11:13
Russian gas is something the environmental movement has no problem with, but Swedish hydropower is supposed to be shut down.
I think it’s about where countries stand on the scale under the USA, which is the number one scapegoat.
If China or Russia does something, they are victims of capitalism and not criticized, but if you start a small hydropower plant in Norrland, it immediately triggers backlash on everything and front pages in newspapers from prominent environmental activists who are completely red in the face.
12:19
Damn is probably the only thing you can say. According to Girkin, the Russians have managed to cross the Siversky Donets, near Bilohorivka if one may guess. I’m not going to jump on this just yet, but that was exactly what was not supposed to happen and is probably a fairly natural part of the Russian plan; they have conducted proper assaults from the south while simultaneously crossing the Siversky Donets with a sufficiently large force so that the city is threatened with encirclement.
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This is a defensive line that Ukraine really wants to hold, but with the risk of encirclement, there will be a tactical retreat, and this is almost a technical knockout, which would be really unfortunate.
A counteroffensive would be nice, but the Russians have really pooled everything here, so Ukraine is probably not numerically superior.
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The next defensive line we have also guessed is Siverks – Bakhmut. What’s a bit unfortunate is that then the Russians have Luhansk Oblast and can focus on other areas, Kherson for example.
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That said, I’m waiting until the Twitter gods write something here, but it’s not in Ukraine’s interest to be early with such a demoralizing message, and they are probably waiting for the result of counterattacks before confirming anything.
12:23
After such a big event, it’s like with Moscow, for a couple of days the PR spinners contradict each other before they get their ranks straight and a version that they think works. Then you get this kind of attempt to cover up.
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This is how the Ministry of Defense thinks it happened, which is of course what the responsible general has said 🙂
“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to strike at military facilities on the territory of Ukraine. On June 27, in the city of KREMENCHUG, Poltava region, the Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a strike with high-precision air-based weapons on hangars with weapons and ammunition received from the United States and European countries, in the area of the Kremenchug plant of road vehicles. As a result of a high-precision strike, Western-made weapons and ammunition, concentrated in the storage area for further shipment to the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbas, were hit. The detonation of stored ammunition for Western weapons caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping center located next to the plant.”
12:39
There you go…
So they have completely uncritically and unchallenged repeated Russia’s version when there is VIDEO EVIDENCE that it is a shopping mall that was bombed and even the President of Ukraine has spoken out. I know we are getting jaded about the fifth columnists in the media and that there are two sides in the thread with strong opinions, but this should prompt an investigation in my opinion because it is very serious. It is participation in Russian psyops by media that a large part of Sweden’s population considers reliable information and they have a responsibility. G7 has actually gone out and condemned it as a terrorist attack…
12:41
Double-checked and sure enough, it’s on AB…
14:07
AlexK, this quote from you is quite important because if the Russians had worked like that, they would have won the war already, but now they are being drawn like flies straight into the cities, “If the Nazi Russians don’t start doing what was done at the end of WW2 where they completely bypassed defensive positions that were left cut off and dealt with them later.”
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If the Russians take Luhansk Oblast and Ukraine does not manage to go down and snatch Melitopol, it’s a pretty bleak situation where the Russians over time push in more reserves until they start attacking again and Ukraine can’t push them back.
If we end up in that situation, Western materiel is ABSOLUTELY crucial, Ukraine must get exactly as much as that dizzyingly long list says.
15:06
Today was a sad day (without having anything confirmed yet, so I’m a bit ahead) because pro-Russian forums are quite definitive that Lysychansk is in the making here. Now there should be Ukrainian counterattacks before this is decided unless Ukraine has already decided on a tactical retreat back to the Siversk – Bakhmut line.
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I’m starting to get the opinion that the West needs to increase its contributions very soon here because if Ukraine is struggling to gain momentum in Kherson (there seems to be a pause in fighting at least) because the Russians have been able to bring in reserves in sufficient numbers while taking Lysychansk and at the same time starting to get their reserves and, one might guess, workshops for heavy materiel operational, then they will be able to keep pace with a Ukrainian capability increase that at least allows them to go on the defensive.
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The missile attacks are almost crazy that the Russians get to continue undisturbed. We ridicule this in the thread as playgrounds and swimming pools, but in Russian forums it’s weapons depots, refineries, and staging areas. The truth is of course somewhere in between, and the Russians are knocking out high-value targets for Ukraine as well, it’s just that we don’t discuss Ukrainian losses (I just broke the rule like Kristian Luuk).
At the same time, the West is messing around about whether to allow Xkm in range or not and delivers a pathetic 4 HIMARS systems, they could roll out over a hundred systems in a week with Globemaster and drown Ukraine in ammunition…
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Now Ukraine got a mosaic of Western surplus materiel to carry out this offensive and it’s probably not over yet, but all reserves at Kherson have basically been committed to battle and there are probably two mechanized brigades and 1st Tank brigade left as operational reserve. If it doesn’t get better than this, there is only one way forward – an absolutely MASSIVE buildup of Ukraine’s capabilities across all branches very quickly. They need a few reliable models and not the old surplus materiel they are dying in now, the French have some PTGB vehicles as old as the M113 that they are going to send. It’s really sad to see how happy the Ukrainians are about the M113, it’s a glorified milk carton.
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Now I’m not so naive as to not understand that many Western leaders are quick turncoats and that no one likes a loser, so the risk is of course that support decreases when it should increase. What Western leaders must also be able to read is partly what the Russians really want, to regain Eastern Europe and that the “Slavic empire should stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” But also that if the Russians look like winners, there are a whole bunch of countries sitting on the fence wanting to see which way the wind blows, China for example. We actually don’t know what the Russians have saved here, only that they are sending second-rate equipment to Ukraine and I touched on that yesterday about the Baltics but the thread was quite unanimous 🙂
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For Sweden’s part, they should send all Archers except maybe one battery and 80% of Strf90 and then place new orders.
Now Ukraine is training on F-16s and there is a purpose, but they need to get them into combat as soon as possible and then a few models of everything, IFV, MBT, artillery, etc. There is nothing wrong with the Ukrainian soldier at all, but he needs weapons to fight. I am of the opinion that a no-fly zone can be introduced over at least western Ukraine maintained by NATO aircraft and preferably eastern Ukraine too, but maybe it hasn’t been politically unlocked yet?
That the Poles have not been allowed to guard the border with Belarus is also unfortunate because then Ukraine could have gotten those extra 4-5 brigades that might have made a difference.
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Right now the free world is actually facing a crossroads where we either do a Nagasaki with Russia and the world’s regimes feel it would hurt to wage war and keep in line or an escalation that will drag the world into a war. As soon as China starts acting up in Asia and the other 10+ rogue states start moving, NATO’s and the free world’s capabilities will be stretched quite a bit. Of course, there will be a victory in the end when the free world has accelerated enough, but at an ENORMOUSLY higher price than today. It is actually now that one must act decisively and it is no longer possible to hide behind each other because there is an opposing pole to the free West and Russia has just thrown down the white glove here against us.
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The Siversk – Bakhmut line is quite okay but the city of Siversk can be attacked from three sides if things go badly, so the northern flank is a weakness. Bakhmut is a well-spiked hedgehog. The line after that is Slovyansk/Kramatorsk down to the ceasefire line at Horlivka and is probably a better defense really if it comes to that.
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By the way, HIMARS has arrived at the eastern front 🙂
16:18
You also have quite different deliveries from different countries, and those bordering Russia or that have been Russian satellite states basically send everything they can. In Sweden’s case, they could very well send artillery and IFVs because half of Europe is doing that.
Why they don’t do it, only the government knows, but if the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and the entire East are doing it, there is hardly any reason to hold back?
Now the defense has also placed an order for 25 (I think) Archers, and they probably do more good in Ukraine grilling Russian BTGs.
16:29
Most struck by how violently Russia is advancing in this war and really want to see a quick end for purely humanitarian reasons, but the West is not fast enough with deliveries. My interpretation was that as long as the Russians were occupied in Luhansk Oblast, there was an opening to come up with something clever that could deliver a chess move, but the Russians have poured in a lot of reserves at Kherson and the southern front, reserves that no one has really reported on but which we have guessed in the thread have been smuggled in.
This damn war is a national trauma for Ukraine, and it’s sad that the free world is not going all in because the longer it goes on, the deeper the scars it leaves.
The last thing anyone wanted was for this to be the warm-up and that 5 million dead Ukrainians later the Russians give up. The amount of weapons is directly correlated to the time this war will last, and since the soldiers and motivation exist, the decisive factor is a broad capability upgrade of all weapon technology in all branches, and I’m so damn irritated that the West isn’t opening the warehouses. It’s July now, and they have been dumping surplus equipment in Ukraine since March; a little damn respect should be shown because people are dying here.
Of course, it took four years in Yugoslavia when the EU debated how strongly to word the protest note before the US stepped in and sorted everything out, so it has been even worse than this, but it’s sad to see.
16:35
They trained about 350 soldiers on the Haubits 777 quite quickly and should be able to do exactly the same with HIMARS, I think, and above all should have started earlier?
Four are just a symbolic gesture. I also understand that ammunition is the bottleneck and not the platforms, so “100” was more a description that they need more.
They also need MBTs and decent IFVs; running around in M113s and some damn Renault armored cars is almost embarrassing.
They should also have trained on F-16s soon, but there I understand that you don’t learn to fly the plane in a week 🙂
17:50
Yes, your second to last paragraph is interesting because you also have to factor in all the destroyed ammunition depots, some of which have been very large, and that affects the Russians’ access to artillery ammunition in the short and long term. There are also many explosions in Russia, and one must assume these are high-value targets like ammunition. Now we may not see the same obvious embarrassment as with the T62 artillery, but it is more spread out over the entire front and less intense.
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Yes, over time the Russians naturally wear down everything else being equal, that is, assuming China or other rogue states don’t jump into the ring and start swinging; it’s mostly the time factor that made me pessimistic. Many Ukrainian lives will be lost before this is won, and if more weapons had been sent in early, these lives would have been saved.
17:59
Don’t know if it has flown by, but the G7 has asked China to pull Russia’s ear and leave Ukraine so that the 2014 borders are respected.
I think that was a pretty good effort by the G7, which usually can’t agree on anything at all.
18:03
Qanon was quite a clever way to get the so-called “alt-right” to support Putin. These are normally functioning people who seriously believe that Ukraine are the Nazis and the Russians the liberators, and who believe many other things.
Qanon is a phenomenon that should be researched because it became a serious movement and people radicalized quickly. I also see the same brushstrokes in the “FSB letters,” so maybe it was a Russian psyops after all 🙂
18:23
Yes and no, when they managed to shut down nuclear power, even I could figure out that electricity prices would become more expensive. I have 300m2 to heat and find today’s electricity prices not so fun. Not an expert but understand there must be a sluggish controllable mass, and wind and solar power don’t offer that before we have batteries/storage on an industrial scale.
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Then to be fair, I was just as annoyed about the Nuon deal, acquired nuclear power in Germany and the coal power plants bought in Germany because I understood what would happen. It was already known that Germany would shut down nuclear power and that coal power would be taxed.
All three purchases have been written down quite hard. The coal power plants were sold for 200 million SEK to the Czech Republic.
19:09
The latest from Gammelsvenskby,
“The situation in Gammalsvenskby is tense. It is unsettled around the village and in the country at large. The Russian army continues its unpredictable heavy shelling of civilian targets in Ukraine.
It is still difficult to keep in touch with loved ones, as Ukrainian internet and mobile networks are down. But there are some channels we can reach through.
More than half of the population is believed to have left the village, so only about 1,000 people remain. Most have gone to friends or relatives in non-occupied Ukraine, and some abroad to Poland, Sweden, Croatia, or Portugal.
There is food, electricity, and thus water. There is a shortage of medicines and hygiene products.
The occupying forces have visited a couple of times, searched houses, and interrogated villagers. At least one person is captured. They are mainly looking for men who have previously been conscripted into the Ukrainian army in Donbass.
May these war crimes and terror end!
We continue to support and help the villagers.”
10:27
Learned from Kos that HIMARS ammunition disperses 180,000 tungsten balls that spread like a heavy rain over the target area. It creates a nice area effect that probably renders everything except the latest tanks unusable. A garrison behind the combat zone with staging areas for their armor, artillery, trucks, etc. should then be almost a perfect target after the ammunition depots. Now Ukraine probably has a window of a few weeks before everything is moved further back, but then they have ToshkaU, albeit with slightly worse accuracy. You understand that the Russians are sulking and shooting at shopping malls because this is quite a difficult situation for them. Add to this all sabotage and partisan activity…