If one were to guess, the only way for Russia to get through this is to attack from the east and reach the Dnieper, and that Kiev is not attacked.
Then they achieve the goal of having a natural border to the west and can then de-escalate and, with the help of China, claim peace in our time.
If they go after Kiev, there is a greater risk of failure, and imagine if Poland does what the rest of the world should do and sends down a couple of brigades to Ukraine, it would strike the Russians’ flank. Russia should not have the capacity to attack Poland.
My bet is therefore that they advance to the Dnieper and stop.
I also put a coin on the idea that China has some scheme going on here because I don’t see Russia being willing to take the hit that is coming JUST for eastern Ukraine without there being an added value that we do not yet know about.
Belarus is a big bonus and is probably already incorporated into Russia now.
11:58
If one were to guess, the only way for Russia to get through this is to attack from the east and reach the Dnieper, and that Kiev is not attacked.
Then they achieve the goal of having a natural border to the west and can then de-escalate and, with the help of China, claim peace in our time.
If they go after Kiev, there is a greater risk of failure, and imagine if Poland does what the rest of the world should do and sends down a couple of brigades to Ukraine, it would strike the Russians’ flank. Russia should not have the capacity to attack Poland.
My bet is therefore that they advance to the Dnieper and stop.
I also put a coin on the idea that China has some scheme going on here because I don’t see Russia being willing to take the hit that is coming JUST for eastern Ukraine without there being an added value that we do not yet know about.
Belarus is a big bonus and is probably already incorporated into Russia now.