Trump has now brought Maduro and also his wife to the USA where they will stand trial.
At the same time, he has stated that the USA will take control of Venezuela and its oil.
Of course, this is completely irregular and violates international law, etc.
At the same time, in the long run, it may be the best for Venezuela (I acknowledge that there is a bit of cognitive dissonance in me, depending on where it ends).
Regardless, this is very bad on a global scale. The USA is showing its worst side and behaving much like Russia.
They grab what they want because they can. It will be difficult to protest against China if they actually choose to attack Taiwan, but one also understands why Trump does not want to stop Putin, he is not any better himself.
Will Greenland be the next target?
Perhaps this was not such a smart move by Trump either, he campaigns on the idea that the USA should not interfere in other countries and then he attacks Venezuela. But now maybe he won’t have to hear any more about Epstein? It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks if he will be hailed as a hero or if he will face resistance.
Maduro has hardly been a good leader, and a large part of the country’s population has fled because he has oppressed the opposition and the country’s development has stagnated during his years in power. This is partly due to US sanctions, which have resulted in very few investments in the country and its oil production. China has made some investments in recent years, and Russia has also tried to gain influence, but more through selling weapons, etc.
It is impossible to know at this point how it will end for the people in Venezuela. Will the USA ensure that there are real democratic elections so that the people can choose their leaders themselves? Will their oil production be restored and contribute to the flourishing economy and improved quality of life?
It largely depends on how the USA acts. The risk, of course, is that we will see something similar to what we have seen before. The USA ensures that a US-friendly leader is installed who also, without any fuss, lets the USA take control of the oil. Colonialism 2.0 without the people noticeably benefiting.
So far, the USA has not taken over the country, and it may end up not going much further than this, but I assume that Trump’s statement regarding Venezuela and oil is serious, and the rest of the text will be about oil because that is what the whole attack on Venezuela is about.
US Oil Production
Today, the USA extracts almost all of its oil through fracking, where they drill into shale fields. It has almost become a truth that US oil production is very expensive, but that is not entirely true today.
During the years 2014-2016, OPEC attempted to eliminate their production by starting overproduction, which in turn led to such low prices that the idea was for the USA to be forced to shut down its extraction. They succeeded to some extent as hundreds of companies actually had to shut down. At the same time, the USA managed to significantly reduce its costs through technological development and mergers, and OPEC eventually had to give up.
Fracking is still more expensive than, for example, in the Middle East but is quite close to the cost of offshore oil rigs. However, they have a significant advantage when it comes to flexibility.
With fracking, new wells must be drilled continuously as they only produce oil for a few years. It is quick to drill new wells to increase production, and if a decrease is needed, they can simply stop drilling.
It is the opposite of other extraction methods, and increased flexibility makes it easier to match the market and thus achieve better profitability in the long run.
However, there are issues with export costs. The USA has increased exports every year, but even though they have expanded pipelines and some deep-water ports, the costs are higher for customers when transportation is included. This is one reason why the price of CrudeOil/WTI is lower than Brent.
The USA cannot charge the same prices as the rest of the world if they are to compete. Considering that fracking is somewhat more expensive, profitability is also somewhat lower.
Furthermore, the USA is currently at maximum capacity for its exports. Not in terms of production, but in terms of the ability to transport it through pipelines to the ports and also the ports’ capacity.
They, for example, have to use smaller vessels to transport the oil to larger tankers, and internally in the country, some of the oil is transported by tank trucks and trains, which is also costly.
Additional investments would be needed to increase exports, investments that cost money, further reducing profits. The price of oil would need to rise for the investments to be worthwhile (if they want to maintain the profit margin).
The USA exports just over half of its oil if we also include oil products such as gasoline, etc.
At the same time, they consume significantly more oil and oil products, and domestic production only covers about 70% of what they consume. They have been a net exporter for a few years, but still need to import.
One of the reasons for importing, besides consuming more than they produce, is the interesting fact that their refineries are designed to handle heavy oil while domestic production yields lighter oil. Therefore, refineries yield the best returns with imported heavy oil (like the one found in Venezuela). The major oil companies that own the entire chain thus sell some of their lighter oil to be able to import heavier oil.
So, there is a difference between oil and oil.
Trump has stated that he wants to see increased oil production “Drill baby drill,” and there has been an increase in 2025, but it is at the same level as it was in 2023 and 2024, so there is no significant difference. The capacity for both production and export has increased every year. There is still room, of course, to increase exports. At the same time, more bottlenecks have emerged, squeezing margins. The larger companies that own both refineries, pipelines, and wells fare better than others who are forced to buy more expensive logistics.
Continued growth will lead to reduced profit per barrel, so there probably won’t be any major rapid increases unless, of course, the oil price rises.
Trump’s desire for a significant increase shows that he does not seem to understand the industry.
Oil in Venezuela and What It Could Mean if the USA Takes Control of It
Venezuela is a marginal exporter with about 1% of the world market, and according to some reports, US efforts in Venezuela have led to a complete halt in exports. The insignificance of their oil exports is evident when one sees that the oil price has hardly been affected.
Due to the lack of foreign investors for many years, there is speculation about whether it is even possible to significantly increase extraction, as several experts believe that most of it has been neglected. China has invested some in the infrastructure (it will be very interesting to see how they will react if the USA is now going to take over the entire oil industry in Venezuela).
It will likely require a lot of investments to boost production while operating in a country that may become unstable. Additionally, if production is successfully increased, it will lead to even lower prices, reducing the USA’s own margins.
The larger oil companies in the USA, with the resources to make investments, will probably perceive it as too risky. Furthermore, they will be competing with their own oil production in the USA.
The companies that might be interested are those that currently only own refineries adapted for heavy oil, without any extraction operations. The question is whether they have the capital and if they truly want to get involved in Venezuela. Regardless, it requires Venezuelan oil to be cheaper than what they can buy on the open market. Considering today’s already low oil prices, it will be difficult to make it profitable.
If the USA simply takes full control and only pays a symbolic amount to Venezuela, there will of course be a greater chance of profitability, but then the extraction will not benefit the people.
If an increased production is initiated (which could take several years), it will compete with domestic US production, risking what OPEC attempted. It is not impossible that OPEC seizes the opportunity to increase its production. This could backfire against the USA and Trump if the industry feels threatened, leading to cutbacks, layoffs, etc.
So, in the short term, I don’t think there is much for the USA to gain from this. I believe that Trump has completely misjudged the interest from American companies to make investments at this time. He probably wants to show quick profits and generate revenue, but it could actually be detrimental to the USA.
However, this certainly provides the USA with many other strong advantages.
- The USA gains access to a long-term oil reserve; fracking is not sustainable indefinitely, but with oil in Venezuela, they can secure oil for many, many years to come.
- The USA may acquire a more systematic role where they actually gain such control that they can influence the market in the same way OPEC does, using it as a price weapon against other countries.
- It prevents China and possibly Russia from taking control; the USA doesn’t need to earn a penny, just preventing others from doing so is a win.
Without even extracting a drop of oil in the coming years, they can gain significant advantages. However, all this would be at the expense of Venezuela.
I am somewhat doubtful whether the US Congress will approve this.
At the same time, this creates a major global power shift, entering a completely new era of uncertainty where dependence on the USA and their control over oil could affect everyone in the future.
I actually believe that these advantages are not what Trump is after (but what has prevented him from being stopped). He is quite impatient and probably prefers to benefit himself; I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts Trump Oil when he realizes that the oil industry is not ready.
What we can hope for is that Congress puts a stop to this and focuses on establishing a genuine democratic government. Once the situation stabilizes, Venezuela can attract companies willing to invest based on market conditions that benefit the country.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Good post MXT and in line with how I think.
If one feels that this was good, one should calibrate oneself a bit.
The part that is missing is well IF China, Russia, and the USA have now divided the world?
I lean towards what Trump’s rhetoric has led to and that China and RU have let go of Venezuela.
But they probably expect favors in return 😳
Explained in the old thread that you had gone too close to a preschool and that was why you were absent.
There are significant reasons to worry – also because Europe is not part of this division, which we should not be, so that everyone else will try to weaken us (probably).
I think the EU and Sweden’s responses have been balanced.
If the EU chooses the easy way out, if available, and trades Africa in exchange for letting the other three be, I become a little gloomy
Fearful that the EU takes the easy way out and essentially does nothing.
Yes, maybe ending up with a tripolar world.
It’s a bit worrying, this will gradually increase the pressure on Europe and the question is where it will end, if it will lead to more similar actions from both the USA, China, and Russia.
(A bit funny though that it’s China and Russia that are the most vocally protesting! 😄)
After I posted the loss figures for X and Bluesky yesterday, I felt like, nah, it’s time for a break.
Shoveled snow instead.
Good 👍
The American Senate will next week vote on a bipartisan motion aimed at preventing Donald Trump from continuing military actions against Venezuela, reports The Hill.
The motion only requires a simple majority and has been introduced by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, with the support of, among others, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Senator Rand Paul.
“We have entered the 250th year of American democracy and cannot allow it to deteriorate into the tyranny that our founders fought to escape,” Kaine said about the motion.
Support from three more Republicans is needed for the proposal to pass.
A significant upturn in Venezuela’s oil production is likely several years away. This is even if American oil companies were to invest billions, experts told Reuters.
The Latin American country has the world’s largest estimated oil reserves, but in recent decades production has plummeted in the wake of a lack of investment from foreign companies following the nationalization of the industry. In addition, investments are needed to address security risks, decaying infrastructure, and the risk of prolonged political instability.
– American companies will not return until they know they will be paid and can operate under conditions of at least basic security, says Chris Well-chief Mark Christian.
Energy strategist Thomas O’Donnell points out that initially it depends on Trump succeeding in achieving a peaceful political transition with limited resistance.
– Then production could increase significantly in five to seven years, when the infrastructure is repaired and investments are in place, he says.
“At least 40 people were killed when the USA attacked the Venezuelan capital Caracas on Saturday, according to a high-ranking Venezuelan source to the New York Times. The figure is said to include both military personnel and civilians.
The reporting does not specify how many of them are civilians or how many people were injured.
Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump has stated that the USA will “govern” the Latin American country towards a peaceful transition of power. How this will happen is still unclear.”
40 murders then?
Should well be added to the over 100 already performed on the “drug smugglers”.
And the 19,000 who stood up against Maduro and Wagner🔨🇷🇺.
China urges the US to immediately release Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, reports AFP.
In a statement, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs writes that the US must guarantee the personal safety of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, release them immediately, and cease attempts to overthrow the Venezuelan government.
The Ministry also describes the attack as a “clear violation of international law.”
Blows some warm air but promises to stay away in closed meetings?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s actually the case that it happened with their consent.
Russia can do as it pleases when it comes to Ukraine, drive over Taiwan without the US doing anything, we know.
“Venezuela’s oil exports, which have already been reduced to a minimum after the US blockade of sanctioned tankers, have now practically come to a halt. Several sources told Reuters this after the US attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro yesterday.
According to the reports, port captains have not received any applications to greenlight departures for loaded ships. A total export stop – even for tankers linked to the state oil company PDVSA’s main partner Chevron – could force Venezuela to quickly reduce production at oil fields, the news agency writes.
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that an oil embargo against Venezuela is now “fully implemented” and that the US will monitor a political transition in the country. He also stated that American oil companies will start operating in Venezuela.”
It’s the refineries around the Mexican Gulf that are expecting a permanent upswing in the future.
Rumored that Trump has received a billion or two in dollars as a thank you
“USA will attack Venezuela again if the country’s vice president does not do what the USA wants. That’s what Donald Trump tells the New York Post.
– We are prepared. We have a second wave that is much larger than the first one, he says.
He adds that he has spoken with Venezuela’s vice president Delcy Rodríguez – who was sworn in as the country’s leader on Saturday after the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro – and that she is aware of the situation.
At Saturday’s press conference, Trump said that he is not afraid to deploy ground forces in Venezuela. He tells the newspaper that it is not necessary as long as Rodríguez does not oppose the wishes of the USA.”
The congresswoman and former Maga figure Marjorie Taylor Greene is furious at Donald Trump’s attacks on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
“Americans’ disgust with our own government’s never-ending military aggression and support for foreign wars is justified, as we are forced to pay for it,” she writes, and continues:
“This is what many within Maga thought they were voting for to put an end to. Oh, how wrong we were.”
A large part of Trump’s voter base wants US involvement in foreign affairs to be minimal and for American tax dollars to essentially only go towards domestic issues. This part of the voter base has previously been represented by outgoing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has now broken with the president due to his reluctance to disclose the Epstein investigation.”
How is the weather up there in SE2?
I have the journey from HELL trying to get back to the Caribbean.
Everything rebooked for Amsterdam closed.
Then train problems 😭
I don’t know about SE2, but here in SE3 it’s actually quite calm today. No new snow (still tired in my back since yesterday). Probably have to shovel today anyway.
Sounds moderately boring, I saw there were luggage problems at Arlanda as well?
SE3 🧐
EVERYTHING is a problem even where all flights to the Caribbean were canceled but seems to have opened.
EVERYTHING 😳
Yuck, but once you arrive, you’ll be greeted by 20-25 degrees and at least you’ll escape the winter!
Interesting posts. The USA is doing what they usually do in their backyard. Nothing new really. Now it’s oil, in Chile it was minerals. The most famous, however, is the United Fruit Co in “Banana America”. These countries have not recovered yet.
Especially Guatemala. There is one exception, Costa Rica.
Feel free to read “Weekend in Guatemala” by Miguel Asturias. He wrote it in the 50s and was a Guatemalan diplomat and author himself. He was honored with the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1967. The book is about the atrocities committed by the wealthy in Guatemala, with the benevolent assistance of the USA (primarily the CIA), against the landless in 1954. United Fruit had to change its name to United Brands due to the scandals in Central America. Today they are called Chiquita Brands. Not to be confused with Elders & Fyffes, which is (was) British. I believe it is now controlled from Ireland.
A bit strange that the protests are coming from Russia and China..
“Russia is furious after the USA bombed Venezuela’s capital Caracas and arrested the country’s Kremlin-friendly president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.
“We strongly urge the American leadership to reconsider its position and release the democratically elected president of a sovereign country and his wife,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement according to AFP.
Maduro did declare himself the winner of the 2024 election, but the election was condemned from several quarters as undemocratic.
There have also been reports during the day that Maduro’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez has fled to Russia, reports that are denied by the Kremlin.
Russia is far from alone in its condemnation. Similar voices are heard from China and several Latin American countries, and from Europe there are calls for the protection of international law.”
https://omni.se/kreml-fordomer-usa-s-insats-frige-maduro/a/gk7nW1
Hot air?
“US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says that after the attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, the US can now secure “additional wealth and resources” without needing to “sacrifice American lives.”
At the same time, he describes the attack as the complete opposite of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
“We spent decades and paid with blood, without receiving anything economically in return. President Trump is now turning the situation around,” he tells CBS.
Donald Trump has said that the US will govern Venezuela for a period of time and that the attack was also carried out to gain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves.”
🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢
The elephant in the room that you choose to ignore: Russia. Venezuela has in practice been a Russian enclave, just like Königsberg. Or Syria. No protests against the US attacks on Syria from your side, or against the attack on Iran. So yes, cognitive dissonance! But just like with Iran and Syria, it is bad for Russia and its military capacity, which ultimately is a threat to Ukraine and Europe and many parts of the world. US actions are possible because Russia is dissolved in Ukraine, just like with Iran and Syria. Putin has nothing to offer his vassals and this is exploited by the USA. That oil is part of the game is quite subordinate to the Russian military threat. Even if this is not necessarily the US perspective on the matter, in plain terms, the action is detrimental to Russia and its military capability (indirectly also because Russia cannot benefit economically in any way by helping a pro-Russian Venezuelan leadership secure the country’s oil exports), which removes pressure on Ukraine. Which from an international law perspective is completely OK.
Comparing Venezuela to Kaliningrad I see as a strong exaggeration even if it can be used symbolically.
But let’s do it, in that case (if I understand you correctly) the US attack on Venezuela should thus be seen as a blow against Russia and therefore be justified because they pose a threat to the USA (and the rest of the world), a threat that has now been eliminated?
In that case, it strongly resembles the rhetoric Russia has used to justify its war against Ukraine.
I think that if we are to follow some kind of rule-based world order, it should apply equally to everyone.
Apart from Russia losing reputation and influence, I believe that Russia has not lost much in the short term. Now they don’t have to supply the country with weapons that they themselves need.
I don’t think the USA acted against Venezuela to weaken Russia, but as you write, maybe they saw the opportunity to take advantage knowing that they would not be able to act.
By the way, their lack of action shows that their presence is not particularly strong.
It’s probably worse for China, they have invested some in the country in terms of infrastructure, etc. with a long-term plan to benefit from the oil, and those investments risk going down the drain.
Causing trouble for Russia and China, I of course see as positive advantages, but that doesn’t mean I think it’s OK. If Venezuela had attacked the USA first, it would of course be something completely different.
Which other countries should it be OK for the USA to do as they please with?
When it comes to Iran and Syria, I simply haven’t taken the time to write about it, and I also don’t think it’s directly comparable to Venezuela.
NOTE, it’s not possible to monitor, have opinions, and write about everything, not writing about something means that one can conclude that I have taken a stand for neither one nor the other.
We have not seen the end yet in Venezuela, it could turn out well and maybe then one might come to the conclusion that “the end justifies the means,” but it remains to be seen, and I am strongly doubtful.
I would have seen it differently if there had been massive protests in the country where the majority of the population had joined and where they had asked the world for help while the rulers used violence. Preventing mass atrocities and genocide is, for me, a valid reason to intervene in another country to stop it.
“I would probably have seen it differently if there had been massive protests in the country where the majority of the population had joined and where the world had been asked for help at the same time as the rulers had used excessive force.”
Protests against Wagner 🔨 🇷🇺, do you mean?
Wagner quickly suppressed any hints of popular uprising after Maduro lost the election. Not from a legal standpoint reason enough to intervene, do you think?
And the lack of popular uprising in Donbass, Georgia, or Russia – let it be? I thought it was nuclear weapons that deterred intervention in Russia (which now only Ukraine does), but it’s actually about international law?
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1818958765611237872?s=46
‼️Wagner mercenaries in Venezuela
A video appeared online that shows a Russian mercenary working on the side of Maduro’s law enforcers in Venezuela.
Locals report that Wagner has been present in Venezuela for several years. Reportedly, they are part of Maduro’s prime security circle, and are involved in training militia as well as securing Russian surveillance bases.
Reportedly, there are other Russian forces that are present in Venezuela as well for militia training and other tasks.
I consider a country’s sovereignty to be quite important, and if one is to intervene in a country to replace the current leaders and government, I believe it requires quite a lot.
The intervention itself and the presence of another country’s forces can have a significant impact and lead to further chaos, civil war, etc., with a large number of casualties in addition to the country’s economy being destroyed.
The US intervention is now estimated to have cost the lives of 40 people and over 100 on the ships. It’s quite limited after all, but they couldn’t be sure it wouldn’t get much worse.
Moreover, they also threaten with further attacks if one does not comply with what the US wants.
If they had intervened in Venezuela earlier when the purges were at their worst and the UN issued its report suspecting that up to 5,000 people may have been killed, I might have judged it differently. Now, the UN report was not based on their own observations as the UN did not have observers, etc., on site, but it could still have been correct.
It also depends on why one chooses to intervene.
The US hasn’t even tried to make it seem like they’re doing it for humanitarian reasons to save the population from Maduro, but it’s solely about the US itself, that he’s been smuggling drugs and that they’ve been tricked about the oil. However, it’s positive that they still seem to want to achieve democratic elections.
When it comes to Ukraine, the situation is clear, there it’s likely the nuclear weapons that are partly deterrent, but from an international law perspective, I see nothing preventing us from helping Ukraine defend itself.
Attacking Russia before the war (since Putin is purging people from the opposition), as well as Georgia (where the opposition is being imprisoned), is much more questionable. Are the crimes being committed at a level where we have a legal right, or should, intervene? Does an intervention risk causing more harm than good?
It’s not easy to determine where the line is drawn.
https://x.com/maniamakash/status/1818892027532087669?s=46
“Never forget that russia sent Wagner forces to protect Maduro 5 years ago when his illegitimate rule was again at risk.
When you see people protesting autocrats propped up by russia in Venezuela, Syria, Georgia, Belarus etc, stop saying it’s a “US-backed coup”.
Stop diminishing people’s agency to chart their own destiny. They’ve seen firsthand what tyranny is and want better for their country. Why do you think people from such countries support Ukraine? They know what russian hegemony means & it’s universally terrible.
Instead, support their fight and understand that russia is a common thread underlying this oppression. Ukraine is trying to stop it at its source, having successfully protested against its kremlin-backed autocrat in 2014.
Maduro has overseen the worst peacetime economic catastrophe in recent history. “Peace” by keeping a russian-backed dictator does not equal actual peace, because it doesn’t come with freedom, justice, democracy or hope.
Support people in their fight for this – rip out the tentacles of russian influence, which weakens putin’s power & reputation. And of course, arm Ukraine to win so that russia cannot do this to anyone again.”
“I would probably have seen it differently if there had been massive protests in the country where the majority of the population had joined and where the world had been asked for help at the same time as the rulers used excessive force.”
So Wagner🔨🇷🇺 is not excessive force?
Twitter is a good source of information:
“Wagner’s presence in Venezuela dates back to 2019, when Russian mercenaries protected Maduro during the political crisis. In 2023–2024, they secured mining sites, trained elite units, and repressed protests.”
Warning ⚠️ Twitter 🐦:
https://x.com/stopwagnergroup/status/1986111306076651549?s=46
The electricity price in December was good, thank the gods 🙏
Under 2026 bör vi se om världen är uppdelad – Taiwan eller Baltikums gröna män.
Gissar att en hel rad länder haft krismöten nu.
Europa bör stå som ledare för övriga väst – japan, aus, nz, sydkorea och vilka mer?
Well, this time you might be right that Trump did what was good for the USA. Depending on how it ends, of course. Losing face in the world is of less importance to them.
Being big and strong doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be kind. 😂
The reputation and thus the influence that is being lost is not that of the USA but of Russia. Including Russia’s military deterrence capability. Russia has taken a tough stance on military support for Venezuela before Christmas. This was also the case in Iran and Syria, where successful US attacks also contributed to castrating the Russian war machine.
“Rip out the tentacles of Russian influence, which weakens Putin’s power & reputation“
Well, it is of course true that their reputation is tarnished. They have proven to be both poor at delivering functioning weapon systems and perhaps mainly as a partner. Russia does not lift a finger to help, those who still ally with Russia have probably been given some food for thought.
För övrigt – bra för USA detta att säkra V all olja.
Good that the oil does not benefit Russia in any way. Or should we release the shadow fleet?
That neither Russia nor China (it is China that has actually bought oil from there) is of course positive.
The risk, of course, is that China will now buy more oil from Russia instead. On the other hand, Venezuela can no longer sell oil to China, which they use to buy weapons from Russia.
But, Russia🛢️🩸😭
““If our American ‘partners’ get their hands on Venezuela’s oil fields (and they have already reached those in Guyana), more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” Deripaska wrote.
According to Deripaska, the United States plans to “make sure” that the price of Russian oil “does not rise above $50 per barrel,” and such a scenario threatens Russia’s current economic model.
“This means that our so-called sacred state capitalism will find it difficult to keep everything as it is: not cutting costs, not getting rid of non-core assets, and continuing to pursue grand projects without the necessary expertise and without the involvement of private business,” Deripaska noted.
Deripaska added that it will also become “harder for the Russian authorities to put pressure on private business,” which “starting this year is becoming the main taxpayer to the federal budget.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/shankarnarayan/p/why-europe-and-canada-closed-ranks?selection=6ea92030-325e-446b-86a9-464d9a029482&r=28193j&utm_medium=ios
Comparing Venezuela to Kaliningrad is, in my opinion, a strong exaggeration even though it can be used symbolically.
But let’s do it, in that case (if I understand you correctly), should the US attack on Venezuela then be seen as a blow against Russia and therefore justified because they pose a threat to the US (and the rest of the world), a threat that has now been eliminated?
If so, it reminds me a lot of the rhetoric Russia has used to justify its war against Ukraine.
I believe that if we are to follow some kind of rule-based world order, it should apply equally to everyone.
Apart from Russia losing reputation and influence, I rather think that Russia has not lost much in the short term. Now they don’t have to supply the country with weapons that they themselves need.
I don’t think the US acted against Venezuela to weaken Russia, but as you write, maybe they saw the opportunity to take advantage knowing that they will not be able to act.
By the way, their lack of action shows that their presence is not particularly strong.
It’s probably worse for China, as they have invested quite a bit in the country in terms of infrastructure, etc., with a long-term plan to benefit from the oil, and those investments risk going down the drain.
I naturally see it as a positive advantage that it causes trouble for Russia and China, but that still doesn’t mean I think it’s okay. If Venezuela had attacked the US first, it would of course be a completely different story.
Which other countries should it be okay for the US to do as they please with?
Regarding Iran and Syria, I simply haven’t taken the time to write about it, and I also don’t think it’s directly comparable to Venezuela.
NOTE, it’s not possible to monitor, have opinions, and write about everything, not writing about something means that one can conclude that I have not taken a stance for either side.
We haven’t seen the end of Venezuela yet, it could turn out well and maybe then one might come to the conclusion that “the end justifies the means,” but it remains to be seen, and I am strongly doubtful.
I would have seen it differently if there had been massive protests in the country where the majority of the population had joined and where they had asked the world for help while the rulers had used excessive force. Preventing mass killings and genocide is, for me, a valid reason to intervene in another country to stop it.
“Nicolás Maduro’s appearances and dance numbers in recent weeks played a role in the decision to attack Venezuela, according to two sources to The New York Times.
As recently as this week, Maduro appeared on stage after the US attacked a port building and danced on state TV, while a recorded voice repeated the words “no crazy wars.”
Several similar appearances in recent weeks led Trump’s inner circle to interpret it as Maduro mocking them and trying to suggest that the US was bluffing, according to the sources.
However, it was not a bluff, as the US chose to proceed with its military threats.”
The Swedish editorial pages are far from convinced that the USA’s spectacular military action in Venezuela was such a good idea.
It is indeed good that Nicolás Maduro has done his part as Venezuela’s leader, but it is a very high-stakes game by Donald Trump, writes Expressen’s editorial page, which sees reasons for concern.
The newspaper wonders which principles Trump is leaning on. The global superpowers’ idea of spheres of interest is life-threatening for smaller countries, and the question is how far Trump will push his agenda.
“For example, he has often returned to the idea that Greenland should belong to the USA. Expect the Danish government to sweat a little extra right now.”
DN agrees that Maduro is illegitimate and has clung to power through farcical elections. But Trump’s actions send unfortunate signals to Russia and China.
“It is more likely that they see the attack as a clarification that the only international law now is that of the strong.”
DI’s editorial writer Frida Wallnor believes that in the short term, it may have positive effects for Trump, but she fears that the gamble in the long run could cost the USA dearly. Judging by historical examples, it is unlikely that this will create stability in the American neighborhood, she writes.
https://x.com/felix_drost/status/1837887058943086684?s=46
”What do you call a war where 19,000 civilians get killed by their own government? At least the Ukrainians can fight back.
Maduro flies in Wagner and Hezbollah goons to help him kill his own people.”
Venezuelans are not considered to have fought back against the regime to legitimize support from the outside world. They have only lost between 5000 and 19000 in deaths. How many KWIA that amounts to in total, someone has to figure out. Maybe it’s just deaths. But I can also suspect injured and tortured.
Yuck! Expressing condolences for the fall of the genocidal Maduro due to the way or reason he falls makes me want to vomit. 🤢
I do not regret his fall as such if that’s how you interpret what I’ve written, one can have several thoughts in mind. What the USA has done goes against international law but no one will act because it’s about the USA (just like the response to Russia has been weak because they have nuclear weapons).
If it’s okay to go against international law this time because one thinks it was a good purpose, on what other occasions is it okay to do so, and is there even a point in trying to uphold any international law?
If it goes against international law now, because one did not already in 2019 step in and support the people against the Russian-backed Maduro, one can with the same reasoning say that it goes against international law when the West first in 2022 (after Ukraine had pushed back Russia themselves) stepped in and supported Ukraine and not in 2014 when Russia illegally annexed Crimea and initiated the war of conquest in Donbass. But in both cases, Russia was strong. Stronger than today. Perceived as too strong by the West to intervene. But after Ukraine’s mauling (and subsequent Western support) it is considerably weaker today. There is no statute of limitations for violations of international law and no best-before date for interventions aimed at and/or leading to the maintenance of international law. I say that Maduro’s regime was illegitimate, from an international law perspective, in every way. It cannot be witnessed by 19,000 dead, but their relatives can. At least those who are not too mentally damaged by torture.
I would have understood it better if it had happened then, then further murders could have been prevented. Then it would still have been a crime.
Maduro is not internationally wanted even though he is being investigated (and most likely guilty) but that’s not the point, it’s about the USA taking the right to unilaterally bomb and murder residents in another country, and to kidnap the president and his wife, based on accusations of being involved in drug trafficking while actually admitting that they want access to their oil.
Hopefully it will be good for Venezuela if Maduro disappears (we don’t know yet) and that he probably deserves to spend the rest of his life in prison does not mean that the USA does not deserve criticism for what they have done in my world.
Maybe we should agree to disagree?
https://open.substack.com/pub/shankarnarayan/p/why-europe-and-canada-closed-ranks
“Katie Miller’s post with a picture of Greenland covered in an American flag and the word ‘soon’ should be seen as a threat. That’s according to Rasmus Brun Pedersen, associate professor in international studies at Aarhus University, speaking to Danish TV2.
– I think it clearly should be seen as a threat. It is a sign that there are forces close to the president working to expand American territory at our expense, he says.
Katie Miller was previously the deputy press secretary to Donald Trump and is married to Trump’s advisor Stephen Miller.
Christian Friis Bach, chairman of the Danish Defense Committee, says it is obvious that forces within the Maga movement want to use the attack on Venezuela to put pressure on Greenland, but adds:
– What happened in Venezuela is directed against an illegal president accused of crimes. Greenland is a democratic and well-functioning country.”
“Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen reacts to the map image that Donald Trump’s former deputy press secretary Katie Miller published, illustrating the self-governing Danish island as American. In a post on Facebook, he calls it “disrespectful”.
“Relationships between countries and people are based on respect and international law, not on symbolic gestures that ignore our status and our rights,” Nielsen writes.
It was after the US’s arrest of Venezuela’s president that Miller published an image of Greenland covered by the American flag, followed by the word “soon”.
https://omni.se/gronlands-ledare-respektlos-bild/a/e78gbO
Interesting post today and good comments.
I think it’s good that Maduro is out of the game, the CIA seems to have done a good job. However, I don’t like the “prelude” with the bombing of the so-called drug boats. The aftermath is what will determine whether the USA deserves thanks or not.
Trump has the opportunity to improve the USA’s reputation by helping the Venezuelan people regain democracy in the country by supporting the country in holding new elections and guaranteeing security before and during the election.
Unfortunately, it will not happen, Trump has never talked about democracy, only drug smuggling and oil as reasons for the invasion. If Maduro had abandoned China and Russia and promised loyalty to Trump, he could have oppressed his own population as much as he wanted. Trump despises democracy, it’s too complicated to negotiate with democracies, with voting, etc., easier with a strong white man who decides everything.
Trump talks about controlling Venezuela until the right candidate is voted in, the woman who actually won the election has received the Nobel Peace Prize, so Trump will not approve her. Democracy is not in Trump’s plan. A USA-unfriendly dictator is to be replaced with a USA-unfriendly dictator. The oil is to go to the USA, the people may get a little better, as more money starts to flow through the country, but I’m afraid it’s only a matter of time before the people see what’s going on and happen and then the protests start, and then American security firms come in to secure the oil deliveries and then there will be troubled times again.
Russia’s and China’s reactions are as expected so far, just words, but nothing more. I’m afraid there is an agreement. I expected a little more, if it is true that Russia has Wagner in the country.
Time for Taiwan to get ready, and maybe also the Baltics.
If Trump feels like, oh, this went well, maybe Panama is next, Cuba, Greenland…
Time for Europe to take a stand.
The USA controls Venezuela through the blockade against the country’s oil exports and wants to avoid getting involved in a government formation. That’s what Foreign Minister Marco Rubio says in an interview with CBS News where he downplays Donald Trump’s statements about “ruling” the Latin American country.
According to Rubio, the White House is ready to cooperate with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, but they are monitoring the situation and expect her to make the “right decision.” He says that Venezuela needs to become “something completely different” than it is today, but that it may take time, and “we’ll see” what happens in the near future.
– We expect it to evolve in the right direction.
He says that Venezuela is “not the Middle East” and is critical of comparing Saturday’s actions to US interventions in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Former M-minister’s criticism of the government: ‘Must be said outright’
When Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defense comments on the attack on Venezuela, there is no mention of the USA.
Former Defense Minister Mikael Odenberg (M) believes it is wrong not to more clearly denounce the country.
“We must be clear that the actions of the USA are a violation of international law,” he says.
He understands that countries may be cautious about upsetting the American president, but he believes it is a problem that “the USA so blatantly violates international law.”
“Donald Trump has a view on international law that increasingly resembles Putin’s.”
SVT has contacted Minister for Foreign Affairs Maria Malmer Stenergard (M) and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M).”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/explosioner-i-venezuela?inlagg=3063015172076000aca692b18e85b91f
“European politicians are quick with formal diplomatic statements. But it would be better to keep reminding Putin’s Russia every day about the need to stop its bloody war against Ukraine. Because it looks like Europe is more concerned about a dictator in Venezuela than a dictator next door, in the Kremlin.
“So, if it’s possible to do such things with dictators [Maduro], then the United States knows what to do next,” the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said with a sarcastic smile to the press in Kyiv today.”
https://x.com/MrKovalenko/status/2007581710179811334?s=20
I agree, it feels strange when the USA goes after Venezuela but refuses to deal with lowering Putin who is even internationally wanted.
How do you eat an elephant? Syria, Iran now Venezuela, do you see a pattern? Otherwise, the alternative is division according to Johan. I hesitate on that.
Not entirely sure about an agreement between the three. Equally doubtful that the USA is acting as they are to weaken Russia. Although, of course, it is a welcome side effect.
The fastest way to eat the elephant would have been to give Ukraine everything they need so they could already have beaten the crap out of them, with some luck Russia would completely collapse in case of a loss. The fact that this is not done, and now not even doing anything to help Ukraine, I find telling.
It is easier to go to Venezuela, and it provides more spoils of war, in the form of Oil, which Trump likes.
Also, Putin and Trump have a worldview that syncs, and they are on opposite sides of the planet.
And THAT is the scary part about this
The White House has posted a self-glorifying video:
https://x.com/whitehouse/status/2007557671705293009?s=46
😂
“USA’s attack on Venezuela has given Putin rhetorical ammunition in the peace negotiations with Ukraine, according to Russia expert Martin Kragh.
The attack may be used to poke holes in the White House’s criticism of Russia.”
Donald Trump has his sights set on Venezuela’s gigantic oil reserves. He argues that American oil companies are ready to modernize the neglected industry, so that the oil can be extracted. Experts are divided on the feasibility of the plan.
One problem is that it requires huge investments over a long period of time – which presupposes political stability. This is according to Øystein Kalleklev, former CEO of Flex LNG, to the Norwegian DN.
Ole Hvalbye, oil analyst at SEB, is more optimistic. He argues that one thing in favor of Trump’s plan is that American oil companies know the region, which makes establishment relatively uncomplicated.
– Given that the US gains control over production and that it goes smoothly, Venezuela could reach the levels we saw in the 70s and 80s, he tells the newspaper and continues:
– It would add significant volumes to the market and in the long run push prices downwards. Then they become an extremely important player in the oil market.
Political stability is achieved when people are given the opportunity to participate in decision-making, proving to the people that the government is not there to seize natural resources but to help the people secure a better future, engaging in business that benefits both parties.
Can Trump and the USA do that? I’m afraid they can’t.
“Venezuela is ‘activating’ soldiers across the country following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro by the USA, says the country’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino according to Reuters. The purpose is said to be to ‘guarantee the country’s independence’.
In a TV broadcast, he says that the military supports the appointment of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president.
Padrino also says that large parts of Maduro’s security team were killed by American forces.”
Hm, it’s crucial that the USA plays its cards right now, if only the USA can convince the Venezuelans that the purpose of the invasion is good, and not just to replace one dictator with another and seize the oil, then it can go smoothly, otherwise it will probably be difficult.
Anders Puck Nielsen
“Trump’s attack on Venezuela signals a new era of U.S. imperialism”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T4hx4KjyQ8
I would like a transcript of this:
https://x.com/elicalebon/status/2007727724601979033?s=46
🇬🇧 “Do you know what the difference is between those who are celebrating the downfall of Maduro and those who are condemning it, or at least how it was done? The difference is privilege.
Do you understand how unbelievably lucky you have to be to be so deeply absorbed in the twists and turns of democracy, to think that the rest of the world lives like we live? Of course they don’t. They don’t have the luxury of talking about what was authorized, what was congressionally approved and what wasn’t. They are not negotiating with the innermost workings of democracy. They are negotiating with survival, with life and death.
It isn’t that we don’t need to have conversations about protecting our democracy—obviously we have to protect our democracy, otherwise we don’t get to keep it. It is about perspective. It is about knowing when to peel off the lens of privilege and seeing it through the eyes of the rest of the world that doesn’t matter to democracy.
They are negotiating with life and death. So when their dictators are toppled, they aren’t crying over the spilt milk of which avenue was taken in order to authorize the decision. They are celebrating something that we have become woefully out of touch with: life, humanity, dignity, liberty.
It isn’t that the conversation of democracy doesn’t need to be had. It’s that sometimes you can become so absorbed in your own privilege that you lose perspective of humanity.”
🇸🇪 “Do you know what the difference is between those who are celebrating the downfall of Maduro and those who are condemning it, or at least how it was done? The difference is privilege.
Do you understand how unbelievably lucky you have to be to be so deeply absorbed in the twists and turns of democracy, to think that the rest of the world lives like we live? Of course they don’t. They don’t have the luxury of talking about what was authorized, what was congressionally approved and what wasn’t. They are not negotiating with the innermost workings of democracy. They are negotiating with survival, with life and death.
It isn’t that we don’t need to have conversations about protecting our democracy—obviously we have to protect our democracy, otherwise we don’t get to keep it. It is about perspective. It is about knowing when to peel off the lens of privilege and seeing it through the eyes of the rest of the world that doesn’t matter to democracy.
They are negotiating with life and death. So when their dictators are toppled, they aren’t crying over the spilt milk of which avenue was taken in order to authorize the decision. They are celebrating something that we have become woefully out of touch with: life, humanity, dignity, liberty.
It isn’t that the conversation of democracy doesn’t need to be had. It’s that sometimes you can become so absorbed in your own privilege that you lose perspective of humanity.”
If Venezuela’s interim leader, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, does not do “what is right,” she will have to “pay a very high price.” That’s what US President Donald Trump said in an interview with The Atlantic.
– Probably higher than Maduro.
Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president after the US intervention over the weekend, but shortly thereafter stated that Maduro is the country’s legitimate leader.
Trump doesn’t like women in power that he can’t control, so I don’t think she’ll last long. He’ll want to bring in his own puppet.
I don’t know what people think of her, but it might be harder for the CIA to extract her.
Colombia next target?
It seems that the focus is already on Colombia. As far as I know, Gustavo Petro is democratically elected and does not oppress his population or the opposition. However, drugs are smuggled from Colombia to the USA, but the reason for the interest is probably rare earth metals.
Trump’s statement could be a serious threat to repeat the same thing there as in Venezuela, but it could also just be a threat to try to make Colombia more compliant.
Colombia does not have major oil reserves, but plenty of coal. However, what Trump might be most interested in is probably their ore deposits. In addition to having gold, copper, and other metals, they also have rare earth metals. There are already attempts at cooperation from the US regarding these, not so much for direct extraction but to secure them to avoid becoming dependent on China.
The EU is having similar dialogues with Colombia because we are also trying to find alternative suppliers other than China. If the USA takes control, it will also affect us.
“After the weekend’s attack on Venezuela, US President Donald Trump is turning his attention to the neighboring country Colombia.
– Colombia is also a very sick country, ruled by a sick man who likes to manufacture cocaine and sell it to the USA. And he won’t be doing it for much longer, I can promise you that, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, as reported by Bloomberg.
Trump was then asked if this means that the USA will take military action against Colombia.
– It sounds good to me, he replied.
“Colombia’s president, leftist politician Gustavo Petro, has been at odds with Trump for several months. He has strongly criticized the US intervention in Venezuela.” https://omni.se/donald-trump-hotar-colombia-med-militara-atgarder/a/wrPz2P
Donald Trump has threatened that Colombia could be next in line after Venezuela and has accused the country’s president Gustavo Petro of being a drug smuggler and called him a sick man.
“Stop defaming me, Mr. Trump,” Petro writes in a post on X.
He further writes that Trump does not know his history and is completely wrong in his criticism of Colombia, urging him instead to listen to his own experts working in the country on drug investigations.
“We Latin Americans are republicans and independent, and many of us are revolutionaries. Don’t think that Latin America is just a nest of criminals poisoning their people.”
Colombia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also rejected Trump’s accusations against Petro, stating that the accusations ignore fundamental principles of international law, as reported by the Colombian El Tiempo.” https://omni.se/colombias-president-sluta-fortala-mig-herr-trump/a/k0Jg2a
Greenland gets a reprieve.
“The USA does not currently want to discuss the Greenland issue, announced President Donald Trump during the night towards Monday.
– I don’t want to talk about Greenland. I want to talk about Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine, said the American president to reporters on Air Force One.
In an interview with The Atlantic, published on Sunday, Trump reiterated his message that the USA “needs Greenland,” which led to strong reactions from Denmark.
– We will worry about Greenland in about two months. Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days, said Trump tonight.”
After Donald Trump’s seizure of Nicolás Maduro, the United States has taken political and economic control over Venezuela, according to analysts. In total, the USA now controls 40 percent of the world’s oil production.
Trump now has his own oil empire, according to Bloomberg’s commodity analyst Javier Blas.
“Having de facto control over the petroleum assets of the Western Hemisphere is a geopolitical revolution,” he writes.
FT’s Edward Luce writes under the headline “Trump now owns Venezuela” and speculates on how Trump will govern the country:
“There is a lot of wealth beneath Venezuela’s soil. Trump is now determined to extract it,” he writes.
But despite the tumultuous geopolitical event, markets are expected to react mildly, according to Bloomberg’s John Authers.
“The main reason markets should be able to take this in stride is unfortunately that Venezuela currently does not play a significant role, despite the country having enormous oil reserves,” he writes.