09:30
I think Solros2022 has an interesting reasoning in his posts from time to time where he takes a step further beyond this conflict and discusses what should happen with Russia. There is a very strong Russia lobby in Sweden and the world that will work hard for Russia/Putin to slip away from this fiasco but Solros is on the ball here with denazifying Russia and dividing the country into republics, as was done after WW2 (not republics but the denazification).
I haven’t really thought that far but I think the reasoning has merit and realize that a serious reprogramming is required because in other forums there are people like us – family, job, children, house in Sweden – who consider that Russia is acting completely justly, somewhere along the way they have started reading the extremely well-made Russian propaganda and have turned to believe that Russia is the victim. I know Germany, WW2, Hitler well enough to see that the points of contact are very many.
10:21
I interpret it as that they –
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are firing artillery at Mykolaiv but do not have the capacity for an offensive, they have given up against Kryvyi Rih and gone on the defensive but failed to make any progress against Mykolaiv at all so that has already died out. The artillery is to keep Ukraine in uncertainty, sort of. Considering how few BTGs the Russians have, I don’t think they can push over 15-20 BTGs west of the Dnipro to succeed in breaking the deadlock so it is likely the end of forward movement here and they go on permanent defense, or retreat east of the Dnipro.
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In Mariupol they have left a screen to encircle the defenders in Azovstal, presumably Chechens and DPR rebels. Fighting occurs when the defenders carry out fire raids against these and it will intensify because Azov seems to have big problems with ADHD and can’t sit still for more than a few minutes at a time.
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At Kharkiv there is artillery shelling and Ukraine has quietly retaken more settlements north of Kharkiv, so far the only conclusion can be that the Russians will not try to attack Kharkiv. However, there is some kind of fighting over settlements affecting the Kupiansk offensive so it can be assumed the Russians have now taken notice of it. This basically only means that the BTGs they need down at Izyum have to remain up at Kupiansk.
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Just this alone I think is an incredible effort by Ukraine, they have basically reduced the front line by 60% in just under two months. It is a mix of two factors, Russian losses and Ukrainian mobilization that forces the Russians into smaller and smaller areas to achieve local superiority. Some time ago the critical mass shifted in Ukraine’s favor and they can no longer lose more than in local offensives and then it is under tactical retreats to avoid losses.
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In the pocket/bow north of Horlivka it MUST be lively, it is mobile defensive fighting with towns like hedgehogs behind enemy lines and all terrain to Kramatorsk/Sloviansk can be abandoned meter by meter against tank wrecks. It has cost the Russians 54 armored vehicles in one day! If you ask me, I think things are going quite badly for the Russians so far in that area, I had expected greater local successes for the Russians there but I have no real insight, just going on a bubbling positive gut feeling 🙂
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At the stalemate line it is mainly near Donetsk and down towards Vuhledar that they are pressing and then the old favorite, “drive along the provincial line Donetsk Oblast northwards”.
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It is really unpleasant in places and Ukraine is right to shout wolf as loud as they can because they almost need infinite offensive weapons here but now it is the fourth morning of the spring offensive and very little terrain has been taken at very high losses, not least the air force is raining down from the sky right now.
I have thought a lot about the units on the front line when an offensive like this starts because some unit has to do it knowing they will likely be overrun, whether it is a battalion, company or platoon. An enormous strength that the lines hold is that the Ukrainians are prepared to die for their cause here.
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The question now is how many of the 85 BTGs (was that the number?) the Russians have committed for four days of fighting is about what one BTG can handle. If they can rotate a couple of echelons in some places there might be some energy left in a few BTGs for 4+4 days of attempts at local offensives here and there? The media continue to write that the offensive has not started together with the experts but the number of Russian BTGs speaks for itself here, I think. Just down at Izyum they have 20% of all available BTGs and all have already had combat contact and are stuck.
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Kherson and Kupiansk we have been going on about for weeks and if one tries to guess where Ukraine will put in a sneak attack I think Melitopol is a good candidate. It is a major logistics hub for the entire southern offensive and much of the logistics to the southern front must go through the city. The critical mass is to Russia’s disadvantage and Ukraine can defend and carry out local offensives where the Russians are weak. Now I always forget air superiority and that the Russians must be denied it and I don’t really have a grip on that to be honest so we’ll have to wait and see.
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Should also start hitting in Rostov-on-Don or maybe it is but we hear nothing.
15:03
Ok thread, below is from a pro-Russian forum and I am very curious what this is 🙂
Erik14 is usually quick so it’s probably already in the thread…
Has Ukraine made a diversionary attack on Belgorod on Russian territory 🙂
“Today’s attack of the armored group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of the Belgorod region is nothing more than an attempt to pull off part of the forces from the Izyum direction. Such steps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were calculated for a long time and did not come as a surprise. That is why the armored group was destroyed”.
15:14
I think the strikes deep inside Russian territory are significant, the country is a colossus on clay feet with zero control and just the strikes in Belgorod were quite remarkable?
One can understand that they had to flee from Belarus when there was sabotage everywhere but deep inside the country?
We like to believe it is Ukraine but isn’t the chance greater that it is a domestic sabotage action?
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We hear nothing from Russia really but a war like this is an opportunity not to be missed for the opposition, rival oligarchs or if the West wants to pacify Russia so there must be quite a lot going on behind the scenes here.
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Does anyone disagree, why would Putin then need his own security guard of 40,000 people and sit in a bunker in Altai in the middle of nowhere 🙂
09:20
Now I know we are starting a new thread today but I just have to comment that when you know that five-year-old children are raped, tortured and murdered in front of their parents who are then released, it is very stomach-churning to take any position for Russia in any matter.