13:45
I almost got the feeling here that after Putin paraded some polished boots that somewhat managed to march in step, it painted the picture that the situation cannot be as bad for them in Ukraine as claimed since they must still have a lot of kick left. It is a completely internal stunt that any dictator with a bit of self-respect runs, big parades and driving around with the latest but when you are simultaneously losing a war you cannot maintain the lie in the same way. Before the war started the whole world except LW believed they had a higher capability than they turned out to have.
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According to the thread yesterday, the Russians have now decided that a couple of potato fields in easternmost Ukraine are the strategic goal they have strived to achieve throughout the whole war, everything else has been a gigantic maskirovka, most recently Kharkiv is no longer of interest because they were never really interested in the city, just trolling Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense has let us understand something along those lines.
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Then I am of the opinion that it is fog of war right now, Ukraine has historically kept quiet properly when something is underway and there IS something happening at Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. If you take Militaryland as truth you get the impression that it is quiet everywhere but I don’t think that is true. It is simmering in several places right now. The right strategy is to gradually increase pressure everywhere and they have the capacity for that.
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At Izyum I believe the Russians have taken a significantly bigger hit than we (well not me then…) think, BTGs were already reduced so there were no longer 40 vehicles to knock out per BTG and they knocked out those who were hiding in the forest areas around Izyum and it was a larger area. Now there is no will to die there in the trenches anymore and they don’t stick their noses up so they can move the barrels to the next front, which they do. Whether it was SOF who infiltrated over the bridge or one of the heavy elephants we don’t know but the fact remains that on Izyum’s western flank there are two Ukrainian brigades with high combat value otherwise there would have been some combat report on them.
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Anyway, just want to quote Paasikivi for some positive spin on the situation, he rang the gong for last week which the thread also did 😊
” Intelligence from the British Ministry of Defence shows that Ukraine is now advancing on several fronts.
According to Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi, a change in advances occurred as recently as last week.
– The initiative in the war has shifted to Ukraine, he says.
The British Ministry of Defence has published a map showing where fighting is currently taking place and which side is advancing. The map*, published on Tuesday, shows that Ukraine is pushing back on four fronts: in Izium, in Kharkiv, in Zaporizhzhia and outside Mykolaiv.”
14:05
It went on for quite a while, an air bridge with helicopters for medevac that flew in with food/ammunition and we saw some footage of two happy guys infiltrating with a couple of drones. Now I don’t think there are many gaps left but I actually don’t know that, basing it on the defenders starting to look desperate.
I almost religiously believe that the southern front is weak in Vasylivka – Polohy and that one should be able to push towards Tokmak and Melitopol and then in the general chaos make a targeted effort against Mariupol but it is a very tall order no matter how you twist and turn it. Simply put, you have to take heavy losses to free the defenders and if that fails or becomes a bloodbath then it’s not the win we are envisioning, they probably weigh pros and cons every day one would guess.
17:04
This one has probably been up before but the extent of Severodonetsk is going so-so, that’s probably a light BTG that has withdrawn at least.
https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1523689260599353344
17:06
If you read the first comment under this it’s interesting, unconfirmed of course,
https://twitter.com/CroftJo90/status/1523738431867686913?s=20&t=I8u55-e5dtwPzIkBNMzuAw
About 32,000 Russians have sent inquiries to find their soldiers.
The wives and mothers of Russian soldiers are actively contacting the Ministry of Internal Affairs to find out where their husbands and sons are. …
17:44
Yeah that one was geolocated so it’s crazy that you can go in and zoom around yourself like the worst Patton.
Do you think Google Maps will have updated in about half a year so you can then see destroyed vehicles?
13:27
Ukraine’s morale/combat value, whether it is high or low, I thought Mariupol would be a good litmus test (now they are approaching the end so below is not an attempt at relativization). The city is defended by more than six units. A mechanized brigade in some form was also involved for a good while and then there are some others, Georgians we have seen pictures of and according to Wikipedia a group of guys with very long tactical beards from the same unit as the RPG god.
Estimates of the size of the force have varied, initially we thought 20,000, then 11,000 and on Wikipedia it says about 4,500. Looking at all the units and that Azov alone would have been a full battalion, I think it was significantly more than 4,500 who were encircled but that is just my guess.
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Why are there not more wounded inside Azovstal, I believe Ukraine had functioning medevac for a long time and that as soon as you entered Azovstal the losses were lower. It is also possible that some units broke out of the encirclement at an early stage. Regarding prisoners, I am quite convinced that they can be counted in the hundreds not thousands because otherwise the Russians would have paraded them in front of the cameras. We have seen groups of 50-60 at a time on several occasions (we have guessed that some videos were fake). My impression is also that all units managed to retreat into Azovstal in some form, the last were special forces police and NG from the port who broke through. According to the interview yesterday, part of the fortress has collapsed because civilians were under the rubble so maybe also soldiers.
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The point I want to make is that this is a composite battle group of six different units and four or five smaller units that have taken astronomic losses no matter how you count it and have been cut off without possibility of relief for a very long time but they are to date conducting an active and mobile fight, otherwise the Russians would have just blown up all bunker openings and they have not done that (or I overestimate the Russians and they never saw Rambo I-IV).
When this kind of external pressure is applied, internal conflicts often start and I can only see that they unite in shooting Russians and fighting to the last bullet, everything else is secondary. Anyone who has done group work knows how it usually goes after the first meeting.
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I would say that you will have a hard time topping this combat value with any other Western unit and then maybe half are not the regular army or national battalions, no one really believed that state border guards would be veritable fighters.
Now I have no proof that the entire Ukrainian army has the same combat value but this is a group composed from all branches of defense and it is my conviction that the army at large is equivalent when you look at how hard the Russians have it to make progress anywhere.
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They hold their positions, conduct tactical retreats, retake at the first opportunity and are prepared to die for their country, which they also do. It takes quite a lot to advance immediately after having conducted a retreat, there is always some platoon that just manages to slip away by running like crazy in a ditch. A tactical retreat sounds nice but you try to save your skin as best you can. Then at the rally point you see who is left and recover for a few hours, a reserve company arrives and you take back what you lost after a cigarette and replenished ammo. It takes a man for that and Ukraine does this all the time every day everywhere before the Russians have dug in.
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The interview yesterday on CNN was unpleasant because it showed that they are starting to get desperate now so it is really time to break that encirclement, there is a great symbolic value in Mariupol never giving up and it would be this war’s great misfortune if the ending is a shot in the back of the defenders.