Unfortunately, we have to start with Trump since he has incited a full trade war here – it’s ongoing and it’s moving extremely fast.
If it’s the case that Trump doesn’t have a bigger plan than what we see, and moreover doesn’t understand economics, then we should reasonably expect a de-escalation from him right away. Vietnam and the EU have both offered him the best deal possible, and even Trump knows that interstate war is not as good as trade deals, presumably?
Yes, I’m getting very frustrated because I was working internationally in 2008 and also in 2020, and rapid changes are hard to navigate. However, I was lucky during the whole 2008 debacle because I was working in Angola until 2016.
In 2020, I got hit hard and ended up stuck in Kuwait for seven months at the Hilton resort – a trauma I’m still trying to process because you can probably understand the difficulties of being forced to eat filet mignon morning, noon, and night 😡
I’ve been checking with the people I work for because they have the resources to run the project, but yes, they are planning to buy all materials from China so we’ll see what happens there, and then the plan is to use the export terminal for the US market of course, but everyone seems to be pushing for the project to continue.
The family is also with me, and we will make all trips together so there’s no risk of being separated again. And finally, we have our very own three-step rocket – Sweden, Portugal, Angola, where we have our own food production in Angola if it comes to that, but read to the end and you’ll surely regain hope.
The EU has stated to stay put and that the US can go through its own BREXIT calmly, even though that’s not at all what I think is about to happen here.
But China didn’t stay put at all, which then led to a full trade war whether we in the EU wanted it or not. A bit like a divorce where one partner won’t divorce and the other does – it ends up in divorce anyway.
Russia took several steps towards escalating the conflict globally, with October 7, 2023 being their last major (successful) move. Then Israel had the audacity to completely overpower both Hamas and Hezbollah, which wasn’t the intention at all with Hezbollah at least – Hamas was the sacrificial anodes.
After that, RU was unexpectedly kicked out of Syria entirely, and their expedition in Africa was also temporarily disrupted one can guess. However, they have now shifted a lot to Libya, and you won’t get any prizes for guessing what they have in mind there – something that worked well in 2015 🧐
But… the pace of global escalation was disrupted in the aftermath of the Kursk invasion, even though RU intends to test NATO and try to grab Svalbard by September this year at the latest, which you know if you’ve read the posts here.
Despite RU not being able to escalate further, the pace in the world is skyrocketing right now – it’s spiraling out of control and we’re soon at the point in the trade war where it’s beyond control.
And it’s actually only the USA/Trump who is handling all of this entirely on his own – Trump has incited a full trade war with the world, and at least China won’t back down and meets Chinese-style by not being able to pronounce the letter R when they threaten Trump with our time’s devastating war.
Trump is doing just like with Ukraine – making unreasonable idiotic demands, and when Ukraine complied, he immediately changed to something even worse while talking down the country and Zelensky in extremely humiliating terms for UA – maximum provocation. I find it hard to see how one can provoke more than this without reaching the level of armed conflict.
Vietnam chose to be the adults in the room in the trade war – they directly contacted the USA and proposed “zero-tariffs,” which essentially means that whatever tariffs Trump mistakenly thought they had against the USA, even if none were true, they would promise to remove them and fully comply with Trump in everything – just say yes, yes, I agree to all the madness and bow down with a slight Asian deep bow. Just buttering up Trump and massaging his ego.
Trump told them to go to hell and that he doesn’t need anything made in that sh1thole country Vietnam. Nike’s leadership collectively had a heart attack when it flashed by on CNN during the morning meeting.
Even though just a few days before, Trump had declared to the world that that was the purpose of the tariffs – “come to us and negotiate, whoever comes first gets the best deal ever, first come, first served.” A bit sneaky but also cozy horse trader, everyone thought.
Same with the EU – we generously offered to lower all tariffs to zero on the products most important to the USA, so not zero-tariffs across the board but the exports that would be most attractive for the USA to reduce costs to zero on. Von Der Leyen stood there, smiling her widest politician smile straight into the cameras and said, “Europe is always up for a mutually good deal and ready to negotiate with our great friend the USA.”
Trump also told the EU to go to hell right away, but didn’t stop there – we will be FINED heavily for our enormous audacity to exist 🤣
So, he’s acting like a schoolyard bully and now demands that we should send him “a lot of money” just to even consider “starting to talk with the idiots” (the last part is my dramatization).
I read an article yesterday about how the EU leaders are now leaning back and watching the USA head towards its painful BREXIT – and that we are in no hurry at all. It got me a bit teary-eyed if it’s true, but maybe it’s just someone painting freely?
At the same time, China has confirmed that they will not back down on the tariffs – which automatically means that they will respond to Trump’s “50% penalty tariff for not bending immediately, you damn bat eaters” as soon as it comes – was it April 9th?
Then they’ve also devalued their currency, right?
Then they stopped exporting “rare earth materials” to the whole world, and China holds 69% of the world market.
Russia had some as well but has stopped exporting, so I can’t figure out what the export shortfall was/is from them, but they can still easily export it to China.
So what does this mean for the USA and EU in terms of getting critical raw materials for our production?
Our green technology, electric cars, computers, phones, components, etc., we can’t build – if we were to want to build such things.
Our defense production maybe as we try to ramp up 🧐
So all of you who thought the world would immediately rally around the USA and unite against them – what did China just do, well they struck against the whole world?
What has Trump (USA!!) been doing in the past few months?
They have, in any case, intended to significantly increase the production of rare earth minerals.
And you, like me, have read about how the USA is planning to cut down old-growth forests, increase coal-fired energy, and so on – but what is it?
Well, it’s about securing domestic access to raw materials for domestic production when the world market freezes in a trade war – which the USA initiated, those bastards 😡
And all these steps were taken several months ago 🧐
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/03/trump-national-forest-executive-order
What steps has the EU just taken besides the fact that we have to import 100% of our rare earth minerals that we need?
Well, we would start by preserving forests, closing agricultural land, and we have certainly had a debate in Sweden where “a certain party” has strongly advocated against mining our own domestic rare earth minerals.
We have very few of our own raw materials in the EU, and some weapons made of fossil-free steel will definitely not be one, that’s where I’d put my money.
Apparently, we import 99% of the Boron we need from Turkey – you can Google for yourselves what can no longer be produced if Turkey decides to stop exporting it to us.
This is the current plan of the EU –
- Benchmarks: The EU aims to extract at least 10% of the raw materials it consumes, produce at least 40% of its annual consumption of strategic raw materials through processing, and produce at least 25% of its annual consumption through recycling waste by 2030.
A bit inadequate when 100% of our import of rare earth minerals disappeared overnight 😶
Will the EU and China quickly find a balance and cooperate against the USA – probably not, as the EU is currently planning to impose tariffs against China so that we are not flooded with what they can no longer export to the USA 🤣
(the article is actually a few days old, like a bad joke, and even a Chinese person can surely Google).
This has escalated extremely quickly, and the fact that the EU is currently “sitting still and waiting” while we have done everything in our power to not strengthen our own domestic industry now that world trade is about to freeze is our own fault, no one else’s, mostly the Green Party of course.
But the rest is actually the fault of the USA and Trump, and Trump is neither a babbling idiot nor a heaven-sent genius playing 5D chess to make the world a better place.
-The USA wants to try to clip China’s wings before they become too strong – that’s common knowledge.
-We also know since 2022 that the USA wants a Russia that has not collapsed, and that is very bad for the EU.
-Then we can now reasonably assume that the USA wants to bring Europe back into a cold war that will also involve China. During the Cold War, the USA had its best years ever – maybe they want to return to that and have their second-best years?
-I don’t think the USA wants a full-scale global war, but the most difficult thing about wars is that they spiral out of control as soon as they start.
It probably wasn’t on many people’s bingo card on January 19th that the USA would take over the baton from Russia and increase the global pressure cooker.
I thought it couldn’t get worse than Biden’s Ukraine policy, and then Trump would slowly poison the USA internally over 4 years, and we could laugh at all the craziness that didn’t affect us – and it would also give the EU significant advantages. To lead us towards a full-scale world war in two months is quite an achievement, absolute cynicism 😡
I remember my discussions from 2022 that the EU should quickly establish strategic partnerships in Africa and give them fair trade agreements – do you think it was perhaps because we would end up at this point?
Now I also understand that good advice is never heeded, but when China controlled 69% of the world’s rare earth material exports, and together with the USA and Russia almost all of it, securing countries in Africa becomes almost a matter of survival.
This is something we should have done years ago, but do you know who has taken over Africa (or you do if you’ve read the posts) RU and China.
The USA is preparing for war, they have been stingy with direct military support to UA and Europe because they knew it would escalate – because they intended to drive it.
They have secured raw materials, they have production capacity, and they have eliminated Russia’s threatening arsenal. Perhaps the USA didn’t want Europe to be completely overrun by Russia, but at most, it becomes a cold war.
China still does not have anything close to what the USA has in terms of military equipment today – China is NOT prepared for war today.
The USA is simply ready for a global conflict if it were to come, and a cold war where the EU ends up with Russia on top of them like a wet blanket, they probably don’t mind at all.
None of this is actually guesswork but things that have been previously discussed.
The big difference is that Trump has set the entire playing field in motion in record time, and while everyone is watching the world’s most insane negotiation strategy that will give us BREXIT 2.0 for the USA, we are also taking several big steps closer to a global major conflict.
The problem with China is that they are Chinese, and in my opinion, you need a number of years to understand them. The risk of a crash between the EU and China in a very high pitch seems imminent, and after that, a full-scale interstate war is just a trigger away.
And at least Russia, perhaps also the USA, will ensure that we get exactly the right trigger at the right time – false flags as a start of war are almost standard procedure 😀
Experts and individuals in sensitive decision-making positions are probably quite shaken now as they begin to realize how close we are to a global conflict.
One thing we said back in 2022 was that when Europe feels threatened by Russia, countries’ Chiefs of Defense will start working on their job descriptions and demand significantly increased national defense, and then we neglect Ukraine.
Something that arises because the EU has not secured the raw materials is a shortage of equipment in military production?
Likely also a component shortage because China may stop delivering a single component to a product that then remains 99.9% complete and sits there in the parking lot.
Important not to forget Ukraine.
I maintain my previous position that –
-how China chooses to act will determine whether we are heading towards a global conflict or not.
-if Ukraine can make Russia turn inward and we take Belarus and demilitarize Kaliningrad, Europe has secured the eastern border for the next 200 years, and we want Ukraine with us in the EU.
Below could perhaps be the best outcome if we end up in a global conflict –
-EU solves the eastern border as mentioned above within a reasonable time – it requires some tough decisions, but when RU is expelled from Ukraine, Belarus has joined us, and Kaliningrad is demilitarized, we build our front lines and bunker systems in our time’s great frog-eater line that works this time. Then we close the damn border against Russia and uproot the subversive activities at the roots. This is something we must do and cannot try to delegate to others, but it is also the end of Europe’s participation in our time’s global conflict. We will have lost hundreds of thousands of civilians and military personnel, but it stops there, and the likelihood of our success is high.
-The USA and China are in an interstate war, and Asia is becoming the great battlefield of our time; the region will be devastated, and the question is whether South Korea will survive. Europe might as well stay out of it because it will be an absolutely enormous power struggle, and eventually, they will tire after 200 million dead and come to some kind of peace agreement. China can never invade the USA, and the USA does not have the ability to invade China, so you all understand that they will continue to clash until they tire.
-Israel is overrun; not many war games end with them coming out victorious, unfortunately. The country is small, and now super cheap drones have proven to be the great weapons of our time. The only nuclear weapons fired in the war will be from Israel in self-defense against neighbors. Israel’s strength – being a multi-ethnic country – is also what will be its downfall because there are enough people on the inside who will switch sides when they smell blood.
-Europe quickly turns to Africa and does what I have been suggesting for years. Together with Africa, we will have a market of over two billion people, combining Europe’s high technology with Africa’s natural resources. We provide all countries with fair trade agreements and try to lift ourselves up together with them. I have long been enthusiastic about Africa, and it has its reasons.
-The EU is trying to balance rearmament, limited war with Russia, peace economy, and Africa, and with a bit of luck, we will emerge from this as a huge powerhouse.
I believe the USA has bitten off more than they can chew here, wanting to both dampen Europe and confront China – I am less interested in what happens to the USA post-war, and China, as Europe will emerge strengthened from this together with Africa.
I understand that I am a bit early as usual, but right now, I feel that it will no longer matter what Ukraine does.
Previously, I have warned about the global conflict and that at some point, it will take on a life of its own, and no currently living leader will be able to control it.
And then I have advocated that Ukraine can de-escalate our current global conflict by turning Russia inwards.
After Trump’s latest rampage, I believe we are dangerously close to the point where Ukraine is no longer relevant to the conflict, if not already past it.
But as you can see above, it is crucial for Europe not to miss out on a good crisis, and if the right steps are taken – with Africa being one of the key elements – then all of us reading these posts will have less direct impact from the war and a brighter future for our children.
Everyone except the Balts, who will probably be completely blown away, but if we managed to live with ourselves after the Baltic extradition, we can probably steel ourselves against this too.
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https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Swedish rescuers, whom I have been in contact with, work quietly and deliver supplies to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
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Good morning!
The Russian losses in Ukraine on 2025-04-09:
1270 KIA
4 Tanks
10 APVs
52 Artillery systems
1 Anti-Aircraft system
56 UAVs
118 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
Artillery and KIA stand firm. Otherwise, there was artillery fire (see report below).
Russia launches mass drone attack on Kharkiv, injures at least 1 person. At least 15 explosions rocked Kharkiv late on April 8, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said. One person was injured, according to preliminary information.
“Russia: ‘The Russian Orthodox Church has warned about Satanists who have infiltrated medicine and education.’ This was in Kommersant! 🇷🇺: Please focus on something other than the economy, like evil Satanists!”
“Russia: ‘Russia to tighten control over purchase and sale of coins and bars in banks’ Because the Ministry of Finance is worried people will take their gold and flee.”
“💔 Antalet skadade i Dnipro har ökat till 10, sex av dem har blivit inlagda på sjukhus. 🙏 I Kharkiv skadades två personer till följd av det ryska angreppet.”
“USA’s president Donald Trump mocks world leaders who want to make trade deals with the country, reports AFP.
– Countries call us and kiss my ass.
He also said that countries beg and pray to try to reach a deal.
– Please, please sir, agree to a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir, he said, mocking the leaders.”
https://omni.se/trump-havdar-att-lander-kysser-hans-arsle-for-deals/a/1MbWOJ
“Donald Trump’s long-promised tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be announced shortly.
The purpose is to bring back pharmaceutical production to the USA, which Trump believes has become too dependent on foreign suppliers.”
https://omni.se/trump-lakemedelstullar-offentliggors-snart/a/EynvjA
“The USA’s daily revenue from tariffs amounts to 2 billion dollars. That’s what Donald Trump says during an event at the White House, according to Reuters.”
https://omni.se/trump-tullarna-drar-nu-in-2-miljarder-dollar-om-dagen/a/PpAnG0
And the daily expenses 😂?
🤫 😂
“Trump påstår att länder som drabbats av amerikanska tullar “kysser hans rumpa” för att säkra handelsavtal. Han kallade sin tullpolitik för en “krig med världen” men klargjorde senare att nationer är ivriga att förhandla: “Japan är på ett flygplan hit just nu – tuffa förhandlare.” Film:
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmehmq7p4k24
Update as of 08.00 09.04.2025 on the Russian invasion
A total of 161 combat engagements were recorded over the past day.
#Kharkiv 3
#Kupyansk 5
#Lyman 17💥
#Siverskyi 4
#Kramatorsk 6
#Toretsk 18💥
#Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥
#Novopavlivka 13💥
#Huliaipol 3
#Orikhivsk 4
#Kursk 25💥
In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 stopped 58 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor in the areas of Kalynove, Yelizavetivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka and Andriivka.
In the operational zone in the Kursk region, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces🇺🇦 repelled 25 attacks by Russian invaders over the past day. In addition, the enemy launched 35 air strikes using 50 guided bombs, and also fired 323 artillery shells at the positions of our troops and settlements, including seven from multiple launch rocket systems.
Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces🇺🇦 hit 10 areas of concentration of personnel and equipment of the Russian invaders.
👍
Fair trade agreements with Africa sound like a good proposal. Russia has nothing to offer except Wagner soldiers, and in the scenario above, China will be busy defending its interests against the USA, including all “side projects” in Latin America, including the Panama Canal.
What Europe also has is a relationship with India. However, India is largely a raw material importer and has been active in buying cheap Russian oil after the sanctions.
So, India differs from Africa in several ways and may not be comparable. However, India is a great power economically, militarily, and in terms of population. And a potential partner both economically and militarily.
What about Latin America, from Europe’s perspective? For Sweden, there is JAS export to Colombia and previously to Brazil. Also, quite a few side projects on this continent that may be outperformed with good trade agreements.
Several countries in Latin America are members of BRICS, but what strength is there in BRUCS with an economically weak Russia and China engaged in a trade war with the USA?
I have deliberately omitted India and Pakistan because I believe they will keep a low profile.
Noteworthy that the USA has regained control of the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan – why and how did that happen?
I don’t really believe in the evil plan that you describe the USA as having, but it could still end up exactly like that if things get out of hand. China’s actions will probably, as you suggest, have a significant impact, but also how far Trump intends to push this.
He wants countries to come and beg and pray, while at the same time mocking those who do.
One could imagine that he is escalating to secure good deals, yet at the same time he really seems to love his tariffs and rejects proposals where countries agree to remove all tariffs.
What you wrote yesterday about him maybe wanting the USA to keep tariffs but not allowing other countries to have tariffs against the USA, I think that’s pretty close to what he wants to achieve. On the other hand, it’s probably only a few countries that are completely dependent on the USA that would consider agreeing to that, and if China stands firm, we will end up in a global tariff/trade war anyway.
This could paralyze Europe in a way that causes a loss of focus on Ukraine and also makes it difficult to increase support. This, in turn, could pave the way for your September scenario.
Now, I don’t think we will end up there, because I believe Trump will be forced to give in when the effects start to be felt in the USA. A majority is already against how he is handling the tariffs, and it will get worse as prices rise.
Hanlon’s razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity” is a rule I believe quite a lot in. If everything were a malicious plan worthy of a Bond villain 2.0, I think they would have made sure to count somewhat correctly in the Excel sheet for customs duties at least, and they would have refrained from including a journalist in the Signal group, etc. I absolutely believe that Putin has a strong hold on Trump, who otherwise plays freely at will; it feels like the Republicans will gradually turn more and more against him, which they have started to do regarding the tariffs. We’ll see how much damage he manages to cause before then.
Yes, I reason a bit along those lines, but it could still end up in the same chaos as if he actually had a malicious plan, but with the difference that the USA will suffer just as badly themselves.
When it comes to the hold hooks, I am a bit more skeptical. I don’t really believe in any compromising material, however, Trump has received help from Russia, both financially and with the election campaign, so he probably owes Putin a debt of gratitude, besides the fact that he really seems to like him.
Are both Trump and Putin hypochondriacs?
Could germs be what unites them?
Maybe so! Personally, I see both of them as parasites! 😀
Of course, there is a risk that we will have a global trade war like in 1930, but I still believe that it is more likely that we will not end up there. It is a fact that only the USA (or rather v1tA Hu!SeT in the USA!) seems to want to repeat 1930. The rest of the world will slowly adapt by shifting trade that can be moved and making new agreements. We can already see it, China, Japan, and South Korea are exploring possibilities to reduce trade barriers in the region, the EU is in contact with China, and Canada is seeking new trade routes. There will be a global downturn, but the USA will be the most affected because they are waging trade wars against the whole world.
Do you think it will be one of our infamous “we have been naive” 😀
Customs, tariffs. I feel a nagging worry that the country’s economy will cool off in a way we haven’t experienced before. And that unemployment will increase significantly. Fewer and fewer people have to support more and more. Around 100,000 people continue to come to our country each year. All because the economy is expected to expand. Growth has become an axiom in the Western world. I sense that too many people are supported by public funds from the municipality and the state in the form of social assistance and various educations. It becomes impossible to lower taxes. On the contrary, they must be raised. Yes, one can ponder. Especially now when new tariffs will further disrupt the machinery.
I think Sweden is in a bad position in this regard. With highly self-inflicted overregulation and other factors draining taxes, there is a whole range of issues to delve into.
Furthermore, the opposition has already proposed increased taxes as a remedy for everything, so if they win the election, it’s guaranteed.
100,000 per year.
How many more doctors and researchers do we need to bring here?
It is unfortunate that we are draining other countries of their highly educated professionals whom they need themselves…. Juh
I must say that those were very interesting theories, I like that.
But I have a small thought about whether Russia as a nation will even exist by the end of the year.
I believe the reason the USA wants a quick end to the war is because Russia as a nation is now hanging by a thread.
The chance of them coming out of this unscathed is very slim.
Most likely, Chechnya will be the first to break away.
Of course, then Siberia will see its opportunity.
And with that, China will focus all its efforts on trying to gain control over Vladivostok.
We must remember that what strengthened Europe was the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
I actually see a continued decline of Russian imperialism as inevitable.
Putin has only paused that process.
Consider a scenario where Russia collapses by the fall of this year.
In fact, I believe most leaders, civilian and military, in Europe and the USA are aware that such a situation is highly probable.
I hope you are right.
I hope you are right.
If Ukraine gets a beating, RU will turn inwards – I have been waiting for it for three years.
When they turn inwards, it will be a power struggle and ten new countries.
But above all, the USA has stopped this for three years now…
Crude Oil is down to 57.9. Can’t find any current information on Urals oil, but it probably follows suit and further deteriorates Russia’s margins.
“Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to April 6 fell to 3.23 million barrels a day, their lowest in a month and about 220,000 barrels a day below their recent peak, – Bloomberg”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lmek2bfudc22
🛳️🛢️ Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to April 6 fell to 3.23 million barrels a day, their lowest in a month and about 220,000 barrels a day below their recent peak, – Bloomberg
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lmek2bfudc22
OPEC has indeed increased production by 140,000 barrels in April and will triple it in May.
No oil shortage but rather a shortage of buyers of URAL.
Thank you johanno1. Good post today! I won’t pick on the details anymore, just noting that Trump doing what he’s said for 40 years is good for the USA. And mind you, the tariffs are designed to reduce imports to the USA country by country so that theoretically it becomes a bilateral trade balance.
Therefore, it doesn’t matter that Vietnam (or the EU) offers free trade without tariffs – Trump doesn’t want to achieve free trade, he wants to eliminate it instead.
And yes, he believes that high tariffs against the whole world will make the USA rich. Just like in 1930, in other words.
And since he is an extremist, this and the rest of the mega project are being wildly swung against the whole world at the same time.
You are absolutely right, the USA is biting off a lot and running a very high risk of losing the whole piece.
China has now raised its spikes, but I interpret their restrictions on rare earth metals as being aimed at the USA. As some wise person expressed on Bluesky, to target the USA, all exports need to be tightened up so that the USA doesn’t trade through proxies.
The EU was easily swayed, and yesterday the news came from von Leyen that the EU has started talks with China on trade in these times of uncertainty. Strangely enough, I don’t feel worried about this, all the big players, EU, UK, China, Japan, Korea, Australia, etc., want free trade. And we will continue to have it.
It is in this context, I believe, that we should understand the European Commission and Brussels’ reaction of not acting hastily – it applies in relation to the US tariffs. These are so harmful to the USA that nothing the EU could come up with at present would have the same harmful effect. However, the EU is working on strengthening trade with the rest of the world, in my interpretation. And high on the list is China; unfortunately, the EU is in a similar situation as the USA (almost) regarding rare earth metals. The EU actually has some extraction already, and even recycling works decently, but as you have written, there is still much to be done. So, it’s smart to immediately start talks with China.
As for the USA! Well, at least they have Trump’s permission to start prospecting 😂.
The USA, with President Biden, has now become the uSA! under Tr0mp. Welcome to the crap circus!
👍
A bit confusing right now, I have always been annoyed with the Democrats for wanting tariffs, now it’s suddenly the other way around.
Gop thought it was time to try something new and fresh.
Very cunning Lynx – opens by not discussing the tariffs and then discusses the tariffs, psychology of the highest order to say the least 🧐
Lynx outsmarts us all! 😀
Seen through 😭.
Contemporary military history (see article in NYT last week)
Zaluzhnyi reveals details of Wiesbaden HQ in Ukraine’s war effort, calls it ‘secret weapon’
https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-reveals-role-of-wiesbaden-hq-in-war-effort-calls-it-secret-weapon/
👍
Ryska styrkor överträffar ibland Ukraina med 10 till 1 i Lyman-sektorn, säger militären. “Ryssarna pressar med en otrolig mängd infanteri, vilket de helt enkelt har mycket av,” sa den ukrainska militärens talesperson Anastasia Blyshchyk.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-intensifies-assaults-in-lyman-sector-with-mass-infantry-drone-attacks-military-says/
Ukrainian forces wiped out a Russian convoy of buggies and MT-LBs on the Novopavlivka axis. The column was moving from Yasenove toward Bohdanivka via the southern outskirts of Sribne. 155-mm crews from tactical group VUHLEDAR went working and left nothing of the column.
“Kina skickade inte sin militärpersonal för att delta i kriget i Ukraina,” – representant för Kinas utrikesdepartement (MFA)
There are ethnic groups in the eastern parts of the Muscovite Empire who speak Chinese dialects, though. And I guess there might be fortune seekers from China.
It would definitely raise the stakes if there were Chinese people there with China’s blessing. Might even get Tr0mp to react, too.
“China’s top leaders are planning a summit on Wednesday to address the rapidly escalating trade conflict with the USA, writes Reuters.”
“The White House seems to have made it a practice not to provide comments to reporters who disclose which pronouns they use.
The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt describes it as ‘a matter of principle.’
‘A reporter who chooses to disclose which pronouns they prefer obviously does not care about biological reality or the truth, and therefore we cannot trust that they report honestly,’ she says.”
War in Ukraine, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, etc., add a global trade war, Russian aggression towards the Baltics, and Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
Some are too fixated on pronouns when the world has bigger problems.
The struggle continues 🤡!
“The former leader of the Azov Battalion, Bogdan Krotevytj, demands that Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrskij, be fired. According to Krotevytj, the military leadership does not understand how modern warfare works and has issued orders that are ‘bordering on criminal’.”
The butcher from Bachmut had a rather bad reputation that improved when entering Kursk.
Now that there is not much left of Kursk, the criticism returns.
I have my suspicions about Sirsky but everything is unfounded
The discussions about Iran’s nuclear energy program must lead to the US “blowing up” Iran’s nuclear facilities. This statement is made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of this weekend’s “informal talks” between the US and Iran.
“We go in, blow up the facilities, dismantle all equipment – under American supervision. That is the perfect scenario.”
Then we know it.
When no calls are needed on Saturday or does Trump believe he will get the mullahs to blow it up themselves?
😂
The USA has already decided to take down Iran and it must happen before a global conflict starts
Tammy Bruce, Spokesperson for the United States Department of State:
◾️China is a major enabler of Russia in the war
◾️China provides nearly 80% of the dual-use items Russia needs to sustain the war
◾️The USA is aware that Ukraine captured 2 Chinese soldiers fighting on Russia’s side. It’s “disturbing””
USA is going to keep its insane tariffs, and everyone just has to accept it.
Then you understand that he doesn’t care about the countries that have offered to completely remove their tariffs.
So, he is not at all in favor of any form of free trade or reaching any kind of fair levels; he simply wants high tariffs but refuses to approve tariffs in the other direction.
The question is, what have the countries that “kissed his ass” achieved? I guess nothing.
“Trump’s Tariff Demands:
▪️No retaliation – just accept US tariffs.
▪️Buy more American – especially defense equipment.
▪️Build factories in the US to avoid tariffs by manufacturing on American soil.
▪️Invest in American manufacturing and directly support American industry.
All of this is summarized by the White House’s top economist and Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran.”
Just like in 1930, the USA has come to believe that it is not free trade that creates value but tariffs. Unfortunate for everyone but absolutely most unfortunate for the USA!
I think I wrote before about Mar-A-Lago, we can have our opinions about what is happening (personally not happy as I have a lot of investments that have decreased significantly) but it is logical. The tariffs are one thing, the big stumbling block is the American national debt. I previously wrote about how the US interest costs (search for US debt watch clock) are not sustainable. I am fairly certain that Trump and others have gone to different countries and offered them the following: 1. Reduce the value of the USD – tip, search for what happened in the mid-1980s, they then agreed to basically halve the value of the USD (if I remember correctly) so that American businesses become competitive. If we go back to 1985? it led to Japan (the major exporter at the time) having to significantly lower interest rates to keep the country running. A housing bubble was built up that peaked in 1989/1990, Japan never returned to its former glory days. Should we believe that something similar will happen in China? 2. Convert the American national debt into 0% bonds with a 100-year maturity. I don’t think the EU, China, or Japan for that matter were thrilled about this. Today, for example, Steinar Juul (with experience from the Norwegian central bank, Nordea) warns that parts of the Norwegian oil fund could essentially become worthless. Trump has also said that not all American debt is legitimate. If you don’t agree to 1 and 2 above, then Trump and others will start a hell of a mess. That’s what we are seeing play out now, Trump and others know very well that the Chinese control rare earth metals, which is why he desperately seeks to involve Russia (and is willing to throw the UA under the bus if necessary). China is now playing hardball – they have stopped buying American oil and LNG. The question is, can they win? I don’t think so, I also don’t think the Chinese dare to start a war given how drone technology has developed recently. Invading Taiwan is more or less a suicide mission, invading South Korea from the north against an opponent that is technologically at least as good as the Chinese? I don’t think so. The EU and Europe are dependent on the USA and American oil/gas. I believe that the EU’s countermove to the USA and trade tariffs will be to tax the American mega tech companies through some form of Digital Service tax. Trump and others have already accepted that people’s assets will decrease, otherwise, I don’t think Europe will act. Now I see that China has responded with an 84% tariff on American goods so they are not backing down. Regarding Israel: I think your (Johan No1) analysis is wrong here, Trump and others’ conclusion is to turn the Arab states against Iran and not against Israel. We already see that Saudi and Dubai are establishing or have established diplomatic relations, Egypt is okay with Israel. Why should the Arab countries turn against Israel when the main enemy is Iran? Israel is high-tech and the Arab states know that revenues from oil will one day decline and they must diversify. It’s better to be with Israel than Iran, also consider that the USA is a protector for the royal families in the Arab states.
Additional comment to the above:
I just wonder how the USA will be able to follow up on not bypassing / significantly bypassing the Chinese tariffs. China has a tradition of not following rules, the prohibition of alcohol in the 1920s shows that people are willing to do anything to bypass rules.
Is it unreasonable to imagine that China exports its products to the USA via a third country, for example a country that has 10/20% tariffs against the USA? I think it is a conceivable scenario, perhaps Canada or Mexico will become a transit country for Chinese smuggling in the future? Big money can be made if one is creative.
It is always the importer who is responsible for ensuring that the correct country of origin is stated at importation. The scale of penalties surely corresponds to how much has been imported with the wrong country of origin.
https://www.kommerskollegium.se/importera–exportera/handla-utanfor-eu/ursprungsregler-i-frihandelsavtal/allmanna-ursprungsregler/
The question is not what Sweden allows but how the Chinese will get around the US tariffs. After all, there is quite a long border with Canada and Mexico where goods could potentially slip through.
With 0% bonds, I obviously meant 0% interest and 100 years old. In other words, a worthless government security.
Interesting thoughts!
Oops – check this out, I was only wrong about one point in a sea of wild guesses 😍
Give myself a 9/10 rating ✊✊✊
Oh, so modest! I thought you would rate yourself at least 12/10? 😉
104% like the customs officers 👍🏻
“Drones attacked Russia at night: ‼️ According to Russian MoD, 158 UAVs targeted multiple regions, including the Mozdok airbase, Kuban, Rostov, Saratov and Oryol.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lmegzvyckc22
Fundraising dinner for 1 for Ukraine!
Should suit DenGamle and all fans of Fredagsfylla! 😀
“Welcome to an exclusive evening at the Spirits Museum on the Royal Djurgården – an evening for visionaries who want to make a difference: together we save lives in Ukraine”
https://1forukraine-dinner-april-2025.confetti.events/
Regarding the SVT Aktuellt segment about Russia allocating 40% of the budget to the war and therefore being able to sustain it for a long time because there is still 60% more to draw from.
I don’t put much stock in that analysis.
Society would collapse completely if they were to use 100% of the budget for the war.
For instance, pensions and salary payments to government employees would be halted.
When the retirement age was raised last time, there was almost a revolt.
How would it end if no pensions were paid out at all?
But let’s set that aside.
Regarding defense spending, I found these figures on the share of the state budget:
2022 28%
2023 35%
2024 29.4%
2025 32.5%
When talking about 40%, it is estimates of the total costs and not just for defense, e.g. weapon production, recruitment costs, compensation for the dead and wounded, etc.
These are more estimates than official figures but I found this information anyway.
2024 40%
2025 41%
If Russia could really increase its defense spending to a significant extent, wouldn’t they have done so already? They are struggling to push Ukraine out of Russia, only gaining a few square kilometers of land per month and are infinitely far from defeating Ukraine and even taking control of the four oblasts they claim are theirs.
So, the war is going really badly for Russia and costing them enormous amounts of money.
If Russia had the economy for it, they would presumably have significantly increased the budget for 2025 to reach a decisive outcome and end the war with a substantial profit.
Say Putin allocated 80% to the war, with an army twice as large, Ukraine probably wouldn’t be able to resist (unless all support significantly increased).
Certainly, some argue that Putin “cannot end the war,” but faced with the choice of continuing to impoverish Russia year after year, I am convinced that he would rather achieve a great victory as quickly as possible.
The overheating of the economy due to the arms industry, etc., could easily be replaced by the reconstruction of Ukraine, and many of the disillusioned soldiers could also be employed for that purpose if one wants to soften the transition to peace.
My opinion is that Russia absolutely does not have the ability to make any significant increases in war expenditures; if that were the case, it would have already happened.
Putin probably pushes himself to the maximum during a war of aggression against another country. If it was about defending the country, he could probably push a bit further, but not to 100%.
Reaching 100% would have put Russia on the same level as in Leningrad during World War II when people had to eat their neighbor’s children to survive.
It’s quite a peculiar conclusion, using 40% is rather close to what is possible even considering that the budget applies to the state of the Muscovite Empire. 60% remaining, remaining of what..?
The overheating must be monumental now, and all economic signals are pointing to red.
Completely agree, I think they are pushing it to the max and the results, i.e., the slowdown, rather indicate that they have peaked.
🤣🤣🤣
“First Look: Ukraine’s New Anti-Shahed Interceptor Drone. This drone has already proven effective, having destroyed 20 Shahed as well as 10 reconnaissance drones in the past two months. It can reach speeds of up to 200 km/h and fly at altitudes of up to 5 km.”
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lmenajxl2k2n
Close down the General Inheritance Fund and use the 16 billion in cash to strengthen Sweden’s total defense. That’s what SD leader Jimmie Åkesson and his party colleagues write in Expressen. The Inheritance Fund has had a well-meaning purpose, but according to SD, it has outlived its usefulness. The party refers, among other things, to the latest review by the Swedish National Audit Office, which concluded that the authority neither “functions purposefully nor effectively” and should therefore be phased out. SD
https://omni.se/a/ny7MRB
Convinced that there are more places with money being used carelessly if one just looks a little 😀
Shut down the crap and use the money for something better.
It has been brought up now and then that heirs are challenging the will because they believe it is unclear.
I will clearly declare that not a penny shall go to AAF but to a cause I consider worthy of it.
However, the majority of the money ends up in sensible projects, it is the administration that is lacking and costs too much.
Many projects seem to be about supporting young people (building sports facilities, etc.) and people with disabilities (with adaptations) etc.
Although society should be able to solve it anyway.
It would be easiest if the money went directly into the state treasury so that unnecessary administrative costs are avoided and the money can be spent on defense or wherever it fits best.
A lot of money goes to political organizations, welfare entrepreneurs, benefit scammers, and organizations that work against our open, democratic society where women have the same rights as men. But sometimes they hit the mark, just like a blind hen.
Now I actually think you are exaggerating.
Here are all the projects.
https://www.arvsfonden.se/projekt/alla-projekt
A quick Google search will find examples of what I mentioned, note that it was SVT that conducted the investigation that led to the police report, how much goes unnoticed or receives silent acceptance from the Fund to avoid controversy 🤔
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/skane/efter-avslojandet-kfum-ledarna-polisanmals-av-allmanna-arvsfonden
What can be said is that the Inheritance Fund does not scrutinize the projects sufficiently, but the blame still lies with the associations that cheat. Are there any proofs that they are actually colluding with each other? Have there been grants given where relatives within the Inheritance Fund have had relatives involved?
Although that wasn’t really what I meant. I thought you were exaggerating when you paint the picture that the majority of the projects go towards the wrong things and only a few are justified.
Go through the first 100 projects on the list yourself and point out which ones you don’t think contribute anything good at all?
I found one that seems to be politically oriented:
“Sports against extremism”
“The project aims to develop preventive measures to counteract right-wing extremist recruitment and influence, and to build collaborative structures that can strengthen the associations’ resilience against extremism.”
Anyway, you can compare this with all the golf clubs that cheat. Those who ensure that a lot of young people who actually don’t play golf, or have only been to the ranch during an outdoor day, sign up with the association so that they can then receive grants. Is it the grants that are the culprit or the golf club?
The same goes for all study associations or similar where the control is also quite low on how many are actually participating in study circles (although it has of course become stricter nowadays as everyone must provide personal identification numbers, etc., which allows for random checks to be conducted).
Unfortunately, cheating occurs everywhere in all sorts of contexts, but that doesn’t mean that everything must be shut down because of it. One must stop being naive and at least attempt to carry out checks.
Regarding AA, I can agree that maybe it’s not the way young people and others should receive their grants as it incurs unnecessary costs, so in essence, we might agree. 😀
Completely irrelevant if it leads to good projects when behaving like pigs towards honest people.
Do as in the donation registry, let people decide for themselves before it’s too late where the money should go.
Ohh, are we going to streamline the state? Be careful so that not everyone attacks you in the same way as DOGE. Waste is beneficial.
*The post may contain traces of irony
😀
“Russian Envoy Seeks Cooperation With U.S. at Landmark Washington Talks”
“Thursday he had discussed potential cooperation with the United States in the Arctic and on rare earth metals but acknowledged that “disagreements” remain.”
The only country that has managed to stay away from everything 🤣🤣
USA + Russia = True! 😂
The Russians had Putin, now they get Trump as a bonus 😂
“What’s the Thinking Behind Putin’s Maneuvering Around Trump?
The Kremlin is ready to throw Trump a few insignificant or even fictitious bones to prevent fundamental disagreements over Ukraine from disrupting the trend toward the normalization of bilateral relations.”
CV90 vs. Bradley!
In Ukrainian, but for those who do not know the language, it works somewhat to choose automatic translation to English.
(Yes, I stole the link from LW.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdCKqFtzQ3s
“ISW: Ryssland avancerar nära Pokrovsk mot den strategiska Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka-motorvägen Ryska styrkor försöker skära av den kritiska T-0504-motorvägen nordost om Pokrovsk samtidigt som de kringgår staden från två riktningar”
The USA is soon going to roll out targeted tariffs against various sectors/products – so this bombshell was just step one.
Then they sail the fleet towards Panama to teach the Chinese a lesson.
Trump and Vance were out yesterday mocking China and its leaders, and Hegseth has an even higher pitch.
104% tariffs started applying today/tonight, and then China’s retaliatory tariffs today, April 10.
Then there’s China’s countermove that hasn’t come yet.
Someone has also started selling American government bonds, so it shows in the curve.
Jp just that Trump is going to double the Pentagon’s budget
McDonalds-Ghandi is starting to become warlike
Is the dollar crash factored into the increase? Asking for a contact on Signal.
haha, yes…
Jokes aside, it’s not fun to have a salary in dollars 😭
“China is increasing tariffs on American goods from 34 to 84 percent. This is reported by international media.”
https://omni.se/kina-ska-infora-ytterligare-tullar-pa-84-procent-pa-amerikanska-varor/a/8qkXd2
From 10 to 104% in just over a week, wondering how it will look at the end of next week?
February 1: Trump imposes tariffs on China at 10 percent, which will take effect on February 4.
February 4: China responds with 15 percent tariffs on selected goods.
March 3: Trump increases tariffs on China by an additional 10 percent to a total of 20 percent. China announces that they will respond.
March 4: China responds with 15 percent tariffs on a range of goods.
April 2: Trump raises tariffs on China by an additional 34 percent, setting a tariff level of 54 percent.
April 4: China retaliates by increasing tariffs by 34 percent on all goods from the USA starting from April 10.
April 7: Trump threatens to impose additional 50 percent tariffs on Chinese goods from April 9, which would result in a tariff level of 104 percent.
April 9: USA’s tariffs at 104 percent against China are implemented.
April 9: China responds by raising tariffs by 50 percent to a total of 84 percent starting from April 10.
And the S&P 500 was down 20% since February yesterday. This morning, it’s down about -1.5% more.
The prices of sea freight must plummet, pulling away even lower oil prices.
Who dares to buy a container of Chinese or American goods when the cost can multiply during transport.
If this does not lead to escalation, I will close the account.
Someone is welcome to explain how doubling the PE tag budget fits into Trump’s desire for fair trade deals for the USA.
Is he going to take the goods by force 🤣
Maybe it’s a way to compensate for the domestic arms industry that will lose large amounts of orders due to the tariffs and has surely complained loudly about it?
It also doesn’t align well with trying to reduce the state budget.
I agree, it is a bit worrying of course.
He does not want fair deals but to kill world trade. Upgrading for sure, he will definitely reduce the ongoing costs of defense but that is not incompatible with upgrading if at the same time he invests in large expensive unmanned projects.
Yes, open conflict in Asia could very well result from this. But I believe it is always Congress that has to approve wars. So I guess we’ll see.
Sweden votes yes to the EU’s major tariff package against the USA
Over 1,500 American goods will be subject to European counter-tariffs – and Sweden votes yes to the package in today’s vote.
– Partly because we have managed to remove several input goods that are important for the Swedish industry and Swedish jobs.
✊🏻
“Filmmaterial från den 225:e separatbrigaden för stormtrupper som bryter igenom Belgorods gräns. ‘Efter vår operation i Kursk lärde sig ryssarna sin läxa’ – de förstärkte alla gränser för att förhindra en annan genombrottsattack. I Belgorodregionen spenderade de över 10 miljarder rubel på ‘moderna befästningar’.”
“At night, drones first attacked the Russian military airfield 🇷🇺Orenburg-2, which is located more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This was reported by local authorities.”
I have issues with links because the work computer blocks everything fun, and sitting with the phone to email the pictures (because everyone complains about Twitter links) that you then paste in takes surprisingly much time.
So please check out my Bluesky where I post information when it appears, which I then write about, preferably do not ask for links here.
Anyway – the steps Trump and the USA are taking are not at all about getting good trade deals.
-insult the world and especially China.
-make unreasonable demands, and then when some countries still smilingly say they look forward to cooperation on those terms, then you tell them to go to hell because they are bat-eaters or subhumans. There is a strong undertone of colonial racism in the current US rhetoric.
-start ensuring domestic access to raw materials.
-double the Pentagon’s budget.
-send the fleet to Panama.
-build up for an attack on Iran.
Check out my Bluesky to see how the USA went from being the largest trading partner in the world to China taking over almost everything.
The USA has a chance to try to break China’s back, and they will take it now – it is very clear.
As soon as China responds proportionally, Trump will go completely crazy, and at some point, the first shot will be fired. Does Panama have all the chances for that?
If he lets China arm for another 5-10 years, the opportunity will be gone.
Since the EU wants to approach China, it is in Trump’s and the USA’s interest to keep us in check. The nightmare for the USA is if the EU and China completely bypass the USA and take over.
The whole cooperation with Russia is therefore highly selfish and an attempt for the USA to wrestle back to the top, not necessarily by being the best but by crashing all the others.
We have written about this before, but now it’s happening.
I wrote yesterday that Zelensky should have kept quiet about the Chinese soldiers on Bluesky and got some complaints for it.
What do you think Trump did immediately – he blew it up big.
He is now just looking for an excuse to escalate.
Unfortunately, you will get more of this in the future for the simple reason that the whole situation no longer depends on Ukraine going up or down but we have now moved beyond what Russia failed at.
The USA sees China and the EU as a bigger threat than Russia, and that is why they have allied with Russia – your enemy’s enemy.
The USA is just like the bank, not your friend, as someone usually says.
Now I haven’t heard it directly but on a podcast / the latest Financial Sense Big Picture that comes out on Fridays.
Anyway: on the podcast, Black Water’s former CEO, Eric Prince, was mentioned. He has come out and warned that, for example, China’s capacity to build ships is greater than the next 4 combined, in principle the USA is not self-sufficient in critical memory cards for the military, the USA does not have sufficient production capacity generally within the military.
I also read now that Prince, when the Israel-Hamas war started in 2023, suggested that Israel should drill tunnels from the sea and consequently flood / render the tunnels unusable. Additionally, Hamas would be forced to expose hostages above ground. At a lower level, it was seen as interesting but at a higher level, the proposal did not gain traction.
Why not just paste the links? You can skip images and text excerpts if you want to save time.
If you don’t know how to copy links, we can probably help you? 😉
I don’t think anyone will blame you for Twitter links either if they’re from accounts that don’t exist on Bluesky.
If you only knew the amount of complaints one gets on a Twitter link…
Bluesky isn’t yet at the level where you get all the information, and if you try to find something interesting on a Bluesky account on Twitter, you’ll spend half an hour.
So go ahead with the Twitter links and let the complainers complain, right?
Yes, do it.
May need to reconsider if the criticism becomes too brutal. The reader can choose for themselves whether they want to click on the link.
I believe that the outcome could be an open conflict with China, unfortunately, but I don’t think that this is a grandiose plan that we see unfolding. If Trump primarily wanted to crush China, he wouldn’t reasonably implement a policy that severs ties with virtually everyone else and then repeat the catastrophe of 1930, causing great harm to the already shaky American economy. And try to ally with the plantation economy of Russia.
Wysiwyg unfortunately. T believes that he is doing something good now and maga is carrying out a revolution and attacking everyone at the same time because they are extremists. Russia is seen by maga as kindred spirits in some respects, so it’s not surprising that they have found each other at least in words. They unite in their disgust for “liberals,” the EU, etc.
Attacking all enemies simultaneously on all fronts is typical of extremists who follow a conviction. And what happens next has played out countless times in history. The revolution, now spiced with mercantilism, devours its children.
The USA might be in a good position for a new confederate states before long. Dissatisfaction with the federal government seems to be smoldering here and there?
It was the Muscovite Empire that was supposed to implode 😰…
The falling oil prices might also contribute to that.
Did you see that IT has posted a link page and a donation page?
It was elegant!
I also usually read The Lowdown, so it’s welcome among the links.
http://www.thelowdownblog.com/
Thank you! 👍
Feel free to leave a comment about it on the links page if you have the energy!
I thought that now and then I will check what suggestions have come in and add them, but before that, others will be able to see your comment and may find the link that way.
Tomorrow, this page will already be forgotten!
Still, you have to admit that it’s quite an epic journey from filet mignon in Kuwait to geopolitical brinkmanship in Kaliningrad. But yes, it’s hard not to feel worried when the world economy starts to resemble a poorly balanced game of dominos.
I see the logic in what you’re saying, but it also assumes that the USA can truly handle the consequences of this game. What if China just lets time pass and builds stronger partnerships with the Global South, while the USA burns all bridges?
I actually think you’re giving Trump a little too much credit here, as if there was a long-term strategy behind all of this. There probably isn’t. It’s just his crazy narcissism in its purest form. “Everybody is kissing my ass” is the goal in itself, not a method to achieve something greater.
That’s where the chaos comes from, not because there’s a 5D chess plan, but because it’s all about his ego and mood of the day. The dangerous part is that the world reacts as if it were a rational strategy, and then everyone else gets locked into counterproductive moves.
I don’t even think he wants to crash the system intentionally, he’s just a system crash in himself. The big threat is that the rest of us, especially in the EU, still try to confront this as if there was a plan behind it.
You’ve been right about Puttefnask being a player of caliber compared to the Trump clown. Your brain finds things amidst all his craziness! I give you more credit for finding structure in this madness he’s engaging in!
Threats, lies, games, shooting from the hip, and playing allan is what’s going on, all in one big mess. Then there may be those who influence the game with their own clever ideas, and they are the ones who shine through, but it’s just plain crazy all around. A giant mess…
We need a psychologist for this!
👍 But it is Trump and his closest associates who primarily need a psychologist (or several)!
Haha, did you think I meant Jonas? Not at all…haha
Yes, I agree. However, for some of the Trump supporters, I wonder if a skilled dog trainer wouldn’t work better than a regular psychologist.
Great idea!!! Maybe Cesar Millan could fix that MAGA crowd?
😂👍🏻
😂 Right now, it’s Trump’s closest associates who are acting like Pavlov’s dogs no matter what master Trump comes up with, so they are probably already well-trained, they could use a new trainer!
OT but fun!
The country of Gabon has only one train line. On that line, the rails broke over 650 times in a year according to the latest measurement in 2023, reported by AFP. Despite that, the train is often the best way to get around. Gabon is covered by 90 percent rainforest and lacks roads. There are no flight routes. “We have to take the train. It’s not a choice,” says Aaron Houchi, who is on his way to a funeral. The deceased relative is taking the same train, but traveling in a different car.
https://omni.se/a/6375V0
There, they do not mix the dead and the living in the same compartment.
What darkness!
Martin Ljung knew already in 1960 how nice it is with your own compartment (or “kuppe” in Swedish)!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkCiZqNrefI
I say then. Elon Musk is completely boundless. Now he is calling Trump’s trade policy adviser Peter Navarro an “idiot” or in English “moron”. Here we are far from all refined liberal technocratic culture. I hope Musk finds his way out. I think he is a breath of fresh air. Who will stage the play “Donald Trump’s first 20 days” set in the Oval Office? Featuring Donald Trump, JD Vance, Peter Hegseth, and Elon Musk, and a sharp-tongued Sara Wiles.
😂 Can become a success!
Of course, there is a risk that when all of this is over, no one wants to be reminded of the misery!
Haha
Leavitt said that it’s well and good with the most transparent administration in history.
1. Is it really good?
2. Has everyone been given Trump words and expressions that must be thrown into every other sentence?
Ähhh what the heck, don’t know how to create a link 🔗
Jake Broe’s latest post shows how many countries are involved in a Boeing aircraft.
Googled below where a picture with the different parts was color-coded and where they come from, it will be expensive to build with the tariffs… business genius Trump shines.
Boeing’s global supply chain
Maybe a teenager or someone who doesn’t read teletext as a source of information can help with creating a link.
When you are on the movie on YouTube, select the address that appears in the address bar in the web browser.
Once you have selected the address, right-click with the mouse and choose copy.
Click into the comment box and right-click and choose paste.
Or even faster with the keyboard:
CTRL + C to copy and CTRL + V to paste on PC
CMD + C and CMD + V on Mac.
If you are on mobile, it’s a bit more complicated, but there is usually a way to do it there as well. There is usually a menu in the upper right corner (three dots on Android). Then you click on Share.. and there is often an option to copy the link. When you click into the comment field, the link usually appears above the keyboard, and if you click on it, you paste it in.
If you are using an iPhone, it depends a bit on the model, but there you can usually click on the address and choose to copy and then get the option to paste.
Here is the link to Jake’s latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWxdai2hzH4
Thank you, at 23:10 in the video, what I wrote about earlier will come up for those who don’t usually watch Jake.
It’s like with the Teslas. The components come from many different places to the assembly factory. Musk is on top of it and strongly critical of the tariffs. When tariffs were previously considered successful, these supply chains did not exist. New conditions now that Mr. T hasn’t thought about?
“”It’s very scary”. That’s how Kalle Moene, economics professor at the University of Oslo, reacts to China’s latest response in the trade war with the USA.
– Now we can see that China is willing to bear the cost of a full-scale conflict with the USA. I think they see an opportunity to increase their influence in Asia, he tells Dagens Næringsliv.”
https://omni.se/professor-kina-redo-ta-smallen-av-fullskalig-konflikt/a/QMAa5V
“The US economy is likely to enter a recession as a result of Donald Trump’s tariffs, says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon in an interview with Fox Business.
– Now, when you see drops of 2,000 points on the Dow Jones, then it starts to become self-fulfilling, he says.
He also says that he “hears a lot of recession talk” and that JP Morgan has already missed out on major global deals.”
Fight on Donald ✊🏻🤡!
We believe in you! 😂
“US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sharply criticizes China’s decision to impose additional tariffs in response to the American offensive. This is noted by Reuters.
– China’s escalation is a losing deal for them, he says according to the news agency.”
The text disappeared because I had to log in again…
On my bluesky you will find the following – “forced liquidation in bonds”, “30yr yield up 56bps”
“last time this bad 1982”.
I also posted a link that someone suspects that “someone” has started selling US government securities.
What happens, one may ask the economically knowledgeable in the thread who now have the opportunity to shine?
-interest rates up/down?
-which countries?
My theory is that the USA takes the first hit to collapse others, or is it the USA that collapses here?
The only thing I know about the bond market is that it’s a huge bubble and when it bursts, it’s going to be a bloodbath.
I think it means that interest rates are rising to borrow money?
So those who buy US government securities pay higher interest rates and then the interest rate on EXISTING government securities falls?
Good or bad for the USA?
Will this lead to higher bank interest rates?
“Someone has started to panic sell American government bonds. Yield on the 10-year is breaking trend and is up massively in the last two days. At the same time, the USD value is holding up decently. Hm. Higher yield – more expensive refinancing; stable USD/increasing – bad for US competitiveness. Are the Chinese on the move?”
https://x.com/Dvvmhm/status/1909853816817660189
One might suspect that, perhaps?
Someone else believed in my Bluesky that the purchase of government securities had gone to zero, or that it was a mix of both.
Forgot that the USA is also imposing a port fee on Chinese ships calling at US ports of 1.5 million USD.
I am starting to feel that Trump is a black swan 😀
Who in the thread is saying that the EU is sitting still in the boat?
The EU responds to US trade tariffs – effective from April 15th.
And so the trade war is in full swing…
https://www.di.se/live/eu-svarar-pa-trumps-tullar-infors-nasta-vecka/
It is likely that the stock markets will continue to decline – it seems like Shanghai and Hong Kong have gone up today though, which I find interesting.
So – what does the crash in bonds mean for the overall picture for us in the EU, USA, and China?
It is probably an important piece of the puzzle, I guess?
However, the EU has not imposed tariffs on everything but has selected goods and areas that we can replace.
“The EU proposal for tariffs on American goods that Sweden voted for today is “proportionate and well-balanced”.
Most of the goods covered are easy to replace for consumers and businesses, and the EU Commission has also removed several goods that Sweden wanted exceptions for – for example, the mineral kaolin, he continues.
“This is a response from a united union that wants more trade with the USA but is forced to introduce countermeasures.”
https://omni.se/dousa-dorren-star-oppen-till-forhandlingar-med-usa/a/qPdVE0
Do we think Trump is receptive to this argument?
Balanced to cost as much as possible for the USA without affecting the EU’s internal market or exports too much.
No, of course he sees it as an escalation, he will probably choose to double the already imposed tariffs.
I think it’s moving too fast here, and then one can guess what the financial markets, export companies, sales departments, and politicians think.
Every day brings news that overturns all planning.
In the end, widespread panic ensues from it all.
Yes, things are moving fast now!
The stock markets in the USA seem to be going up, but they did that yesterday too before falling back into the negative.
This is what DI says – it really looks like the USA is about to crash here.
But I remember 2008 when the USA managed to “quantity ease” their way out of it and Europe crashed instead.
Isn’t there a risk that this kind of thing will also spread globally?
“Long US market interest rates have turned sharply upwards after the Trump administration’s tariff shock last week.
If this continues, support purchases by the US Federal Reserve central bank will be needed to avoid a crisis, warns the major bank Deutsche Bank.”
“The current tariff levels that the USA has announced against the outside world should be seen as a ceiling for countries that do not retaliate, says Finance Minister Scott Bessent at a summit in Washington. According to him, China is the only country that has retaliated so far. A Europe that allies with China against the USA would be shooting itself in the foot, he argues. Regarding the stock market chaos, he says, ‘Wall Street has become richer than ever before. But over the next four years, Trump’s agenda is focused on ordinary people.'”
“EU member states say yes to introducing retaliatory tariffs against the USA, according to AFP citing diplomats.
According to leaked information, the new tariffs cover around 1,600 products. The majority of the tariffs are at 25 percent and are a response to the steel and aluminum tariffs announced by the USA in early March.”
https://omni.se/eu-ger-gront-ljus-for-att-infora-svarstullar-mot-usa/a/0VxggJ
We should probably also cover a bit of Ukraine among all the customs! 💥
“Ukrainian Drones Destroy $100 Million TU-22M3 Supersonic Bomber Right After Landing”
https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-drones-destroy-100-million-tu-22m3-supersonic-bomber-right-after-landing-7453
So, it’s the third time in a short period, isn’t it 😶
Yes, about one week. Endangered species.
When Trump feels compelled to recommend people to buy stocks, it’s probably time to sell everything!
“Donald Trump thinks it’s an excellent time to buy stocks and asserts on his own platform Truth Social that everything will work out, shortly after the stock market opened on Wednesday.
“Take it easy! Everything will work out. The USA will become bigger and better than ever,” writes the president.”
https://omni.se/trump-ser-koplage-pa-borsen-chilla-allt-kommer-losa-sig/a/25eb0G
haha, yes, then it’s really a crisis situation when the president urges people to buy stocks – then some big elephants must be saved.
No evil without some good (yes, I am a heavy coffee consumer)!
“The price of coffee has fallen sharply after an increase earlier in the year. In the commodity market in London, the futures price of robusta coffee has fallen significantly in recent days and is now at the lowest level since early December.
The major producer Vietnam is threatened by 46% tariffs from the USA, which the market fears could lead to lower demand.”
Oh, that was unexpected. Here in Sweden, ICA retailers have issued warnings about upcoming price increases and urged customers to stock up. Are robust beans what Gevalia is made of?
I bought a package of Lindvalls standard coffee at Willys today. It cost 79 SEK. There is something wrong.
I think it’s Arabica, we Swedes seem to prefer it.
They take the opportunity to raise prices just because they can.
Then it’s probably about the terms there, and then it can be the price for coffee 1-3 months in the future and not the coffee being sold in stores now.
Yes, one can wonder about coffee. The Swedish coffee, which is weak and seems to contain pine bark. I have had local coffee in northern Thailand and it was so strong that it started tingling in my scalp. The coffee – the Thai ground coffee – was also very expensive in stores in Thailand.
Personally, I only drink the best – Nescafe Lyx instant coffee 🧐
Yes, you have plenty of dollars and can treat yourself! 😄
No no….it’s too bitter. You have shopped too much in international convenience stores.
I was being ironic, I’m suffering 😀
Me too! Or I’m not suffering, but I was being ironic!
Support package despite “unprecedented prosperity”?
They clearly have no idea at all how the tariffs will affect the domestic market.
“There is a concern that American farmers will be caught in the crossfire of the trade war between the USA and China, and therefore the White House is considering launching a support package for the agricultural sector.
– The goal is that we shouldn’t have to do it, but that the transition of the economy will lead to an unprecedented prosperity for all Americans, especially for farmers.”
Oh my god, what a mess that is 🤣
If McDonald’s Gandhi had only focused on the USA, I would have laughed all the way to work every day, but now there’s a bit of discomfort in the stomach instead when you see what’s economically looming.
Looks like there will be fewer clashes this day than in a long time. The 16-report counts a total of 54 clashes. And only 12 in Pokrovsk. What’s happening there. Yesterday’s 16-report counted a total of 94 clashes. And then the daily total was decreasing (159). Of course, things may happen tonight and overnight. We’ll see what the morning report shows for the entire day, in Pokrovsk and overall.
We’ll see what happens and if it will be reflected in the loss report tomorrow.
Spanien skiter i Trump.
“Spain has rejected a US warning that closer ties with Beijing would be “cutting your own throat.” Agriculture Minister Luis Planas says Spain aims to expand “excellent” trade relations with China.”
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lmff67jgr22u
Not even Trump’s own confused logic applies to Australia.
They have no tariffs against the USA and buy more than they export, yet they still got tariffs.
“Australia has no tariffs on the United States.
The United States has a trade surplus with Australia.”
Neither of these facts stopped Trump from slapping a 10% tariff on them anyway.”
The US stock market is now up 0.7%. Strange things are happening…
If one believes in my theory that the USA will take the first hit and then manage to shift the risk to others, it is not strange at all.
I saw Europe plunge deeply.
Trump promised that it’s a buyer’s market and that everything will work out and be so good. Well, you have to believe in him, as president he can’t lie, right! 😄
You are ironic but you know as little as I do why. Now it’s up 1% in the USA. Not a single comment in the Swedish press. But all journalists have of course gone home from their jobs.
Well, I was of course mostly being ironic, but I also think that some actually listen to Trump and take him at his word. He had posted it on his own platform and those who hang out there probably trust him.
The stock market surged the day before yesterday on the rumor of a 90-day pause, then it dropped back down when it was denied. I think everyone is nervous, no one knows which way it will go, and many therefore act on the slightest indication one way or the other. Although my next post was probably the cause today!
He gives in, except towards China where he hits even harder!
“Trump pauses the trade tariffs for 90 days, he writes on Truth Social.
The pause takes effect immediately. However, China is not included, he raises the tariffs against them to 125 percent.”
https://omni.se/trump-annonserar-tullpaus/a/eMoeJQ
Did the EU manage to introduce tariffs or not?
I guess we did 😀
No, ours was supposed to start on the 15th but we managed to communicate it out at least, might have helped!
Maybe it was Spain? They ignored the warning to cooperate with China.
USA is now up 7-8% thanks to the 90-day tariff truce.
China opened but they are closed now.
EU in turmoil.
We’ll see tomorrow…
It was probably the sale of US treasury bonds that did this. Trump just blinked.
That might be the case.
So now, when the bond market is in a state of flux and the fuse is lit.
What do you think it would do to the risk appetite among us in the EU if Russia made its limited incursion into the natural area in Southeast Estonia?
Would capital start moving back to the USA?
Personally, I don’t believe it would happen on any larger scale. UNLESS something else happens at the same time, like China fully siding with Russia, or the US directly saying they won’t help at all, or if Russia actually uses tactical nuclear weapons against Estonia.
Russia is weakened and does not pose a huge threat to the EU as a whole, even though Estonia would of course have a tough time before we could help.
But what do I know, I thought the EU would pour in more help to Ukraine once the initial shock had subsided by summer/autumn 2022 and they had started delivering, but it ended up being only half-hearted and it took time before they even dared to send tanks.
Hey – you have seen everything collapse based on some statements from Trump.
And do you not think that an armed conflict between the EU and Russia would leave a mark on anything?
Russia is a lesser threat to the world economy than Trump. 😂
Then I wrote “to some greater extent” (or was thinking of writing it, slipped in an extra n).
Since the EU managed to vote on it, I guess we introduced tariffs against the USA and end up in the same boat as China?
I wonder if Trump waited until we finished voting?
China has already introduced tariffs, and so has Canada, so all the biggest trading partners except Mexico.
Now remains to be seen if the rest of the world stands in solidarity with the EU and China or if they “negotiate” with Trump, whatever that practically means?
According to Trump, at least 90 countries (out of a total of 90) have tried to contact him personally and butter him up.
I’m not smart enough to see who will come out as the loser in this – redirecting trade is not the easiest and takes its time, but the world is probably starting to accept that the USA won’t back down against China at least?
India and Vietnam are toasting in very expensive champagne right now.
Then one might as well keep an eye on two things –
– which ones will ultimately be left with the tariffs when Trump has made up his mind.
– how the stock markets will perform next week in the countries affected by the tariffs as well as the USA.
My suspicion is still that he is trying to shift the risk to others 😀
The pharmacies will probably run out of omeprazole soon.
Lucky I’m not day trading, otherwise I would have had to bribe the doctor to prescribe quadruple doses of tranquilizers! 😂
So far, all tariffs are at 10%, even Australia. The USA exports more to Australia than Australia does to the USA.
I have not used the term “shit circus” before, but now I think it fits well. Does anyone dare to do any business at all with anyone when it fluctuates from day to day?
Guess why I’m starting to get nervous about my project – they haven’t pressed the start button yet 😶
Sounds a bit difficult, and with great uncertainty, perhaps it’s hard to find other options?
Absolutely, when it freezes together, you can’t find anything else.
Yes worse than ever now. Tough talk from Trump about tariffs and panic everywhere but now a 90-day respite on the tariffs. Yes, it’s a circus.
“At least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting on Russia’s side against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence information disclosed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
– Russia is recruiting Chinese through social media and Chinese officials are aware of this, he says according to Reuters.”
Ukraina lyckades återföra 6 barn från ockuperade områden. 🙏 En 16-årig pojke vars far dog efter att ha blivit brutalt torterad av ryssar. Två systrar var hotade att tas från sin familj. En flicka blev trakasserad av ryska soldater som bröt sig in i huset.
Good thing someone is reporting on Ukraine at least 😅
205 are also holding the fort.
Have you noticed that all the drone attacks have completely disappeared?
UA still has drones and targets, in any case, any theories?
Must be included in an agreement. Show their good will in peace negotiations? Will probably cease.
That is also my exact thought.
Was just about to write that. Would probably be a cease-fire on energy infrastructure. Ukraine may want to show that they are holding it, even though Russia ignores it.
They are probably gearing up, and soon there will be a statement that since Russia unilaterally broke the agreement, they are now doing the same.
It may also be that they have realized that they also need to match Russia’s military strength in order to succeed in causing enough damage, so they are saving up for fewer but larger attacks.
In this post, there is a dump from Truth social and Trump, apparently it will be 10% against everyone and thus no total pause, yes except for 125% against China due to “lack of respect” (he should say who started).
“A few hours after the European Union increased the tariffs on US goods, Trump retracts and decreases tariffs on most of the world.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lmfl537tw22l
It might be a good idea to wait a day or two until he has thought this through calmly and clarifies again.
What a total mess this is 😶
Yes, and there might be a denial coming again already tonight just like last Monday, there were rumors about 90 days back then as well that made the stock markets soar until the White House denied it!
There are several hours left in the American day and anything can happen! 😂
They forgot to say thank you when they received an 84% tariff.
“Ukrainian MiG-29s continue to strike across all fronts, taking out Russian positions in Bryansk with AASM HAMMER bombs.”
China has escalated it?
They have only responded to the US with exactly what they have escalated it with and not even that. They left out the first 20 percent and thus settled for 84% when the US reached 104%.
China has been restrained in comparison.
“The countries that did not retaliate with tariffs are now being rewarded. That’s according to Finance Minister Scott Bessent after Donald Trump announced that US reciprocal tariffs will be paused for 90 days against all countries except China.
– I don’t want to call it a trade war – but China has escalated it, he says in a live interview.”
The question is how long China will be restrained, unfortunately.
It would be funny if they get tired now and hit us with 250% tariffs.
EU has not yet clarified whether they are exempt from customs duties or not 😶
They should have listened to Lynx
Do you know what Trump is going to do – in a few days, he will start demanding that those who want to trade with the USA cannot do so with China and hope that everyone chooses him.
The EU has previously intervened and imposed tariffs on certain products, including within the automotive industry (or was it within bicycles and LEVs – light electric vehicles). As protection for domestic industry.
The fact that Trump has targeted China but has taken broad actions may have to do with not wanting to single out China but at the same time expecting a reaction under these circumstances, which they got with the countermeasures, where China stood out, and then they struck hard, while at the same time now turning their guns on other countries. In this way, isolating China from sympathetic actions.
Perhaps China suspected that they were the main target?
Does this include Russia, which imports Chinese cars (and golf carts)?
Yes, if the USA had imposed tariffs only on China, not only would the counter-tariffs have garnered greater sympathy from the international community, but they would also have prompted the world to start trading more with China. You had already predicted, even before the broad tariff shock, that the EU would approach China and vice versa. Maybe Trump read your blog? Because now the actual effect is that China stands isolated and no country comes to China’s aid. The EU’s approach to China, as you pointed out, has been proven wrong.
What if one had gone all-in on the stock market in the USA based on your recommendation above MXT instead of just laughing 😶
Have you thought about the other – the USA communicated early on that the best course of action would be not to respond with countermeasures. And then he goes for the 90-day break but hits those who made countermeasures.
Quite peculiar, but he does what he says at least?
It’s not so strange that he leaves the tariffs in place for the countries that have already responded with tariffs, is it?
Or did you mean something else?
😂 I wonder if he had already made up his mind then?
I wonder how many he tipped off before that, if so.
Maybe that’s what he’s realized now, that he can easily manipulate the stock markets, and that’s why the rates are fluctuating and he’s now aiming to become wealthier that way?
Trump is right, many will become rich and well-fed… if they stay close to him and get information about what he just came up with to change, American roulette deluxe.
Who knows, not you….
Maybe it’s just that Mr. Donald wants to take power over the whole world?? Strike wildly in all directions and see where it is weakest….
Just a tired thought on this evening.
President Zelenskyy 🇺🇦, April 9, evening video.
There was a military cabinet: detailed reports by Syrsky, Hnatov, and Drapaty. All directions, all parts of the front. Our positions, the necessary supplies, and manning. The maximum possible to stabilize the situation, for our active actions and for our active diplomacy.
Today we also discussed with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine the preparations for Ramstein, which is scheduled for Friday.
The number one priority is air defense, especially missile defense and ballistic missile defense. Ukraine needs at least ten systems that are sufficiently effective against Russian ballistic missiles – the Patriots are the best at this.
We have spoken repeatedly with the American side, with everyone in Europe who can help. We are counting on a solution.
This day alone, there have already been several air alerts across the country due to the threat of ballistic missiles. In some parts of our country, people are actually living under the threat of such strikes all the time. And right now, the world is short of political solutions to protect life, not the systems themselves. There are systems in the world. Even “patriots” are enough to guarantee protection from Russian terror once and for all. But this is a decision of politicians, a decision of partners.