14:18
Something like that I think, to get beaten by Ukraine, humiliation. To be beaten by NATO, betrayal, a stab in the back, to bring along BRIICS, etc.
One thing I have thought about is that yes, right now it’s easy to win against Russia, not invade Russia but defeat them militarily.
Two years from now when the Russians have fully reorganized and if they get parts of BRIICS on their side, it might be a bit harder if NATO and the EU haven’t switched to a war economy.
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Therefore, Russia must be defeated in our time’s Nagasaki, preferably on its own but with support in small portions if needed. Like Poland taking over the border with Belarus, no-fly zones in western Ukraine, protecting the Black Sea, etc., and if necessary, one can increase – losing and Russia winning is simply not in the equation.
16:23
When it comes to Lysychansk, one probably has to be quite clear that Ukraine would have held that fortress if they could. Now I have been complaining about this for 3-4 days and there’s nothing officially communicated so it’s a bit early, but I have interpreted this as that the main force has been moved out and they are continuing with SOF and smaller remaining units. Also, for 3-4 months I have explained to everyone with two ears that THIS is terrain that should be sold for grilled BTGs but it went a bit fast, it was some kind of technical knockout which was a bit unfortunate and it cost the Russians 4-6 smashed BTGs when it should have taken significantly more; it was more of a half-day grilling rather than a long session.
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I interpreted the whole process as the Russians throwing in all armored BTGs and whatever else they had (motorized has taken over from naval infantry and VDV) west of the city and pushed forward up to Verkhnokamyanka and there it stopped. However, they got closer to Lysychansk east of that. Exactly when Ukraine decided to abandon the city I don’t know but it happened quickly after Zolote, we know that.
I have also discussed that the anchor for the southern front in Lysychansk was Verkhnokamyanka and if that is threatened then there would be a tactical retreat from Lysychansk which is exactly what played out, unfortunately.
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For me, this suggests that the blue team was a bit worn out because there was nothing wrong with the defensive position, height, nice fields of fire and good buildings for defense, in a horseshoe with a defensive line at the back. When doing a Google recon, Severodonetsk was considerably harder and they held it for months, the key was always not to be enveloped from the south which became some kind of domino effect when Zolote fell, it was like the plug was pulled. Girkin has written that Ukraine has fortified the line Siversk – Bakhmut but with “new units” which suggests they are rested reserves. Is it the mechanized brigades and 1st Tank brigade, Territorial, national battalions or newly formed ones we don’t know, who knows?
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Now the offensive from the north down towards Siversk – Slovyansk has been somewhat half-hearted and the big “stormings” have been against Severodonetsk and from Popasna towards Lysychansk. Those battalions are probably quite worn out now but there are 30-35 BTGs in varying condition that can push towards Slovyansk and Siversk and in between, Mykolaivka for example.
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If one is to speculate a bit, Siversk is exposed to attacks from three directions and Mykolaivka needs to be held, it is probably under constant storming attempts now (that’s a word used more and more which I interpret as the intensity being quite high). If they get behind the Siversk – Bakhmut line it will be another technical knockout and then they have to pull back to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk – the ceasefire line down at Horlivka.
I don’t think the Russians will attack from the east towards Siversk – Bakhmut because they have exhausted their BTGs, they will come from the north and try to get behind that defensive line with some more rested BTGs and try to push Ukraine out of it as well.
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So now Ukraine needs artillery, air defense, okay with armor and preferably air support so they don’t get pushed out from one prepared defense to another. It’s possible to withdraw to Slovyansk as well but then the Russians will try to push down from Izyum so you’re just moving the problem westward. The further east the Russians focus is, the better.
Then in parallel, their maneuver brigades need to get decent IFVs and MBTs so they don’t die in glorified milk cartons and Renault cars. You don’t need only one model but brigades in the same geographic area should probably have the same IFVs and MBTs for maintenance reasons and then on some other front section run another model.
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Artillery is starting to get somewhat organized and that’s good but a serious capability increase is needed in all branches including the air force. The only thing you don’t need is well-motivated soldiers and in quite a few wars that’s where it falls short so Ukraine has a good foundation. The Russians have also sneaked in a lot of reserves over time and re-equipped completely wiped out BTGs. When we thought they needed rest and recovery, they have simply newly formed them and that goes much faster. Also, they haven’t died yet and can be made to storm across a potato field once or twice before they’re spent.
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As often said, as many strf90s as possible and a bunch of Archers would make a big difference for a couple of maneuver brigades that would get to wage war with decent equipment. Also think about the air defense version against Russian helicopters…
If Sweden sends heavy materiel it would make a difference on the battlefield and above all it would send a signal to many other countries to send more. We should always be role models in everything so why can’t we be that here too when it really matters for real.
17:23
Yes, that’s how it is, the Russians will starve outside the gates of Slovyansk 🙂
The logic in general is probably under pressure now for the Russians, they have even struck rear deployments, probably running out of ammunition depots to burn. Then some derailed trains on top of that.
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The “northern” front, that is those who are trying to push down towards Siversk, Slovyansk and Mykolaivka, according to Argus is supplied from a small place called Svatove. There was an explosion there the other day which was fun, proving that Argus knew what he was talking about at least.
All supply from Belgorod – Vovchansk – XXX – Kupiansk – Izyum is quite heavily hit so they have probably already rerouted some via Svatove.
17:37
I also want to see the strf90 in real combat, I have a thought that it is a real monster if it gets the chance, low profile, 40mm autocannon, turret machine gun, decent systems and a group of rested shooters with anti-tank rockets and Carl Gustaf. Then imagine if Ukraine could work with a battery of Archer like those open Cesars the French have donated, they could cause quite a lot of damage when all shells hit simultaneously and then they spin around a front section and deliver death. That drone footage that looks like one from a salvo weapon but with a much better hit pattern would impress anyone. The whole world now knows what NLAW and HIMARS are, don’t we want them to know what Archer (really catchy name by the way) is and we’ll have to come up with some internationally viable name for the 90 as well, like; nordic-death.
strf90 has the potential to become a real bestseller now that the whole NATO is to be top-equipped, there are many nice billions at stake here and Sweden has a few months left to act but it’s really time to send heavy weapon systems to Ukraine now. The new black is armor and something that would make a difference, Ukraine probably has more coastal missiles than soldiers soon since every country has sent a few trucks. Heavy transport and they’ll be in Ukraine in a few weeks spreading death.
17:39
When I read that again, yes you really want to see strf90 in Ukraine!
17:50
Yes, and these are not newly conscripted soldiers but combat-ready with conscription experience and maybe also combat experience. 24,000 had been trained by the USA 1.5 months ago so it probably goes fast to train a million men if done broadly in different countries. Then they have to be formed into maneuver units and I’m not sure if these will be newly established units or existing ones but it will be fun to see 🙂
Compare that with the Russians who throw in everything as soon as they’ve signed the papers, then it’s Izyum next with a handful of cartridges.
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I put great hope in the first lend-lease delivery. There should be some fun equipment in there and when we have confirmation that ok IFVs and MBTs are coming then you can lean back and watch Ukraine reclaim its country.
21:42
Tactical retreat. The sources I usually trust have been quite clear here. What I’ve been waiting for is a Ukrainian counterattack to take back the horseshoe but it hasn’t come and I think that means they don’t have that capability right now.
They are probably preparing to defend Siversk – Bakhmut. Now maybe you can run the whole positive part but right here it’s a battle that is won or not and then I thought it was better to be clear.
The reason is of course that the Russians have brought in more reserves than we guessed with the sources we have and have been able to build up an advantage over time that was enough.
22:41
Yes, it would be very desirable if they could get in reserves. Yesterday we saw new Humvees driving into Lysychansk and I interpreted that as a new unit, i.e. a unit that had been in the rear and received new equipment.
They need to push back in all directions and establish a defense along the whole horseshoe. The place with the difficult name looked incredibly easy to defend and it’s strange how they could gain a foothold there so quickly with those fields of fire.
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This is how it is officially commented today, Unfortunately, the Oil Refinery is the key to the whole Lysychansk.
”In the Lysychansk direction, Russian invaders fired at Ukrainian positions near the city of Lysychansk. The enemy is conducting assault operations in the area of Lysychansk Oil Refinery. Russian troops have gained partial success and are maintaining the north-western and south-eastern parts of the plant”.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3519109-ukraine-army-repels-russias-assault-operations-in-three-directions.html
23:40
If you want to see this year’s typo, here it is, it even came up first on Google, now there were dollar signs in the article before someone shouts rupees….
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/biden-announces-800-billion-in-new-weapons-to-ukraine-in-its-war-against-russia-101656605034279.html
23:42
Should have been standalone but fits well under Surtruten’s food seller. I’m a bit old school but thought that stuff that probably described Erdogan was not allowed to be said in today’s debate climate or is it open season on him?
Otherwise the best picture is when he stands behind the flag and the crescent gives him two devil horns and he looks grumpy.
23:49
I guess everyone has seen this one, genuine or not but if it’s from 1904 you can almost say history repeats itself.
https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1542326466398113792#m
11:06
That Finland has joined NATO probably stings quite a bit for Putin. The entire Baltic Sea is now a NATO sandbox and so is the entire northern flank. Fortress Gotland on an island near you, etc.
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During the Cold War, our archipelago was a safe harbor for NATO submarines and now they don’t have to sneak anymore; gaining access to Sweden and Finland in NATO is a very big win. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to join NATO and Russia will be completely encircled.