Ukraine spring offensive, March 19, 2026

The other day you got the roadmap to eternal peace and today it’s Ukraine, because the media isn’t writing anything except for an upcoming Russian spring offensive and all the terror bombing, many are probably missing what’s happening right now in the undergrowth.

I’m also starting to run out of time, and saving and pasting the sources in the posts takes me over an hour per post, so that part is gone now – so you’ll have to google the claims I make, which is kind of pointless because everything I write is true, but you have that option. It simply hasn’t been possible to generate a higher willingness to pay that could translate into more time to write, so we’ll continue like this from now on.

Just in passing – we have now reached level two in Iran and especially Israel is fighting against IRGC, Bashij, and the police’s ability to oppress citizens down to deploying drones in stationary and mobile individual patrols out on the streets. So, they are done with SEAD and the Iranian missile launchers where fired missiles have decreased by 90% since the start of the war.

If you’ve reached the level of hunting lazy police in street corners, you’ve come a long way on the target list spreadsheet.

They have also targeted the banks so that salaries cannot be paid out to the creatures of the dictatorship, and the Shah has activated his “immortal guard,” which seems to be anyone willing that Israel previously armed. The first shot IRGC/Bashij patrols have been reported, and we have seen some videos of masked individuals pledging their allegiance to freedom and prosperity with a weapon in hand.

IRGC and Bashij have now also discovered what the drone weapon is, as they hid under the bridges but are now being combated horizontally with drones, like hunted prey.

Citizens are overwhelming the portal where they report targets to Israel, and Israel is now calling up members of the IRGC, Bashij, and the police with the message that it’s time to choose between death or life.

Israeli as well as probably US Special Operations Forces are already in the country – we know for sure about Israel, but the US might still want to keep it a bit secret.

The other day you saw statues falling, and it’s always a bit symbolic, but I guess the plan is roughly this –

The citizens take over smaller towns in the provinces, and then Israel lurks on the IRGC column trying to reach for reinforcements, and a lot of death follows. Rinse and repeat in the next city.

The A10 has just been brought to bases in the Gulf, and they are effective against long lines of vehicles.

The freedom fighters can move freely, but the IRGC, police, and Bashij cannot move freely at all, and that’s how it will look in the coming period as the revolution advances.

Israel has a stunning campaign against the army to try to win them over, so individual units will probably join the protesters at first – they also have families who tell the stories of shot and abused relatives.

At some point, it will be like breaking spaghetti, as we said, and we will see all the private jets leaving Tehran. What the regime probably has already done is to send out families with their fortunes but stay themselves and have an exit plan they believe in – the land route to Pakistan seems like something that should be blocked?

It’s only a matter of time before the regime falls, according to Johan No.1’s strong opinion, anything else is unreasonable unless the USA goes and makes peace with the regime, but Israel doesn’t want that at all, so the likelihood of it happening is low. Those who argue that the war is lost do so out of ideological blinders or because they are rooting for the evil team, which isn’t much better.

The war might have looked different if Iran had carried out the first strike they had the opportunity for until February 26 this year, but now they didn’t, so they have lost.

The terror bombing of surrounding countries will then cease, but terrorist acts that have now started will probably continue for a while just for the sake of it before they also die out, and peace settles in the world.

The terrorist attacks against the West and Jews here started off with a bang, and Iran paid the gangs in Sweden to carry out murders, again. Enough to prosecute them for collaborating with a foreign power, on top of the gang laws if our legal system ever gets a bit of civil courage.

Back to Ukraine.

I get a good feeling about 2022, a bit like when you sit down in front of a good movie you haven’t seen on Netflix yet with a bowl of barbecue chips, fridge-cold ranch dip, and a row of long cans of Mariestad beer in the fridge that are starting to get foggy.

By the end of summer 2022, the Russian special operation collapsed completely, and before the damn Russians had time to panic mobilize, Zalizhny wanted to attack down along the Dnieper in a poorly defended area and cut off the entire remaining VDV located on the other side of the Dnieper around Kherson.

The USA saw where it was heading and stopped the adventure, so Ukraine did the next best thing and recaptured the Kharkiv region and its surroundings instead.

They broke through immediately with mechanized forces, and Putin’s elite 3rd Army corps with all the latest equipment fled back across the border to Russia. There, they were safe because Ukraine had strict orders not to attack any targets inside Russia.

Russia’s string of air and army bases just on their side of the Russian border was completely safe after the morally superior West had decided for Ukraine with threats of withdrawn support.

This was preceded by very accurate Ukrainian deep strikes where they targeted higher staff and took them out during staff meetings – Gerasimov escaped with a heavily bandaged rear end.

It went so well that at some point, the USA stopped giving Ukraine target lists and would approve every target hit with weapons they had delivered, or weapons that had a component from a US manufacturer.

Storm Shadow promised to the British could be used inside Russian territory, for example, but since the navigation function came from a US manufacturer, the USA prohibited it, and the British had to turn back.

Ukraine wanted to continue into Russia in winter 2023, but then Europe chickened out, and the USA got what they wanted, so the opportunity to take down the exhausted bear was probably gone somewhere around there, I guess.

That’s when Belgium started showing that they were infiltrated because they were one of the countries that complained the most about Ukraine attacking into Russia.

Then the USA didn’t dare to take any chances, so they sabotaged the spring offensive by leaking the Ukrainian battle plans directly to Russia, and the coup that was supposed to happen in parallel succeeded, so everything ended in three years of war and indescribable suffering.

Since Ukraine effectively fought against the Russian artillery, so they only had the FAB traps left for indirect fire before the drone weapon really started, the USA effectively stopped all of Europe’s attempts to provide top-of-the-line aircraft to Ukraine – when we tried to send the Gripen, the USA waved the contract and threatened us with a lawsuit.

It may also have been the case that Sweden promised Gripen to engage targets in Russia and that’s why the USA stopped it – one of the two was the reason.

At times, Ukraine knocked out “mother depots” in occupied areas in 2022 and 2023 to silence the artillery, at that time artillery was dominant.

The USA prohibited Ukraine from engaging the airfields in Russia and the Iskander platforms so that Russia could continue its indirect fire but from new platforms.

All to prevent Ukraine from gaining the upper hand.

At times, the USA then directly stopped military support when things started going too well, and Johan No.1’s predictions were proven wrong – everything was rigged against Ukraine’s favor, which was incomprehensible to me but for the USA, it is statistically certain that they were and have been since 2022.

Europe is starting to change its stance, but we are too anxious and still dependent on Ukraine taking the full blow even if we are no longer actively sabotaging.

But now we have come full circle and are back in the fall of 2022 again WITHOUT THE GAME BEING RIGGED AGAINST UKRAINE’S DISADVANTAGE in the same way as before, a completely new situation to deal with accordingly.

What do we know –

-The other day, Ukraine shot down everything that crossed the border, hundreds of drones and a large number of robots. It’s quite a feat, the Gulf states, the USA, and Israel can now testify to where they all ask Ukraine for help, after not having helped Ukraine for four long years – hope UA gets paid well.

-Ukraine has carried out the war’s largest robot and drone attacks on Russia, targeting spectacular goals – such as oil depots and refineries that the USA recently asked Ukraine not to target under the table, along with the Russian Black Sea Fleet and critical arms industry. Moscow was under drone siege for over two days, and the drones flew freely over the city during the day – there you have it!

In the strategic drone war, Ukraine now has the ability to defend itself even without US air defense deliveries, as their interceptor drones are increasingly knocking out incoming threats and the rest of the air defense + aviation handles the remaining threats. Recently, interceptor drones knocked out 70% of the incoming targets that were engaged.

Russia cannot stop Ukraine’s drones and robots at all, and their numbers are increasing towards military targets such as large weapon depots and critical production. Apparently, Russian drones and robots have components manufactured in 2025, so just like in 2022 and 2023, it is possible to disrupt the quantity RU has access to, which seems to be happening now. Early rumors suggest they are starting to see a trend in the number of drones launched, but it could also be due to Iran receiving a lot of drones from Russia, just take your pick.

Large weapon depots, factories, depots, oil installations, and other high-value targets are where they are and cannot be moved.

On the fronts, Ukrainian drone technology and their electronic warfare have given them an advantage in capability where they can suppress RU FPV drones, and RU cannot handle Ukraine’s counterparts.

So Ukraine can once again conduct mobile mechanized warfare in a drone-saturated combat environment, while the Russian bastards stand and wave their arms in the midst of the angry drone swarm and die.

Ukraine has also expanded the kill zone to include the rear capabilities RU thought were protected, front-line depots, artillery, command posts, logistics, and TOLO.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has the character of local offensives to secure dominant terrain, and they have surely been testing their new warfare for several months now.

Those who have fought are units from the strategic offensive reserve I estimated to be over +60,000 from military land.

A qualified guess is that we will eventually see a reserve offensive BEHIND the strategic offensive reserve with a variety of brigades they have had resting and resourced – absolutely no one talks about this, but it must exist, 100% probability.

Russia has a numerical advantage of 1:3, but Ukraine fights with a loss ratio of 1:5 in offensive operations often, so the numbers are not a show-stopper at all.

The Russian bastards plan to start a spring offensive, but they are behind, and Ukraine has gained an advantage by retaking dominant terrain RU must now recapture for the second time.

Russia has brought forward mechanized units, and Ukraine counters with its drone weapons with the task forces at a comfortable distance – they are outside RU FAB and drone range, and when they attack, they seem to fight mobile for days to defeat the enemy and then withdraw – and then existing brigades fortify the area again and endure the daily attrition with FAB.

Apparently, a first attempt to attack on horseback in the fog has resulted in a lot of death for the attacking Russians – so cavalry, which really speaks volumes, but we are not surprised after seeing movies before about crutch shooting and crawling shooting, soldiers so sick or injured that they couldn’t even attack on crutches and had to crawl on the ground.

Prediction 1 – the Russian spring offensive will be more of a hunt for Russian game than an offensive, but this offensive has been decided and orders have been given, so it will kick off. How long will it last – probably too long because RU’s decision-making process is slow, and there are 5-6 CAA (combined arms army) involved, all communicating poorly.

There are fewer combat-ready brigades than we are led to believe on the unit maps, and there are many brigades that are just expendable infantry.

If UA’s drone weapons are as deadly as some guess, they will unleash a firestorm to meet the attacking Russians.

At some point and probably situationally, Ukraine will counter with its own spring offensive.

The only thing that can torpedo this is if Trump manages to intervene, but the question is whether Ukraine can ride a bike without training wheels now and doesn’t need a Trump running behind holding the balance stick?

I want to believe that.

I also want to believe that Europe has had enough after being bullied by Russia and the USA since 2022 and then being completely ignored by China when we tried to sneak over there.

Actually, the USA, Russia, and China should get a medal for managing to awaken Europe’s fighting spirit, but they don’t.

The first crossroads is Huliyapole where RU is now trying to meet with VDV and marine infantry – if they get run over, it’s a very strong signal at the level of the most annoying ringtone on the phone that this is over this year.

Right now, we are getting mixed reports from the fighting units on the RU and UA sides, so I don’t know how it’s going – everyone claims they are advancing in the area, and the maps are not up to date.

Prediction 2 – at some point this year, Putin will suddenly announce that he wants a ceasefire to protect the children, and Trump, who is currently leveling Iran to the ground, will scream about the importance of eternal peace and that Ukraine must agree to it pronto, surely the Nobel Peace Prize will come up again and that Ukraine only receives a lot of money from everyone all the time and are ungrateful scammers.

Russia will stand in the UN and cry about war crimes, and we might even get a resolution against Ukraine from the UN, who knows, I don’t find it unlikely at all.

Amnesty, the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, and Oxfam will all start flooding social media with alarm reports about how much Ukraine is prolonging the suffering of children by refusing peace.

That’s T-cross number two, and to prevent this from going straight into the ditch, Europe must wholeheartedly support Ukraine and not hesitate with words about “a just peace” and force Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire because it only benefits Russia and gives them a chance for round two.

When it’s time for Ukraine’s own counteroffensive or spring offensive, I can’t decide on the wording, so Zelensky will wait to announce it until I confirm on WhatsApp, so it’s good to remember Johan No.’s words of wisdom, as he was the first in world history with – you don’t win any war without an ace up your sleeve.

So what does Ukraine have then?

-The former LPR and DPR units will choose peace and have already been contacted by Ukraine with promises of humane treatment if they choose peace.

LPR is located in the Siversk area.

DPR seems to be around the Chasiv Jar – Bakhmut area.

-Belarus is ready for its legal freedom from oppression and torture and will rise up, but of course, this is countered by the fact that Russia has now brought in units there. Those 360,000 were of course just nonsense, but maybe it requires the Belarusian armed forces to switch sides?

They will only do that if they start to see Ukraine succeeding on the battlefield, but the Belarusians who have fought in Ukraine will go first, along with other critical capabilities like UA drone units and SOF.

-ATESH is present all over Russia and is currently carrying out sabotage and influence operations together with at least 6 local liberation fronts.

-Provinces have likely prepared for liberation from central authority when the time is right, which is when it is so obvious that they can do it without risking consequences that it would be a dereliction of duty not to act, they are of course also cowards to the core.

-It may also be part of Ukraine’s strategy that RU should open a conflict with the Baltic states so that they are tied down there, but if they don’t, we have probably now agreed with Ukraine on military exercises in the spring and summer in Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland. I haven’t checked, but we must have, anything else would be completely unreasonable.

-Ukraine is in contact with opposition in Russia whom they believe in, or at least consider better than Putin, and whom they hope will choose life despite several previous setbacks that ended in defenestration.

The German brigade in Lithuania, paired with interceptor drones, will be able to keep the Suwalki Gap open – but they probably haven’t received the interceptor drones yet.

Furthermore, the USA will not hold back now that we didn’t support them with Hormuz, so Europe stands alone there, and Putin can see that too.

Now that Ukraine has the technological advantage and aces up its sleeve, only offensive operations remain, and the choice of attack vectors, I know I’m now doing like the USA and revealing the whole battle plan, but the bribe in rubles was too attractive to refuse.

First of all, we will see mechanized warfare because Ukraine has consistently, for four years, gained experience that as soon as the fighting becomes mobile, they get inside the very tight decision circles of the Russian troop commanders.

All the clowns in the other blog’s comment section, media, and experts who said this would end in trench warfare embarrassed themselves again for the whole world to see when we stood alone in our conviction that Ukraine has the world’s best marksmanship. No other country today can handle mechanized warfare in a drone-saturated combat environment – none.

They have also discovered that the Chinese/Russian digital battlefield underperforms in mobile warfare, and my guess is that it’s because in the kill chain, it’s the Russian firing units that must fire even if the multitasking bottle-bottom-glasses-wearing Chinese are fast.

And finally, they know that a Russian higher unit commander’s reflex is always to withdraw their units as soon as the flanks are threatened, and they are very good at it – at retreating, as they already showed in 2022.

Various areas have different levels of problems –

-Areas where RU has advanced in the last six months are probably not well fortified.

-Areas where the front has stood still are mined to hell.

-Dominant terrain.

-Concentration of Russian troops – so-called cockroach density per 1mX1m area.

-What units are in defense – do they have cavalry, infantry, motorized infantry, or even T55 tanks.

Dnieper Front

At the Dnieper, RU has weakened in stages, and the last special forces unit remaining in the area is the 98th Airborne Division.

In other areas, there are different levels of defense, but the Dnieper line itself is dominant terrain that must be crossed by amphibious craft or helicopter, of which Ukraine has received A LARGE AMOUNT.

Motorized infantry numbers are perhaps +20,000, it has been quiet there for a long time, but we don’t know if they have been prioritized or if they have dwindled during the winter. Considering that Melitopol and Crimea are nearby and not a focus area for Ukraine, they should have managed reasonably well?

Crimea

The peninsula, which is impossible to defend, is said to have around +12,000 defenders left from the last we heard about it.

Between Kinburn Spit and Crimea, there is a long stretch of coastline where RU has chosen to place barracks, bases, depots, and headquarters.

Down in Crimea, there are maintenance bases, depots, and rear functions for all different branches of the armed forces.

What has Ukraine been up to in recent months

-Ukraine has targeted radars and LVs in Crimea and the Rostov area.

-They have targeted ships in Novorossiysk to such an extent that the Russian fleet has completely blocked the harbor entrance on their own initiative.

-They have targeted two ferries at Kerch recently, there are not many of those.

-Isn’t the Kerch Bridge already a walking dead full of cracks?

-The headquarters at Kinburn Spit has recently been targeted.

-They have taken oil platforms in the Black Sea and probably have control over most of them.

Offensive operations

UA will start conducting raids along the coast between Kinburn Spit and Crimea with suitable vessels, for example, our CB90 of which they have received a large number, and it is to attack someone in the back in a direction they are not defending. Since radars, missile batteries, airfields, LVs, and the Russian fleet are no longer in the area, they can probably move relatively unhindered, so expect amphibious warfare this year.

The drone weapon will be rolled out over the Dnieper front and apparently covers today all the way to Melitopol and the N-S maintenance road.

Crimea will continue to be pre-targeted, and at some point, the Kerch Bridge will be completely cut off – it probably won’t take many Flamingos for it to fall.

Routes into the Dnepfront and Crimea are being monitored, and efforts are made to combat task forces or troop movements – today, all roads out of Crimea can be accessed with drones.

At some point, UA will secure the land bridge to Crimea with troops and swarm over Crimea with amphibious operations and perhaps helicopters if it is deemed safe enough.

They bring drone groups with them and can now reach maintenance roads previously protected even further away.

North of Khakovka, one can actually cross the Dnieper in a cloud and with very small built crossings. Heading towards Melitopol would make the entire Dnieper front unsustainable and must be withdrawn, but of course, there is a risk of counterattacks from the units at the southern front.

One can also cross over and defend under their own drone umbrella and decimate the task forces that must move up on the highway and bind against defending legends – most likely, the Russian CAA chief would immediately receive orders to strike the river crossing and be forced to send everything he has to the area fully exposed on the highway.

Once in Crimea, one can move on to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar, and south towards Rostov na Don.

The area is essentially undefended as RU does not expect any attacks from there at all, and as UA is currently pre-emptively fighting, it is suggested that they want to remove radar, aviation, and air defense in the entire area along with the Black Sea Fleet.

If we want to be really speculative, perhaps Georgia and Azerbaijan will launch a northern attack – it would be lively, if nothing else, in the Russian command and control, and we would hear the uproar all the way to Sweden.

Volgograd would otherwise be a good northern border for Ukraine, as they would then have a land route to Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and even Asia.

(Volgograd – Volgodonsk – Rostov na Don – Kazakhstan border).

And then Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia would have a permanent end to the constant Russian destabilization of their countries and Ukraine as a neighbor instead.

The current practice that Trump has introduced seems to be that you get to keep what you manage to take, right? Do you think he will demand that Russia give up even more than Ukraine has taken?

Have you figured out why Sweden is boarding ships and Russia is keeping quiet?

RU knows that if they send out their fleet to threaten, Ukraine will start sinking it, and Sweden knows that too, which is why we have shown a little civil courage – but it’s good anyway.

At some point, UA will also place flamingos in the Baltic Sea Fleet at the dock and in Kaliningrad.

RU Offensive

The RU offensive seems to consist of 5-6 CAA and is centered on Kramatorsk/Slovyansk, the Pokrovsk area, and then the southern front, leaving the flanks open for Ukraine. We have now gone through Crimea and the invasion of Rostov na Don.

In the RU offensive area, the logical warfare strategy would be to decimate attacking RU units as far as possible in a mobile defensive battle and using drone weapons – RU will probably take some terrain they later lose, causing constant anxiety peaks among army commanders when they lose towns they just reported as captured up the chain of command.

Holding a sparse picket line works against attacking infantry and light infantry, but in the face of larger mechanized attacks from brigades or higher, they will just be overrun unless the drones can keep up, which they won’t if they become saturated with targets.

Then Ukraine will gradually drone away the defense and take over the area, but it’s not very fun to be a defending group facing a divisional attack without any own vehicles…

A bit of give and take.

Have you already considered Northern Luhansk?

Ukraine has shown with Kupiansk that they will not give up the area, as they do not want to have to cross the Oskil again in future offensive operations – it’s as simple as that.

This area is the anchor in the northern flank and so crucial for RU that they probably have the objective in this offensive to take the area up to Oskil – I guess?

They also want to take Lyman so they can directly threaten Slovyansk.

The units in the area include, for example, 1st GTA, many tank regiments, reconnaissance, and MRR.

Ukraine is fighting with Oskil at their backs, and RU has already driven in a couple of wedges, so it will be a higher-level command and control challenge for the defending force when it kicks off.

After reviewing the UA units, several of the better brigades are in the area, especially concentrated near Kupiansk.

RU defends the northern front with the North Koreans’ 11th AC, 2 Russian AC + 2 divisions – they are probably not overly keen on a Ukrainian offensive into the area again and are trying to have redundancy to meet it.

In the north, Belarus is the obvious attack vector beyond small “cross-border skirmishes” just to scare the Russians, and in Belarus, they amplify their numbers by involving the Belarusian defense forces on the good side.

This is probably how it looks in a perfect world, and Ukraine will seize the opportunities in the flight as soon as they arise, now that army corps have been given much greater autonomy and no longer have Sirsky bypassing them and deciding where an individual company should defend, refusing to answer further questions on the phone but threatening everyone with martial law if they do not do as he intended.

Europe has shown some willingness in 2026 – they are not helping with Iran, we are stopping the shadow fleet, a German brigade is partly in Lithuania, and we provided a loan to Ukraine. In fact, we don’t seem to actively try to force Ukraine to cease fire anymore, and we don’t loudly protest about escalation and genocide when Ukraine crosses the line or targets in Russia, activities that have always been prohibited with legal support until they suddenly weren’t anymore.

The waste of Ukrainian lives is incomprehensible, but that’s how it is – everything that we absolutely could not allow Ukraine to do according to international law, legal practice, humanitarian law, and all other paper tigers, they are doing today without anyone caring.

The USA will be fully occupied with Iran, so this is probably the window Ukraine needs to avoid being actively opposed and they can wage the war on their terms – the USA can’t really afford to go to war against Ukraine or Europe.

At some point, it will spread on Twitter that Putin is dead, that the private plane is heading in a nosedive towards Dubai, or maybe even to Swan Lake in black and white just to obscure that the army or FSB have decided that enough is enough.

Iran is a huge blow for Russia, and a Ukrainian spring offensive after the hunting season is over will work wonders for the desire to choose life in Russia.

They are their own worst enemy, and behind the top layer of the criminal clan, the next gang of executioners stands waiting for the right moment to take over; all they do over there is plan power takeovers and murders.

2026 will be a very exciting year but you already know that the war is over this year so you will not be surprised at least. The unknown factor that has never been predictable has been Europe and the USA so if both no longer actively destroy, it is much easier to see how it will develop.

I don’t have much good to say about the USA, Trump, Biden, Europe, EU, and down to individual state leaders but Sweden has still done a lot right in this war and the fact that we are now boarding the shadow fleet is very un-Swedish in modern times and beyond what the rest of Europe has dared to do more than the occasional ship.

Giving 150 Gripen is also best in class where we were still the best after CV90, Strv 122, Archer, and Global Eye. No other country has provided material from the top shelf like we have.

We are also among the largest contributors and have long been at the forefront in words together with Denmark and France.

But France started at -7 after Macron fooled Ukraine into believing that Russia would not attack in 2022 so we are far ahead of the frog eaters.