09:23
Map below, Julian is clear that this is not conquered territory but where the Russians are.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1498780614945873930/photo/1
I am of the opinion that Russia does not have the offensive capacity to succeed in taking all of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro, which I guessed would be the “second best” outcome for Putin.
What will probably happen is that Russia tries to freeze the front east of the Dnipro, maybe manages to advance up to Dnipro if they are lucky.
After that, their logistics are in absolute chaos there as well when Ukraine is done with the northern convoy and can start drone-exterminating in the south.
Now 80,000 Ukrainians have returned to fight and they have probably mobilized everyone willing to fight and war materiel has flowed into the country. First out were the 70 aircraft. Wait for T80 and BMP4 deliveries from Eastern Europe if…1.2.3
Ukraine can and will go on the offensive and this will end with all Ukrainian territory being liberated including Donbass and Belarus getting its palace coup.
09:30
If now 1000 vehicles were knocked out, it could be that Ukraine has gotten its SU-25 going that they received from Europe?
The whole western Ukraine is intact and they have air bases and maintenance intact so it should just be a matter of starting up.
The road is where it is and it is enough to pass at low altitude with the cannons firing to knock out a few kilometers of vehicles.
09:43
09:18 – regarding the aircraft.
Ukraine seems to be handling this perfectly well entirely on its own.
If Russia can lose completely on its own against Ukraine without too much help from the West, there is nothing Putin can blame.
Otherwise it will be “the West attacked” and the stab-in-the-back legend is born.
10:02
If Russia now mobilized 200,000 soldiers in maneuver units for this war which has soon lost all combat value, how many do they really have left?
I read 320,000 men in the army but do not know enough.
There are enough combat vehicles and tanks in storage for them to be equipped again but one must guess that the materiel that worked best was deployed in this war?
Now China is really the buddy who betrays so is there a risk that China can move into Siberia after this?
If I were China I would keep a low profile for a good while ahead but crazier things have happened.
12:23
I find it hard to accept this but there is enough satellite coverage for us to know that the convoy is standing still.
If one may guess they run the engines all the time for heat and to charge their phones and have now run out of fuel.
Add to that running out of food and if they make fires they will die.
They have difficulty getting fuel forward because partly the convoy blocks itself and then the tankers are a prioritized target for Ukraine and it is likely a real beehive around that convoy.
Winter War anyone?
What is a bit in the background is the convoy from Chernihiv and the one towards Kharkiv (on Russian territory) as well as the offensive units down south with long logistics.
One can guess that Ukraine tries to divert the threat to Kiev first but as soon as there is capacity they will strike in all directions and there are enough units behind enemy lines conducting guerrilla warfare and as long as they have target data they can strike soft targets as long as they have small caliber ammunition.
What will happen is that when the soldiers in the vehicles in the column outside Kiev have frozen for a couple of days and are hungry enough, they will leave the convoy with their gear and start walking north.
The war is, as said, over with this even if it will take a while for the staff to understand it and they will probably still make territorial gains east of the Dnipro and Mariupol will fall.
13:15
I was pessimistic on Sunday but now see no other outcome than the above.
The air force itself is not a weapon you win wars with and portable air defense comes in boatloads daily.
Combat value decreases every day they sit and freeze and morale is highly volatile and there are many reports that it is failing.
In the south it will be liveliest and maybe some air landings but it is notable that nothing is happening in Odessa so the marine infantry has not yet been deployed on a large scale there.
13:32
See the film below and think about what Ukrainian mothers have in the baby bottles for their little children,
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1498969360425177088?cxt=HHwWgMCylaCstM0pAAAA
This is Zaporizhzhia and one example of many right now where civilians block access roads and then simply stand in the way in hundreds.
I find it hard to believe that Russian conscripts can deliberately run over civilians.
13:46
The Russians are rolling through Vasylivka at good speed just south of Zaporizhzhia so that city is likely to be the next to become contested.
Regarding Mariupol I assume it is reached by naval artillery, it is about 1/3 the size of Kharkiv and they have brought forward TOS1 which is potent against fixed defensive installations.
They have pressure up on the eastern side while attacking from the west, from behind.
The city is probably prepared for this but it is flat farmland and no natural obstacles.
Added to that the city is probably a priority target right now since they are not making progress in Kiev and Kharkiv.
15:33
Here we have sensational news from Luhansk. Now it is naturally unconfirmed as usual but Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade has gone on the offensive and destroyed a Russian rifle brigade.
16:44
Directed at me and a bit late.
Absolutely not, that major media for a whole week have spread that Ukraine is about to fall, including our SVT, is somewhat incredible.
’
Where did they get that from? Because in this forum, from day one, we have thought that the invasion was sadly disorganized and would fail, and Cornu has constantly informed us about Russia’s lousy army (which I did not believe because I trusted all the established media instead).
Ukrainians also read international media, and if they say the country is doomed, it is demoralizing.
Translate this to Sweden and that SVT would write “the country will fall in two days”, “Stockholm will soon be taken” etc. endlessly.
It’s definitely not me who is doing Putin’s bidding here, I don’t understand how you got that angle 🙂
16:46
The answer was thus addressed to February.
Feeling that they are ideologically related to the left, yes.
What they have written, no, it has been written like that.
“Kiev will fall soon” they had for several days.
The Russians are damn not even on the outskirts of the city.
19:34
I think I have pieced together why Russian units have run out of fuel and food 🙂
On paper, they had full tanks, certainly one or a few 12-liter containers per battalion and enough food + ammunition.
A Russian who is craving a smoke and is starting to sober up probably sells off fuel and their rations while they have been waiting in Belarus and Russia.
When the march orders are given, each battalion on paper should have fuel and food for 10 days of combat or whatever it may be, but in reality, they cross the border with 40% in the tank and one or two rations, happily drunk and smoking the most expensive cigarette brand in Belarus.
When the staff realizes what has happened after some confusion, they start sending tankers after the operational units, but Ukraine is quick to take them out.
Fast forward a couple of days and the staff is in full panic, they now send everything south in the belief that if they just push, it will resolve itself and there it stopped, vehicles breaking down, vehicles running out of fuel, vehicles being sabotaged, vehicles being shot at, and the road is narrow so it becomes a total stop.
How they will sort out this mess probably keeps the staff awake but it likely will not work. Combat value is heading towards zero even before the units have been deployed in battle.
20:06
Unconfirmed as usual but the Russians are now fighting in Mariupol, videos are starting to come.
Looking at the map below, which as usual is not full control over the areas, the only card Russia has left to play is to try to take southern Ukraine up to the Dnieper and try to freeze the conflict. Move towards Dnipro from north and south, sort of, and try to reach the Dnieper with all the spearheads.
Western Ukraine is unthreatened.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1499083864651804672/photo/1
09:13
The war is over, writing it again, and now it is just up to the Russian staff to understand it.
According to Cornu above, about 1000 vehicles were knocked out during the night and this is not even in combat!!
The Russian army therefore cannot even organize a march to a UFA and probably has 20,000 – 30,000 soldiers in various types of vehicles stuck in a gigantic traffic jam with targets painted on them.
Ukraine has probably got its long-range reconnaissance going, I guess, and target data from the USA we have had before + commercial satellites.
They have allowed infiltration of special forces from the West which should number in the thousands in the country and the Ukrainian army is of high quality.
If one may guess, there is a swarm like a beehive around this convoy and this will end very humiliatingly for Russia.
Mariupol will be tragic, the so (by Russia) hated Ukrainian “Nazis” (i.e. the Russian designation for them) are inside the encirclement and apparently there are Chechens attacking + DPR and LPR rebels. These groups have little love for each other.
I guess Mariupol cannot be saved and will fall within a few days.
Kherson also seems to have fallen but that has low relevance since the Russians have made no progress with Odessa and Mykolaiv.
The southern front east of the Dnipro also does not seem to have seen much action.