2022-07-25

11:25

Now that I’ve stayed away for a while, everything is happening at once, in July, like a lottery ticket. It’s a bit unusual not to be three months ahead and paint everything in the most positive light possible.
The week before last, we interpreted it as pre-combat against the Russians in the trench, and last week it was quite cloudy at times, but the Russians in the trench had a hard time and the entire rear behind the southern front lit up like a Christmas tree.
With FIRMS, I understand that these are grass fires, but something must have ignited. When it comes to grass fires, they tend to be fairly short-lived, whereas a base, artillery, or supply fire burns longer. Vodka-soaked scumbags in Russian uniforms probably smolder for a while too (maybe a bit harsh). Looking at Sentinel, you can see extinguished grass fires all around Kherson.
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A quick look this morning shows Armageddon at the Russian lines near Kherson and behind the southern front – VERY lively. If you want to get an idea of what it looked like a month ago, just jump between the dates.
Then – a pleasant occupation, sitting and sipping cheap vodka and planning the next robbery.
Now – nervously glancing over the trench edge to see if that guided 155mm shell is meant for me or not, we remember Gerasimov.
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Now Kyselivka is back on the daily artillery list again, which is encouraging. A thought to the last residents who must find it difficult to keep track of whether they should greet the Russians or the Ukrainians.
According to ISW and the Kherson administration, it is underway or about to start, either still positioning or Ukraine has really advanced near Kherson.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3535635-ukraines-armed-forces-likely-preparing-to-launch-counteroffensive-in-kherson-region-isw.html
So far, it seems calm at the Southern front (or cloudy…) and also just behind it, which I find interesting.
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In the big guessing game, we have imagined the following in the thread – Phase 1: deny the Russians retreat across the Dnipro. Not necessarily to defeat all units west of the Dnipro but to deny them retreat.
Now it seems they have thought a bit more than the thread generals and Patton’s grandmother’s son, they are trying to get the Russians to evacuate Kherson voluntarily but all BTGs “inside” Inhulets are locked in. It’s smart to at least try to avoid leveling the city of Kherson if possible.
What is east of the Dnipro? We have the number of BTGs on paper but not Rosgvardia, 1st Army, etc. Then there’s the entire rear built up for the continued offensive to Odessa. Between 10,000 – 25,000 men have passed by, both numbers are exaggerations if you line them up in a field for PR purposes (When Ukraine does it, it’s okay; when the Russians do it, it’s a war crime, just so we have the legislation clear).
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Cutting the bridge over Danivka is logical and smart. The first sub-goal would be to force the Russians to choose between Kherson or the area inside Inhulets, and now they have solved it even more cleverly, preventing the Russians from moving units at all between the front sections. Snigurivka is probably not passable, one would guess.
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The encirclement at Vysokopilia was after another river crossing over Inhulets up at Arkhangelske. If you ask me, it’s the artillery batteries that fired at Kryvyi Rih that now hang their heads in an encirclement and toss a coin whether to surrender or try the road. According to unit maps, 3 BTGs and an artillery brigade are up there; in reality probably more because there was another encirclement a bit south of that if I understand correctly. There is sluggishness in Russian decision-making, which is good.
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There are still some missing, the train bridge at Kherson and the bridge at Khakovka. Khakovka can also be reached with a blitzkrieg down to Khakovka, for example, you don’t necessarily have to destroy the bridge.
I want to be clear that the Russians are already today denied retreat from Kherson or at least to very heavy losses – Kuwait highway style – if Ukraine so wishes.
Their pontoon bridges are just one HIMARS strike away from being washed out into the Black Sea with the last engineer soldier surfing on top.
All this is almost behind us and has either started or is about to start, what happens next?
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Presumably, the Russians have pushed quite a bit west of the Dnipro and Ukraine has either let them do it or it has happened. Now that trap will probably snap shut soon, or actually it already has but it doesn’t activate until the Russians in the trench realize it’s over.
Behind the entire southern front it is quite empty and then there are BTGs at the southern front in defense that are not strong enough, because too much has been pushed over to Kherson.
The chess move here is not Kherson, it is Melitopol or Mariupol. Mariupol feels like a tall order but Volnovakha is within reach if Ukraine wants.
To achieve that, IN ADDITION to locking in the defenders in Kherson, one can either cross the Dnipro south of Khakovka or at Khakovka, ferry over some companies north of Khakovka, land SOF along the Dnipro or the coast east of the Dnipro, retake Volnovakha.
These are the small disturbances and the only decisive factor is if Ukraine can get across in strength over Khakovka so they don’t get stuck in the N-S bunker line at the Crimean canal, then they can basically move towards Melitopol without having to break through defenses.
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If they don’t get across the Dnipro just like that, the most likely Phase 2 is Tokmak and then Melitopol, and when they have Melitopol it’s a chess move. Then they can let Kherson’s defenders starve to death and play tricks on Crimea until all the Russians voluntarily drive the Kerch bridge eastward. It’s just a matter of time and nothing they need to waste resources on. A bunch of brigades are then freed up for other fun.
Putin will demand human wave attacks against the N-S defensive line at Melitopol but it will of course hold like all other defensive lines have and do. There are nice natural obstacles in the N-S axis between Melitopol and north of Tokmak.
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Then rinse and repeat, either do the same north of Slovyansk – Severodonetsk, a large and less well-defended area but defense is required to the north. That will be rolled up when they cross the Oskil river.
The darkest Donbass will probably come last and that will be starved out by cutting all supplies and then dropping 155mm guided shells on targets and infiltrating everything they have so it will probably fall without having to steamroll it – there is a post-war too and wiping out Donbass doesn’t help future integration.
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Keep an eye on the Stuka effect up near Kherson, HIMARS + guided ammunition + attack pressure + cut bridges can probably cause some unrest in the Russian ranks. It should be able to collapse completely at some point and then it spreads as long as the attack pressure is constant. Then it hits like a tidal wave against the bridges and then they have to run in some other direction before they realize it’s over and sit down and sulk. Those who will run around like little squirrels on cocaine for a while longer are probably all the quisling collaborators who have no way out and who during their last sprint pass lampposts plastered with A4 pages where they see their passport photos with red crosses over them.
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A little surprise is actually that the fires behind the southern front suggest that they are hitting closer to the Dnipro and not behind the southern front. That could be because they intend to cross the Dnipro and get “under” the southern front’s defense. That would be spectacular if anything. The guy who came up with the Davydiv Brid river crossing may have built up some trust capital and managed to pitch this somewhat spectacular battle plan to the command?
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The last thing is probably that the Kalibr platforms in the Black Sea will get a visit pretty soon so they go all the way to the port on the Russian side but unfortunately they have long range. The accuracy probably gets worse the farther away they are, one hopes.
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Take a look at the unit maps and a big hit has now been loaded up at the southern front as well…
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It will be very exciting to see how this develops. No one seriously believes Kherson can be defended anymore and considering what the blue team has built up at the southern front it could go really fast there too.

14:39

Well, that’s my take if the military analyst fails, slow military rap with little movement.

18:43

I probably thought a bit wrong about Kherson and it’s fortunate that the Ukrainian command is competent and considers the civilian population.