
Stay at home if you don’t have to go out!
Typical that Gävle always shows up when you warn about the weather, here the snowflakes have just started to fall. Looks like the first days of the year will be spent shoveling snow.
“SMHI’s warning for snowfall on New Year’s Day now includes the southernmost Norrland and large parts of Svealand, after the warning was expanded.
– If you don’t really have to go out, you should stay at home, says Viktor Bergman, on-duty meteorologist at SMHI, to Aftonbladet.
In the area around Sundsvall, there is also an orange warning for snowfall combined with wind, which “can cause traffic problems,” the authority writes.
The areas include Stockholm, Uppsala, Gävle, and Örebro, writes Expressen.”
https://omni.se/smhi-utvidgar-varningen-till-stora-delar-av-svealand/a/Okp1nb
We can console ourselves with having had a warm year, even if it only reaches third place!
“During the past year, temperature records have been broken in several places around the world, reports AFP referring to the EU’s climate service Copernicus. In the African Sahel region, Central Asia, and northern Europe, the average temperature for a year has never been higher.
For Europe, the summer was extremely hot in the southern parts. Ten countries had temperatures above or near their record highs. In the Balkans, summer temperatures were locally three degrees above normal.
Northern Europe avoided summer heatwaves but instead experienced an extremely mild autumn.
2025 is shaping up to be the third warmest year since measurements began, after 2024 and 2023.”
https://omni.se/400-advokater-granskar-5-2-miljoner-epsteindokument/a/16n0kW
To top it off, in addition to the weather, residents in electricity area 3 are also affected by high electricity prices.
Both nuclear power and wind power underperformed last year.
Could solar power be the new black? 😄
“Sweden’s electricity consumption decreased this year as well, despite electrification, writes TT.
Well-filled water reservoirs led to record-low prices in the north during the summer, and overall electricity prices in the region fell by 30 percent during the year. In electricity areas 3 and 4 (Svealand and Götaland), electricity instead became 25 percent more expensive, according to preliminary figures from the Energy Companies.
Limited transmission capacity is behind the development, according to Energy Companies analyst Magnus Thorstensson.
Hydropower increased by far the most during the year and more than in 2024, while solar power set new records. Nuclear power had a worse year, mainly due to the more than six-month shutdown of the Oskarshamn plant. Wind power also decreased compared to last year.”
https://omni.se/rekordlaga-elpriser-i-norr-25-procent-dyrare-i-soder/a/9pvWv9
Hm, the issue of reduced electricity consumption has two sides. Efficiency is good, but the relocation of energy-intensive industries abroad is not so good.
Electrification of the vehicle fleet increases electricity consumption.
Replacing oil boilers with heat pumps also increases electricity consumption.
If all the light bulbs in the house are switched to LED, the electricity consumption for lighting decreases, while the consumption for heating increases due to reduced heat loss in the form of warmth. However, overall consumption decreases slightly.
Replacing street and road lighting with LED reduces electricity consumption.
Solar panels on the roof reduce daytime electricity consumption from spring to autumn.
I believe that the largest part of the reduction in consumption comes from the closure of industries, or reduced activity within the industry. Some from solar panels.
Perhaps one should look for figures on that when time allows.
Interesting. In the border areas of Halland/Småland was the world’s second largest newsprint mill, Stora Enso Hylte AB. It is now closed. People no longer read paper newspapers. It was Halland’s second largest energy consumer. Where has that energy gone? Electricity area 4.
It seems like you’ve seen a lot of movies where Ukraine takes out radar stations. I wonder if it might soon become scarce among the Russians.
“Russian ST-68 radar system receives a direct hit by FP-1/FP-2 guided drone with 50/100kg warhead.”
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mbbijb3q3k2s
🚨🚀 In 2025, Russia launched over 60,000 guided aerial bombs, about 2,400 missiles of various types, and over 100,000 drones over Ukraine. Air alerts warnings were sounded at least 19,033 times, — United24.”
😎🔥 The specialists from the SBS were not joking. Up to 10 important objects were hit in the temporarily occupied territories alone:
▪️ Rovenki oil depot
▪️ 92nd river boat brigade’s floating base in Olenivka
▪️ ST-68 three-coordinate radar station in Olenivka
▪️Three deployment points of the Rubicon-D special forces unit in Selydove
▪️Two deployment points of manpower (74th motorized rifle brigade, 589th motorized rifle brigade) in Selydove
▪️ Melitopol airfield
▪️ Molochansk airfield, Zaporizhzhia region
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mbbi6eud7s2b
Brinner fint!
“More footage is surfacing from the burning oil depot in Rybinsk. Another hit deep inside Russia.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbbjlyobvk2g
“❗️The enemy does not fully control Hulyaipole, — Defense Forces South The Defense Forces are detecting and destroying enemy assault groups, as well as conducting strike and search operations.”
The refinery continues to burn as well!
“More footage has emerged of the Rosneft Tuapse oil refinery in flames after a Ukrainian drone strike last night. According to ASTRA, the attack also damaged a port pier, homes, and a gas pipeline. Two civilians were injured.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbbjjdfdq22g
The video is a 1:16 compilation of Ukrainian drone strikes in snowy Huliaipole. Key frames show:
– Targeting isolated soldiers or small groups in fields/roads, with explosions (e.g., “Destruction of infantry group”).
– Strikes on vehicles, buildings, and positions, causing fires and smoke.
– Close-ups of impacts on bunkers and trenches.
Graphic content with Russian subtitles detailing each hit. Ukrainian emblem overlays.
https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/2006204310317609033/video/1
if reports are true.. 600+ russians have been killed in hulp…..
that could be over 1/3 of the entire russian force.. in under 5 days….
this could trap tens of thousands of russians in a freezing hellscape of death for months..
“For nearly four years, many have been saying that Russia’s economy is about to collapse under the pressure of Western sanctions and the war. Yet it has continued to function.
Aleksandr Kolyandr, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, notes that economic growth fueled by massive spending on the defense sector has virtually come to a halt.
Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) is now publishing figures that are far from reassuring for the Kremlin.
In November, industrial output turned negative. Across the economy as a whole, production fell by 0.7% year on year, while manufacturing – for the first time since February 2023 – slipped into contraction, down 1%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, output shrank by 2.5% month on month, pointing not to a one-off disruption but to the start of a sustained cooling.
Formally, industrial production for January-November still shows resilience, posting growth of 0.8%. But this growth is driven by a narrow set of sectors and increasingly fails to reflect the economy’s real condition.
Civilian industries slide into recession
A 0.7% increase in mining output masks a deep downturn outside the raw materials sector. For the first time in 15 years, food production declined, with the drop accelerating from 0.2% in October to 0.8% in November. Wood processing fell sharply (-9.1%), as did the chemical industry (-1.7%), furniture manufacturing (-7.5%), and clothing production (-2.4%).
In machinery and equipment, the situation is close to collapse. Output of tractors plunged by 61.6%, bulldozers by 53.7%, elevators by 37.2%, and passenger railcars by half. The automotive industry has reverted to its worst levels of 2022, recording a 34.1% decline.
According to estimates by experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, civilian industries have cut output by nearly 5% since the start of the year, while virtually all the growth reported by Rosstat has come from the military-industrial complex and mining.
Guns or butter?
Even the defense sector, which has been operating in an overheated mode, is beginning to lose momentum. Output of “fabricated metal products” – the category Rosstat uses to classify military goods – fell by 1.6% in November. A year earlier, this segment had been growing by more than 30%. Production of “other transport equipment,” including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, slowed from 41% growth in October to just 6.4%.
Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, notes that for the first time since the war began, the Kremlin is facing a real choice between “guns and butter.” The economy is no longer capable of sustaining growth in both the defense sector and the civilian economy at the same time.
Not a temporary downturn
Olga Belenkaya, an economist at the investment company Finam, links the slowdown to tight monetary policy, labor shortages, declining exports, and a strong ruble.
In an article for The Spectator, Aleksandr Kolyandr emphasizes that the current stagnation is structural rather than cyclical. In his words, oil revenues in recent years have been directed not toward investment and productivity growth, but toward missiles and tanks that will be burned in Ukraine.
This has created a two-tier economy: the defense sector and “everything else,” where civilian industry is being squeezed by high interest rates and rising costs.
Darker clouds ahead?
The Russian government has already cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. The World Bank expects at least three years of stagnation for Russia, while economists Aleksashenko, Inozemtsev, and Nekrasov predict stagnation lasting until the mid-2030s.
Janis Kluge, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, notes that most of the factors that supported the economy in the first years of the war – high commodity prices and a consumer boom – have already disappeared.
As a result, Russia is now in its weakest economic position since the start of the war.
Russia’s economy is entering a phase in which the old growth model no longer works, and compensating for this through military orders is becoming increasingly difficult. :
Russia PMI Manufacturing, monthly dynamics and quarter averages/ Yevgeny Istrebin
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2006292144957333535
💥🔥👍✊
“💥 Tver region, near Pyatnikha, the SRTO-Torzhok gas pipeline may have been attacked. SRTO-Torzhok gas pipeline is a major gas trunkline in Russia, part of the Unified Gas Transmission System, which plays a key role in transporting natural gas from Western Siberian fields…” https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mbbmffnpfs2p
🥴 Trump called Kellogg an “idiot” after the latter publicly described Zelensky as “a brave man who is forced to fight,” according to The New York Times. Trump: “So you’re calling Zelensky a man who’s in a tough spot and brave?”
Kellogg: “Yes, sir… On Ukrainian soil, there’s a fight for his country’s survival. When was the last time an American president faced something like that? It was Abraham Lincoln.” Later, recounting this episode to other advisers, Trump muttered: “He’s an idiot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mbbolcyte22m
Hm, as Forrest Gump said “Stupid is what stupid does..” Trump doesn’t like when someone disrupts his fantasies by telling the truth. Kellogg is smart and on the right side of reality, and when Trump, (or was it Putin) noticed that, Kellogg, who started as a special envoy for Ukraine, was no longer allowed to participate in discussions about Ukraine. He was quickly replaced by the friend of Russia and the special envoy for the Middle East, Shitkopf, who had to step in instead.
I don’t understand who cares! It wouldn’t be more than fair if they were to blow up the entire summer cottage.
“Russia has released a film claiming to show the drone that the country alleges Ukraine used to attack Vladimir Putin’s summer residence, writes AP.
The video shows a drone, filmed at night, lying in a wooded area.
According to Ukraine, all claims of attempting to attack Putin’s residence are false and aimed at sabotaging the ongoing peace talks.”
https://omni.se/ryssland-slapper-video-pa-dronare-fran-pastadd-attack/a/wrPJn1
Oerhört drag bland kommentarerna här i dag!
Tur jag inte har Monofobi! 😄
Nu pausar jag och går ut och skottar innan det är dags att förbereda nyårsfirandet!
Waiting for The Old One is often boring, especially on a cold gray winter like this. But it is rarely in vain.
Monophobia, is there such a thing?, is there Stereophobia too?, that would be tough.
It’s good that you’re here commenting anyway, so there’s something to start from for those of us who come in later in the day, here the wife took care of the shoveling while I was working. Otherwise, not much shoveling so far this winter.
Now it’s probably time for me to help out a bit with the preparations for the New Year’s dinner.
Happy New Year! and I suspect there will probably be things to write about and discuss next year as well it seems.