11:13
That is exactly what I think SKATORS. Now we also know that the 5th Tank brigade is ready to take on the role of battering ram and if you guess the two mech brigades and the last tank brigade in reserve are also heated up to the max. We also know that 777 is enough for 5 artillery battalions and that other tube artillery units have been formed. Then Ukraine has no direct shortage of artillery but maybe ammunition. It may be that they are preparing for an offensive here and holding back on the shelling a bit?
After all, there are two artillery brigades, one in Kherson and one south of Zaporozhye, and that is quite a lot of punch that doesn’t seem to be used to capacity max.
—
Ukraine can thus deliver an 8-battalion strike at night in two places (yes I understand that they don’t put all on the move in the middle of the night so they don’t run into each other) and that’s probably not a very deep defense the Russians have, rather a decent front line and then something behind that with a bit of goodwill can be called a second line. Before they get forward, there is an artillery brigade on each side of the Dnieper in a potential area for an offensive that can drop a bit of everything on the already logged artillery targets.
—
The air force and attack helicopters can probably do more than what we see here and in an offensive you have to add an effort from them as well.
12:05
It was more balanced far down in the article, someone wrote yesterday who has enough money for a subscription but I think you clearly show that the headline and lead are what matters. All opinion makers follow just those two. Yes, calling it territorial claims is quite a stretch 🙂
Then you wonder why it is called annexation and not occupation or simply stolen or something that sounds less positive than annexation. LW has always called it war in Europe which is the correct definition.
12:17
The spring offensive started a month ago and then Ukraine would have had 15,000 – 30,000 dead during that offensive.
Then add wounded x 3, right?
Don’t know the purpose of the statement but if Ukraine wants to get it out there, it’s probably good if we support it.
Spontaneously I think it sounds high because losses for the February 24 offensive were 10,000 or something but of course I know as little as everyone else.
—
You have to keep in mind here that Ukraine has a lot of territorial, national guard, special forces police, customs guards and volunteer battalions on the front lines that are outside the army of +200,000 and quite a lot of the losses are probably with them.
When you see prisoners for example, they are often quite scruffy and belong to NG or territorial. Now I’m not saying the maneuver brigades haven’t taken losses but shouting loudly and counting 200,000 – (30,000 x 3) is probably really wrong.
—
We can be quite sure that when the war is over, Ukraine’s losses that we then get numbers on will have been very high. In Mariupol the defense was +10,000 we have guessed and now it is zero. We can also be sure that the Russians’ losses have been higher than the daily lottery numbers.
14:42
When you look at what seems to be genuine combat footage from Kadyrov’s Chechens, the solution to the Russians’ maintenance problems is probably that they are not allowed to keep their weapons because I have probably never seen such ammunition waste.
Everyone empties everything they have in the direction of Ukraine all the time.
14:46
Now this is just a rather far-fetched guess but she knew she would have to leave parliament so she sold her vote for about 3 billion SEK or something that went directly to the Kurds (can’t remember the exact name but you know what I mean).
In my world, there is a fairly high probability that in a corrupt climate like it is down there and considering that she belongs to the group, she has received a hefty kickback and doesn’t need to work anymore in her life.
19:49
UG has an ability to burn through the noise, break everything down into its components and then connect the whole.
After the report on how Putin et al launder money, it strikes me how they must have seen Ukraine as a side issue and probably still do. They were going to slip in, take over the country and earn a few hundred billion more.
Now this little side issue is starting to shake the whole empire and the whip is cracking with suicidal oligarchs.
—
Russia is a criminal organization that also happens to be a large country with nuclear weapons, a clan ready to kill everyone who opposes their theft like the central bank chief, talk about having died in vain because it was 10 years too early. The West has largely facilitated this.
—
Now to the big problem, the West is quite hesitant with sanctions, they continue to buy gas/oil and the banks are not completely cut off. What has been seized is clearly the tip of the iceberg and they have all these leaks to fall back on and could probably cobble together a couple of thousand billion and send to Ukraine’s city treasury (there should be a bit more control than that…). The only thing not going according to plan here is actually that Ukraine strikes back and even that they are now trying to fix by Western leaders starting to hint that Putin must get a consolation prize.
—
The world will be a better place if this octopus of terror and influence that exists all over the world disappears.
20:08
Yes, he painted quite a dark picture, unusual. Yesterday we looked at Popasna and could conclude that it will be a bubble that will deflate over time. Severodonetsk is a Ukrainian bubble and on the wrong side of the river so I consider that there is no strategic value in holding it if the situation becomes untenable. Lysychansk is a large city with a river to the east and fields around and will not fall. If they leave Severodonetsk, Ukraine is doing exactly what they would in the pocket/bow north of Horlivka and giving up terrain to save lives. In the worst case, they will probably wade across the river on floating things and leave all heavy equipment, in some places it is 30m wide.
—
Now there are some arguments that then you have no foothold on the eastern side of the Siversky Donets but then you miss that Ukraine will in a while cross the Oskil river north of Izyum and be on the “right side” of the Siversky Donets so letting Severodonetsk go is really no biggie. Russian forums will be completely ecstatic but we’ll have to take that.
20:31
I’ll bet five hundred that 2 armored brigades and 2 mech brigades are ready for combat.
They probably have extras of everything. The 46th Air Assault brigade has also been dormant…
Now I throw around a figure of 50 brigades but that’s for effect, maneuver brigades in reserve are about 8 and then 2-3 should have guard duty at the northern front.
There are some NG brigades circled in reserve which I interpret as them being capable. The armor that became surplus in the armored brigades can probably be moved there and increase capability.
There is no shortage of tube artillery and the air force can strike as well.
—
This while the Russians are bleeding out at Severodonetsk, Popasna, Lysman and some other place.
10:33
The Russians continue to die at the highest pace, towards the end yesterday someone wrote that they had seen BMPs with reduced infantry and that could explain why fewer Russians are dying than vehicles being knocked out, 1 BTG/day is really a lot no matter how you measure it.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1528634212563271681/photo/1