11:02
You can hardly squeeze more into that pocket/arc north of Horlivka because just as you say you have to get supplies forward and not everyone can stand and squeeze under the same tree.
They have sent in another airborne brigade and moved the brigades that stood west of Izyum eastward and you probably have an armored brigade as a fire brigade down there.
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To relieve the pressure, you have to increase the tempo on the flanks instead and hope for a breakthrough but you have to pre-fight heavily and then have the brigades for night fighting in place otherwise the losses become too high.
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Simply put, the Russians gathered almost the same number as the February 24 offensive but have given up 40% of the frontline and focused the attacks on a couple of points so there is probably quite a significant disadvantage in some places for Ukraine. Unfortunately, they cannot leave parts of their border unguarded since the Russians have the advantage of being able to do whatever they want on their territory so far.
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The Russians have at least surprised me in their willingness to die here, I thought May 9 would be the start of a de-escalation but clearly they want Luhansk Oblast, there are invaluable potatoes there.
11:06
Yes, that is probably the only way forward, the Russians seem quite persistent and easily provoked so if they are offered the opportunity to crawl back and build up for a future war, they will do it. Still struggling a bit with your name 🙂
Unfortunately, many Ukrainians will die and I agree with those in the thread who want a bit easier intervention from the West, like taking over guard duty on the northern front, clearing the Black Sea, and whatever else has been aired in the thread. Trying for a deal when you know the Russians do not follow agreements even if it would be good for them is not going to work.
11:36
Russia will stop at the provincial border of Luhansk Oblast as that is what they want provided the Ukrainian army does not turn around and flee but we have not seen that so far.
Then Putin will proclaim victory and many Western leaders will pressure Ukraine to give up their territory for freeeeedom.
The Russians break agreements even if they are good agreements for themselves so they will just build up their capability and jump on Ukraine again.
Ukraine is very clear that they will take back their land by force and the UK + USA can probably deliver enough material. Already now there is a sufficient reserve to go on the offensive in the north and south when the opportunity arises.
You probably don’t need every square meter of your territory but can defend where defense is appropriate but out of Donbass proper and Crimea the Russians probably have to go. Crimea is more to retake your land than a staging area for the Russians since it should be easy to defend but Donbass probably has to be retaken to get a more easily defensible border.
13:49
If they had had the goal to take eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper and started with air, artillery, helicopters, airborne landings, and armored wedges followed by encirclements of cities instead of going towards the cities, it would have looked different.
The entire eastern front would have had its supply routes cut off and Russia would only have needed to hold the crossings over the Dnieper.
That would probably have been enough with what they had if they had not attacked in Donbass but south and north of it.
Then Zelensky would have had the choice of mass capitulation, bloodbath retreat, or negotiations.
Now the Russians did everything wrong instead which is good.
13:52
Just answered that below and yes, just as you say, eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper would probably have been negotiated away now.
A huge mistake was crossing the Dnieper, they should have surrounded Mariupol and continued north towards Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to cut the supply routes. Then from the north go past the cities and encircle them and close the crossings up to Kyiv.
After that, it was just a question of retreat, capitulation, or negotiation. Ukraine had quite a few heavy brigades west of the Dnieper at the start so they probably had one of the scenarios to lose the eastern part of the country.
19:41
This has probably been up before but now that the Russians have had some respect and the West has treated them fairly, they have on their own made sure they become pariahs again. Reagan apparently collected Soviet jokes that he liked to tell often and they were all about how badly things worked in the Soviet Union and what a police state it was. Not much has actually changed, the stripes never come out it seems and the West has still been very forgiving over the Soviet era.
https://youtu.be/mN3z3eSVG7A
19:49
This is huge if it is true, which it seems to be. First, empty barns and they will use these for defense. Second, it tells us that the 24 BTGs they seemed to have at the southern front are ground-down BTGs rotated there for defense. These are war-weary BTGs that have had their spearhead knocked out and are now being made defense-capable by filling up the tank companies.
Those who had combat value have been sent to Severodonetsk and Popasna for the offensive there.
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Then the question remains how it looks at Kherson because there should be the last VDV, Marine infantry, and Spetsnaz + some guards and all sorts. Have some of the better BTGs been rotated away? We hear about things like this all the time and still, there is talk about having to give the Russians Crimea and Donbass.
19:58
Considering how it looks in the tank depots and the old general-pilot who was shot down, there is probably a shortage of everything including advanced weapons. The fact is that according to the most conservative estimates including myself, the Russians would have 1000 tanks left of T72 and some better but maybe some T72A are still running and now we have photographic evidence of T62..
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There are rumors of older helicopter models flying and we have seen ancient GRAD pieces that were taken out of service 10 years ago and tube artillery that was a notch above WW2 on wheels to Ukraine. I have seen some film of BTR-60 and that old armored car that came before but it is always hard to know what is real and if it is some museum piece the Donbass rebels have fixed up.
What we saw after the river crossing, however, was BMP-1 and MTLB in some of the films.
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The divisions have simply exported everything that could be sold except for the parade battalion and a larger reserve in the nearest depot so they pass inspections and now they have burned through that.
21:15
This one is relatively simple – “hello Russia, you are blocking 60% of the world’s wheat, so this is a matter for the world, if you open fire or physically block a single international ship (Ukrainian ones can stay in port) then we will open fire, capiche.” If they do that, the UK has the world with them because the world wants to eat, it’s just a matter of getting PR on the subject so the world understands.
Not even China wants a billion hungry Chinese people on the streets.
23:28
Exciting, so they deployed 92 Mechanized and 81st Airmobile first, they probably got an artillery battalion each maybe?
That explains why Kharkov and Izyum took a hit. Then they also got a “GPS tip” for dumb ammunition so they can lob them in within a few meters when given coordinates for fixed targets.
Excalibur maybe only existed for 4 pieces.
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810 naval brigade, which had the entire staff knocked out, is also sulking behind the southern front, so 6 BTGs out of 24 there are knocked out units without combat value and there are probably more, so I took a look and the 3 BTGs from the 19th Motorized are probably crushed as well
10:53
Ukraine feels a bit like a warmed-up Don Frye now and as long as they have brigades in reserve, which they obviously do, the situation is not as depressing as many feel. Ukraine will ride out this storm as well and can then choose the time and place to go on the offensive. High losses in UAVs for the Russians are good because then their reconnaissance capability disappears.
We will surely see a buildup up at the northern front ahead, a few more brigades will appear on the maps.
There are many signals that the Russians are starting to have problems with equipment, key personnel, and motivation.
I think Ukraine is showing strength and this is strength https://youtu.be/p0AdK5XoS_c
The Russians are not much strength more like this https://youtu.be/9B1M3IPVcXs