10:41
If it is true that Russia attacked with a single echelon, that also means they have no defensive positions behind the attacking units except for a couple of battalions in reserve waiting to attack. The first echelon is probably still attacking units and some in reserve, I guess. Behind them sit the Rosgvardia and Omon waiting to ethnically cleanse some captured areas.
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When the combat value of the operational battalions approaches zero, and we are 1.5 weeks into this invasion, there is nothing that can stop a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The only defensive positions that exist are along the ceasefire line in Donbass.
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I think I see information that Ukraine, having pushed north from Kharkov, is well on its way to pushing all Russian units in the area back to the border. Official Ukrainian reports claim this, but there are fewer mobile phone videos and “proof.” It is said to be brigade-sized units that have been “neutralized.”
Liveuamap.com also shows a slight decrease in (red) area controlled by Russia.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500010210735398913
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So we have a situation where Russian combat value is approaching zero, they have no prepared defense, and reserves are at least 1-2 weeks away, if not more, before they can be deployed in combat. If Ukraine’s goal is to reclaim its territory, the time has come. The threshold will be very high for Russia if they have to start over from the border in a few weeks.
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The Kharkov front seems to be well on its way to being restored to the land borders; in Luhansk, they have pushed north of the city in the eastern arc and “neutralized” brigade-sized units, and in Kiev, there is information about large encirclements of the presumably stationary column. Then the swarm against the famous column remains unchanged in strength, so losses there must be enormous.
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Remaining are Donbass and the southern front, which still moves west and south of the Dnieper. West of the Dnieper is no threat to anything, and eventually Ukraine will cut the crossings over the Dnieper, leading either to capitulation or a bloody evacuation with ships being sunk.
To bring reinforcements from the south, it will be column 2.0 over Kerch and up through Crimea, which can be shot down with Bayraktar drones.
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If it can be cut that the Donbass rebels have met the southern offensive at Volnovakha, then it is not possible to reinforce the southern offensive from the east. Over time, the Russian units will want to retreat to Crimea over a few bridges, and it will be bloody.
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Remaining are Donbass and Crimea; if Ukraine manages to take back these areas within a couple of weeks, it would be desirable. In Donbass, perhaps the rebels have stretched themselves a bit, and it might be possible to break through them in a surprising counteroffensive?
Crimea, who knows, but we shall see 🙂
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If Ukraine does not take the initiative, Putin will get what he wants with a frozen conflict; within a couple of weeks, the reserves will arrive, and they can hold terrain that is not at all strategic, but it would give him an opening to propagate that the invasion has achieved its purpose, and maybe he will save face. I find it incredible that Russia manages to take eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper since they are now focusing on Mariupol and Odessa/Mikolayv. The cities became real flytraps and Russia’s own little Stalingrad.
10:54
Russia has attacked Soviet-style but with 200,000 men. If it had been a million, Ukraine would probably have lost by now, and they probably have armor in storage for more than that.
If these 200,000 men had attacked according to plan according to the staff’s vision + Belarus, they would probably have achieved at least eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper, an encirclement of Ukrainian units, and maybe forced Ukraine to peace. Now they have had maximum bad luck with everything, but the Olympic delay was probably the worst as combat value dropped, the mud disappeared, and the ground thawed.
Now the combat value of the operational units is zero, and Ukraine is going on the counteroffensive without Russian reserves having arrived. These reserves are third-rate with equipment from the 60s-70s.
Ukraine’s air force will be reinforced, of course Mig29 and SU25 have been flown in from all over Eastern Europe.
They have anti-tank and portable air defense in large quantities. Command and control is probably supported by the USA, and Western special forces probably make up the backbone of the international legion 🙂
The Russians have run out of quality ammunition and seem to have no real reserves, and elite units such as reconnaissance, Spetsnaz, VDV, marine infantry are quite exhausted and are not replaced in a snap. Helicopters will become scarce, and obviously also air defense at the rate they are losing it.
Ukraine wins 🙂
11:17
11:11 update and burning Mi-35.
I can’t emphasize enough here, but I thought they were armored to hell and at worst would fall to the ground if they were shot down.
Exploding into a fireball doesn’t seem very professional, can someone explain how that happens?
Have new generations of MANPADS targeted the fuel or is it the ammunition that explodes first?
13:22
The loss report does not include prisoners; they should have good control over those, any idea why?
If we have 10,000 dead, then total losses including wounded and prisoners are probably 50,000 – 60,000 with some reasonable ratio.
Now this seems more like a slaughter than a war, and I would not be surprised if total losses are 50% of the operational units excluding the elite forces, VDV, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, marine infantry.
13:32
Nicely summarized.
Then there is some kind of filter that does not reproduce the most optimistic Ukrainian reports, like; “the column is standing there so it must threaten Kiev and surely Ukraine could not have gone on the offensive with the convoy still heading towards Kiev, better to report balanced and that Kiev is threatened”?
I think the opposite – Russia is the aggressor and you ignore everything they say and then try to hype Ukraine as much as possible to help morale.
13:34
I believe that the flights that were supposed to come but where Poland announced that they would not go to Ukraine are there anyway.
I base this on the fact that the pilots went to EU countries and that the USA recently announced that Ukraine’s air force is largely intact 🙂
It’s enough to fly at tree height to an airbase in western Ukraine.
No one believes the pilots had to take the bus home again.
13:43
Now they are scraping the absolute bottom and sending what they have left in Syria to Ukraine. The Wagner group in Mali has also been flown to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500058977756983302?cxt=HHwWjMC59anso9EpAAAA
14:58
It may sound harsh but the best for the future is if Ukraine beats Russia completely on its own, there is nothing that can give rise to a stab-in-the-back legend.
The worst thing that can happen is if Russia gets to withdraw after Western intervention or manages to freeze the conflict with its leadership and Putin still in power. Then they can lick their wounds and go for round two in 10 years.
Next worst is if the Russians feel that the USA has toppled them into chaos to get rid of Putin.
If Ukraine humiliates Putin maximally I believe he will be deposed and it will be the beginning of a democratization process in Russia that the EU can support.
15:04
Much discussion about NATO for Sweden and Finland right now and I understand that it is a good opportunity.
I would have strengthened our defense as much as possible and not joined NATO as that plays into Putin’s hands.
My interpretation of this monumental failure is that Russia would have come a bit east of Gotland before they ended up on the seabed. After all, we have submarines, corvettes, anti-ship missiles with coastal rangers and a decent air force + Finland’s as well.
However, we should maintain our close cooperation with the West as we have had so far and don’t believe for a second that the USA will let Sweden fall since we are the northern flank. Even Gotland can be a threshold for Western intervention as it closes the Baltic Sea.
If Putin survives this and prepares for round two then it may very well be time for NATO but that is far too early.
15:21
Quite curious about the size of the reinforcements but I find it hard to believe they can mobilize more than 200,000 – 300,000 men here. They are poorly equipped, unmotivated and worse soldiers than those who have so far been heavily beaten in Ukraine.
Against that we have Ukraine’s army which is relatively intact + maybe 200,000 who have joined since the start.
They get good weapons from the West except for armor but the Russians have given them a couple of thousand of those 🙂
The air force has surely been replenished.
Western special forces in the international legion.
Drones as artillery.
If it turns out that Ukraine has to defeat these reserves as well I think it will end in exactly the same way.
Mobilization 3 must be months away and by then Ukraine will have had time to tune its defense so it doesn’t matter what the Russians throw at them. Consider here that Ukraine has given everything and that the whole country is working on a defense.
Economically it is ruined but the West will pay for the whole thing in the end.
21:01
And on SVT it is once again explained that Ukraine cannot withstand the Russian offensive, completely in line with the defeat doctrine that SVT broadcasts to Kremlin’s advantage. Let’s hope that Sweden is not drawn into the war, because then we know what we will hear from SVT …
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I got sh1t from someone in the thread when we had this discussion a few days ago. I think it is enormously worrying that this is allowed to happen.
Virtually all media wrote that Kiev would fall within a few days and now 1.5 weeks later Ukraine is beating brigades in its counteroffensive, the media does not write about it…
09:58
I think the UK has had balanced reporting with the stuck convoy and that the Russians cannot take Ukraine.
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A quick look at all the media today still gives the impression that Russia is winning. Family, work, and friends who want to discuss the war in Ukraine are at best surprised when I say that Russia has lost the war. Often they end the discussion, which suggests they think I am engaging in conspiratorial thinking.
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The next discussion they want to have is the threat from Russia, who will they attack next, is Sweden threatened, will they use nuclear bombs now, etc.
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The media at large has given a grossly distorted picture of the war, and if you scroll through the websites of most Swedish media this morning, it looks like it is only a matter of time before Ukraine gives up.
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Now, Ukrainian official sources have written about counteroffensives, so where does the media get their information? The first week was completely hopeless: “Kiev will fall within a few days,” 1.5 weeks later and the offensive against Kiev is halted.
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This says something about the power of the media, I think, and the responsibility they have. For Ukrainians who have read international media, it has looked like they are losing for 1.5 weeks when the truth is that they are slowly starting to chase the Russians into retreat.