14:24
It’s the one the blogger posted at 09:38, just saw it now and that is armor on the move so offensive is under development 🙂
Now I’m a bit curious because that is very dense forest and down by Kherson or the southern front where the 5th Tank brigade can be assumed to be messing around there are open fields, there is no major forest there as far as I can see…
—
If one guesses, what we see in the film is the 1st Tank brigade and the place is somewhere in the forest area NW of Izyum going up towards Kharkov, that long forest belt previously inhabited by the mech brigade and airborne before they were moved further east.
Not the forest belt SW of Izyum just to clarify so no one thinks I’ve completely lost it.
—
It fits quite well with an earlier official statement that an offensive would be launched near Kharkov, Kherson and Izyum and the only place it hasn’t hit yet is Izyum.
Pyrodny Park maybe? One scenario the thread has considered is if they would try to strike at the bridge at Borova and deny the entire Izyum offensive retreat northwards.
14:37
Right now they are not doing that. A general just died there and that usually means it’s hard to get the soldiers forward who are sulking in the trenches and you have to send in someone with lots of stars to point with the whole hand.
If you click like crazy on deepstatemap they have lost terrain around Popasna in the last 10 days, so they are not advancing at all. Now they have probably also run out of VDV and marine infantry.
—
This leads us to the northern part of this ingenious pincer movement that will win the war for Putin, to take Siversk by crossing the Siversky Donets on 4-5 perfectly straight and freshly painted bridges and in a cloud of dust and adrenaline push forward and roll over Siversk by sheer momentum. Considering they lost 40 IFVs every time they tried, the Russians probably need to scrape together 400-500 armor to have a chance to succeed and that will probably be IS2 and T34 in the worst case.
Alternatively, maybe they have to dust off old tactics like human wave with the cooks and drivers who are probably the ones left alive.
—
What is a bit funny is that the Russians themselves have realized that Popasna is stuck because they are preparing for a couple more river crossings. This is perfect because then the last offensive capacity north of the Siversky Donets goes away just as Ukraine’s Izyum offensive starts. Siversk will not fall by the way.
—
About here you remember that less than two weeks ago there was a doomsday mood even in this thread so it’s good to calibrate from time to time so everyone knows that the Russians will not succeed in any encirclement of Severedonetsk or Lysychansk.
14:39
Additional note here that I was of the opinion that they were about to leave Severedonetsk, that retreat trick Ukraine kept very nicely to themselves 🙂
14:45
We were at that infamous course in the river valley in winter and were sliding around on skis and freezing like hell.
One exercise was that we lined up and got to watch B-company and one of the first tests with German MLRS. We were greatly surprised by the German crew who either had beards or tactical mustaches and were quite long-haired and very relaxed.
We were running around bullied and completely terrified as usual.
—
First B-company fired a salvo and there were a couple of bursts and you thought it was cool. Then the MLRS fired a half salvo I think and the entire target area just disappeared in smoke. Now to my point it was an armored vehicle and they folded down hatches for the windshield and side window and then the rockets went straight ahead in the vehicle’s direction as far as I remember but I might be wrong, I do remember clearly that they folded down the hatches. Then I managed to spit snuff on a major’s boots and got the scolding of my life.
14:48
If you look at FIRMS it is starting to get quite red NW of the city of Kherson itself whatever that might mean.
The rear is getting hit as usual and the other focus point is the breakthrough at Daydiv Bridge.
Could the Russians in panic have weakened their defense around the city of Kherson to plug the hole at Daydiv Bridge and Ukraine is attacking there?
15:18
Since there has been some discussion about Ukraine being worn out after all the videos of platoons-companies-battalions reading a message that they cannot continue fighting I thought I’d post a very deceptive pro-Russian video but with the purpose of showing who actually have poor morale. The blogger can remove it if it conflicts with the thread’s rules.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RRdxyIYOjk
—
If you go about 5 minutes into the video everything about morale declining and what we see is territorial defense to a large extent which in some cases is poorly equipped and in other cases has okay weapons but looks very worn out. Territorial defense is basically at the bottom of the scale if you want. Kind of like if we in the thread would go to a mob depot a month before the attack and pick up Mauser, M45B, AK4, M59 with cracked boots and then per platoon get a ksp58 and an anti-tank rocket. Then the thread would frog-march to something like Haninge/Jordbro or something that would become an active front line for over three months and you had the lowest priority and constantly had to fight for ammunition. The order was – hold Jordbro.
—
The NG brigades are now quite capable as I understand and can be counted among the maneuver brigades and the army’s brigades are all of high quality. There are volunteer battalions by the dozen and some are probably top tier and others less capable. If you ask me wavering morale is a minor problem in the Ukrainian army and those who have had enough are us in the thread, kind of.
15:31
I am on the same thought as MickeUppsala here that if Ukraine keeps up the pressure they will be fully occupied plugging holes and then trying to retake something they lost like at Daydiv Bridge and then they have to go out on the road and expose themselves. All reserves left in the condition they are have to be thrown into a battle stream instead of building up for another hit. At Kherson it was the cooks and sailors from Crimea.
—
One thing they just have to try because they never learn is a limited attempt against Sumy or Kharkov which will end like everything else so far, in chaos. It’s just what they have graspable and their version of a Kherson – trying to strike a weak flank that will then not be weak at all.
15:36
I spoke with a power plant consultant who works with this and he confirmed it.
It’s completely freaking insane, it really boils.
Something else that’s interesting is that the environmental movement in Europe and Sweden rarely complains about Russian gas.
Swedish hydropower, on the other hand, they want to get rid of.
—
Now that nuclear power is half gone, hydropower is the only base power left and if you shut it down, there is nothing left on a windless day but that’s probably what some want.
15:40
HIMARS can stand at a comfortable distance under a potent LV umbrella and lob towards recon targets 24/7 and every shot is a hit. Counter-artillery radar has also been delivered in sufficient quantities. And there are more drones than Ukraine can manage to fly.
If they move often enough, they can probably survive the war.
However, you need enough of them; the first delivery was quite few if I understood correctly.
15:43
It’s that guy with the long name I never understand in the thread who has some knowledge about them but they seem like the worst of the worst where sadism, cruelty and outright murder have been encouraged and they have been deployed in countries that are falling apart. They have committed terrible violence against civilians and been well paid and treated like kings.
That Wagner is now going and dying is almost as good as the Chechens being wiped out.
16:09
XSI33, damn I had to google, I always thought it was the BTR-60 that had a light machine gun and a small round turret and later variants had heavier armament and weapon platform turrets.
—
I think it might have been the BTR-80 with the simpler turret because it was definitely the small round turret with a light machine gun. The reason I think so is that I wonder if I could even get in/out of the hatch on a BTR-70 but it was one of those two, this was at Kvarn/Borensberg. The rear door on later versions was something I picked up from the demonstration but of course, that wasn’t correct either.
16:15
Now it was an exercise in central Ukraine which was a bit boring but the area I was thinking of was the forest areas south of Kharkiv.
17:28
Answering myself before XSI33 jumps in that it could of course have been 121, I don’t remember…
19:23
Now that it’s dragging on, I’ve started thinking a bit like you but taken a different path. I remember the Yugoslav war like it was yesterday and especially Srebrenica where the UN got guarantees and the Dutch left. There were some people I knew who had been on the UN mission and Ulf Henricsson gave lectures to us and other officers.
The EU considered it their war and did nothing, the UN wanted peace and got constant guarantees from the Serb side which they broke and it was very bloody.
The USA came in late to that match but when the Croats kicked off it went very fast and then it was mountains and fortified lines.
Putin is probably the one who has had the course with the Serbs on how to never keep a promise.
—
The UN is completely marginalized in this conflict and the USA + the West have trained Ukraine since 2014 and prepared for this war. Each country’s military already had ready weapons packages which they then activate as diplomats and politicians unlock them. It’s not like they just scramble everything quickly, this is prepared.
From 2001-2003 the USA started training Ukrainian officers I believe so the officer corps now has 20 years of Western thinking.
The free West hoped for peace until the very end but prepared for war. No one threatened Putin or Russia, the fact is that the only reason they can deploy their entire army in Ukraine is because no one else threatens them with war.
Some say the USA wants the war to last as long as possible, I think they want a Ukrainian victory as soon as possible, probably everyone except Putin, Orban and Macron.
—
I think seeing Mariupol and Bucha is enough to understand that there is no turning back, you simply have to go all in and either die or have liberated your country. Now it is Ukraine that decides and they want to retake their country by force so the free West must continue to support. Some kind of brokered peace now is pointless because Putin will just keep killing the Ukrainian population until he is denied the possibility. He has built and sent mobile crematoria to Ukraine and you probably won’t get any closer to the Nazis’ ovens.
—
This is deeply tragic and I remember how people were affected by the Yugoslav war and it happens again despite all promises to the contrary. What has happened here though is that the free West acted directly instead of after several years. What could possibly be a suitable escalation is a no-fly zone over Ukraine maintained by the USA, for example. With the diplomatic route, unfortunately, it probably requires a tactical nuclear weapon before that can happen I guess. Then I fully agree it becomes very war-technical but we all watch the videos on pro-Russian sites of the rotting corpses in the fields and get today’s reality check. If Russia escalates with something big and the red line is crossed then I guess all valuable targets in Russia must be hit with long-range weapons like with Serbia.
—
Then there is quite threatening rhetoric in Russian media about how all of Europe shall be part of the great Slavic empire etc. so if you think Putin would be satisfied with a Ukrainian victory/compromise you will probably be disappointed. Historically, this type of dictatorship once started has never stopped unless they have been defeated.
19:31
A fair amount of Ukraine’s losses are probably also the local home guards unfortunately or when an NG brigade gets a feeling and tries to go on the offensive. It is unfortunate that they have had to defend areas that have been focal points for the Russians’ offensives. They are probably also many of the prisoners because when the maneuver brigades get orders and retreat, they stay in their small community or try to sneak out on foot or in civilian cars. However, Ukraine has helped them in Severodonetsk and rotated them against regular units.
19:56
Someone else can probably explain better, the National Guard is 7 brigades I think and they are probably becoming good enough to be considered part of the maneuver brigades. They are infantry with assigned armor per company or something like that, I think they have distributed the little they have.
TD is kind of stationed in the town they live in and have gotten what is left, the pro-Russians always post those videos of older weapons and older men and that is TD. They have been tasked with defending a town and I think they are placed in a geographic area with the order to hold the positions.
23:26
Now we know, Ukraine has 700,000 men under arms. I understand that not all are in maneuver brigades, but they have continuously topped up, so they are not empty shells like the Russians’ BTG and just under 50 in number if you count the NG brigades.
—
Actually, no one has really managed to present how many Russians are in Ukraine nowadays, but if we go by offensive capacity, obviously not very many because it is quite calm in most places and they are getting beaten in Severodonetsk.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3501080-nearly-700000-ukrainian-servicemen-taking-part-in-war-with-russia.html
10:51
We drove a 122 at some point, incredibly easy to drive, managed Xm wide ditches at full speed and the driver has very good visibility all around.
The sight was also easy to use with excellent zoom or whatever it’s called and with IR (I think that’s what it’s called) for night fighting or daytime so you can see heat contours.
Then, as everyone writes, the vehicle commander can search for targets in the rotating sight and when he finds a target he presses a button so the cannon and the gunner’s sight turn there.
Fast turret rotation, ammo in a box behind the turret, nice spaciousness.
—
If it becomes a dog fight, it has a completely superior reaction time, the crew remains combat effective longer, superior sight and survives better when hit and is harder to get damaging hits on. Good vehicle.