19:53
Yes, I actually try to interpret sources as best I can and not jump on early rumors, the big chaos day was enough 🙂
That was a pretty interesting point you wrote which probably is true, they apply pressure and see where there is an opening and push on in one of the scenarios and what the Russians do dictates a bit what happens.
Now the Russians have weakened Izyum for example and immediately Ukraine is there testing and where they get momentum they push on.
—
Something will definitely happen soon at Kherson – Southern front because too much has been built up for it not to. It takes time to build supplies, move down units and group them in starting positions for their respective attacks.
Then the fact that the Russians weaken other front sections is quite revealing. All probing and positioning and attacks for several months have a purpose, a devastating win.
21:34
We agree, the longer the war goes the more crap you wish on the Russians. Every time you think it can’t get worse they trump the latest atrocity enough to raise your eyebrows significantly.
Starting to understand the hatred of communism in the 80s, it was a generation that knew what the Russians were capable of and many in those ranks were Balts who had their families Russified.
We have the constant debate that it doesn’t apply to all Russians (which it doesn’t) but those who don’t support this probably do best to have a very watertight Twitter feed showing they hate Putin because this will stain all Russians for many years to come.
13:15
Looking at the unit maps, Ukraine has gathered artillery and pounding units at the southern front and especially north of Volnovakha. It’s the constant question – why isn’t it going faster at Kherson and why are Russian units allowed in such numbers as have been/are being allowed. HIMARS has been in place for about a month and can demonstrably take out a bridge relatively easily. Now the Russians are ferrying reinforcements over with ferries and pontoon bridges, probably the easiest targets in the whole war but Ukraine is letting it happen.
—
Last week FIRMS suggested that the southern front just east of Khakovka and Kherson was hit by HIMARS and we were discussing a river crossing north of Khakovka in the near future.
The latest 3-day FIRMS data is puzzling, long lines of fires far east of Mariupol in two places. The front lines look calmer. Cloudy again maybe?
The daily artillery list contained some new names I haven’t had time to google, so things have clearly moved.
And to be clear, there ARE offensive operations in Kherson and at the southern front and have been for quite some time.
—
It seems likely that goal 1 was/is to encircle the units west of the Dnieper, not to defeat them in a first step, and that goal 2 is a wedge down towards Tokmak – Melitopol and/or Volnovakha and southwards.
We might not see a decisive moment in Kherson before Ukraine has tricked its way to Tokmak, roughly.
I understand if Ukraine wants to clear the city of Kherson as fast as possible but it doesn’t seem like the Russians agree.
The wildcard is, as always, the stun effect and total collapse, I put my neck out a bit and predicted the end of August for the collapse of the Kherson front so now they damn well better push with HIMARS and 777 overtime here.
—
That ferrying north of Khakovka is starting to feel more and more real too, it would be a nice threat in the rear of the southern front if done at the right time, some infantry battalion accompanied by some mechanized and artillery providing support from the western side of the Dnieper. They go on defense and let the Russians throw their human waves until they get tired.
—
To further unsettle the Russians, there will be local counteroffensives where Ukraine can, like what we now see in Izyum for example, and if it weakens more over in Donbass, then things will move there too. If they get momentum, they push on and announce that it was all part of the big plan and that everything is going exactly according to plan when some battalion commander is improvising wildly 🙂 It seems the Russians are deliberately weakening Izyum and over time Ukraine will push forward to the Oskil river?
—
As some have mentioned, maybe a chess move is enough here. You don’t really dare to let yourself drift off into collapse theories and May 9 was a big eye-opener as good as any but the rubber band is stretched quite far now and eventually it will snap, why not already this autumn?
It will be Zelensky who lets go first and then for a microsecond Putin looks really puzzled before he gets a stinging slap in the face, whimpers quietly and limps off to the bedroom with his head hanging.
—
Parading 10,000 – 15,000 prisoners in a field outside Kherson is probably a gamechanger. Taking Melitopol and forcing a voluntary evacuation of Crimea another. It will break through the noise even in Russia and force a reaction.
—
If it doesn’t, then with HIMARS you can basically create a new Kherson wherever you want. You knock out all supply to a front section until it becomes unsustainable, a deserted island on the brink of starvation. Now maybe the US’s eyes are a bit worse further east but probably you get good enough results. After Kherson and the southern front, you move the whole orchestra to the next front section.
—
There is an enormous inertia among the Russians which doesn’t surprise me much, they just throw in more soldiers who either plug the holes or launch their human wave attacks against completely pointless targets. Command from general level down to individual soldier just pushes on no matter how insane the orders are. I understand it’s war, a marathon, and Russia but this total lack of empathy for their own soldiers is still quite frightening. Then how the Russian army behaves, there were rumors that all the Azov soldiers who came in the last prisoner exchange were castrated but that remained rumors. Now quite likely. With such an army my guess is that the second after the triggering factor, whatever it is, the whole army will lay down their weapons and go home. It will be the other extreme instead of absolutely no one having motivation for war, they are just scared and when the magic wears off, they run.
—
I am quite sure time is a factor here as China is moving a bit, not enough to be worried but over time they will find a crack to try to widen I guess and there are a bunch of other countries sitting on the fence watching. A harsh humiliating defeat with accompanying Russian collapse will force the rogue states into 100 years of passivity if it comes fast enough. NATO’s mythical superiority hasn’t been scrutinized in any way and the only thing they got was that NATO trained and armed Ukraine and then they won over Russia. China probably glances a bit worried towards Tibet and possible NATO visits there so the monks become a threat 🙂