USA and Russia in secret negotiations about Ukraine

Axios writes today that both American and Russian sources claim that the USA and Russia are secretly discussing plans to end the war in Ukraine. It is of course worrying that the discussions are not taking place openly and even worse that they are happening without Ukraine’s involvement, and also leaving Europe out.

There is no threat against the USA and they have not convincingly shown their stance towards Ukraine. Trump spent several years tarnishing both Ukraine and Zelenskyy before he was even elected and has not done anything for Ukraine so far. He forced them to agree to a deal on natural resources in hopes of increasing willingness to help.

Not much has happened since then. But the sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft are certainly a blow to Russia.
Now that it emerges that the USA and Russia are thus trying to end the war in Ukraine without any other involvement, my guess is that these sanctions are not intended to weaken Russia’s economy and thereby force them to withdraw from Ukraine, but rather solely to give the USA leverage in these secret discussions.

Considering that Europe has not significantly increased its support to compensate for the lack of contribution from the USA, there is a great risk that Ukraine may be forced to accept a peace agreement regardless of its form, especially if the USA also takes a tough stance and threatens various measures against Ukraine if they do not agree.

Trump’s approval ratings are slowly but surely declining, and he himself has said that he is frustrated for not receiving more praise for all the wars he claims to have stopped. Moreover, Epstein has once again become highly topical. Trump is probably starting to become desperate for some form of propaganda victory and is likely willing to do anything. Ending the war in Ukraine could be just the feather in the cap that he needs.

Therefore, I do not believe that these secret negotiations from the US side are based on the best interests of Ukraine and Europe.

Despite that, I am afraid that there is a high risk that Ukraine will feel compelled to accept, and that Europe will also give in and agree to a peace agreement regardless of its content.
I certainly hope I am wrong; Ukraine deserves a fair peace where they do not have to make concessions regarding their country’s borders and can demand and receive compensation from Russia for all that has been destroyed, and of course also for all kidnapped children and prisoners of war to be released.
Anything else would be a defeat and proof that we are letting Russia do as they please.

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff
https://omni.se/uppgifter-usa-och-ryssland-arbetar-pa-ukrainaplan/a/j09PGz

Russian Losses in Ukraine

  • 850 KIA
  • 1 Tank
  • 1 AFV
  • 12 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 293 UAVs
  • 56 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 1 Special equipment

AFU Reports

  • 160 battles
  • 71 Air strikes
  • 139 KAB / Glide bombs
  • 4,145 artillery attacks (131 from MLRS)
  • 5,204 suicide drones

SLAVA UKRAINI


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46 thoughts on “USA and Russia in secret negotiations about Ukraine”

  1. Thought-provoking post MXT.
    The USA only does what benefits themselves. The EU is a big disappointment and we just shouldn’t talk about NATO. A sleepy toothless organization with equipment in poor condition. I’ve written it before but I’ll do it again: The best thing that happened to NATO in the last 50 years is that Finland and Sweden joined. Additionally, we have a NATO chief who unfortunately does not have my trust.

      1. Is Russia on the verge of losing the war? The question should be asked in any case. If the US and Russia are now rustling under the covers and trying to come up with a peace proposal, one can smell a rat. The US does not want Russia to lose the war, and Putin is naturally aware of the mood in the Kremlin and among all the oligarchs. Possibly the Russian people too. A helping hand to Putin from Trump perhaps. Where Ukraine surely draws the shortest straw.

  2. Boring news.

    I suppose it’s someone with insight who wants to stop this from leaking information. It gives me a little hope, if it’s only unsupportive colleagues leaking because they want to make a buck or feel more important, then of course it’s worse.

  3. “🇺🇦 Zelensky: In Ternopil, nine-story residential buildings were hit, fires broke out. Unfortunately, there is significant destruction of buildings, and people may be under the rubble. As of now, dozens of injured are known and, unfortunately, nine people have died.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m5xua5o3ck2u

    “A massive attack was on our Kharkiv since the evening. Dozens of people in the city were injured, including children. The energy sector, transport, and civil infrastructure were damaged. Our energy sector was attacked in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. Three people were injured, two of them children.”

    “In Lviv region, critical infrastructure and energy were hit. A person was injured in the Donetsk region. Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Dnipro regions were under attack. Every attack shows that the pressure on Russia is insufficient. Effective sanctions and aid to Ukraine can change this.”

      1. If one has such good control over where they are flying, it should be possible to intercept them on the way. What is needed to have a mobile LV? Would the A-10 work? Or regular Cessnas with a mounted machine gun a la Snoopy?

        Perhaps anti-drone drones, released from a transport plane?

        Of course, easier said than done, but the flight paths in the picture indicate that one should be able to pick off slow-moving targets at least?

        1. If you could have a whole bunch of A-10s in the air, they should be able to do a good job and surely also Cessnas. Of course, it’s important to have enough pilots.

          They use (or have at least used) F-15s but then the robot costs are probably a bit too high for it to be sustainable in the long run.

          The Shaheds usually run different routes from time to time and also change direction, it’s probably really difficult to cover all possibilities. They also have jet-powered variants now that fly higher and faster. 

          I think there should be a bunch of retired A-10 pilots in the USA who should be interested. Of course, it’s just a matter of getting the planes released. They have been on the verge of being decommissioned for a long time but it never seems to happen.

  4. The latest 24-hour report from AFU shows an increasing attack activity in Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivskij, and Huliaypillia. In the latter, 19 Russian attacks is a record (previously 25 on May 1).

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2↘️
    S Slobozhansky 6
    Kupyansk 7↗️
    Lyman 7↘️
    Slovyansk 8↘️
    Kramatorsk 2
    Kostjantynivka 19💥
    Pokrovsk 50💥💥💥↗️
    Oleksandrivskij 18💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 19💥↗️
    Orikhivsk 2
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2

  5. One thing that no one, least of all the EU, seems to have thought about, is that if there is a “peace/ceasefire” it will mean a migration of gigantic proportions as Ukrainians try to flee from Russian annexation.
    Probably much worse than previous refugee waves.

    Europe is probably not prepared for this… Or maybe the Ukrainians will head to… Africa…!! Because the question is if they want to go to the EU, which didn’t help them…

    It seems like Europe has messed up in its own (bleep) bed…

    And, I could be wrong.

    1. If it ends in sorrow with peace on worthless terms, the risk is enormous that there will be emigration next time Russia attempts to conquer the rest of Ukraine.

      There probably won’t be many who choose to stay to fight if Europe betrays them this time (we also betrayed them in 2014 regarding Crimea but it wasn’t on the same level as now).

      1. If it continues according to what I believe is Trump/Witkoff’s plan, Russia will be richly rewarded for its attack, and may soon set its sights on the next target.

        At least it seems like the UK has started to lose patience with the Russians’ spy ship, one can hope that they have a reason to sink it.

  6. There is an assumption that none of the four ATACMS missiles aimed at Voronezh were shot down.

    Near the impact site, four smoke trails were recorded in the sky. These are exactly the trails produced by an ATACMS missile in cluster munition configuration at the moment of successful warhead deployment over the target.

    Later, Russian media published photos of the remains of these missiles – bodies without warheads, without characteristic damage from air defense systems. This appearance is typical for ATACMS after normal use, when the cluster warhead opens in the air and the empty engine casing simply falls to the ground.

    All this indicates that the missiles were not shot down but functioned as intended, releasing submunitions over the target.

    1. Regarding the news from AFU:

      “⚡️The Armed Forces of Ukraine have successfully used ATACMS tactical missile systems to deliver precision strikes on military targets in Russia. This is a landmark event that underscores Ukraine’s unwavering commitment to its sovereignty.

      Despite the constant challenges of Russian attacks, Ukrainians remain steadfast, demonstrating their determination to defend their homeland persistently and systematically.

      The use of long-range weapons, such as ATACMS, will continue.

      Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦”

      https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1A6cD7LngD/?mibextid=wwXIfr

    1. Gone are the days when the USA had the principle of “We do not negotiate with terrorists”

      Now it seems like they only negotiate with terrorists and dictators.

  7. It was also some news that the USA backed out in the near future from a planned meeting with Ukraine regarding a possible peace agreement/negotiation. The conclusion then becomes that 🇺🇸 is totally uninterested in Ukraine’s positions and wishes. Not that it surprises me particularly.

    1. They do what they think is easiest and causes the least problems for them, give Russia what they want and the war will end…. They believe those who have no more capacity than to think one step ahead..

    1. It was indeed a variation of course! When it comes to Trump, he is probably grateful for anything that takes the focus away from the Epstein story…..

    2. Then all parties get exactly what they want, that the big boys settle things among themselves. Nice that they do it for real and not through representatives.

  8. Have managed to make it to Madrid.

    you are right MXT – that’s the direction we are heading.

    We all feel it really and personally I am most disappointed in Europe.

    The USA has never done what was good for Ukraine for the reason you mention – they are not threatened.

    we are threatened but in WW2 everyone chose to give up in two months for the chance to have five years of Gestapo flaying.

    The will to fight in Europe is low.

  9. Hmm…
    Was that what was meant by “never again war in Europe”.. ie roll over… ??

    May the ghosts of all those sacrificed during WW2 haunt our rulers!!

  10. I have been nagging for a while about what the goal is and stated what I believe.

    If Europe agrees to a ceasefire, that mistake will cost us dearly.

    UA has also explained it to us.

  11. The fact that the USA is negotiating with Russia behind the back of the rest of the world does not bode well. They go for the lowest hanging fruit, without considering the Ukrainian or European people.

    How is it easiest to achieve peace between two countries, where a large country has attacked a smaller country, and one is a bully type lacking all normal empathy for the smaller one? Well, one says that the attacker gets to keep what he has conquered, and the attacked one must choose between losing all support and continuing to fight alone or giving the attacker what he has conquered. This causes the least trouble for Trump, he doesn’t need to send anything to Ukraine, he can open up for business with Russia and maintain his friendship with Putin. The people of Ukraine are Europe’s problem, if they want help, they have to pay for it.

    It may be that the USA now thinks that Russia is more open to discussions when they have finally put some pressure on Russia, but I don’t think the USA will impose any heavier demands on Russia.

    Just the fact that it’s Witkoff leading the negotiations is ominous, he is even more naive and pro-Russia than Trump.

    Russia will not back down on its demands, maybe just tweak them a bit so Trump and Witkoff think it’s something new.

    Soon Trump will boast about the world’s best deal, and now there will be peace, and those who don’t think it’s good will be punished with sanctions and tariffs.

  12. Canada visit, by King CG and Minister for Enterprise Ebba Busch Thor. On the table lies the production of the JAS 39 Gripen in Canada, creating jobs in Canada. At the same time, the USA threatens Canada with “measures” if they proceed with the setup. It might be good to finalize that deal so the USA can consider what role they want to play in the military-industrial sector. It could have an impact on the American arms industry. Something that Mr. President Trump has messed up due to his completely twisted security perspectives.

  13. “The war must end. There is no alternative to peace. Russia must understand that there will be no reward for war and killing.” — Zelensky.

    1. I completely agree, and surely everyone who is not completely clueless, but I am afraid that the American regime only agrees with the first two sentences.

  14. “The unusual aspect is not only about the relatively deep strike but more about the fact that the weapon used is American Atacms. Ukraine announces that there will be more attacks of this kind, but there is a lot that is unknown about the country’s arsenal – nevertheless, it could be an important development according to Hans Liwång, professor in defense systems at the Swedish Defense University.”

    Ukraine has shelled Russia with American Atacms missiles for the first time in almost a year. From the Ukrainian side, it is reported to have been a success and that it will continue – however, it is extremely unclear how many they have left.

    – “It will still be more difficult for Russia to protect itself,” says Hans Liwång from the Swedish Defense University.

    https://www.dn.se/varlden/expert-atacms-kan-tvinga-ryssland-att-omplanera/

  15. Now leaks are starting to come in that the US discussions with Russia are just as hellish as feared:

    BREAKING: USA agrees to Russia’s demands

    … The army will be halved… how long after that before the Russian hell is in Kiev. And how long before they are at the Baltic Sea through the Baltics.

    The USA, with the world’s strongest military power, has all the opportunities to pressure a Russia that is already on the ropes into a peace that would benefit Ukraine. Instead, they give Putin what he wants. If not before, now Putin knows that the USA will not give a damn if a small country in Eastern Europe invokes Article 5. NATO can no longer count on the USA.

    Trump and Witkoff are truly stupid if they agree to something like this. Pax Americana is truly over, dismantled by a useful idiot and his intelligence-deprived and fact-resistant followers. How can ordinary Americans go along with this? They over there can’t all be as brainwashed as the leadership, or well, most Republicans probably can be, apparently. Volumes will be written about this first year of Trump’s second term, historians will compare the fall of the USA to the fall of the Roman Empire, psychologists will research collective stupidity, with Trump’s administration as a cautionary example.

    Europe, pull yourselves together, now it’s time to unite and take over the void that the USA leaves behind!

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