07:50
You have seen this, a Ukrainian attack helicopter firing rockets at a Russian oil depot in all-Russian Belgorod 🙂
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1509769164994584580?cxt=HHwWiIC5xc7D4_MpAAAA
07:56
It has previously been asked whether it really was 13 BTG, but 700 vehicles and another column south of Kiev, how many we do not know, suggest that it was a larger force?
08:11
The areas where Ukraine has retaken cities are with company-sized infantry and assigned platoon IFVs or tanks, we see this around Kiev, Kherson and between Sumy – Chernihiv all the time in the videos.
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What we do not see is how things are going along the eastern front where Ukraine now has most of its mechanized and armored brigades, but we know that the Russians have started to empty the northern front to try to move units to Donbass and are now pulling units away from, for example, Georgia. They have done this by first pulling away those not in combat contact and leaving those in combat contact to their fate, so not very organized even for Russia.
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It is my strong conviction that it is Ukraine that is keeping up the pressure in Donbass and not the other way around, and that Russia is currently trying to avoid losing Donbass. The rebels have probably been overused and are in poor condition by now, and they made up a fairly large part of the units in Donbass.
08:22
It seems there have been 16 Russian BTGs in Donbass plus the rebels who have been fighting for a month and are spread between Luhansk down to Mariupol. They have attacked the ceasefire line which has held so far, and if they have succeeded as brilliantly there as on other fronts, the losses must have been quite dramatic, I think?
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A bit hard to know what Ukraine is pushing southward but between Zaporizhzhia – Severodonetsk, Ukraine has 6 mechanized brigades, half of which were reserves west of Kiev, plus a larger number of infantry brigades. I cannot see that the force balance is in Russia’s favor in any way, and a few days ago they hit three dug-in battalions west of Kiev, so Ukraine seems capable of offensive combat, or else it is the Russians who do not master defensive combat.
08:32
Georgia imposes sanctions on Russia while Russia pulls its units from the disputed area to send to Donbass.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1509740552820076567?cxt=HHwWrsC9nZXC1vMpAAAA
10:40
Now we have video evidence that it was Ukraine that destroyed the fuel depot, so all the times it was “someone else” who, by any delivery method, destroyed something automatically becomes Ukraine.
I think they could have low-flown a Mi29 or SU25 instead of a slow helicopter, but this became an excellent alibi if there were other actors on other occasions.
10:45
Northern Ukraine between Kiev-Kharkiv is probably soon cleared of Russian units and new encirclements are underway, and I am quite convinced that it is Ukraine keeping up the pressure against the old ceasefire line and not the other way around, but we’ll see.
Just the fact that they have to write off 13 BTG trying to flee north and east of Kiev is a blow. It will soon become too much pressure everywhere for the Russians to hold out, and then the house of cards will start to fall. Donbass is lost but Crimea is probably not so easy to retake, so maybe it will be Russia’s remaining bargaining chip?
15:04
Last comment, there are many videos of Russian retreating vehicles with the gas pedal to the floor, outright flight, and the losses will be sky-high.
East of Kiev and south of Chernihiv – Sumy there are large Russian units left that will have difficulty getting out as there are only a few roads that can easily be closed.
Collapse and breakdown of the northern front is probably what we are seeing right now, it was appropriate to loosen up on the alcohol in Kiev yesterday 🙂
15:10
I think we have reached the point where Ukraine is too strong and the Russians have too few reserves, so they can no longer plug all the holes. Sure, the Russians attack locally because the staff is in chaos and everyone does what they have been ordered, but right now the entire northern front is being rolled up, so the units there can almost be written off. Kherson is in its final verse and Ukraine has all the heavy brigades east of the Dnipro, so one can guess they will at least try to cut Donbass before this is over. It has gone incredibly fast along the northern front, so Russian defense of captured terrain is probably just as poor as their mobile combat.
15:15
Hope they film the next peace meeting with Russia where their delegation slowly starts begging for a ceasefire 🙂
The Russians have not yet brought up enough reserves and Ukraine’s steamroller is slowly starting to pick up speed.
There is no lack of motivation, people will soon pay bribes to be enlisted as soldiers and get to shoot at Russians, said the YouTuber.
As a bonus for getting 100 years of built-up aggression out of their system, they get EU membership and the West pays for the country’s reconstruction.
15:20
If I were the Russian staff, I would slowly start preparing the defense of Gomel, Belgorod and Kursk as this is shaping up. It will free up units they planned to send to Donbass.
Maybe Ukraine should take a symbolic step onto Russian soil just to trigger this, a YouTube video in front of a village name and grinning Ukrainians and then claim a company commander broke orders if it becomes a bigger issue?
15:26
No exactly, it takes its time to regroup from the northern front to Donbass and right now it’s full shooting range so those who manage to get north of the border are probably in pretty bad shape. One can guess the staff is slowly starting to look at defending Gomel, Belgorod and Kursk and then they have even less to send to Donbass.
The Russians definitely do not have time on their side because now Ukraine is slowly starting to roll out its fully mobilized reserves so it could get quite lively at the southern front and Donbass pretty soon.
18:08
Now things are rattling in Kherson too, 11 villages liberated.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1509728168411807744
Right now all I see in videos are grinning Ukrainian soldiers passing destroyed Russian armor and crying civilians offering eggs, it’s somewhat incredible.
Ukraine is advancing everywhere right now except at the old ceasefire line and the Russian spring offensive probably shouldn’t be delayed too long because then the Russian invasion army will be completely defeated.
Consider here that everywhere Ukraine has advances, it is with the national guard or infantry with assigned tanks or IFVs and not the mechanized or armored brigades which are largely along the old ceasefire line now or along the southern front.
18:09
If you ask me, this is not a retreat exploited by Ukraine but Ukraine initiating offensive operations that the Russians are trying to flee from. Down in Kherson, there is no indication that the Russians would retreat from there; on the contrary, the general staff stated that Kherson was prioritized.
18:09
Now things are picking up in Kherson as well, 11 villages liberated.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1509728168411807744
Right now, all I see from videos are grinning Ukrainian soldiers passing destroyed Russian armor and crying civilians offering eggs, it’s somewhat incredible.
Ukraine is advancing everywhere right now except at the old ceasefire line, and the Russians’ spring offensive probably shouldn’t be delayed too long because then the Russian invasion army will be completely defeated.
07:49
Something dramatic has happened with the encircled Russian BTG southwest of Kiev. First, there were videos of rows of burning tanks and then reports of 700 vehicles trying to get out on the Kiev – Ivankiv road, which Ukraine should have had under direct fire, and now this morning a larger group, how large, who knows, is trying to get south of Kiev and then head east! I find it hard to see this not becoming a shooting range.