12:05
The American howitzers whose effect we have seen up near Izyum are wheeled and can thus be regrouped quite quickly. My thought is that they will move them down to Zaporizhzhia fairly soon to start pre-bombardment down there.
Tracked howitzers are a bit trickier, they are somewhat limited to one area and a move requires heavy transport and they are quite large targets.
12:07
Have you noticed that Ukraine shoots down huge numbers of drones, about 20 per report which is probably accumulated losses over a few days.
Sure, the Russians are doing air missions over eastern Ukraine but they are gradually being denied airspace there.
Then Ukraine’s air force has risen from the dead as usual, it was a bit chaotic around the operation in Kursk but the task was that it was UAF, i.e. not drones, that struck targets there.
12:10
One can thus hope that there is a plan to deny the Russians flight access to Sevastopol. If they can shoot down a couple of planes, the Russians will abort the operation and have to find other routes, which takes longer and extends Ukraine’s window to retake Crimea.
12:16
My impression is that we have gone from – 12 municipal guys standing and watching one dig – to those who do the job being quite lean and efficient but many layers of administration have been added in the ordering organizations which at best cause no more problems than they solve. The last 10 years we have had many modernities that are not the least important for the core task that administrative staff work on and they add extra work for those who work on the core task.
An example is Malmö’s hundreds of communicators who instead of solving problems in Malmö talk away the problems in Malmö.
12:34
Now there is less burning in Izyum on FIRMS again but that was the case yesterday too and during the day it got really red so I dare not say anything here…
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There is some burning in the Russians’ rear in Kherson but they have not started blowing anything away west of the Dnipro on a large scale yet. The southern front is red in Orikhiv but it is a contested area so no blockbuster directly, Livuamap talks about a bombed hospital so maybe that?
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If we are to let FIRMS lead us and now we probably have the images from the latest overflight I guess, then offensive operations have not started in either Kherson or south of Zaporizhzhia at the time of the overflight. It is pre-bombardment of the rear with fewer artillery tubes. Considering roadblocks in Kherson, that they found wounded behind the Russian front line and that it exploded in Melitopol, it is probably quite lively free war behind the Russian front now. I believe the national battalions standing along the southern front are infiltrating and the 74th Intelligence Battalion is in the area as well as every brigade with some self-respect having at least one reconnaissance company – there should be thousands in the free war behind the southern front now including Western SOF and the Russians probably don’t get much sleep on top of everything else.
Right now, one can guess that 777 howitzers are rolling towards Zaporizhzhia.
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Now the question is what the below means 🙂
I put down five hundred that it is in the weak point Vasylivka – Polohy but is it a local counterattack or the start of something exciting towards Melitopol…
”Ukrainian military conduction counter-offensive at Zaporizhzhia frontline – regional administration”
12:37
Very good if the Russians get to take Popasna because then maybe they believe in a breakthrough and send reinforcements there.
The city has zero strategic value and Ukraine just falls back to the next defense line.
That is really the very definition of trading hectares of potato fields for burnt-out tank wrecks.
12:46
Listen to this analysis from Slava (pro-Russian), they really don’t have much to celebrate so it had to be Popasna, if Putin mentions Popasna in his victory speech we know it’s bad for the Russians 🙂
A quick look at the map and Bakhmut will never fall.
”Popasnaya is the ”Stalingrad” of Donbass
A very important strategic settlement, the capture of which breaks the first, most powerful line of defense of Ukraine in the Donbass.
A number of sources report that the Allied forces managed to take Popasna under full control.
The next stage, apparently, will be an attack on Bakhmut along the H-32 highway. With the alignment of the front in the north and south. Bakhmut, in turn, is the key to taking control of the M-03 highway, the main route to Slavyansk from the south”.
13:20
We’ll see what happens in the coming week here, May 9 is not an important date for Ukraine and I’m surprised they cut Izyum already now but there are a few things that should happen soon here,
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Russia must start thinking about the defense of Belgorod so if Ukraine has some precision artillery and a strong presence in Vovchansk (which they must take first..) it ties up the Russian BTG at Belgorod. Ukraine will not try to take the city but they will troll the Russians as much as they can so reinforcements must go there to protect the governor’s paintings and silver.
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Popasna is a smart move but they probably let it go to save lives, if the Russians believe they have a breakthrough and send more BTGs there it would be welcome because it’s out in the middle of nowhere. It’s just fields around there and if you look at how far the Russians got at Izyum it was only to protected areas, all attempts across open fields ended badly and around Popasna there are potato fields within firing range that really make your mouth water.
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What remains of the Russian command is now pondering what the hell happened down in Izyum, there are no staffs left directly and the reports are probably quite scattered. Some division commander keeping up the lie with a ”we are winning, the Ukrainians are fleeing like dogs” while some BTG took its last vehicle and drove north and in panic shouts that it’s over to some groggy colonel up in Kupiansk.
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All focus is on Belgorod, Izyum and Popasna right now because at Kherson and the southern front the reports are that ”everything is calm, we kill so many Ukrainians you can hardly believe it”. A tactically smart move is to strike at Kherson and south of Zaporizhzhia fairly soon in the middle of the mess the Russian command is in now and before a general order has gone out to go on defense. The goal of that offensive is to deny 7 Russian BTGs at Kherson retreat, take Melitopol, liberate Mariupol and close all retreat routes down to Crimea. Phase 2 is to retake Crimea but for that you need to bring forward artillery tubes aimed at the defense of Crimea and nest suitable units for free war on a large scale. You also need to cut the bridge at Kerch and sink the last remaining larger ships in the Russian Black Sea fleet – the air force should have something to do here. The defenders of Crimea will quickly feel that they have no way out and if Ukraine plays its cards right it could be a negotiated surrender with some hardcore units fighting a while longer rather than a Russian version of fighting to the last bullet (you get your BTG blown away by Ukrainian artillery in one day 🙂 )
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Donbass is further away in time, Ukraine will slowly retake all terrain north of Slovyansk – Severodonetsk and defend southwards. The Donbass line will probably also be defense and then they start rolling up Donbass from the south from Mariupol.
For this you need all artillery tubes, SOF for free war and a well-balanced offensive that slowly works forward. Rostov-on-Don will burn like a Christmas tree and all major depots in Donbass and attempts to convert Donbass rebels will be made.
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If Russia tries to reinforce Donbass it is only through Rostov-on-Don that Ukraine can block or through Voronezh where roads to Donbass will be too close to Ukraine so they can effectively disrupt transports there.
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It’s truly game over 🙂
13:23
Here you have the latest losses (last in the thread as usual I guess).
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523228717564440576/photo/1
13:36
This Canadian is a bit unclear whether he is in his mother’s basement reposting the obvious but is there more information on the Ukrainian offensive near Zaporizhzhia than what has been posted so far?
https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1523236854166073344
13:49
If anyone thinks Izyum is not a bloodbath, here is one, some base north of Izyum that took a hit,
https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1523247089119272960
13:50
Vasquez seems to be having fun too, how one flips an armored vehicle I have no idea but they have probably mostly been driving it around without training I guess.
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1523235445521678338?cxt=HHwWhIDU-aakz6MqAAAA
13:55
Second on that after the blog now (as usual 🙂 )
14:10
Yes, in the beginning more was needed to counter MSM’s purely defeatist (however you spell it…) reporting but quite quickly it became the situation on the ground. I should get better at conveying timelines because sometimes I make it sound like everything is happening tomorrow which I don’t believe but right now I actually have trouble keeping up.
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A pretty funny thing is that when the spring offensive started we gambled that one way to deny Russia its version of a win was to conduct mobile combat backward in the arc/pocket north of Horlivka and give that up while simultaneously stealing Crimea. Now it went even better than a good scenario in that combat area but for Crimea it is definitely a big blue southbound arrow on the map in the Ukrainian command. It’s coming.
14:55
Yes, that’s right and you might remember I wrote a lot about Mariupol when I thought it would fall because they all get a shot in the neck as thanks for the defense, one of the biggest losses in this war would be if Mariupol fell.
However, I think the situation in the bunker complex is better than we guessed but the wounded and civilians have had it tough. Ukraine will try to liberate the garrison and I would be very surprised if the Russians get a win there.
Ukraine has had it tough everywhere and their losses are infinitely higher than we think but they are winning the war meter by meter.
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I have probably written several times about that unit – group, platoon or company, that is first in a Russian attack and ready to die for their cause and there are many videos of dead Ukrainians on pro-Russian media because they like to show that. I get a reality check every time that it could be me lying there rotting and that’s how war is, chance decides. Then all the prisoners of war who you know are tortured to death as soon as the video is done where they confess allegiance to Russia. There is so much other crap too – the five-year-old who was raped, tortured and murdered in front of her mother and then they let her go free is probably the worst thing one can do, or a dead mother with an infant who they booby-trapped and the guys who were going to pick up the living child were blown up.
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However, there is great value in not falling into the swamp because now we are supporting a Ukrainian win and every comment about reducing suffering has the purpose of getting Ukraine not to retake Donbass and Crimea and give Russia a chance to do this again. Unfortunately, you can be absolutely sure that the Russians will end this with an absolute orgy of blood – terror bombing with all the ammunition they have left, killing Ukrainian prisoners of war and raping, torturing and murdering the last civilians left in conquered areas. Bucha was not nearly the worst. The prisoners of war who possibly come home will do so without legs and teeth. After the war a lunar landscape will be rebuilt, half a million soldiers with PTSD will return to a functioning life and a violated civilian population will be repaired.
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All that will come but first the war must be won and that is why I write the way I do.
15:21
The pro-Russian media I follow have not hinted at anything big, they have rather become quieter and complain about NATO etc. If Putin were to launch a tactical nuclear weapon over Ukraine, or Finland, it would be a very big tragedy but it does not change the outcome of the war. Considering how far along they seem to be, there is that risk and I guess the US is keeping very good track of what potentially nuclear-capable systems are doing and that they will try to take them out before launch if they can. They probably have the capacity to strike individual launchers before they are sent off but if there are too many they are in the air.
If we take Ukraine, they will then be sent against cities but the maneuver brigades are not affected and they have basically achieved the same effect in e.g. Mariupol and Kharkiv as if they had shot tactical nuclear weapons at them.
15:39
14:28 update, if one dares to make a qualified guess it was the 64th Motorized Brigade in the forest belt SW of Izyum and that the fires we have seen on FIRMS and Nathan’s maps really match and that most of the Izyum offensive is burning and bleeding?
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There is now heavy fire also in a forest area directly W of Izyum and it was not burning there yesterday as well as two spots north on the retreat route 🙂 The question then is how many burning vehicles does it take to register on FIRMS as a red dot?
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The fact that it is burning on the retreat route north is for me a sign that those who could have tried to retreat but ran into mines and ambushes, or that the heavy brigades have pushed forward but we do not know that yet.
I think we can write off all brigades that have been down by Izyum – W of Oskil.
There are a couple of BTGs standing in defense along that W flank and some up by Kupiansk but the absolute majority have been in the forest areas around Izyum, this is a purely astronomical blow to Russian command because they pressed in +20% of all available BTGs at Izyum and they are completely wiped out in 4 days.
15:41
Hell knows when FIRMS updates but now there is more burning near Kherson, it is east of the Dnipro and presumably rear, artillery, staffs and logistics. At the Kherson front line Snihurivka seems to be about to be taken and with that taken all bridges over the Dnipro are under indirect fire.
16:07
I give it a maximum of a week before the southern front has collapsed and if you haven’t seen UAF in action you will be saturated with videos of them taking out retreating Russian units driving like car thieves towards Crimea. The artillery can’t keep up in a wild flight but you can probably assume that infiltrated units have prepared mining, ambushes and fixed artillery targets so that it becomes a real obstacle course. When FIRMS lights up near Kherson or the fast ones start posting videos of car-thief-driving Russians it’s time.
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To support this even with my fairly positive assumptions I want to remind that there are 10 Ukrainian maneuver brigades W of the Dnipro down in that area and if you can make Izyum into one big Viking burial (i.e. burning your dead…) with max 4 brigades and a couple of national battalions it can’t go any other way here. Russian air is now also denied eastern Ukraine but it requires pushing forward under a strong air defense umbrella and with UAF.
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I am beginning to suspect that the attack on Izyum was a diversion before the real attack which is the southern front. As a diversion it has gone pretty well. It is also burning in Prymorske so the Russians’ rear near Kherson is under pressure now, they are hitting targets in depth.
16:12
Now to today’s highlight, if you look at FIRMS there is a string of red dots north and south of Svatove.
What is burning we can probably all guess along a Russian advance/retreat route but I have poor knowledge of the area otherwise except that the Russians are said to have continued pressing towards Yampil. Is it the free war that has really started or drone attacks.
However, this means that they are also striking targets east of the Oskil river now.
16:32
By UAF I meant Ukrainian Air Force but maybe abbreviated it wrong?
Anyway, when the southern front collapses Ukraine’s air force will blow away the retreating Russian units.
16:35
Yes, it was up quite early but when the fronts were static it didn’t mean much but in times of fog of war with a lot of movement it’s almost like having your own spy satellite 🙂
Nathan Ruser whoever he is has access to real satellite data and has been very accurate, he has even posted thermal camera images from satellite.
The beta test was probably at Izyum and there Nathan confirmed what we could see on FIRMS so now it’s just to go.
16:47
Was to Moralist should be added, always forget the names when I reply…
16:50
Yes Stefpalm so you first have to go into Google Maps and figure out where the dot is, then you have to go into the Militarylands map and figure out who controls the area where it is burning and then write a triumphant post. Now maybe that map layer exists on FIRMS and I just haven’t found it but it’s a bit fiddly before you have pinpointed the right place name. For example, I haven’t even bothered to decipher all the red dots in Donbass but mostly noted that it is burning heavily on the front line there and east of the Oskil river but it is contested.
21:27
I had thought to guess that Putin would choose either to try to de-escalate/freeze or even try to claim that the real goal was achieved with the maskirovka Ukraine and that Petsamo and Vladivostok were now protected, time to go home.
After today’s posted comments in the thread about job ads for recruiters and Putin’s speech today I am very uncertain – I actually don’t dare to guess here.
This changes nothing in substance, Ukraine is playing its only card here to retake all of Ukraine by force.
Considering the poison coming from the Russians right now my strong opinion is that everything that can be done to disrupt the parade should be done, Anonymous seems to have taken some joltcola and started.
It is becoming clear that the Russians are trying to fortify Crimea and then you can guess that at some level in the command they understand that they may need to defend Crimea. Considering the amount of barrels with smart artillery ammunition, the number of drones and SOF Ukraine now has at its disposal, a fixed defense of Crimea is very vulnerable but the stronger the peninsula is fortified the longer it will take to clear it.
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It is absolutely dreadful that Putin clearly states that the Russians shall take revenge on Ukraine, another aspect of Ukraine retaking all its territory relatively quickly is that more civilians trapped there will survive. This is like a serial killer who has just started to get going, the Russians will ethnically cleanse Ukraine if they get the chance and Ukraine denies them that chance. I sincerely hope that the leaders of the free countries do not chicken out after this because somehow the Russians’ fourth-reich ambitions must be permanently sunk here, if it ends with NATO countries along the entire Russian border and sanctions forever with visa bans then so be it, as long as they cannot pounce on a country like this again.
21:52
Since Gerasimov has been at Izyum and they are now slowly starting to get a grip on what is happening I begin to wonder if Putin has even received the truth or completely fabricated reports. We assume that he knows what we know but when the reports eventually reach his desk the pig has been made up four or five times.
I take as an example the Russians’ official reports on Ukrainian losses, something like 2600 tanks or something like that.
Putin might actually live in the belief that Ukraine is on its knees here?
I honestly don’t know but it could explain the total dissonance.
22:48
Now you were the second one to write something about it so I went in and clicked on the streets tab under static backgrounds, suddenly it became the Google map with lots of red on it. If nothing else I have signposted for all of Sweden my monumental ignorance with something as user-friendly as FIRMS and nice that you try to help and not just mock 🙂
23:17
I know this news segment on national TV in prime time has been up and no attempt to bypass earlier discussion but if you remember the colonel who wanted a moment of silence for fallen soldiers he was completely silenced, here the moderators let this guy open up properly. With all the conflicting positions coming from the Russians it is completely impossible to get any kind of middle ground so I settle for noting that such a bombing either was sanctioned and a test balloon or the FSB is standing in reception waiting.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498?s=20&t=N_ixSI3K9RFbPQjLAKAY6g
23:25
I might have gone a bit far regarding Crimea because it seems they have lined everything up in a limited geographical area in some kind of preparation for suicide.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-may-russian-army-deployed-additional-sam-and-mlrs-at-the
12:03
As the blogger writes, unfortunately those battle-hardened and in this context good Russian units from Syria are probably intended to reinforce Crimea. They will be flown in with personal equipment.
Anyone have numbers here?
The window for Ukraine to retake Crimea just became smaller and since it was written yesterday that the Russians are completely passive, they have of course started to counter. If it turns out that they are sent to Donbass, that’s totally fine, but if they go on defense in Crimea, it’s more difficult.
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Ukraine will cut the bridge to Kerch and start nibbling at northern Crimea fairly soon but if the Russians try to freeze the conflict and have troops to back that up, the turncoats in the EU might change their stance. I imagine Ukraine will push on anyway but it will be a bit more drawn out than if they just roll in.