Ukraine has attacked more targets in Russia tonight – Depot, bearing factory, and petrochemical plant are reported to have been hit

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Ukraine carried out a comprehensive attack inside Russia last night, and although not everything is confirmed, we can already conclude that it was successful.
Here is what has been reported so far, but more information may come during the day:

  • Local residents report that the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant (SNKhZ) has been attacked, with more than 6 explosions (link).
  • Residents in Penza report hearing at least five explosions, and preliminary information suggests that a ball bearing factory may have been hit (link).
  • There are unconfirmed reports in Usman that drones may have hit the oil refinery and caused a fire, but most reports indicate that it was a depot, Mistev, that was hit (link). The refinery should be considered rumors, but hopefully we can get confirmations for that as well.
  • In Tver, Russian sources report that a high-rise building was hit and one person was killed.

More information can be found at Kyiv Independent

Russian Losses in Ukraine

Not very high losses but a good mix of both MLRS and air defense. The war in Ukraine continues steadily to wear down the Russian military.

  • 940 KIA
  • 5 Tanks
  • 6 AFVs
  • 46 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 1 Anti-air defense systems
  • 879 UAVs
  • 157 Vehicles & fuel tanks

Russian Activities in Ukraine

The trend seems to persist more long-term with fewer grenades but a high number of suicide drones. When it comes to drones, the earlier trend of constant increase has stopped, where we reached a peak of around 6200 per day on a seven-day average in September. It has since fluctuated up and down but at a lower level. In recent days, it has increased again, and we are now at an average of 5,700 over seven days.
We hope for Ukraine’s sake that Russia has reached the peak concerning suicide drones and that the numbers will soon fall back down, or if unfortunately, we are seeing an upward trend that may continue and surpass the previous highest levels.

  • 191 Clashes
  • 65 Airstrikes (including 9 drones)
  • 194 KAB
  • 3,808 grenades (including 101 from MLRS)
  • 6,864 Suicide drones

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30 thoughts on “Ukraine has attacked more targets in Russia tonight – Depot, bearing factory, and petrochemical plant are reported to have been hit”

  1. 205

    The number of Russian attacks on Huliaypillia has increased.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
    S Slobozhansky 5↘️
    Kupyansk 3
    Lyman 9💥
    Slovyansk 7
    Kramatorsk 0
    Kostjantynivka 21💥
    Pokrovsk 43💥💥↘️
    Oleksandrivskij 14💥↘️
    Huliaypillia 46💥💥💥↘️
    Orikhivsk 2↘️
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2

    Sum sectors 152↘️
    Unlocalized 39↗️
    Total 191↘️

  2. MXT

    “Ironclad” Russian air defense — until it’s actually needed. The U.S. Defense Secretary mocked Putin after the Caracas operation: “those Russian air defenses didn’t work quite so well, did they?” Putin’s “protection” for Maduro is turning into a punchline. 😅”

  9. MXT

    🌐 Putin and Xi Jinping are quite happy with the American president, who has become distracted by the Western Hemisphere and, perhaps, stuck there, — against the background of the attention of Russia to Ukraine and China to Taiwan, — Reuters.

    Xi Jinping would be ready to sacrifice Chinese influence in Venezuela, if in return Beijing received a free hand regarding Taiwan, and Russia would make a similar agreement regarding Ukraine.

  10. 205

    Saknas ett tydligt stöd för R2P här och andra ställen.

     

    R2P 🇺🇳

    The principle of the responsibility to protect is based upon the underlying premise that sovereignty entails a responsibility to protect all populations from mass atrocity crimes and human rights violations.[4][5][6] The principle is based on a respect for the norms and principles of international law, especially the underlying principles of law relating to sovereignty, peace and security, human rights, and armed conflict.[7][8] The R2P has three pillars:

    1. Pillar I: The protection responsibilities of the state – “Each individual state has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity”
    2. Pillar II: International assistance and capacity-building – States pledge to assist each other in their protection responsibilities
    3. Pillar III: Timely and decisive collective response – If any state is “manifestly failing” in its protection responsibilities, then states should take collective action to protect the population.[9][10]

    Punkt 3 har USA uppfyllt men inte någon annan, ifråg om 1) Venezuelas befolkning som med hjälp av FSB i tiotals år mördat och förtryckt befolkningen och lett till en större massflykt än den från Ukraina, trots man hade en mindre befolkning, 2) Ukrainas befolkning (tillverkning av Shaheds, minor och annan krigsmateriel som flygs direkt till Ryssland), och 3) kanske även Rysslands ekonomi då ett återupptagande av Venezuelas oljeproduktion till nivåer enligt kvot kommer att kraftigt skada Rysslands ekonomi. Vilket kan leda till missnöje med den ryska ledningen.

     

    Men ett tydligt nej härifrån och från andra håll.

  11. MXT

    The Danish politician and parliament member Lars-Christian Brask tells Sky News that Denmark takes the American threats against Greenland very seriously, but they do not fear an invasion to occur.

    “It’s not that we are afraid of Greenland or Denmark being invaded by the USA.

    He also calls Donald Trump a bully and says that it’s hard to imagine that the USA would actually carry out the threats and invade, considering the partnership the countries have had over the past 80 years.”

    1. MXT

      “Many Greenlanders are tired of the recurring American statements about taking over the island. Few seem to believe that the USA will actually intervene militarily, according to islanders interviewed by the news agency TT.

      – How long have we not heard this now? Nothing has happened. I’m not afraid, says Sørine Pedersen from her home in Aasiaat in southwestern Greenland.

      She is one of the Greenlanders who wish for more independence from Denmark – without becoming a part of the USA. Even local experts downplay the actual threat of a physical invasion, reports Radio Greenland.

      But Hans Peder Kirkegaard, a researcher in security policy and former advisor to the Greenlandic government, sees another, greater threat.

      – It’s not difficult to divide the country between those who prefer the Danes and those who would rather see Greenland become American. This polarization is the weapon in the new hybrid war.”
      https://omni.se/gronlandare-har-trottnat-pa-trump-ar-inte-radd/a/9pv9l9

  12. MXT

    Russian favorite secures power in CAR for the third time
    The incumbent president Faustin-Archange Touadéra has declared victory after last week’s election in the Central African Republic (CAR), reports Reuters. He is thus re-elected for a third term.

    Touadéra is close to Russia and during his rule, the Kremlin has been given access to large natural resources such as gold and diamonds in exchange for protection from the Russian Wagner Group.

    The largest opposition group boycotted the election following allegations of unfair political conditions, writes Africanews. However, there have been no extensive reports of fraud from the international election observers present.

    According to Reuters, Touadéra likely won the election due to his relatively good control over the country’s state institutions and his significant financial resources. The BBC adds that his ability to create security in the country likely contributed.

  13. MXT

    Off-Topic, weather

    Being out at sea in -40 degrees doesn’t sound like much fun, even aside from the risk of freezing solid! Just went out to shovel, looks like it’ll be needed again soon. 🤷‍♂️
    Well, well, there’s still a long way to go back to how it was in ’98.

    “The cold intensifies in northern Sweden on Tuesday and SMHI now warns that ships at sea may freeze as the temperature approaches record low levels.

    “In central and northernmost Norrland, the cold high pressure remains, with calm, partly cloudy weather and the cold becomes even more severe, locally expecting 40 degrees below zero,” SMHI writes in a comment to TT.

    At the same time, snowfall is warned of in areas including Stockholm, Östergötland, Dalarna, and southeastern Norrland. In the Gävle area, which has already seen major traffic disruptions in the storm, up to an additional 30 centimeters is expected.”
    https://omni.se/smhi-varnar-sjotrafiken-40-minus-vantar-i-norr/a/3pJAlA

     

    1. MXT

      “E4 between Hudiksvall and Söderhamn is closed in the northbound direction after trucks and cars collided. According to the Swedish Transport Administration’s forecast, the road will be closed until 3:30 PM.

      The road conditions in the area are difficult after heavy snowfall, and several accidents have occurred in Gävleborg County in a short period of time. On national road 50 between Söderhamn and Bollnäs near Överbo, a car and a truck collided. On E4 at Höljebro, several vehicles were involved in an accident, leading to limited traffic in the southbound direction.

      At the time of writing, there is no information about personal injuries in connection with the accidents.

      Aftonbladet has spoken with Nellie Gunnarsson who has been stuck in traffic on E4. She describes the situation as “scary”:

      – There have been stationary cars, no visibility, long queues, and enormous amounts of snow. Many lay-bys, turnarounds, and so on were not plowed, she says.”
      https://omni.se/e4-avstangd-efter-olycka/a/K83V57

    2. Proxima

      MXT often comes across interesting and worth reading posts. Such as the one above about the weather. Minus 40 degrees and a storm over the Baltic Sea is the worst thing that can happen to a ship.
      The Cape Horn passage under sail was certainly no easy task, but I am sure that everyone who was at sea at that time preferred Cape Horn over the narrow waters of the Gulf of Bothnia, the northern and southern Quark, and the Sea of Åland where storms made the sea rise up over the undersails, forming a continuously growing ice armor in the rigging. This also applies to modern ships. Here, it is necessary to seek a port of distress to chip away the ice. Otherwise, it’s the end for the boat and crew.

        2. MXT

          For old sailing ships, it was risky in many ways.

          If it blows hard and there is rough seas, the ice could quickly build up high in the rigging (on masts, sails, and rigging) and it could also unevenly cover the deck depending on where the sea and winds came from.

          If the ice couldn’t be removed, the sheer weight, if it had a high center of gravity or was unevenly distributed, could cause the ships to list and in the worst case scenario start taking in water or simply capsize and sink.

          Another problem was that rigging, blocks, pulleys, sails, and even the rudder simply froze together from the ice and became difficult if not impossible to work with, eventually rendering the ship unmanageable.

          Water finding its way into tight spaces and then freezing and expanding could also cause direct “burst damage” to the ship and the equipment at that time when everything was made of wood.

          On land, you can get sued if you forget to sand the sidewalk, so you can imagine what it was like back then to work at night during rough seas on an ice-covered ship, and by the way, even now. No job for the faint-hearted!

          1. Proxima

            Regarding Gävle in wintertime.
            We made a trip from Bohus to Gävle with caustic soda. The broker in Gävle was Stefan Trybom and the owner of the cargo was Almér or Almén. A sympathetic gentleman who owned some tanks at the old oil port.
            We had headwinds the whole journey and when we entered the southern Baltic Sea, the ice formation began. The poop deck looked like a small castle, the anchor winches were hidden in several decimeters thick ice. The tugboats in Gävle had as usual broken a channel so we docked at the far end of the old oil dock. But it was a makeshift mooring from the shore as the ropes were also packed in thick ice. I remember the whole crew (even the cook) chopping ice the night before we arrived in Gävle.

    3. MXT

      Wondering if Johan No.1 is still stuck and waiting to get going. Seems to be some problems here and there with snowfall.

      “40 percent of flights to and from Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport are canceled between 09 and 14 on Wednesday due to the snow. This is reported by France’s Minister of Transport, Philippe Tabarot, according to French media.

      The same applies to 25 percent of flights to and from Paris-Orly between 06 and 13.

      Orange snow warnings are issued in 38 French departments on Wednesday, mainly in the northern and central parts of the country.”
      https://omni.se/40-procent-av-parisflyg-stalls-in/a/5p02WW

    1. 205

      As the article mentions, Siviersk and Huliaipole have been rapid conquests for the Russians in the very latest period. This is due to the level of competence of the units responsible for the defense of the areas which have been considered less prioritized areas in the shadow of the hotter attack sectors assigned to better-trained units by AFU. There has been no huge increase in attacks in Siviersk during the period November 1 — January 5, on the other hand, there is a clear increase in attacks in Huliaipole during the same period. Both sectors have lost approximately the same amount of territory to the Russians. Huliaipole: 280 sq km, 1030 attacks, Siviersk: 280 sq km, 602 attacks.

      Instead of a fixed period, one can certainly narrow down the time period for each area considering the changes in DeepState and maybe then come up with different attack figures. The map for Huliaipole and Siviersk may have different start and end dates for the current changes.

       


      Huliaipole November 1, 2025 — January 5, 2026

      Siviersk November 1, 2025 — January 5, 2026

      — DeepState, AFU

  16. 205

    Russian attacks (AFU’s frontline report): Advancing in the northeast. Maintained very strong pressure in Huliaipole and Pokrovsk.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3↗️
    S Slobozhansky 15💥↗️
    Kupyansk 7↗️
    Lyman 18💥↗️
    Slovyansk 4↘️
    Kramatorsk 6↗️
    Kostjantynivka 18💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 44💥💥💥
    Oleksandrivskij 13💥
    Huliaipole 48💥💥💥
    Orikhivsk 0
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1

    Sum sectors 177↗️
    Unlocalized 44↗️
    Total 221↗️

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