If you look at how things are around the Izyum offensive, you have;
– SE it is forest down to Slovyansk
– S it is open fields down to Barvinkove with the 3rd Tank brigade defending.
– W it is forest cover for a while and then open fields with the 81st Airmobile or 25th Airborne defending.
It is my firm conviction that they have come as far as they can there +/- some small village that Ukraine retakes at night.
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Between Slovyansk – Severdonetsk there is a long belt of forest and the Russians have started sniffing around it near Yampil and around Severdonetsk. West of Severdonetsk is open terrain but with direct fire from the forest belt so nothing you can just roll through. I am quite sure it will come to an abrupt stop for the Russians in that forest belt. There are 4 elite brigades that can fall back to that line and hold defensive positions in the forest which the Russians need to attack over open fields – of course they might try and they will suffer astronomical losses. In this offensive they will thus not even succeed in encircling Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, let that sink in for a while…
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If you do some map fighting around Popasna you understand that Ukraine holds the village/town because it is open ground around it. There are 2 mech and 1 armor in that area and they can let go of Popasna and hold strategic terrain behind it so the best scenario for the Russians is that they manage to take Popasna but then it is a dead end and the Russians have concentrated heavily there. It is too far south of the Slovyansk – Severdonetsk line to even pose a threat of encirclement.
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Along the ceasefire line for Ukraine an excellent defensive battle, they conduct tactical retreats but retake terrain before the Russians have consolidated every single time. I also get the feeling that it is mostly Donbass rebels there and fewer ethnically Russian BTGs. Between Donetsk – Horlivka – Popasna they don’t seem to be getting anywhere but if they did it has zero strategic value, Ukraine just falls back to the next defensive position and rinse and repeat.
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There is a small arc between Vuhledar – Marinka which I think is quite difficult to defend and west of that the Russians are running their “drive up along the provincial border Donbass Oblast”. I think against that arc they have deployed a lot of the BTGs they moved from Mariupol so probably a hot spot that Ukraine does not have a strong defense against (right now) and it is quite lively there. Probably Ukraine is taking very heavy losses here but the lines hold so far and again, if the Russians manage to straighten out the arc it is no strategic gain and Ukraine just falls back to the next village.
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The nonsense with attacking along the provincial border Donetsk Oblast towards Zelena Pole (not to underestimate Ukraine’s defense but Russian nonsense) is no threat in any way, Ukraine falls back to the next village etc. There is a Ukrainian mech brigade in defensive battle there.
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Between Vasylivka – Huliapole it is quiet and as is well known where I think Ukraine’s counterattack will come down towards Melitopol. There are not many Russian BTGs along that stretch.
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Kherson is a trap about to close.
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Up by Kupiansk the mech brigade seems to have taken a break, they are clearing north of Kharkov to protect the flank of the Kupiansk advance and probably want to release as many Russian units as possible towards Izyum before trying to tie up the loose ends seriously up there.
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I’m sticking my neck out a bit but my assessment is that the Russian offensive is stuck everywhere and that it is over, especially at strategic locations. The Russians are stuck with 50 BTGs north of Slovyansk – Severdonetsk and 8 – 10 BTGs west of the Dnieper at Kherson and the Donbass rebels are the decent pals the Russians have thrown forward first in all battles for two months, they must be quite war-weary.
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A strategic disaster for the Russians, they have 60% of their units on the flanks which are denied movement (or of course they can go around…) and the center is weak. Now I don’t know exactly when Ukraine’s counteroffensive will start but there are many signals that something is underway; buildup near Zaporozhye, rumors that Poland will take over the line against Belarus, movement of National Guard brigades from western Ukraine eastward (the blogger yesterday I think) so they are definitely building up a reserve they can deliver a serious blow with 🙂
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Sure, it would have been damn cool if Russia lost Crimea by May 9 but Ukraine has fought calmly and methodically so far and if you ask me it will continue exactly the same way and May 9 has no value other than symbolism and that is no reason to die for. Right now SOF should be pouring in behind the southern front and they are probably starting to equip the first tracked howitzers. A breakthrough in the south will go fast and Crimea is the second goal after Melitopol and Mariupol I hope 🙂
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Air superiority says someone immediately but Ukraine’s air force should be fairly on track again, every soldier has a Stinger, Moskva is gone, Russian air defense is a priority target and Russian air losses are very high so yes they are working to solve that problem as fast as they can.
10:45
If you look at how things are around the Izyum offensive, you have;
– SE it is forest down to Slovyansk
– S it is open fields down to Barvinkove with the 3rd Tank brigade defending.
– W it is forest cover for a while and then open fields with the 81st Airmobile or 25th Airborne defending.
It is my firm conviction that they have come as far as they can there +/- some small village that Ukraine retakes at night.
—
Between Slovyansk – Severdonetsk there is a long belt of forest and the Russians have started sniffing around it near Yampil and around Severdonetsk. West of Severdonetsk is open terrain but with direct fire from the forest belt so nothing you can just roll through. I am quite sure it will come to an abrupt stop for the Russians in that forest belt. There are 4 elite brigades that can fall back to that line and hold defensive positions in the forest which the Russians need to attack over open fields – of course they might try and they will suffer astronomical losses. In this offensive they will thus not even succeed in encircling Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, let that sink in for a while…
—
If you do some map fighting around Popasna you understand that Ukraine holds the village/town because it is open ground around it. There are 2 mech and 1 armor in that area and they can let go of Popasna and hold strategic terrain behind it so the best scenario for the Russians is that they manage to take Popasna but then it is a dead end and the Russians have concentrated heavily there. It is too far south of the Slovyansk – Severdonetsk line to even pose a threat of encirclement.
—
Along the ceasefire line for Ukraine an excellent defensive battle, they conduct tactical retreats but retake terrain before the Russians have consolidated every single time. I also get the feeling that it is mostly Donbass rebels there and fewer ethnically Russian BTGs. Between Donetsk – Horlivka – Popasna they don’t seem to be getting anywhere but if they did it has zero strategic value, Ukraine just falls back to the next defensive position and rinse and repeat.
—
There is a small arc between Vuhledar – Marinka which I think is quite difficult to defend and west of that the Russians are running their “drive up along the provincial border Donbass Oblast”. I think against that arc they have deployed a lot of the BTGs they moved from Mariupol so probably a hot spot that Ukraine does not have a strong defense against (right now) and it is quite lively there. Probably Ukraine is taking very heavy losses here but the lines hold so far and again, if the Russians manage to straighten out the arc it is no strategic gain and Ukraine just falls back to the next village.
—
The nonsense with attacking along the provincial border Donetsk Oblast towards Zelena Pole (not to underestimate Ukraine’s defense but Russian nonsense) is no threat in any way, Ukraine falls back to the next village etc. There is a Ukrainian mech brigade in defensive battle there.
—
Between Vasylivka – Huliapole it is quiet and as is well known where I think Ukraine’s counterattack will come down towards Melitopol. There are not many Russian BTGs along that stretch.
—
Kherson is a trap about to close.
—
Up by Kupiansk the mech brigade seems to have taken a break, they are clearing north of Kharkov to protect the flank of the Kupiansk advance and probably want to release as many Russian units as possible towards Izyum before trying to tie up the loose ends seriously up there.
—
I’m sticking my neck out a bit but my assessment is that the Russian offensive is stuck everywhere and that it is over, especially at strategic locations. The Russians are stuck with 50 BTGs north of Slovyansk – Severdonetsk and 8 – 10 BTGs west of the Dnieper at Kherson and the Donbass rebels are the decent pals the Russians have thrown forward first in all battles for two months, they must be quite war-weary.
—
A strategic disaster for the Russians, they have 60% of their units on the flanks which are denied movement (or of course they can go around…) and the center is weak. Now I don’t know exactly when Ukraine’s counteroffensive will start but there are many signals that something is underway; buildup near Zaporozhye, rumors that Poland will take over the line against Belarus, movement of National Guard brigades from western Ukraine eastward (the blogger yesterday I think) so they are definitely building up a reserve they can deliver a serious blow with 🙂
—
Sure, it would have been damn cool if Russia lost Crimea by May 9 but Ukraine has fought calmly and methodically so far and if you ask me it will continue exactly the same way and May 9 has no value other than symbolism and that is no reason to die for. Right now SOF should be pouring in behind the southern front and they are probably starting to equip the first tracked howitzers. A breakthrough in the south will go fast and Crimea is the second goal after Melitopol and Mariupol I hope 🙂
—
Air superiority says someone immediately but Ukraine’s air force should be fairly on track again, every soldier has a Stinger, Moskva is gone, Russian air defense is a priority target and Russian air losses are very high so yes they are working to solve that problem as fast as they can.