18:46
Already in March, when they were adding up what Russia brought to the party, it seemed unsustainable and in the last month ENORMOUS amounts of maintenance have gone up in smoke and Russian artillery is vanishingly small on FIRMS except as glowing artworks. And the artillery was the ace in the bunker dwarf’s far too short but very expensive sleeve.
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I’ve long thought that the Russians are heading towards zero in their attacks and Ukraine is conserving manpower and therefore the totally crazy Human Wave attacks don’t say much but in the Russian ranks the competence of the infantry must have dropped significantly here, 1st Army has had its battle-hardened units wiped out and all special forces have taken epic losses, this has been discussed quite intensively and there are good presentations on YouTube.
1st shock army had about 90% losses (in their battalions they mobilized, it’s almost ridiculous that we talk in terms of armies that barely reach brigade size…)
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DefMon considered that the spearhead is about 115 BTG and if they are at full strength that is around 100,000 men. At Kherson there should be 10,000 – 25,000 men. That is very little for an entire front considering that +50% are probably rear.
What counts here is Russians in holes who are supposed to take the hit and when they fold it falls like a house of cards and the rear pulls on the inflatable rings and staggers down towards the Dnieper immediately (Ukraine will surely not miss the chance to send up drones and film the big drowning day when the Russians realize that on every inflatable ring they bought, the seller gave a little pinprick as a bonus).
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The same on the southern front, I also believe that the units previously anchored there have taken monstrous losses and therefore largely have replacement troops, and there are no VDV, naval infantry, reconnaissance or Spetsnaz there either.
If they cut the bridge to Crimea or the Kerch bridge at the same time as Volnovakha is taken, it could get really lively there too 🙂
At Izyum they seem to have pulled away way too much so it will move over time but they have open retreat routes and can conduct their version of delaying action – dying a little slower than when they attack.
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Now, that does not say where Ukraine will get a decisive hole that they can widen but I mostly want to speculate that I think the probability of collapse is infinitely greater today than it was earlier in the war and we have still had Kiev’s involuntary marathon and the Kharkiv retreat which set the bar quite high.
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I think it is quite reasonable that it can become a race for freedom also on the southern front if Ukraine manages to advance in the right places. Right now the war-weariness is probably quite great among the Russians and if you feel you can’t win it is a pretty strong incentive to choose life.
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At Izyum, is Ukraine advancing towards the city of Izyum through the famous forest belt that has made entire armies disappear or is it from the south? Since the Russians can retreat eastward there is no encirclement to achieve but over time they probably want to take back all terrain west of the Oskil river and then continue eastward.
18:48
A long comment that got stuck in the filter, no obvious word that stands out, the man who had his home raided by the FBI is the first thing you check for 🙂
Are there any tips on new words that have been banned?
12:18
If you look at FIRMS, there are very few fires in Ukrainian territory and very many Russian-in-a-hole fires burning in red team’s area. It is very noticeable.
Go back a month and it was bright red even over Ukraine’s positions.
It is probably the Siversk – Bakhmut line that still gets some indirect fire.
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Those who think nothing is happening, this is definitely something happening, they have removed the Russians’ only force on the battlefield that worked somewhat and that the Ukrainians had difficulties with. The air force has probably tapered off earlier than that except maybe on the eastern front but over on the southern front and Kherson they certainly don’t darken the skies, and now after the accident in Crimea, even more protected birds.